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Statistical picture of change in British society
Arews
values, interests, forecasts and realisation, and partly to assist in the identification of the most useful techniques for linking technical with social considerations. In developing methods of technology assessment the programme will be able to build on earlier work in the Unit on human life and safety in relation to technical change. This project, which is also supported by the SSRC, and led by T. C. Sinclair, has attempted to measure the deleterious costs to human beings of various existing technologies, and the costs and effectiveness of control and prevention methods designed to reduce the risks associated with these technologies. In principle
83
the methodology can be extended to cover all forms of damage to human beings and their environment, and can also be extended to cover potential hazards and future technologies. The programme will start in October 1971 and posts have been advertised since February. Preparatory work will be carried out during the Spring and Summer with the aid of a grant from ICI. This will include both bibliographical work and a small international meeting to discuss the programme. Interested individuals or groups should contact either the Secretary of the Thirty Years Committee, Mr Peter Healey, or the Director of the Science Policy Research Unit.
Statistical picture of change in British society The first issue of Social Trends was published in December of last year. It has been developed by the British Central Statistical Office as an annual publication to satisfy the need for a single statistical volume covering the whole social scene rather than individual aspects of it. It does this by bringing together a comprehensive but highly selective collection of key statistical series to highlight the major wends in society and in social policy; and it presents them with colour charts and diagrams--in a way that will be easily assimilable by the lay reader. In addition there are a number of articles dealing with individual topics in greater depth. The publication of Social Trends represents a major new effort in this country to provide a rounded statistical picture of the pattern of changes in our society as a whole and is an important new development for the CSO. It might be regarded as the first step, albeit at present in an incomplete and relatively unsophisticated way, to show a measure of the quality of life. Apart from the charts and tables there are four main articles in this issue.
In "The growth of the population to the end of the century", Jean Thompson of the Office of Population Censuses and Surveys states that the growth of population is fundamental to any study of the development of society and current projections are for a growth in the population of the U K from 55½ million in 1969 to 66½ million by the year 2001. Professor Brian Abel Smith, Professor of Social Administration at the London School of Economics and Political Science, traces the growth of public expenditure on social services through the period 1951-68 discussing the definitions and classifications used and the reasons--social, demographic and political for these increases. In an article that forecasts the effective demand for housing in Great Britain in the 1970's, A. E. Holmans of the Department of the Environment concludes that the effective demand for new houses in 1981 will be between 345 and 390 thousand a year and that the total stock of dwellings will have risen to 21 million (from 18½ million in 1969). The total number of household units (including non-person households)
FUTURES
March t97t 6
84
News
in 1981 is forecast at 19.7 million. A fourth article by Professor C. A. Moser, Director of the Central Statistical Office, discusses some of the general developments taking place at present in social statistics. In particular, he deals with the formation of the Office of Population Censuses and Surveys and the new general household survey; and the work going on in the CSO to try to fit social statistics into a coherent framework and to induce from the mass of figures which are and will become available, a relatively small number of 'social indicators' to summarise, in much the same way as do economic indicators, our progress in attaining social goals. " T h e r e is a generally felt need," says Moser, "for standardised and universally agreed ways of analysing the present large and confusing array of descriptive data so as to arrive at a new set of derived quantities (indicators) which are somehow comprehensively representative of the state of society." T h e difficulties, as he sees them, have arisen in trying to determine what fundamental aspects of society we are trying to isolate and how they might be quantitatively defined. " T h e components of a good or happy life are as immeasurable as the two adjectives good and happy and it is here that the problem ceases to be purely statistical and requires the contributions of social administrators, social scientists, etc." At the Central Statistical Office, work is being carried out in three types of social indicators in a given field; on informative indicators (describing partitular conditions), evaluative indicators (relating to particular policy programmes) and preditive indicators. Here are some of the pointers that emerge from a glance through the charts and tables of Social Trends. • Life expectation has increased to about 69 and 75 years for men and women respectively compared to 48 and 52 years at the beginning of the century.
