Accepted Manuscript Stratigraphy and deformation of Pleistocene talus in relation to a normal fault zone (central Apennines, Italy)
Diethard Sanders, Hugo Ortner, Hannah Pomella PII: DOI: Reference:
S0037-0738(18)30141-6 doi:10.1016/j.sedgeo.2018.05.013 SEDGEO 5353
To appear in:
Sedimentary Geology
Received date: Revised date: Accepted date:
22 March 2018 25 May 2018 25 May 2018
Please cite this article as: Diethard Sanders, Hugo Ortner, Hannah Pomella , Stratigraphy and deformation of Pleistocene talus in relation to a normal fault zone (central Apennines, Italy). Sedgeo (2018), doi:10.1016/j.sedgeo.2018.05.013
This is a PDF file of an unedited manuscript that has been accepted for publication. As a service to our customers we are providing this early version of the manuscript. The manuscript will undergo copyediting, typesetting, and review of the resulting proof before it is published in its final form. Please note that during the production process errors may be discovered which could affect the content, and all legal disclaimers that apply to the journal pertain.
ACCEPTED MANUSCRIPT
6WUDWLJUDSK\DQGGHIRUPDWLRQRI3OHLVWRFHQHWDOXVLQUHODWLRQWRDQRUPDOIDXOW]RQH FHQWUDO$SHQQLQHV,WDO\ 'LHWKDUG6DQGHUVD +XJR2UWQHUD+DQQDK3RPHOODD
T
,QVWLWXWHRI*HRORJ\)DFXOW\RI*HRDQG$WPRVSKHULF6FLHQFHV8QLYHUVLW\RI,QQVEUXFN
IP
D
,QQVEUXFN$XVWULD(8
CR
FRUUHVSRQGLQJDXWKRU
US
HPDLODGUHVVHV'LHWKDUG*6DQGHUV#XLENDFDW'LHWKDUG6DQGHUV +XJR2UWQHU#XLENDFDW +XJR2UWQHU +DQQDK3RPHOOD#XLENDFDW+DQQDK3RPHOOD
AN
$%675$&7
M
D
,QVWXGLHVRIQHRWHFWRQLVPDOOXYLDOIDQDQGWDOXVGHSRVLWVFRPPRQO\DUHXVHGDVGHIRUPDWLRQ
TE
PDUNHUVEXWUDUHO\DUHVWXGLHGWKHPVHOYHVDQGLQUHODWLRQWRDGMDFHQWIDXOWV+HUHLQZHUHSRUW RQWKHIDFLHVGLDJHQHVLVDQGGHIRUPDWLRQRIDWDOXVVXFFHVVLRQDQGIDXOWFDWDFODVLWHVLQWKH
CE P
FHQWUDO$SHQQLQHVRI,WDO\7KHVWXG\VLWHLVORFDWHGQHDUWKHZHVWHUQHQGRIWKH$VVHUJL QRUPDOIDXOW]RQHWKDWDFFRPRGDWHV!PRIYHUWLFDOWKURZEXWZDVGRUPDQWVLQFHD
AC
ORQJHULQWHUYDORIWLPH
7KHSUHVHUYHGWDOXVVXFFHVVLRQLVFRQILQHGWRWKHIDXOWKDQJLQJZDOO'HSRVLWLRQDQG GHIRUPDWLRQRIWKHWDOXVRYHUODSSHGZLWKWKHWHUPLQDOSKDVHRIIDXOWDFWLYLW\7KHWDOXV DFFXPXODWHGPDLQO\IURPJUDLQIORZVFRKHVLYHGHEULVIORZVDQGHSKHPHUDOIOXLGIORZVLW FRPSULVHVL WZRVXSHUSRVHGXQLWVRIVFUHHEUHFFLDVSDUWO\FHPHQWHGEHIRUHGHIRUPDWLRQDQG LQWHUFDODWHGZLWKLL DQLQWHUYDORIXQOLWKLILHGVFUHHDQGVRLOV7KHH[SRVHGVXFFHVVLRQ DFFXPXODWHGEHWZHHQFDOND%3WROHVVWKDQaFDOND%37DOXVEUHFFLDVUHFRUG FRPSOH[GLDJHQHWLFVXFFHVVLRQVLQFOXGLQJHOXYLDWLRQGLVVROXWLRQRISULPDU\PDWUL[JURZWKRI
ACCEPTED MANUSCRIPT
LQWHUVWLWLDOFHPHQWVLQWHUUXSWHGE\HSLVRGHVRIGLVVROXWLRQDQGRUIUDFWXUDWLRQDQGODWHVWDJH GLVVROXWLRQSRURVLW\GHYHORSPHQW'RZQWKURZE\IDXOWLQJSURGXFHGWZRW\SHVRIIROGVL D V\QFOLQHDQWLFOLQHSDLUZLWKLQFOLQHGIROGD[HVURXJKO\QRUPDOWRWKHIDXOWSODQHDQGLL D UHFXPEHQWIROGZLWKDQD[LVVXESDUDOOHOWRGHSRVLWLRQDOVWULNHRIWKHVFUHHVORSHWKH FRPSOLFDWHGVWUDWLJUDSKLFDUFKLWHFWXUHRIWKHGHIRUPHGVXFFHVVLRQLVWUXQFDWHGDORQJDQG
IP
T
KLGGHQEHQHDWKWKHWRSVRLORIWKHSUHVHQWXQLIRUPVORSHVXUIDFH)XUWKHUGHIRUPDWLRQ VWUXFWXUHVLQFOXGHFRQMXJDWHIUDFWXUHVORFDOO\FRDWHGE\VSHOHRWKHPIORZVWRQHVGHIRUPDWLRQ
CR
EDQGVVHGLPHQWIDEULFVFKDUDFWHUL]HGE\SODQDUFODVWFRQWDFWVDQGOLWKRFODVWVFUXVKHGLQVLWX
US
ZKLOHHPEHGGHGLQWKHVHGLPHQW&HPHQWDWLRQRYHUODSSHGZLWKDQGSRVWGDWHGLQVLWX FUXVKLQJRIFODVWV
AN
7KHFRUHRIWKHQRUPDOIDXOWLVDQXOWUDFDWDFODVLWHWKDWL VKRZVGLIIHUHQWGHJUHHVRI GLDJHQHWLFUHFU\VWDOOL]DWLRQLQWRPLFURWRSVHXGRVSDUDQGLL WKDWLVULGGOHGZLWKVROXWLRQ
