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Spatial changes in livestock production in Northern Ireland: 1974–1986
Journal of Rural Studies, Vol. 7, No. 3, pp. 277-283, 1991
0743-0167/91 $3.00 + 0.00 Pergamon Press pie
Printed in Great Britain
Spatial Changes in Livestock Production in Northern Ireland: 1974-1986 C.J.W. Edwards Department of Environmental Studies, University of Ulster, Northern Ireland
Abstract - - This paper examines the spatial changes that occurred in patterns of
livestock production in Northern Ireland during the period since the United Kingdom's entry into the EC. In a province where agriculture is dominated by livestock production, total livestock numbers and stock densities declined during the period, while the popularity of individual types of livestock varied, following policy changes both nationally and under the CAP. The paper illustrates and briefly discusses the reasons for such changes, but pays particular attention to the geographical effect they have had in altering spatial patterns of livestock production at a regional scale within Northern Ireland.
production inevitably change through time as a cumulative result of necessary adjustments made at an individual farm level, in response to changing circumstances.
Introduction
Production and sale of livestock and livestock products forms the principal element in the rural economy of Northern Ireland (Department of Agriculture for Northern Ireland ( D A N I ) , 1978, p. 14; Symons, 1970; Edwards, 1977; Furness, 1982; Ulster Yearbooks, 1974-1984). It has been demonstrated that regional variations occur across the province in the scale and nature of various types of livestock production in response to varied physical, social, economic and political factors, which in turn lead to the development of distinctive spatial patterns of production (Edwards, 1977). However, such patterns must never be regarded as static phenomena. Studies both in Ireland (Edwards, 1976, 1987: Gillmor, 1987) and elsewhere (Bowler, 1986; Coppock, 1964, 1976; Edwards, 1980; Winsberg, 1980) illustrate that spatial patterns of agricultural
The aim of this study, therefore, is to examine and briefly account for the scale and nature of changes that have occurred in livestock production in Northern Ireland, and more particularly, to illustrate the effect such adjustments have had upon spatial patterns of production in the province. The period chosen for study lies between 1974, when such patterns were documented (Edwards, 1977) and 1986, a period which has been marked both by considerable structural changes within the industry, particularly with the continued intensification of the pig and poultry sectors (Table 1) and by changing political and economic circumstances attendant upon the entry of the United Kingdom into the EC.
Table 1. Structural changes in livestock enterprises: 1974-1986 Percentage of total stock farms with above-average size units
Average size of enterprise
Dairy cows Beef cows Sheep Pigs Poultry (laying flocks under 5(1 hens)
Percentage of total farms with above-average size enterprises
1974
1986
1974
1986
1974
t986
19 13 105 65 1988
39 12 176 153 5925
68.6 69.5 74.5 76.3 83.5
68.6 72.1 72.9 83.1 89.0
32.9 30.9 31.9 26.9 5.4
38.3 34.2 32.6 20.2 3.9
Source: Dept. of Agriculture for Northern Ireland, Economics and Statistics Division.
277
278
C.J.W. Edwards
Data sources and methodology
ditions. Though somewhat dated, these correspond closely to factors currently in use by the Department of Agriculture for Northern Ireland [Kirke, 1988 (and pers. comm.)]. In addition, they have been widely used in studies of agricultural distributions throughout Ireland (Gillmor, 1970; Edwards, 1977; Walsh, 1989), and it was therefore thought appropriate to continue to use them in order to allow direct comparison with previously published material. Stock densities in each district were calculated on the basis of total livestock units per 'adjusted' hectare, using a 6:1 ratio between rough grazing and improved crops and grassland as recommended by Gillmor (1970), to take account of the lower grazing value of physically marginal land.
Restrictions on access to individual farm production returns collected by the Department of Agriculture for Northern Ireland because of necessary confidentiality, and the absence of disaggregated data at a small area scale, limit spatial analysis to an inevitably generalized rural district level. At this scale detailed data are available on numbers of different types of livestock within each district on an annual basis (DANI, pers. comm., 1974/1986). Accordingly, analysis is based on changes in livestock numbers within the 3l rural districts of Northern Ireland between 1974 and 1986. Subdivisions within the published database enable cattle numbers to be classified into three main production categories for the purpose of this study: dairy cattle (including both production animals and young stock being bred as replacements for the dairy herd), beef breeding cows and replacements, and those cattle being reared and fattened specifically for beef production. Though it is also possible to subdivide sheep and pig numbers, it was not felt appropriate to do so at the scale of this study. In the case of poultry, comparable data at both dates are only available for the laying flock at the rural district level, and an analysis of the spatial distribution of the increasingly important broiler sector at the district level is therefore unfortunately impossible.
Finally, livestock combinations were computed for each rural district, using the least-squares method as devised by Weaver (1954) and subsequently modified by Thomas (1963). Changes in total livestock Preliminary calculations of total livestock units for the province as a whole on the basis of such conversions record a total of 1,428,837 SUs for 1986, which represents an overall fall in stock numbers of some 10.5% since 1974. Such a generalized figure, however, inevitably masks more interesting fluctuations among individual livestock categories, and changes in the inter-relationships between them. Changes in total SUs in each category under discussion are illustrated in Fig. 1, together with their individual proportional share of total livestock units at both dates, and the percentage change in numbers in each category over the period.
In order to make meaningful comparisons between different types of livestock, simple numerical totals were transformed into livestock unit equivalents (SUs), using conversion factors based upon cow equivalents calculated by Attwood and Heavy (1964) and deemed to be suitable for Irish con-
% Share % Change of Total SUs in Total SUs
Livestock Type
1974 1986
500 ~
~
1
~
~
1
~
~
1
~
31.3
+ 4.4
Beet rearing/ Fattening
÷ 21.8
Dairying
+ 76.9
Sheep
- 41.1
Beet Breeding
400 0
c
300
200
100
.
