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Simulation and mathematical treatment of paternity data
186
The forensic-chemically in following table:
detected
fatal poisonings
in 1974 are presented
~____.___ Underlying cause of death by poisoning
Class of death Accident Suicide
Alcohol Drug Carbon monoxide Anticholinesterase Other NUD
285 32 41
Total
361
1 2
NUD _-
144 24 13 10
24 3
191
27
Total ____..____ 285 200 68 13 11 2 579
The alcohol poisonings have noticeably increased since 1973. In drug poisonings psychopharmaca cases have continuously increased. The number of cases with barbiturate, bromoureide and meprobamate has decreased. An increase is noticeable in the number of methaqualone, dextropropoxyphene, chlorprothixene and doxepin cases. Cases with levomepromazine increased in 1975 and 1976. Benzodiazepines and phenothiazines are detected in numerous cases. The carbon monoxide poisonings increased noticeably in 1971. The anticholinesterase poisonings have continuously decreased since a peak in 1958. Kataja, J. M. (Tampere
Central Hospital,
SIMULATION AND MATHEMATICAL
Tampere,
TREATMENT
Finland)
OF PATERNITY
DATA
Paternity data denotes in medicolegal context some set of observations from the mother, from the child and from one or more men called presumptive fathers. The physician’s statement based on that data, should give some measure of paternity for each man involved. The statement may be given as an index, as posterior probability or in verbal form. The paternity index used most commonly is calculated as the probability ratio of observed data set in families compared with a constellation of mother, child and nonfather. The method is known as the Essen-MBller method or as the sequential analysis. Simulation may be used to obtain more accurate family and non-family data in connection with single gene mediated independent observations such . as blood group determinations and tissue typing. This has been done for 14 blood groups using the Finnish and the German gene frequencies. Based on simulation of 20 000 families and 20 000 non-family constellations new and more accurate distributions of paternity measures are obtained and presented. In the studies presented here a comprehensive set of notations and theoretical derivations are developed commencing with the results given by Walter. The tables needed in using the blood groups are calculated based on
187
the rules of inheritance and the gene frequencies. As one result a strict functional relationship is found between the proportion of potential fathers and the logarithms of paternity indices, which results in the normalization of paternity indices. Krantz, P. and Voigt, G. E. (Department Lund, Lund, Sweden)
of Forensic
Medicine,
University
of
FATAL PASSENGER CAR ACCIDENTS IN SWEDEN 1975
By courtesy of the police, the Swedish Road Safety Office and all Swedish departments of forensic medicine, it has been possible to collect data on all accidents in which passenger car occupants have been killed. The material consists of approximately 500 accidents with about 600 casualties. The paper will give the preliminary results concerning the effect of the compulsory seat belt use, the number of intoxicated drivers and accidents caused by age depending behaviour, of car drivers. Kringsholm, B., Thomsen, J. L. and Henningsen, K. (Institute Medicine, University-of Copenhagen, Copenhagen, Denmark) DETECTION OF Y-CHROMOSOMES
of Forensic
IN BLOOD STAINS AND HAIRS
Sex determination of blood stains in forensic medicine has become easy and more reliable since the development of the method of detecting Ychromosomes in interphase nuclei using fluorescent stains. The existence of false negative males (due to small Y-chromosomes) and the possibility of false positive females necessitate investigation of the frequency of such persons and of the normal variation in the number of Y-body positive cells. In blind trials we have examined fresh blood smears from 217 persons and found one false negative among 128 males. Otherwise there was a marked difference between lowest male count (32%) and highest female count (4%). Blood stains on glass from one male and one female were followed in blind trials during 64 weeks and a safe differentiation was made until 6 weeks; an acceptable differentiation hereafter. In hairs from 131 persons a similar reliability of the method was demonstrated. So far we have been able to diagnose the sex in blind trials of 5 males and 3 females for 15 weeks. Lahti, R. A. (Department Helsinki, Finland) FATAL MOTOR-CYCLE
of Forensic
Medicine,
University
of Helsinki,
ACCIDENTS
A series of 175 fatal motor-cycle accidents in Finland in 1970 - 74 is presented. Of these, 122 were collisions and 53 single accidents. In both type of accident a typical combination was a young male driver with little or no driving experience and a powerful, fast motor-cycle. Drunken drivers were encountered in 17.7 per cent of the cases. Slight alcohol intoxication combined with high situational velocity plays a particular role in single accidents. Of the 243 motor-cycle riders, 181 died, 57 were injured and 5 were not injured. The relative distributions in collisions and single accidents were