M
SRUHVIULQJHGRUILOOHGZLWKVXFFHVVLYH JHQHUDWLRQV RIFDOFLWHFHPHQW7KHVHFHPHQWVDUH
D
ORFDOO\VKDUSO\FDSSHGDORQJGLVFUHWHOHYHOVDQGRYHUODLQE\XOWUDFDWDFODVLWHZLWKIORDWLQJ
TE
FKXQNVRIFDOFLWHFHPHQWFU\VWDOVULSSHGRIIGXULQJLQFUHPHQWVRIIDXOWLQJ6WDEOHLVRWRSHVRI R[\JHQDQGFDUERQLQGLFDWHWKDWWKHXOWUDFDWDFODVLWHVOLWKLILHGXQGHULQIOXHQFHRIPHWHRULF
CE P
ZDWHUVEXWDWYDULDEOHGHJUHHVRIURFNEXIIHULQJWKHFDOFLWHFHPHQWVZLWKLQWKHWDOXVEUHFFLDV DQGWKHIORZVWRQHVDORQJIUDFWXUHVLQWXUQSUHFLSLWDWHGIURPPHWHRULFGHULYHGZDWHUVZLWK
AC
ORZWRQHJOLJLEOHURFNEXIIHULQJ7KHVWUXFWXUDOMX[WDSRVLWLRQRIXOWUDFDWDFODVLWHVSUREDEO\ IRUPHGLQNPGHSWK ZLWKWDOXVEUHFFLDVLQGLFDWHVWKDWWKHSUHVHUYHGIDXOWWDOXVHQVHPEOH UHFRUGVRQO\WKHWHUPLQDOSKDVHRIWRWDOIDXOWLQJ7KHLQWHUVWLWLDOFHPHQWVLQWDOXVWKH IORZVWRQHVRQIUDFWXUHZDOOVDQGWKHFHPHQWVLQXOWUDFDWDFODVLWHVVKRXOGEHGDWDEOHZLWKWKH
87KHUURUFKURQPHWKRG7KLVSURPLVHVWREHDQHZDSSURDFKWRGHULYHDJHFRQVWUDLQWV
RQWDOXVFHPHQWDWLRQDQGIUDFWXUDWLRQDQGRQSDODHRDFWLYLW\DQGILQDOGRUPDQFHRIQRUPDO IDXOWV
ACCEPTED MANUSCRIPT
.H\ZRUGV4XDWHUQDU\$SHQQLQHVQHRWHFWRQLVPIDXOWLQJWDOXVFRVHLVPLFGHIRUPDWLRQ ,QWURGXFWLRQ ,QVWXGLHVRIQHRWHFWRQLFDFWLYLW\SHEEO\VXFFHVVLRQVGHSRVLWHGIURPWDOXVVORSHVRUIURP
IP
T
DOOXYLDOIDQVW\SLFDOO\DUHXVHGDVGHIRUPDWLRQPDUNHUVRQO\EXWUDUHO\DUHVWXGLHGWKHPVHOYHV DQGLQWKHLUUHODWLRQWRDGMDFHQWIDXOWV7DOXVRUVFUHHVORSHVIRUPE\SK\VLFDOZHDWKHULQJRI
CR
FOLIIVLHVORSHV!LQGLSW\SLFDOO\RIFRPSHWHQWURFNVHJ
US
-DFNVRQYDQ6WHLMQ ,QPRXQWDLQUDQJHVVFUHHVORSHGHYHORSPHQWLVIDYRXUHGE\ L SUHVHQFHRIKLJKDQGVWHHSPRXQWDLQIODQNVDQGRUIDXOWVFDUSVDQGLL URFNVWKDWSURGXFH
AN
VFUHHXSRQSK\VLFDOZHDWKHULQJWKHODWWHULVFRQWUROOHGE\WKHW\SHDQGVWUXFWXUDO SUHGLVSRVLWLRQRIWKHURFNHJMRLQWLQJEHGGLQJVFKLVWRVLW\ DQGE\HQYLURQPHQWDOO\VWHHUHG
M
SURFHVVHVVXFKDVGHJODFLDWLRQURFNZHDNHQLQJE\WKHUPDOIDWLJXHIUHH]HWKDZF\FOHV
D
JURZWKRIVHJUHJDWLRQLFHUDLQIDOOLQWHQVLW\GLVWULEXWLRQGLVVROXWLRQRIFDUERQDWHPLQHUDOV
TE
DQGYHJHWDWLRQFRYHUVHHHJ2O\SKDQW.RWDUEDDQG6WU|PTXLVW%HUWUDQHWDO YDQ6WHLMQHWDO:DWDQDEHHWDO$QGUp+DOHVDQG5RHULQJ
CE P
6DVV5HLGDQG7KRPDV.UDXWEODWWHUDQG0RVHU0RRUHHWDO 6DQGHUVHWDO0RODURDQG0F.D\YDQ6WHLMQ.UDXWEODWWHUHWDO
AC
9HQWUDHWDO+DOODQG7KRUQ6DQGHUVHWDO $QRWKHUSURFHVVWKDWFDQ PDUNHGO\LQIOXHQFHWKHDFFXPXODWLRQDQGVWUDWLJUDSKLFDUFKLWHFWXUHRIVFUHHVORSHVLV V\QGHSRVLWLRQDOWHFWRQLVP 7KHHIIHFWVRIV\QGHSRVLWLRQDOGHIRUPDWLRQRQVFUHHVORSHGHYHORSPHQWFDQEHZHOO VWXGLHGLQWKHFHQWUDO$SHQQLQHVUDQJHRI,WDO\7KHFHQWUDO$SHQQLQHVDUHFKDUDFWHUL]HGE\ LQWHQVH3OLRFHQHWRUHFHQWIDXOWDFWLYLW\DQGQXPHURXVHDUWKTXDNHV)LJ HJ*LUDXGLDQG )UH]]RWWL*DODGLQLDQG*DOOL*KLVHWWLDQG9H]]DQL*DOOLHWDO %RQFLRHWDO*RULHWDO $OWKRXJK3OLRFHQHWR4XDWHUQDU\FRDUVHFODVWLF
ACCEPTED MANUSCRIPT
VXFFHVVLRQVLQYROYHGLQIDXOWLQJDUHORQJNQRZQLQSUHYLRXVVWXGLHVRIQHRWHFWRQLVPWKHVH VXFFHVVLRQVZHUHFRPPRQO\XVHGDVGHIRUPDWLRQPDUNHUVRQO\HJ&HOORHWDO ' $JRVWLQRHWDO*DODGLQLDQG*DOOL5REHUWVDQG0LFKHWWL*DOOLHWDO 3L]]LHWDO*RULHWDO WKHLUVHGLPHQWRORJ\GLDJHQHVLVDQG GHIRUPDWLRQDVZHOODVWKHLUUHODWLRQWRDGMDFHQWIDXOWVDQGIDXOWURFNVLQFRQWUDVWDUHKDUGO\
IP
T
GRFXPHQWHGWRGDWH+HUHLQZHGHVFULEHDODWH3OHLVWRFHQHWDOXVVXFFHVVLRQVXEMHFWWRQRUPDO IDXOWLQJIROGLQJDQGGLYHUVHW\SHVRILQWUDVWUDWDOGHIRUPDWLRQDQGLWVUHODWLRQWRWKHQRUPDO
CR
IDXOW]RQHDQGDVVRFLDWHGIDXOWURFNV$QDSSURDFKWKDWLQWHJUDWHVWKHIHDWXUHVRIGHIRUPHG
US
SHEEO\VXFFHVVLRQVZLWKWKRVHRIWKHDGMDFHQWIDXOWVDOORZVIRUFRQFOXVLRQVWKDWJREH\RQG ZKDWFRXOGEHDFKLHYHGE\FRQVLGHUDWLRQRIRQO\RQHHOHPHQWWDOXVRUIDXOW7KHGHVFULEHG