9.4 0
r
1974
r
1978
1982
5.6
.29.0
- 47.3
i
1986
Year
Figure 1. Northern Ireland: changes in livestock units 1974-1986.
pi
s
Poultry
Spatial Changes in Livestock Production Beef rearing and fattening remained the numerically most important sector of the livestock industry, demonstrating the smallest rates of change of all sectors over the period. Though overall SUs in this sector increased by 4.4%, its proportional share of total SUs declined somewhat from 32.8% in 1974 to 31.3% in 1986. The most noticeable feature of this sector, however, is its volatility. Comparison of the peaks and troughs of the line graph for beef fattening in Fig. 1 with the rather smoother trends displayed by other sectors aptly illustrates this feature. This phenomenon is in no small part due to the fact that beef fattening is a sector of the livestock industry which has relatively lower fixed capital costs, which enables farmers to move rapidly into, and out of, beef fattening in response to price fluctuations in the market. Beef fattening numbers, for example, were rising rapidly at the start of the period in response to high expectations of improved prices in a wider EC market. By 1974 the beef herd had increased by 85,000 (over 30%) in three years. A glut of beef, low returns and a consequent loss of confidence in 1975 resulted in a marked drop in numbers in 1976, which had the effect of improving prices, such that numbers again increased from 1977. In addition to its responsiveness to market trends, however, beef fattening is also heavily dependent for its raw material source, young cattle, on the changing attitudes and fortunes of the beef breeding and dairy sectors. The fall-off in numbers in the early 1980s, such that store cattle were being imported from the Republic of Ireland in 1980 to fulfil the demand for beef fattening (Ulster Yearbook, 1981, p. 163), must in part at least be attributable to the sharp continuing decline in breeding cow numbers, for reasons to be discussed, which was only later in the period offset by the availability of increased numbers of cross-bred stock from an expanding dairy sector. From a high point in 1974 based on increased expectations at EC entry, beef breeding cow numbers declined markedly over the period, as a result of low returns from the beef sector in general. However. the fall in numbers was also affected by the increasing use of beef bulls, particularly continental breeds, as crossing sires within an expanding dairy industry, whose progeny played an increasingly important part in supplying the beef fattening sector, at the expense of the specialist beef breeder. Decline in numbers slowed temporarily in 1976, following the replacement of the old Hill Cow Subsidy by the more favourable subsidy levels of the EC Hill Livestock (Compensatory Allowance) Scheme in the Less Favoured Areas. The sharp decline was renewed, however, as lowland beef breeding herds in particular were further reduced
279
following the removal of the Beef Cattle (Breeding Herds) Scheme in 1977. The decline was only slowed in 1980, following the introduction of the EC Suckler Cow Premium Scheme, from which time numbers have remained relatively stable. Dairy numbers, in contrast, increased steadily over much of the earlier part of the period under review, rising to a peak of more than 350,000 SUs in 1984. This rise reflects the considerable incentive offered to farmers from a regular income from milk, through the operation of the Milk Marketing Board, which offset occasional reductions in profit margins and the high fixed capital costs of this production system. Increased use of high-yielding Friesian cows (Edwards, 1977) together with the additional income to be derived from cross-bred bullocks and surplus heifers of good beefing quality also increased the commercial attractiveness of dairying. The steady upward trend in what had become the second most important element of the livestock industry in terms of SUs (Fig. l) was reversed in 1984 following the introduction of the EC dairy quota system. Although the immediate impact on dairy farming was softened by the 'import' of additional quota from mainland Britain, a reduction of some 3.6% in the number of dairy SUs took place between 1984 and 1986, as farmers sought to adjust to the quotas and to the resultant loss of earnings from milk. Probably the most dramatic change during the study period however, and certainly one which is most noticeable in the landscape, particularly in the lowlands, is the marked rise in the sheep population of the province (Edwards, 1987). In 1974 sheep accounted for only 8.9% of all stock units, following a long period of decline through the 1960s. Indeed decline continued until, in 1976, numbers began to recover slowly following a 21% rise in producer prices, and the improved EC Hill Livestock (Compensatory Allowance) subsidy levels. Numbers continued to rise slowly as prices improved: for example, by 1977 prices had increased by 50% on 1975 levels (Ulster Yearbook, 1978/1979). The most dramatic increases, however, followed the introduction of the Sheep Annual Premium Scheme in 1980 as part of the EC Sheep Regime. Under this scheme, premiums were payable on breeding ewes not only in hill areas but also in the lowlands, which led to a marked improvement in the relative profitability of the lowland flock. The sheep sector was further stimulated (McKee, 1986; McGaughey, 1987) by a steady rise in rates of premium (Irwin, 1986), coupled with an expansion of markets when N. Ireland gained open access to European markets following an EC decision in 1982 to establish the
280
C.J.W. Edwards
province as a separate region from the rest of the U.K. for marketing purposes (Irwin, 1986; Edwards, 1987), which allowed sheep farmers to benefit from direct access to an EC which was only 78% selfsufficient in sheepmeat. The net result of these changing circumstances was that total stock units in sheep rose by 76.9% by 1986. [Recently acquired statistics (DANI, pers. comm., 1988) suggest a further rise by 1988 to 114.3% of the 1974 level.] As well as increasing significantly in their traditional hill regions, sheep now play an increasingly important role on many erstwhile lowland beef farms and indeed on many have assumed the dominant role. Increasing numbers are also now found on dairy farms, either as regular breeding flocks grazing land made available following dairy quota cut-backs, or in fattening flocks, traditionally brought in over winter to clean off surplus grass growth. As profits from dairying have declined, sheep have for many farmers provided a relatively low cost method of bridging an increasing income 'gap'. The small, but none the less economically important intensive livestock sectors of pigs and poultry both exhibited a steady decline in numbers over the period. Profitability in both these sectors is heavily dependent on the cost of feedstuffs, much of which has to be imported into Northern Ireland. Falling profitability due to rises in cereal and protein prices as a result of world shortages in the