The forensic-chemically in following table:
detected
fatal poisonings
in 1974 are presented
~____.___ Underlying cause of death by poisoning
Class of death Accident Suicide
Alcohol Drug Carbon monoxide Anticholinesterase Other NUD
285 32 41
Total
361
1 2
NUD _-
144 24 13 10
24 3
191
27
Total ____..____ 285 200 68 13 11 2 579
The alcohol poisonings have noticeably increased since 1973. In drug poisonings psychopharmaca cases have continuously increased. The number of cases with barbiturate, bromoureide and meprobamate has decreased. An increase is noticeable in the number of methaqualone, dextropropoxyphene, chlorprothixene and doxepin cases. Cases with levomepromazine increased in 1975 and 1976. Benzodiazepines and phenothiazines are detected in numerous cases. The carbon monoxide poisonings increased noticeably in 1971. The anticholinesterase poisonings have continuously decreased since a peak in 1958. Kataja, J. M. (Tampere
Central Hospital,
SIMULATION AND MATHEMATICAL
Tampere,
TREATMENT
Finland)
OF PATERNITY
DATA
Paternity data denotes in medicolegal context some set of observations from the mother, from the child and from one or more men called presumptive fathers. The physician’s statement based on that data, should give some measure of paternity for each man involved. The statement may be given as an index, as posterior probability or in verbal form. The paternity index used most commonly is calculated as the probability ratio of observed data set in families compared with a constellation of mother, child and nonfather. The method is known as the Essen-MBller method or as the sequential analysis. Simulation may be used to obtain more accurate family and non-family data in connection with single gene mediated independent observations such . as blood group determinations and tissue typing. This has been done for 14 blood groups using the Finnish and the German gene frequencies. Based on simulation of 20 000 families and 20 000 non-family constellations new and more accurate distributions of paternity measures are obtained and presented. In the studies presented here a comprehensive set of notations and theoretical derivations are developed commencing with the results given by Walter. The tables needed in using the blood groups are calculated based on
187
the rules of inheritance and the gene frequencies. As one result a strict functional relationship is found between the proportion of potential fathers and the logarithms of paternity indices, which results in the normalization of paternity indices. Krantz, P. and Voigt, G. E. (Department Lund, Lund, Sweden)
of Forensic
Medicine,
University
of
FATAL PASSENGER CAR ACCIDENTS IN SWEDEN 1975
By courtesy of the police, the Swedish Road Safety Office and all Swedish departments of forensic medicine, it has been possible to collect data on all accidents in which passenger car occupants have been killed. The material consists of approximately 500 accidents with about 600 casualties. The paper will give the preliminary results concerning the effect of the compulsory seat belt use, the number of intoxicated drivers and accidents caused by age depending behaviour, of car drivers. Kringsholm, B., Thomsen, J. L. and Henningsen, K. (Institute Medicine, University-of Copenhagen, Copenhagen, Denmark) DETECTION OF Y-CHROMOSOMES
of Forensic
IN BLOOD STAINS AND HAIRS
Sex determination of blood stains in forensic medicine has become easy and more reliable since the development of the method of detecting Ychromosomes in interphase nuclei using fluorescent stains. The existence of false negative males (due to small Y-chromosomes) and the possibility of false positive females necessitate investigation of the frequency of such persons and of the normal variation in the number of Y-body positive cells. In blind trials we have examined fresh blood smears from 217 persons and found one false negative among 128 males. Otherwise there was a marked difference between lowest male count (32%) and highest female count (4%). Blood stains on glass from one male and one female were followed in blind trials during 64 weeks and a safe differentiation was made until 6 weeks; an acceptable differentiation hereafter. In hairs from 131 persons a similar reliability of the method was demonstrated. So far we have been able to diagnose the sex in blind trials of 5 males and 3 females for 15 weeks. Lahti, R. A. (Department Helsinki, Finland) FATAL MOTOR-CYCLE
of Forensic
Medicine,
University
of Helsinki,
ACCIDENTS
A series of 175 fatal motor-cycle accidents in Finland in 1970 - 74 is presented. Of these, 122 were collisions and 53 single accidents. In both type of accident a typical combination was a young male driver with little or no driving experience and a powerful, fast motor-cycle. Drunken drivers were encountered in 17.7 per cent of the cases. Slight alcohol intoxication combined with high situational velocity plays a particular role in single accidents. Of the 243 motor-cycle riders, 181 died, 57 were injured and 5 were not injured. The relative distributions in collisions and single accidents were