AN
GHIRUPDWLRQIHDWXUHVDQGWKHLUUHODWLRQWRIDXOWLQJVKRXOGEHDSSOLFDEOHDOVRWRRWKHUPRXQWDLQ UDQJHVSURYLGHGWKDWFDXWLRQLVWDNHQIRUSRWHQWLDORWKHUHIIHFWVVXFKDVJODFLDOLFHFRYHU DQG
M
DOVRDUHUHOHYDQWWRLQWHUSUHWDWLRQRIQHRWHFWRQLVPLQDUHDVRIFRPSDUDWLYHO\VORZHU
D
GHIRUPDWLRQ
TE
CE P
6HWWLQJ
AC
*HRORJLFDOVXEVWUDWH
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
ACCEPTED MANUSCRIPT
*RULHWDO $IHDWXUHRIWKHFHQWUDO$SHQQLQHVLVWKDWWKUXVWLQJDORQJWKHOHDGLQJ HGJHRIWKHRURJHQLVDFFRPSDQLHGE\XSOLIWDQGHDVWZDUGSURSDJDWLQJEDFNDUF1:6( H[WHQVLRQHJ0DOLQYHUQRDQG5\DQ/DYHFFKLDHWDO)HUUDQWLHWDO &DYLQDWRDQG'H&HOOHV*KLVHWWLDQG9H]]DQL*DODGLQLDQG0HVVLQD 0RQWRQHHWDO*DOOLHWDO0DQWRYDQLHWDO9LWLHWDO&DUPLQDWL
IP
T
DQG'RJOLRQL 7KHFHQWUDO$SHQQLQHVKHQFHEHFDPHLQWHUVSHUVHGZLWKIDXOWERXQGHG KDOIJUDEHQVWRV\PPHWULFDOJUDEHQV)LJ% HJ3DWDFFDHWDO&DYLQDWRDQG'H
CR
&HOOHV&DODPLWDHWDO*DODGLQLDQG*DOOL' $GGH]LRHWDO7RQGL
US
DQG&HOOR3DSDQLNRODRXHWDO/DYHFFKLDHWDO 7KHPDMRUORZ SRVLWLRQHGLQWUDPRQWDQHEDVLQVDUHILOOHGZLWK3OLRFHQHWR4XDWHUQDU\VXFFHVVLRQVDQGPRVW
AN
RIWKHVHEDVLQVDUHVHGLPHQWWUDSVWLOOSUHVHQW&DYLQDWRHWDO*DODGLQLHWDO *RULHWDO RUXQGHUJRPRGHUDWHXSOLIWDQGHURVLRQHJ*RULHWDO 7KHKLJKHU
M
SRVLWLRQHGIDXOWEDVLQVLQWXUQW\SLFDOO\DUHXQGHUILOOHGDQGWKHWRSRJUDSKLFUHOLHIDPSOLWXGH
D
RIIDXOWKRUVWVRYHUDOOFRUUHODWHVZLWKIDXOWWKURZ3L]]L 7KHIODQNVRIWKHVHIDXOW
TE
ERXQGHGEDVLQVDUHRQODSSHGE\VFUHHVORSHVDQGRUDOOXYLDOIDQVXFFHVVLRQVHJ' $JRVWLQR HWDO*LUDXGL' $OHVVDQGURHWDO*DODGLQLHWDO
CE P
,QWKH*UDQ6DVVRDUHD0HVR&DLQR]RLFFDUERQDWHSODWIRUPWREDVLQDOVXFFHVVLRQV EHFDPHVWDFNHGLQWRWKUXVWLPEULFDWHVZLWKDQDUFXDWHIURQWHJ*KLVHWWLDQG9H]]DQL
AC
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
ACCEPTED MANUSCRIPT
WKDWLQFRQWUDVWWRWKHILUVWRQHLVQRORQJHUDVVRFLDWHGZLWKVLJQLILFDQWEDVLQILOOLQJWKH $VVHUJLIDXOWDSSHDUVWREHRIORZKLVWRULFDODFWLYLW\FI&KHORQLHWDO%OXPHWWLHWDO $IWHUVKRFNVRIWKH/ $TXLODHDUWKTXDNHVKRZHGH[WHQVLRQDOGLVSODFHPHQWVDORQJ WKH1:HQGRIWKH$VVHUJLIDXOW]RQHDWGHSWKVRIDSSUR[LPDWHO\NPEXWQRVXUIDFH UXSWXUHVZHUHLGHQWLILHGDORQJWKHIDXOWVHJPHQWGHVFULEHGKHUHLQ&KHORQLHWDO
IP
T
(PHUJHR:RUNLQJ*URXS 7KHFHVVDWLRQRIILOOLQJRIWKH$VVHUJLEDVLQLVUHODWHGWRWKH IDFWWKDWL WKHIDXOWKDQJLQJZDOOLVGUDLQHGE\SHUHQQLDOVWUHDPVFRQQHFWHGWRWKH/ $TXLOD±
CR
$WHUQRLQWUDPRQWDQHEDVLQZLWKDVLJQLILFDQWO\ORZHUORFDOEDVHOHYHODQGLL E\ORZDFWLYLW\
US
RIIDXOWLQJ7KH$VVHUJLIDXOWV\VWHPSUREDEO\VWDUWHGGXULQJWKH(DUO\3OHLVWRFHQHDQG UHPDLQHGDFWLYHDWOHDVWXQWLOWKHODWH3OHLVWRFHQHVHHEHORZ
AN
4XDWHUQDU\
M
D
7KH/DVW*ODFLDO0D[LPXP &DPSR,PSHUDWRUH6WDGLDO&36 DQGVXEVHTXHQWUHWUHDWVWDGHV
TE
LVUHFRUGHGE\DFRPSOH[RIUHFHVVLRQDOPRUDLQHVDWPDVO)LJ& HJ $GDPROLHWDO*LUDXGLKLV)LJ 5DGLRFDUERQDJHVLQGLFDWHWKDWLQWKHFHQWUDO
CE P
$SHQQLQHVWKHSHDNODVWJODFLDWLRQODVWHGIURPFDOND%3*LUDXGLDQG)UH]]RWWL *LUDXGL 'XULQJWKH&36JODFLHUVWHUPLQDWHGDWPDVORUKLJKHUWKLV
AC
SUHFOXGHGDZKROHVDOHJODFLDWLRQVXFKDVLQWKH$OSVHJ+XJKHVHWDO ,QWKH*UDQ 6DVVRSUDFWLFDOO\DOOJODFLDOFLUTXHVIDFHWRZDUGV1(WR1)LJ& VHHDOVR*LUDXGL :LWKDVLQJOHH[FHSWLRQQRJODFLDOLFHLVSUHVHQWWRGD\RQO\LQDGHHSVKDG\FLUTXHGLUHFWO\ 1(RIPRXQW&RUQR*UDQGHP)LJ& WKHPORQJ\HDU &DOGHURQHJODFLHU UHWUHDWVDQGZLOOEHYDQLVKHGVRRQ+XJKHVHWDO*UXQHZDOGDQG6FKHLWKDXHU &RQYHUVHO\WKH66:IDFLQJPRXQWDLQIODQNVDUHGHYRLGRIJODFLDOFLUTXHVDQGVKRZVORSHV RIUHODWLYHO\XQLIRUPFRQFDYHSURILOHZLWKGLSVIURPaLQWKHXSVORSHSDUWGRZQWRDIHZ GHJUHHVLQWKHGRZQVORSHIDGHRXWWKHVHVORSHVDUHLQWHUVSHUVHGZLWKFKXWHVSDVVHGE\VQRZ
