- Email: [email protected]
Space: a challenge for Europe
UTTERWORTH IN E M A
N
Space Policy 1995 11 (4) 227 232
N
0265-9646(95)00020--8
Elsevier Science Limited Printed in Great Britain 0265-9646/95/$10.00
Viewpoint
Space: a challenge for Europe Eurospace
This Viewpoint presents an industrial perspective of the policies needed to support and advance the capabilities and competitiveness of the European space industry. It is argued that Europe needs a coordinated longterm space policy to help create the climate in which industry can invest in and exploit space. Europe must also accelerate the development of advanced technology products and services, improve its competitiveness in applications and commercial markets including launchers, and secure fair and reliable international partnerships in in-orbit infrastructure and manned space activities. To this end European governments are urged to acknowledge the increasing political, economic and military importance of space and their continuing governance of space activities, and to establish mechanisms that promote industrial competitiveness; the development of the commercial sector; autonomy in key technologies; and international partnerships which are fair and affordable. Eurospace is the European space industry organisation, with members drawn from the major space companies in the continent. Its headquarters are at 16bis avenue Bosquet, 75007 Paris, France. This is an edited version of a policy statement issued by the organisation in 1995.
SPACE
POLICY November 1995
Space is going through a period of major re-evaluation and change. It is no longer driven by the political and military rivalries of the Cold War, and governments are reviewing their space aspirations and budgets. In this period of change, European space needs major re-orientation if it is to retain an autonomous capability in up-stream technologies to the year 2000 and beyond. Nevertheless, space remains a strategic asset for Europe in political, economic and military terms and access to space and its related technologies presents unique opportunities for wealth creation, scientific advance and social change. Space activities have evolved in five inter-related but distinctive fields. These comprise space science, orbital infrastructure including manned space activities, civil/commercial applications and military applications. The fifth field and common to all of the others, is that of launchers. Looking briefly at each field, space science is and should remain at the core of European programmes, not only in expanding people's understanding of the universe, but also to spur technological innovation. As to the large and ambitious programmes around crewed space missions, these are under economic pressure today. Nevertheless, this is the area in which international cooperation is most active. Europe has built up a broad and sound competence in the development
and utilisation of automated platforms and manned systems and must continue to play its part in this field if it is to remain in the forefront of international space. In the field of launchers, Europe enjoys world leadership with Ariane 4, which is foremost in the commercial launch market. Ariane 5 will soon take over this commercial market while offering expanded capability to support manned and large infrastructure missions. Today, the focus of European space activity is being drawn towards civil and military markets, principally in Earth observation, communications and satellite navigation. Consequently, this is where European space needs to be strong and active in fighting off foreign competition and to earn its keep. It is the area where the future health and success of Europe's space endeavours will be measured. But the attainment by Europe of an equitable share of these, the world's largest and richest space markets, will demand a fully concerted and coordinated European response.
