Spatial patterns of Late Quaternary river incision along the northern Tian Shan foreland

Spatial patterns of Late Quaternary river incision along the northern Tian Shan foreland

Journal Pre-proof Spatial patterns of Late Quaternary river incision along the northern Tian Shan foreland Honghua Lu, Dengyun Wu, Huiping Zhang, Yua...

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Journal Pre-proof Spatial patterns of Late Quaternary river incision along the northern Tian Shan foreland

Honghua Lu, Dengyun Wu, Huiping Zhang, Yuanxu Ma, Xiangmin Zheng, Youli Li PII:

S0169-555X(20)30072-6

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.geomorph.2020.107100

Reference:

GEOMOR 107100

To appear in:

Geomorphology

Received date:

5 September 2019

Revised date:

9 February 2020

Accepted date:

16 February 2020

Please cite this article as: H. Lu, D. Wu, H. Zhang, et al., Spatial patterns of Late Quaternary river incision along the northern Tian Shan foreland, Geomorphology(2020), https://doi.org/10.1016/j.geomorph.2020.107100

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© 2020 Published by Elsevier.

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Spatial patterns of Late Quaternary river incision along the northern Tian Shan foreland Honghua Lu 1,2 *, Dengyun Wu 1, Huiping Zhang 3, Yuanxu Ma 4, Xiangmin Zheng 1, Youli Li 5 1

Key Laboratory of Geographic Information Science of Ministry of Education, School of Geographic Sciences, East China Normal University, Shanghai 200241, China

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Institute of Eco-Chongming (IEC), East China Normal University, Shanghai 200062, China

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Institute of Geology, China Earthquake Administration, Beijing 100029, China

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Institute of Remote Sensing and Digital Earth, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100094, China

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Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes of Ministry of Education, Peking University, Beijing 100871, China

12 *Corresponding author. E-mail address: [email protected] (H. Lu)

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Abstract: River-incision rate is widely used to track changes in tectonics or climate over time

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and space. However, the feasibility of utilizing the spatial variations of river incision to

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reconstruct past tectonic and climatic processes remains unclear. Here, we focus on the spatial

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patterns of river incision along the northern Chinese Tian Shan foreland. Three alluvial fans FP,

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FeH, and FlH are determined as the alluvial fan context of river incision and terrace classification

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providing the geomorphological framework across the foreland region. Four rivers (i.e. the Kuitun,

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Jingou, Manas, and Urumqi Rivers from the western, central, and eastern part of the foreland) are

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used to reconstruct the paleogeomorphology from the reference, which is the best-preserved

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terrace of each river system with ages clustering in different parts of the Latest Pleistocene-Early

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Holocene. The depth of incision constrained by the reference terrace of each river is obtained by

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comparing the present-day topography and the reconstructed one. The resulting profile of channel

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incision (depth and rate) of each analyzed river displays an overall decreasing-downstream trend

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from the maximum where the river exits from the mountain range, to zero. Such a trend has been

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attributed to the progressive lowering of the river gradient that was caused by the adjusted ratio of

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sediment input versus water discharge induced by climate change. Superimposing onto the

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decreasing-downstream trend, an obvious step can also easily be observed onto the profile of

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channel incision of each river, downstream of which channel incision is significantly less. The step

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occurs near the thrust fault controlling growth of the outermost anticline through which each river

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cuts, thereby implying the key role of local rock uplift in forming the river-incision step. The

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former observation implies that, at the same timescale, more river incision at the exit from the

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mountain range does not necessarily mean stronger climatic forcing of incision there. We thus

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propose that, in a foreland setting, it should be the temporal pattern of river incision rather than its

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spatial variation that is helpful for unraveling the change in the forcing factor of downcutting.

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Key words: Fluvial terrace; River-incision rate; Spatial pattern; the Tian Shan

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1. Introduction

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River erosion is one of the main surface processes shaping the topography of an active orogenic

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belt (e.g., Burbank and Pinter, 1999; Whipple, 2004; Burbank, 2005; Jolivet et al., 2014; Zhang et

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al., 2014; Bufe et al., 2016). During erosion, river downcutting can form canyons and terrace

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sequences; these fluvial features are commonly used to reconstruct the regional geomorphological

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evolution and reveal its forcing mechanism (e.g., Yang et al., 2015; Bridgland et al., 2017; Stokes

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et al., 2017; Lu et al., 2018a; Nie et al., 2018). River incision has causally been linked with

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changes in tectonic and climatic factors, base level variations, rock strength as well as autogenic

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adjustment of river systems (e.g., Ferrier et al., 2013; Bufe et al., 2017a, 2017b; Malatesta et al.,

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2017, 2018; Stokes et al., 2017; Malatesta and Avouac, 2018). The rate of river incision is often

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calculated using terrace data (i.e. the height of the terrace surface above the present-day riverbed

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and the terrace formation age) and this in turn has been used to quantify tectonic uplift (e.g.,

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Burbank et al., 1996; Leland et al., 1998; Yang and Li, 2011; Pan et al., 2013; Jochems and

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Pederson, 2015; Bufe et al., 2017b; Demoulin et al., 2017) or to unravel the strength of climatic

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forcing of downcutting and its variations (e.g., Hancock and Anderson, 2002; Ferrier et al., 2013;

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Lu et al., 2018a; Nie et al., 2018). In time and space, however, river incision can be a highly

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variable process that may be interrupted when the riverbed aggrades (Burbank and Anderson,

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2012; Yang and Li, 2012; Finnegan et al., 2014). Correspondingly, incision rates derived from

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terrace data possibly depend on the considered spatial and temporal scales. Thus, understanding

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the spatiotemporal variations of river-incision rate is of primary importance for the reconstruction

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of past tectonic and climatic processes.

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Some previous studies (e.g., Howard et al., 1994; Poisson and Avouac, 2004; Malatesta et al.,

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2018) have explored the spatial geometry of incision. At the mountain front of an active orogenic

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belt, the incision geometry has causally been linked with the evolution of the equilibrium gradient

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2004; D'Arcy and Whittaker, 2014; Malatesta and Avouac, 2018; Malatesta et al., 2018). However,

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the feasibility of utilizing the spatial variations of river incision in a foreland setting to track past

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tectonic and climatic processes still requires further investigation. Over similar timescales, can

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differences in river incision between sites along a single river system or several different but

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adjacent river systems be used to differentiate variations in the strength of climatic or tectonic

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forcing on river incision? How is rock uplift from local anticlinal growth recorded by the profile

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of incision (depth and rate) along the course of a river? Can any trend of river incision be observed

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along the range strike? The Tian Shan and its surrounding area provide an excellent natural

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laboratory for exploration of these key questions.