early 1970s was the initial cause of a sharp decline in the pig herd and to a lesser extent in the poultry flock. However, Stainer (1985) suggests that entry to the EC, coupled with a fall in consumption of eggs, bacon and ham in the traditional GB market has prevented recovery in these sectors. Northern Ireland producers have been cut off from access to cheaper grains from the world market and forced to buy cereals at prices which have been maintained at a high level under the CAP. For example, feed costs rose by some 30% in one year in 1976 (Ulster Yearbook, 1977, p. 150). Pigs and poultry on the other hand are not well supported under the CAP because of self-sufficiency in these products. In addition, as Stainer states (1985, pp. 57-58) Northern Ireland producers face the problem of having to import the bulk of their feed requirements at a price considerably above that paid in GB and then have to pay transport costs to export the major part of their produce to the GB market. These problems were exacerbated in the case of pigs, by the abandonment of the Fatstock Guarantee Scheme for pigs in 1975. Pig numbers, it is true, declined less rapidly than poultry, and have stabilized since 1981 (Rea, 1989). The fall-off in poultry numbers on the other hand, while being more rapid, has been partly offset by increased production per bird from highyielding hybrid hens. Productivity per bird increased from 169 eggs per bird in 1959 to 235 per bird in 1976
(Ulster Yearbook, 1978, p. 147). Additionally, many egg producers converted to broiler production so that the decline in the laying flock was more than offset by increases in the table flock. Unfortunately, because of a lack of comparative data, this new and important sector cannot be discussed in detail.
Spatial changes in stock density Changes in the number of stock in each category have resulted in changes in the established patterns of the intensity of livestock production across the province, illustrated by changes in livestock densities. Comparison between 1974 and 1986 (Fig. 2) reveals a general but clearly visible fall in stock densities (SU/adjusted ha) in many areas. The movement is not, however, all in one direction, stock densities having increased in rural districts such as South Down and Lurgan, while important high-density areas such as Ballymena, Moira and Lame maintained their importance. The rate of decline in stock densities was more pronounced in eastern regions, while in many western districts levels remained much the same at both dates. This has tended to reduce the spatial disparity in the intensity of livestock across the province which was evident in 1974. Though not of primary importance in eastern regions in 1974 (Edwards, 1977), beef breeding cow numbers declined sharply by 1986. This, coupled with a decline in pig and poultry numbers, which were of particular importance in the eastern lowlands of Co. Antrim and Co. Down and in areas west of Lough Neagh (Edwards, 1977), had led to an overall decline in SUs which has not been offset by increases in the dairy or sheep sectors. In western districts changes in livestock densities were less pronounced, and where these have resulted (e.g. Castlederg, Clogher and Irvingstown) it was largely as a result again of declining beef breeding cow numbers. Increases in sheep numbers complicate the picture, however, and can be said to illustrate an almost classical case of the spatial expansion of a production system in response to increased economic advantage. Rising flock numbers in hill districts, such as Lame, Londonderry and Strabane, maintained, or even, in the case of S. Down, increased stock densities as intensification occurred in 'core' sheep farming regions. Expansion of sheep numbers into the lowlands, particularly those areas close to the 'core' regions, in the north-west, to a large extent offset the decline in numbers in other livestock sectors. In areas where sheep were unimportant in 1974 (Edwards, 1977), particularly in the belt of unsuitable, wetter lowlands from the Lagan valley in
Spatial Changes in Livestock Production
"N--
RURAL
1. 6. 12. 17. 21. 27. 32. 37.
t
. . . .
281
"~-
i
DISTRICTS:
Antrim Larne Newry No. 2 East Down Newry No. 1 Lisnaskea Magherafelt Dungannon
2, 7. 13. 18. 22. 29. 34. 38.
Ballycastle Lisburn Tandragee Hillsborough North Down Coleraine Castrederg Strabane
3. 10. 15. 19. 25. 30. 35.
Ballymena Armagh Banbridge South Down Enniskillen Limavady Clougher
4. 11. 16. 20. 26. 31. 36.
Ballymoney Lurgan Castlereagh Moira Irvinestown Londonderry Cookstown
Figure 2. Livestock densities.
the east, through Co. Armagh to Co. Fermanagh, sheep numbers did not increase significantly (Edwards, 1987) and have not offset losses in other areas, so that these areas represent a major belt of declining stock density in the province. Livestock combinations Changes in numbers of livestock in each sector have led to changes in their relative importance in particular regions and to a modification of the geography of livestock production within the province. This can be illustrated by the computation and comparison of livestock combinations within each district at the two study dates. As might be expected, no one type of livestock dominates in any single district; rather, complexity of combinations is more typical (Fig. 3). The level of complexity was reduced, however, between 1974 and 1986. At the earlier date 25 districts (81% of districts) were found to combine four or more significant livestock types. By 1986, however, this was reduced to only 16 districts (52%). Figure 3 and the data in Table 2 illustrate these changes. Beef fattening formed the most spatially dominant enterprise in N. Ireland at both dates,
being ranked as a significant enterprise in all 3l districts in both 1974 and 1986, and at no time falling below third place in order of importance. However, its overall spatial dominance had declined somewhat by 1986, in that beef fattening was found to be the leading enterprise in only 18 as opposed to 22 districts, losing ground particularly to sheep production in the north-west and the Mourne mountain area. Beef breeding, on the other hand, suffered a considerable decline in spatial importance. In 1974 it was also found as a significant enterprise in all 31 districts, and was particularly important as a secondranked enterprise. By 1986, however, beef breeding numbers were only found to be significant in 23 districts, most commonly now third or fourth in order of importance. Dairy cattle, on the other hand, slightly increased occurrence in combination and gained considerable ground as a second-ranked enterprise, their importance spreading particularly into lowland districts in the west of the province. Sheep were deemed to be of only localized importance in 1974 (Edwards, 1977). Increased numbers in this sector, however, inevitably changed the relative importance of sheep in combinations. They were found to be significant in a large number of districts, while assuming a dominant, first-rank order in no less than 7 areas by 1986 (Table 2).
