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Spatial and temporal dynamics of land use pattern in District Swat, Hindu Kush Himalayan region of Pakistan
Applied Geography 31 (2011) 820e828
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Spatial and temporal dynamics of land use pattern in District Swat, Hindu Kush Himalayan region of Pakistan Muhammad Qasim a, *, Klaus Hubacek a, b, Mette Termansen a, c, Ahmad Khan d a
Sustainability Research Institute, School of Earth and Environment, University of Leeds, LS2 9JT, United Kingdom Department of Geography, 2181 LeFrak Hall, University of Maryland, College Park, MD 20742, United States c University of Aarhus, National Environment Research Institute, Department of Policy Analysis, Frederiksborgvej 399, 4000 Roskilde, Denmark d The Pakistan Wetlands Programme, House No. 3, Street No. 4, F-7/3, Islamabad, Pakistan b
a b s t r a c t Keywords: Spatial analysis Land use change Land degradation Remote sensing GIS Deforestation Swat Pakistan
District Swat is a part of the high altitude Hindu Kush Himalaya (HKH) region of Pakistan comprising a diverse set of biophysical, ecological and socio-economic characteristics. Analysis of land cover data of this region is particularly important because of disparate accounts on the state of forest resources of Pakistan in general and Swat in particular. Mainly official Pakistani sources frequently claim that Pakistan’s forests have been progressively increasing as a result of afforestation efforts and increasing environmental awareness. On the other hand, a number of studies and international statistics have reported significant deforestation in Pakistan. To resolve this uncertainty this paper documents the land use dynamics from three ecological zones of district Swat over four decades using aerial photographs and remote sensing data for the years 1968, 1990 and 2007. Analysis of land use and cover change in Swat, over this time period, shows drastic changes in the landscape. In Kalam; the forest zone of the district, forest area is decreased by 30.5%; with 11.4% of the deforestation caused by agricultural expansion. Simultaneously, a marked reduction in the agricultural area was observed with 17.3% of the agricultural area converted to rangeland. In Malamjaba, the agro-forest zone of the district, agricultural land expanded by 77.6% between 1968 and 1990 but then shrunk by 4.1% between 1990 and 2007. Forest cover in this zone decreased 49.7% over the last 40 years. In the Barikot region (agro-scrub forest zone), forest cover decreased from covering 32.7% of the total area of the zone in 1968 to 9.5% in 2007, whereas the built up areas increased by 161.4% over the four decades; and agricultural land expanded by 129.9% consuming 12.7% and 18.96% of forest area between 1968 and 1990, and between 1990 and 2007, respectively. Annual deforestation rates observed were 1.86% (scrub forest zone), 1.28% (agro-forest zone) and 0.80% (pine forest zone) in the respective areas of district Swat. Expansion of agriculture has mainly been achieved at the expense of forested areas, with only negligible accounts of afforestation from 1968 to 2007. We conclude that despite frequent claims of forest increase in Swat, the valuable coniferous forest has significantly decreased, frequently leading to land degradation. The current trend is therefore alarming and calls for increased policy action to increase protection of the remaining forest resources which otherwise might follow a similar fate. Ó 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Introduction Age-old local and regional land use practices such as clearing forested land to grow crops, building houses or road construction have accumulated to become a global issue (Acevedo et al., 2008; Ramankutty & Foley, 1999; Turner, Moss, & Skole, 1993). The global forest cover is reported to be 3952 million ha, which is about * Corresponding author. Tel.: þ44 1133431182; fax: þ44 1133435259. E-mail addresses: [email protected], [email protected] (M. Qasim). 0143-6228/$ e see front matter Ó 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. doi:10.1016/j.apgeog.2010.08.008
30% of the world’s land area, but between 2000 and 2005 gross deforestation occurred at a rate of 12.9 million hectares per year (FAO, 2006). This was mainly a result of converting forests to agricultural land, but also due to expansion of settlements, infrastructure, and intensive logging practices (FAO, 2006). Researchers have documented that the continuous and rapid increase in the rate of land use and cover change (LUCC) represents a major global environmental challenge (Acevedo et al., 2008; Baskent & Kadiogullari, 2007; Houghton, 1994; Lambin et al., 2001; Ojima, Galvin, &Turner, 1994; Walker, 2003). There are numerous studies on land cover and land use change in both developed and
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developing countries such as Bangladesh (Dewan & Yamaguchi, 2009), Nepal (Dongol, Hughey, & Bigsby, 2002), India (Bawa, Joseph, & Setty, 2007), China (Chen, Wang, Fu, & Qiu, 2001), Thailand (Crews-Meyer, 2004), Kenya (Serneels & Lambin, 2001), Turkey (Baskent & Kadiogullari, 2007), Egypt (Shalaby & Tateishi, 2007), Canada (Pan, Domon, de Blois, & Bouchard, 1999) reflecting the importance of land as a finite resource and fundamental factor of production and contributor to livelihoods. These vital contributions are threatened by the extent of deforestation. Furthermore, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) described deforestation as one of the most significant contributors to greenhouse gas emissions, contributing close to 20 percent of the overall greenhouse gases entering the atmosphere (Fischlin, 2008, 3 pp.; for an example at the local level see GómezMendoza, Vega-Peña, Isabel Ramírez, Palacio-Prieto, & Galicia, 2006). Due to continuous land degradation and associated environmental issues, many developed countries have adopted effective strategies regarding land use change and forest protection. As a result significant increase in the forest cover in many developed countries was observed over the last couple of years. For example,
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in Spain forest areas increased by 33% and in China by 25.6% between 1990 and 2005 (FAO, 2005). The picture is less positive in developing countries although outliers such as India reported a remarkable increase (of 3,762,000 ha) in its forests over the same period, whereas for other developing countries such as Brazil, Mexico and Nepal huge deforestation was observed (e.g., 25.5% of the forests disappeared in Nepal between 1990 and 2005). Pakistan is no exception, but perhaps surprisingly, there are two very different accounts regarding the trends in the forest resources of Pakistan. It is often argued that forest resources of the country have been increasing, as a result of afforestation, agro-forestry and reduction in illegal logging. This is supported by government statistics, which have shown a marked increase in the forest cover area, e.g., a 21.13% increase from 1947 to 1994 in the forest cover (UNEP & ICIMOD, 1998, pp. 29e31). Similarly, for the district Swat, an 8.79% increase in forest cover has been reported from 1996 to 2000 (GoNWFP, 2008). In contrast to these statistics, other studies have reported significant deforestation due to large scale exploitation of forest resources, partly illegal agricultural expansion and fuel wood collection in deprived rural areas (Ali, Shabaz, & Suleri, 2006; Shabaz & Ali, 2006). This evidence for a high rate of
Fig. 1. District Swat location in HKH region.