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The modern Tian Shan has been built largely by basinwards thrusting along range-bounding faults

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(Figure 1A) (Avouac et al., 1993; Deng et al., 2000; Lu et al., 2010a, 2015). A series of transverse

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rivers emanating from the high range of the Tian Shan flow across the piedmonts and incise

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deeply into the piedmont sedimentary bedrock strata (Figure 1B). We focus on the northern

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Chinese Tian Shan foreland, where the catchment-fan systems exhibit similar alluvial fan systems

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and canyons with well-developed terrace staircases preserved on both sides. For some of the main

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piedmont rivers, the fluvial terrace sequences have been classified, and their formation ages have

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been numerically dated (e.g., Molnar et al., 1994; Poisson, 2002; Poisson and Avouac, 2004; Yuan

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et al., 2006; Lu et al., 2010b, 2014, 2015, 2017, 2018a; Yang et al., 2013; Gong et al., 2014, 2015;

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Fu et al., 2017; Malatesta et al., 2018; Su et al., 2018). These existing fluvial geomorphological

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studies provide an opportunity for integration with new results from this study to quantify regional

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rates of river incision. This allows further investigation of incision variability along the northern

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Chinese Tian Shan foreland, and in turn, a fuller investigation of the tectonic and climatic drivers

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for the observed patterns.

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In this paper, four rivers, i.e. the Kuitun, Jingou, Manas, and Urumqi Rivers from the western,

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central, and eastern part of the foreland, are studied. Considering the interaction of alluvial fan and

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river terrace archives (Mather et al., 2017) and the potential role of alluvial fan in constructing a

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regional geomorphic framework (Lu et al., 2010b; Harvey et al., 2016), we first determine the

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geomorphologic framework for the foreland region. Then, the inset river terrace sequences

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preserved at the mountain front are classified and described. For each of the studied piedmont

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rivers, a terrace is selected as a reference surface for reconstructing the paleogeomorphology (the

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previous floodplain). The depth of incision is obtained by comparing the present-day topography

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and the reconstructed one and then is combined with the reference terrace age in order to quantify

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the average river incision rate. Finally, we analyze the spatial pattern of river incision (depth and

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rate). The outcomes of this work should be helpful for understanding of the spatial variations of

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river incision across the mountain front of an orogenic belt.

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2. General setting

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2.1.Geologic evolution of the Tian Shan

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The ancestral Tian Shan was formed during the Permian after experiencing two Paleozoic

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accretion events within paleo-Asia (Windley et al., 1990; Sobel et al., 2006). Throughout the

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Mesozoic, the Tian Shan range existed as a mountainous topography (Hendrix et al., 1992), and

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deformation within the range mainly occurred in the Latest Triassic, Latest Jurassic, and Late

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Cretaceous (Hendrix et al., 1992; Dumitru et al., 2001). During the Paleogene, relative tectonic

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stability in the Tian Shan (Bullen et al., 2001, 2003; Sobel et al., 2006) resulted in the beveling of

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topography which is expressed as regional unconformities in the Kyrgyz Tian Shan (Oskin and

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Burbank, 2007) and the Chinese Tian Shan (Windley et al., 1990). In response to the Cenozoic

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India-Asia collision, the Tian Shan has been tectonically reactivated with topographic growth

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encroaching into its marginal foreland basin regions (Zhang et al., 1996; Heermance et al., 2007;

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Lu et al., 2010a, 2015; Thompson et al., 2015, 2017). This reactivation of the range has been

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chronologically constrained to 24±4 Ma by apatite fission track analyses undertaken on

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sedimentary rocks exposed in an anticline of the proximal foreland area of the northern Chinese

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Tian Shan (Hendrix et al., 1994).

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2.2. Tectonics and geomorphology in the foreland

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The continued growth of the Tian Shan range has seen thrust propagation into its foreland, with

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the development of several fold-and-thrust belts (Figure 1A). In the northern Chinese Tian Shan

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foreland, these are referred to as Belts I to III, numbered sequentially outwards from the mountain

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front (Figure 1B). Stratigraphically, the folds in Belt I are composed of Mesozoic- Cenozoic

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sedimentary rocks, whereas those of Belts II and III only consist of Cenozoic strata. The fold

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strata trend approximately EW or W-NW (Figure 1B), implying a N-S crustal shortening. Using

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the top of the Dushanzi Formation (Pliocene) as the reference surface, the total magnitude of

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crustal shortening across the northern Chinese Tian Shan foreland has been estimated to 8-15 km

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(Deng et al., 2000; Lu et al., 2010a), approximately 6-12 % of the total shortening of 125 ± 30 km

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across the orogenic belt at the longitude of Manas (Avouac et al., 1993).

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Most of rivers in the northern Tian Shan piedmont originate from active glaciers in the axial parts

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of the range. Thus, the hydrographs of these piedmont rivers are dominated by summer meltwater

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peaks (Poisson and Avouac, 2004; Liu et al., 2011; Lu et al., 2018a). These north-flowing river

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systems cut through the fold-and-thrust belts in the northern Tian Shan foreland. Here,

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well-preserved river terrace staircases have developed documenting the history of anticline

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deformation (e.g., Molnar et al., 1994; Lu et al., 2019). Undeformed late Quaternary river terraces

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are preserved across the anticlines of the most proximally positioned Belt I, implying that the folds

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are presently tectonically inactive (e.g., Deng et al., 2000; Lu et al., 2018a). In contrast, late

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Quaternary deformation further out into the foreland is concentrated within the anticlines and

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thrust faults of Belts II and III, resulting in faulting and folding of river terraces (e.g., Avouac et al.,

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1993; Molnar et al., 1994; Daëron et al., 2007; Gong et al., 2015; Su et al., 2018; Lu et al., 2019;

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Qiu et al., 2019). Using the river terraces as the reference surfaces, late Quaternary shortening

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rates of Belts II and III have been estimated to be 1-2 mm/yr (Lu et al., 2019). Strong active

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tectonic deformation is further associated with high seismicity along the northern Chinese Tian

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Shan foreland. At least one major history earthquake, the Manas Ms 7.7 earthquake of 23rd

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December 1906, occurred in the central part of the foreland (Lu et al., 2018b). A recent earthquake,

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the Hutubi Ms 6.2 earthquake of the 8th December 2016, occurred in the eastern part of the

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foreland (Lu et al., 2018b).

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2.3. Quaternary climate

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The climate in the Tian Shan range and its foreland regions has experienced a complex history

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controlled by the westerly air masses resulting in semi-arid conditions (Xu et al., 2010). Along the

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north piedmont of the Chinese Tian Shan, the annual precipitation is commonly < 450 mm/yr (Xu

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et al., 2010; Liu et al., 2011). The high-elevation ridges of the Tian Shan are currently dominated

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by glaciation and periglacial processes (Cui et al., 1998). Similarly, the range has been extensively

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and repeatedly glaciated during the late Quaternary, as recorded by multiple moraines (Cui et al.,

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1998; Xu et al., 2010; Malatesta and Avouac, 2018). In the headwaters of the Manas River in the

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northern Chinese Tian Shan, the periods of the Quaternary glaciation have been determined as the

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Hongshanzui stage (MIS 12-16), the Haxionggou stage (MIS 7-9), the Hustai stage (MIS 6), and

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the Wudate stage (MIS 2-4); the latter three stages correspond to the Gaowangfeng stage, the

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Xiawangfeng stage, and the Shangwangfeng stage in the headwaters of the Urumqi River,

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respectively (Xinjiang Institute of Geography, 1986; Zhao et al., 2006; Xu et al., 2010). Large

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volumes of clastic sediments produced by glacial and periglacial processes have thus accumulated

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in the glaciated upper parts of the catchments (Cui et al., 1998), a large amount of which has been

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transported into the foreland basin during the interglacial stages (Molnar et al., 1994; Malatesta

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and Avouac, 2018; Malatesta et al., 2018).

