- Email: [email protected]
Soviet grain
Viewpoint enough to resist effectively by holding off the market. In the years ahead the stage could be set for a further confrontation between the poorer countries, led by Morocco the dominant supplier to Europe, seeking more reward for providing an essential raw material and the consumer countries determined not to be blackmailed. The outcome could well depend on the general progress in com-
modity trading towards the establishment of a new economic order with primary producers refusing to be exploited any longer as in the past. Unfortunately the biggest losers in any struggle, as with oil, are likely to be the poorer developing countries who in the long run represent the biggest potential market for phosphate rock but may have to pay dearly for essential imports necessary to increase food production.
Viewpoint The editors arguments issues.
of Food Policy welcome and counter-arguments
contributions
on important
to this section
presenting
and topical developments
and
Soviet grain Since the publication of Professor Nove’s article (Food Policy, November 1975), the Soviet five-year plan for 1976-1980 has become known in its broad outlines, and there are additional points which can be usefully made to complete the estimates of future Soviet grain requirements and their impact inside and outside the USSR. The new five-year plan envisages an annual average grain production of 215220 M tons, starting with a target of 206 M tons for 1976. This year’s target, if achieved, would be the second highest Russian grain crop ever, and some 66 M tons higher than last year’s crop. The new target therefore implies a major increase on the yearly average of 182 M tons actually produced during the fiveyear plan in 1971-1975. It is also based on the assumption that generally good climatic conditions will prevail throughout the coming quinquennium, and that the average crop will approach the record harvest in 1973 of 222.5 M tons. This crop surprised everyone, including the Russians themselves, and created storage problems throughout the Soviet Union. In addition, the proportion of grain needed for animal feed is high because of the lack of feed compounding techniques in the Soviet Union - grain is fed to the animals straight, without additives. It is estimated that the Soviets use 30.40% more grain per ton of animal protein produced than the West
FOOD POLICY August 1976
European average. There will also be problems arising out of shortage of labour: a point Professor Nove made well and at length. Perhaps I should add, that, judged on past performance, the improvement of mechanisation of Soviet agriculture may be slower than the Soviet leaders hope for. For instance, the last plan provided for an increase of 25% in the fleet of tractors used in agriculture, while the number of tractor drivers increased by less than 10% in that period.
Imports Taking the known variables into consideration, it may be that Soviet imports of grain will be in excess of 8-10 M tons per year. Certainly, internal Soviet estimates of grain requirements are known to be even higher than the maximum target figures in the new plan. If the present patterns and standards of food consumption are to be maintained, purchases on the Western markets of 15 M tons per annum may become necessary. Even these purchases will be below Soviet requirements. There are, however, two key factors which should be taken into consideration, in connection with any estimate of Soviet imports of grain. Last year’s record purchases of some 30 M tons stretched Russia’s financial resources, and went beyond
It is obvious that phosphate rock prices will have to be sustained at a substantially higher level than previously if sufficient supplies are to be forthcoming to meet increasing world demand. However, it does seem unlikely that a producers cartel situation will develop for phosphate rock, even though in many ways it is almost an equally important raw material as oil.
the capacity of her ports. The US Department of Commerce for instance reported that the Soviets imported only slightly over 9 M tons in 1975, thereby shifting the bulk of deliveries to 1976 and even to 1977. The capacity of Soviet ports appears to have been overextended in recent months, and some of the deliveries had to be routed through West European ports. Decisions on imports of grain will be influenced by two key considerations: the actual need for such imports, and the state of the balance of Soviet foreign trade. After a small surplus in 1974 in the Soviet trade balance with the developed countries of the West of some $140 M, the 1975 balance was estimated as a $4.5 billion deficit. (East-
West Monthly Report, Nos 25 & 26, Brussels). Grain imports, however, appeared to account for only about one-third of the deficit. Lower exports of those materials from which the Soviets had hoped to benefit after the energy and raw materials crisis in 1973, underestimates of domestic and of other socialist countries’ needs, and higher imports of Western technology, were the main factors which accounted for the deficit. At present the Russians may find it difficult to finance any additional imports out of their foreign currencies’ reserves; decisions on additional imports of grain will have to be made on the basis of foreign trade balance, rather than on the basis of the consumers’ needs and the established patterns of consumption. It should also be said that the analysis of East European trends in agriculture and the food industries has been one of the more neglected subjects in the West - usually taking a poor second or third place after the consideration of transfers of technology or of cooperation of industry. While a
351
Meetings
number of conferences on industrial cooperation between the West and the East have taken place recently, there has been no equivalent meeting on agriculture and the food industries.