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Fig. 2. Land use and land cover maps of Kalam region (1968e2007).
deforestation is also supported by FAO estimates (2005) reporting a 24.73% decrease in the total forest area of Pakistan between 1990 and 2005. Between 1981 and 1990 a 0.6% per year decrease was reported by Environment Assessment Programme for Asia and the Pacific (UNEP & ICIMOD, 1998, pp. 29e31). Similarly, Brown and Durst (2003) reported a national deforestation rate of 1.5% per year for the 1990s. To date the discrepancies in deforestation in Pakistan have not yet been quantitatively resolved despite the availability of technologies such as remote sensing (RS) and Geographic Information Systems (GIS). Without quantifying the rate and amount of land cover change over time, it is difficult to understand the historic and ongoing land use dynamics and forest conversions. It is therefore important to document temporal and spatial aspects of land use changes to help assess current trends and contributing processes. Particularly where contradicting evidence exists it is important to resolve these in order to inform discussions on future land use and environmental policies. In this study we focus on district Swat (Fig. 1), as the region has the highest cover of temperate coniferous forest in the region, of high importance for local communities and due to the growing concerns that the forests in the area are under severe threat (Ali et al., 2006; FAO, 2005). Furthermore, processes occurring in the Swat district can be seen to represent socio-economic and environmental issues relevant on a wider geographical scale (Khan, 2004). Very few land use change studies have been carried out in Pakistan in general e and for Swat in particular; and none of these studies have focused on a regional scale analysis of land use change
over a long time period. This study fills this gap through a comprehensive analysis of land use change using old aerial photographs, satellite images and GIS techniques. The aim of this study is to explore the dynamics of land use change that has occurred in the region. By tracing the change in use of each parcel of land we aim to reveal the underlying drivers for land use change. This will generate a more accurate and nuanced representation of the development that is not apparent in aggregate (and frequently contradictory) statistics of land use types in the region. For this purpose we created land use maps for 1968, 1990 and 2007 based on old aerial photographs and satellite images and then detected and quantified the changes over a period of 4 decades (1968e2007). With this analysis we quantify the rate and patterns of change and compare them with the governmental statistics to provide a current assessment of the state of forest resources in the region and the trends in deforestation rates. Finally, we discuss the implications this has for the assessment of the current threat to the forest resources in the area. Methods An overview of the study area This study was carried out in district Swat, a mountainous part of the North West Frontier Province (NWFP) that consists of many valleys with scrub and/or coniferous forests on the upper slopes and alpine pastures on the ridges. The area of district Swat is 5037 km2 and total population is 1.25 million (GoP, 1999). The average population density is 248/km2. The district is located
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Fig. 3. Land use and land cover maps of Malamjaba region (1968e2007).
between 34 300 0000 to 35 500 0000 N and 72 050 0000 to 72 500 0000 E. with altitudinal variation cover the ranges between 500 and 6500 m above sea level. For the purpose of this study Swat can be divided into three regions based on dominant land cover type (see Fig. 1). Kalam region (the forest zone) is situated in northern Swat. The region is dominated by coniferous forests and alpine pastures. The elevation goes as high as 6500 m above sea level. The area has a lower population density and a less developed infrastructure compared to the mid and lower regions. Malamjaba region (the agro-forest zone) is part of the middle areas of district Swat where the main vegetation cover is agriculture and pine forest. Agriculture is more dominant than forest and the area has a few big settlements but is less densely populated than southern region. The elevation ranges between 1000 and 2000 m above sea level. Barikot region (the scrub forest zone) comprises the southern part of the district. The area is densely populated and has a more developed infrastructure. The major vegetation cover is agricultural crops and scrub forest. Study area selection The area was selected on the basis of the following characteristics. Firstly, the region has the highest cover of temperate coniferous forest in the country and province, which as mentioned earlier is under heavy deforestation pressure. Secondly, despite having valuable commercial forest resources Swat is thought to be one of the most disadvantaged areas. Thirdly, Swat has three
different topographic/ecological zones, and thus provides grounds for comparison between the three different ecological zones, which in turn increase the scope of the study as the results would be a representative for similar eco-zones within the Hindu Kush Himalayan region. Time periods selection The data starts with the baseline of October 1968 which forms natural starting point given that in 1969 the then Swat State (princely state) was merged with Pakistan. The next data point selected was 1990, with approximately 2 decades gap which is considered as transition period during which a few important institutional changes took place and several development projects were carried out in the area such as the Rural Development Project, the Project for Horticulture Promotion and the Kalam Integrated Development Project. These projects mostly focussed on community development, agriculture and road infrastructure, which are often considered as important drivers for land use change. The last data point is 2007, which is the latest available data. Thus the data covers a period of about four decades. The time period between 1968 and 1990 is referred to as period 1 and the period between 1990 and 2007 as period 2. Developing land use maps Remote sensing techniques using aerial photographs and satellite images are one of the most effective methods for documenting the rate and pattern of land use change and can provide
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Fig. 4. Land use and land cover maps of Barikot region (1968e2007).
information to help resolve controversies about future management directions (Cohen, Spies, & Fiorella, 1995). Aerial photographs and satellite images are useful for assessments of regions natural resource stocks at a particular time as well as quantitative evaluation of land use and cover change over a specified time period. A combined use of RS and GIS technologies therefore can be invaluable to address a wide variety of resources management problems including land use and cover changes (e.g., Gautam, Webb, Shivakoti, & Zoebisch, 2003, Kadiogullari & Baskent, 2008; Skole & Tucker, 1993; Tekle & Jedlund, 2000). ArcGIS (ArcMap) was used for developing digital land use and cover maps for 5 land cover types: forestland, agricultural land, rangeland, built up areas, and area covered by snow at the time of the data recording and therefore included as an additional land cover type for Kalam region. The aerial photographs were scanned and mosaic files were created for each area, these were then georectified using ArcMap. Finally, land use and land cover maps were developed using the geo-rectified old aerial photographs and the satellite images via the polygon formation technique in ArcMap for each of the three zones and time periods. All polygon maps were converted to raster maps, then using ArcGIS the maps from the different points in time i.e., 1968, 1990 and 2007 were overlaid, and the areas converted from one land cover type to another were computed using raster calculator. The total area of district Swat is about 5037 km2. The ideal situation would have been to map and analyze the whole area. Unfortunately the aerial photographs, which have been used as baseline, were not available for the whole Swat. In order to track land use change for a long period of time it was necessary to select
areas within the three vegetation zones. Thus approximately 250 km2 areas from each zone have been mapped. The sampling is taking into account that district Swat is a narrow elongated valley and a river (river Swat) flowing from north to south divides the valley into roughly two equal parts. Thus a cross section selected from each vegetation zone comprising areas on both sides of the river provides good samples to represent the whole district. Results Overall temporal land cover statistics of the three zones The land use change maps (Figs. 2e4) show two strong trends: increasing fragmentation from 1968 to 2007 and change in land cover types especially decrease in forest area (70.9% in Barikot region) and increase in agriculture (202.6% Kalam region) and built up area (216.1% in Malamjaba) see Table 1. The temporal analysis of land use and cover maps between 1968 and 2007 (Figs. 2e4) reveals the dynamics of the land use transformation, by identifying the amount of land changing from one land cover type to any other. Data regarding the temporal transitions among all different cover types are given in Tables 2e4. Land use and cover changes in Kalam region Forest area in Kalam region decreased 30.5% (Table 1) in forty years, of which 6.61 and 4.81% (Table 2) decrease was due to agriculture expansion in period 1 and 2, respectively. A significant agricultural area contraction was observed as well, as 12.39% of
Barikot zone c
161.4 129.9 70.9 0.9 54.5 e
Malamjaba zone b
216.1 70.3 49.7 4.6 6.7 e 106.3 202.6 30.5 158.7 40.0 80.8 66.1 4.1 14.6 5.6 10.8 e 4.9 39.2 9.5 44.7 1.7 e
25.0 156.4 14.7 100.7 26.6 59.2
90.3 77.6 41.2 0.9 4.7 e 2.9 29.6 16.2 49.4 1.9 e 1.9 17.5 32.6 44.3 3.7 e
56.8 73.3 50.3 10.5 48.9 e
65.0 18.0 18.4 28.8 18.2 52.9
66.7 32.7 41.5 9.4 11.1 e
Kalam zone a Malamjaba zone b
%Change 1990e2007
Kalam zone a Barikot zone c Malamjaba zone b
%Change 1968e1990
Kalam zone a 1990 % cover 1968 % cover
agriculture areas were converted to rangeland in period 1 and 4.85% in period 2. This is a typical change frequently observed in Hindu Kush Himalayan region when the top productive soil is eroded during agricultural practices on marginal land and steep slopes. During the whole study period we could also observe a large increase in the area classified as rangeland (158.7%) mainly due to a smaller area covered in snow in the later recordings (see Fig. 2).
