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SpaceX Mars plan is clever but unconvincing
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Petros Sekeris is a game theorist at Montpellier Business School, France
But if bees do have this type of consciousness, that might not mean that all insects do. We may hope that mosquitoes, flies and ants don’t, so we can get rid of them without worrying about inflicting pain. And being capable of suffering would not grant insects a right to life. What it would mean is that we should reconsider how we stop them biting us or contaminating food, so we minimise any pain we may cause. n Peter Singer is professor of bioethics at Princeton University. Ethics in the Real World, a selection of his essays, is out now (Princeton University Press)
INSIGHT Colonising Mars
Bloomberg via Getty Images
the right circumstances, and everything suggests that this is the right approach here. Invoking Article 50 immediately would have put the UK in a weak position, because Europe needs to be tough in the face of the threat of rising right-wing extremism. So when is the optimum date to trigger Article 50? In mid-2019, EU parliamentary elections will take place and EU budgets will be decided by the Commission. While in the EU, the UK has a veto over the budget, and 10 per cent of the European Parliament’s MEPs. Still being “in” Europe then would win the UK added leverage. There is also the chance that positions in France and Germany will soften after elections – in spring and early autumn 2017 – as the need to impress voters who want to see Brexit punished fades. Invoking Article 50 should ideally be done no earlier than May 2017 to retain influence in EU elections and budget-setting and to be close enough to German and French elections to minimise their influence. Will declaring Article 50 sooner, as Theresa May pledged, hit hopes of an optimal UK deal? All will be revealed by spring 2019. n
–Musk’s mission improbable–
SpaceX Mars plan is clever but unconvincing Lisa Grossman
His only mention of growing food on Mars assumed that we had already terraformed the planet. He was vague on how the settlers would generate energy. He said nothing about Martian dust, which covers solar panels and could harm astronauts. When asked about health risks in transit, Musk suggested they would be minor. That runs counter to data from the Curiosity rover, which found that a round trip to Mars would expose astronauts to seven times the radiation dose they would get during six months on the International Space Station – well over NASA’s safety limits.
ELON MUSK has unveiled a spectacular plan to send humans to Mars, but I am not convinced he can really pull it off. Last week at the International Astronautical Congress in Guadalajara, Mexico, the SpaceX founder laid out his vision for building the largest rocket ever, to launch a 100-person spaceship on an 80-day trip to Mars. Once at the Red Planet, the spaceship will land on its feet using retro-rockets, and the astronauts will emerge on to a cold, dusty world. Meanwhile, the spaceship will make its own methane fuel for a return journey to pick up more settlers. Musk “Spend your life savings on a one-way cruise, followed also plans to send supplies to Mars by a lifetime of physical every two years, starting in 2018. labour? Sign me up” Much of this strikes me as clever and innovative, but it may not be enough. Musk wants to send the first It may be that none of these issues humans in roughly 2024, although he are showstoppers for SpaceX. But was “intentionally a bit fuzzy about equally they seem not to be the first this timeline”. That only gives SpaceX problems on Musk’s list. And that’s odd, three chances to launch enough kit. considering his Mars colony is meant This is where the plan breaks down. to be humanity’s back-up plan. Musk seems to think his job stops once “The thing that Mars really people reach Mars, and that keeping represents is life insurance, ensuring them alive is someone else’s problem. that the light of consciousness is not
extinguished, backing up the biosphere,” he said. “It’s not about everybody moving to Mars, it’s about becoming multiplanetary.” So who will found this brave new world? The rich. Musk hopes to get the cost of a ticket to Mars down to around $200,000 and described the trip as a luxury cruise, with restaurants, movies and zero-G games. But life on the Red Planet will be much less cushy: “Mars will have a labour shortage for a long time so jobs will not be in short supply,” he said. So, you spend your life savings on a one-way Musk cruise, followed by a lifetime of physical labour on a cold, airless desert? Sign me up. That’s not Musk’s vision, of course. SpaceX’s video of the plan ends with Mars quickly growing more blue and lush, as if by magic. But if we are going to assume future magical terraforming powers, I would rather we apply them to the one planet we can already live on, and keep Earth habitable. And who will pay for all of this? Musk said the initial mission will cost around $10 billion, and wants backers for a public-private partnership. Still, even talking about sending humans to Mars in a semi-realistic way is thrilling. Musk is highly driven and while vague, his plan is not impossible. I doubt he will keep to that 2024 timeline, though. Musk himself admits that staying on schedule is not his forte. Even his talk started half an hour late. n 8 October 2016 | NewScientist | 21