• Nearly one third of the total United Kingdom population is now concentrated in South East England. • T h e emission of smoke into the atmosphere was more than halved between 1951 and 1968; but the emission of sulphur dioxide increased between 1951 and 1961 and has not changed significantly since. • Deaths from tuberculosis have fallen dramatically over the last twenty years but bronchitis and pneumonia still take a heavy toll. T h e incidence of lung cancer and heart diseases has risen sharply and they account for over half of all deaths among men aged between 45 and 64. • Since 1954 there has been a sharp decrease in the average length of stay in hospitals and the n u m b e r of inpatients treated annually has increased by nearly a half despite a decline in the average n u m b e r of beds occupied. • Only about one in seven births now take place at home, less than half the proportion in 1961. • Real personal disposable income per head, a measure of the real purchasing power of a person, rose by over half between 1951 and 1969. • During this time, the real purchasing power of retirement pensions went up by a broadly similar a m o u n t and was drawn by over 7 million people in 1969 compared to just over 4 million in 1951. e 5 ~ million holidays were taken abroad in 1969 compared to 1½ million in 1951. In 1970 nearly half of all manual workers had a basic holiday of 3 weeks or more compared to only 15% in 1969. • 39% of all married women in Great Britain now go out to work compared to 26% in 1951. • Despite a rise in the n u m b e r of pupils in schools in Great Britain from 6.9 million to 9.4 million between 1951 and 1969, the average n u m b e r of pupils per teacher (in public sector schools) was reduced during this period. • In 1968/69, 21% of pupils leaving school in England and Wales went on
FUTURES
March 197t
Atews
to further full-time education in universifies, colleges of education, etc, compared to only 14% in 1960/61. • 49% of dwellings in Great Britain were owner-occupied in 1969 compared to 29% in 1950. During this period dwellings rented from private owners fell by more than a half to a level of 16% of the total stock of dwellings. Between 1961 and 1969 the average price of new dwellings mort-
gaged with building societies by private owners rose by 71%. • The number of indictable offences known, per thousand population, more than doubled between 1951 and 1968. The number of persons convicted in Great Britain of offences involving dangerous drugs rose from about 4 500 in 1967 to nearly 7 000 in 1969. Social Trends, No. 1, is published by HMSO, London, price £3.25.
International social forecasting institute in Rome Since Mankind 2000 accepted an offer of office facilities in Rome, attention of the international futures 'invisible college' has been focused on the relatively new organisation which offered this facility. This is the Institute of Applied Research Documentation and Study (Istituto Ricerche Applicate Documentazione e Studi). IRADES is a non-profit independent organisation whose research and activities are directed to all whose cultural interests are future-oriented. The principle purpose of its studies is to consider the future of man in his social environment; and to this end it seeks: • systematic knowledge of modern Italian society through comprehensive exploration of emerging trends; • to promote and carry out a programme of forecasting research in co-operation with Italian and international centres and experts; • to supply the results of its studies to all decision-makers in social, economic, political and managing fields. The working method of the institute is essentially interdisciplinary. Not only does IRADES take advantage of the advice of experts in various fields, but it also incorporates in-house study eentres and sections for documentation and information statistics, applied social research, planning and organisa-
FUTURES
March 1971
tion, publications, courses and meetings and feedback. The interests chosen by the institute centre on the family, contemporary culture, mass media, technology, political management and industrial management. Work at IRADES started during the second half of 1968 and the Institute is expected to be fully operational for 1972. First accomplishments include the building up of a library and the first stage of a data bank on social forecasting. Two studies have been carried out on the future position of man and his family in tomorrow's society and on the purpose of explaining historical forecasting. Among IRADES publications to date is Documentation 1970, which takes the form of a futures year book; this is currently being revised and translated into English. IRADES is also carrying out experiments with systematising an ongoing bibliography of futures information along the lines suggested in the Kyoto paper of Stephan Schwarz, Research Institute of Swedish National Defence. And the Institute is preparing the pilot copy of a Bulletin of social forecasting that is planned for regular publication. IRA.DES' address is Via Paisiello 6, 00198, Roma, Italy.