In Malamjaba region, which is part of the agro-forestry zone, drastic changes were observed in agriculture, forest and built up areas. Agricultural land expanded by 77.6% in period one but shrunk by 4.1% in the later two decades (Table 1, and Fig. 3). The decrease in agricultural area in period 2 was due to a 6.2% conversion to built up areas and another 13.52% of its area been converted to rangeland (Table 3). Forest areas decreased by 49.7% (Table 1) over the time period; 11.52% of the forest clearance was due to conversion to agricultural land and most of the remainder was converted to rangeland (Table 3). At the same time we observed forest area gains of 13.41% from land previously classified as rangeland in period 1 and 0.41% converted from agricultural land in period 2 (Table 3). Land use changes in Barikot region The data regarding land cover types of Barikot region (Table 1 and Fig. 4) show that over 40 years the built up areas grew by 161.4%, about a third of which took place since 1990. Forest cover decreased from 78.1 km2 (32.7% of the total area of the zone) in 1968e22.7 km2 in 2007 indicating a total loss of 70.9% of forest areas in that zone. Total agricultural expansion was 129.9%, partly at the expense of previously forested land as 12.7% and 18.96% of forest area in period one and two respectively, were converted to agricultural use. The data in Table 4 show that 22.2% and 13.22% of agricultural land was not cultivable anymore and changed to rangeland in the two periods respectively and another 3.71% and 4.67% of agriculture was converted into built up area. At the same time agriculture expanded on 26.0% of rangeland in period one and 25.1% in period two. Afforestation took place with 6.19% on agricultural land and with 9.41% on rangeland over the entire time period.
0.7 3.0 43.1 20.5 0.6 32.1
0.8 7.7 36.7 41.2 0.4 13.2
1.3 9.0 30.0 53.2 0.4 6.1
1.4 16.9 33.8 46.6 1.3 e
2.6 30.0 19.9 46.2 1.3 e
4.3 28.8 17.0 48.7 1.2 e
Discussion
Built up Agriculture Forest Rangeland Water area Snow area
1990 % cover
2007 % cover
1990 % cover 1968 % cover 1968 % cover
2007 % cover
2007 % cover
Barikot region 239 km2 Malamjaba region 235 km2 Kalam region 261 km2
Land Cover Type
Table 1 Land use changes across the zones and across the time periods in district Swat.
825
Land use and cover changes in Malamjaba region
Barikot zone c
Total %change
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The land use and land cover maps of district Swat between 1968 and 2007 show a drastic transformation in the landscape. Spatial and temporal databases used for assessing the overall trends of change in landscape structure showed a significant decrease in forests and increase in agriculture and built up areas. The lowest rate of deforestation observed is a 30.5% reduction in forest cover in Kalam region, although the rate of deforestation has been accelerating. The highest rate of deforestation observed was with 70.9% in the Barikot region probably driven by the fact that the region is densely populated with a number of urban centres and an extensive road network. We also observe a stark conversion from area under water to agricultural land by building retaining walls against the river water. Similarly, previously used rangelands (small areas surrounded by river water) were brought under agricultural use. Such retaining walls were specifically found in Barikot region, which had more investments to create agricultural land and improvements towards more mechanized agriculture. The land cover changes were different quite different in 1968e1990 from 1990 to 2007. Agricultural area expanded mainly in the first study period, with the highest change observed in Kalam region, the forest zone of the district. In all three zones the main
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Table 2 Percent inter changes in land cover types in Kalam region. Built-up
Agriculture Forests Rangelands Water Snow
Agriculture
Forests
Rangeland
Water
Snow
P1
P2
P1
P2
P1
P2
P1
P2
P1
P2
P1
P2
3.03 0.14 0.37 0.65 0.00
5.54 0.17 0.06 0.96 0.00
e 6.61 12.34 16.99 0.00
e 4.81 0.90 5.76 0.00
15.99 e 27.72 3.26 5.44
0.09 e 0.34 1.92 0.08
12.39 23.86 e 3.26 53.54
4.85 13.94 e 4.84 59.30
0.00 0.00 0.00 e 0.00
0.00 0.00 0.00 e 0.00
0.00 0.01 1.24 0.00 e
0.00 0.04 1.92 0.00 e
P1 ¼ Period 1 (changes between 1968 and 1990). P2 ¼ Period 2 (changes between 1990 and 2007).