ACCEPTED MANUSCRIPT
DYDODQFKHVHSKHPHUDOUXQRIIDQGGHEULVIORZV)LJ& 2YHUPRVWRIWKHLUH[WHQWWKH66: IDFLQJVORSHVDUHYHJHWDWHGE\JUDVVDVDUHVXOWRIKXPDQGHIRUHVWDWLRQFIHJ%RUUHOOLHW DODQGUHIHUHQFHVWKHUHLQ ,QZLQWHUWLPHDWOHDVWWKHKLJKHUDUHDVXSIURPURXJKO\ VRPH±PDVOW\SLFDOO\DUHFRYHUHGE\VQRZ/DUJHJURXQGKXJJLQJVQRZ DYDODQFKHVDUHFRPPRQDQGDUHHYLGHQWE\IHDWXUHVVXFKDVFUHVFHQWLFULSXSVRIVRLODQG
IP
T
VFUHHLQWKHDYDODQFKHVWDUWLQJ]RQHVURFNLQFLVHGDYDODQFKHFKXWHVZLWKSROLVKHGDQGVWULDWHG URFNVXUIDFHVWRSSOHGDQGGLVORGJHGIRUHVWDQGLVRODWHGERXOGHUVODLGDVWUD\LQWKHGLVWDO
CR
ORZGLSSLQJVORSHVHFWRURIWDOXVFRQHVDQGDOOXYLDOIDQV,QWKHLUPLGGOHDQGORZHUSDUWWKH
US
VORSHVDUHPDQWOHGE\IRVVLOWDOXVVXFFHVVLRQVWKDWZHUHQRWRYHUULGGHQE\JODFLDOLFHEXW XQGHUZHQWGHIRUPDWLRQDORQJWKH$VVHUJLIDXOW]RQH)LJ%DQG& 7KHSUHVHQWFOLPDWLF
AN
UHJLPHLQWKH*UDQ6DVVRDUHDLVFKDUDFWHUL]HGE\DORZHUOLPLWRIVFUHHSURGXFWLRQDQG JHOLIUDFWLRQXSZDUGIURPaPDVO*LUDXGLSI
M
7KHLQYHVWLJDWHGWDOXVVXFFHVVLRQLVXSWRDIHZWHQVRIPHWHUVLQSUHVHUYHGWKLFNQHVV
D
DQGLVSODFHGLQWRWKH9DOOH0DMHODPDV\QWKHPWKDWFRPSULVHVWKH:UPLDQWR+RORFHQH
TE
LQWHUYDOVHH$GDPROLHWDO 7KHKDQJLQJZDOOVXEVWUDWHRIWKHVWXGLHGVXFFHVVLRQLVWKH 0LRFHQH0DUQHFRQ&HUURJQDXQLW/DQJKLDQWR7RUWRQLDQSURSDUWH RIGHHSZDWHU
CE P
FDOFDUHRXVPDUOVZLWKFDOFLWXUELGLWLFOD\HUV7KHIDXOWKDQJLQJZDOOFRQVLVWVRI0LGGOH-XUDVVLF WR/RZHU&UHWDFHRXVGHHSZDWHUOLPHVWRQHVFI$GDPROLHWDO $PRQJRWKHU
AC
ORFDWLRQVZHKDGVWXGLHGWKHWDOXVDQGLWVGHIRUPDWLRQDORQJWKHHQWLUH$VVHUJLIDXOWV\VWHP )LJ% 7KHH[DPSOHVHOHFWHGIRUPRUHGHWDLOHGGHVFULSWLRQKHUHLQZDVFKRVHQEHFDXVHRI YHU\JRRG'H[SRVXUHRIERWKWDOXVDQGIDXOWVFRPELQHGZLWKSUHVHQFHRIVRLOOHYHOVZLWKLQ WKHWDOXVVXFFHVVLRQWKDWDOORZWRSDUWO\DJHEUDFNHWVFUHHDFFXPXODWLRQDQGIDXOWUHODWHG GHIRUPDWLRQ)LJVDQG 0HWKRGVDQGGHILQLWLRQV
ACCEPTED MANUSCRIPT
7KHEHGURFNWKHWDOXVDQGWKHIDXOWVDUHVKRZQLQWKH&DUWD*HRORJLFDG ,WDOLDVKHHW QXPEHU*UDQ6DVVR*36SLQQHGGDWDSRLQWVZHUHLQGLFDWHGLQWKHILHOGLQVDWHOOLWH RUWKRSKRWRJUDSKVGRZQORDGHGIURP%LQJPDSV2ULHQWDWLRQGDWDEHGGLQJSODQHVMRLQWV IDXOWSODQHVDQGVOLFNHQVLGHV ZHUHSURFHVVHGZLWKWKH7HFWRQLF9%VRIWZDUH2UWQHUHWDO )DXOWSODQHVDQGOLQHDUIHDWXUHVHJIROGD[HV DUHLQGLFDWHGLQGLSD]LPXWKGLS
IP
T
QRWDWLRQ'LSD]LPXWKGLSYDOXHVRIIDXOWSODQHVFRPPRQO\UHSUHVHQWWKHDYHUDJHRIWZRWR ILYHPHDVXUHGYDOXHV)RXUWHHQVDPSOHVRIWDOXVEUHFFLDVQLQHVDPSOHVRIIORZVWRQHVDORQJ
CR
IDXOWVXUIDFHVDQGDORQJIUDFWXUHVZLWKLQWKHWDOXVEUHFFLDVDQGWHQVDPSOHVRIIDXOW
US
FDWDFODVLWHVZHUHWDNHQWRGRFXPHQWURFNIDEULFVLQFXWVODEVDQGWKLQVHFWLRQV7KLQVHFWLRQV ZHUHLQVSHFWHGLQSODQHSRODUL]HGOLJKWXQGHUFURVVHGQLFROVDQGZLWKFURVVHGQLFROVSOXV
AN
GDUNILHOGLOOXPLQDWLRQSKRWRVZLWKOLJKW\HOORZLVKWLQWLQILJXUHV LQPDQ\FDVHVWKHODWWHU
EHWZHHQURFNDQGYRLGVRUYHLQV
M
W\SHRILOOXPLQDWLRQLVEHVWVXLWHGWRGLVSOD\IDEULFVZLWKILQHJUDLQHGPDWULFHVRUWKHFRQWUDVW
D
6HOHFWHGVDPSOHVRIXOWUDFDWDFODVLWHVZHUHLQYHVWLJDWHGLQEDFNVFDWWHUHGHOHFWURQ
TE
PLFURVFRS\)RULQVSHFWLRQVPDOOFKLSVRIXOWUDFDWDFODVLWHZHUHSURGXFHGE\JHQWOHFUXVKLQJ LQWKHODERUDWRU\7KHFKLSVZHUHFOHDQHGRIGXVWZLWKDMHWRISUHVVXUL]HGDLUWKHQPRXQWHG
CE P
DQGVSXWWHUHGZLWKJROG(OHFWURQPLFURVFRSLFLQVSHFWLRQZDVGRQHZLWKD'LJLWDO6FDQQLQJ 0LFURVFRSH-(2/-60/9LQORZYDFXXPPRGHDWN9DFFHOHUDWLRQYROWDJHDJXQ
AC
