Smallholder farmers’ awareness and perceptions of climate change in Adama district, central rift valley of Ethiopia

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Smallholder farmers’ awareness and perceptions of climate change in Adama district, central rift valley of Ethiopia Hurgesa Hundera a, *, Sylvester Mpandeli b, c, Amare Bantider d a

Arsi University and University of South Africa, Ethiopia Water Utilization in Agriculture: Water Research Commission, Bloukraans Building, Lynnwood Bridge, Pretoria, South Africa c University of South Africa, Department of Environmental Sciences, Florida Campus, South Africa d Addis Ababa University, College of Development Studies (Center for Food Security Studies), Addis Ababa, Ethiopia b

1. Introduction One of the most vital determinants of livelihoods and survival for human kind is climatic nature. According to the existing literatures, the reality of climate change is no longer an abstract as its impacts are being experienced across the globe with variation in magnitude and extent of effects based the available resources (Munang et al., 2012; IPCC, 2014b; Eshetu et al., 2016). Its impacts are felt already through change in average temperature, rainfall, moisture in the air, vegetation and in­ creases in the frequency of droughts (Neelin, 2011; Pelling, 2011). With exception of central part of Africa where the data is insufficient to draw conclusion, it is very likely that over large areas of this continent the mean annual temperature has increased over the last century (IPCC, 2014a) and mainly due to anthropogenic activities (Stott et al., 2011). It has also been emphasized that countries like Ethiopia, South Sudan, Uganda and Kenya have experienced upward trends in seasonal mean temperature over the past years (Funk et al., 2012). In Ethiopia, the temperature has been rising yearly at the rate of 0.2 � C over the last five decades (Legesse et al., 2013). IPCC (2014a) has also projected that the Earth’s temperature will increase between 1.5 � C and 5.8 � C by 2100. However, unlike the clear temperature trend, it is difficult to put the clear trend for the rainfall occurrences (IPCC, 2014b) as there are var­ iations in different regions. Literatures show that the change in climate and weather results into disturbances of biological actions and ecosystems through shorter sea­ sons of rainfalls, floods, droughts and low crop productivity (Karekezi et al., 2009; IPCC, 2014b) thereby aggravating the occurrences of other weather and climate extremes. It has been projected that crop yield in Africa may fall by 10–20% by 2050 or even up to 50% associated to climate change impacts (Thornton et al., 2006), particularly because performances of African agriculture is largely dependent on the healthy functioning of weather and climate. Thus, available evidences point out

that rain dependent agriculture is very much sensitive to weather and climate extremes such as droughts, floods and severe storms (Adger et al., 2003; Demeke et al., 2012), which may results in crossing critical thresholds. Above all, any negative change to agricultural sector poses a significant threats and uncertainties to the existence of smallholder farmers as they have limited options (Morton, 2007; Nwaiwu et al., 2014). Previous assessments have revealed that smallholder farmers are consistently facing the prospects of tragic crop collapses, reduced agri­ cultural productivity, increased hunger, malnutrition and diseases and reduced income as a result of impacts of climate and weather extremes (Zoellick, 2009; Moyo et al., 2012; IPCC, 2014b). This implies that smallholder farmers are largely vulnerable to the extremes of climate and weather events due to the fact that their livelihoods are purely de­ pends on rain fed agriculture on small farmlands using family labor and little modern inputs. In this context, smallholder farmers are largely vulnerable and the affected part of the communities. Regarding the awareness and perception of smallholder farmers about climate change, there were mixed evidences. Study carried out in Rumphi district, northern Malawi established that though the awareness of the smallholder farmers about climate change have relatively increased, the meaning and understanding they have about climate change were still not in line with scientific concept of climate change (Munthali et al., 2016). Most farmers associated climate change events to only rainfall patterns as they frequently experienced the change of rainfall occurrences in their agricultural production systems. The result of the study among rural farmers of Imo state, Nigeria also revealed that the knowledge of the farmers about climate change was more local based instead of its scientific concept (Ozor et al., 2015). According to the authors, the limited understanding of climate change was largely attributed to insufficient access to information about climate change. Ishaya and Abaje (2008) also reported that farmers of Jema, Nigeria

* Corresponding author. E-mail address: [email protected] (H. Hundera). https://doi.org/10.1016/j.wace.2019.100230 Received 7 September 2018; Received in revised form 29 June 2019; Accepted 20 September 2019 2212-0947/© 2019 Published by Elsevier B.V. This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/).