reason for deforestation in the earlier period was agricultural expansion, whereas in the later period other factors were involved. In the Barikot zone, rangeland nearer to the settlements were brought under cultivation or converted to built up areas. As built up areas extended further and demand for agricultural products increase cultivated land was pushed into previously forested areas. Overall, agriculture expansion was more on marginal lands on steep slopes until biophysical constraints such as thin fertile topsoils and steep slopes restricting terrace development limited further expansion. The soil losses from these land uses resulted in less productive lands which were ultimately abandoned as crop production became uneconomical given existing technologies and market conditions causing large increases in rangeland. The driving forces for these changes could be population pressure and lack of forest policy implementation and enforcement as well as lack of resources. Both Malamjaba and Kalam are famous touristic valleys and a high increase in built up area was observed in these two zones along with other economic development which alternatively exerted extra pressure on scarce natural resources. Kalam region is a remote and densely forested area of Swat, with altitudes between 2500 m and 6500 m above sea level. In the Kalam region we observed a 39.8 km2 (30.5%) loss of forest, 16.7 km2 (202.6%) increase in agricultural areas and a very high (158.7%) increase in rangeland. These rangelands are mostly hilly bare stone soils with no water retaining capacity. Changes in land use are not only important for this zone itself but it highly affects the other downstream areas as well exemplified by the heavy flood of 1992 in Swat. The results of this study fit into the picture that emerges from similar studies, generally reporting high annual deforestation rates for many other temperate forests in developing countries. For example, Brink and Eva (2009) found that over 25 years agriculture has increase by 57% from just over 200 to nearly 340 million hectares in Africa. This increase has taken place at the expense of forest and natural non-forest vegetation, which has diminished by 16 and 5%, respectively. Gómez-Mendoza et al. (2006) studied land use changes in Sierra Norte of Oaxaca (SNO) Mexico, and found that between 1980 and 2000 forest decreased by 3% annually due to agriculture and livestock encroachment. Dewan and Yamaguchi
(2009) reported that urban areas of Dhaka increased by 3875 ha from 1975 to 2003 consuming agriculture and low wetlands around the city, making the city vulnerable to floods due to rapid urbanization. Wyman and Stein (2010) reported a 30% forest decrease in Belize between 1989 and 2004 showing that areas close to roads had been more likely to be deforested. López and Sierra (2010) reported agriculture expansion in the Pastaza River Basin in the Ecuadorian Amazon showing that agriculture expansion happened mainly on relatively poor soils on steep slopes due to agricultural land scarcity in the area. Schulz, Cayuela, Echeverria, Salas, and Rey Benayas (2010) quantified land use changes in central Chile between 1975 and 2008 and found a 1.1% increase in agricultural land and a 2.7% increase in urban areas consuming 1.7% of forests and 0.7% of shrub land, annually. Semwal et al. (2004) observed a 30% increase in agricultural land at the cost of 5% of forestland between 1963 and 1993 in the central Himalayas of India. They further found that 60% of agricultural expansion occurred in community forests compared to 35% in protected forests and 5% in reserved forests. Fox, Krummel, Yarnasarn, Ekasingh, and Podger (1995) analyzed human induced loss and fragmentation of tropical forests in three upland watersheds in northern Thailand between 1954 and 1992 and reported that during this 38 years forest cover declined, agriculture expanded while population and population density increased. A number of other studies from Thailand, Nepal and India show similar dynamics in land use and landscape patterns (Bajracharya, 1983; Boonkird et al., 1985; Ghosh, Sen, Rana, Rao, & Saxena, 1996). Similarly, for Turkey, Keles¸, Sivrikaya, Çakir, and Köse (2008) reported a loss of 0.42% forest per year between 1975 and 2000 in Trabzon, Turkey. Zheng, Wallin, and Hoa (1997) reported a 1.12% annual rate of deforestation outside of the Changbai Biosphere Reserve in China. In the Sikhoteealinsky Biosphere Reserve region of the Russian Far East, Cushman and Wallin (2000) showed a 18.3% reduction in conifer forest cover between 1972 and 1992. The trends are less clear-cut in developed countries. For example, in a recent study on prevailing myths about agricultural land abandonment and forest regrowth in the USA Ramankutty, Heller, and Rhemtulla (2010) showed that croplands were abandoned in the eastern portions of the continent accompanied by
Table 3 Percent inter changes in land cover types in Malamjaba region. Built-up
Agriculture Forests Rangelands Water body
Agriculture
Forests
Rangeland
Water body
P1
P2
P1
P2
P1
P2
P1
P2
P1
P2
4.98 0.76 1.14 1.34
6.20 0.04 0.69 0.63
e 10.49 26.89 39.80
e 1.09 3.87 5.08
0.31 e 13.41 1.00
1.43 e 0.41 0.00
4.71 49.18 e 41.47
13.52 17.2 e 0.63
3.04 0.34 1.08 e
0.04 0.00 0.04 e
P1 ¼ Period 1 (changes between 1968 and 1990). P2 ¼ Period 2 (changes between 1990 and 2007).
M. Qasim et al. / Applied Geography 31 (2011) 820e828
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Table 4 Percent inter changes in land cover types in Barikot region. Built-up
Agriculture Forests Rangelands Water body
Agriculture
Forests
Rangeland
Water body
P1
P2
P1
P2
P1
P2
P1
P2
P1
P2
3.71 0.51 1.20 1.37
4.67 0.70 1.35 0.44
e 12.70 26.00 52.17
e 18.96 25.10 8.15
3.67 e 5.35 0.45
2.52 e 4.06 0.00
22.24 46.12 e 25.23
13.22 29.00 e 11.67
2.40 1.25 1.43 e
0.25 0.00 0.19 e
P1 ¼ Period 1 (changes between 1968 and 1990). P2 ¼ Period 2 (changes between 1990 and 2007).
forest regrowth, and agricultural land expanded on forest land in the west. On a regional level, Staus, Strittholt, DellaSala, and Robinson (2002) showed that forested areas in the KlamatheSiskiyou eco-region in the USA decreased nearly by 4.7% with an annual rate of deforestation of about 0.57% and increasing forest fragmentation between 1972 and 1992. Similarly, Hall et al. (1991) reported annual conifer forest decrease of 1.8% in northern Minnesota, while Luque, Lathrop, and Bognar (1994) found an annual decline of pine oak forests of 2.2% in the Pine Barrens region of New Jersey. For western Oregon annual deforestation rates due to clear cutting between 1972 and 1995 ranged from 0.5 to 1.2% overall with nearly a 20% total reduction in forest cover (Cohen et al., 1995). A number of regional studies in developed countries show increases in forested areas (e.g., Al-Hassideh & Bill, 2008 for Rohstock in Germany and Serra, Pons, & Saurí, 2008 in Spain), whereas the Japanese examples show evidence of deforestation. For example, Seguchi, Brown, and Takeuchi (2007) studied land use change from traditional to modern eras in Saitama prefecture, Japan and reported that from 1880 to 1990 the area of paddy fields essentially remained unchanged but forest cover decreased from 39% to 20% whereas urban areas increased from 5% to 24%. This regional findings match somewhat national level estimates from the FAO (2005) estimating a 0.33% annual decrease of forest cover for the whole country between 1990 and 2005. These examples show some contradictory trends for developed countries and the importance for regional as well as national case studies. Conclusions There is conflicting evidence on the state of the forests in Pakistan. Official statistics tend to paint a more positive picture than international agencies and researchers. This study addressed this issue and has provided important insights into land use change for the district Swat over four decades. The annual deforestation rates observed were 1.86%, 1.28% and 0.80% in the scrub forest zone, agro-forest zone and pine forest zones of district Swat, respectively. There are only negligible accounts of afforestation from 1968 to 1990. Despite frequent claims of an increase forest in forest areas in Swat, we could show the valuable coniferous forest of the district has significantly decreased. Expansion of agriculture has mainly been achieved at the cost of deforestation leading to erosion land degradation as agriculture has expanded mostly on marginal land. This indicates that agricultural expansion on such marginal land is only temporary and that land abandonment seems to have been the longer term fate of these areas. The research suggests that continued deforestation on poor soils in monsoon affected areas will increase erosion and long-term land abandonment. Therefore local policy makers are required to design effective strategies that diminish such land use changes. In fact, if nothing is done to check the present high rate of deforestation, the remaining forests will follow a similar fate.
