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Small computer market to grow 12 times by 1985
Optical disc storage to challenge Winchesters The rapid growth of the Winchester disc market will be threatened as early as 1984 by the optical disc according to a report from I RD. The hard disc market is currently very strong, particularly at the low end (5¼-in) and at the top end (more than 500 Mbyte), but the price performance advantages offered by optical disc-based systems will allow them to take two-thirds of the business system disc peripheral system market in 1992. A 12-in optical disc can store 2 Gbytes of information. The price of such discs is expected to drop from $100-3000 today to below $10 by 1984 and capacities are set to increase as well. Winchester prices are approximately $12 per Mbyte and floppy discs $7.50 per Mbyte. Even if prices
Type of Media
Quantity needed
Cost of media ($)
Magnetic disc
80 200 Mbyte disc packs
40 000
Computer compatible tape
90 tapes (2400 ft, 6250 bpi, 8-track)
High density magnetic tape
2400 ft of 2-in tape
Optical disc
One 12-in disc
Consumer ( 3 % )
1977
Total $80 M=14ion
I00 I0"
*projected Quantities required for storing I0 I I bits of information in alternative storage media
continue to fall until 1984, they will still remain above projected levels for the optical systems costs. Problems still exist for optical disc storage such as lack of erasability and relatively high error rates for data storage, but I RD consider these to be temporary drawbacks because 'the vast quantities of storage space discs
Small computer market to grow 12 times by 1985 The 'over the counter' computer market potential will encompass 2M small businesses and 41½M professionals and be worth $9000M in 1985 with $860M in 1980 according to a market report from Frost and Sullivan Inc. OTC (over the counter) has been coined by Frost and Sullivan to encompass personal, home, hobby and small business computer. The hobby market will shrink, but will continue to be significant for mail order businesses. Software is seen as a growing source of revenue for computer shops,.rising from 21 per cent of
1350
total computer and related product sales in 1981 to nearly 30 per cent by | 985 and 50 per cent thereafter. The 1985 projected base of installed OTC computers is projected to exceed 10M units. Accounting-related software is the largest software market, followed by word processing and inventory control. The report, entitles 'The over-the-counter computer market in the US: hardware, software, and associated peripherals' is available from Frost and Sullivan Inc., 106 Fulton Street, New York, NY I0038j USA. Tel: (212) 233-1080.
offered by these discs will permit data to be rewritten or new data to be added'. This will not affect the cost per Mbyte calculations much unless such application takes place many times or the data bank is large (over 100 Mbyte). These drawbacks will have little effect on applications in image and video storage for which late-eighties growth is forecast. Recent advances have been made in laser technology for recording and recording data and in recording materials. Hitachi and RCA are developing semiconductor diodes lasers. Media type development work includes thin metal films, tellurium and its alloys (Phillips and RCA), dye polymer films (Kodak), electrophotographic (Harris) and metal-impregnated systems (Drexler). The report, entitles 'Optical discs for office automation and publishing' is available from IRD, 30 High Street, Norwalk, CT 06851 USA. Tel: 203-866-6914 (outside USA) Telex: 64 3452 and costs $128.5.
1981
Totlt: $1 8 Billion
1985
Repo,'l NO 904
TOtal $9 BrlhOn
Establishments take over from hobbyists in microcomputer hardware market
vol 6 no 3 april 82
165
Type of Media
Quantity needed
Cost of media ($)
Magnetic disc
80 200 Mbyte disc packs
40 000
Computer compatible tape
90 tapes (2400 ft, 6250 bpi, 8-track)
High density magnetic tape
2400 ft of 2-in tape
Optical disc
One 12-in disc
Consumer ( 3 % )
1977
Total $80 M=14ion
I00 I0"
*projected Quantities required for storing I0 I I bits of information in alternative storage media
continue to fall until 1984, they will still remain above projected levels for the optical systems costs. Problems still exist for optical disc storage such as lack of erasability and relatively high error rates for data storage, but I RD consider these to be temporary drawbacks because 'the vast quantities of storage space discs
Small computer market to grow 12 times by 1985 The 'over the counter' computer market potential will encompass 2M small businesses and 41½M professionals and be worth $9000M in 1985 with $860M in 1980 according to a market report from Frost and Sullivan Inc. OTC (over the counter) has been coined by Frost and Sullivan to encompass personal, home, hobby and small business computer. The hobby market will shrink, but will continue to be significant for mail order businesses. Software is seen as a growing source of revenue for computer shops,.rising from 21 per cent of
1350
total computer and related product sales in 1981 to nearly 30 per cent by | 985 and 50 per cent thereafter. The 1985 projected base of installed OTC computers is projected to exceed 10M units. Accounting-related software is the largest software market, followed by word processing and inventory control. The report, entitles 'The over-the-counter computer market in the US: hardware, software, and associated peripherals' is available from Frost and Sullivan Inc., 106 Fulton Street, New York, NY I0038j USA. Tel: (212) 233-1080.
offered by these discs will permit data to be rewritten or new data to be added'. This will not affect the cost per Mbyte calculations much unless such application takes place many times or the data bank is large (over 100 Mbyte). These drawbacks will have little effect on applications in image and video storage for which late-eighties growth is forecast. Recent advances have been made in laser technology for recording and recording data and in recording materials. Hitachi and RCA are developing semiconductor diodes lasers. Media type development work includes thin metal films, tellurium and its alloys (Phillips and RCA), dye polymer films (Kodak), electrophotographic (Harris) and metal-impregnated systems (Drexler). The report, entitles 'Optical discs for office automation and publishing' is available from IRD, 30 High Street, Norwalk, CT 06851 USA. Tel: 203-866-6914 (outside USA) Telex: 64 3452 and costs $128.5.
1981
Totlt: $1 8 Billion
1985
Repo,'l NO 904
TOtal $9 BrlhOn
Establishments take over from hobbyists in microcomputer hardware market
vol 6 no 3 april 82
165