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Strategic planning: Balancing short-run performance and longer term prospects
A Current Awareness Service for Long Range Planning FILDES, R.
The Evaluation o f Extrapolative Forecasting Methods
InternationalJournal of Forecasting,8 (1), 81-98 (June 1992). An examination is made of how a forecasting method should be chosen based on analysing alternative loss functions. It is argued that a population of time series must be evaluated by time period and by series. Exponential smoothing and 'naive' models, previously thought to be 'robust' performers, forecast poorly for the particular set of time series under analysis, whatever error measure is used. As a consequence, forecasters should carry out a detailed evaluation of the data series rather than relying on a priori analysis developed from earlier forecasting competitions.
FISHER,P. G. and WALLIS,K. F. Seasonality in Large-Scale Macroeconomic Models Journal of Forecasting,11 (4), 255-270 (June 1992). The quarterly macroeconomic models used in forecasting are commonly estimated from seasonally adjusted data. Nevertheless, these models can generate forecasts with seasonal patterns, and an assessment is made of the cause and cure of this phenomenon. It is found that forecast seasonality is induced by seasonality in the various inputs: exogenous variables, residual adjustments, the dynamic specification of certain equations, and annual changes in policy variables.
I N D I V I D U A L PLANNING T O P I C S - - P E R F O R M A N C E MEASUREMENT VELIYATH,R.
Strategic Planning: Balancing Short-run Performance and Longer Term Prospects
Long Range Planning, 25 (3), 86-97 (June 1992). Major corporations have reduced their formal planning activities. However, there is still a need to stay attuned to environmental changes and undertake at least minimal amounts of planning. Those strategic management activities that emphasize anticipation need to be disinguished from those that rely on hindsight. Some activities can be altered to become more anticipatory or vice versa. Performance should be enhanced by correct choice and effective implementation of the appropriate degree of anticipation or hindsight, given each firm's unique needs. FINLAY, P. N. and MARPLES,C.
Strategic Group Decision Support SystemsmA Guide for the Unwary
Long Range Planning, 25 (3), 98-107, (June 1992). A Group Decision Support System (DSS) is a system that supports a group of people working together in a decisionrelated process. The additional technological feature of a Group DSS is the ability to communicate electronically between participants. A variety of Group DSS configuration exists. The effects of Group DSS are not necessarily altogether favourable. For example, the use of IT-intensive systems increases the level of information input to such an extent that group efficiency can be impaired. Heightened awareness of participants' views can also increase the level of conflict within the group.
151
unit chosen to build the basic model. Results are presented for the simplest structural models, the trend plus error models, under the assumption that the parameters of the model are known. INDIVIDUAL PLANNING T O P I C S - - C O N T I N G E N C Y PLANNING HARDY, K. G.
Contingency Planning
Business Quarterly, 56 (4), 26-28 (Spring 1992). Good decision making generally means keeping options open for as long as possible. Contingency planning takes time of busy executives but usually pays off when the unexpected happens. The cost of surprises can be reduced. The chances of good but unforeseen opportunities can be much better. INDIVIDUAL PLANNING TOPICS--STRATEGY FLOYD, S. W. and WOOLRIDGE,B.
Middle Management Involvement in Strategy and its Association with Strategic Type: A Research Note
Strategic ManagementJournal, 13, 153-167 (Summer 1992). A study investigated the strategic involvement of 259 middle managers in 25 organizations. Drawing from clinical research, a theoretical typology of middle management roles in strategy is developed. Measures for each role are derived, and the relationship between middle management strategic involvement and Miles and Snow's (1978) strategic type is examined. Results suggest the usefulness of these measures in assessing both the level and type of middle management strategic activity. VAN DE VEN, A. H.
Suggestions for Studying Strategy Process: A Research Note
Strategic ManagementJournal, 13, 16%188 (Summer 1992). Three suggestions to researchers are made for studying strategy process. First, define the meaning of process. The second suggestion is to clarify the theory of process. The third suggestion is to design research to observe strategy process in such a way that is consistent with one's definition and theory of process. INDIVIDUAL PLANNING T O P I C S - - M O D E L S
L[N, W. T.
Analysis and Forecasting o f Income Statement Account Balances: The Dynamic Interdependency and ARIMA Approaches
Journal of Forecasting,11 (4), 283-307 (June 1992).
GONZALEZ, P.
In a dynamic simultaneous-equations model for analysing and forecasting the account balances in the income statement of a firm, the income statement accounts play the role of the dependent variables that are jointly determined and explained by three types of exogenous variables: non-controllable, performance and controllable. Assessing the forecasting performance of the dynamic model against a naive model and the A R I M A and E11iot-Uphoff models, the dynamic model is a better representation of income statement accounts for the firm and increases forecasting accuracy.
Temporal Aggregation and Systematic Sampling in Structural Time-Series Models
AM~EN, J. P,. M.
Journal of Forecasting,11 (4), 271-281, (June 1992).