282
C.J.W. Edwards
1974
'~
TYPE OF LIVESTOCK
V//~//////////Z/AIIIIIIIIIIII]IIk
[~j~..~,;~
"r;x'c"f//'///~////A'XLI3"u~P'F'e"HI'PlLVd°F*P
;~2.,
F
.
'~
1986
/~i:ig//.(//A~llllllllh
r. ~ / / / ~ F D S B ;
k 2 1Belfast
Figure 3. Livestock combinations. Table 2. Enterprise frequencies Frequency of occurrence in combination
1974 Dairy Beef breeding Beef fattening Sheep Pigs Poultry Total 1986 Dairy Beef breeding Beef fattening Sheep Pigs Poultry Total
First rank
Second rank
Third rank
Fourth rank
Fifth rank
Sixth rank
Total occurrence
5 3 22 1 ---
7 13 8 1 2 --
14 10 1 3 -3
4 3 -4 3 11
-2 -1 4 4
---2 1 --
25 31 31 12 10 18 127
4 2 18 7
15 1 12 2
8 11 1 7
1 9 -2
-l ---
-----
28 23 31 18
--
--
--
--
1
--
3
Pigs and poultry, significant in few areas in 1974 and at low rank levels, as might be expected following an overall decline in numbers, became even less important spatially, being found significant in only relatively few districts, largely confined to a belt from N. Down along the Lagan valley to the lowlands south and west of Lough Neagh. Despite the complexity of the derived combinations, a simplification of spatial changes in the regional patterns of livestock production can be observed by mapping areas according to their leading livestock enterprise (Fig. 3). The dominance of beef fattening cattle over large areas of the province in 1974 is clearly evident, with only areas of dairy cattle and sheep in Co. Antrim and beef breeding cattle in parts of Fermanagh and Tyrone complicating this simple picture.
2
4
--
--
--
3
7 110
By 1986, however, a degree of spatial change can be observed. Although beef fattening still dominated over large areas, its spatial pre-eminence declined. This is particularly true in the north-west and in the Mournes area where sheep become predominant, and in N. Down where dairying assumed first place. Fattening, however, did increase in certain areas, at the expense of dairying in the Antrim district and beef breeding in the Omagh area of Co. Tyrone. The period between 1974 and 1986 therefore saw an overall decline in livestock numbers and a fall in stock densities in the province. During this period of considerable political and economic change, individual farmers' perceptions of the comparative advantage of various types of livestock changed. The consequent adjustments made on individual farms thus cumulatively brought about clearly noticeable
Spatial Changes in Livestock Production changes at a regional scale, in the spatial distribution of livestock and in the relationship between various livestock types within Northern Ireland.
References
Attwood, E.A. and Heavy, J.F. (1964) Determination of grazing livestock units. Irish Journal of Agricultural Research 3,249-251. Bowler, I.R. (1986) Intensification, concentration and specialisation in agriculture; the case of the European Community. Geography 71, 14-24. Coppock, J.T. (1964, 1976) An Agricultural Atlas of England and Wales. Faber and Faber, London. Department of Agriculture for Northern Ireland (DAM) (1978) Statistical Review of Northern Ireland Agriculture (197). HMSO, Belfast, 74. Edwards, C.J.W. (1976) Short term changes in farm enterprise systems: a case study from Co. Londonderry 1972-1975. Irish Journal of Agricultural Economics and Rural Sociology 6, 155-175. Edwards, C.J.W. (1977) The spatial distribution of livestock in Northern Ireland. Irish Geography 10, 58-71. Edwards, C.J,W. (1980) Complexity and change in farm production systems: a Somerset case study. Transactions of the Institute of British Geographers 5, 45-52. Edwards, C.J.W. (1987) The changing role of sheep production in Northern Ireland agriculture. Irish Geography 20, 98-100. Furness, G.W. (1982) Some features of farm income and structure variations in regions of the United Kingdom. Journal of Agricultural Economics 33,289-309. Gillmor, D.A. (1970) Spatial distribution of livestock in the Republic of Ireland. Economic Geography 46,587597.
283
Gillmor, D.A. (1987) Concentration of enterprises and spatial change in the agriculture of the Republic of Ireland. Economic Geography 46,587-597. Gillmor, D.A. (1987) Concentration of enterprises and spatial change in the agriculture of the Republic of Ireland. Transactions of the Institute of British Geog,raphers 12,204-216. Irwin, J.H.D. (1986) The Northern Ireland sheep industry: present and future. Agriculture in Northern Ireland 1, 9-1(/. Kirke, A.W. (1988) Farm Business Data. Economics and Statistics Division, Dept. of Agriculture for Northern Ireland. McGaughy, J. (1987) Lowland sheep in clover. Agriculture in Northern Ireland 1, 10-11. McKee, J.A. (1986) Profitability of lowland breeding ewes. Agriculture in Northern Ireland 61, 149-152. Rea, C. (1989) The place of pig production on Northern Ireland farms. Agriculture in Northern Ireland 3, 18-19. Stainer, T.F. (1985) An Analysis of Economic Levels in Northern Ireland Agriculture since 1970. Economics and Statistics Division, Dept. of Agriculture for Northern Ireland. Symons, L. (1970) Rural land utilisation in Northern Ireland. In Irish Geographical Studies in Honour of E. Estyn Evans, Stephens, N. and Galsscock, R.E. (eds). pp. 259-273. The Queens University, Belfast. Thomas, D, (1963) Agriculture in Wales during the Napoleonic Wars. University of Wales Press, Cardiff. Ulster Yearbook (I974-1984) HMSO, Belfast. Walsh, J.A. (1989) Enterprise substitution in Irish agriculture: sheep production in the 1980s. Irish Geography 22, l (16-109.
