Single junction photovoltaic cell and sub-modules in optimization of solar farms

Single junction photovoltaic cell and sub-modules in optimization of solar farms

Available online at www.sciencedirect.com Available online at www.sciencedirect.com ScienceDirect ScienceDirect Procedia Computer Science 00 (2019) ...

1MB Sizes 0 Downloads 16 Views

Available online at www.sciencedirect.com Available online at www.sciencedirect.com

ScienceDirect ScienceDirect

Procedia Computer Science 00 (2019) 000–000 Available online at www.sciencedirect.com Procedia Computer Science 00 (2019) 000–000

ScienceDirect

www.elsevier.com/locate/procedia www.elsevier.com/locate/procedia

Procedia Computer Science 158 (2019) 466–473

3rd World Conference on Technology, Innovation and Entrepreneurship (WOCTINE) 3rd World Conference on Technology, Innovation and Entrepreneurship (WOCTINE)

Single junction photovoltaic cell and sub-modules in optimization of Single junction photovoltaic cell and sub-modules in optimization of solar farms solar farms Lutfu S.Suaaa , Figen Balob,* Lutfu S.Sua , Figen Balob,*

a Assoc. Prof. of Industrial Engineering, Elazığ and 23000,Turkey Assoc. Prof. of Industrial Engineering, and 23000,Turkey Prof. aFırat University,Industrial Engineering Elazığ Dept, Elazığ and 23000,Turkey b Prof. Fırat University,Industrial Engineering Dept, Elazığ and 23000,Turkey b

Abstract Abstract Turkey has a great potential in terms of renewable energy sources. Particularly, this potential comes to the fore in solar energy. Turkey hastoa the great in and terms of renewable energy sources. Particularly, this potential comes sunshine to the fore in solar energy. Compared restpotential of Europe other countries worldwide, Turkey has a very large level of annual period. One of the Compared to the resttoofproduce Europe electricity and other countries Turkey hasisa very annual direct sunshine period. One of the main elements used from solarworldwide, energy in solar farms solar large cells.level Theyofproduce current by converting main elements useddirectly to produce solar solar farms solaroutput, cells. They produce current by converting the solar radiation ontoelectricity the solar from energy. In energy order toinincrease the is power several solar direct cells are connected to each the solar radiation solar energy. In order to increase power the output, solar cells are connected to each other in parallel ordirectly in seriesonto andthe mounted on a surface. This structurethe is called solarseveral cell module or photovoltaic module. If other in parallel or in series mounted on a surface. structure is called the solar cell of module or photovoltaic If necessary, these modules canand be connected to each other This in series or parallel, to create a series photovoltaic. For highmodule. efficiency necessary, these modules can be connected each other inand series or parallel, to create a series of photovoltaic. For high efficiency photovoltaic cycle, it is necessary to improvetothe structural electrical properties of the material to optimize the forbidden energy photovoltaic is necessary to improve the structural and electrical properties ofInthe materialthe to optimize energy range and to cycle, use theit most appropriate combination in the choice of the heterocline. addition, fact that the forbidden selected material rangebeand to use the most appropriate of theand heterocline. In addition, fact thattothe material can produced economically at largecombination scale is oneinofthe thechoice conditions it is desired that the the sensitivity theselected environment is can be produced large scale is one the types conditions andcells it isindesired that the sensitivity the environment is considered duringeconomically the use of thisatmaterial. There are of many of solar the market. Recently, 3rd to generation solar cells considered during the usehave of this material. There types solar cells incell, the the market. Recently,parameters 3rd generation solar cells from different materials taken their place inare themany market. In aofphotovoltaic key operating are efficiency, from different materials have taken their place in the market. In astudy’s photovoltaic the key operating parameters are efficiency, area, fill factor, and current-voltage (I-V) characteristics. This aim iscell, determining the photovoltaic performance and area, fill factor, andcells current-voltage characteristics. Thistostudy’s aim is parameters. determining the photovoltaic performance and comparing the solar fabricated in(I-V) different types according key operating comparing the solar cells fabricated in different types according to key operating parameters. © 2019 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier B.V. © 2019 Published Elsevier B.V. © 2019 The The Authors. Author(s). Publishedbyby B.V. committee of the 3rd World Conference on Technology, Innovation and Peer-review under responsibility of Elsevier the scientific Peer-review under responsibility of the scientific committee of the 3rd World Conference on Technology, Innovation and Peer-review under responsibility of the scientific committee of the 3rd World Conference on Technology, Innovation and Entrepreneurship Entrepreneurship Entrepreneurship Keywords: Photovoltaic, Solar cell, Solar energy, Renewable Energy, Data Analysis Keywords: Photovoltaic, Solar cell, Solar energy, Renewable Energy, Data Analysis *Corresponding author. Phone: +90 (424)237-0000/5646 E-mail address: [email protected] (F. Balo). *Corresponding author. Phone: +90 (424)237-0000/5646 E-mail address: [email protected] (F. Balo).