FXUUHQWRIȝ$ZLWKDEDFNVFDWWHUHGHOHFWURQGHWHFWRU)RUPHDVXUHPHQWRIVWDEOHLVRWRSHVRI R[\JHQDQGFDUERQRIGLDJHQHWLFSURGXFWVDQGKRVWURFNVVDPSOHVZHUHH[FDYDWHGIURP SROLVKHGVODEVZLWKDPLFURGULOO7KHPDVVRILQGLYLGXDOVDPSOHVZHLJKHGIRUPHDVXUHPHQW UDQJHGIURPWRPJ6DPSOHVZHUHZHLJKHGWRDSUHFLVLRQRIȝJRQD0HWWOHU 7ROHGR807PLFUREDODQFHDQGWUDQVIHUUHGLQWRURXQGERWWRPHGERURVLOLFDWHH[HWDLQHUV7KH H[HWDLQHUVWKHQZHUHVHDOHGZLWKEXW\OUXEEHUVHSWDDQGSODFHGLQWRD&7&&RPEL3DO DXWRVDPSOHU0HDVXUHPHQWVZHUHPDGHRQD)LQQLJDQ'HOWDSOXV;/PDVVVSHFWURPHWHU FRQQHFWHGWRD7KHUPR)LQQLJDQ*DV%HQFK,,7KHLQWHUQDOSUHFLVLRQVLJPD RI
ACCEPTED MANUSCRIPT
PHDVXUHPHQWLVW\SLFDOO\EHWZHHQ±IRUUDZį&DQG±ÅIRUUDZį2 WKHH[WHUQDOSUHFLVLRQFDOFXODWHGRYHUVWDQGDUGVSHUUXQW\SLFDOO\LV±ÅIRUį& DQG±ÅIRUį27KHLQKRXVHVWDQGDUGPDWHULDOµ/DDVPDUEOH¶KDVEHHQFDOLEUDWHG WRUHIHUHQFHPDWHULDOV1%61%6&2DQG&2VHH6S|WODQG9HQQHPDQQ IRUIXUWKHUGHWDLOV 7KHVRLOOHYHOVLQWHUFDODWHGLQWRWKHVWXGLHGWDOXVVXFFHVVLRQOHQGHG
IP
T
WKHPVHOYHVIRUUDGLRFDUERQGDWLQJ7KHVRLOVFODVVLI\DVOHSWRVROV:5%FODVVLILFDWLRQ RU UHQG]LQDVFI%XROHWDO DQGDUHEHWZHHQDSSUR[LPDWHO\FPLQWKLFNQHVV)URP
CR
WKHWRXJKDQGGHQVHVRLOOHYHOVEXONVDPSOHVZHUHFKLVHOHGRXWDWDGHSWKRIFPEHORZ
US
WKHVXUIDFHRIWKHDQWKURSRJHQLFRXWFURS&KXQNVRIH[FDYDWHGVRLOPDWHULDOZHUHSXWLQWR JODVVMDUVRULQWRSODVWLFPXJVWKDWZHUHZDVKHGZLWKDFHWRQWRUHPRYHDQ\SRWHQWLDOIDWW\
AN
VXEVWDQFH$JHGDWLQJRIEXONVDPSOHVZDVGRQHIRUWKHVLHYHGPLFURQVPHVKZLGWK DQG DFLGZDVKHGEXONRUJDQLFIUDFWLRQ5DGLRFDUERQPHDVXUHPHQWVDQGDJHGHWHUPLQDWLRQVZHUH
M
FRQGXFWHGE\%HWD$QDO\WLF,QF0LDPL8QLWHG6WDWHV
D
)RUIDXOWUHODWHGURFNVGLIIHUHQWFODVVLILFDWLRQVKDYHEHHQSURSRVHGZLWKUHVSHFWWRD
TE
D FRKHVLYH OLWKLILHG RUQRQFRKHVLYHQDWXUHE FRQWHQWLQXOWUDFDWDFODVWLFPDWUL[F WKH FRQWHQWDQGRUVL]HRIURFNIUDJPHQWVYLVLEOHZLWKWKHQDNHGH\HDQGG WKHSUHVHQFHRI
CE P
IROLDWLRQRURIDQRQIROLDWHGµUDQGRP¶ IDEULFVHH6LEVRQ+HLW]PDQQ :RRGFRFNDQG0RUW +HUHLQZHXVHDVOLJKWO\PRGLILHGYHUVLRQRIWKH6LEVRQ
AC
FODVVLILFDWLRQIRUGHVLJQDWLRQRIEULWWOHIDXOWIUDJPHQWHGURFN7RDYRLGWKHXVHRIWKHWHUP EUHFFLDZKLFKRWKHUZLVHPHDQVDVROLGURFNFRPSRVHGRIDQJXODUIUDJPHQWV IRULQFRKHVLYH IUDFWXUHGURFNZLWK!RIYLVLEOHIUDJPHQWVZHXVHWKHWHUPFDFLULWHDVLQWURGXFHGE\ +HLW]PDQQ 7KHXOWUDFDWDFODVLWHVDORQJWKHIDXOWFRUHVGHVFULEHGKHUHLQVKRZGLIIHUHQW GHJUHHVRIGLDJHQHWLFUHFU\VWDOOL]DWLRQWRPLFURVSDUDQGSVHXGRVSDU2UWQHUHWDO 6DQGHUVHWDO :HGHVLJQDWHWKHVHQRQIROLDWHGEXWGLDJHQHWLFDOO\UHFU\VWDOOL]HGURFNV DVµVSDUU\XOWUDFDWDFODVLWHV¶)LJ ,QWKHIROORZLQJIRUVDNHRIEUHYLW\WKHFRQWDFWRIDIDXOW VXUIDFHDQGRYHUO\LQJ4XDWHUQDU\GHSRVLWVLQYROYHGLQIDXOWLQJLVDEEUHYLDWHGDV)4FRQWDFW
ACCEPTED MANUSCRIPT
6HGLPHQWDU\IDFLHV 7ZRJURXSVRIWDOXVIDFLHVDUHGLVWLQJXLVKHG7DEOH )DFLHVJURXSLQFOXGHVD EUHFFLDVZLWKRSHQZRUNFODVWIDEULFDQGE FODVWVXSSRUWHGEUHFFLDVZLWKUHOLFWVRIDQ
IP
T
LQWHUVWLWLDOPDWUL[7KHRSHQZRUNEUHFFLDVFRPSULVHSDFNDJHVXSWRPRUHWKDQPLQ WKLFNQHVVRIYHUWLFDOO\XQVKDUSO\GHOLPLWHGVWUDWDWRJHQWOHOHQVHVLGHQWLILHGE\GLIIHUHQFHVLQ
CR
PHDQJUDLQVL]H)LJ$%DQG& ,QFXWVODEDQGWKLQVHFWLRQWKHRSHQZRUNEUHFFLDVPD\
US
EHFRPSOHWHO\GHYRLGRIPDWUL[DQGDUHHQWLUHO\OLWKLILHGE\FDOFLWHFHPHQWV)DFLHV$LQ 7DEOH RUDVLGHRIFHPHQWVFRQWDLQUHPQDQWVRIDQLQWHUVWLWLDOPDWUL[RIOLWKLFZDFNHVWRQHWR
AN
SDFNVWRQH)DFLHV%LQ7DEOH 0DQ\RSHQZRUNIDEULFVVKRZKLJKO\KHWHURJHQHRXVFODVW SDFNLQJZLWKSDWFKHVRIGHQVHO\SDFNHGFODVWVFKDQJLQJZLWKSDWFKHVFKDUDFWHUL]HGE\ZLGH
M
LQWHUVWLWLDOSRUHVSDFHV)LJ' 7KHSDWFKHVZLWKKLJKFODVWSDFNLQJGHQVLW\PD\VKRZILWWHG
D
FODVWERXQGDULHVDQGRUSODQDUFRQWDFWVEHWZHHQFODVWVLQDGGLWLRQWKHSDWFK\FKDQJHVRIFODVW
TE
SDFNLQJDUHDFFRPSDQLHGE\DQDEVHQFHRUVFDUFLW\RIVLOWWRVDQGVL]HGFODVWV)LJ'DQG ( 7KHRSHQZRUNIDEULFVW\SLFDOO\UHFRUGFRPSOH[GLDJHQHWLFKLVWRULHVFKDUDFWHUL]HGE\
CE P