Meetings
A new study
organisers
0 To the markets in analyse COMECON countries for products directly or indirectly related to the food and agricultural industries. 0 To assess the development of the food and drink processing industries in relation to their export potential to Western markets. The study contains three main sections: 1. COMECON five-year plans and economic prospects, 1976-1980. 2. Agriculture and its supporting industries. 3. Food processing and its related sectors. As a multi-client project, special subsidiary reports will be made available to individual clients which relate to their market priorities in specific terms.* In addition, the study will include a analysis of case study unique COMECON export pricing policies in the food and drink sectors. There will also be a first-ever interpretative presentation of new and detailed statistical data relating agriculture and food and drink products. It is envisaged that the study will be completed by the end of September 1976. Z.A.B. Zeman, East- West SPRL, Brussels.
*For further details, please contact Kelsey van Musschenbroek, 11 Bolt Court, Fleet Street, London EC4, UK. (Telephone: Ol353 5547).
of events
is based
and from secondary
on all meetings
Careful analyses of this subject, such as Professor Nove’s, are rare. It is against this background that Canadean Ltd of London, and East-West SPRL of Brussels, have decided to launch a major multi-client study of East European agriculture and food industries. The study covers the 7 members of COMECON (USSR, Bulgaria, Czechoslovakia, German Democratic Republic, Hungary, Poland, Romania) and Yugoslavia. Its main objectives are:
352
This calendar
on information
sources.
FOOD
provided
POLICY
by the respective
welcomes
information
relevant to food policy for listing in this section.
September 6-10, 1976, Braunschweig, FR. Germany. International symposium on SOIL ORGANIC MATTER studies. Snonsors. Food & Agriculture Organisation/Inter~ national Atomic Energy Agency, contact Conference Service Section, IAEA, PO Box 590, A-101 1 Vienna, Austria. September 6-I 1. 1976, Namur, Belgium International 8th Congress on CYBERNETICS. Contact the Secretariat of the Association for Cybernetics, Palais des Expositions, Place Andre Rijckmans, B5000, Namur, Belgium. September 7-10.1976, Warsaw, Poland. International Symposium on Advances in SMOKING OF FOODS. Contact, Prof H.J. Bielig, Technische Univ Berlin, Inst fuer Lcbensmittel-technologie, Konigin-luisestr 22, 1 Berlin 33 (West). September 7-l I, 1976, Ilhaca, NY, USA. Third Symposium on VEGETABLE STORAGE of the International Society for Horticultural Science: Contact Dr F.M. Isenberg, 102B E. Robert Hall, Cornell University, Ithaca, NY, USA. September 8-9,1976, Uppsala, Sweden Annual Meeting of the Scandinavian Committee on FOOD ANALYSIS. Contact Nordiska Metodik-kommitten for Livsmedel, Svenska Nationalkommitteen, Box 622, S-75 I,26 Uppsala, Sweden. September 9-10.1976,
Brighton, UK. POVERTY AND AGRIBUSINESS: A New Situation. Contact Prof. Michael Lipton, Institute of Development Studies, University of Sussex, Brighton, BN 1 9RE, UK.
Conference on RURAL
September 14-I 7.1976, Munich, FRG 2nd European NUTRITION Conference. Contact Dr A. Jansen, Medizinische Poliklinik der Universitat, D8000 Miinchen, 2 Pettenkoferstrasse 8a, Federal Republic of Germany. October 17-22. 1976. Sydney, Australia Eighth International Conference of
the
International Association on WATER Contact, POLLUTION RESEARCH. Office of the Secretariat, GPO Box 2909, Sydney, NSW 2001, Australia.
November 8-26.1976, India Training Course on the APPLICATION OF NUCLEAR TECHNIQUES IN AGRICULTURE Sponsors, International Atomic Energy contact Agency, Fellowships & Training Courses Section, IAEA, PO Box 590, A-101 1 Vienna, Austria.
December 3.1976, London, UK Nutrition Society Symposium NUTRITION AND FOOD SAFETY. Contact Dr D.J. Sutton, Honorary Programmes Secretary, National Institute for Research in Dairying, Shinfield, Reading, RG2 9AT, UK.
January 31.February 4, 1977, Vienna, Austria International symposium on the USE OF INDUCED MUTATIONS FOR IMPROVING DISEASE RESISTANCE IN CROP PLANTS. Contact IAEA, Kartner Ring 11, PO Box 590, A-1011, Vienna, Austria.
February ll-18,1977, Canberra, Australia 3rd Congress of the Society for the ADVANCEMENT OF BREEDING RESEARCHES IN ASIA AND OCEANIA: (SABRAO). Contact The Congress, Secretary, 3rd SABRAO CSIRO., Box 225, P.O., Dickson A.C.T. 2602, Australia.
March 7-18. 1977, Mar de1 Plats, Argentina UN WATER Conference. Contact the Acting Secretary, Thomas W. Oliver, Centre for Economic and Social Information, UN, New York, NY, USA.