Please cite this article as: Hurgesa Hundera, Weather and Climate Extremes, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.wace.2019.100230

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were generally characterized by lack of awareness and knowledge about climate change. Even, according to Ochieng and James (2013) primary school teachers in Kisumu Municipality, Kenya had significant gaps in climate change awareness thought it was not considerably low. The source furthermore revealed that awareness creation about climate change was inescapable by developing climate change awareness policy. With the objective of exploring farmers’ perceptions regarding long term changes in climatic variables and the associated effects on farming, Ndamani and Watanabe (2015) carried out study in Ghana. They used semi structured questionnaires and focus group discussions on randomly selected 100 households. The finding of the study indicated that 87% of respondents perceived a decrease in rainfall amount while 82% perceived an increase in temperature over the past 10 years. Deressa et al. (2009) also revealed that the majority of the farmers residing in Blue Nile of Ethiopia had awareness about climate change. It has also been reported that most of the farmers have perceived the changing climate by observing rainfall and temperature trend of their area (Mengistu, 2011; Legesse et al., 2013; Hadgu et al., 2014). In these regards, however, some generalizations about the smallholder farmers’ perception and awareness about climate were largely characterized by opinion with no or little scientific supports. The nature of awareness and perception of the rural farming communities about the current condi­ tions of climate change influences the way they react to the climate change (Adger et al., 2009). In this case, the negative impacts of climate change could considerable affect the crop production as a result of lack of awareness and misconception. Despite the considerable number of studies that have been conducted on various natures of climate change in various countries and levels (Deressa et al., 2011; Mengistu, 2011; Legesse et al., 2013; Ochieng and James, 2013; Hadgu et al., 2014; Ndamani and Watanabe, 2015; Ozor et al., 2015; Munthali et al., 2016), limited study has been conducted so

far in Adama district, regarding awareness and perception of small­ holder farmers about climate change. Most of the existing studies also did not look into the nature of climate change as perceived by the smallholder farmers. In addition, Adger et al. (2009) argue that awareness and perception of the rural farming communities about climate change influences the way they react to the climate change. This implies that there is a need to study awareness and perception of smallholder farmers about climate change since it is a precondition to apply methods of addressing climate change. Moreover, in Adama dis­ trict (study area), where natural rainfall based agriculture is dominant means of livelihoods and the greater proportions of the farmers are smallholder, studying awareness and perception of smallholder farmers about climate change is vital for developing policies and programs that address climate and weather extremes. In views of the above conditions, therefore, this study was designed to examine the awareness and perception of rural smallholder farmers about climate change in Adama District, Central Rift Valley Region of Ethiopia. The result of this study is expected to initiate the discussion and information exchange among local communities, field experts, planners, policy makers and re­ searchers to improve the level of agricultural extension and climate in­ formation services particularly for smallholder farmers residing in remote in areas. 2. Description of study area Adama district (Fig. 1) is bordered on the south by Arsi Zone, on the southwest by Koka Reservior, on the west by Lome, on the north by the Afar Region, and on the east by Boset district. It is located at about 100 km southeast of capital city of the country, Addis Ababa. The topography is characterized by having plain, undulating land, gentle slope, and rugged terrain land. Its average annual temperature and

Fig. 1. Map of Adama district. Source: Developed by the researchers based on EthioGIS data using ArcMap 10.3. 2

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were contacted using questionnaires for this study. To come up with appropriate sample size, two stage sampling techniques were employed. In the first stage, simple random sampling technique was employed to identify six kebeles from the existing kebeles of the district. Then, in order to identify the determined sample size households from the kebeles systematic random sampling technique was used. For identification of participants in focus group discussions and key informant interviews, purposive sampling was applied based on their relevance to climate change. A snowball sampling technique was employed to locate poten­ tial participants who can provide reliable and realistic data about the historical profile of climate change over the last three decades. This technique was used to mainly identify the local elders of more than 65 years old with a long history of stay in the study area and knowledge regarding climate change. In order to analyse rainfall nature of the study area, long term monthly, seasonal and annual mean of rainfall were computed from the daily data. Furthermore, rainfall indices such as Precipitation Concen­ tration Index (PCI), Coefficient of Variability (CV) and analysis of Mann Kendall trend test were applied in this study with intention of examining the variability and trends of rainfall. PCI was applied in this study to characterize the monthly rainfall concentrations at both annual and seasonal scales. The value of PCI gives a clue for the management of irrigation, erosion and rain fed agriculture. According to Oliver (1980), seasonal and annual values of PCI were computed as follows: P12 ðpiÞ2 PCIAnnual ¼ 100*�Pi¼1 �2 12 i¼1 pi