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Applied Geography journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/apgeog
Spatial and temporal dynamics of land use pattern in District Swat, Hindu Kush Himalayan region of Pakistan Muhammad Qasim a, *, Klaus Hubacek a, b, Mette Termansen a, c, Ahmad Khan d a
Sustainability Research Institute, School of Earth and Environment, University of Leeds, LS2 9JT, United Kingdom Department of Geography, 2181 LeFrak Hall, University of Maryland, College Park, MD 20742, United States c University of Aarhus, National Environment Research Institute, Department of Policy Analysis, Frederiksborgvej 399, 4000 Roskilde, Denmark d The Pakistan Wetlands Programme, House No. 3, Street No. 4, F-7/3, Islamabad, Pakistan b
a b s t r a c t Keywords: Spatial analysis Land use change Land degradation Remote sensing GIS Deforestation Swat Pakistan
District Swat is a part of the high altitude Hindu Kush Himalaya (HKH) region of Pakistan comprising a diverse set of biophysical, ecological and socio-economic characteristics. Analysis of land cover data of this region is particularly important because of disparate accounts on the state of forest resources of Pakistan in general and Swat in particular. Mainly official Pakistani sources frequently claim that Pakistan’s forests have been progressively increasing as a result of afforestation efforts and increasing environmental awareness. On the other hand, a number of studies and international statistics have reported significant deforestation in Pakistan. To resolve this uncertainty this paper documents the land use dynamics from three ecological zones of district Swat over four decades using aerial photographs and remote sensing data for the years 1968, 1990 and 2007. Analysis of land use and cover change in Swat, over this time period, shows drastic changes in the landscape. In Kalam; the forest zone of the district, forest area is decreased by 30.5%; with 11.4% of the deforestation caused by agricultural expansion. Simultaneously, a marked reduction in the agricultural area was observed with 17.3% of the agricultural area converted to rangeland. In Malamjaba, the agro-forest zone of the district, agricultural land expanded by 77.6% between 1968 and 1990 but then shrunk by 4.1% between 1990 and 2007. Forest cover in this zone decreased 49.7% over the last 40 years. In the Barikot region (agro-scrub forest zone), forest cover decreased from covering 32.7% of the total area of the zone in 1968 to 9.5% in 2007, whereas the built up areas increased by 161.4% over the four decades; and agricultural land expanded by 129.9% consuming 12.7% and 18.96% of forest area between 1968 and 1990, and between 1990 and 2007, respectively. Annual deforestation rates observed were 1.86% (scrub forest zone), 1.28% (agro-forest zone) and 0.80% (pine forest zone) in the respective areas of district Swat. Expansion of agriculture has mainly been achieved at the expense of forested areas, with only negligible accounts of afforestation from 1968 to 2007. We conclude that despite frequent claims of forest increase in Swat, the valuable coniferous forest has significantly decreased, frequently leading to land degradation. The current trend is therefore alarming and calls for increased policy action to increase protection of the remaining forest resources which otherwise might follow a similar fate. Ó 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Introduction Age-old local and regional land use practices such as clearing forested land to grow crops, building houses or road construction have accumulated to become a global issue (Acevedo et al., 2008; Ramankutty & Foley, 1999; Turner, Moss, & Skole, 1993). The global forest cover is reported to be 3952 million ha, which is about * Corresponding author. Tel.: þ44 1133431182; fax: þ44 1133435259. E-mail addresses: [email protected], [email protected] (M. Qasim). 0143-6228/$ e see front matter Ó 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. doi:10.1016/j.apgeog.2010.08.008
30% of the world’s land area, but between 2000 and 2005 gross deforestation occurred at a rate of 12.9 million hectares per year (FAO, 2006). This was mainly a result of converting forests to agricultural land, but also due to expansion of settlements, infrastructure, and intensive logging practices (FAO, 2006). Researchers have documented that the continuous and rapid increase in the rate of land use and cover change (LUCC) represents a major global environmental challenge (Acevedo et al., 2008; Baskent & Kadiogullari, 2007; Houghton, 1994; Lambin et al., 2001; Ojima, Galvin, &Turner, 1994; Walker, 2003). There are numerous studies on land cover and land use change in both developed and
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developing countries such as Bangladesh (Dewan & Yamaguchi, 2009), Nepal (Dongol, Hughey, & Bigsby, 2002), India (Bawa, Joseph, & Setty, 2007), China (Chen, Wang, Fu, & Qiu, 2001), Thailand (Crews-Meyer, 2004), Kenya (Serneels & Lambin, 2001), Turkey (Baskent & Kadiogullari, 2007), Egypt (Shalaby & Tateishi, 2007), Canada (Pan, Domon, de Blois, & Bouchard, 1999) reflecting the importance of land as a finite resource and fundamental factor of production and contributor to livelihoods. These vital contributions are threatened by the extent of deforestation. Furthermore, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) described deforestation as one of the most significant contributors to greenhouse gas emissions, contributing close to 20 percent of the overall greenhouse gases entering the atmosphere (Fischlin, 2008, 3 pp.; for an example at the local level see GómezMendoza, Vega-Peña, Isabel Ramírez, Palacio-Prieto, & Galicia, 2006). Due to continuous land degradation and associated environmental issues, many developed countries have adopted effective strategies regarding land use change and forest protection. As a result significant increase in the forest cover in many developed countries was observed over the last couple of years. For example,
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in Spain forest areas increased by 33% and in China by 25.6% between 1990 and 2005 (FAO, 2005). The picture is less positive in developing countries although outliers such as India reported a remarkable increase (of 3,762,000 ha) in its forests over the same period, whereas for other developing countries such as Brazil, Mexico and Nepal huge deforestation was observed (e.g., 25.5% of the forests disappeared in Nepal between 1990 and 2005). Pakistan is no exception, but perhaps surprisingly, there are two very different accounts regarding the trends in the forest resources of Pakistan. It is often argued that forest resources of the country have been increasing, as a result of afforestation, agro-forestry and reduction in illegal logging. This is supported by government statistics, which have shown a marked increase in the forest cover area, e.g., a 21.13% increase from 1947 to 1994 in the forest cover (UNEP & ICIMOD, 1998, pp. 29e31). Similarly, for the district Swat, an 8.79% increase in forest cover has been reported from 1996 to 2000 (GoNWFP, 2008). In contrast to these statistics, other studies have reported significant deforestation due to large scale exploitation of forest resources, partly illegal agricultural expansion and fuel wood collection in deprived rural areas (Ali, Shabaz, & Suleri, 2006; Shabaz & Ali, 2006). This evidence for a high rate of
Fig. 1. District Swat location in HKH region.