T h e industrial scene Europe has achieved a significant place in the development of space, largely through the work of ESA but also through the organisations it has spawned such as Arianespace, Eumetsat, and Eutelsat. The European in-
227
A challengefor Europe: Eurospace
3O
/
2O
$Bn 10 MilJtar T
Government Civil
....T.c,.,/ ..2 US
EUROPE
J ~
Figure 1. International comparative space expenditure 1992. dustry currently has a turnover of some ECU 6 billion and employs around 31 000 people. The total value of European space activities in the public and private sectors, including value-added business and services in TV and telecommunications, is estimated to exceed ECU 18 billion today, with commercial space one of Europe's fastest growing industrial areas. To maintain and expand this growth past the turn of the millennium, however, some key challenges have to be faced, including that of continued public sector support in research and technology. As a result of government policies which encouraged independent and duplicated national capabilities, by the early 1980s the emerging European industry was seriously fragmented and inevitably faced serious difficulties in competing in the international market place. The success of Ariane demonstrates that Europe can be a world contender in commercial markets when well directed public support is available to meet clear objectives. The picture is less encouraging in the satellite communications market (both the space and ground segments), where the relatively small size and fragmentation of the European home market, coupled with the 10 year US lead in a deregulated domestic environment, present major problems. Europe has also secured broad and sound competence in the Earth observation field, but while this market has immense
228
REST OF THE WORLD (e x c lu d in g Russia)
potential it remains largely underdeveloped. Although competition from Japan, Russia and emerging industries elsewhere is becoming more significant, it is the sheer scale of the US industry (which has historically enjoyed massive defence-related government support) that dominates the international space scene. Figure 1 highlights the situation which faces European suppliers in world markets. US national space expenditure is some six times larger than the combined European total. This domestic fortress provides US industry with the base from which it has captured over two-thirds of the world's market in commercial communications satellite systems. All seven of the European commercial TV broadcast satellites are US supplied, and between 1991 and 1992 only two out of 27 international satellites were ordered from European suppliers. Another difficulty for European suppliers is that space equipment is sold in dollars on world markets whereas manufacturing costs have to be met in national currencies. Apart from the risks and insurance costs, this has led to a significant disadvantage for European suppliers compared to their US counterparts, over-riding any advantage Europe might otherwise have enjoyed with its lower labour costs.
Facing these challenges, the major European companies have already taken significant steps towards reduc-
SPACE POLICY November 1995
A challenge for Europe." Eurospace $Bn
Lockheed
Tllr~zover ( f Space Companies
3.0
Post integration
TRW
.
.
.
.
g.c
--
Mc Donnell Douglas
....
1.0 --
. .
.
.
. .
. .
.
.
.
.
SIMS
Aerospatiale* DASA °
....
MMS
BAe
Alcatel
Space
Espace iiii
1993 US
Alenia Spazio
ii i
Matra
Dornier
MBB
ii
Espace
Aerosp~tiale
ii Jlhllii
1989 (Pre-integration)
Alcatel
'~.... E~pace ....
iili
IJJ
1993 *Aerospatiale/DASA of satellite activities
integration
under discussion
Figure 2. Consolidation of European space industry. Aerospatiale/DASA integration of satellite activities is under discussion. ing the fragmentation of industrial effort. Figure 2 shows progress in industrial consolidation via integration of companies to achieve the critical mass needed to compete on world markets; the core of the European industrial structure pre- and post-1989 (right) is contrasted with major US rivals (left). We need to view this industrial progress against the backdrop of the increasing globalisation of space. International cooperation is already well-established in Europe, and closer links with the USA, Russia, and other international space organisations will remain essential for large manned space and infrastructure projects given their scale and investment. Nevertheless, as space becomes more global in its scope and objectives, it is even more important for Europe to retain autonomy in key operational and technical areas, at the same time as it exercises its leading role in world space ventures. Action
lines
Policy issues The role o f governments. World-wide, something like 75% of all space activity remains effectively under government control and funding (the figure is closer to 100% in some countries). Public sector policies therefore exert a wider influence on the space market
SPACE POLICY November 1995
than is the case for industry as a whole, with government acting as a major sponsor of R&D, the principal customer, and as regulator. Governments should recognise that the bulk o f Europe's space activities remain under their control and that they bear a major responsibility for safeguarding Europe's independent space capability.