Table 1 Awareness about climate change and its concept. Variables and their Attributes

Frequency

Percent

χ2

Awareness about climate change

317 34 351 67 152 98 57

90.3 9.7 100 21.1 48 30.9 18

228.2a

95 35 130

30 11 41

86

27.1

203

64

8

2.5

20

6.3

The level of awareness about climate change Awareness about concept of the phrase climate change

Awareness about the spatial scale of climate change

Yes, aware about it No, don’t aware about it Total Little about it More about it Detail about it Short term fluctuations of rainfall and temperature Drought Deforestations Changes in the average weather conditions over extended periods Problem happened at local scale Problem happened at world level Not a problem at anywhere Early to recognize it as a problem

35.0a 66.6a

302.2a

a

Statistically significant at 0.01significance level Source: Compiled from field survey result.

rainfall vary between 15 and 20 � C and 700–800 mm respectively. Geologically, the study area is dominated by the formation of Great Rift Valley of the Cenozoic era. The present physiographic feature of the area is the result of tectonic volcanic activities. Hence, the deposition of sediments largely is of fluvial and lacustrine origin found in the area. Therefore, the main landscape in Adama and its surrounding consists of fault-controlled depressions covered with sediments and volcanic domes and cones.

P4 ðpiÞ2 PCISeasonal ¼ 33:3*�Pi¼1 �2 4 i¼1 pi Where PCI is Precipitation Concentration Index, pi is the rainfall amounts of ith month, Σ is summation over 12 months in case of annual and 4 months with respect to seasonal. As per Oliver (1980), when the value of PCI is less than 10, it reveals uniform distribution of precipi­ tation (low concentration); between 11 and 15 moderate precipitation concentration; between 16 and 20 irregular distribution of precipitation and greater than 20 interpreted as strong irregularity of precipitation (high concentration). Coefficient of variability was calculated to mea­ sure the variability of rainfall and its characteristics over a period of time and space. It is calculated as (Hare, 2003)

3. Research methodology Data about perception of smallholder farmers about climate change were collected using various approaches. The participants were approached through interviews, focus group discussions, structured and semi structured household survey. In these processes, smallholder farmers, agricultural extension agents, and experts were contacted. Moreover, long term rainfall and temperature records were obtained from National Meteorological Agency (NMA) of Ethiopia. This further helped the researchers to analyse temperature and rainfall conditions whose occurrences and consequences are assumed to have direct man­ ifestations to climatic pattern of the area. Data obtained from meteo­ rological records were examined with the perception data collected from households using questionnaires and interviews which helped us to come up with profound research outputs and thoughtful recommendations. As data collection tools, close and open ended questions were pre­ pared and distributed for smallholder farmers. In this regard, Likert scale items about indicators of perception were developed and distributed for the selected smallholder farmers. In addition to household question­ naires, focus group discussions were also conducted. It is an appropriate tool for gathering impartial and non-exaggerated qualitative data from discussants since the members would act as checks on one another. In doing so, focus group discussion guidelines were developed and used during discussions. Key informant interviews were finally conducted with elder farmers, agricultural extension workers and experts. Each interview was carried out by the researchers with the aim of making further investigations on the basis of the information received from the respondents. To determine the sample size, statistical formula developed by Yemane (1967) was employed and accordingly 351 sample households

CV ¼

SD �100 Mean

Where CV is Coefficient of Variability and SD is standard deviation. According to Hare (2003), if the value of CV is less than 20, it shows low rainfall variability; between 20 and 30 indicates moderate rainfall variability and greater than 30 interpreted as high rainfall variability. The collected field data were interpreted using descriptive statistics such as frequency distribution. Chi square test was applied in order to assess the significance difference of respondent’s frequency distributions. The analysis of qualitative data was carried out using case summaries and thematic content methods thereby categorizing into themes based on their similarities. 4. Results and discussions 4.1. Awareness about nature and concept of climate change As it is indicated in the Table 1, the majorities (90.3%) of the re­ spondents reported that they have awareness about climate change in their communities while the remaining 9.7% of them have never come across and aware of the phrase climate change in their local commu­ nities. However, drawing conclusion about the level of climate change awareness based on this question only could be misleading since the 3

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Table 2 Perception about rainfall and temperature pattern of the area. Parameter Rainfall trend

Temperature trend

Directions Increasing Decreasing No change I have no idea Increasing Decreasing No change I have no idea