May 4-10, 1977, Sydney, Australia 7th International Congress of DIETETICS. Contact The Secretary, The British Dietetic Association, 305 Daimler House, Paradise Street, Birmingham B 1 2BJ, UK.
FOOD
POLICY
August
1976
modity trading towards the establishment of a new economic order with primary producers refusing to be exploited any longer as in the past. Unfortunately the biggest losers in any struggle, as with oil, are likely to be the poorer developing countries who in the long run represent the biggest potential market for phosphate rock but may have to pay dearly for essential imports necessary to increase food production.
Viewpoint The editors arguments issues.
of Food Policy welcome and counter-arguments
contributions
on important
to this section
presenting
and topical developments
and
Soviet grain Since the publication of Professor Nove’s article (Food Policy, November 1975), the Soviet five-year plan for 1976-1980 has become known in its broad outlines, and there are additional points which can be usefully made to complete the estimates of future Soviet grain requirements and their impact inside and outside the USSR. The new five-year plan envisages an annual average grain production of 215220 M tons, starting with a target of 206 M tons for 1976. This year’s target, if achieved, would be the second highest Russian grain crop ever, and some 66 M tons higher than last year’s crop. The new target therefore implies a major increase on the yearly average of 182 M tons actually produced during the fiveyear plan in 1971-1975. It is also based on the assumption that generally good climatic conditions will prevail throughout the coming quinquennium, and that the average crop will approach the record harvest in 1973 of 222.5 M tons. This crop surprised everyone, including the Russians themselves, and created storage problems throughout the Soviet Union. In addition, the proportion of grain needed for animal feed is high because of the lack of feed compounding techniques in the Soviet Union - grain is fed to the animals straight, without additives. It is estimated that the Soviets use 30.40% more grain per ton of animal protein produced than the West
FOOD POLICY August 1976
European average. There will also be problems arising out of shortage of labour: a point Professor Nove made well and at length. Perhaps I should add, that, judged on past performance, the improvement of mechanisation of Soviet agriculture may be slower than the Soviet leaders hope for. For instance, the last plan provided for an increase of 25% in the fleet of tractors used in agriculture, while the number of tractor drivers increased by less than 10% in that period.
Imports Taking the known variables into consideration, it may be that Soviet imports of grain will be in excess of 8-10 M tons per year. Certainly, internal Soviet estimates of grain requirements are known to be even higher than the maximum target figures in the new plan. If the present patterns and standards of food consumption are to be maintained, purchases on the Western markets of 15 M tons per annum may become necessary. Even these purchases will be below Soviet requirements. There are, however, two key factors which should be taken into consideration, in connection with any estimate of Soviet imports of grain. Last year’s record purchases of some 30 M tons stretched Russia’s financial resources, and went beyond
It is obvious that phosphate rock prices will have to be sustained at a substantially higher level than previously if sufficient supplies are to be forthcoming to meet increasing world demand. However, it does seem unlikely that a producers cartel situation will develop for phosphate rock, even though in many ways it is almost an equally important raw material as oil.
the capacity of her ports. The US Department of Commerce for instance reported that the Soviets imported only slightly over 9 M tons in 1975, thereby shifting the bulk of deliveries to 1976 and even to 1977. The capacity of Soviet ports appears to have been overextended in recent months, and some of the deliveries had to be routed through West European ports. Decisions on imports of grain will be influenced by two key considerations: the actual need for such imports, and the state of the balance of Soviet foreign trade. After a small surplus in 1974 in the Soviet trade balance with the developed countries of the West of some $140 M, the 1975 balance was estimated as a $4.5 billion deficit. (East-
West Monthly Report, Nos 25 & 26, Brussels). Grain imports, however, appeared to account for only about one-third of the deficit. Lower exports of those materials from which the Soviets had hoped to benefit after the energy and raw materials crisis in 1973, underestimates of domestic and of other socialist countries’ needs, and higher imports of Western technology, were the main factors which accounted for the deficit. At present the Russians may find it difficult to finance any additional imports out of their foreign currencies’ reserves; decisions on additional imports of grain will have to be made on the basis of foreign trade balance, rather than on the basis of the consumers’ needs and the established patterns of consumption. It should also be said that the analysis of East European trends in agriculture and the food industries has been one of the more neglected subjects in the West - usually taking a poor second or third place after the consideration of transfers of technology or of cooperation of industry. While a
351
Meetings
number of conferences on industrial cooperation between the West and the East have taken place recently, there has been no equivalent meeting on agriculture and the food industries.
Meetings
A new study
organisers
0 To the markets in analyse COMECON countries for products directly or indirectly related to the food and agricultural industries. 0 To assess the development of the food and drink processing industries in relation to their export potential to Western markets. The study contains three main sections: 1. COMECON five-year plans and economic prospects, 1976-1980. 2. Agriculture and its supporting industries. 3. Food processing and its related sectors. As a multi-client project, special subsidiary reports will be made available to individual clients which relate to their market priorities in specific terms.* In addition, the study will include a analysis of case study unique COMECON export pricing policies in the food and drink sectors. There will also be a first-ever interpretative presentation of new and detailed statistical data relating agriculture and food and drink products. It is envisaged that the study will be completed by the end of September 1976. Z.A.B. Zeman, East- West SPRL, Brussels.