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Fig. 2. Land use and land cover maps of Kalam region (1968e2007).
deforestation is also supported by FAO estimates (2005) reporting a 24.73% decrease in the total forest area of Pakistan between 1990 and 2005. Between 1981 and 1990 a 0.6% per year decrease was reported by Environment Assessment Programme for Asia and the Pacific (UNEP & ICIMOD, 1998, pp. 29e31). Similarly, Brown and Durst (2003) reported a national deforestation rate of 1.5% per year for the 1990s. To date the discrepancies in deforestation in Pakistan have not yet been quantitatively resolved despite the availability of technologies such as remote sensing (RS) and Geographic Information Systems (GIS). Without quantifying the rate and amount of land cover change over time, it is difficult to understand the historic and ongoing land use dynamics and forest conversions. It is therefore important to document temporal and spatial aspects of land use changes to help assess current trends and contributing processes. Particularly where contradicting evidence exists it is important to resolve these in order to inform discussions on future land use and environmental policies. In this study we focus on district Swat (Fig. 1), as the region has the highest cover of temperate coniferous forest in the region, of high importance for local communities and due to the growing concerns that the forests in the area are under severe threat (Ali et al., 2006; FAO, 2005). Furthermore, processes occurring in the Swat district can be seen to represent socio-economic and environmental issues relevant on a wider geographical scale (Khan, 2004). Very few land use change studies have been carried out in Pakistan in general e and for Swat in particular; and none of these studies have focused on a regional scale analysis of land use change
over a long time period. This study fills this gap through a comprehensive analysis of land use change using old aerial photographs, satellite images and GIS techniques. The aim of this study is to explore the dynamics of land use change that has occurred in the region. By tracing the change in use of each parcel of land we aim to reveal the underlying drivers for land use change. This will generate a more accurate and nuanced representation of the development that is not apparent in aggregate (and frequently contradictory) statistics of land use types in the region. For this purpose we created land use maps for 1968, 1990 and 2007 based on old aerial photographs and satellite images and then detected and quantified the changes over a period of 4 decades (1968e2007). With this analysis we quantify the rate and patterns of change and compare them with the governmental statistics to provide a current assessment of the state of forest resources in the region and the trends in deforestation rates. Finally, we discuss the implications this has for the assessment of the current threat to the forest resources in the area. Methods An overview of the study area This study was carried out in district Swat, a mountainous part of the North West Frontier Province (NWFP) that consists of many valleys with scrub and/or coniferous forests on the upper slopes and alpine pastures on the ridges. The area of district Swat is 5037 km2 and total population is 1.25 million (GoP, 1999). The average population density is 248/km2. The district is located
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Fig. 3. Land use and land cover maps of Malamjaba region (1968e2007).
between 34 300 0000 to 35 500 0000 N and 72 050 0000 to 72 500 0000 E. with altitudinal variation cover the ranges between 500 and 6500 m above sea level. For the purpose of this study Swat can be divided into three regions based on dominant land cover type (see Fig. 1). Kalam region (the forest zone) is situated in northern Swat. The region is dominated by coniferous forests and alpine pastures. The elevation goes as high as 6500 m above sea level. The area has a lower population density and a less developed infrastructure compared to the mid and lower regions. Malamjaba region (the agro-forest zone) is part of the middle areas of district Swat where the main vegetation cover is agriculture and pine forest. Agriculture is more dominant than forest and the area has a few big settlements but is less densely populated than southern region. The elevation ranges between 1000 and 2000 m above sea level. Barikot region (the scrub forest zone) comprises the southern part of the district. The area is densely populated and has a more developed infrastructure. The major vegetation cover is agricultural crops and scrub forest. Study area selection The area was selected on the basis of the following characteristics. Firstly, the region has the highest cover of temperate coniferous forest in the country and province, which as mentioned earlier is under heavy deforestation pressure. Secondly, despite having valuable commercial forest resources Swat is thought to be one of the most disadvantaged areas. Thirdly, Swat has three
different topographic/ecological zones, and thus provides grounds for comparison between the three different ecological zones, which in turn increase the scope of the study as the results would be a representative for similar eco-zones within the Hindu Kush Himalayan region. Time periods selection The data starts with the baseline of October 1968 which forms natural starting point given that in 1969 the then Swat State (princely state) was merged with Pakistan. The next data point selected was 1990, with approximately 2 decades gap which is considered as transition period during which a few important institutional changes took place and several development projects were carried out in the area such as the Rural Development Project, the Project for Horticulture Promotion and the Kalam Integrated Development Project. These projects mostly focussed on community development, agriculture and road infrastructure, which are often considered as important drivers for land use change. The last data point is 2007, which is the latest available data. Thus the data covers a period of about four decades. The time period between 1968 and 1990 is referred to as period 1 and the period between 1990 and 2007 as period 2. Developing land use maps Remote sensing techniques using aerial photographs and satellite images are one of the most effective methods for documenting the rate and pattern of land use change and can provide
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Fig. 4. Land use and land cover maps of Barikot region (1968e2007).
information to help resolve controversies about future management directions (Cohen, Spies, & Fiorella, 1995). Aerial photographs and satellite images are useful for assessments of regions natural resource stocks at a particular time as well as quantitative evaluation of land use and cover change over a specified time period. A combined use of RS and GIS technologies therefore can be invaluable to address a wide variety of resources management problems including land use and cover changes (e.g., Gautam, Webb, Shivakoti, & Zoebisch, 2003, Kadiogullari & Baskent, 2008; Skole & Tucker, 1993; Tekle & Jedlund, 2000). ArcGIS (ArcMap) was used for developing digital land use and cover maps for 5 land cover types: forestland, agricultural land, rangeland, built up areas, and area covered by snow at the time of the data recording and therefore included as an additional land cover type for Kalam region. The aerial photographs were scanned and mosaic files were created for each area, these were then georectified using ArcMap. Finally, land use and land cover maps were developed using the geo-rectified old aerial photographs and the satellite images via the polygon formation technique in ArcMap for each of the three zones and time periods. All polygon maps were converted to raster maps, then using ArcGIS the maps from the different points in time i.e., 1968, 1990 and 2007 were overlaid, and the areas converted from one land cover type to another were computed using raster calculator. The total area of district Swat is about 5037 km2. The ideal situation would have been to map and analyze the whole area. Unfortunately the aerial photographs, which have been used as baseline, were not available for the whole Swat. In order to track land use change for a long period of time it was necessary to select
areas within the three vegetation zones. Thus approximately 250 km2 areas from each zone have been mapped. The sampling is taking into account that district Swat is a narrow elongated valley and a river (river Swat) flowing from north to south divides the valley into roughly two equal parts. Thus a cross section selected from each vegetation zone comprising areas on both sides of the river provides good samples to represent the whole district. Results Overall temporal land cover statistics of the three zones The land use change maps (Figs. 2e4) show two strong trends: increasing fragmentation from 1968 to 2007 and change in land cover types especially decrease in forest area (70.9% in Barikot region) and increase in agriculture (202.6% Kalam region) and built up area (216.1% in Malamjaba) see Table 1. The temporal analysis of land use and cover maps between 1968 and 2007 (Figs. 2e4) reveals the dynamics of the land use transformation, by identifying the amount of land changing from one land cover type to any other. Data regarding the temporal transitions among all different cover types are given in Tables 2e4. Land use and cover changes in Kalam region Forest area in Kalam region decreased 30.5% (Table 1) in forty years, of which 6.61 and 4.81% (Table 2) decrease was due to agriculture expansion in period 1 and 2, respectively. A significant agricultural area contraction was observed as well, as 12.39% of
Barikot zone c
161.4 129.9 70.9 0.9 54.5 e
Malamjaba zone b
216.1 70.3 49.7 4.6 6.7 e 106.3 202.6 30.5 158.7 40.0 80.8 66.1 4.1 14.6 5.6 10.8 e 4.9 39.2 9.5 44.7 1.7 e
25.0 156.4 14.7 100.7 26.6 59.2
90.3 77.6 41.2 0.9 4.7 e 2.9 29.6 16.2 49.4 1.9 e 1.9 17.5 32.6 44.3 3.7 e
56.8 73.3 50.3 10.5 48.9 e
65.0 18.0 18.4 28.8 18.2 52.9
66.7 32.7 41.5 9.4 11.1 e
Kalam zone a Malamjaba zone b
%Change 1990e2007
Kalam zone a Barikot zone c Malamjaba zone b
%Change 1968e1990
Kalam zone a 1990 % cover 1968 % cover
agriculture areas were converted to rangeland in period 1 and 4.85% in period 2. This is a typical change frequently observed in Hindu Kush Himalayan region when the top productive soil is eroded during agricultural practices on marginal land and steep slopes. During the whole study period we could also observe a large increase in the area classified as rangeland (158.7%) mainly due to a smaller area covered in snow in the later recordings (see Fig. 2).