Weaver, J.C. (1954) Crop combinations in the Middle West. Geographical Review 44, 175-200. Winsberg, M.D. (1980)Concentration and specialisation in United States agriculture, 1939-1978. Economic Geography 56, 183-189.
0743-0167/91 $3.00 + 0.00 Pergamon Press pie
Printed in Great Britain
Spatial Changes in Livestock Production in Northern Ireland: 1974-1986 C.J.W. Edwards Department of Environmental Studies, University of Ulster, Northern Ireland
Abstract - - This paper examines the spatial changes that occurred in patterns of
livestock production in Northern Ireland during the period since the United Kingdom's entry into the EC. In a province where agriculture is dominated by livestock production, total livestock numbers and stock densities declined during the period, while the popularity of individual types of livestock varied, following policy changes both nationally and under the CAP. The paper illustrates and briefly discusses the reasons for such changes, but pays particular attention to the geographical effect they have had in altering spatial patterns of livestock production at a regional scale within Northern Ireland.
production inevitably change through time as a cumulative result of necessary adjustments made at an individual farm level, in response to changing circumstances.
Introduction
Production and sale of livestock and livestock products forms the principal element in the rural economy of Northern Ireland (Department of Agriculture for Northern Ireland ( D A N I ) , 1978, p. 14; Symons, 1970; Edwards, 1977; Furness, 1982; Ulster Yearbooks, 1974-1984). It has been demonstrated that regional variations occur across the province in the scale and nature of various types of livestock production in response to varied physical, social, economic and political factors, which in turn lead to the development of distinctive spatial patterns of production (Edwards, 1977). However, such patterns must never be regarded as static phenomena. Studies both in Ireland (Edwards, 1976, 1987: Gillmor, 1987) and elsewhere (Bowler, 1986; Coppock, 1964, 1976; Edwards, 1980; Winsberg, 1980) illustrate that spatial patterns of agricultural
The aim of this study, therefore, is to examine and briefly account for the scale and nature of changes that have occurred in livestock production in Northern Ireland, and more particularly, to illustrate the effect such adjustments have had upon spatial patterns of production in the province. The period chosen for study lies between 1974, when such patterns were documented (Edwards, 1977) and 1986, a period which has been marked both by considerable structural changes within the industry, particularly with the continued intensification of the pig and poultry sectors (Table 1) and by changing political and economic circumstances attendant upon the entry of the United Kingdom into the EC.
Table 1. Structural changes in livestock enterprises: 1974-1986 Percentage of total stock farms with above-average size units
Average size of enterprise
Dairy cows Beef cows Sheep Pigs Poultry (laying flocks under 5(1 hens)
Percentage of total farms with above-average size enterprises
1974
1986
1974
1986
1974
t986
19 13 105 65 1988
39 12 176 153 5925
68.6 69.5 74.5 76.3 83.5
68.6 72.1 72.9 83.1 89.0
32.9 30.9 31.9 26.9 5.4
38.3 34.2 32.6 20.2 3.9
Source: Dept. of Agriculture for Northern Ireland, Economics and Statistics Division.
277
278
C.J.W. Edwards
Data sources and methodology
ditions. Though somewhat dated, these correspond closely to factors currently in use by the Department of Agriculture for Northern Ireland [Kirke, 1988 (and pers. comm.)]. In addition, they have been widely used in studies of agricultural distributions throughout Ireland (Gillmor, 1970; Edwards, 1977; Walsh, 1989), and it was therefore thought appropriate to continue to use them in order to allow direct comparison with previously published material. Stock densities in each district were calculated on the basis of total livestock units per 'adjusted' hectare, using a 6:1 ratio between rough grazing and improved crops and grassland as recommended by Gillmor (1970), to take account of the lower grazing value of physically marginal land.
Restrictions on access to individual farm production returns collected by the Department of Agriculture for Northern Ireland because of necessary confidentiality, and the absence of disaggregated data at a small area scale, limit spatial analysis to an inevitably generalized rural district level. At this scale detailed data are available on numbers of different types of livestock within each district on an annual basis (DANI, pers. comm., 1974/1986). Accordingly, analysis is based on changes in livestock numbers within the 3l rural districts of Northern Ireland between 1974 and 1986. Subdivisions within the published database enable cattle numbers to be classified into three main production categories for the purpose of this study: dairy cattle (including both production animals and young stock being bred as replacements for the dairy herd), beef breeding cows and replacements, and those cattle being reared and fattened specifically for beef production. Though it is also possible to subdivide sheep and pig numbers, it was not felt appropriate to do so at the scale of this study. In the case of poultry, comparable data at both dates are only available for the laying flock at the rural district level, and an analysis of the spatial distribution of the increasingly important broiler sector at the district level is therefore unfortunately impossible.
Finally, livestock combinations were computed for each rural district, using the least-squares method as devised by Weaver (1954) and subsequently modified by Thomas (1963). Changes in total livestock Preliminary calculations of total livestock units for the province as a whole on the basis of such conversions record a total of 1,428,837 SUs for 1986, which represents an overall fall in stock numbers of some 10.5% since 1974. Such a generalized figure, however, inevitably masks more interesting fluctuations among individual livestock categories, and changes in the inter-relationships between them. Changes in total SUs in each category under discussion are illustrated in Fig. 1, together with their individual proportional share of total livestock units at both dates, and the percentage change in numbers in each category over the period.