Industrial strategy. Industry fully recognises its own responsibility for its competitiveness and success in the marketplace. This is clear from the major, often painful reorganisations over the past several years. The process is on-going. Nevertheless, governments can contribute to this drive by changing those structures and practices under their control which impede European competitiveness. Strong leadership from government will give European industry the confidence to invest and work towards profitable and sustainable space businesses. Future success therefore depends on government and industry working as a team. Industry does not look for special treatment - simply a level playing field o f reciprocal trading conditions on world markets. Industry and public agencies must forge closer links - but on the basis o f partnership and not dependency. The future o f ESA. In achieving Europe's base in technological compe-
229
A challenge for Europe: Eurospace
'the scope of the EU's role should be expected to expand'
tence, the first phase of ESA's activity is essentially successful and complete. If ESA is to remain as the mainspring of European space, it must be drawn more effectively into the battle for commercial markets, not least in becoming more competitive as a procurement agency. Looking to the future, the first imperative for ESA is to develop, in partnership with industry, a new approach in its applications t e c h n o l o g y p r o g r a m m e s which emphasises competitiveness and market drive. One important aspect of this approach will be the review of ESA's geographical return rules in the light of recent proposals by industry. The second imperative is to bolster ESA's role as the centrepiece of European participation as full partners with, for example, the US and Russia in affordable international programmes. The 1995 Council of Ministers presents an opportunity for a fundamental review of the Agency's objectives and programmes in the light of the changing space situation, the emergence of other major agencies (the EU, Eutelsat, Eumetsat, WEU, etc) on the European space applications scene, and the pressing need for improvements in competitiveness. ESA must adapt to the changing situation and develop new mechanisms which, while maintaining the Agency's grasp as a world power in scientific, manned space and infrastructure endeavours, focus more on application market requirements and competitiveness.
The role o f the EU. The EU has already gained an important role in space as a technology sponsor through the Framework and other R&D programmes, as a regulator and as a major user. These responsibilities provide both a need and an opportunity for the EU to support European space. As Europe moves progressively towards the commercialisation of space and its integration into the broader socioeconomic fabric of the community, the scope of the EU's role should be expected to expand to keep pace with the changes. An important focus of this expansion of the EU's responsibility should be the encouragement of the commercialisation of Earth observation and the dereg-
230
ulation of space communications under conditions of fair trade. But, foremost, the EU has a unique and vital contribution to bring to the definition and implementation o f a coherent European space policy which would actively encourage both the growth o f space in commercial and public services, and a competitive space industry.
Future programmes To safeguard and maintain its hardwon capabilities, Europe needs a clear and concerted strategy for the direction o f its future space programmes. Earth observation. It is now widely recognised that space techniques are crucial for the systematic monitoring and control of global environmental problems. Europe is already a world leader in the Earth observation field with a range of well proven space platforms and instruments and the associated ground image processing facilities. Earth observation presents another unique and immense space opportunity for Europe, not only in environmental protection and security applications, but also as a developing commercial market. What is now needed is for government and industry in concert to identify customer needs and decide on a strategy aimed at the stimulation of the commercial market and the development of next generation systems. The EU, building on its promising work currently in hand, should initiate the definition o f a European Earth observation strategy and the development o f the market. Satellite communications. National communications monopolies have restricted the growth of Europe's space communications market. This, combined with the clear imbalances in the world market described earlier, has delayed the development of the European market and the competitiveness of industry. Industry strongly supports moves to accelerate deregulation, but it must be implemented in a balanced manner and with broader European interests in mind. The US Department of Commerce has openly expressed US ambitions for world dominance in
SPACE POLICY November 1995
A challenge for Europe: Eurospace
'Space offers unique capabilities to help counter sources of future conflicts'
this area. The scene is thus set for predatory pricing by US companies in an increasingly open European marketplace. The communications sector is crucial to the future of Europe in space, the largest and most secure space market so far, which must be defended. Failure here could threaten the Ariane launcher market. In turn, that could undermine future European autonomy in space. Europe urgently needs to work towards improved industrial competitiveness in this field, based on market focused R&D, market reciprocity versus the US/Japan, and a solution to the dollar exchange problem. Nothing less than a
concerted strategy on the part of national governments, the EU, ESA, Eutelsat, Eumetsat and industry will achieve these objectives, secure a European Eutelsat 3 and underpin the future of European space. This must be the first objective of a European space policy. Satellite navigation.
