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Shorter notices
SHORTER
UNITED
STATES
AGRlCULTURAL
NOTICES
POLICY
AND
WORLD
CEREAL
MARKETS
The OECD (Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development) have now supplemented their report on Agricultural Policy in the United States (reviewed in this journal, Vol. 1, p. 310, 1974) by one on Recent Developments in United States Agricultural Policies, which was finalised in April 1976 and published in the fall of that year. This new report brings up to date the legislative and administrative changes in US price support mechanisms and in particular the effects of the Agriculture and Consumer Protection Act 1973 which is generally ‘denoted’ as the introducer of a ‘free market farm policy’ so that ‘The surplus stocks, the release of which had kept world markets fairly stable for two decades, no longer exist’. The report examines the impact of this policy change both on the US farmer and consumer and on world prices. (About half the world total of cereals exported come from the USA and developing countries take about two-fifths of the world total of cereal imports.) Current world market ‘conditions are so unstable that each year price levels may be influenced by. . a depressed harvest in any major producing area of the world.’ The OECD report does not deal with the causes of harvest variations. Recent studies of weather uncertainty or possible climatic changes do not suggest a prospective stabilisation of yields/ha, although the upward technological yield trend seems to be slowing down. The world markets seem to be facing ‘persistent conditions of instability’ unless the major cereal trading countries can and do cooperate in controlling such instability. However, little progress seems to have been made, to this reviewer’s knowledge, since the first abortive meeting of wheat exporting countries in 193 1.
FIELD
DATA
COLLECTION
IN DEVELOPING
COUNTRIES
The agricultural administrator often finds that he needs more information about the felt needs of a rural population or about the feasibility and local acceptability of an actual or proposed policy decision by central government. In developed countries 149 Agricultural Administration Printed in Great Britain
(4) (1977)-O
Applied
Science
Publishers
Ltd,
England,
1977
150
SHORTER
NOTICES
there are usually adequate statistics (e.g. about the incidence of mastitis in milking cows) and well-organised andvocal farmers’ organisations at both national and local level. Decisions about feasibility and acceptability of a specific policy have therefore a relatively well-informed base. In developing countries such technical statistics and organised representative farming opinion may be, and usually are, lacking. It is therefore necessary or helpful to make national or local field surveys, mainly by interviews on the spot. In late 1974 the Agricultural Development Council (ADC) held a seminar on this subject in Singapore. Its report has now been published (Field Data Collection in Developing Countries: Experiences in Asia, ADC Seminar Report No. 10, June 1976. ADC, 1290 Avenue of the Americas, New York, N.Y. 10019, USA). The seminar divided into five groups and prepared (and discussed) reports on (i) Research design and organisation; (ii) Sampling; (iii) Choice and development of data collection procedure; (iv) Field management (recruitment of investigators, etc.) and (v) IntensivestudiesThereport as a whole provides thought provoking and informative reading and emphasises the expanding role of the social scientist whose findings ‘are taken seriously. . . by men of practical affairs and’ ‘often become the grounds for policy decisions. . .‘.
RURAL
DEVELOPMENT
In 1968 an International Seminar on Change in Agriculture was organised by the Faculty of Agriculture and Food at Reading University, England. This led, inter alia, to further joint research programmes, particularly on organisation, management and institutions for the implementation of agricultural development. The results of this research by Reading University and the Overseas Development Institute (ODI), complemented by many papers from other sources, were presented at the Second Seminar on Change in Agriculture in 1974 at Reading. The proceedings of this 1974 meeting have been published as Policy andpractice in Rural Development (Edited by Hunter, Guy, Bunting, A.H. and Bottrall, Anthony, 1976. Croom Helm for ODI, 514.95, pp. 506). The book is divided into seven parts: I, Introductory Chapters; II, Effects of Political Decision on Organisation; III, Technical, Environmental and Economic Factors; IV, The Farming lCommunity; V, The Commercial Functions; VI, Administration; VII, Final Session and Comments. The title of each part is largely self-explanatory. The administrator may be tempted to start with Part VI, but would be well advised to first read two chapters, by Bunting and Hunter respectively, in Part I-because they set the scene-and finally read the closing addresses (Part VII) of these two speakers. The book’s message is well summarised on pp. 503-6. The seminar ‘revealed the state of disarray in our [administrative and institutional] equipment. . for the varied and changing tasks which development imposes’, and
SHORTER
151
NOTICES
after a thumb-nail look at this point, and suggesting some remedies, concludes that ‘development is not in essence an administrative system, although it has to be administered. It would be more true to say that we are concerned with a system (which must be expert) to support and guide the growth and energies and eventual expertise of the farming community itself, from which alone the driving forces and achievements of (rural) development arise’.