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3. Methods

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This work aims to understand spatial patterns of river-incision rate constrained by a single river

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terrace level across the northern Chinese Tian Shan foreland. The study does not analyze temporal

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patterns of incision rate based on multiple river terrace levels. We calculate the long-term average

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of river-incision rate using the height of the terrace surface above the present-day riverbed (i.e.

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depth of river incision) in combination with the terrace formation age. The age data constraining

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chronologically the formation of the river terraces preserved in the foreland are available now.

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Thus, it is the precondition for the following analysis to determine the depth of river incision and

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its distribution. Here, we obtain river incision depth by comparing the present-day topography and

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the reconstructed paleogeomorphology (the previous floodplain) from the reference terrace

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(geomorphic marker) using the method of Burbank and Anderson (2012). As such, our work

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comprises four components: (i) constructing the fluvial geomorphological framework; (ii)

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determining the reference terrace for each river; (iii) reconstructing the paleogeomorphic surface

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(the paleo-floodplain); (iv) calculating the depth and rates of river incision. Using a combination

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of published fluvial geomorphological research and the spatial distributions of river systems in the

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foreland region, we selected the Kuitun, Jingou, Manas, and the Urumqi Rivers from the western,

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central, and eastern part of the foreland for investigation.

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3.1. Constructing a fluvial geomorphological framework

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A geomorphological framework is a fundamental requirement for understanding the regional

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landscape evolution and its tectonic-climatic forcing mechanisms. This has been undertaken by

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fieldwork spanning 2006 to 2018, during which we have conducted detailed investigations along

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the northern Chinese Tian Shan mountain front. First, we determine episodes of alluvial fan

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development based on our previous work (Lu et al., 2010b) as well as the new data, which are

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used as a geomorphological framework for classification of river terrace. Then, we classify the

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sequence of river terraces preserved at the mountain front of each analyzed river based on the

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following geomorphic characterization: (1) geomorphology of the terrace surface (height above

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the modern riverbed, extent of dissection, and distribution etc.); (2) sedimentology (color,

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thickness, grain size, and roundness etc.) of terrace sediments overlying the bedrock strath; (3)

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sedimentology of loess deposits (if any) covering the terrace surfaces; and (4) geomorphic

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mapping of the fan-terrace landforms and tectonic structures based on the field investigations and

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remote sensing of Google Earth imagery.

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A chronology for the geomorphological framework of the study area was established using

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optically stimulated luminescence (OSL) and electron spin resonance (ESR) dating methods.

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These were applied to fluvial terrace sediments from the Toutun and Hutubi River in the eastern

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part of the foreland adjacent to the river systems analyzed in this work (Figure 2). OSL and ESR

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samples were taken from homogeneous aeolian loess covering the fluvial sediment or interlayers

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of silt, very fine sand or fine sand within the fluvial sediments (Table S1 and Figure S1). When

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sampling, a 20-cm-long, 5-cm-diameter steel pipe with one end covered with opaque material was

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driven into the sampled layer using a plastic hammer. In order to ensure maximal shielding, only

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the middle part of each sample was analyzed in the lab. Following the procedures of Lin et al.

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(2005), preparation and measurements of the ESR samples were carried out in the State Key

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OSL dates were determined in the Institute of Crustal Dynamics of China Earthquake

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Administration according to the procedures of Rees-Jones (1995) and Wang (2006). Throughout

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the broader piedmont region, there are now numerous studies (Tables S2 to S4) that constrain the

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timing of fluvial landscape development. This chronology includes OSL, post-IR infrared

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stimulated luminescence (p-IR IRSL), ESR, AMS radiocarbon (AMS 14C), and cosmogenic

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nuclide (CN 10Be) surface exposure dating data. Collectively, these published regional

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chronological data (Tables S1 to S4; Figure 3) are used to help constrain fluvial landscape

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development within this study. Details (including the sampling information, the lab procedure, etc.)

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on the new and published chronology are documented in the Appendix Data.

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3.2. Determining the reference terrace for each analyzed river

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In this work, we use river terraces as geomorphic markers from which to reconstruct

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paleogeomorphic surfaces. Some previous studies (e.g., Dibiase, 2014; Finnegan et al., 2014) have

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proposed that quantification of bedrock river incision rates from river terrace data exhibit a

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negative power-law dependence on the measured interval over time scales of 104-107 years,

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despite of the controversy over whether such a dependence exists: the exclusion of the modern

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river as a datapoint to calculate the rate of river incision may avoid this bias (Gallen et al., 2015).

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To overcome these uncertainties, the comparison of incision between the different piedmont rivers

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should be made at the same timescale. Thus, the reference terraces used for the reconstruction

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should be numerically dated and most importantly should have similar formation ages. Additional

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criteria should also be considered when choosing a reference terrace for each analyzed river

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system: (1) the terrace should distribute widely along both banks of the river and its surface should

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be flat without obvious erosion since abandonment caused by downcutting; (2) the terrace surface

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should have either no or limited loess cover (< 1 m thickness); (3) terrace surfaces should not be

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covered by alluvial fan or slope deposits. The latter three criteria will ensure no obvious

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modification of the terrace surface morphology used for quantification of incision.

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3.3. Reconstructing the paleogeomorphic surface (paleo-floodplain)

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Firstly, terrace elevation were extracted from the Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission and

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Reflection Radiometer Global Digital Elevation Model (ASTER GDEM) (v1:

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http://www.gscloud.cn) comprising 30 m pixels with ~30 m horizontal accuracy and ~20 m

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vertical accuracy (ASTER GDEM Validation Team, 2009). Secondly, the edge of the reference

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terrace of each river was identified on the DEM, and then the terrace surface was reconstructed by

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interpolation across the river valley. Finally, the reconstructed surface was used as the reference

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for incision quantification. Noting that the quality of the results of this work may be affected by

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the accuracy of the used DEM data (Boulton and Stokes, 2018).

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3.4. Calculating river incision depth and rate

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Based on the elevation difference between the present-day topography and the reconstructed

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reference terrace surface, a map of river incision depth was generated for each river. Using this

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map, the maximum depth of river incision was extracted along the length of the modern riverbed.