Satellite based navigation is both a strategic resource and a major new space market. Europe must take urgent action to secure an equitable market share. Inevitably, the GPS system places the US in a dominant position at present. However, governments around the world are unwilling to depend on a military system controlled by a single nation as a long-term solution. There is, again, a unique opportunity for Europe in the development of an interim Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS1) based on GPS/ GLONASS augmented by an Inmarsat 3 overlay and a ground infrastructure. Beyond that ESA's ARTES 9 programme could well define a fully developed GNSS 2 in the next century. To secure the rich benefits, the
EU, ESA and Eurocontrol must act swiftly to promote a strategy whereby Europe gains the technology and a share in the control and exploitation of any future GNSS market. Their urgent and robust action is crucial to Europe's future in this commercial field. Military applications. The Gulf War demonstrated, for the first time, the full potential of space in conventional war. Satellites helped to win the poli-
SPACE POLICY November 1995
tical battle, provided communications, surveillance and navigation, shortened the war and saved lives. The Gulf War also gave a stark demonstration to Europe of the requirement for a theatre level Ballistic Missile Defence (BMD) system. Recent W E U reports indicate that within the next decade, unpredictable nations in the developing world may possess ballistic missiles, possibly with chemical or nuclear warheads, with the range to target Europe. Meanwhile, there is the everpresent risk from unstable successor nations to the former USSR. Space offers unique capabilities to help counter these sources of future conflicts. At a time when there is a growing convergence between civil and military space technologies, Europe cannot afford the relative compartmentalisation of its civil and military agencies. It is, for example, time for an urgent review of ESA's charter to enable cooperation with defence agencies. The potential for
civil~military technology transfer is immense, and European governments should actively encourage civil~military coordination in space. Space infrastructure and manned space systems. The establishment of space infrastructures, manned or unmanned, in low Earth orbit, constitutes a vital element of space research, whether employed as in-orbit laboratories or as a springboard for planetary exploration. The magnitude of these programmes and the global nature of their missions demand that they are executed as international programmes. While the potential implications of these collaborative ventures are immense, they present opportunities as a force for European cohesion and global cooperation and accord. Europe has contributed to such international space research cooperation in the past with the development of Eureca and Spacelab, and gained significant expertise in manned and unmanned systems. Today, E S A m e m b e r n a t i o n s are embarked on the ambitious Colombus programme as a means of sharing access to and utilisation of the International Space Station. This programme has highlighted the political and eco-
231
A challengefor Europe: Eurospace nomic realities and difficulties which attend large international ventures of this kind. Europe should maintain a presence as an equitable partner in this and future international infrastructure/ manned missions both to protect and exploit its earlier investments and to remain in the mainstream of international space.
Launchers. The cost of a launch often exceeds the cost of the satellite itself. Low cost access to orbit is the key to price competitive space systems, as well as to an a u t o n o m o u s capability for E u r o p e in space. It should not be forgotten that the Ariane p r o g r a m m e was started in 1973 when France and G e r m a n y faced difficulties in obtaining a launcher for Symphonie from the U S A ; since then Ariane 4 has captured some 60% of the world's commercial launcher market. Ariane 5 will shortly assert E u r o p e a n leadership both in the commercial market and in providing an increased lift capability for large infrastructure/manned space missions. We must now look to a new generation of launchers to reduce costs dramatically from current levels - the message must be do it cheap, do
232
it often and do it together. The scale and cost of a new launcher project will demand collaboration at the European level, and E S A has the proven technical competence to take the lead. ESA member nations should unite behind the exclusive use of Ariane launchers for all programmes under their control, the evolution of Ariane 5 and, longer term, a future European launchers programme.
A European space policy A b o v e all, E u r o p e needs a fully coordinated, long-term policy for space: a framework within which all sectors of the space community, including the public and private sectors, c o m m e r c e and industry, can best exploit space to serve the needs of society as a whole, especially in the fields of the environm e n t , c o m m u n i c a t i o n s and international security. This cannot be a c h i e v e d by industry unilaterally. Political mechanisms must be established which will allow a truly European space policy to be defined, rather than merely the lowest common denominator of national interests.