In Malamjaba region, which is part of the agro-forestry zone, drastic changes were observed in agriculture, forest and built up areas. Agricultural land expanded by 77.6% in period one but shrunk by 4.1% in the later two decades (Table 1, and Fig. 3). The decrease in agricultural area in period 2 was due to a 6.2% conversion to built up areas and another 13.52% of its area been converted to rangeland (Table 3). Forest areas decreased by 49.7% (Table 1) over the time period; 11.52% of the forest clearance was due to conversion to agricultural land and most of the remainder was converted to rangeland (Table 3). At the same time we observed forest area gains of 13.41% from land previously classified as rangeland in period 1 and 0.41% converted from agricultural land in period 2 (Table 3). Land use changes in Barikot region The data regarding land cover types of Barikot region (Table 1 and Fig. 4) show that over 40 years the built up areas grew by 161.4%, about a third of which took place since 1990. Forest cover decreased from 78.1 km2 (32.7% of the total area of the zone) in 1968e22.7 km2 in 2007 indicating a total loss of 70.9% of forest areas in that zone. Total agricultural expansion was 129.9%, partly at the expense of previously forested land as 12.7% and 18.96% of forest area in period one and two respectively, were converted to agricultural use. The data in Table 4 show that 22.2% and 13.22% of agricultural land was not cultivable anymore and changed to rangeland in the two periods respectively and another 3.71% and 4.67% of agriculture was converted into built up area. At the same time agriculture expanded on 26.0% of rangeland in period one and 25.1% in period two. Afforestation took place with 6.19% on agricultural land and with 9.41% on rangeland over the entire time period.
0.7 3.0 43.1 20.5 0.6 32.1
0.8 7.7 36.7 41.2 0.4 13.2
1.3 9.0 30.0 53.2 0.4 6.1
1.4 16.9 33.8 46.6 1.3 e
2.6 30.0 19.9 46.2 1.3 e
4.3 28.8 17.0 48.7 1.2 e
Discussion
Built up Agriculture Forest Rangeland Water area Snow area
1990 % cover
2007 % cover
1990 % cover 1968 % cover 1968 % cover
2007 % cover
2007 % cover
Barikot region 239 km2 Malamjaba region 235 km2 Kalam region 261 km2
Land Cover Type
Table 1 Land use changes across the zones and across the time periods in district Swat.
825
Land use and cover changes in Malamjaba region
Barikot zone c
Total %change
M. Qasim et al. / Applied Geography 31 (2011) 820e828
The land use and land cover maps of district Swat between 1968 and 2007 show a drastic transformation in the landscape. Spatial and temporal databases used for assessing the overall trends of change in landscape structure showed a significant decrease in forests and increase in agriculture and built up areas. The lowest rate of deforestation observed is a 30.5% reduction in forest cover in Kalam region, although the rate of deforestation has been accelerating. The highest rate of deforestation observed was with 70.9% in the Barikot region probably driven by the fact that the region is densely populated with a number of urban centres and an extensive road network. We also observe a stark conversion from area under water to agricultural land by building retaining walls against the river water. Similarly, previously used rangelands (small areas surrounded by river water) were brought under agricultural use. Such retaining walls were specifically found in Barikot region, which had more investments to create agricultural land and improvements towards more mechanized agriculture. The land cover changes were different quite different in 1968e1990 from 1990 to 2007. Agricultural area expanded mainly in the first study period, with the highest change observed in Kalam region, the forest zone of the district. In all three zones the main
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M. Qasim et al. / Applied Geography 31 (2011) 820e828
Table 2 Percent inter changes in land cover types in Kalam region. Built-up
Agriculture Forests Rangelands Water Snow
Agriculture
Forests
Rangeland
Water
Snow
P1
P2
P1
P2
P1
P2
P1
P2
P1
P2
P1
P2
3.03 0.14 0.37 0.65 0.00
5.54 0.17 0.06 0.96 0.00
e 6.61 12.34 16.99 0.00
e 4.81 0.90 5.76 0.00
15.99 e 27.72 3.26 5.44
0.09 e 0.34 1.92 0.08
12.39 23.86 e 3.26 53.54
4.85 13.94 e 4.84 59.30
0.00 0.00 0.00 e 0.00
0.00 0.00 0.00 e 0.00
0.00 0.01 1.24 0.00 e
0.00 0.04 1.92 0.00 e
P1 ¼ Period 1 (changes between 1968 and 1990). P2 ¼ Period 2 (changes between 1990 and 2007).