URBANIC
AND
AGRICULTURAL
USE OF LAND
The members of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) are all developed, industrialised countries in Western Europe, North America and Australasia, and include Japan. All these countries face, in various degrees, the problem of reconciling the land needs of agriculture with the actual or potential demands of competing land uses, e.g. forestry, interior water reservoirs and urbanic uses. Urbanic use includes (a) urbanisation per se, (b) industry, (c) communication systems and (d) recreation areas. The consumption for (a) may be exceeded by the total of(b), (c) and (d). The report of the OECD on Lund Use Policies and Agriculture (OECD, 2 rue Andre Pascal, 75775 Paris) examines and, where practicable, quantifies the existing and potential land uses of member countries. It points out that, until recently, most countries regarded agricultural land as an inexhaustible reserve for meeting, e.g. the needs of cities and communication networks. In fact, it is a non-renewable resource and a consumable good ‘since when it is earmarked for.. buildings, roads, etc.’ it cannot be used for agriculture because ‘economic expansion in fact eats up land’. And the food producing capacity of land so consumed is often, for various technical reasons, markedly above average. Each country should have, and most do have, therefore, a land use policy. Such policies are usually based on central or local governmental and legally enforceable zoning or classification of land for particular purposes, e.g. farming, factories or recreation. Examples are given. Then their administration is outlined. Such policies and their execution, it is pointed out, usually involve attempts to reconcile conflicting interests and to integrate the administrative activities of several ministries or local authorities.
WORLD
TRENDS
IN FOOD
SUPPLY
AND
DEMAND
Another recent publication of the OECD examines world agricultural prospects for the next ten or fifteen years. Part I of this report analyses the main factors bearing on supply and demand, as well as their inter-relationships. Part II is a regional analysis and Part III a commodity analysis. The general conclusion is that the international instability of agricultural markets could get worse if adequate counter-measures are
152
SHORTER
NOTICES
not taken. Stock-piling policies, more relialble economic information, and sale and purchase contracts covering several years are amongst the ways in which, it is suggested, market instability might be countered. The report emphasises, however, that the requirements of developing countries will not be satisfied unless they can succeed in growing, on their own farms, an increased proportion of their needs. A combined effort by such countries and the rich countries is called for. (Study oj Trends in World Supply and Demand oj’Major Agricultural Commodities. 349 pp., OECD, Paris, $13.50.)
UNITED
STATES
AGRlCULTURAL
NOTICES
POLICY
AND
WORLD
CEREAL
MARKETS
The OECD (Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development) have now supplemented their report on Agricultural Policy in the United States (reviewed in this journal, Vol. 1, p. 310, 1974) by one on Recent Developments in United States Agricultural Policies, which was finalised in April 1976 and published in the fall of that year. This new report brings up to date the legislative and administrative changes in US price support mechanisms and in particular the effects of the Agriculture and Consumer Protection Act 1973 which is generally ‘denoted’ as the introducer of a ‘free market farm policy’ so that ‘The surplus stocks, the release of which had kept world markets fairly stable for two decades, no longer exist’. The report examines the impact of this policy change both on the US farmer and consumer and on world prices. (About half the world total of cereals exported come from the USA and developing countries take about two-fifths of the world total of cereal imports.) Current world market ‘conditions are so unstable that each year price levels may be influenced by. . a depressed harvest in any major producing area of the world.’ The OECD report does not deal with the causes of harvest variations. Recent studies of weather uncertainty or possible climatic changes do not suggest a prospective stabilisation of yields/ha, although the upward technological yield trend seems to be slowing down. The world markets seem to be facing ‘persistent conditions of instability’ unless the major cereal trading countries can and do cooperate in controlling such instability. However, little progress seems to have been made, to this reviewer’s knowledge, since the first abortive meeting of wheat exporting countries in 193 1.
FIELD
DATA
COLLECTION
IN DEVELOPING
COUNTRIES
The agricultural administrator often finds that he needs more information about the felt needs of a rural population or about the feasibility and local acceptability of an actual or proposed policy decision by central government. In developed countries 149 Agricultural Administration Printed in Great Britain
(4) (1977)-O
Applied
Science
Publishers
Ltd,
England,
1977
150
SHORTER
NOTICES
there are usually adequate statistics (e.g. about the incidence of mastitis in milking cows) and well-organised andvocal farmers’ organisations at both national and local level. Decisions about feasibility and acceptability of a specific policy have therefore a relatively well-informed base. In developing countries such technical statistics and organised representative farming opinion may be, and usually are, lacking. It is therefore necessary or helpful to make national or local field surveys, mainly by interviews on the spot. In late 1974 the Agricultural Development Council (ADC) held a seminar on this subject in Singapore. Its report has now been published (Field Data Collection in Developing Countries: Experiences in Asia, ADC Seminar Report No. 10, June 1976. ADC, 1290 Avenue of the Americas, New York, N.Y. 10019, USA). The seminar divided into five groups and prepared (and discussed) reports on (i) Research design and organisation; (ii) Sampling; (iii) Choice and development of data collection procedure; (iv) Field management (recruitment of investigators, etc.) and (v) IntensivestudiesThereport as a whole provides thought provoking and informative reading and emphasises the expanding role of the social scientist whose findings ‘are taken seriously. . . by men of practical affairs and’ ‘often become the grounds for policy decisions. . .‘.
