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Simulation of Flood Control Water Reservoir in Conditions of Torrential Rains on the Catchment
Available online at www.sciencedirect.com
ScienceDirect Procedia Engineering 154 (2016) 1314 – 1318
12th International Conference on Hydroinformatics, HIC 2016
SIMULATION OF FLOOD CONTROL WATER RESERVOIR IN CONDITIONS OF TORRENTIAL RAINS ON THE CATCHMENT Belchikhina V.V.a, Ilinich V.V.a, Asaulyak I.F.a, Belolubtsev A.I.a a: Russian state agrarian university - Moscow agricultural academy named after K.A. Timiryazev, Pryanishnikov St., 19, Moscow, 127550, Russian.
Abstract
Every water reservoir must be ready to the control of catastrophic flood. The most dangerous situations can be on the catchments where torrential rains can have significant duration and intensity. Lead time of runoff forecast for dangerous flood depended on increase of rainfall intensity and time concentration maximum water discharge on the catchment. Some water reservoirs have enough significant catchments and sometimes the time concentration is more 5 days. Then we are obtaining possibility to use data of meteorological stations how predictors of floods. For example, catchment of Krasnodar water reservoir has large catchment and is located on the North Caucasus territory. Its climate is characterized by not-periodical storm rainfalls (sometimes after long drought). Consequently the main aim of the research was development of rules for water reservoir operation during floods in dependent on data of meteorological stations about precipitation. The main problems were next: clarification of time concentration maximum water discharge on the catchment; the choice of meteorological stations how predictors of floods; development of rules for water reservoir operation during floods; the checking of rules for water reservoir operation during floods relative to different combinations of maximum flood discharges and previous data of meteorological stations about precipitation. It should be noted that data of locator stations are not used for forecasts of precipitation and runoff on the today moment of research because their network is not dense enough and there are frequent situations when clouds give only dry thunder without rain. © 2016 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license © 2016 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd. (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/). Peer-reviewunder under responsibility of the organizing committee of 2016 HIC 2016. Peer-review responsibility of the organizing committee of HIC Key words: precipitation, climatic changes, runoff, water reservoir;
1877-7058 © 2016 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license
(http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/). Peer-review under responsibility of the organizing committee of HIC 2016
doi:10.1016/j.proeng.2016.07.473
V.V. Belchikhina et al. / Procedia Engineering 154 (2016) 1314 – 1318
1. Introduction Simulation of flood control of water reservoir helps to make decisions relative to safe regulations of reservoir levels and relative to flow discharges downstream. Predictions of flood runoff on base of the future torrential rain is not enough accurate. They have errors because of conditions of flow routing on the catchment and along river and small amount of meteorological stations [1]. Accordingly, the Krasnodar water reservoir was chosen by object research, here rain floods have the fast process forming. The reservoir is located in the southern part of the Russia (North Caucuses) on the Kuban River (fig1). A significant part of the river basin is occupied by mountain territory and therefore a time of concentration of maximum water discharges is small. The river can have dangerous rain-ice floods during summer period. Inundations can occur during storm rains only, the melting of glaciers did not influence significantly on increasing of the river runoff [2].
Fig. 1. Map of study object. The main functions of the water reservoir are irrigation and flood control. The regime of precipitation, the river water regime and regime of consumption for irrigation are similar. [3]. Therefore the main difficulty of operation by water reservoir consists in next: different situations can take place in same internal year interval (t) with equal probability - disaster catastrophic flood and water deficit during dry summer. So we have to free part of useful capacity of water reservoir in the first case but we have to keep full capacity for water storage in second case. Accordingly there is necessary of the development of rules for water reservoir operation to take for consideration of forecasting of depth precipitation and flood runoff. 2. Materials and methods The today rules of flow regulation by Krasnodar water reservoir are represented by dispatcher graph (fig.2) [4].The graph defines water consumption in dependence on water capacity of the reservoir to specific moment. The rules not envisage possibility of level reduce of the reservoir before torrential floods during spring and summer (months March - August according to graph of fig.2). However such reduce of level can almost exclude possibility of inundation during disaster floods.
