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Stop the tide
OPINION LETTERS Stop the tide From Tony Scanlon Among the ideas Stephen Battersby discussed for limiting sea level rise was the option of flooding inland basins (18 September, p 40). Yet he neglected to mention the only one big enough to make any difference. Most of the lowlands around the Caspian Sea are desert, up to 27 metres below sea level. To flood it we need only deepen the old channel linking it to the Black Sea. Although this would mean drowning towns, oilfields and farmland, not to mention the cities of Baku and Astrakhan, there may be compensating benefits from a larger Caspian. It might moderate temperatures and increase rainfall throughout central Asia, expanding fisheries and sea trade. Admittedly, it may be hard to get the five affected countries bordering the Caspian to agree. Northbridge, New South Wales, Australia
Let’s hope that future generations will find the ingenuity, resources and the will to do better than His Majesty. King’s Somborne, Hampshire, UK
Presenting statistics
From Frank Fahy The references to King Canute on your cover and contents page in relation to the article on sea level rise are somewhat misleading, but ominously relevant. It is believed that Canute (or Cnut), a modest man in spite of reigning over England, Denmark, Norway and part of Sweden, sat on the bank of the Thames at Thorney Island in London and commanded the tide to retreat, to convince his nobles, who annoyed him with their flattery, that there were limitations to his power.
Enigma Number 1616
One good turn Bob Walker Joe’s 3-by-3 grid can be made to represent any of the six faces of a die by placing nine counters, coloured on one side and white on the other. Joe placed the nine counters with just the one in the centre coloured side up. Penny’s task this week is to increase the number represented to 4 by turning over counters. But, of course, there is a catch. Every time Penny decides which counter to turn over she has
to remember to turn over all counters in squares that are immediately adjacent, horizontally and vertically. Not only that, she has to record how many counters she turns over each time, and the total has to be the minimum possible. What is that minimum?
WIN £15 will be awarded to the sender of the first correct answer opened on Wednesday 10 November. The Editor’s decision is final. Please send entries to Enigma 1616, New Scientist, Lacon House, 84 Theobald’s Road, London WC1X 8NS, or to [email protected] (please include your postal address). Answer to 1610 Badminton progressions: the score was 21-15 (15-21 is also an acceptable answer) The winner Alan Patterson of Cheltenham, Victoria, Australia
28 | NewScientist | 9 October 2010
Richard Graham Linda Geddes states that the first time DNA evidence was challenged in a UK court was during the trial of Sean Hoey for the 1998 bombing in Omagh, Northern Ireland (21 August, p 8). While it is true that until then DNA evidence had not been substantially challenged on the basis of its scientific reliability, the way it was presented in court had previously been challenged successfully several times. In the case of Regina v Deen 1993, for example, DNA evidence was challenged on the grounds of the “prosecutor’s fallacy”. This way of presenting evidence mistakenly implies that the probability that the accused is innocent must be small when their DNA has been found to match a sample at the crime scene, as the probability of a randomly chosen person’s DNA matching that from the crime scene is also small. Forensic scientists and statisticians have expended much energy in developing the best way to calculate the statistics relating to DNA evidence. It is equally important that we understand how these statistics should be best presented in court. Ashbourne, Derbyshire, UK
Complex inheritance From Alec Cawley Evelyn Fox Keller expresses dismay at the persistent rejection of the answer “neither nature nor nurture, but both” to the perennial debate setting one against the other (18 September, p 28). This ambiguity is unpalatable to many people because they
want an answer that they can do something with. If we know whether genius or criminality is a result of a gene or an upbringing, then we can act accordingly. It is unfortunate that the public have been trained by simple models, such as the inheritance of eye colour, to believe that the underlying genetic mechanisms are simple. Despite the impression given by animations of DNA helices and printouts of sequences from the Human Genome Project, it is not easy to tell whether something is genetic. The continuation of the nature vs nurture debate is an implicit call for a simple answer one way
or the other. Until our portrayal of genetics progresses beyond simple clockwork models, people will not accept the answer that it is all very complicated. Penwood, Berkshire, UK
Food-chain reactions From Jann Else It was interesting to read that cane toads have not had a devastating impact on Australian wildlife as was initially feared (11 September, p 18). However, there is an impact in south-east Queensland that was not mentioned. At night the toads hop onto city roads to soak up the warmth coming off the asphalt, and end up getting squashed by traffic. Crows feast on their bodies, having learned to avoid eating their poison glands, and crow numbers have been increasing as a result. The storm bird, a cuckoo
Let’s hope that future generations will find the ingenuity, resources and the will to do better than His Majesty. King’s Somborne, Hampshire, UK
Presenting statistics
From Frank Fahy The references to King Canute on your cover and contents page in relation to the article on sea level rise are somewhat misleading, but ominously relevant. It is believed that Canute (or Cnut), a modest man in spite of reigning over England, Denmark, Norway and part of Sweden, sat on the bank of the Thames at Thorney Island in London and commanded the tide to retreat, to convince his nobles, who annoyed him with their flattery, that there were limitations to his power.