SPACE POLICY November 1995
N
Space Policy 1995 11 (4) 227 232
N
0265-9646(95)00020--8
Elsevier Science Limited Printed in Great Britain 0265-9646/95/$10.00
Viewpoint
Space: a challenge for Europe Eurospace
This Viewpoint presents an industrial perspective of the policies needed to support and advance the capabilities and competitiveness of the European space industry. It is argued that Europe needs a coordinated longterm space policy to help create the climate in which industry can invest in and exploit space. Europe must also accelerate the development of advanced technology products and services, improve its competitiveness in applications and commercial markets including launchers, and secure fair and reliable international partnerships in in-orbit infrastructure and manned space activities. To this end European governments are urged to acknowledge the increasing political, economic and military importance of space and their continuing governance of space activities, and to establish mechanisms that promote industrial competitiveness; the development of the commercial sector; autonomy in key technologies; and international partnerships which are fair and affordable. Eurospace is the European space industry organisation, with members drawn from the major space companies in the continent. Its headquarters are at 16bis avenue Bosquet, 75007 Paris, France. This is an edited version of a policy statement issued by the organisation in 1995.
SPACE
POLICY November 1995
Space is going through a period of major re-evaluation and change. It is no longer driven by the political and military rivalries of the Cold War, and governments are reviewing their space aspirations and budgets. In this period of change, European space needs major re-orientation if it is to retain an autonomous capability in up-stream technologies to the year 2000 and beyond. Nevertheless, space remains a strategic asset for Europe in political, economic and military terms and access to space and its related technologies presents unique opportunities for wealth creation, scientific advance and social change. Space activities have evolved in five inter-related but distinctive fields. These comprise space science, orbital infrastructure including manned space activities, civil/commercial applications and military applications. The fifth field and common to all of the others, is that of launchers. Looking briefly at each field, space science is and should remain at the core of European programmes, not only in expanding people's understanding of the universe, but also to spur technological innovation. As to the large and ambitious programmes around crewed space missions, these are under economic pressure today. Nevertheless, this is the area in which international cooperation is most active. Europe has built up a broad and sound competence in the development
and utilisation of automated platforms and manned systems and must continue to play its part in this field if it is to remain in the forefront of international space. In the field of launchers, Europe enjoys world leadership with Ariane 4, which is foremost in the commercial launch market. Ariane 5 will soon take over this commercial market while offering expanded capability to support manned and large infrastructure missions. Today, the focus of European space activity is being drawn towards civil and military markets, principally in Earth observation, communications and satellite navigation. Consequently, this is where European space needs to be strong and active in fighting off foreign competition and to earn its keep. It is the area where the future health and success of Europe's space endeavours will be measured. But the attainment by Europe of an equitable share of these, the world's largest and richest space markets, will demand a fully concerted and coordinated European response.