*For further details, please contact Kelsey van Musschenbroek, 11 Bolt Court, Fleet Street, London EC4, UK. (Telephone: Ol353 5547).
of events
is based
and from secondary
on all meetings
Careful analyses of this subject, such as Professor Nove’s, are rare. It is against this background that Canadean Ltd of London, and East-West SPRL of Brussels, have decided to launch a major multi-client study of East European agriculture and food industries. The study covers the 7 members of COMECON (USSR, Bulgaria, Czechoslovakia, German Democratic Republic, Hungary, Poland, Romania) and Yugoslavia. Its main objectives are:
352
This calendar
on information
sources.
FOOD
provided
POLICY
by the respective
welcomes
information
relevant to food policy for listing in this section.
September 6-10, 1976, Braunschweig, FR. Germany. International symposium on SOIL ORGANIC MATTER studies. Snonsors. Food & Agriculture Organisation/Inter~ national Atomic Energy Agency, contact Conference Service Section, IAEA, PO Box 590, A-101 1 Vienna, Austria. September 6-I 1. 1976, Namur, Belgium International 8th Congress on CYBERNETICS. Contact the Secretariat of the Association for Cybernetics, Palais des Expositions, Place Andre Rijckmans, B5000, Namur, Belgium. September 7-10.1976, Warsaw, Poland. International Symposium on Advances in SMOKING OF FOODS. Contact, Prof H.J. Bielig, Technische Univ Berlin, Inst fuer Lcbensmittel-technologie, Konigin-luisestr 22, 1 Berlin 33 (West). September 7-l I, 1976, Ilhaca, NY, USA. Third Symposium on VEGETABLE STORAGE of the International Society for Horticultural Science: Contact Dr F.M. Isenberg, 102B E. Robert Hall, Cornell University, Ithaca, NY, USA. September 8-9,1976, Uppsala, Sweden Annual Meeting of the Scandinavian Committee on FOOD ANALYSIS. Contact Nordiska Metodik-kommitten for Livsmedel, Svenska Nationalkommitteen, Box 622, S-75 I,26 Uppsala, Sweden. September 9-10.1976,
Brighton, UK. POVERTY AND AGRIBUSINESS: A New Situation. Contact Prof. Michael Lipton, Institute of Development Studies, University of Sussex, Brighton, BN 1 9RE, UK.
Conference on RURAL
September 14-I 7.1976, Munich, FRG 2nd European NUTRITION Conference. Contact Dr A. Jansen, Medizinische Poliklinik der Universitat, D8000 Miinchen, 2 Pettenkoferstrasse 8a, Federal Republic of Germany. October 17-22. 1976. Sydney, Australia Eighth International Conference of
the
International Association on WATER Contact, POLLUTION RESEARCH. Office of the Secretariat, GPO Box 2909, Sydney, NSW 2001, Australia.
November 8-26.1976, India Training Course on the APPLICATION OF NUCLEAR TECHNIQUES IN AGRICULTURE Sponsors, International Atomic Energy contact Agency, Fellowships & Training Courses Section, IAEA, PO Box 590, A-101 1 Vienna, Austria.
December 3.1976, London, UK Nutrition Society Symposium NUTRITION AND FOOD SAFETY. Contact Dr D.J. Sutton, Honorary Programmes Secretary, National Institute for Research in Dairying, Shinfield, Reading, RG2 9AT, UK.
January 31.February 4, 1977, Vienna, Austria International symposium on the USE OF INDUCED MUTATIONS FOR IMPROVING DISEASE RESISTANCE IN CROP PLANTS. Contact IAEA, Kartner Ring 11, PO Box 590, A-1011, Vienna, Austria.
February ll-18,1977, Canberra, Australia 3rd Congress of the Society for the ADVANCEMENT OF BREEDING RESEARCHES IN ASIA AND OCEANIA: (SABRAO). Contact The Congress, Secretary, 3rd SABRAO CSIRO., Box 225, P.O., Dickson A.C.T. 2602, Australia.
March 7-18. 1977, Mar de1 Plats, Argentina UN WATER Conference. Contact the Acting Secretary, Thomas W. Oliver, Centre for Economic and Social Information, UN, New York, NY, USA.
May 4-10, 1977, Sydney, Australia 7th International Congress of DIETETICS. Contact The Secretary, The British Dietetic Association, 305 Daimler House, Paradise Street, Birmingham B 1 2BJ, UK.
FOOD
POLICY
August
1976