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V.V. Belchikhina et al. / Procedia Engineering 154 (2016) 1314 – 1318
Fig.2. Dispatcher graph for Krasnodar water reservoir. Analyses of correlative dependences between volume of floods and depth of precipitation on different meteorological stations of river Kuban has showed that dependence has been greatest between volumes of floods and depth precipitation on meteorological stations of cities: Krasnodar, Armavir, Min. Vody (correlative coefficients 0,76; 0,72 and 0,78 accordingly). Unfortunately all forecasting models of runoff (type of “prediction of precipitation -prediction runoff”) which were tested relative to catchment of the Krasnodar reservoir have not gave satisfied results [1,5]. The possible cause of that is small amount of meteorological stations on the catchment. It is necessary notice that usually atmospheric fronts are moved on North Caucuses from west or north-west to the Caucuses mountains trough cities Krasnodar, Armavir and Min. Vody [6]. So precipitation of the cities can be good predictors of runoff to Krasnodar water reservoir. The study has confirmed that the middle time concentration of maximum of runoff to the reservoir relative to maximum precipitation on meteorological stations Armavir and Min. Vody is equal for approximately 2 days [7]. Therefore, if we can have enough robust prediction of precipitation amount on the 3 days - we can to make decisions relative to reduce of water level of reservoir for accumulation of flood share in the useful capacity during
1317
V.V. Belchikhina et al. / Procedia Engineering 154 (2016) 1314 – 1318
begin flood on forthcoming 5 days. Rainfall forecast for 3 days was obtained from Russian scientific-production Centre "Map Maker", which is a developer and supplier of professional software products in the field of Hydrometeorology in Russia [8]. So, the rules of flow regulation by the reservoir were changed relative to dispatcher graph (fig.2) within upper zone (above top level of full capacity). Storage of the reservoir was reduced lower useful capacity until beginning flood for the forthcoming 5 days if the forecast precipitation exceeded 20 mm. A volume of reducing not must be more difference between real runoff and plan of consumption on the moment of taking decision. The new rules of reservoir operation were checked on the base of observation for last significant floods. An example of flood control relative to reservoir storages is represented on fig. 3. 2200
Volume,mlmcubm
2100 2000 1900 1800
traditionalrules
1700 newrules 1600 1500 0
5
10
15
20
Daysofflood Fig. 3. Storages of the water reservoir operation during catastrophic flood. 1 – according to traditional rules of the water reservoir operation; 2 – according to new rules. We can see on fig.3 that new rules allowed reduce the reservoir storages during disaster flood. 3. Conclusions The short-term forecast of precipitation may be used successfully for the water reservoir operation during floods when we can’t use the forecast models of type “precipitation - runoff” because of small amount of meteorological stations on the river basins Acknowledgment The presented work has been made in the frames of scientific State Russian Contract ʋ 9-/2-2-2012 of Russian Hydrometeorological Center under management of director Vilfand R.M. Special thanks goes to Borsh S.V. (department head of hydrological forecasts) for the given data observations and consultations. References [1] S.V. Borsch, Y.A. Simonov. Operational system of short-term hydrological forecasts of water discharges for the Kuban basin rivers. Proceedings of the Russian Hydrometeorological Center Issue 349. - 2014. - P. 63-87. (Rus).
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[2] S.V. Borsch, Y.A. Simonov, A.V. Khristoforov. Flood forecasting and early warning system for rivers of the Black sea shore of Caucasian region and the Kuban river basin. . Proceedings of the Russian Hydrometeorological Center. Issue 356 (Special). - 2014. - P. 63-87. (Rus). [3] Ilinich V.V. Search of Anti-Accident Function for Flood Flow Management by Water Reservoir // V.V. Ilinich. – Proceedings of 7-th International Conference on Hydroinformatics. – Nica. – 2006. – p. 1025 -1031. [4] Rules of use of water resources of the Krasnodar reservoir. Krasnodar - 2012.- P.193. (Rus). [5] Ilinich V.V., Larina T.D. Experience of flood modeling for the mountain Caucasus fundamental science and technology III”, Vol. 3, North Charleston, SC, USA 29406, (2014) pp. 114 - 117. [6] Larina T.D. “Analysis of dependence between the runoff precipitations on meteorological stations on the Kuban river catchment”. Book of proceedings: ”Technologiesand developments in environmental engineering” . Moscow.; (2009), pp. 97-101. (Rus). [7] Ilinich V.V. Flow control by water reservoir in conditions of torrential floods. Proceedings of 11th International Conference on Hydroinformatics, ʋ 1443, HIC 2014, New York City, USA, pp. 1 - 7. [8] https://mapmakers.ru/
ScienceDirect Procedia Engineering 154 (2016) 1314 – 1318
12th International Conference on Hydroinformatics, HIC 2016
SIMULATION OF FLOOD CONTROL WATER RESERVOIR IN CONDITIONS OF TORRENTIAL RAINS ON THE CATCHMENT Belchikhina V.V.a, Ilinich V.V.a, Asaulyak I.F.a, Belolubtsev A.I.a a: Russian state agrarian university - Moscow agricultural academy named after K.A. Timiryazev, Pryanishnikov St., 19, Moscow, 127550, Russian.