Frequency 25 273 5 20 224 92 2 5

Percent 7.7 84.6 1.4 6.3 69.2 28.5 0.6 1.7

Table 3 Perception of respondents about indictors of climate change. χ2 a

613.0

403.6a

Source: Compiled from field survey result. a Represents statistical significance at 0.01 alpha level.

question is very general. For instance, according the study carried out in Jalingo Metropolis, Nigeria by Oruonye (2011) about 82% of the re­ spondents reported that they were aware of climate change in response to the question whether they had heard about climate change or not. However, out of the respondents who claimed aware of climate change only 11% of them correctly stated about the nature and concept of climate change. Thus, several questions were developed and presented to those who claimed to be aware of climate change to the first question. Hence, as it was revealed in Table 1 out of the respondents who claimed to have awareness about climate change only about one third (30.9%) of them knew the details of the climate change. This implies that most of the respondents participated in this study do not know the details of climate change. Similar to this finding, according the study carried out in Imo state Nigeria larger proportions (62.3%) of rural farmers either know little or do not know about climate change (Ozor et al., 2015) which implies that the farmers have limited understanding of climate change. To further examine the consistency of the respondent’s awareness about climate change, questions related to the concept of climate change was again presented to them. Accordingly, Table 1 revealed that only 41% of them conceptualized climate change as changes in the average weather conditions over extended periods of time (30 years). In this regard, less than half of the respondents correctly explained what climate change all about is while the remaining proportions of the re­ spondents viewed climate change in the form of drought, deforestation and weather conditions. This implies that farmers could not clearly identify the concept of climate change from its cause (deforestations) and impact (drought). This again indicates that rural farming commu­ nities are characterized by some gaps in understanding climate change. Furthermore, smallholder farmers’ awareness about climate change was again examined by using question related to spatial scale of climate change (Table 1). Chi square test result revealed that the difference in smallholder farmers response was statistically significant: awareness about climate change (χ2 ¼ 228.2, df ¼ 1, p ¼ 0.001), the level of awareness about climate change (χ2 ¼ 35.0, df ¼ 2, p ¼ 0.000), aware­ ness about concept of the phrase climate change (χ2 ¼ 66.6, df ¼ 3, p ¼ 0.000) and awareness about the spatial scale of climate change (χ2 ¼ 302.2, df ¼ 3, p ¼ 0.001). This indicated that it was unlikely that the difference in awareness would be due to chance alone. Even though the majorities (64%) of the respondents correctly understand that climate change is a problem occurred to the world nations, large re­ spondents are still characterized by inherent lack of awareness about climate change impacts and also its threat. Moreover, though most of the smallholder farmers in focus group discussions indicated that they are aware of climate change, it has been observed that they have very limited knowledge about it. This was clearly observed while they were trying to explain what climate change is all about. They usually focus on the temperature and rainfall conditions of one or two years to state climate change which do not coincide with existing literatures. Even, it has been observed that some participants equated climate change to deforestations and drought. However, one agricultural extension worker pointed out that having worked with farmers of this district for around

Perceptual statements as indicators of climate change

Agree

Neutral

Disagree

Mean

Score in %

N

%

N

%

N

%

Growing period has been shortened Late rains for a shorter period of time Late rains for a longer period time Early rains for a shorter period of time Early rains for a longer period of time Available water bodies have been decreased Drought occurrences of have been increased Crop diseases have been increased Various levels of floods have been increased Dying of animals have been increased Change in clothing style has been observed Popularity of newly introduced plant species

281

87.0

24

7.4

18

5.6

2.81

93.8

281

87.0

19

5.9

23

7.1

2.80

93.3

270

83.6

29

9.0

24

7.4

2.76

92.1

253

78.3

30

9.3

40

12.4

2.66

88.6

248

76.8

14

4.3

61

18.9

2.58

86.0

243

75.2

5

1.5

75

23.3

2.52

84.0

226

70.0

25

7.7

72

22.3

2.48

82.6

223

69.0

20

6.2

80

24.8

2.44

81.4

191

59.1

28

8.7

104

32.2

2.27

75.6

181

56.0

17

5.3

125

38.7

2.17

72.4

180

55.7

7

2.2

136

42.1

2.14

71.2

161

49.8

33

10.3

129

39.9

2.10

70.0

Note: Agree ¼ 3, Neutral ¼ 2, Disagree ¼ 1 and maximum score is 323*3 ¼ 969. Source: Compiled from survey result.