1877-0509 © 2019 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier B.V. 1877-0509 2019responsibility The Author(s). Published bycommittee Elsevier B.V. Peer-review©under of the scientific of the 3rd World Conference on Technology, Innovation and Entrepreneurship Peer-review under responsibility of the scientific committee of the 3rd World Conference on Technology, Innovation and Entrepreneurship

1877-0509 © 2019 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. Peer-review under responsibility of the scientific committee of the 3rd World Conference on Technology, Innovation and Entrepreneurship 10.1016/j.procs.2019.09.077

2

Lutfu S. Sua et al. / Procedia Computer Science 158 (2019) 466–473 Author name / Procedia Computer Science 00 (2019) 000–000

467

1. Introduction Electrical energy plays a vital part within the everyday life. It is produced utilizing diverse formats and to produce electrical energy, fossil-based fuels are needed. Nowadays, fossil-based energy sources are running out. Thus, there is a requirement to consider an alternative resource and the best feasible alternative is sustainable power resources. Sustainable power resources contain hydroelectric, wind, solar, etc. Wind and solar will contribute significantly to the next power production. Sun power can be thought as the power’s pronounced resource that can be utilized for producing electric energy because it is a clean power resource and can provide contribution towards big power production [1]. Recent global solar farm map is given in Fig.1. The ecology is suffering from climate alterations because of different events. Hence, to preserve the habitat, it is vital to replace utilizing non-sustainable power resources with the sustainable ones. The best method to acheive this is through utilization of sun power. A smart way of utilizing sun power to produce electrical energy is through photovoltaic cells. Photovoltaic cells are nonpolluting, solar sector is cost effective, it does not require upkeeping costs, this sector is a dependable source, and it does not have any moving parts. In researching for sustainable power resources, photovoltaic cells display a promising group. Over the last decades, an enormous quantity of studies has been conducted in related areas and solar cells’ numerous forms have been tested and developed. Before presentating the nanomaterials’ value added in photovoltaic cells, the short way should exist to comprehend the photovoltaic cells’ work operation. The photovoltaic cell is an electrical apparatus, the p-n joint in its fundamental shape, which has the capability to transform solar lights in electric. By Becquerel, this event was detected in 1839. It is known as the PV impact [2]. All materials cannot be photovoltaic cell constituents. Since the primary property should be the capability to transform the the sunshine’s discernible spectrum in electric, this can become solely by the electron-bore pairs’ genesis when the material attracts photons corresponding to a power equal or greater to its power cavity [Fig. 2].

Fig. 1. Global solar farm map [3].

Fig. 2. The fundamental photovoltaic cell construction and light’s impact [4]

Lutfu S. Sua et al. / Procedia Computer Science 158 (2019) 466–473 Author name / Procedia Computer Science 00 (2019) 000–000

468

3

The photovoltaic cells are generally known as the semi-conducting materials. These materials must have specific properties to adsorb solar light. Some photovoltaic cells are specified to utilize sun rays that arrive at the world's surface, while other cells are optimized for utilization in space. Photovoltaic cells can be obtained from light absorbing material’s single sheet (single junction) or utilize poly physical forms (multi junctions) to receive different charge separation and absorption mechanisms’ advantage. Photovoltaic cells can be grouped into first, second, third, and fourth generation cells. The photovoltaic cells’ four generations and their characteristic properties are displayed in Table 1. Single and multi junction photovoltaic cells are displayed in Fig. 3a [5]. The semi-transparent single junction photovoltaic cells’ schematic view is shown in Fig.3b [6]. Single-junction photovoltaic cell’s equivalent circuit diagram is given in Fig.3c [1]. Lately, the photovoltaic cells have made an important progress through the utilization of diverse materials other than Si (silicon), therefore the transformation performance can be rised. The multi and single-junction photovoltaic cells’ behavior were compared by Fernandez et al. It was found that the single-junction photovoltaic cells were effected by changing temperature and irradiance, while the multi-junction photovoltaic cells were effected by changing spectrum [7]. Table 1. The photovoltaic cells’ four generations and their characteristic properties Solar cells evolution Characteristics

First generation: bulk silicon High cost with high efficiency

Second generation: thin film solar cells Amorphous or polycrystalline silicon, CIGS and CdTe

i.e.