Petros Sekeris is a game theorist at Montpellier Business School, France
But if bees do have this type of consciousness, that might not mean that all insects do. We may hope that mosquitoes, flies and ants don’t, so we can get rid of them without worrying about inflicting pain. And being capable of suffering would not grant insects a right to life. What it would mean is that we should reconsider how we stop them biting us or contaminating food, so we minimise any pain we may cause. n Peter Singer is professor of bioethics at Princeton University. Ethics in the Real World, a selection of his essays, is out now (Princeton University Press)
INSIGHT Colonising Mars
Bloomberg via Getty Images
the right circumstances, and everything suggests that this is the right approach here. Invoking Article 50 immediately would have put the UK in a weak position, because Europe needs to be tough in the face of the threat of rising right-wing extremism. So when is the optimum date to trigger Article 50? In mid-2019, EU parliamentary elections will take place and EU budgets will be decided by the Commission. While in the EU, the UK has a veto over the budget, and 10 per cent of the European Parliament’s MEPs. Still being “in” Europe then would win the UK added leverage. There is also the chance that positions in France and Germany will soften after elections – in spring and early autumn 2017 – as the need to impress voters who want to see Brexit punished fades. Invoking Article 50 should ideally be done no earlier than May 2017 to retain influence in EU elections and budget-setting and to be close enough to German and French elections to minimise their influence. Will declaring Article 50 sooner, as Theresa May pledged, hit hopes of an optimal UK deal? All will be revealed by spring 2019. n
–Musk’s mission improbable–
SpaceX Mars plan is clever but unconvincing Lisa Grossman
His only mention of growing food on Mars assumed that we had already terraformed the planet. He was vague on how the settlers would generate energy. He said nothing about Martian dust, which covers solar panels and could harm astronauts. When asked about health risks in transit, Musk suggested they would be minor. That runs counter to data from the Curiosity rover, which found that a round trip to Mars would expose astronauts to seven times the radiation dose they would get during six months on the International Space Station – well over NASA’s safety limits.
ELON MUSK has unveiled a spectacular plan to send humans to Mars, but I am not convinced he can really pull it off. Last week at the International Astronautical Congress in Guadalajara, Mexico, the SpaceX founder laid out his vision for building the largest rocket ever, to launch a 100-person spaceship on an 80-day trip to Mars. Once at the Red Planet, the spaceship will land on its feet using retro-rockets, and the astronauts will emerge on to a cold, dusty world. Meanwhile, the spaceship will make its own methane fuel for a return journey to pick up more settlers. Musk “Spend your life savings on a one-way cruise, followed also plans to send supplies to Mars by a lifetime of physical every two years, starting in 2018. labour? Sign me up” Much of this strikes me as clever and innovative, but it may not be enough. Musk wants to send the first It may be that none of these issues humans in roughly 2024, although he are showstoppers for SpaceX. But was “intentionally a bit fuzzy about equally they seem not to be the first this timeline”. That only gives SpaceX problems on Musk’s list. And that’s odd, three chances to launch enough kit. considering his Mars colony is meant This is where the plan breaks down. to be humanity’s back-up plan. Musk seems to think his job stops once “The thing that Mars really people reach Mars, and that keeping represents is life insurance, ensuring them alive is someone else’s problem. that the light of consciousness is not
extinguished, backing up the biosphere,” he said. “It’s not about everybody moving to Mars, it’s about becoming multiplanetary.” So who will found this brave new world? The rich. Musk hopes to get the cost of a ticket to Mars down to around $200,000 and described the trip as a luxury cruise, with restaurants, movies and zero-G games. But life on the Red Planet will be much less cushy: “Mars will have a labour shortage for a long time so jobs will not be in short supply,” he said. So, you spend your life savings on a one-way Musk cruise, followed by a lifetime of physical labour on a cold, airless desert? Sign me up. That’s not Musk’s vision, of course. SpaceX’s video of the plan ends with Mars quickly growing more blue and lush, as if by magic. But if we are going to assume future magical terraforming powers, I would rather we apply them to the one planet we can already live on, and keep Earth habitable. And who will pay for all of this? Musk said the initial mission will cost around $10 billion, and wants backers for a public-private partnership. Still, even talking about sending humans to Mars in a semi-realistic way is thrilling. Musk is highly driven and while vague, his plan is not impossible. I doubt he will keep to that 2024 timeline, though. Musk himself admits that staying on schedule is not his forte. Even his talk started half an hour late. n 8 October 2016 | NewScientist | 21