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Spatial dynamics and optimal space-time development
Bool~ Revtews
The book employs the brick and mortar method. There are many bricks, all more or less conventional: production functions, consumption functions, investment functions and many more. They use the normal economic ingredients: elasticities, factor shares, growth rates. There are many sectors, not only geographic sectors but also activity sectors, of which energy and agriculture are singled out. There are interactions between these sectors, including trade. Input-output analysis is advocated to "reconciliate" the data so that the accounting identities square. After all is said and done, global imports should equal global exports. Whether input-output glue is quite adequate to cement the blocks together is not transparently clear to this reviewer. Wlule the book presents many functions (nearly all borrowed from existing sources) "ripe" for statistical estimation, it never does get down to the nitty gritty of actually estimating - or to a discussion of problems which might arise. Ordinary least squares? The author does not appear to ever acknowledge that there might be problems on this score. The massive amount of data required makes the model(s) not operationally viable. Reading of pp. 91 and 102 may be useful to realize that the author here at least acknowledges the problems, but ad hoccery and rule of thumbery may not be equal to the task. The text uses notation which is logical and mnemonic in the extreme, but irritating and complicated nonetheless. Inputs are m and output is z, whence mrze stands for the elasticity of import requirements with respect to output. Thus it is that mrisde, xczc and cbcc2 are born. As a devotee of Swedish cars, s.a.a.b, wins my prize. It stands for sex and age adjusted birthrate. The text is written.as if the computer age does not exist. This is a pity, for the display would have won considerably had flowcharting devices been employed. The original Club of Rome effort, of which this is a second cousin once removed was more adept in presenting its results in a catchy ~llanner.
In summary, v.o.i.v.o., for very obscure learning value opportunity.
John C.G. BOOT State University of New York
Buffalo, U.S.A.
215
Walter ISARD and Panagis LIOSSATOS
Spatial Dynamics and Optimal Space-Time Development Volume 4 in: Studies in Regional Science and Urban Economics, North-Holland, Amsterdam, 1979, xvii + 434 pages, Dfl.55.00 Professor Isard's outstanding contribution to the social sciences is well established and widely recognized by scholars in this field. His intellectual capacity, unceasing perseverance, and strong convictions gave rise to a new field of study - Regional Science. lsard, the fot, nder of the first Regional Science Department in the United States some 25 years ago, should be proud of the distinguished generation of scholars-researchers and practitioners who graduated from his own program as well as from affiliated programs throughout the world. Indeed, these regional scientists can be found today in outstanding learning and research institutions in both the West and the East. Isard's impact upon the development of the regional science field is well documented in the endless list of articles and books which he published. This book, which is volume 4 in the series "Studies in Regional Science and Urban Economics", is a continuation of the manifesto which Professor Isard began advancing some 25 years ago with the first volume in this series--Locatton and Space-Economy. The book represents an expansion and extension of Isard's continuing evolution of thoughts in respect to the dimensions and boundaries of Regional Science. In volume 3: General Theory, Isard attempted to develop a general theory which could encompass the theories of other social science fields related to urban and regional analysis. This volume is an effort to rectify deficiencies found in Volume 3 with the development of an adequate dynamic analysis. It ig :an attempt to formulate the complex social system, as it relates particularly to space in a dynamic analytical framework. Both space and time interact and affect the social system; they affect spatial flow, location of activities, and land-use patterns. Although the book presents only a theoretical construction of the notions of time and space the authors hope that their work will inspire others and facilitate the development of techniques with which regional science problems can be analyzed,
216
Book Reviews
better understood, and eventually even solved. Unfortunately, despite the authors' declared objective, the theoretical models developed in the various chapters throughout the text do not shed much new light on our general understanding of the social system and the impact of public policies on it. The concept of time is treated frequently in the text in a philosophical or metaphysical sense particularly when time-space is discussed in association with the general relativity theory. Dynamic analysis of socio-economic and political systems are not exactly a novelty. Growth models in economics have for quite some time incorporated the dynamics of change over time in the form of technological changes and augmentation of factors of production such as labor and capital. However, the extension of the dynamic analysis to include space as discrete location points, or even as a continuous space, introduces an important new dimension. It is clear that our comprehension and understanding nowadays cannot advance much beyond the simplified two-regions two-sectors (commodities) economic growth models. Therefore, multi-regions multi-commodities production and consumption models in which both space and time are presented are difficult, if not impossible, to construct, comprehend, analyze and understand. Most of the models developed in the text represent primarily a maze of complex mathematical notations, which are quite difficult to follow but, more importantly, may deprive or even alienate the prospective audience. To sum it up then, it is unfortunate that this volume follows in the footsteps of its predecessor, Volume 3, in that it deals with abstract notions and theoretical models, which are difficult to-follow. By making it difficult reading it becomes even less accessible to potential readers. Daniel SCHEFER T,:e Worm Bank Washington, DC, U.S.A. Winfried K. GRASSMANN