nine years, I have observed that awareness of farmers about climate change has considerably improved. The mixed feeling of smallholder farmers about climate change is largely attributed to lack of wellorganized information about climate and lack of access to scientific data about the nature of current climate change. Even though the media expected to reach the mass of the communities regarding change of climate and its implications, the majority of rural farming communities do not have access to the electronic media which could another reason for the observed gap. Agricultural extension system is also ineffective in providing relevant and up-to-date climate change information services to remote and poor smallholder farmers. 4.2. Perception of respondents about climate change Regarding the respondent’s general perceptions about climate change, the first question posed to them was aimed at to identify generally whether they observed change of climate or not. Accordingly, out of the total respondents of the study 323 equivalent to 92.1% claimed that they have observed that climate was changed. On the other hand, only 28 respondents equivalent to 7.9% were in the view that climate was not changed so far. The result of the study is in agreement with the findings reported by Mengistu (2011), Chikodzi et al. (2012), Idrisa et al. (2012), Legesse et al. (2013) and Tessema et al. (2013) 4

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leading scientific communities of climate change in its recently released report clearly revealed that the trend of temperature was increasing (IPCC, 2014a).

Table 4 Composite index of perception. Perception of the respondents about climate change

Frequency

Percentage

Positive Negative Mixed feeling

228 74 21

70.6 22.9 6.5

4.4. Indicators of climate change as perceived by respondents Perceptual statements about the indicators were presented to re­ spondents in the form of Likert scale (Table 3). As it has been evident in Table 3 the study result revealed that 87.1% of respondents perceived that growing period of crop has been shortened while 5.6% and 7.6% disagreed and not sure about the statement. The majority (more than 76%) of the respondents also perceived that the variability (late and early) of rainfall nature was considered as the local indictors of changing climate. Decrement of available water bodies and increment of drought occurrences have been also perceived by 75.2% and 70% of the small­ holder farmers of the study area respectively as local indicators of climate change. Their average value of Likert score (more than 2.47) was also relatively high demonstrating that the mentioned indicators were perceived by the majority of the smallholders as further evidenced by the overall cumulative percentage indicating their ranks. It has been also confirmed that the indictors were emphasized during focus group dis­ cussions and interviews. Though majority of respondents revealed their agreement to all perceptual statements, there were large minority of respondents that either stated neutral or disagreed to the statements revealing a significant gap in understanding the local indicators of climate change. For instance, popularity of newly introduced plant species, change in clothing style, dying of animals and increment of flooding levels were not understand by relatively large group of re­ spondents (Table 3). Composite index of respondent’s perception was shown in Table 4. Out of the total respondents, 228 of them equivalent to 70.6% had positive perception that climate is changed. In other words, their response towards the indictors of climate change is in line the scientific findings about climate change. Similarly, 74 respondents representing 22.9% had negative perception about climate. This means they were in the view that climate was not changed. The remaining 21 respondents equivalent to 6.5% were characterized by the mixed feeling about the nature of climate change. According to the result therefore it was possible to point out that the majority of the rural farming communities of the study area have positive perception about climate change. They generally perceived that climate change is the threat happened to their livelihoods and this is a reference for the ongoing climate change adaptation practices. In general, the majority of smallholder farmers have understood the major local indicators of climate change which was in line with several scientific findings. Food shortages in Africa were largely attributed to the change in climate (FAO, 2008) and this change will further result into the reduction of crop growing season (Collier et al., 2008). According to Boko et al. (2007), the prevalence of agri­ cultural insects, pests, weed, fungi and others have strong attachment to changing condition of climate thereby negatively influencing crop pro­ duction. Literatures also predicted that due to the changing of climate the occurrences of floods, drought and other weather extreme events

Source: Compiled from survey result.