85
values, interests, forecasts and realisation, and partly to assist in the identification of the most useful techniques for linking technical with social considerations. In developing methods of technology assessment the programme will be able to build on earlier work in the Unit on human life and safety in relation to technical change. This project, which is also supported by the SSRC, and led by T. C. Sinclair, has attempted to measure the deleterious costs to human beings of various existing technologies, and the costs and effectiveness of control and prevention methods designed to reduce the risks associated with these technologies. In principle
83
the methodology can be extended to cover all forms of damage to human beings and their environment, and can also be extended to cover potential hazards and future technologies. The programme will start in October 1971 and posts have been advertised since February. Preparatory work will be carried out during the Spring and Summer with the aid of a grant from ICI. This will include both bibliographical work and a small international meeting to discuss the programme. Interested individuals or groups should contact either the Secretary of the Thirty Years Committee, Mr Peter Healey, or the Director of the Science Policy Research Unit.
Statistical picture of change in British society The first issue of Social Trends was published in December of last year. It has been developed by the British Central Statistical Office as an annual publication to satisfy the need for a single statistical volume covering the whole social scene rather than individual aspects of it. It does this by bringing together a comprehensive but highly selective collection of key statistical series to highlight the major wends in society and in social policy; and it presents them with colour charts and diagrams--in a way that will be easily assimilable by the lay reader. In addition there are a number of articles dealing with individual topics in greater depth. The publication of Social Trends represents a major new effort in this country to provide a rounded statistical picture of the pattern of changes in our society as a whole and is an important new development for the CSO. It might be regarded as the first step, albeit at present in an incomplete and relatively unsophisticated way, to show a measure of the quality of life. Apart from the charts and tables there are four main articles in this issue.
In "The growth of the population to the end of the century", Jean Thompson of the Office of Population Censuses and Surveys states that the growth of population is fundamental to any study of the development of society and current projections are for a growth in the population of the U K from 55½ million in 1969 to 66½ million by the year 2001. Professor Brian Abel Smith, Professor of Social Administration at the London School of Economics and Political Science, traces the growth of public expenditure on social services through the period 1951-68 discussing the definitions and classifications used and the reasons--social, demographic and political for these increases. In an article that forecasts the effective demand for housing in Great Britain in the 1970's, A. E. Holmans of the Department of the Environment concludes that the effective demand for new houses in 1981 will be between 345 and 390 thousand a year and that the total stock of dwellings will have risen to 21 million (from 18½ million in 1969). The total number of household units (including non-person households)
FUTURES
March t97t 6
84
News
in 1981 is forecast at 19.7 million. A fourth article by Professor C. A. Moser, Director of the Central Statistical Office, discusses some of the general developments taking place at present in social statistics. In particular, he deals with the formation of the Office of Population Censuses and Surveys and the new general household survey; and the work going on in the CSO to try to fit social statistics into a coherent framework and to induce from the mass of figures which are and will become available, a relatively small number of 'social indicators' to summarise, in much the same way as do economic indicators, our progress in attaining social goals. " T h e r e is a generally felt need," says Moser, "for standardised and universally agreed ways of analysing the present large and confusing array of descriptive data so as to arrive at a new set of derived quantities (indicators) which are somehow comprehensively representative of the state of society." T h e difficulties, as he sees them, have arisen in trying to determine what fundamental aspects of society we are trying to isolate and how they might be quantitatively defined. " T h e components of a good or happy life are as immeasurable as the two adjectives good and happy and it is here that the problem ceases to be purely statistical and requires the contributions of social administrators, social scientists, etc." At the Central Statistical Office, work is being carried out in three types of social indicators in a given field; on informative indicators (describing partitular conditions), evaluative indicators (relating to particular policy programmes) and preditive indicators. Here are some of the pointers that emerge from a glance through the charts and tables of Social Trends. • Life expectation has increased to about 69 and 75 years for men and women respectively compared to 48 and 52 years at the beginning of the century.