Stochastic Systems for Management Elsevier, New York, 1981, xii + 358 pages, $27.95 This book is a feasible solution to the problem of finding an optimal text on the Stochastic aspects
of Operational Research or Management Science for undergraduate students with no background in Probability Theory. Thus the level of mathematics used is kept low and Professor Grassmann stresses concepts rather than mathematical derivations and illustrates the main ideas by numerous examples from business and industry. In meeting his task the author organized the structure of the book in the following way: Chapter 1 is a small introductory chapter which explains the terms random and stochastic in a non-mathematical way and also describes what a system is and why systems are important for making managerial decisions. Chapter 2 concentrates mostly on deterministic systems which are described by providing examples from management problems both for the discrete and the continuous time case. Also the equilibrium and steady-state concepts of the systems are introduced in terms of examples. Chapter 3 under the title "Mathematical Laws of Randomness" is an introductory chapter in probability theory. The concepts of random variables, discrete and continuous, independence, correlation, expectations and variances, are introduced. Chapter 4 with the title "Discrete Stochastic Systems" introduces the basic concepts of Markov chains. With illustrative examples concepts such as, transition matrices, Kolmogoroph equations, limiting behavior are stressed. Chapter 5 dicusses the distributions often encountered in practice apart from the normal distibution, lllustrative examples are given for each distribution. Chapter 6 deals with the normal distribution and the Central Limit Theorem in the same way. Chapter 7 deals with continuous time stochastic processes and in particular with the Poisson process. Illustrative examples stress the basic concepts. Chapter 8 discusses birth-death processes in equilibrium. Some fundamentals of queuing theory are also given such as classification of queuing systems, single server queue, multiserver queues and finally some results on the M / G / I queue. Chapter 9 deals with the expectation of one random variable, functions of several random variables, conditional expectations and other related topics. Chapter 10 discusses the basic ideas of optimization and provides the Newton method. Some important applications of optimization such as optimizing a simple queuing system and some simple cases of inventory control are also discussed. Chapter 11 deals with sequential decisions.
The book employs the brick and mortar method. There are many bricks, all more or less conventional: production functions, consumption functions, investment functions and many more. They use the normal economic ingredients: elasticities, factor shares, growth rates. There are many sectors, not only geographic sectors but also activity sectors, of which energy and agriculture are singled out. There are interactions between these sectors, including trade. Input-output analysis is advocated to "reconciliate" the data so that the accounting identities square. After all is said and done, global imports should equal global exports. Whether input-output glue is quite adequate to cement the blocks together is not transparently clear to this reviewer. Wlule the book presents many functions (nearly all borrowed from existing sources) "ripe" for statistical estimation, it never does get down to the nitty gritty of actually estimating - or to a discussion of problems which might arise. Ordinary least squares? The author does not appear to ever acknowledge that there might be problems on this score. The massive amount of data required makes the model(s) not operationally viable. Reading of pp. 91 and 102 may be useful to realize that the author here at least acknowledges the problems, but ad hoccery and rule of thumbery may not be equal to the task. The text uses notation which is logical and mnemonic in the extreme, but irritating and complicated nonetheless. Inputs are m and output is z, whence mrze stands for the elasticity of import requirements with respect to output. Thus it is that mrisde, xczc and cbcc2 are born. As a devotee of Swedish cars, s.a.a.b, wins my prize. It stands for sex and age adjusted birthrate. The text is written.as if the computer age does not exist. This is a pity, for the display would have won considerably had flowcharting devices been employed. The original Club of Rome effort, of which this is a second cousin once removed was more adept in presenting its results in a catchy ~llanner.
In summary, v.o.i.v.o., for very obscure learning value opportunity.
John C.G. BOOT State University of New York
Buffalo, U.S.A.