In order to make meaningful comparisons between different types of livestock, simple numerical totals were transformed into livestock unit equivalents (SUs), using conversion factors based upon cow equivalents calculated by Attwood and Heavy (1964) and deemed to be suitable for Irish con-
% Share % Change of Total SUs in Total SUs
Livestock Type
1974 1986
500 ~
~
1
~
~
1
~
~
1
~
31.3
+ 4.4
Beet rearing/ Fattening
÷ 21.8
Dairying
+ 76.9
Sheep
- 41.1
Beet Breeding
400 0
c
300
200
100
.
9.4 0
r
1974
r
1978
1982
5.6
.29.0
- 47.3
i
1986
Year
Figure 1. Northern Ireland: changes in livestock units 1974-1986.
pi
s
Poultry
Spatial Changes in Livestock Production Beef rearing and fattening remained the numerically most important sector of the livestock industry, demonstrating the smallest rates of change of all sectors over the period. Though overall SUs in this sector increased by 4.4%, its proportional share of total SUs declined somewhat from 32.8% in 1974 to 31.3% in 1986. The most noticeable feature of this sector, however, is its volatility. Comparison of the peaks and troughs of the line graph for beef fattening in Fig. 1 with the rather smoother trends displayed by other sectors aptly illustrates this feature. This phenomenon is in no small part due to the fact that beef fattening is a sector of the livestock industry which has relatively lower fixed capital costs, which enables farmers to move rapidly into, and out of, beef fattening in response to price fluctuations in the market. Beef fattening numbers, for example, were rising rapidly at the start of the period in response to high expectations of improved prices in a wider EC market. By 1974 the beef herd had increased by 85,000 (over 30%) in three years. A glut of beef, low returns and a consequent loss of confidence in 1975 resulted in a marked drop in numbers in 1976, which had the effect of improving prices, such that numbers again increased from 1977. In addition to its responsiveness to market trends, however, beef fattening is also heavily dependent for its raw material source, young cattle, on the changing attitudes and fortunes of the beef breeding and dairy sectors. The fall-off in numbers in the early 1980s, such that store cattle were being imported from the Republic of Ireland in 1980 to fulfil the demand for beef fattening (Ulster Yearbook, 1981, p. 163), must in part at least be attributable to the sharp continuing decline in breeding cow numbers, for reasons to be discussed, which was only later in the period offset by the availability of increased numbers of cross-bred stock from an expanding dairy sector. From a high point in 1974 based on increased expectations at EC entry, beef breeding cow numbers declined markedly over the period, as a result of low returns from the beef sector in general. However. the fall in numbers was also affected by the increasing use of beef bulls, particularly continental breeds, as crossing sires within an expanding dairy industry, whose progeny played an increasingly important part in supplying the beef fattening sector, at the expense of the specialist beef breeder. Decline in numbers slowed temporarily in 1976, following the replacement of the old Hill Cow Subsidy by the more favourable subsidy levels of the EC Hill Livestock (Compensatory Allowance) Scheme in the Less Favoured Areas. The sharp decline was renewed, however, as lowland beef breeding herds in particular were further reduced
279
following the removal of the Beef Cattle (Breeding Herds) Scheme in 1977. The decline was only slowed in 1980, following the introduction of the EC Suckler Cow Premium Scheme, from which time numbers have remained relatively stable. Dairy numbers, in contrast, increased steadily over much of the earlier part of the period under review, rising to a peak of more than 350,000 SUs in 1984. This rise reflects the considerable incentive offered to farmers from a regular income from milk, through the operation of the Milk Marketing Board, which offset occasional reductions in profit margins and the high fixed capital costs of this production system. Increased use of high-yielding Friesian cows (Edwards, 1977) together with the additional income to be derived from cross-bred bullocks and surplus heifers of good beefing quality also increased the commercial attractiveness of dairying. The steady upward trend in what had become the second most important element of the livestock industry in terms of SUs (Fig. l) was reversed in 1984 following the introduction of the EC dairy quota system. Although the immediate impact on dairy farming was softened by the 'import' of additional quota from mainland Britain, a reduction of some 3.6% in the number of dairy SUs took place between 1984 and 1986, as farmers sought to adjust to the quotas and to the resultant loss of earnings from milk. Probably the most dramatic change during the study period however, and certainly one which is most noticeable in the landscape, particularly in the lowlands, is the marked rise in the sheep population of the province (Edwards, 1987). In 1974 sheep accounted for only 8.9% of all stock units, following a long period of decline through the 1960s. Indeed decline continued until, in 1976, numbers began to recover slowly following a 21% rise in producer prices, and the improved EC Hill Livestock (Compensatory Allowance) subsidy levels. Numbers continued to rise slowly as prices improved: for example, by 1977 prices had increased by 50% on 1975 levels (Ulster Yearbook, 1978/1979). The most dramatic increases, however, followed the introduction of the Sheep Annual Premium Scheme in 1980 as part of the EC Sheep Regime. Under this scheme, premiums were payable on breeding ewes not only in hill areas but also in the lowlands, which led to a marked improvement in the relative profitability of the lowland flock. The sheep sector was further stimulated (McKee, 1986; McGaughey, 1987) by a steady rise in rates of premium (Irwin, 1986), coupled with an expansion of markets when N. Ireland gained open access to European markets following an EC decision in 1982 to establish the