T h e industrial scene Europe has achieved a significant place in the development of space, largely through the work of ESA but also through the organisations it has spawned such as Arianespace, Eumetsat, and Eutelsat. The European in-
227
A challengefor Europe: Eurospace
3O
/
2O
$Bn 10 MilJtar T
Government Civil
....T.c,.,/ ..2 US
EUROPE
J ~
Figure 1. International comparative space expenditure 1992. dustry currently has a turnover of some ECU 6 billion and employs around 31 000 people. The total value of European space activities in the public and private sectors, including value-added business and services in TV and telecommunications, is estimated to exceed ECU 18 billion today, with commercial space one of Europe's fastest growing industrial areas. To maintain and expand this growth past the turn of the millennium, however, some key challenges have to be faced, including that of continued public sector support in research and technology. As a result of government policies which encouraged independent and duplicated national capabilities, by the early 1980s the emerging European industry was seriously fragmented and inevitably faced serious difficulties in competing in the international market place. The success of Ariane demonstrates that Europe can be a world contender in commercial markets when well directed public support is available to meet clear objectives. The picture is less encouraging in the satellite communications market (both the space and ground segments), where the relatively small size and fragmentation of the European home market, coupled with the 10 year US lead in a deregulated domestic environment, present major problems. Europe has also secured broad and sound competence in the Earth observation field, but while this market has immense
228
REST OF THE WORLD (e x c lu d in g Russia)
potential it remains largely underdeveloped. Although competition from Japan, Russia and emerging industries elsewhere is becoming more significant, it is the sheer scale of the US industry (which has historically enjoyed massive defence-related government support) that dominates the international space scene. Figure 1 highlights the situation which faces European suppliers in world markets. US national space expenditure is some six times larger than the combined European total. This domestic fortress provides US industry with the base from which it has captured over two-thirds of the world's market in commercial communications satellite systems. All seven of the European commercial TV broadcast satellites are US supplied, and between 1991 and 1992 only two out of 27 international satellites were ordered from European suppliers. Another difficulty for European suppliers is that space equipment is sold in dollars on world markets whereas manufacturing costs have to be met in national currencies. Apart from the risks and insurance costs, this has led to a significant disadvantage for European suppliers compared to their US counterparts, over-riding any advantage Europe might otherwise have enjoyed with its lower labour costs.
Facing these challenges, the major European companies have already taken significant steps towards reduc-
SPACE POLICY November 1995
A challenge for Europe." Eurospace $Bn
Lockheed
Tllr~zover ( f Space Companies
3.0
Post integration
TRW
.
.
.
.
g.c
--
Mc Donnell Douglas
....
1.0 --
. .
.
.
. .
. .
.
.
.
.
SIMS
Aerospatiale* DASA °
....
MMS
BAe
Alcatel
Space
Espace iiii
1993 US
Alenia Spazio
ii i
Matra
Dornier
MBB
ii
Espace
Aerosp~tiale
ii Jlhllii
1989 (Pre-integration)
Alcatel
'~.... E~pace ....
iili
IJJ
1993 *Aerospatiale/DASA of satellite activities
integration
under discussion
Figure 2. Consolidation of European space industry. Aerospatiale/DASA integration of satellite activities is under discussion. ing the fragmentation of industrial effort. Figure 2 shows progress in industrial consolidation via integration of companies to achieve the critical mass needed to compete on world markets; the core of the European industrial structure pre- and post-1989 (right) is contrasted with major US rivals (left). We need to view this industrial progress against the backdrop of the increasing globalisation of space. International cooperation is already well-established in Europe, and closer links with the USA, Russia, and other international space organisations will remain essential for large manned space and infrastructure projects given their scale and investment. Nevertheless, as space becomes more global in its scope and objectives, it is even more important for Europe to retain autonomy in key operational and technical areas, at the same time as it exercises its leading role in world space ventures. Action
lines
Policy issues The role o f governments. World-wide, something like 75% of all space activity remains effectively under government control and funding (the figure is closer to 100% in some countries). Public sector policies therefore exert a wider influence on the space market
SPACE POLICY November 1995
than is the case for industry as a whole, with government acting as a major sponsor of R&D, the principal customer, and as regulator. Governments should recognise that the bulk o f Europe's space activities remain under their control and that they bear a major responsibility for safeguarding Europe's independent space capability.