indicating that that majority of the respondents of different areas have noticed the change of climate. 4.3. Pattern of rainfall and temperature as perceived by respondents As it indicated in Table 2 out of the respondents who reported change of climate, the majorities (84.6%) of them reported that rainfall trend was decreasing over the last 30 years. According the result of chi square test, difference in smallholder farmers’ perception about rainfall was statistically significant (χ2 ¼ 613.0, df ¼ 3, p ¼ 0.000), indicating that it was unlikely that the difference observed in perceptions could be due to chance. Supporting the decrement of the rainfall trend of the area, the focus group discussants observed unpredictability of rainfall pattern, prevalence of higher frequency of drought, and below the normal amount in study area. The general idea of both respondents of the questionnaires and focus group discussants were further confirmed by the responses of the key informants. Hence, according to the result of key informant interview during the same season the study area was experienced both higher degrees of drought and extreme rainfall which affected largely farming activities of the communities. As it was observed by elderly peoples, the area was getting drier and drier. In line with this, there are studies that support the idea that rainfall trend over past years was decreasing like Legesse et al. (2013) and Tessema et al. (2013). Out of the total household questionnaire respondents who choose climate has already changed, large proportions (69.2%) of them pointed out that they observed that temperature had been rising over the last three decades (Table 2). This implies that the majority of the re­ spondents pointed out that temperature was increasing in their area. The result of chi square demonstrated that the difference in smallholder farmers’ responses was statistically significant (χ2 ¼ 403.6, df ¼ 3, p ¼ 0.000). The implication was that it was unlikely that the difference in temperature perception could be due to chance factor. Additionally, almost all members of the focus group discussions reported that they observed an increasing trend of temperature over the past three decades in their localities. In this context, indicating the reality of temperature increment, one woman from the focus group discussions explained the issue by saying ‘biiftuun gara lafaatti waan gad dhiyaatte fakkaata’ (it mean that it seems that the sun has changed its position nearer to the earth0 s surface). Many research works so far carried out in different parts of Ethiopia (Mengistu, 2011; Legesse et al., 2013; Tessema et al., 2013) have shown that the level of temperature has increased in recent years which are consistent with the current finding. Most importantly, the Table 5 Mean Annual, CV and PCI of seasonal conditions from 1981 to 2016. Rainfall

Parameters

Summer

CV (%) PCI Share (%) CV (%) PCI Mean (mm) CV (%) PCI

Spring Annual

Stations Adama

Koka

Malkassa

Modjo

Walanchiti

Wonji

38.5 11 12.1 92.7 14.2 897.5 118.9 19.3

71.1 11.7 11.4 122.3 15.4 813.8 149.4 22.1

41.3 10.7 10.8 85 4.2 815.5 114.1 18.5

43.5 11 13.6 99.4 14.6 957.9 127.1 20.7

59.7 11.5 11.3 106.4 14.2 897.9 127.9 19.4

42.3 11.2 10.5 85.5 14.6 797.0 114.9 19.4

Source: computed based on raw data taken from NMA of Ethiopia. 5

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Fig. 2. Summer rainfall total of the study area from 1981 to 2016. Source: computed based on raw data taken from NMA of Ethiopia.

will continue to affect the communities (IPCC, 2007b; Collier et al., 2008).

Table 6 Seasons and annual rainfall Mann-Kendall’s trend test results.

4.5. Rainfall and temperature analysis 4.5.1. Precipitation Concentration Index, coefficient of variation and the mean As it was true in other parts of Ethiopia, the main rainy season (summer) which runs from June to September contribute about 70% to the total amounts of rainfall while 23% of the total rainfall came from short rainy season (spring) that happened from February to May (Table 5). The result was in agreement with recent studies carried out in different parts of Ethiopia (Bewket and Conway, 2007; Hadgu et al., 2014; Asfaw et al., 2018) who pointed out that the largest share was came from summer. The stations have no marked differences in the amounts of seasonal rainfall over the studied time periods. According to the result of rainfall variability analysis (Table 5), all the studied stations over the past 36 years were characterized by high rainfall variability and change. For example, the smallest CV was 38.5% at Adama station and the largest recorded was 71.1% at Koka during the main rainy season in study area. However, the value of CV in short rainy season ranges from 85% at Malkassa to 122.3% at Koka signifying that the variability of rainfall was extremely high in study area over the last 36 years. In comparing with the short rainy season, the one documented in main rainy season was relatively smaller indicating that the vari­ ability of rainfall was comparatively smaller. Similarly, in central and north central highlands of Ethiopia more rainfall variability was recor­ ded in short rainy season than that of main rainy season (Alemayehu and Bewket, 2017; Asfaw et al., 2018). Furthermore, the output of this study also agrees with Tura (2017) who reported that extreme rainfall vari­ ability in Rift Valley areas were more experienced in spring season than the summer season. Having annual CV that ranges from 114.1% to 149.4% over the past 36 years, the study area was characterized by very strong rainfall variability that can affect crop production practices of smallholder farmers since they total depend on the rain. In this context the result of the focus group discussions held with smallholder farmers also revealed that the rainfall pattern was generally variable and unpredictable. The PCI value of all considered weather station ranges from 10.7 at Malkassa to 11.7 at Koka station. According to classification done by Oliver (1980) the study area was generally characterized by moderate monthly rainfall concentration during the summer season. With excep­ tion of Malakassa station which was characterized by low concentration of monthly rainfall (PCI ¼ 4.2), the remaining stations were grouped under moderate concentration of monthly rainfall. According to the computed value of PCI, the distribution of rainfall was more uniform in