*single crystal silicon wafers (c-Si)

*amorphous silicon (a-Si) *polycrystaline silicon (polySi) *cadmium telluride (CdTe) *copper indium gallium diselenide (CIGS) alloy

References

[8]

[9, 10]

(a)

(b)

Third generation

Fourth generation

Organic solar cells with nano-crystalline films

Combines the low cost / flexibility of polymer thin films with inorganic nanostructures

*nanocrystal solar cells *photoelectrochemical (PEC) cells -Graetzel cells *polymer solar cells *dye sensitized solar cell (DSSC) [11]

*hybrid-inorganic crystals within polymer matrix

[12]

(c)

Fig. 3. (a) Single and multi junction photovoltaic cells (b) the semi-transparent single junction photovoltaic cells’ schematic view (c) singlejunction photovoltaic cell’s equivalent circuit

The photovoltaic cell characteristics are greatly attractive and may be utilized as a main resource which could be connected with networks. Photovoltaic cells are significant resources for energy extraction. In this study, photovoltaic cell characteristics are evaluated with a multi criteria decision making method by focusing on the single-junction photovoltaic cell.

4

Lutfu S. Sua et al. / Procedia Computer Science 158 (2019) 466–473 Author name / Procedia Computer Science 00 (2019) 000–000

469

2. Single junction photovoltaic cell and sub-modules With the expanding needs for sustainable powers and the limitation of fossil-based energy sources, photovoltaic industry have become one of the significant sectors in the whole world countries. Photovoltic cell is still the most preferred option detected to utilize power of sunshines, which is unlimited resource of clean and renewable power’s. The solar transits about 120 000TW of energy to the earth surface, whilst the current worldwide demand of power is about 17TW. Photovoltaic cell technics (photo-energy’s direct transformation in usable electricity power) have used this inexhaustible, free, and effective power source and are hoped to provide a rising portion of the world's prospective power source. The incoming sunlight is transformed in electrical energy with the photovoltaic cell’s help. Solar cells can be called as great field’s diodes that have been optimized to adsorb radiance and transform it to electrical power with the best feasible performance.

Fig. 4. Photovoltaic search’s current and historical performances in diverse categories worldwide [13]

Fig. 4 displays the photovoltaic search’s current and historical performances in diverse categories worldwide. Photovoltaic cell sectors are generally divided into four generations. Single-crystalline and multi-crystalline silicon(Si) are contemplated as the first generation. There are diverse materiels that can be utilized for production photovoltaic cells. The most efficient, popular and the oldest photovoltaic cell sector is still the photovoltaic cells obtained from silicon’s thin wafers. These are known as mono-crystalline photovoltaic cells inasmuch as the photovoltaic cells are parted from big sole crystals that have been meticulously grown under attentively supervised terms. Generally, the photovoltaic cells are several inches and a few photovoltaic cells are prepared in a system to compose a photovoltaic panel. Notional to the photovoltaic cells’ other kinds, they have higher performance (about 0.24) and their significance is receiving more electric compared to a given field of panel. For assembly of the panels, it is beneficial if it has just a restricted field, or want to retain the settlement minor for esthetic outcomes. All the same, expanding pure silicon’s big crystals is very power-intensive process and hard, so the generation prices for this kind of panels have been historically the best feasible of entire photovoltaic panel kinds [14]. Single-junction photovoltaic cells primarily occur as sole junction. It is composed of semi-conductor materials like Gallium Arsenide, Gallium Selenide, Silicon, Copper Indium, etc. Si is the easiest one and there are plenty of it in nature to obtain, however Copper indium selenide, Cadmium telluride, Polymers, Gallium arsenide, and organic materials are sourced from chemical treatments in lab environment. Based on the material’s utilized type in fabricating photovoltaic cells, the cell properties and efficiency, there is a property general to the solar cells’ all forms. This is concerned with the ecological levels, such as radiation event characteristics (spectrum, magnitude, etc.) and ambient temperature, which effect its efficiency. These options can be altered steadily because of climate change, daytime, and season loading [3]. The apparatus can be formed by taking into account the temperature and irradiance as data current and variables, power and voltage as throughput factors. The 3 throughput factors help to determine the V-P and I-V diagram [15]. Over the last decades, an enormous quantity of studies has been conducted in related areas and solar