280
C.J.W. Edwards
province as a separate region from the rest of the U.K. for marketing purposes (Irwin, 1986; Edwards, 1987), which allowed sheep farmers to benefit from direct access to an EC which was only 78% selfsufficient in sheepmeat. The net result of these changing circumstances was that total stock units in sheep rose by 76.9% by 1986. [Recently acquired statistics (DANI, pers. comm., 1988) suggest a further rise by 1988 to 114.3% of the 1974 level.] As well as increasing significantly in their traditional hill regions, sheep now play an increasingly important role on many erstwhile lowland beef farms and indeed on many have assumed the dominant role. Increasing numbers are also now found on dairy farms, either as regular breeding flocks grazing land made available following dairy quota cut-backs, or in fattening flocks, traditionally brought in over winter to clean off surplus grass growth. As profits from dairying have declined, sheep have for many farmers provided a relatively low cost method of bridging an increasing income 'gap'. The small, but none the less economically important intensive livestock sectors of pigs and poultry both exhibited a steady decline in numbers over the period. Profitability in both these sectors is heavily dependent on the cost of feedstuffs, much of which has to be imported into Northern Ireland. Falling profitability due to rises in cereal and protein prices as a result of world shortages in the early 1970s was the initial cause of a sharp decline in the pig herd and to a lesser extent in the poultry flock. However, Stainer (1985) suggests that entry to the EC, coupled with a fall in consumption of eggs, bacon and ham in the traditional GB market has prevented recovery in these sectors. Northern Ireland producers have been cut off from access to cheaper grains from the world market and forced to buy cereals at prices which have been maintained at a high level under the CAP. For example, feed costs rose by some 30% in one year in 1976 (Ulster Yearbook, 1977, p. 150). Pigs and poultry on the other hand are not well supported under the CAP because of self-sufficiency in these products. In addition, as Stainer states (1985, pp. 57-58) Northern Ireland producers face the problem of having to import the bulk of their feed requirements at a price considerably above that paid in GB and then have to pay transport costs to export the major part of their produce to the GB market. These problems were exacerbated in the case of pigs, by the abandonment of the Fatstock Guarantee Scheme for pigs in 1975. Pig numbers, it is true, declined less rapidly than poultry, and have stabilized since 1981 (Rea, 1989). The fall-off in poultry numbers on the other hand, while being more rapid, has been partly offset by increased production per bird from highyielding hybrid hens. Productivity per bird increased from 169 eggs per bird in 1959 to 235 per bird in 1976
(Ulster Yearbook, 1978, p. 147). Additionally, many egg producers converted to broiler production so that the decline in the laying flock was more than offset by increases in the table flock. Unfortunately, because of a lack of comparative data, this new and important sector cannot be discussed in detail.
Spatial changes in stock density Changes in the number of stock in each category have resulted in changes in the established patterns of the intensity of livestock production across the province, illustrated by changes in livestock densities. Comparison between 1974 and 1986 (Fig. 2) reveals a general but clearly visible fall in stock densities (SU/adjusted ha) in many areas. The movement is not, however, all in one direction, stock densities having increased in rural districts such as South Down and Lurgan, while important high-density areas such as Ballymena, Moira and Lame maintained their importance. The rate of decline in stock densities was more pronounced in eastern regions, while in many western districts levels remained much the same at both dates. This has tended to reduce the spatial disparity in the intensity of livestock across the province which was evident in 1974. Though not of primary importance in eastern regions in 1974 (Edwards, 1977), beef breeding cow numbers declined sharply by 1986. This, coupled with a decline in pig and poultry numbers, which were of particular importance in the eastern lowlands of Co. Antrim and Co. Down and in areas west of Lough Neagh (Edwards, 1977), had led to an overall decline in SUs which has not been offset by increases in the dairy or sheep sectors. In western districts changes in livestock densities were less pronounced, and where these have resulted (e.g. Castlederg, Clogher and Irvingstown) it was largely as a result again of declining beef breeding cow numbers. Increases in sheep numbers complicate the picture, however, and can be said to illustrate an almost classical case of the spatial expansion of a production system in response to increased economic advantage. Rising flock numbers in hill districts, such as Lame, Londonderry and Strabane, maintained, or even, in the case of S. Down, increased stock densities as intensification occurred in 'core' sheep farming regions. Expansion of sheep numbers into the lowlands, particularly those areas close to the 'core' regions, in the north-west, to a large extent offset the decline in numbers in other livestock sectors. In areas where sheep were unimportant in 1974 (Edwards, 1977), particularly in the belt of unsuitable, wetter lowlands from the Lagan valley in
Spatial Changes in Livestock Production
"N--
RURAL
1. 6. 12. 17. 21. 27. 32. 37.
t
. . . .
281
"~-
i
DISTRICTS:
Antrim Larne Newry No. 2 East Down Newry No. 1 Lisnaskea Magherafelt Dungannon
2, 7. 13. 18. 22. 29. 34. 38.
Ballycastle Lisburn Tandragee Hillsborough North Down Coleraine Castrederg Strabane
3. 10. 15. 19. 25. 30. 35.
Ballymena Armagh Banbridge South Down Enniskillen Limavady Clougher
4. 11. 16. 20. 26. 31. 36.