Seasons and Annual

Kendall Score

Kendall’s tau statistic

P value

Summer Spring Annual

9

0.059 0.111 0.045

0.762 0.544 0.327

17 1042

Source: computed based on raw data taken from NMA of Ethiopia.

summer rather than in spring season. Furthermore, annual PCI value indicated in the table revealed that all stations have characterized by irregular distribution of precipitation except Modjo which has 20.7 high concentration of rainfall based on the scale presented by Oliver (1980). The output agrees with the study carried out in Rift Valley area by Gemechu et al. (2015) and Tura (2017) who pointed out that monthly distribution of rainfall was inadequate. Mean annual rainfall of study stations varies from 797 mm in Wonji to 957.9 mm in Modjo. 4.5.2. Summer rainfall Fig. 2 shows summer rainfall distribution over the last 36 years of the study area. According to the time series analysis of summer rainfall data, the slope of the trend line was positive (y ¼ 17.459x þ 3292.5) implying that the summer rainfall total was showing an increasing trend over the last 36 years. The increment trend of summer rainfall was also revealed in the result of Mann Kendall trend test (Table 6). However, according to the result of household questionnaire, the majority of the respondents reported that rainfall was generally decreasing. Most of the farmers who participated in focus group discussion in the study site also perceived that rainfall was decreasing. The observed gap with respect to the trend of rainfall perhaps associated to the recently happened drought events which are fresh in the mind of farmers at the time data collection. The high nature of rainfall variability discussed earlier could also be the factor for the observed discrepancy and the position of this paper is that the rainfall was in its decreasing trend in study area. Analyzing the trend of rainfall from spatial and temporal point of view in Rift Valley areas for the last 30 years (1984–2013), Gemechu et al. (2015) concluded that the seasonal rainfall was increasing. 4.5.3. Spring rainfall Fig. 3 shows spring rainfall totals over the last 36 years of the study area. As it can be seen from the Fig. 3, the trend of spring rainfall was decreasing roughly by coefficient of 7.8547 having R2 ¼ 0.0251 over the last 36 years with the slope equation (y ¼ 7.8547x þ 1339.5) and similar trend was also revealed by Mann Kendall trend test (Table 6). However, it was not statistically significant which could be attributed to seasonal variability of rainfall. The result an empirical analysis of spring 6

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Fig. 3. Spring rainfall total of the study area from 1981 to 2016. Source: computed based on raw data taken from NMA of Ethiopia.

Fig. 4. Total annual rainfall of the study area from 1981 to 2016. Source: computed based on raw data taken from NMA of Ethiopia.

rainfall was in line with the perception of the respondents participated in this study. Similarly, according to the result of study carried out by Gemechu et al. (2015) the spring rainfall has been decreased from 1984 to 2013. It was also similar with the result of (Kassie et al., 2014).

4.5.4. Total annual rainfall Regarding the trend analysis of total annual rainfall of the study area over the past 36 years, it exhibited an increasing trend with strong annual variability which was confirmed by trend line equation (Fig. 4). With slope equation of y ¼ 16.216x þ 4879.7, the coefficient was pos­ itive and the increment was approximately by 16.216 having R2 value of

Fig. 5. Annual mean temperature of the study area from 1981 to 2016. Source: computed based on raw data taken from NMA of Ethiopia. 7

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Weather and Climate Extremes xxx (xxxx) xxx

0.0295. Similarly according to the result Man Kendall, it was in an increasing trend (Table 6) even though it was contrary to the views of most of the respondents participated in this study. In addition to pre­ viously explained, the reason for the gap would be that rural farming communities mostly evaluate the nature of rainfall with respect to yield and needs of crop at specific period while ground station data took into consideration large and total events and conditions of the parameters under consideration which could make the difference. However, the result of statistical analysis was in agreement with Gemechu et al. (2015) who described that annual rainfall was showing an increasing trend in rift valley region.