Lutfu S. Sua et al. / Procedia Computer Science 158 (2019) 466–473 Author name / Procedia Computer Science 00 (2019) 000–000

470

5

cells’ numerous forms have been tested and developed. For single junction cells and sub-modules, the best reported measurements are summarized in Table 2. Towards the goal of contributing to the photovoltaic cell industry development, this section aims to provide an analysis methodology which covers determining a set of criteria for the comparison of various photovoltaic cells. By utilizing processes resourced substantially on chemistry, the nano-electrochemistry appears to be a no negligible alternative for broadly utilized, low-cost, and high-performance photovoltaic cell production. For photovoltaic cell production, it is due to the fact that these continuums are realized at minimum or ambience temperatures, which considerably diminishes the energy invoice. Table 2 Confirmed-photovoltaic cells analyzed in this paper (values measured at 250C, global AM1.5 spectrum and 1000W/m2, ASTM/G/173/03, IEC 60904/3 global) [16-18] Classification

Efficiency %

Area, cm2

Voc,V

Jsc, mA/cm2

Fill Factor %

Test Centre (date)

79.0 (da)

0.738

42.65a

84.9

AIST (3/17)

0.6742

41.08c

80.5

FhG‐ISE (8/17)

Description

Silicon Si (crystalline cell)

26.7 ± 0.5

Si (multicrystalline cell) Si (thin transfer submodule) Si (thin film minimodule)

22.3 ± 0.4b

3.923 (ap)

Kaneka, n‐type rear IBC3 FhG‐ISE, n‐type4

21.2 ± 0.4

239.7 (ap)

0.687d

38.50d,e

80.3

NREL (4/14)

Solexel (35 μm thick)5 CSG solar (<2 μm on glass)6

10.5 ± 0.3

94.0 (ap)

0.492d

29.7d,f

72.1

FhG‐ISE (8/07)

GaAs (thin film cell)

28.8 ± 0.9

0.9927 (ap) 1.122

29.68g

86.5

NREL (5/12)

Alta Devices7

GaAs (multicrystalline) InP (crystalline cell)

18.4 ± 0.5

4.011 (t)

0.994

23.2

79.7

NREL (11/95)

RTI, Ge substrate8

24.2 ± 0.5b

1.008 (ap)

0.939

31.15a

82.6

NREL (3/13)

NREL9

CIGS (cell)

21.7 ± 0.5

1.044 (da)

0.718

40.70a

74.3

AIST (1/17)

CdTe (cell)

21.0 ± 0.4

CZTS (cell)

10.0 ± 0.2

III‐V cells

Thin film chalcogenide

e

1.0623 (ap) 0.8759 30.25

79.4

Newport (8/14)

1.113 (da)

0.7083 21.77a

65.1

NREL (3/17)

Solar Frontier10 First Solar, on glass11 UNSW12

Amorphous/microcrystalline Si (amorphous cell)

10.2 ± 0.3h,b

1.001 (da)

0.896

16.36e

69.8

AIST (7/14)

AIST13

Si (microcrystalline cell) Perovskite

11.9 ± 0.3

1.044 (da)

0.550

28.72

75.0

AIST (2/17)

AIST14

Perovskite (cell) Perovskite (minimodule)

20.9 ± 0.7i,j 16.0 ± 0.4i

0.991 (da) 16.29 (ap)

1.125 0.978d

24.92c 21.44d,a

74.5 76.1

Dye (cell)

11.9 ± 0.4k

1.005 (da)

0.744

22.47l

71.2

AIST (9/12)

Sharp17

Dye (minimodule) Dye (submodule)

10.7 ± 0.4k 8.8 ± 0.3k

0.754d 20.19d,m 0.697d 18.42d,n

69.9 68.7

AIST (2/15) AIST (9/12)

Sharp, 7 serial cells17 Sharp, 26 serial cells18

0.780

74.2

AIST (10/15)