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Where each river emerges from the mountain front, we measured the height of the reference

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terrace surface above the modern riverbed using a hand-held TruPulse 200 Laser Rangefinder

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(~30 cm precision) to test the reliability of the DEM derived river incision quantification. The

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long-term average of river incision rate was then calculated through combination of the incision

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depth data with the available geochronology. All calculations were undertaken ArcGIS 10.2. River

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incision rate uncertainties are given based on the errors of the terrace formation ages.

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4. Results

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4.1. Fluvial geomorphological framework in the foreland

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Our previous work (Lu et al., 2010b) has identified four episodes of fan growth in the area

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between the Anjihai and Taxi Rivers (see Figure 2 of Lu et al., 2010b), i.e. the central part of the

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northern Chinese Tian Shan foreland. These fans have been designated F1, F2, F3, and F4,

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occurring sequentially from the hinterland to foreland (progressively younger in abandonment

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age). In this work, we extend the analysis area westwards to the Guertu River and eastwards to the

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Urumqi River, thus collectively covering the whole northern Chinese Tian Shan piedmont (Figure

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1B). The margins of the fans and their catchment areas involved field and remote sensing

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compilation of a new morphologic map (Figure 2). The remains of the innermost fan F1 are

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distributed very locally (Lu et al., 2010b), and are not shown in Figure 2. In contrast, the other

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three fans F2-F4 are widely distributed across the foreland, here referred to as FP, FeH, and FlH,

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respectively (Figure 2).

277 The field investigations revealed that thick aeolian loess deposits mantle the alluvial sediments of

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FP (Figure 4). Gullies cut through the overlying loess exposing the underlying alluvium, revealing

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an undulating FP fan surface (Figure 4). Fans FeH and FlH have no loess cover and lack any

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obvious gully erosion into the fan surface. For each piedmont river, each respective alluvial fan

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has been abandoned due to river incision and is geomorphologically represented as a terrace along

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the course of a given river (Figure 4).

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4.2. Chronological framework of fluvial geomorphology

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Figure 2 illustrates that all of the main river systems in the northern Chinese Tian Shan exhibit

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similar fan systems and incised rivers in the foreland, most likely implying coeval fan

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abandonment and river incision patterns across the foreland (Lu et al., 2010b; Guerit et al., 2017;

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Malatesta et al., 2018). The complied chronology (Figure 3, Tables S2 to S4), including our new

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age data (Table S1) of the abandonment of the fans FlH, FeH, and FP further supports this regional

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abandonment phenomenon (Molnar et al., 1994; Poisson, 2002; Poisson and Avouac, 2004; Yuan

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et al., 2006; Lu et al., 2010b, 2014, 2015, 2017, 2018a; Yang et al., 2013; Gong et al., 2014; Fu et

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al., 2017; Malatesta et al., 2018; Su et al., 2018; this study). According to the OSL, AMS 14C, and

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p-IR IRSL dating data (Table S2), fan FlH is Late Holocene (2-4 ka) in age (Figure 3A). The

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abandonment ages of fan FeH (but developed by different river systems) based on OSL and p-IR

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IRSL dating methods range between 12-16 ka (Figure 3B and Table S3), implying Latest

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Pleistocene-Early Holocene abandonment. Whilst the abandonment ages of fans FlH and FeH

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(Tables S2 to S3) form distinct cluster groups (Figures 3A and B), the dates of fan FP constrained

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by OSL, p-IR IRSL, CN 10Be, and ESR methods (Table S4) are more scattered across different

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piedmont rivers, ranging from hundreds of thousands to tens of thousands of years (Figure 3C).

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These dates could imply that the fan FP contains several periods of fan aggradation and incision.

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Despite the differences, these age data (Figure 3C, Table S4) indicate that fan FP is Middle-Late

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Pleistocene in age.

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4.3. River terrace sequences and reference terraces

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The inset river terrace sequences of the four rivers were mapped within each river independently

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of other. We focus our descriptions below on the river terrace that was used as the reference level

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for subsequent incision rate quantification.

309 The Kuitun River, flowing through the western part of the northern Chinese Tian Shan (Figure 2),

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has formed at least six terrace levels at the mountain front (Poisson and Avouac, 2004; Li et al.,

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2012). These terraces are designated T1 to T6 increasing progressively in height above the modern

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riverbed (Figure 4A). Terrace T4 has the best preserved geomorphic expression and is

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best-preserved on both the east and west banks of the river (Figure 4A). The T4 surface is

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relatively planar despite some minor post-depositional erosion and is positioned some 250 m

316

above the modern riverbed where the river emerges from the range front. The terrace surface also

317

lacks loess cover. Molnar et al. (1994) have ever reported a T4 terrace formation age of ~ 14.3-22

318

ka using cosmogenic nuclide dating (Table S3). Given that their results are relatively scattered and

319

that modelling steps (e.g. production rate values) used to calculate 10Be ages has changed

320

considerably since publication, the dates of Molnar et al. (1994) are omitted from our discussion.

321

Recently, Malatesta et al. (2018) has reported a new age of 13.4 ± 1.6 ka using p-IR IRSL dating

322

(Figure 4A; sample y7 in Figure 2 and Table S3). This age provides a better age constraint for the

323

formation of the Kuitun River terrace T4 to ~ 13 ka.

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Flowing through the western part of the northern Chinese Tian Shan (Figure 2), the Jingou River

326

comprises six terraces (T1 to T6) at the mountain front (Figure 4B). T5 is continuously distributed

327

on both valley sides (Figure 4B), with a flat surface and absence of loess cover. The height of the

328

T5 surface above the present riverbed is ~ 133 m where the river exits from the range front,

329

decreasing to ~ 60 m to the south of the Huoerguos anticline (Belt II). Terrace T5 has been dated to

330

~ 12.6 ± 1.3 ka using the OSL dating method (Lu et al., 2010b) (Figure 4B; sample y11 in Figure

331

2 and Table S3).

332 333

The Manas River flows through the central part of the northern Chinese Tian Shan (Figure 2).

334

When compared to the other river systems in the northern Chinese Tian Shan, the Manas River has

Journal Pre-proof the largest catchment area of ~5100 km2 and the largest annual average discharge. Six terraces (T1

336

to T6) were identified at the mountain front (Figure 4C). Thick loess deposits mantle the terrace

337

gravels of T6. In contrast, the deposits of terrace T5 are not covered by loess, and only a few

338

decimeters of alluvial silt cap the terrace gravels. The surface of terrace T5 is flat without obvious

339

post-depositional erosion. This terrace is continuously distributed along the course of the river,

340

extending northwards to an area that encompasses both the Manas and Tugulu anticlines of Belt II.

341

Where the river exits from the range, the T5 surface stands ~ 150 m above the modern riverbed.

342

Gong et al. (2014) have constrained the T5 formation to 12.4 ± 0.8 ka using OSL (sample y12 in

343

Figure 2 and Table S3). This age is consistent with two other OSL ages of 13.8 ± 0.4 ka and 14.3 ±

344

0.7 ka of Yang et al. (2013) (samples y13 and y14 in Figure 2 and Table S3, respectively).