Abstract
Every water reservoir must be ready to the control of catastrophic flood. The most dangerous situations can be on the catchments where torrential rains can have significant duration and intensity. Lead time of runoff forecast for dangerous flood depended on increase of rainfall intensity and time concentration maximum water discharge on the catchment. Some water reservoirs have enough significant catchments and sometimes the time concentration is more 5 days. Then we are obtaining possibility to use data of meteorological stations how predictors of floods. For example, catchment of Krasnodar water reservoir has large catchment and is located on the North Caucasus territory. Its climate is characterized by not-periodical storm rainfalls (sometimes after long drought). Consequently the main aim of the research was development of rules for water reservoir operation during floods in dependent on data of meteorological stations about precipitation. The main problems were next: clarification of time concentration maximum water discharge on the catchment; the choice of meteorological stations how predictors of floods; development of rules for water reservoir operation during floods; the checking of rules for water reservoir operation during floods relative to different combinations of maximum flood discharges and previous data of meteorological stations about precipitation. It should be noted that data of locator stations are not used for forecasts of precipitation and runoff on the today moment of research because their network is not dense enough and there are frequent situations when clouds give only dry thunder without rain. © 2016 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license © 2016 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd. (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/). Peer-reviewunder under responsibility of the organizing committee of 2016 HIC 2016. Peer-review responsibility of the organizing committee of HIC Key words: precipitation, climatic changes, runoff, water reservoir;
1877-7058 © 2016 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license
(http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/). Peer-review under responsibility of the organizing committee of HIC 2016
doi:10.1016/j.proeng.2016.07.473
V.V. Belchikhina et al. / Procedia Engineering 154 (2016) 1314 – 1318
1. Introduction Simulation of flood control of water reservoir helps to make decisions relative to safe regulations of reservoir levels and relative to flow discharges downstream. Predictions of flood runoff on base of the future torrential rain is not enough accurate. They have errors because of conditions of flow routing on the catchment and along river and small amount of meteorological stations [1]. Accordingly, the Krasnodar water reservoir was chosen by object research, here rain floods have the fast process forming. The reservoir is located in the southern part of the Russia (North Caucuses) on the Kuban River (fig1). A significant part of the river basin is occupied by mountain territory and therefore a time of concentration of maximum water discharges is small. The river can have dangerous rain-ice floods during summer period. Inundations can occur during storm rains only, the melting of glaciers did not influence significantly on increasing of the river runoff [2].
Fig. 1. Map of study object. The main functions of the water reservoir are irrigation and flood control. The regime of precipitation, the river water regime and regime of consumption for irrigation are similar. [3]. Therefore the main difficulty of operation by water reservoir consists in next: different situations can take place in same internal year interval (t) with equal probability - disaster catastrophic flood and water deficit during dry summer. So we have to free part of useful capacity of water reservoir in the first case but we have to keep full capacity for water storage in second case. Accordingly there is necessary of the development of rules for water reservoir operation to take for consideration of forecasting of depth precipitation and flood runoff. 2. Materials and methods The today rules of flow regulation by Krasnodar water reservoir are represented by dispatcher graph (fig.2) [4].The graph defines water consumption in dependence on water capacity of the reservoir to specific moment. The rules not envisage possibility of level reduce of the reservoir before torrential floods during spring and summer (months March - August according to graph of fig.2). However such reduce of level can almost exclude possibility of inundation during disaster floods.