reason for deforestation in the earlier period was agricultural expansion, whereas in the later period other factors were involved. In the Barikot zone, rangeland nearer to the settlements were brought under cultivation or converted to built up areas. As built up areas extended further and demand for agricultural products increase cultivated land was pushed into previously forested areas. Overall, agriculture expansion was more on marginal lands on steep slopes until biophysical constraints such as thin fertile topsoils and steep slopes restricting terrace development limited further expansion. The soil losses from these land uses resulted in less productive lands which were ultimately abandoned as crop production became uneconomical given existing technologies and market conditions causing large increases in rangeland. The driving forces for these changes could be population pressure and lack of forest policy implementation and enforcement as well as lack of resources. Both Malamjaba and Kalam are famous touristic valleys and a high increase in built up area was observed in these two zones along with other economic development which alternatively exerted extra pressure on scarce natural resources. Kalam region is a remote and densely forested area of Swat, with altitudes between 2500 m and 6500 m above sea level. In the Kalam region we observed a 39.8 km2 (30.5%) loss of forest, 16.7 km2 (202.6%) increase in agricultural areas and a very high (158.7%) increase in rangeland. These rangelands are mostly hilly bare stone soils with no water retaining capacity. Changes in land use are not only important for this zone itself but it highly affects the other downstream areas as well exemplified by the heavy flood of 1992 in Swat. The results of this study fit into the picture that emerges from similar studies, generally reporting high annual deforestation rates for many other temperate forests in developing countries. For example, Brink and Eva (2009) found that over 25 years agriculture has increase by 57% from just over 200 to nearly 340 million hectares in Africa. This increase has taken place at the expense of forest and natural non-forest vegetation, which has diminished by 16 and 5%, respectively. Gómez-Mendoza et al. (2006) studied land use changes in Sierra Norte of Oaxaca (SNO) Mexico, and found that between 1980 and 2000 forest decreased by 3% annually due to agriculture and livestock encroachment. Dewan and Yamaguchi
(2009) reported that urban areas of Dhaka increased by 3875 ha from 1975 to 2003 consuming agriculture and low wetlands around the city, making the city vulnerable to floods due to rapid urbanization. Wyman and Stein (2010) reported a 30% forest decrease in Belize between 1989 and 2004 showing that areas close to roads had been more likely to be deforested. López and Sierra (2010) reported agriculture expansion in the Pastaza River Basin in the Ecuadorian Amazon showing that agriculture expansion happened mainly on relatively poor soils on steep slopes due to agricultural land scarcity in the area. Schulz, Cayuela, Echeverria, Salas, and Rey Benayas (2010) quantified land use changes in central Chile between 1975 and 2008 and found a 1.1% increase in agricultural land and a 2.7% increase in urban areas consuming 1.7% of forests and 0.7% of shrub land, annually. Semwal et al. (2004) observed a 30% increase in agricultural land at the cost of 5% of forestland between 1963 and 1993 in the central Himalayas of India. They further found that 60% of agricultural expansion occurred in community forests compared to 35% in protected forests and 5% in reserved forests. Fox, Krummel, Yarnasarn, Ekasingh, and Podger (1995) analyzed human induced loss and fragmentation of tropical forests in three upland watersheds in northern Thailand between 1954 and 1992 and reported that during this 38 years forest cover declined, agriculture expanded while population and population density increased. A number of other studies from Thailand, Nepal and India show similar dynamics in land use and landscape patterns (Bajracharya, 1983; Boonkird et al., 1985; Ghosh, Sen, Rana, Rao, & Saxena, 1996). Similarly, for Turkey, Keles¸, Sivrikaya, Çakir, and Köse (2008) reported a loss of 0.42% forest per year between 1975 and 2000 in Trabzon, Turkey. Zheng, Wallin, and Hoa (1997) reported a 1.12% annual rate of deforestation outside of the Changbai Biosphere Reserve in China. In the Sikhoteealinsky Biosphere Reserve region of the Russian Far East, Cushman and Wallin (2000) showed a 18.3% reduction in conifer forest cover between 1972 and 1992. The trends are less clear-cut in developed countries. For example, in a recent study on prevailing myths about agricultural land abandonment and forest regrowth in the USA Ramankutty, Heller, and Rhemtulla (2010) showed that croplands were abandoned in the eastern portions of the continent accompanied by
Table 3 Percent inter changes in land cover types in Malamjaba region. Built-up
Agriculture Forests Rangelands Water body
Agriculture
Forests
Rangeland
Water body
P1
P2
P1
P2
P1
P2
P1
P2
P1
P2
4.98 0.76 1.14 1.34
6.20 0.04 0.69 0.63
e 10.49 26.89 39.80
e 1.09 3.87 5.08
0.31 e 13.41 1.00
1.43 e 0.41 0.00
4.71 49.18 e 41.47
13.52 17.2 e 0.63
3.04 0.34 1.08 e
0.04 0.00 0.04 e
P1 ¼ Period 1 (changes between 1968 and 1990). P2 ¼ Period 2 (changes between 1990 and 2007).
M. Qasim et al. / Applied Geography 31 (2011) 820e828
827
Table 4 Percent inter changes in land cover types in Barikot region. Built-up
Agriculture Forests Rangelands Water body
Agriculture
Forests
Rangeland
Water body
P1
P2
P1
P2
P1
P2
P1
P2
P1
P2
3.71 0.51 1.20 1.37
4.67 0.70 1.35 0.44
e 12.70 26.00 52.17
e 18.96 25.10 8.15
3.67 e 5.35 0.45
2.52 e 4.06 0.00
22.24 46.12 e 25.23
13.22 29.00 e 11.67
2.40 1.25 1.43 e
0.25 0.00 0.19 e
P1 ¼ Period 1 (changes between 1968 and 1990). P2 ¼ Period 2 (changes between 1990 and 2007).
forest regrowth, and agricultural land expanded on forest land in the west. On a regional level, Staus, Strittholt, DellaSala, and Robinson (2002) showed that forested areas in the KlamatheSiskiyou eco-region in the USA decreased nearly by 4.7% with an annual rate of deforestation of about 0.57% and increasing forest fragmentation between 1972 and 1992. Similarly, Hall et al. (1991) reported annual conifer forest decrease of 1.8% in northern Minnesota, while Luque, Lathrop, and Bognar (1994) found an annual decline of pine oak forests of 2.2% in the Pine Barrens region of New Jersey. For western Oregon annual deforestation rates due to clear cutting between 1972 and 1995 ranged from 0.5 to 1.2% overall with nearly a 20% total reduction in forest cover (Cohen et al., 1995). A number of regional studies in developed countries show increases in forested areas (e.g., Al-Hassideh & Bill, 2008 for Rohstock in Germany and Serra, Pons, & Saurí, 2008 in Spain), whereas the Japanese examples show evidence of deforestation. For example, Seguchi, Brown, and Takeuchi (2007) studied land use change from traditional to modern eras in Saitama prefecture, Japan and reported that from 1880 to 1990 the area of paddy fields essentially remained unchanged but forest cover decreased from 39% to 20% whereas urban areas increased from 5% to 24%. This regional findings match somewhat national level estimates from the FAO (2005) estimating a 0.33% annual decrease of forest cover for the whole country between 1990 and 2005. These examples show some contradictory trends for developed countries and the importance for regional as well as national case studies. Conclusions There is conflicting evidence on the state of the forests in Pakistan. Official statistics tend to paint a more positive picture than international agencies and researchers. This study addressed this issue and has provided important insights into land use change for the district Swat over four decades. The annual deforestation rates observed were 1.86%, 1.28% and 0.80% in the scrub forest zone, agro-forest zone and pine forest zones of district Swat, respectively. There are only negligible accounts of afforestation from 1968 to 1990. Despite frequent claims of an increase forest in forest areas in Swat, we could show the valuable coniferous forest of the district has significantly decreased. Expansion of agriculture has mainly been achieved at the cost of deforestation leading to erosion land degradation as agriculture has expanded mostly on marginal land. This indicates that agricultural expansion on such marginal land is only temporary and that land abandonment seems to have been the longer term fate of these areas. The research suggests that continued deforestation on poor soils in monsoon affected areas will increase erosion and long-term land abandonment. Therefore local policy makers are required to design effective strategies that diminish such land use changes. In fact, if nothing is done to check the present high rate of deforestation, the remaining forests will follow a similar fate.
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