Industrial strategy. Industry fully recognises its own responsibility for its competitiveness and success in the marketplace. This is clear from the major, often painful reorganisations over the past several years. The process is on-going. Nevertheless, governments can contribute to this drive by changing those structures and practices under their control which impede European competitiveness. Strong leadership from government will give European industry the confidence to invest and work towards profitable and sustainable space businesses. Future success therefore depends on government and industry working as a team. Industry does not look for special treatment - simply a level playing field o f reciprocal trading conditions on world markets. Industry and public agencies must forge closer links - but on the basis o f partnership and not dependency. The future o f ESA. In achieving Europe's base in technological compe-
229
A challenge for Europe: Eurospace
'the scope of the EU's role should be expected to expand'
tence, the first phase of ESA's activity is essentially successful and complete. If ESA is to remain as the mainspring of European space, it must be drawn more effectively into the battle for commercial markets, not least in becoming more competitive as a procurement agency. Looking to the future, the first imperative for ESA is to develop, in partnership with industry, a new approach in its applications t e c h n o l o g y p r o g r a m m e s which emphasises competitiveness and market drive. One important aspect of this approach will be the review of ESA's geographical return rules in the light of recent proposals by industry. The second imperative is to bolster ESA's role as the centrepiece of European participation as full partners with, for example, the US and Russia in affordable international programmes. The 1995 Council of Ministers presents an opportunity for a fundamental review of the Agency's objectives and programmes in the light of the changing space situation, the emergence of other major agencies (the EU, Eutelsat, Eumetsat, WEU, etc) on the European space applications scene, and the pressing need for improvements in competitiveness. ESA must adapt to the changing situation and develop new mechanisms which, while maintaining the Agency's grasp as a world power in scientific, manned space and infrastructure endeavours, focus more on application market requirements and competitiveness.
The role o f the EU. The EU has already gained an important role in space as a technology sponsor through the Framework and other R&D programmes, as a regulator and as a major user. These responsibilities provide both a need and an opportunity for the EU to support European space. As Europe moves progressively towards the commercialisation of space and its integration into the broader socioeconomic fabric of the community, the scope of the EU's role should be expected to expand to keep pace with the changes. An important focus of this expansion of the EU's responsibility should be the encouragement of the commercialisation of Earth observation and the dereg-
230
ulation of space communications under conditions of fair trade. But, foremost, the EU has a unique and vital contribution to bring to the definition and implementation o f a coherent European space policy which would actively encourage both the growth o f space in commercial and public services, and a competitive space industry.
Future programmes To safeguard and maintain its hardwon capabilities, Europe needs a clear and concerted strategy for the direction o f its future space programmes. Earth observation. It is now widely recognised that space techniques are crucial for the systematic monitoring and control of global environmental problems. Europe is already a world leader in the Earth observation field with a range of well proven space platforms and instruments and the associated ground image processing facilities. Earth observation presents another unique and immense space opportunity for Europe, not only in environmental protection and security applications, but also as a developing commercial market. What is now needed is for government and industry in concert to identify customer needs and decide on a strategy aimed at the stimulation of the commercial market and the development of next generation systems. The EU, building on its promising work currently in hand, should initiate the definition o f a European Earth observation strategy and the development o f the market. Satellite communications. National communications monopolies have restricted the growth of Europe's space communications market. This, combined with the clear imbalances in the world market described earlier, has delayed the development of the European market and the competitiveness of industry. Industry strongly supports moves to accelerate deregulation, but it must be implemented in a balanced manner and with broader European interests in mind. The US Department of Commerce has openly expressed US ambitions for world dominance in
SPACE POLICY November 1995
A challenge for Europe: Eurospace
'Space offers unique capabilities to help counter sources of future conflicts'
this area. The scene is thus set for predatory pricing by US companies in an increasingly open European marketplace. The communications sector is crucial to the future of Europe in space, the largest and most secure space market so far, which must be defended. Failure here could threaten the Ariane launcher market. In turn, that could undermine future European autonomy in space. Europe urgently needs to work towards improved industrial competitiveness in this field, based on market focused R&D, market reciprocity versus the US/Japan, and a solution to the dollar exchange problem. Nothing less than a
concerted strategy on the part of national governments, the EU, ESA, Eutelsat, Eumetsat and industry will achieve these objectives, secure a European Eutelsat 3 and underpin the future of European space. This must be the first objective of a European space policy. Satellite navigation.