HOXYLDWLRQGLVVROXWLRQRISULPDU\PDWUL[LISUHVHQW )DFLHV% IROORZHGE\SUHFLSLWDWLRQRI VXFFHVVLYHFHPHQW JHQHUDWLRQV WKHVHLQWXUQPD\EHVHSDUDWHGIURPHDFKRWKHUE\HSLVRGHV
AC
RIGLVVROXWLRQ)LJ)
)DFLHVJURXSLQWXUQPDLQO\FRPSULVHVFODVWVXSSRUWHGEUHFFLDVZLWKDQ
LQWHUVWLWLDOPDWUL[W\SLFDOO\RIOLWKLFJUDLQVWRQHWRSDFNVWRQHWRZDFNHVWRQH)DFLHV$LQ 7DEOH ,QWKHVWXG\DUHDWKLVIDFLHVLVFRPSDUDWLYHO\UDUHDWOHDVWLQWKHRXWZHDWKHUHG OLWKLILHGSDUWVRIWKHVXFFHVVLRQVHHEHORZIRUGLVFXVVLRQ $QXQFRPPRQEXWGLVWLQFWIDFLHV DVVLJQHGWRWKLVFDWHJRU\FRPSULVHVJHQWOHOHQVHVW\SLFDOO\DIHZFHQWLPHWHUVLQWKLFNQHVVRI PRGHUDWHO\WRYHU\ZHOOVRUWHGILQHWRPHGLXP±SHEEO\EUHFFLDVZLWKDPDWUL[RIOLWKLF JUDLQVWRQHWRSDFNVWRQH)LJ$DQG%)DFLHV%LQ7DEOH 7KHVHEUHFFLDVW\SLFDOO\DUH
ACCEPTED MANUSCRIPT
LQWHUFDODWHGEHWZHHQEHGVHWVRIEUHFFLDVRIRWKHUIDFLHVW\SHVFI)LJ$DQG% ,QWKHWDOXV EUHFFLDVWKHGHJUHHRIOLWKLILFDWLRQDQGFHPHQWDWLRQLVKLJKO\YDULDEOHPDLQO\YHUWLFDOO\ EHWZHHQVWUDWDOSDFNDJHVFI)LJ EXWDOVRDORQJVWULNHWKHSDFNDJHV)LJ& )DXOWVDQGFDWDFODVLWHV
IP
T
7KHURDGFXWDORQJ6WUDGDSURYLQFLDOH&DPSRWRVWRSURYLGHVWKHEHVWRXWFURSRIWKH&HUDVROL
CR
IDXOWFI)LJVDQG 7KHUHDQRXWZHDWKHUHGIDXOWSODQHRQDOHYHORIXOWUDFDWDFODVLWHIDXOW
US
FRUH LVRYHUODLQE\DQLQWHUYDODIHZGHFLPHWHUVLQWKLFNQHVVRIFDFLULWHWKHFDFLULWHLQWXUQ VKDUSO\DEXWVWDOXVGHSRVLWVZLWKVWUDWLILFDWLRQGUDJJHGSDUDOOHOWRWKHIDXOWVXUIDFH)LJ'
AN
7KHIDXOWFRUHORFDOO\LVFRDWHGE\IORZVWRQHVHHEHORZ 7KHQDWXUDOH[SRVXUHVRIWKH &HUDVROLDQGWKH6DQ)UDQFRIDXOWFI)LJ UHVSHFWLYHO\DUHRXWZHDWKHUHGVFDUSVXSWR
M
DSSUR[LPDWHO\PLQKHLJKWWKDWVWDQGRXWIURPWKHOHVVUHVLVWDQWWDOXVLQWKHIDXOW
D
KDQJLQJZDOO)LJ %RWKWKHIDXOWIRRWZDOODQGWKHDGMDFHQWGDPDJH]RQHVDQGWDOXV
TE
VXFFHVVLRQVLQWKHKDQJLQJZDOODUHFURVVFXWE\LQFLVHGUDYLQHV)LJV(DQG) ,Q)RVVR6DQ)UDQFRORFDWLRQ)LJ DORQJWKHULJKWIODQNRIWKHUDYLQHWKHIDXOW
CE P
FRUHRIWKH$VVHUJLIDXOWDQGDWULDQJXODUGDPDJH]RQHLVGHOLPLWHGE\WKHPDLQ)4VXUIDFHDW WKHWRSDQGDUHODWLYHO\VWHHSHUGLSSLQJ5LHGHOVSOD\XQGHUQHDWK2UWQHUHWDO 7KH
AC
FDWDFODVLWHVLQWKLVRXWFURSDUHOD\HUHGSDUDOOHOWRWKH)4VXUIDFHDWWKHWRS)LJ( ,Q)RVVR /XPLWWLORFDWLRQ)LJ DVLPLODUWULDQJXODUGDPDJH]RQHDVGHVFULEHGDERYHLVH[SRVHG 7KHUHKRZHYHUOLWKLILFDWLRQLVZHDNDQGPRVWRIWKHIUDFWXUHGURFNLVDFDFLULWH)LJ) 6LPLODUO\OLWKLILFDWLRQRIWKHH[SRVHG3OHLVWRFHQHWDOXVDERYHWKH6DQ)UDQFRIDXOWLVSRRUDQG SDWFK\2QO\LQDQRXWFURSRIWKH)4VXUIDFHGLUHFWO\ULJKWRI)RVVR/XPLWWLGUDJJHGVFUHHLV GLDJHQHWLFDOO\ZHOGHGZLWKDIDXOWFDWDFODVLWH)LJ)
ACCEPTED MANUSCRIPT
7KHFRPSRQHQWVRIIDXOWFDWDFODVLWHVLQFOXGHD FDUERQDWHOLWKRFODVWVUDQJLQJLQVKDSHIURP DQJXODUWRZHOOURXQGHGE LQWUDFODVWVFRPPRQO\URXQGHGRIFDWDFODVLWHVF ORFDOO\DIHZ DQJXODUIUDJPHQWVRIFKHUWRISHEEOHWRVLOWVL]HDQGG DYDULDEOHIUDFWLRQRIXOWUDFDWDFODVWLF PDWUL[)DXOWFRUHVDUHFKDUDFWHUL]HGE\XOWUDFDWDFODVLWHDQGLQWUDFODVWVGHULYHGWKHUHRI7KH IDEULFVRIXOWUD FDWDFODVLWHVDUHPRUHRUOHVVRYHUSULQWHGE\GLDJHQHWLFUHFU\VWDOOL]DWLRQ
IP
T
PLFURVSDUWRSVHXGRVSDUFU\VWDOIDEULFV GLVVROXWLRQUHVXOWLQJLQYXJJ\DQGYHVLFXODU SRURVLW\DQGSUHFLSLWDWLRQRIFHPHQWRUWKRVSDU ,QWKHURDGFXWRXWFURSORFDWLRQ)LJV
CR
DQG' VSDUU\XOWUDFDWDFODVLWHVDORQJWKHIDXOWFRUHVKRZD FORXG\ IDEULFDVDUHVXOWRI
US
GLIIHUHQWGHJUHHVRIGLDJHQHWLFUHFU\VWDOOL]DWLRQLQWRPLFURDQGSVHXGRVSDU)LJ$ )XUWKHU IHDWXUHVRIGLDJHQHWLFRYHUSULQWLQFOXGHD LQWUDEUHFFLDWLRQUHODWHGWRGLVVROXWLRQIROORZHG
AN
E\SUHFLSLWDWLRQRIFDOFLWHFHPHQWE IUDFWXUDWLRQIROORZHGE\SUHFLSLWDWLRQRIFDOFLWHFHPHQW DQGF DQHWZRUNRIYHVLFXODURSHQPLFURWRPHJDSRUHVDQGYXJVXSWRDIHZPLOOLPHWHUVLQ
M
ZLGWK5HSHWLWLYHSKDVHVRIL PHWHRULFGLVVROXWLRQSRURVLW\JHQHUDWLRQDQGLQWUDEUHFFLDWLRQ