Nonlinear Predictor Models
Given a structural time-series model specified at a basic time interval, a review is made of the problems of forecasting efficiency and estimation accuracy generated when the data are collected at a timing interval which is a multiple of the time
Journal of Forecasting,11 (4), 30%324 (June 1992). A complete dynamic model is introduced within the Bayesian framework. This includes the dynamic linear model and the normal discount Bayesian model as special cases and extends to
The Evaluation o f Extrapolative Forecasting Methods
InternationalJournal of Forecasting,8 (1), 81-98 (June 1992). An examination is made of how a forecasting method should be chosen based on analysing alternative loss functions. It is argued that a population of time series must be evaluated by time period and by series. Exponential smoothing and 'naive' models, previously thought to be 'robust' performers, forecast poorly for the particular set of time series under analysis, whatever error measure is used. As a consequence, forecasters should carry out a detailed evaluation of the data series rather than relying on a priori analysis developed from earlier forecasting competitions.
FISHER,P. G. and WALLIS,K. F. Seasonality in Large-Scale Macroeconomic Models Journal of Forecasting,11 (4), 255-270 (June 1992). The quarterly macroeconomic models used in forecasting are commonly estimated from seasonally adjusted data. Nevertheless, these models can generate forecasts with seasonal patterns, and an assessment is made of the cause and cure of this phenomenon. It is found that forecast seasonality is induced by seasonality in the various inputs: exogenous variables, residual adjustments, the dynamic specification of certain equations, and annual changes in policy variables.
I N D I V I D U A L PLANNING T O P I C S - - P E R F O R M A N C E MEASUREMENT VELIYATH,R.
Strategic Planning: Balancing Short-run Performance and Longer Term Prospects
Long Range Planning, 25 (3), 86-97 (June 1992). Major corporations have reduced their formal planning activities. However, there is still a need to stay attuned to environmental changes and undertake at least minimal amounts of planning. Those strategic management activities that emphasize anticipation need to be disinguished from those that rely on hindsight. Some activities can be altered to become more anticipatory or vice versa. Performance should be enhanced by correct choice and effective implementation of the appropriate degree of anticipation or hindsight, given each firm's unique needs. FINLAY, P. N. and MARPLES,C.
Strategic Group Decision Support SystemsmA Guide for the Unwary
Long Range Planning, 25 (3), 98-107, (June 1992). A Group Decision Support System (DSS) is a system that supports a group of people working together in a decisionrelated process. The additional technological feature of a Group DSS is the ability to communicate electronically between participants. A variety of Group DSS configuration exists. The effects of Group DSS are not necessarily altogether favourable. For example, the use of IT-intensive systems increases the level of information input to such an extent that group efficiency can be impaired. Heightened awareness of participants' views can also increase the level of conflict within the group.
151
unit chosen to build the basic model. Results are presented for the simplest structural models, the trend plus error models, under the assumption that the parameters of the model are known. INDIVIDUAL PLANNING T O P I C S - - C O N T I N G E N C Y PLANNING HARDY, K. G.
Contingency Planning
Business Quarterly, 56 (4), 26-28 (Spring 1992). Good decision making generally means keeping options open for as long as possible. Contingency planning takes time of busy executives but usually pays off when the unexpected happens. The cost of surprises can be reduced. The chances of good but unforeseen opportunities can be much better. INDIVIDUAL PLANNING TOPICS--STRATEGY FLOYD, S. W. and WOOLRIDGE,B.
Middle Management Involvement in Strategy and its Association with Strategic Type: A Research Note
Strategic ManagementJournal, 13, 153-167 (Summer 1992). A study investigated the strategic involvement of 259 middle managers in 25 organizations. Drawing from clinical research, a theoretical typology of middle management roles in strategy is developed. Measures for each role are derived, and the relationship between middle management strategic involvement and Miles and Snow's (1978) strategic type is examined. Results suggest the usefulness of these measures in assessing both the level and type of middle management strategic activity. VAN DE VEN, A. H.
Suggestions for Studying Strategy Process: A Research Note
Strategic ManagementJournal, 13, 16%188 (Summer 1992). Three suggestions to researchers are made for studying strategy process. First, define the meaning of process. The second suggestion is to clarify the theory of process. The third suggestion is to design research to observe strategy process in such a way that is consistent with one's definition and theory of process. INDIVIDUAL PLANNING T O P I C S - - M O D E L S
L[N, W. T.
Analysis and Forecasting o f Income Statement Account Balances: The Dynamic Interdependency and ARIMA Approaches
Journal of Forecasting,11 (4), 283-307 (June 1992).
GONZALEZ, P.
In a dynamic simultaneous-equations model for analysing and forecasting the account balances in the income statement of a firm, the income statement accounts play the role of the dependent variables that are jointly determined and explained by three types of exogenous variables: non-controllable, performance and controllable. Assessing the forecasting performance of the dynamic model against a naive model and the A R I M A and E11iot-Uphoff models, the dynamic model is a better representation of income statement accounts for the firm and increases forecasting accuracy.
Temporal Aggregation and Systematic Sampling in Structural Time-Series Models
AM~EN, J. P,. M.
Journal of Forecasting,11 (4), 271-281, (June 1992).
Nonlinear Predictor Models
Given a structural time-series model specified at a basic time interval, a review is made of the problems of forecasting efficiency and estimation accuracy generated when the data are collected at a timing interval which is a multiple of the time
Journal of Forecasting,11 (4), 30%324 (June 1992). A complete dynamic model is introduced within the Bayesian framework. This includes the dynamic linear model and the normal discount Bayesian model as special cases and extends to