345

Collectively, these dates suggest a mean formation age of the Manas River T5 terrace to 13.5 ± 0.7

346

ka.

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Located in the eastern part of the northern Chinese Tian Shan (Figure 2), the Urumqi River has

349

nine terrace levels (T1 to T9) at the mountain front (Lu et al., 2014, 2015) (Figure 4D). For the

350

high terraces T5-T9, thick loess sediments cover the terrace deposits (Lu et al., 2016). In contrast,

351

no loess sediment mantles the lower T1-T4 terraces. Among the nine terraces of the Urumqi River

352

at the mountain front, terrace T4 is the best–expressed fluvial feature (Figure 4D). This terrace is

353

continuously distributed on both the east and west banks of the river, and its surface is very planar

354

and easily recognized in the field (Figure 4D). The T4 surface is positioned nearly 60 m above the

355

modern riverbed where the river exits from the range front. The T4 has not been dated. As shown

356

above, the extensive incision during Latest Pleistocene-Early Holocene along the northern Chinese

357

Tian Shan foreland has resulted in abandonment of the fan FeH and thus the formation of a ~ 12-ka

358

terrace (Figures 2 and 3, Table S3). Considering the large spatial extent of the Urumqi River T4

359

terrace and its similarity to other terraces dated to 12-ka along other river systems (Figures 2 and

360

4), we tentatively estimate the formation of terrace T4 to 12 ka, noting a need for future numerical

361

dating.

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Lithologically, the straths of the terraces preserved in the northern Chinese Tian Shan foreland are

364

spatially different. Within the anticlines in the foreland, the terraces of the four rivers are beveled

Journal Pre-proof into the underlying Mesozoic and Paleogene-Neogene sedimentary strata (Figure 5). In the areas

366

between these anticlines (i.e. synclines), most of the terraces are beveled into the Early-Middle

367

Pleistocene conglomerates (Figure 6). These erosional bedrock surfaces are clearly exposed along

368

both the western and eastern valley sides of each river (Figures 5 and 6), with the height above the

369

riverbed progressively decreasing downstream. The straths are covered with a continuous layer of

370

blackish gray gravels with a variable thickness (commonly several meters to >10 m), that is in turn

371

variably capped by silt sediments (if any) (Figures 5 and 6). These observations suggest that most

372

of the terraces preserved at the mountain front of the four rivers (Figure 4) can be defined as

373

bedrock strath terraces.

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Following the reference terrace selection criteria (section 3.2), terrace T4 of the Kuitun River,

376

terrace T5 of the Jingou River, terrace T5 of the Manas River, and terrace T4 of the Urumqi River

377

were selected as the reference levels for paleogeomorphologic surface (the paleo-floodplain)

378

reconstruction. As outlined in section 4.1, alluvial fans FlH, FeH, and FP have been abandoned by

379

river incision and now are geomorphologically expressed as the main terraces along the courses of

380

the rivers; the surfaces of these terraces correspond laterally to or grade downstream into the

381

surfaces of these alluvial fans (Figures 2 and 4). South of the deformation front, for example, the

382

reference terrace of each analyzed river (i.e. terrace T4 of the Kuitun River, terrace T5 of the

383

Jingou River, terrace T5 of the Manas River, and terrace T4 of the Urumqi River) narrows on both

384

sides of the river valley (Figures 2 and 4). After leaving the outermost structures through which

385

the rivers cut, its surface grades downstream merging into the surface of the fan FeH (Figures 2 and

386

4).

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4.4. Incision quantification using the reference terraces

389

By comparing the present-day topography (Figures 7A, 8A, 9A, and 10A) and the reconstructed

390

one (Figures 7B, 8B, 9B, and 10B), a map of river-incision depth can be obtained (Figures 7C, 8C,

391

9C, and 10C); this map is then used to extract the depth of river incision constrained by the

392

reference terrace. Where each river exits from the mountains, river incision depth varies from 250

393

m (Kuitun River), 133 m (Jingou River), 150 m (Manas River), and 53 m (Urumqi River) (Figure

394

11A), and these were considered to be consistent with the TruPulse hand levelled measurements

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taken in the field. Combination of the incision amount with the age of a given reference terrace

396

level allowed an incision rate to be calculated (Figure 11B). Maximum rates were recorded where

397

each river exits from the range front, varying from 18.7 ± 2.2 mm/yr (Kuitun River), 10.5 ± 1.1

398

mm/yr (Jingou River), 11.1 ± 0.5 mm/yr (Manas River), and 4.4 ± 0.8 mm/yr (Urumqi River),

399

(Figure 11B).

400 Three spatial patterns of river incision in the northern Chinese Tian Shan foreland can be observed.

402

Overall, river incision (depth and rate) in the northern Chinese Tian Shan foreland displays a

403

decreasing-downstream trend from the maximum where the river exits from the high mountain to

404

zero (Figures 7 to 11). Superimposed onto this downstream decreasing trend, an obvious step in

405

river-incision can easily be observed on each river (Figures 7C, 8C, 9C, 10C, and 11A). South of

406

the outermost anticline through which each river cuts, the river incises a deep valley (Figures 7C,

407

8C, 9C, and 10C) and the gradient of river incision is gentle (Figure 11A). Downstream of the

408

structure, however, the river valley is markedly less deep (Figures 7C, 8C, 9C, and 10C) and the

409

gradient is noticeably steeper (Figure 11A). The incision rate thus co-varies with the depth of river

410

incision (Figure 11B). A third spatial pattern is the contrast in incision pattern along the range

411

front where greater channel incision seems to occur on the rivers in the western part of the

412

foreland (Figure 11).

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5. Discussion

415

Before analyzing the controlling factors of the observed spatial patterns of river incision, we first

416

revisit the climate during late Quaternary in the Tian Shan and its role in controlling regional river

417

incision across the north piedmont of the range.

418 419 420

5.1.Latest Pleistocene-Early Holocene climate in the Tian Shan and its surrounding area

421

Three main episodes of fan growth have been identified in the northern Chinese Tian Shan

422

foreland (Figures 2 and 3; section 4.1). For each piedmont river, these alluvial fans have been

423

abandoned due to river incision. The overview of the palaeoclimatic conditions during Late

424

Quaternary in the Tian Shan and its surrounding area can provide insights into the incision and fan

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abandonment. Pleistocene climate-change in the Tian Shan has been studied by Malatesta et al.

426

(2018). Here we pay close attention to the climate during Latest Pleistocene-Early Holocene due

427

to the 12-16 ka timing of the reference terrace levels and their association with the abandonment

428

of the FeH alluvial fan.

429 Despite the current semi-arid climate, a relatively warm-wet climate during the Latest

431

Pleistocene-Early Holocene has been proposed based on sedimentologic, environmental magnetic,

432

and geochemical records of lake sediments and aeolian loess in the Tian Shan (Li et al., 2011; Lu

433

et al., 2016) and broader region (Tarim Basin: Luo et al., 2007; Tibetan Plateau: An et al., 2012).