D
FKDQJLQJZLWKLL SKDVHVRIFHPHQWSUHFLSLWDWLRQDQGRUHSLVRGLFLQILOWUDWLRQRIOLPHPXGDUH
TE
UHFRUGHG)LJ$%&DQG' LQDGGLWLRQLLL IUDFWXUDWLRQGXULQJGLDJHQHWLFRYHUSULQWLV UHFRUGHGE\OD\HUVRIVKDUSO\FDSSHGFDOFLWHFU\VWDOVDQGRUE\IUDJPHQWVRIFDOFLWHFU\VWDOV
CE P
RUFU\VWDOFOXVWHUVULSSHGXSIURPWKHLUIRUPHUFDYLW\DQGHPEHGGHGZLWKLQXOWUDFDWDFODVLWH )LJ(DQG) ,Q6(0WKHXOWUDFDWDFODVLWHVVKRZPRUHRUOHVVLVRPHWULFDOJUDLQVL]HFDOFLWH
AC
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
ACCEPTED MANUSCRIPT
ILQDOO\H PHWHRULFGLVVROXWLRQDQGSURGXFWLRQRIYHVLFXODUSRUHVDQGYXJVWKDWFURVVFXWDOO ROGHUIDEULFV)LJ& 7KHFDWDFODVLWHDORQJWKHSROLVKHGVOLFNHQVLGHFRQVLVWVRIFODVWVZLWK RULJLQDOURFNIDEULFVHJIRVVLOV LQWUDFODVWVRIFDWDFODVLWHWRXOWUDFDWDFODVLWHDQGDQJXODU FKHUWIUDJPHQWVDGMDFHQWWRWKHVOLFNHQVLGHVXUIDFHFODVWVRIFKHUWDUHIUDJPHQWHGGRZQWR VLOWVL]HGIUDJPHQWV)LJ'
IP
T
7DOXVGHIRUPDWLRQ
CR
US
$VGHVFULEHGWKHGHJUHHRIWDOXVOLWKLILFDWLRQLVKLJKO\YDULDEOHERWKODWHUDOO\DQGYHUWLFDOO\ 7KHXQOLWKLILHGLQWHUYDOVRIVFUHHFI)LJ UHDFWHGRQIDXOWLQJE\TXDVLKRPRJHQHRXV
AN
GHIRUPDWLRQRQDVFDOHRIPHWHUVDQGEH\RQGWKLVGHIRUPDWLRQKRZHYHUZDVDFFRPSDQLHG E\LQVLWXIUDFWXUDWLRQRIWDOXVFODVWVVHHEHORZ $VREYLRXVIURP)LJXUHVDQGWKH
M
VXFFHVVLRQZDVGHIRUPHGE\IDXOWLQGXFHGGRZQWKURZLQWRIROGVZLWKVWURQJO\GLIIHUHQW
D
WUHQGVRID[HV,QXQLW%FI)LJ GHIRUPDWLRQRIWDOXVWKDWZDVXQOLWKLILHGZKHQ
TE
GRZQIDXOWHGEXWOLWKLILHGDIWHUGHIRUPDWLRQ LVUHFRUGHGE\DIDXOW]RQHDIHZPHWHUVLQZLGWK WKDWFRQVLVWVRILQGLVWLQFWO\OD\HUHGVFUHHZLWKLQWKHIDXOW]RQHQRLQVLWXIUDFWXUDWLRQRIVFUHH
CE P
FODVWVZDVVHHQ)LJ( %ULWWOHGHIRUPDWLRQLQWXUQRIWKHOLWKLILHGWDOXVLVLQGLFDWHGE\ IUDFWXUHVWKDWDUHORFDOO\FRDWHGE\VSHOHRWKHPIORZVWRQHV)LJ) ,Q)RVVR6DQ)UDQFR
AC
ORFDWLRQ)LJ WKHWDOXVGHSRVLWVVKRZDGUDJOLNHGHFUHDVHRIVWUDWDOGLSGLSVRIXSWR aQHDUWKH6DQ)UDQFRIDXOWOHVVHQE\FRQFDYHFXUYDWXUHWRGLSVRI±RYHUDSODQ YLHZGRZQVORSHGLVWDQFHRIDSSUR[LPDWHO\PHWHUV %RWKLQILHOGDQGWKLQVHFWLRQFODVWVRIOLPHVWRQHVDQGFKHUWWKDWZHUHIUDFWXUHGZKLOH HPEHGGHGLQWKHVFUHHDUHORFDOO\FRPPRQWRDEXQGDQW,QVLWXIUDFWXUHLVLQGLFDWHGE\ILWWHG FODVWERXQGDULHVWKDWPD\EHPRUHRUOHVVGLVORFDWHGUHODWLYHWRHDFKRWKHU1RXSSHUOLPLWRI FODVWVL]HZLWKUHVSHFWWRIUDFWXUDWLRQZDVREVHUYHGFODVWVXSWRDWOHDVWFREEOHVL]HZHUH REVHUYHGWKDWDUHULGGOHGZLWKIUDFWXUHV&UDFNHGFODVWVZHUHPRVWFRPPRQLQVWUDWDDQG
ACCEPTED MANUSCRIPT
VWUDWDOSDFNDJHVRISRRUO\WRPRGHUDWHO\VRUWHGPHGLXPWRFRDUVHSHEEOHVZLWKRSHQZRUN IDEULF)LJ$±) ,QVWUDWDRIILQHSHEEOHVZLWKDVDQG\PDWUL[DQGLQVWUDWDZLWKDPDWUL[RI OLWKLFZDFNHVWRQHWRSDFNVWRQHFUDFNHGFODVWVDUHPRUHUDUH,QPDQ\FDVHVUHOLFWVRIDPDWUL[ RIOLPHPXGVWRQHWROLWKLFZDFNHVWRQHSDFNVWRQHDUHSUHVHQWWKDWLQGLFDWHWKDWFODVW IUDFWXUDWLRQDIIHFWHGDOVRWKHVHIDEULFV)LJ$%DQG& &ODVWIUDFWXUDWLRQW\SLFDOO\ZDV
IP
T
VXFFHHGHGE\GLVVROXWLRQRIPDWUL[DQGFODVWVDQGRUE\JURZWKRIFDOFLWHFHPHQWV)LJ% &DQG' $IXUWKHUIHDWXUHLQGLFDWLYHRISRVWGHSRVLWLRQDORYHUSULQWRIVHGLPHQWIDEULF
CR
LQFOXGHVSDWFKHVRIGHQVHO\SDFNHGFODVWIDEULFVZLWKDQHVWLPDWHGFODVWFRQWHQWXSWR
US
DFFRUGLQJWRYLVXDOHVWLPDWRUVLQ)OJHO LQVRPHFDVHVGHQVHSDFNLQJLVFRQILQHGWR
FODVWSLOODUV FRPSRVHGRIFODVWVVXEYHUWLFDOO\VWDFNHGXSRQHDFKRWKHUDORQJSODQDUFRQWDFWV
AN
)LJ(DQG) :HREVHUYHGQRFOHDUFXWDVVRFLDWLRQRIFODVWFUDFNLQJZLWKLQFUHDVLQJ YLFLQLW\WRIDXOWV6LPLODUO\ZLWKLQDVWUDWXPWKHYHUWLFDODQGODWHUDOGLVWULEXWLRQRIFUDFNHG
M
FODVWVLVQRWVKDUSO\GHOLPLWHG
D
TE
)ORZVWRQHVDQGVWDEOHLVRWRSHGDWD
CE P