Enigma Number 1616
One good turn Bob Walker Joe’s 3-by-3 grid can be made to represent any of the six faces of a die by placing nine counters, coloured on one side and white on the other. Joe placed the nine counters with just the one in the centre coloured side up. Penny’s task this week is to increase the number represented to 4 by turning over counters. But, of course, there is a catch. Every time Penny decides which counter to turn over she has
to remember to turn over all counters in squares that are immediately adjacent, horizontally and vertically. Not only that, she has to record how many counters she turns over each time, and the total has to be the minimum possible. What is that minimum?
WIN £15 will be awarded to the sender of the first correct answer opened on Wednesday 10 November. The Editor’s decision is final. Please send entries to Enigma 1616, New Scientist, Lacon House, 84 Theobald’s Road, London WC1X 8NS, or to [email protected] (please include your postal address). Answer to 1610 Badminton progressions: the score was 21-15 (15-21 is also an acceptable answer) The winner Alan Patterson of Cheltenham, Victoria, Australia
28 | NewScientist | 9 October 2010
Richard Graham Linda Geddes states that the first time DNA evidence was challenged in a UK court was during the trial of Sean Hoey for the 1998 bombing in Omagh, Northern Ireland (21 August, p 8). While it is true that until then DNA evidence had not been substantially challenged on the basis of its scientific reliability, the way it was presented in court had previously been challenged successfully several times. In the case of Regina v Deen 1993, for example, DNA evidence was challenged on the grounds of the “prosecutor’s fallacy”. This way of presenting evidence mistakenly implies that the probability that the accused is innocent must be small when their DNA has been found to match a sample at the crime scene, as the probability of a randomly chosen person’s DNA matching that from the crime scene is also small. Forensic scientists and statisticians have expended much energy in developing the best way to calculate the statistics relating to DNA evidence. It is equally important that we understand how these statistics should be best presented in court. Ashbourne, Derbyshire, UK
Complex inheritance From Alec Cawley Evelyn Fox Keller expresses dismay at the persistent rejection of the answer “neither nature nor nurture, but both” to the perennial debate setting one against the other (18 September, p 28). This ambiguity is unpalatable to many people because they
want an answer that they can do something with. If we know whether genius or criminality is a result of a gene or an upbringing, then we can act accordingly. It is unfortunate that the public have been trained by simple models, such as the inheritance of eye colour, to believe that the underlying genetic mechanisms are simple. Despite the impression given by animations of DNA helices and printouts of sequences from the Human Genome Project, it is not easy to tell whether something is genetic. The continuation of the nature vs nurture debate is an implicit call for a simple answer one way
or the other. Until our portrayal of genetics progresses beyond simple clockwork models, people will not accept the answer that it is all very complicated. Penwood, Berkshire, UK
Food-chain reactions From Jann Else It was interesting to read that cane toads have not had a devastating impact on Australian wildlife as was initially feared (11 September, p 18). However, there is an impact in south-east Queensland that was not mentioned. At night the toads hop onto city roads to soak up the warmth coming off the asphalt, and end up getting squashed by traffic. Crows feast on their bodies, having learned to avoid eating their poison glands, and crow numbers have been increasing as a result. The storm bird, a cuckoo