434

In the southern Chaiwopu Basin along the northern Chinese Tian Shan foreland, reduced sand

435

content, supply of finer grained sediment, and lower magnetic susceptibility (χlf) values of the

436

aeolian loess sediments (Figure 12B) reveal a gradual transition from cold-dry to relatively

437

warm-wet climate during Latest Pleistocene- Early Holocene (Lu et al., 2016). A similar

438

palaeoclimatic situation has been documented from loess deposits of the Ili Basin of the central

439

Chinese Tian Shan, where sand content indicates a dominance of a cold-dry climate before 11 ka

440

(Li et al., 2011). Post 11 ka, the intensity of aridity and coldness became weakened, recorded by a

441

reducing sand fraction, despite several fluctuations (Li et al., 2011). This paleoclimatic history

442

within the Tian Shan range has also been documented by other paleoclimatic records from its

443

surrounding area (e.g., Luo et al., 2007; An et al., 2012). In the northeastern Tibetan Plateau, the

444

Asian summer monsoon index (SMI) of Lake Qinghai sediments significantly increases to a

445

relatively high value at around 12 ka and remains relatively stable despite minor fluctuations

446

(Figure 12C), implying a relatively humid climate over the past 12 kyr (An et al., 2012). A similar

447

palaeoclimatic situation is revealed by a decreasing lake carbonate content during the past 13 kyr

448

from sediments of the Lop Nor in the eastern Tarim Basin, located to the southeast of the Chinese

449

Tian Shan (Figure 12D) (Luo et al., 2007).

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5.2.Climatically controlled regional river incision and its downstream decrease

452

In response to climate transition (section 5.1) from a cold-dry to a relatively warm-wet climate

453

during Latest Pleistocene-Early Holocene, the consequent hydrological changes will likely play

454

some role in driving the incision patterns, i.e. the downstream decrease of river incision (depth and

Journal Pre-proof rate) from the range front (maximum) out into the foreland basin (zero) (Figure 11). This geometry

456

has been considered by several previous studies (e.g., Poisson and Avouac, 2004; Lu et al., 2018a;

457

Malatesta et al., 2018). Climate variations can change the ratio of sediment load (Qs) versus water

458

fluxes (Qw) (e.g., Yang and Li, 2012; Malatesta et al., 2018). During the stadials (cold-dry climate),

459

large volumes of glacial and periglacial sediments accumulate in the upstream glaciated areas.

460

Periodic release of these deposits into the mountain front region results in alluvial fan

461

development during the cold-dry to warm-wet climate transition. The increasing sediment flux

462

(the higher ratio of Qs/Qw) will be expected to cause continuous aggradation and thus steepening

463

of the fans (Poisson and Avouac, 2004; Malatesta et al., 2018). After depletion of the upstream

464

source of clastic deposits, river incision becomes dominant leading to alluvial fan abandonment

465

due to reduced sediment input from the catchment (the lower ratio of Qs/Qw) (Malatesta et al.,

466

2018). Such a response to periodic climate changes will finally cause adjustment of a river’s

467

gradient to a decreased slope (e.g., Lu et al., 2018a; Malatesta et al., 2018), and formation of a

468

younger terrace with a gentler topographic gradient when the active floodplain is abandoned as a

469

terrace (e.g., Poisson and Avouac, 2004; Lu et al., 2018a). As a result, river incision constrained

470

by the terrace and the present riverbed is expected to display a trend of downstream decrease, as is

471

seen along the northern Chinese Tian Shan foreland (Figures 7-11).

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Tectonics may have also contributed to the observed river incision patterns. However, this can be

474

ruled out, when considering the late Quaternary activity of the anticlines in Belts I to III of the

475

foreland. Previous studies have shown that the anticlines of the most proximal structure (Belt I) in

476

the northern Chinese Tian Shan foreland have been tectonically inactive, based on the presence of

477

un-deformed late Quaternary river terraces (e.g., Deng et al., 2000; Lu et al., 2010a, 2018a). In

478

contrast, significant uplift and crustal shortening during the late Quaternary has occurred on the

479

anticlines in the more distal structures (Belts II and III) (e.g., Avouac et al., 1993; Molnar et al.,

480

1994; Yang et al., 2013; Fu et al., 2017; Lu et al., 2019) (Figure 13). Late Quaternary rock uplift of

481

the anticlines in Belts II and III has been estimated to be tens of meters based on fluvial

482

geomorphological investigations (e.g., Molar et al., 1994; Yang et al., 1995; Yang and Deng, 1998;

483

Deng et al., 2000) (Figure 13). Such a tectonic configuration must have contributed to incision

484

south of these structures in the foreland (as discussed in section 5.3), but it is unlikely to be

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responsible for the observed downstream decreasing incision trend across the foreland. A similar

486

scenario comes from the Qilian Shan range front which possesses similar geomorphological and

487

tectonic contexts. Here, the riverbed and the main terrace profiles converge downstream, implying

488

a progressive lowering of river gradient (Hetzel et al., 2006). This lowering has been attributed to

489

rapid Holocene river incision caused by climate change rather than rock uplift linked with regional

490

tectonic activation (Hetzel et al., 2006).

491 Although climate may have caused the observed incision pattern across the northern Chinese Tian

493

Shan foreland (e.g., Lu et al., 2018a; Malatesta et al., 2018) (Figure 11), care should be taken

494

when using the rate of river incision to track the past changes in tectonics and climate across the

495

mountain front of an orogenic belt. Here, we propose a conceptual model to illustrate this issue

496

(Figure 14). As discussed above, lowering of a river gradient linked to climate change will result

497

in a downstream decrease of river-incision depth (also rate) constrained by some terraces. Thus,

498

the difference in the depth and rate of river incision observed at two sites (e.g. sites a and b of

499

Figure 14) does not have any specific significance; i.e. more river incision at site ‘a’ does not

500

necessarily mean stronger climatic forcing relative to site ‘b’. Instead, the temporal variations of

501

river incision should provide better insight for unraveling the strength of climate or tectonic

502

driving factors and its variations. The enhanced river incision since formation of a terrace (e.g.

503

terrace T2 of River A in Figure 14, corresponding in time to terrace Tb of River B) must imply a

504

significant change in a forcing factor (i.e. climate and/or tectonics). Thus, enhanced synchronous

505

river-incision across the foreland (such as an increasing river-incision rate observed at sites a-d in

506

Figure 14) means that local tectonic uplift can be excluded as a forcing mechanism for regional

507

downcutting. In a setting like the northern Chinese Tian Shan foreland, the temporal pattern of

508

river incision can provide greater insight into changes in the strength of the forcing factor

509

responsible for the downcutting.