Satellite based navigation is both a strategic resource and a major new space market. Europe must take urgent action to secure an equitable market share. Inevitably, the GPS system places the US in a dominant position at present. However, governments around the world are unwilling to depend on a military system controlled by a single nation as a long-term solution. There is, again, a unique opportunity for Europe in the development of an interim Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS1) based on GPS/ GLONASS augmented by an Inmarsat 3 overlay and a ground infrastructure. Beyond that ESA's ARTES 9 programme could well define a fully developed GNSS 2 in the next century. To secure the rich benefits, the
EU, ESA and Eurocontrol must act swiftly to promote a strategy whereby Europe gains the technology and a share in the control and exploitation of any future GNSS market. Their urgent and robust action is crucial to Europe's future in this commercial field. Military applications. The Gulf War demonstrated, for the first time, the full potential of space in conventional war. Satellites helped to win the poli-
SPACE POLICY November 1995
tical battle, provided communications, surveillance and navigation, shortened the war and saved lives. The Gulf War also gave a stark demonstration to Europe of the requirement for a theatre level Ballistic Missile Defence (BMD) system. Recent W E U reports indicate that within the next decade, unpredictable nations in the developing world may possess ballistic missiles, possibly with chemical or nuclear warheads, with the range to target Europe. Meanwhile, there is the everpresent risk from unstable successor nations to the former USSR. Space offers unique capabilities to help counter these sources of future conflicts. At a time when there is a growing convergence between civil and military space technologies, Europe cannot afford the relative compartmentalisation of its civil and military agencies. It is, for example, time for an urgent review of ESA's charter to enable cooperation with defence agencies. The potential for
civil~military technology transfer is immense, and European governments should actively encourage civil~military coordination in space. Space infrastructure and manned space systems. The establishment of space infrastructures, manned or unmanned, in low Earth orbit, constitutes a vital element of space research, whether employed as in-orbit laboratories or as a springboard for planetary exploration. The magnitude of these programmes and the global nature of their missions demand that they are executed as international programmes. While the potential implications of these collaborative ventures are immense, they present opportunities as a force for European cohesion and global cooperation and accord. Europe has contributed to such international space research cooperation in the past with the development of Eureca and Spacelab, and gained significant expertise in manned and unmanned systems. Today, E S A m e m b e r n a t i o n s are embarked on the ambitious Colombus programme as a means of sharing access to and utilisation of the International Space Station. This programme has highlighted the political and eco-
231
A challengefor Europe: Eurospace nomic realities and difficulties which attend large international ventures of this kind. Europe should maintain a presence as an equitable partner in this and future international infrastructure/ manned missions both to protect and exploit its earlier investments and to remain in the mainstream of international space.
Launchers. The cost of a launch often exceeds the cost of the satellite itself. Low cost access to orbit is the key to price competitive space systems, as well as to an a u t o n o m o u s capability for E u r o p e in space. It should not be forgotten that the Ariane p r o g r a m m e was started in 1973 when France and G e r m a n y faced difficulties in obtaining a launcher for Symphonie from the U S A ; since then Ariane 4 has captured some 60% of the world's commercial launcher market. Ariane 5 will shortly assert E u r o p e a n leadership both in the commercial market and in providing an increased lift capability for large infrastructure/manned space missions. We must now look to a new generation of launchers to reduce costs dramatically from current levels - the message must be do it cheap, do
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it often and do it together. The scale and cost of a new launcher project will demand collaboration at the European level, and E S A has the proven technical competence to take the lead. ESA member nations should unite behind the exclusive use of Ariane launchers for all programmes under their control, the evolution of Ariane 5 and, longer term, a future European launchers programme.
A European space policy A b o v e all, E u r o p e needs a fully coordinated, long-term policy for space: a framework within which all sectors of the space community, including the public and private sectors, c o m m e r c e and industry, can best exploit space to serve the needs of society as a whole, especially in the fields of the environm e n t , c o m m u n i c a t i o n s and international security. This cannot be a c h i e v e d by industry unilaterally. Political mechanisms must be established which will allow a truly European space policy to be defined, rather than merely the lowest common denominator of national interests.
SPACE POLICY November 1995