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V.V. Belchikhina et al. / Procedia Engineering 154 (2016) 1314 – 1318
Fig.2. Dispatcher graph for Krasnodar water reservoir. Analyses of correlative dependences between volume of floods and depth of precipitation on different meteorological stations of river Kuban has showed that dependence has been greatest between volumes of floods and depth precipitation on meteorological stations of cities: Krasnodar, Armavir, Min. Vody (correlative coefficients 0,76; 0,72 and 0,78 accordingly). Unfortunately all forecasting models of runoff (type of “prediction of precipitation -prediction runoff”) which were tested relative to catchment of the Krasnodar reservoir have not gave satisfied results [1,5]. The possible cause of that is small amount of meteorological stations on the catchment. It is necessary notice that usually atmospheric fronts are moved on North Caucuses from west or north-west to the Caucuses mountains trough cities Krasnodar, Armavir and Min. Vody [6]. So precipitation of the cities can be good predictors of runoff to Krasnodar water reservoir. The study has confirmed that the middle time concentration of maximum of runoff to the reservoir relative to maximum precipitation on meteorological stations Armavir and Min. Vody is equal for approximately 2 days [7]. Therefore, if we can have enough robust prediction of precipitation amount on the 3 days - we can to make decisions relative to reduce of water level of reservoir for accumulation of flood share in the useful capacity during
1317
V.V. Belchikhina et al. / Procedia Engineering 154 (2016) 1314 – 1318
begin flood on forthcoming 5 days. Rainfall forecast for 3 days was obtained from Russian scientific-production Centre "Map Maker", which is a developer and supplier of professional software products in the field of Hydrometeorology in Russia [8]. So, the rules of flow regulation by the reservoir were changed relative to dispatcher graph (fig.2) within upper zone (above top level of full capacity). Storage of the reservoir was reduced lower useful capacity until beginning flood for the forthcoming 5 days if the forecast precipitation exceeded 20 mm. A volume of reducing not must be more difference between real runoff and plan of consumption on the moment of taking decision. The new rules of reservoir operation were checked on the base of observation for last significant floods. An example of flood control relative to reservoir storages is represented on fig. 3. 2200
Volume,mlmcubm
2100 2000 1900 1800
traditionalrules
1700 newrules 1600 1500 0
5
10
15
20
Daysofflood Fig. 3. Storages of the water reservoir operation during catastrophic flood. 1 – according to traditional rules of the water reservoir operation; 2 – according to new rules. We can see on fig.3 that new rules allowed reduce the reservoir storages during disaster flood. 3. Conclusions The short-term forecast of precipitation may be used successfully for the water reservoir operation during floods when we can’t use the forecast models of type “precipitation - runoff” because of small amount of meteorological stations on the river basins Acknowledgment The presented work has been made in the frames of scientific State Russian Contract ʋ 9-/2-2-2012 of Russian Hydrometeorological Center under management of director Vilfand R.M. Special thanks goes to Borsh S.V. (department head of hydrological forecasts) for the given data observations and consultations. References [1] S.V. Borsch, Y.A. Simonov. Operational system of short-term hydrological forecasts of water discharges for the Kuban basin rivers. Proceedings of the Russian Hydrometeorological Center Issue 349. - 2014. - P. 63-87. (Rus).
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[2] S.V. Borsch, Y.A. Simonov, A.V. Khristoforov. Flood forecasting and early warning system for rivers of the Black sea shore of Caucasian region and the Kuban river basin. . Proceedings of the Russian Hydrometeorological Center. Issue 356 (Special). - 2014. - P. 63-87. (Rus). [3] Ilinich V.V. Search of Anti-Accident Function for Flood Flow Management by Water Reservoir // V.V. Ilinich. – Proceedings of 7-th International Conference on Hydroinformatics. – Nica. – 2006. – p. 1025 -1031. [4] Rules of use of water resources of the Krasnodar reservoir. Krasnodar - 2012.- P.193. (Rus). [5] Ilinich V.V., Larina T.D. Experience of flood modeling for the mountain Caucasus fundamental science and technology III”, Vol. 3, North Charleston, SC, USA 29406, (2014) pp. 114 - 117. [6] Larina T.D. “Analysis of dependence between the runoff precipitations on meteorological stations on the Kuban river catchment”. Book of proceedings: ”Technologiesand developments in environmental engineering” . Moscow.; (2009), pp. 97-101. (Rus). [7] Ilinich V.V. Flow control by water reservoir in conditions of torrential floods. Proceedings of 11th International Conference on Hydroinformatics, ʋ 1443, HIC 2014, New York City, USA, pp. 1 - 7. [8] https://mapmakers.ru/