• Nearly one third of the total United Kingdom population is now concentrated in South East England. • T h e emission of smoke into the atmosphere was more than halved between 1951 and 1968; but the emission of sulphur dioxide increased between 1951 and 1961 and has not changed significantly since. • Deaths from tuberculosis have fallen dramatically over the last twenty years but bronchitis and pneumonia still take a heavy toll. T h e incidence of lung cancer and heart diseases has risen sharply and they account for over half of all deaths among men aged between 45 and 64. • Since 1954 there has been a sharp decrease in the average length of stay in hospitals and the n u m b e r of inpatients treated annually has increased by nearly a half despite a decline in the average n u m b e r of beds occupied. • Only about one in seven births now take place at home, less than half the proportion in 1961. • Real personal disposable income per head, a measure of the real purchasing power of a person, rose by over half between 1951 and 1969. • During this time, the real purchasing power of retirement pensions went up by a broadly similar a m o u n t and was drawn by over 7 million people in 1969 compared to just over 4 million in 1951. e 5 ~ million holidays were taken abroad in 1969 compared to 1½ million in 1951. In 1970 nearly half of all manual workers had a basic holiday of 3 weeks or more compared to only 15% in 1969. • 39% of all married women in Great Britain now go out to work compared to 26% in 1951. • Despite a rise in the n u m b e r of pupils in schools in Great Britain from 6.9 million to 9.4 million between 1951 and 1969, the average n u m b e r of pupils per teacher (in public sector schools) was reduced during this period. • In 1968/69, 21% of pupils leaving school in England and Wales went on
FUTURES
March 197t
Atews
to further full-time education in universifies, colleges of education, etc, compared to only 14% in 1960/61. • 49% of dwellings in Great Britain were owner-occupied in 1969 compared to 29% in 1950. During this period dwellings rented from private owners fell by more than a half to a level of 16% of the total stock of dwellings. Between 1961 and 1969 the average price of new dwellings mort-
gaged with building societies by private owners rose by 71%. • The number of indictable offences known, per thousand population, more than doubled between 1951 and 1968. The number of persons convicted in Great Britain of offences involving dangerous drugs rose from about 4 500 in 1967 to nearly 7 000 in 1969. Social Trends, No. 1, is published by HMSO, London, price £3.25.
International social forecasting institute in Rome Since Mankind 2000 accepted an offer of office facilities in Rome, attention of the international futures 'invisible college' has been focused on the relatively new organisation which offered this facility. This is the Institute of Applied Research Documentation and Study (Istituto Ricerche Applicate Documentazione e Studi). IRADES is a non-profit independent organisation whose research and activities are directed to all whose cultural interests are future-oriented. The principle purpose of its studies is to consider the future of man in his social environment; and to this end it seeks: • systematic knowledge of modern Italian society through comprehensive exploration of emerging trends; • to promote and carry out a programme of forecasting research in co-operation with Italian and international centres and experts; • to supply the results of its studies to all decision-makers in social, economic, political and managing fields. The working method of the institute is essentially interdisciplinary. Not only does IRADES take advantage of the advice of experts in various fields, but it also incorporates in-house study eentres and sections for documentation and information statistics, applied social research, planning and organisa-
FUTURES
March 1971
tion, publications, courses and meetings and feedback. The interests chosen by the institute centre on the family, contemporary culture, mass media, technology, political management and industrial management. Work at IRADES started during the second half of 1968 and the Institute is expected to be fully operational for 1972. First accomplishments include the building up of a library and the first stage of a data bank on social forecasting. Two studies have been carried out on the future position of man and his family in tomorrow's society and on the purpose of explaining historical forecasting. Among IRADES publications to date is Documentation 1970, which takes the form of a futures year book; this is currently being revised and translated into English. IRADES is also carrying out experiments with systematising an ongoing bibliography of futures information along the lines suggested in the Kyoto paper of Stephan Schwarz, Research Institute of Swedish National Defence. And the Institute is preparing the pilot copy of a Bulletin of social forecasting that is planned for regular publication. IRA.DES' address is Via Paisiello 6, 00198, Roma, Italy.
85