Toshiba19

73.2

AIST (2/15) cells)20

Toshiba (8 series

b

a

Newport (7/17) Newport (4/17)

KRICT15 Microquanta, 6 serial cells16

Dye sensitised

26.55 (da) 398.8 (da)

Organic Organic (cell) Organic (minimodule)

11.2 ± 0.3o 9.7 ± 0.3

o

0.992 (da) 26.14 (da)

19.30e

0.806 16.47 d

d,m

6

Lutfu S. Sua et al. / Procedia Computer Science 158 (2019) 466–473 Author name / Procedia Computer Science 00 (2019) 000–000

471

In this study, a set of nanomaterials are evaluated based on a set of criteria, then the most appropriate material is aimed to be determined based on these criteria. Table 2 presents the alternatives that are considered for the purpose of this study. 3. AHP Methodology For various reasons, AHP method is an important decision support system used in decision making problems. Ability of evaluating many criteria at the same time, being able to determine the ideal alternative, providing the decision makers with the flexibility to reflect their opinions, avoiding the uncertain factor in situations where uncertainty exists, and chance of restructuring in the cases of disagreements can be listed as some of these reasons contributing to the popularity of the method. AHP methodology enables the evaluation of all alternatives by considering many different criteria. Doing this task manually can be very challenging and it consumes considerable amount of time. The users can express their opinions in a flexible manner with AHP method and make more detailed and different evaluations by adding various criteria and objectives. It also provides an analysis and information utilization process to re-evaluate the conflicts and produce solutions for them. The method helps avoiding the uncertainty in situations where risk and uncertainty exists (19, 20). AHP method is composed of several steps. First, the definition of the problem to be investigated within the study is provided, then a decision matrix is generated among the criteria effecting the selection of the alternatives and relative priorities of these criteria are determined. After these calculations, percentage priority values are determined by evaluating the alternatives for each criterion and the best alternative is determined using the resulting distribution. The criteria and efficiencies are listed in Fig. 5a

(a) (b) Fig. 5. a-The criteria and efficiencies b-The relative criteria priorities

It was mentioned that the earlier steps of AHP method involve calculation of criteria priorities and ranking the alternatives based on these priority values. In this context, criteria priorities that were obtained from the analysis are exhibited in the following Fig. 5b. Fig. 6 indicates that the most important criterion is “Efficiency” and it is followed by “Fill Factor” criterion. On the other hand, the criterion with the lowest priority value is “Area”. The alternatives are evaluated according to these criteria priorities and obtained results are shown in the figure below. The figure indicates that the best material based on the pre-determined criteria is “GaAs (thin)” which is followed by “Si (cryst)”. GaAs (thin) shows significant superiority over the remaining alternatives on four of the five criteria which is reflected in the final results. It was also observed that the materials with the lowest score are Si (thin film), CZTS, and Dye (sub) multijunctions.

472

Author name / Procedia Computer Science 00 (2019) 000–000 Lutfu S. Sua et al. / Procedia Computer Science 158 (2019) 466–473