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4.5.5. Temperature analysis and its trends As it was indicated in Fig. 5 the higher mean annual temperature was recorded in 1982, 1983, 1984, 1992, 2009 and 2015 while the lower was happened in 1981, 1986, 1996, 2005 and 2011. Statistical analysis of annual mean temperature was depicted an increasing trend and compared with the views of the respondents. Accordingly, the obser­ vations made by the majority respondents were in line with the statis­ tical analysis. This indicates that the study area was characterized by relatively high evapotranspiration due the fact that mean annual tem­ perature is relatively high. This implies that surface water availability is adversely influenced which further negatively affect the moisture con­ tent of the soil thereby affecting crop production of the rural farming societies. 5. Conclusion and recommendation Even though most of rural farming communities of study area claimed that they were aware of climate change, they were generally characterized by some gaps in understanding what climate change all about is. Most of their definitions were not in line with the theoretical definition of climate change implying that they have limited knowledge about it. The majorities of the smallholder farmers perceived that tem­ perature was increasing while rainfall was showing decreasing trend. Their perception about temperature was supported by Man Kendall trend test. However, the result of Man Kendall trend test about rainfall was not in line with the respondents’ perception. Most of the small­ holder farmers’ perception about the local indictors of climate was in line with several scientific outputs. It is also important to enhance awareness of rural farming communities about climate change by providing training and also raising awareness on issues related to climate change through provision of well-organized learning materials. Moreover, it is essential to update the knowledge and skill of agricultural extension agents for improving climate information services in rural remote areas. This would help smallholder farmers of study area to get relevant and up-to-date information about climate change and its im­ pacts. In addition, agricultural extension works should get adequate supply of motor cycles, bicycles, horses and other materials like statio­ neries and offices. For these facilities, meteorological services, agricul­ tural and natural resource offices, microfinance services, adult literacy facilities, education system and others should work together. Declaration of competing interest Declaration of interest is none. Acknowledgment We acknowledge the financial support we obtained from Arsi Uni­ versity for this manuscript. We would like to thank various institutions like Adama district agricultural offices, national meteorological agency and its branch office for providing us the required data. We are also very grateful for the smallholder farmers of the Adama district for responding to our questionnaires. 8

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Weather and Climate Extremes xxx (xxxx) xxx Hurgesa Hundera is an assistant professor in Department of Geography and Environ­ mental Studies, Arsi University, Ethiopia. He obtained BED Degree in Geography as major and Economics as minor from Bahir Dar University in 2006 and MA Degree in Physical Geography from the same University in 2010. He also obtained his MSC Degree in Earth Sciences specialization in Geographic Information System and Remote Sensing from Addis Ababa University in 2016. His research areas are land use and land cover change, climate change adaptation, ecosystem management, climate smart agriculture

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Prof Sylvester Mpandeli is an Executive Manager at the Water Research Commission (WRC). He joined the WRC as a Researcher Manager in 2013. He is an Adjunct Professor at the University of Venda, School of Environmental Sciences since 2013. He worked at the Agricultural Research Council – Institute for Soil, Climate and Water (ARC-ISCW) for 9 years. He serves as a Board Member of the ACCESS, Advisory Board Member of the Joint Programme Initiative (JPI) of the European Commission (EC) from 2019 to 2022, member of the International Executive Council (IEC) of the International Commission on Irrigation and Drainage (ICID) from 2013 till to date, and as a Specialist Advisor to the Department of Environmental from 2009 to 2012 and later as Director responsible for Climate Change Adaptation sectors from 2012 to 2013. He has earned the following degrees in between 1997 & 2006, Bachelor in Agriculture from University of Venda (1997), two honours degrees in Horticulture and Land Use Planning from the University of Pretoria in 1998 & 2002, Masters degree in Irrigation and Agronomy in 2001 from University of Pretoria, Doctor of Philosophy in Climatology from University of Witwatersrand in 2006. He has been involved in Research & Development and Innovation for the past 20 years focusing on Agriculture, Water and Environmental sectors. His particular areas of interest are climate change adaptation, food security, water -energy -food nexus, agricultural water manage­ ment etc. He has published 2 books and over 100 scientific articles, conference /workshop proceedings, technical reports. He has been an external examiner at the Universities of KwaZulu -Natal, North West, Venda, Wits and Unisa. Amare Bantider (PhD). PhD on Geography and Natural Resources Management from the University of Bern Switzerland, currently Director for Natural Resource Governance and Socioeconomic Research Division, Water and Land Resource Centre (Addis Ababa Uni­ versity), and Associate Professor of Geography and Natural Resource Management, Col­ lege of Development Studies, Addis Ababa University. His research interest lies on watershed management, integrated landscape management, ecosystem services, land use and land cover change, climate change and society, and soil and water management. He has more than 20 years of research and teaching experience at higher learning institutions of Ethiopia since 1997. Supervised several MSc and PhD research in broader fields of land resource management including watershed management, climate change adaptation, land use and land cover change, food security studies and soil and water conservation activities. He also authored and co-authored papers and published in peer reviewed journals as well as Book chapters. Successfully coordinated several research projects in the field of Sus­ tainable Land Management.

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