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5.3. Steps of river incision caused by local rock uplift

512

Superimposed onto the downstream decrease in incision pattern are localized steps of elevated

513

river-incision (Figures 7C, 8C, 9C, 10C, and 11A). Similar to these steps, knickpoints can also be

514

readily observed along the channel long profiles created by topographic swath profiling (10 km

Journal Pre-proof 515

wide) (Figure 15). For the Kuitun River, the gradient upstream of the outermost anticline (i.e. the

516

Dushanzi anticline of Belt III) is ~1.3%, whereas the downstream gradient is ~2.1% (Figure 15A).

517

Similar changes in stream gradient are also observed on the channel profiles of the other three

518

rivers (Figures 15B to D).

519 Rock strength has been considered as an important factor controlling river incision and thus

521

terrace formation (Stokes et al., 2017). However, in this study the bedrock lithology is not

522

regarded as a key factor for knickpoint formation in the riverbed profiles (Figures 11 and 15). This

523

is because the EW-trending strata that forms the anticlines are dominated by Paleogene-Neogene

524

fluvial-lacustrine mudstone and sandstone offering relatively uniform resistance to erosion

525

(Figures 1B and 5) (Sun et al., 2004; Charreau et al., 2009; Lu et al., 2010a, 2015). The profile

526

steps / channel knickpoints coincide approximately with the locations of the thrust faults that are

527

controlling the growth of the outermost anticlines through which the rivers cut (Figures 11 and 15).

528

The faulted and folded river terraces across the anticlines have revealed that the outermost

529

anticlines have experienced significant rock uplift during Late Pleistocene (e.g., Molar et al., 1994;

530

Yang et al., 1995) (Figure 13), and a maximum uplift of up to 140 m occurs in the Dushanzi

531

anticline through which the Kuitun River cuts (Figure 13A) (Molnar et al., 1994). The Holocene

532

rock uplift of these structures has been estimated to be tens of meters (Figure 13B) (Yang et al.,

533

1995; Yang and Deng, 1998; Deng et al., 2000). Rock uplift caused by thrusting and folding must

534

have led to a base level lowering and thus greater channel incision to the south of these structures

535

(e.g., Holbrook and Schumm, 1999). This locally enhanced channel incision has thus changed the

536

overall downstream decreasing trend of channel incision by forming marked steps / knickpoints in

537

the channel incision patterns (Figure 11).

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5.4. Incision contrasts along the range front

540

There is a possible incision contrast pattern that can be observed on the analyzed piedmont rivers

541

in the northern Chinese Tian Shan foreland (Figure 11). Where the Kuitun River exits from the

542

range front, the depth of river incision is constrained by the reference terrace T4, and is up to 250

543

m, much deeper than the other rivers (Figure 11A). As for the rates of river incision, the along

544

strike pattern seems to reveal a 4-fold easterly decrease in the mean incision rate where the river

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exits from the range front, i.e. from ~20 mm/yr in the west (Kuitun River) to ~5 mm/y in the east

546

(Urumqi River). However, the Jingou and Manas Rivers display comparable incision values in the

547

foreland over the past 13 kyr (Figure 11). This observation means that any east-west pattern

548

change of river incision shows potential but requires further investigation to be clear.

549

6. Conclusions

551

The piedmont river systems in the northern Chinese Tian Shan foreland have incised deeply into

552

their underlying Quaternary alluvial units and Mesozoic / Paleogene-Neogene bedrock, creating

553

well-developed river terrace landform levels. In this work, we have focused on the spatial

554

variations of river incision (depth and rate) at the mountain front of the northern Chinese Tian

555

Shan. For the four rivers from the western, central, and eastern parts of the foreland, we have

556

obtained the depth and rates of river incision by reconstruction of the paleogeomorphology from

557

reference terraces that have formed during the Latest Pleistocene-Early Holocene. Several spatial

558

variations can be observed on the profile of channel incision (depth and rates) of each river

559

constrained by its reference terrace. Each river displays a clear trend of channel incision that

560

decreases downstream from a maximum where the river exits from the range front to zero out in

561

the foreland. Such a downstream trend is attributed to hydrological changes (adjusting the ratio of

562

sediment input Qs versus water discharge Qw) induced by climate variations during the late

563

Quaternary. An obvious step in incision superimposes onto the overall downstream-decreasing

564

trend of channel incision of each river. This step (knickpoint) occurs near to the thrust fault

565

controlling growth of the outermost anticline through which the river cuts. This observation

566

suggests an important role of tectonics for driving localised river-incision steps. Furthermore, an

567

along range front-strike pattern of incision seems to reveal a 4-fold easterly decrease in the mean

568

incision rate where the river exits from the range, i.e. from ~20 mm/yr in the west to ~5 mm/y in

569

the east, although this pattern warrants further investigation. Collectively, our results suggest that,

570

at the same timescale, greater river incision at the outlet from a mountain range does not

571

necessarily mean stronger climatic or tectonic forcing of incision. In foreland settings, attempts

572

should be made to unravel the strength of the incision forcing factors using temporal patterns of

573

river incision rather than spatial variations alone.

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Acknowledgements

576

This study is financially supported by the Natural Science Foundation of China (Grants 41771013,

577

41371031 and 41001002). All the data of this paper have been provided in the document

578

“Appendix Data.docx” uploaded online that readers can find and access. We are grateful to

579

Binjing Li, Zhen Wang, Lu Cheng, Tianqi Zhang, and Supei Si for their field assistance. Dr.

580

Junxiang Zhao at Institute of Crustal Dynamics of China Earthquake Administration and Jianping

581

Li at Institute of Geology of China Earthquake Administration are greatly appreciated for their

582

helps on the OSL and ESR dating. We thank Professor Song Yougui at the Institute of Earth

583

Environment, Chinese Academy of Sciences for providing the data of the Asian summer monsoon

584

index of the Lake Qinghai sediments. Professor Burbank D.W. at University of California Santa

585

Barbara is especially appreciated for his thoughtful comments, suggestions, and help with the

586

English on the earlier version of the manuscript. Alberto Gomes, an anonymous reviewer, and the

587

editor Martin Stokes are greatly appreciated for their constructive comments and suggestions on

588

the manuscript, which resulted in its considerable improvement.

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Figure 1. (A) Map showing the topographic and tectonic pattern of the Tibetan Plateau and surrounding area. The “CB” and “LN” circles mark locations of two paleoclimatic studies (Figures 12B and D, respectively). CB = Chaiwopu Basin, LN= Lop Nor. (B) Stratigraphy, tectonics, and river systems in the northern Chinese Tian Shan range and its foreland, based on the 1:1, 500, 000 Chinese geological map. (C) Geological section showing the general tectonic setting (modified from Lu et al., 2010a). JFTF = Junggar Frontal Thrust Fault. Belt I: TST = Tuostai anticline, NAJH = NanAnjihai anticline, NMNS = NanManas anticline; Belt II: HEGS = Huoerguos anticline, MNS = Manas anticline, TGL = Tugulu anticline; Belt III: DSZ = Dushanzi anticline, HLAD = Halaande anticline; AJH = Anjihai anticline; SA = Saerqiaoke anticline; XH = Xihu anticline.