RURAL
DEVELOPMENT
In 1968 an International Seminar on Change in Agriculture was organised by the Faculty of Agriculture and Food at Reading University, England. This led, inter alia, to further joint research programmes, particularly on organisation, management and institutions for the implementation of agricultural development. The results of this research by Reading University and the Overseas Development Institute (ODI), complemented by many papers from other sources, were presented at the Second Seminar on Change in Agriculture in 1974 at Reading. The proceedings of this 1974 meeting have been published as Policy andpractice in Rural Development (Edited by Hunter, Guy, Bunting, A.H. and Bottrall, Anthony, 1976. Croom Helm for ODI, 514.95, pp. 506). The book is divided into seven parts: I, Introductory Chapters; II, Effects of Political Decision on Organisation; III, Technical, Environmental and Economic Factors; IV, The Farming lCommunity; V, The Commercial Functions; VI, Administration; VII, Final Session and Comments. The title of each part is largely self-explanatory. The administrator may be tempted to start with Part VI, but would be well advised to first read two chapters, by Bunting and Hunter respectively, in Part I-because they set the scene-and finally read the closing addresses (Part VII) of these two speakers. The book’s message is well summarised on pp. 503-6. The seminar ‘revealed the state of disarray in our [administrative and institutional] equipment. . for the varied and changing tasks which development imposes’, and
SHORTER
151
NOTICES
after a thumb-nail look at this point, and suggesting some remedies, concludes that ‘development is not in essence an administrative system, although it has to be administered. It would be more true to say that we are concerned with a system (which must be expert) to support and guide the growth and energies and eventual expertise of the farming community itself, from which alone the driving forces and achievements of (rural) development arise’.
URBANIC
AND
AGRICULTURAL
USE OF LAND
The members of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) are all developed, industrialised countries in Western Europe, North America and Australasia, and include Japan. All these countries face, in various degrees, the problem of reconciling the land needs of agriculture with the actual or potential demands of competing land uses, e.g. forestry, interior water reservoirs and urbanic uses. Urbanic use includes (a) urbanisation per se, (b) industry, (c) communication systems and (d) recreation areas. The consumption for (a) may be exceeded by the total of(b), (c) and (d). The report of the OECD on Lund Use Policies and Agriculture (OECD, 2 rue Andre Pascal, 75775 Paris) examines and, where practicable, quantifies the existing and potential land uses of member countries. It points out that, until recently, most countries regarded agricultural land as an inexhaustible reserve for meeting, e.g. the needs of cities and communication networks. In fact, it is a non-renewable resource and a consumable good ‘since when it is earmarked for.. buildings, roads, etc.’ it cannot be used for agriculture because ‘economic expansion in fact eats up land’. And the food producing capacity of land so consumed is often, for various technical reasons, markedly above average. Each country should have, and most do have, therefore, a land use policy. Such policies are usually based on central or local governmental and legally enforceable zoning or classification of land for particular purposes, e.g. farming, factories or recreation. Examples are given. Then their administration is outlined. Such policies and their execution, it is pointed out, usually involve attempts to reconcile conflicting interests and to integrate the administrative activities of several ministries or local authorities.
WORLD
TRENDS
IN FOOD
SUPPLY
AND
DEMAND
Another recent publication of the OECD examines world agricultural prospects for the next ten or fifteen years. Part I of this report analyses the main factors bearing on supply and demand, as well as their inter-relationships. Part II is a regional analysis and Part III a commodity analysis. The general conclusion is that the international instability of agricultural markets could get worse if adequate counter-measures are
152
SHORTER
NOTICES
not taken. Stock-piling policies, more relialble economic information, and sale and purchase contracts covering several years are amongst the ways in which, it is suggested, market instability might be countered. The report emphasises, however, that the requirements of developing countries will not be satisfied unless they can succeed in growing, on their own farms, an increased proportion of their needs. A combined effort by such countries and the rich countries is called for. (Study oj Trends in World Supply and Demand oj’Major Agricultural Commodities. 349 pp., OECD, Paris, $13.50.)