7

Fig. 6. The resulting priorities

4. Conclusions Currently, the undertaking to carry through renewable improvement to compensate the population’s existing requirements without risking those of next generations is a tough fight to accomplish. From a power perspective, estimates show that global power expenditure will outgrow by 0.56 from 2010 until 2040, though a gradual rise in costs of both natural gas and oil is anticipated [21]. Over the last decades, photovoltaic cell sector has accomplished enormous development as a renewable resource. The photovoltaic cells’ time line network starts in the 19th century when it is tracked that the solar lights’ asset is competent of producing utilizable electric power. The photovoltaic cells have continued to be utilized in numerous implementations. Historically, these cells have been utilized in conditions wherewith electric energy from the network is absent. For the sustainable energy sector improvements in photovoltaic cell played a significant part. The photovoltaic cells offer us the easier road to use the sustainable energy’s great resource. In this work, we displayed an optimization-based analysis comparison amongst the diverse Single junction photovoltaic cell and sub-modules. By the multi-criteria decision making methodology, the comparative analysis is applied by the material utilized in diverse production photovoltaic cell, the cell’s efficiency, area, fill factor, and current-voltage (I-V) characteristics. This study is intended to initiate a framework for a quantitative model in determining the related factors to develop a basis of comparison for photovoltaic cells. The relative priorities of the selected factors are determined based on expert opinions for the purpose of this study. In future researches, number of factors can be increased and their relative priorities can be modified based on new perspectives References 1] Shalini Gupta, Shabana Urooj and Omveer Singh, Review on Single and Multi-junction Solar Cell with MPPT Techniques, 3rd IEEE International Conference on Nanotechnology for Instrumentation and measurement, Gautam Buddha University, Gr. Noida, 16-17 November 2017 [2] Sze SM, Kwok KNg (2007) Physics of semiconductor devices. Wiley, USA [3] [https://blog.solarenergymaps.com/2016/05/map-of-solar-farms-around-world.html#.XL4lOI9OJZV] [4] Pode R, Diouf B (2011) Solar lighting, Green energy and technology. Springer, Berlin/Heidelberg. doi:10.1007/978-1-4471-2134-3_2 [5] https://slideplayer.com/slide/10702073/ [6] http://pvlab.ioffe.ru/about/solar_cells.html [7] M. Babar, A. A. Rizvi, E. A. Al-Ammar and N. H. Malik, “Analytical model of multi-junction solar cell,” Arab J Sci Eng, vol. 39, pp. 547–555, 2014. [8] Chiappafreddo P, Gagliardi A (2010) The photovoltaic market facing the challenge of organic solar cells: economic and technical perspectives. Transit Stud Rev 17:346–355. doi:10.1007/s11300-010-0148-0 [9] Akl AA, Afify HH (2008) Growth, microstructure, optical and electrical properties of sprayed CuInSe2 polycrystalline films. Mater Res Bull 43:1539–1548 [10] Tauc J (2005) Optical properties of amorphous semiconductors and solar cells. In: Yu PY, Cardona M (eds) Fundamentals of semiconductors: physics and materials properties. Springer, Berlin/Heidelberg, pp 566–568. ISBN 3-540-25470-6

8

Lutfu S. Sua et al. / Procedia Computer Science 158 (2019) 466–473 Author name / Procedia Computer Science 00 (2019) 000–000

473

[11] Wanzhu Cai, Xiong Gong, Yong Cao (2010) Polymer solar cells: recent development and possible routes for improvement in the performance. Sol Energy Mater Sol Cells 94:114–127 [12] Imalka Jayawardena KDG, Rozanski LJ, Mills CA, Beliatis MJ, Aamina Nismy N, Silva SRP (2013) Inorganics-in-Organics: Recent developments and outlook for 4G polymer solar cells. Nanoscale 5:8411–8427. doi:10.1039/C3NR02733C [13] https://www.nrel.gov/pv/cell-efficiency.html [14] H. Keppner, J. Meier, P. Torres, D. Fischer, and A. Shah, "Microcrystalline silicon and micromorph tandem solar cells," Applied Physics A: Materials Science & Processing, vol. 69, pp. 169-177, 1999. [15] H. Bellia, R. Youcef and M. Fatima, “A detailed modeling of photovoltaic module using MATLAB,” NRIAG Journal of Astronomy and Geophysics, vol. 3, pp.53-61, 2014 . [16] Martin A. Green, Yoshihiro Hishikawa, Ewan D. Dunlop, Dean H. Levi, Jochen Hoh Ebinger, Anita W.Y. Ho‐Baillie, Solar cell efficiency tables, Prog Photovolt Res Appl. 2018;26:3–12. [17] Essig S, Allebé C, Remo T, et al. Raising the one‐sun conversion efficiency of III–V/Si solar cells to 32.8% for two junctions and 35.9% for three junctions. Nature Energy. 2017;2(9):17144. https://doi.org/10.1038/nenergy.2017.144 [18]https://www.ise.fraunhofer.de/content/dam/ise/en/documents/News/2017/0917_News_31_Percent_for‐Silicon‐based‐multi‐junction‐ solarcell_e.pdf (dated 24 March 2017). [19] Thomas L Saaty and Luis G Vargas. The possibility of group choice: pairwise comparisons and merging functions. Social Choice and Welfare, 38(3):481{496, 2012. [20] Yoram Wind and Thomas L Saaty. Marketing applications of the analytic hierarchy process. Management science, 26(7):641{658, 1980. [21] U.S. Energy Information Administration, 2013. International Energy Outlook 2013. With Projections to 2040. Office of Energy Analysis U.S. Department of Energy Washington, pp. 1-312. DC 20585