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Figure 2. The three main episodes of alluvial fan growth in the northern Chinese Tian Shan foreland. Fans are designated FlH (Late Holocene fans), FeH (Latest Pleistocene-Early Holocene fans), and FP (Middle-Late Pleistocene fans). Locations of literature derived dating of abandonment ages are shown by magenta, white, and blue labels. “a”, “y”, and “o” are used to distinguish the map codes of these samples (Tables S2, S3, and S4). Figure 3. Dates used to constrain the abandonment ages of fans FlH (A), FeH (B), and FP (C) by optically stimulated luminescence (OSL), AMS radio carbon (AMS 14C), post-IR infrared stimulated luminescence (p-IR IRSL), electron spin resonance (ESR), and cosmogenic nuclide (10Be) surface exposure dating methods. See Tables S2, S3, and S4 for detail.

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Figure captions:

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Figure 4. Fluvial terraces and their distributions at the mountain front of the Kuitun River (A), the Jingou River (B), the Manas River (C), and the Urumqi River (D). Age data on the formation age of the reference terraces can be found in Tables S2 and S3. Figure 5. Field photos showing planated bedrock surfaces that are clearly exposed on the sides of the rivers within the anticlines. The sequence comprises a Paleogene-Neogene mudstone and sandstone sequence overlain by blackish gray terrace gravels of variable thickness. Figure 6. Field photos showing planated bedrock surfaces that are clearly exposed on the sides of the rivers between the anticlines of the various structure belts (I-III). Here, early Quaternary conglomerates are capped by blackish gray terrace gravels of variable thickness. Figure 7. The present-day topography at the mountain front of the Kuitun River (A), the paleogeomorphology (the previous floodplain) (B) reconstructed from the reference terrace (T4), and the elevation difference between them (C). The formation age of the reference terrace T4 is

Journal Pre-proof dated to 13.4 ± 1.6 ka by post-IR infrared stimulated luminescence dating (Malatesta et al., 2018). The value (250 m) alongside the yellow star is the maximum river incision constrained by the reference terrace T4. Figure 8. The present-day topography at the mountain front of the Jingou River (A), the paleogeomorphology (the previous floodplain) (B) reconstructed from the reference terrace (T5), and the elevation difference between them (C). The formation age of the reference terrace T5 has been dated to 12.6 ± 1.3 ka by OSL dating method (Lu et al., 2010b). The value (133 m) alongside the yellow star is the maximum river incision constrained by the reference terrace T5.

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Figure 9. The present-day topography at the mountain front of the Manas River (A), the paleogeomorphology (the previous floodplain) (B) reconstructed from the reference terrace (T5), and the elevation difference between them (C). The formation age of the reference terrace T5 is estimated to 13.5 ± 0.7 ka from the OSL dates of Yang et al. (2013) and Gong et al. (2014). The value (150 m) alongside the yellow star is the maximum river incision constrained by the reference terrace T5.

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Figure 10. The present-day topography at the mountain front of the Urumqi River (A), the paleogeomorphology (the previous floodplain) (B) reconstructed from the reference terrace (T4), and the elevation difference between them (C). The formation age of the reference terrace T4 is estimated to about 12 ka based on its similarity with the 12 ka terraces of the other rivers. The value (53 m) alongside the yellow star is the maximum river incision constrained by the reference terrace T4.

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Figure 11. (A) The depth of river incision since formation of the reference terrace extracted from the map of river-incision depth (Figures 7C, 8C, 9C, and 10C). (B) The rates of river incision of the four rivers that are calculated using the depth of river incision (A) and the formation age of the reference terrace (errors of the rates are estimated from the age error). The data used in this figure are shown in Tables S5-S8. The arrows denote the steps / knickpoints of river incision (the depth and rate).

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Figure 12. Paleoclimatic records from the Tian Shan and its surrounding area. (A) The deep-sea oxygen-isotope record (Lisiecki and Raymo, 2005). (B) Grain size and magnetic susceptibility (χlf) of the Urumqi River loess sediments in the southern Chaiwopu Basin (CB), northern Chinese Tian Shan foreland (Lu et al., 2016). (C) Asian summer monsoon index (SMI) of Lake Qinghai (QHL) sediments (northeastern Tibetan Plateau) (An et al., 2012). (D) Carbonate content from Lop Nor (LN) in the easternmost part of the Tarim Basin (northwestern China) (Luo et al., 2007). The arrows show the trends of the palaeoclimatic variation. Figure 13. Estimates of anticline uplift in the northern Chinese Tian Shan foreland during the Late Pleistocene (A) and the Holocene (B). Anticlines (gray color) have been proposed as inactive structures during the late Quaternary, and thus no estimate of rock uplift is given on these structures. Anticlines (white color), have no estimate of rock uplift, although they are tectonically active during the late Quaternary. Anticline names and published studies:: the Dushanzi anticline

Journal Pre-proof (DSZ)-Molnar et al. (1994); Yang and Deng (1998); the Halaande anticline (HLAD)-Fu et al. (2017); the Anjihai anticline (AJH)-Deng et al. (2000); the Huoerguos anticline (HEGS)-Deng et al. (2000); the Manas anticline (MNS)-Yang et al. (1995); the Tugulu anticline (TGL)-Yang et al. (1995). See Figure 1B for the full name of the abbreviation of the other anticlines.

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Figure 14. Conceptual model showing possible spatial and temporal patterns of river incision at the mountain front of an active orogenic belt. Since abandonment of an alluvial fan owing to river incision, River A has formed three terraces, i.e. terraces T1-T3 increasing progressively in height above the riverbed, correlating in time with terraces Ta-Tc of River B, respectively. For these piedmont rivers, the depth and rate of river incision that is constrained by the terraces will be expected to decrease downstream (see inset diagrams). Since formation of terrace T2/Tb, river incision has been significantly enhanced, implying a change in the forcing mechanism (climatic or tectonic). See text for detail.

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Figure 15. Topographic swath profiles (10 km wide: locations in Figure 1B) of the four rivers showing the slope of the riverbed and the elevation differences between the outlet of the river and the locations where river incision equals zero. JFTF = Junggar Frontal Thrust Fault. Yellow stars mark the knickpoint positions on the channel profiles.

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Declaration of interests

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☒ The authors declare that they have no known competing financial interests or personal

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relationships that could have appeared to influence the work reported in this paper.

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All the authors have no interests to declare.

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☐The authors declare the following financial interests/personal relationships which

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may be considered as potential competing interests:

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Graphical abstract

Highlights: The paleogeomorphology in the foreland is reconstructed from the reference terrace. The profile of channel incision displays an overall decreasing-downstream trend. An obvious step superimposes onto the downstream-decreasing trend of incision. A possible 4-fold easterly decrease in the mean incision rate is observed. The temporal pattern of river incision is more helpful for unraveling its mechanism.