215
Walter ISARD and Panagis LIOSSATOS
Spatial Dynamics and Optimal Space-Time Development Volume 4 in: Studies in Regional Science and Urban Economics, North-Holland, Amsterdam, 1979, xvii + 434 pages, Dfl.55.00 Professor Isard's outstanding contribution to the social sciences is well established and widely recognized by scholars in this field. His intellectual capacity, unceasing perseverance, and strong convictions gave rise to a new field of study - Regional Science. lsard, the fot, nder of the first Regional Science Department in the United States some 25 years ago, should be proud of the distinguished generation of scholars-researchers and practitioners who graduated from his own program as well as from affiliated programs throughout the world. Indeed, these regional scientists can be found today in outstanding learning and research institutions in both the West and the East. Isard's impact upon the development of the regional science field is well documented in the endless list of articles and books which he published. This book, which is volume 4 in the series "Studies in Regional Science and Urban Economics", is a continuation of the manifesto which Professor Isard began advancing some 25 years ago with the first volume in this series--Locatton and Space-Economy. The book represents an expansion and extension of Isard's continuing evolution of thoughts in respect to the dimensions and boundaries of Regional Science. In volume 3: General Theory, Isard attempted to develop a general theory which could encompass the theories of other social science fields related to urban and regional analysis. This volume is an effort to rectify deficiencies found in Volume 3 with the development of an adequate dynamic analysis. It ig :an attempt to formulate the complex social system, as it relates particularly to space in a dynamic analytical framework. Both space and time interact and affect the social system; they affect spatial flow, location of activities, and land-use patterns. Although the book presents only a theoretical construction of the notions of time and space the authors hope that their work will inspire others and facilitate the development of techniques with which regional science problems can be analyzed,
216
Book Reviews
better understood, and eventually even solved. Unfortunately, despite the authors' declared objective, the theoretical models developed in the various chapters throughout the text do not shed much new light on our general understanding of the social system and the impact of public policies on it. The concept of time is treated frequently in the text in a philosophical or metaphysical sense particularly when time-space is discussed in association with the general relativity theory. Dynamic analysis of socio-economic and political systems are not exactly a novelty. Growth models in economics have for quite some time incorporated the dynamics of change over time in the form of technological changes and augmentation of factors of production such as labor and capital. However, the extension of the dynamic analysis to include space as discrete location points, or even as a continuous space, introduces an important new dimension. It is clear that our comprehension and understanding nowadays cannot advance much beyond the simplified two-regions two-sectors (commodities) economic growth models. Therefore, multi-regions multi-commodities production and consumption models in which both space and time are presented are difficult, if not impossible, to construct, comprehend, analyze and understand. Most of the models developed in the text represent primarily a maze of complex mathematical notations, which are quite difficult to follow but, more importantly, may deprive or even alienate the prospective audience. To sum it up then, it is unfortunate that this volume follows in the footsteps of its predecessor, Volume 3, in that it deals with abstract notions and theoretical models, which are difficult to-follow. By making it difficult reading it becomes even less accessible to potential readers. Daniel SCHEFER T,:e Worm Bank Washington, DC, U.S.A. Winfried K. GRASSMANN
Stochastic Systems for Management Elsevier, New York, 1981, xii + 358 pages, $27.95 This book is a feasible solution to the problem of finding an optimal text on the Stochastic aspects
of Operational Research or Management Science for undergraduate students with no background in Probability Theory. Thus the level of mathematics used is kept low and Professor Grassmann stresses concepts rather than mathematical derivations and illustrates the main ideas by numerous examples from business and industry. In meeting his task the author organized the structure of the book in the following way: Chapter 1 is a small introductory chapter which explains the terms random and stochastic in a non-mathematical way and also describes what a system is and why systems are important for making managerial decisions. Chapter 2 concentrates mostly on deterministic systems which are described by providing examples from management problems both for the discrete and the continuous time case. Also the equilibrium and steady-state concepts of the systems are introduced in terms of examples. Chapter 3 under the title "Mathematical Laws of Randomness" is an introductory chapter in probability theory. The concepts of random variables, discrete and continuous, independence, correlation, expectations and variances, are introduced. Chapter 4 with the title "Discrete Stochastic Systems" introduces the basic concepts of Markov chains. With illustrative examples concepts such as, transition matrices, Kolmogoroph equations, limiting behavior are stressed. Chapter 5 dicusses the distributions often encountered in practice apart from the normal distibution, lllustrative examples are given for each distribution. Chapter 6 deals with the normal distribution and the Central Limit Theorem in the same way. Chapter 7 deals with continuous time stochastic processes and in particular with the Poisson process. Illustrative examples stress the basic concepts. Chapter 8 discusses birth-death processes in equilibrium. Some fundamentals of queuing theory are also given such as classification of queuing systems, single server queue, multiserver queues and finally some results on the M / G / I queue. Chapter 9 deals with the expectation of one random variable, functions of several random variables, conditional expectations and other related topics. Chapter 10 discusses the basic ideas of optimization and provides the Newton method. Some important applications of optimization such as optimizing a simple queuing system and some simple cases of inventory control are also discussed. Chapter 11 deals with sequential decisions.