Ballymoney Lurgan Castlereagh Moira Irvinestown Londonderry Cookstown
Figure 2. Livestock densities.
the east, through Co. Armagh to Co. Fermanagh, sheep numbers did not increase significantly (Edwards, 1987) and have not offset losses in other areas, so that these areas represent a major belt of declining stock density in the province. Livestock combinations Changes in numbers of livestock in each sector have led to changes in their relative importance in particular regions and to a modification of the geography of livestock production within the province. This can be illustrated by the computation and comparison of livestock combinations within each district at the two study dates. As might be expected, no one type of livestock dominates in any single district; rather, complexity of combinations is more typical (Fig. 3). The level of complexity was reduced, however, between 1974 and 1986. At the earlier date 25 districts (81% of districts) were found to combine four or more significant livestock types. By 1986, however, this was reduced to only 16 districts (52%). Figure 3 and the data in Table 2 illustrate these changes. Beef fattening formed the most spatially dominant enterprise in N. Ireland at both dates,
being ranked as a significant enterprise in all 3l districts in both 1974 and 1986, and at no time falling below third place in order of importance. However, its overall spatial dominance had declined somewhat by 1986, in that beef fattening was found to be the leading enterprise in only 18 as opposed to 22 districts, losing ground particularly to sheep production in the north-west and the Mourne mountain area. Beef breeding, on the other hand, suffered a considerable decline in spatial importance. In 1974 it was also found as a significant enterprise in all 31 districts, and was particularly important as a secondranked enterprise. By 1986, however, beef breeding numbers were only found to be significant in 23 districts, most commonly now third or fourth in order of importance. Dairy cattle, on the other hand, slightly increased occurrence in combination and gained considerable ground as a second-ranked enterprise, their importance spreading particularly into lowland districts in the west of the province. Sheep were deemed to be of only localized importance in 1974 (Edwards, 1977). Increased numbers in this sector, however, inevitably changed the relative importance of sheep in combinations. They were found to be significant in a large number of districts, while assuming a dominant, first-rank order in no less than 7 areas by 1986 (Table 2).
282
C.J.W. Edwards
1974
'~
TYPE OF LIVESTOCK
V//~//////////Z/AIIIIIIIIIIII]IIk
[~j~..~,;~
"r;x'c"f//'///~////A'XLI3"u~P'F'e"HI'PlLVd°F*P
;~2.,
F
.
'~
1986
/~i:ig//.(//A~llllllllh
r. ~ / / / ~ F D S B ;
k 2 1Belfast
Figure 3. Livestock combinations. Table 2. Enterprise frequencies Frequency of occurrence in combination
1974 Dairy Beef breeding Beef fattening Sheep Pigs Poultry Total 1986 Dairy Beef breeding Beef fattening Sheep Pigs Poultry Total
First rank
Second rank
Third rank
Fourth rank
Fifth rank
Sixth rank
Total occurrence
5 3 22 1 ---
7 13 8 1 2 --
14 10 1 3 -3
4 3 -4 3 11
-2 -1 4 4
---2 1 --
25 31 31 12 10 18 127
4 2 18 7
15 1 12 2
8 11 1 7
1 9 -2
-l ---
-----
28 23 31 18
--
--
--
--
1
--
3
Pigs and poultry, significant in few areas in 1974 and at low rank levels, as might be expected following an overall decline in numbers, became even less important spatially, being found significant in only relatively few districts, largely confined to a belt from N. Down along the Lagan valley to the lowlands south and west of Lough Neagh. Despite the complexity of the derived combinations, a simplification of spatial changes in the regional patterns of livestock production can be observed by mapping areas according to their leading livestock enterprise (Fig. 3). The dominance of beef fattening cattle over large areas of the province in 1974 is clearly evident, with only areas of dairy cattle and sheep in Co. Antrim and beef breeding cattle in parts of Fermanagh and Tyrone complicating this simple picture.
2
4
--
--
--
3
7 110
By 1986, however, a degree of spatial change can be observed. Although beef fattening still dominated over large areas, its spatial pre-eminence declined. This is particularly true in the north-west and in the Mournes area where sheep become predominant, and in N. Down where dairying assumed first place. Fattening, however, did increase in certain areas, at the expense of dairying in the Antrim district and beef breeding in the Omagh area of Co. Tyrone. The period between 1974 and 1986 therefore saw an overall decline in livestock numbers and a fall in stock densities in the province. During this period of considerable political and economic change, individual farmers' perceptions of the comparative advantage of various types of livestock changed. The consequent adjustments made on individual farms thus cumulatively brought about clearly noticeable
Spatial Changes in Livestock Production changes at a regional scale, in the spatial distribution of livestock and in the relationship between various livestock types within Northern Ireland.
References
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Gillmor, D.A. (1987) Concentration of enterprises and spatial change in the agriculture of the Republic of Ireland. Economic Geography 46,587-597. Gillmor, D.A. (1987) Concentration of enterprises and spatial change in the agriculture of the Republic of Ireland. Transactions of the Institute of British Geog,raphers 12,204-216. Irwin, J.H.D. (1986) The Northern Ireland sheep industry: present and future. Agriculture in Northern Ireland 1, 9-1(/. Kirke, A.W. (1988) Farm Business Data. Economics and Statistics Division, Dept. of Agriculture for Northern Ireland. McGaughy, J. (1987) Lowland sheep in clover. Agriculture in Northern Ireland 1, 10-11. McKee, J.A. (1986) Profitability of lowland breeding ewes. Agriculture in Northern Ireland 61, 149-152. Rea, C. (1989) The place of pig production on Northern Ireland farms. Agriculture in Northern Ireland 3, 18-19. Stainer, T.F. (1985) An Analysis of Economic Levels in Northern Ireland Agriculture since 1970. Economics and Statistics Division, Dept. of Agriculture for Northern Ireland. Symons, L. (1970) Rural land utilisation in Northern Ireland. In Irish Geographical Studies in Honour of E. Estyn Evans, Stephens, N. and Galsscock, R.E. (eds). pp. 259-273. The Queens University, Belfast. Thomas, D, (1963) Agriculture in Wales during the Napoleonic Wars. University of Wales Press, Cardiff. Ulster Yearbook (I974-1984) HMSO, Belfast. Walsh, J.A. (1989) Enterprise substitution in Irish agriculture: sheep production in the 1980s. Irish Geography 22, l (16-109.
Weaver, J.C. (1954) Crop combinations in the Middle West. Geographical Review 44, 175-200. Winsberg, M.D. (1980)Concentration and specialisation in United States agriculture, 1939-1978. Economic Geography 56, 183-189.