7KHDUWLILFLDOO\H[SRVHGVXUIDFHRIWKH&HUDVROLIDXOWFRUHLVORFDOO\FRDWHGZLWKVSHOHRWKHP IORZVWRQH7KHIORZVWRQHSUHFLSLWDWHGGLUHFWO\RQWKHXOWUDFDWDFODVLWHRIWKHIDXOWFRUH
AC
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
ACCEPTED MANUSCRIPT
FRDWHGIUDFWXUHWKHFDOFLWHFU\VWDOVVKRZSURJUHVVLYHGHIRUPDWLRQWZLQQLQJDQGILQDOO\ FDWDFODVLVDORQJDOHYHORIEULWWOHIUDFWXUH)LJ(DQG) $WRWDORIPHDVXUHPHQWVRIVWDEOHLVRWRSHVRIR[\JHQDQGFDUERQRIOLWKRFODVWV EHGURFN LQWDOXVEUHFFLDVIDXOWXOWUDFDWDFODVLWHVFHPHQWVDQGVSHOHRWKHPIORZVWRQHV UHYHDOHGDFOHDUFXWFRYDULDWLRQERWKRIR[\JHQDQGFDUERQWRZDUGVPRUHQHJDWLYHYDOXHV
IP
T
)LJ 7KHLVRWRSHYDOXHVIRUWKHOLWKRFODVWVDVZHOODVIRUWKHFHPHQWVDQGWKHIORZVWRQHV SORWZLWKLQZHOOGHILQHGILHOGVFRQYHUVHO\WKHXOWUDFDWDFODVLWHVVFDWWHURYHUDZLGHUDQJHRI
CR
YDOXHV1HYHUWKHOHVVDOVRWKHYDOXHVRIWKHXOWUDFDWDFODVLWHVSORWDORQJDFRYDULDQFHRIR[\JHQ
US
DQGFDUERQ
AN
1XPHULFDOGDWLQJ
M
)RUWKHVRLOOHYHOVLQWHUFDODWHGLQWRWKHWDOXVVXFFHVVLRQ)LJ WKHPRVWFRQVLVWHQWDJHVZHUH
D
GHULYHGIURPWKHORZHVWH[SRVHGWKLFNSHDW\VRLOWKDWLVGHIRUPHGLQWRDUHFXPEHQWIROG
TE
ORZHUVRLO LQ7DEOH)LJ$ 7KLVOHYHOYDULHVIURP±FPLQWKLFNQHVVDQGFRQVLVWV RIGDUNEURZQWREODFNLVKFRPSDFWSHDW\PDWHULDOSUDFWLFDOO\GHYRLGRIFDUERQDWHURFNFODVWV
CE P
)RUWKLVOHYHOWKUHHVDPSOHVWDNHQDORQJVWULNH\LHOGHGDPD[LPXPDJHUDQJHEHWZHHQaND WRaNDFDO%3VHH7DEOHIRUSUHFLVHILJXUHV )LJ$DQG% %HFDXVHPRVWRIWKH
AC
UDGLRFDUERQDJHVFHQWHUDURXQGNDIRUVDNHRIEUHYLW\WKLVVRLOOHYHOLVEULHIO\GHVLJQDWHG DV NDVRLO LQWKHIROORZLQJ1HDUWKH6(HQGRIH[SRVXUHWKH NDVRLO DQGLWV HPEHGGLQJVFUHHLVGHIRUPHGLQWRDQDUUD\RISURWUXVLRQLQYROXWLRQVWUXFWXUHVDQGDSLSHOLNH VWUXFWXUHFRPSRVHGRIVFUHHFURVVFXWVWKHVRLO)LJ& )RUWKHFRPSDUDWLYHO\WKLQ XSSHUVRLOV LQWHUFDODWHGEHWZHHQXQLW$DQG% UHVSHFWLYHO\)LJVDQG' QXPHULFDODJHVVFDWWHUHGVWURQJO\aWRaNDFDO%3 ERWKEHWZHHQVRLOOHYHOVDQGDPRQJVXEVDPSOHVRIWKHVDPHOHYHO7DEOH)LJVDQG' ,QWKHVHOHYHOVLOOXYLDWLRQRI\RXQJHUKXPLFDFLGVHJIURPWKHVRLOFRYHUHGSUHVHQWVORSH
ACCEPTED MANUSCRIPT
VXUIDFHUHPRYHGLQURDGFXWH[FDYDWLRQ PD\KDYHFDXVHGDGHFUHDVHLQDJH7KHKLJKHUDJHV GHWHUPLQHGIRUWKHXSSHUVRLOVWKXVDUHFRQVLGHUHGPRUHFRUUHFWWKDQWKH\RXQJHURXWOLHUDJHV 0RUHFRQVLVWHQWDJHVRIaNDWRaNDFDO%3LQWXUQZHUHGHULYHGIURPWKH XSSHUVRLOV LQWKH6(SDUWRIH[SRVXUH)LJ7DEOH 7KHSDFNDJHRIXSSHUVRLOVWKXVSUREDEO\ DFFXPXODWHGEHWZHHQDSSUR[LPDWHO\FDOND%3$VFKHPDWLFVXPPDU\RIWKHURDG
IP
T
RXWFURSDW&HUDVROLORFDWLRQ)LJ DQGWKHUDGLRFDUERQDJHVLVSUHVHQWHGLQ)LJ
CR
,QWHUSUHWDWLRQ
US
7DOXVIDFLHVDQGGLDJHQHVLV
AN
$VPHQWLRQHGWKHWDOXVVXFFHVVLRQLVFKDUDFWHUL]HGE\FODVWVXSSRUWHGIDEULFVPRVW
M
FRPPRQO\RIRSHQZRUNW\SH2SHQZRUNIDEULFVGHYRLGRIPDWUL[SUREDEO\DFFXPXODWHGIURP
D
JUDLQIORZVWRK\SHUFRQFHQWUDWHGIOXLGIORZV)LJV$)DQG$DQG%)DFLHV$7DEOH
TE
6LPLODUVHGLPHQWIDEULFVZLWKUHPQDQWVDQGSDWFKHVRILQWHUVWLWLDOPDWUL[LQFRQWUDVWDUHOHVV VWUDLJKWIRUZDUGWRLQWHUSUHW)LJ$DQG%)DFLHV%7DEOH 7KHPDWUL[UHOLFWVW\SLFDOO\
CE P
DUHOLPHPXGVWRQHWROLWKLFZDFNHVWRQH,QWKH$OSVVLPLODUPDWULFHVDOEHLWLQPRVWFDVHV SRUHILOOLQJDUHZLGHVSUHDGLQWDOXVVWUDWDDFFXPXODWHGIURPFRKHVLYHGHEULVIORZV6DQGHUV
AC
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
ACCEPTED MANUSCRIPT
DFFXPXODWHGIURPFRKHVLYHGHEULVIORZVWKDWZHUHSRVWGHSRVLWLRQDOO\RYHUSULQWHG$V PHQWLRQHGLQWKHVWXG\DUHDODUJHJURXQGKXJJLQJVQRZDYDODQFKHVDUHFRPPRQDQGDUH UHFRUGHGE\GLYHUVHIHDWXUHVRIHURVLRQDQGGRZQVORSHWUDQVSRUWRIVFUHHDQGVRLO$VHYLGHQW DVWKHVHIHDWXUHVDUHDWVXUIDFHKRZHYHULQPRVWFDVHVLWLVGLIILFXOWWRFOHDUO\LGHQWLI\IDFLHV RUIDEULFVUHODWHGWRVQRZDYDODQFKHVLQIRVVLOWDOXVVXFFHVVLRQV6DQGHUVHWDO
IP
T
6DQGHUV WKLVKROGVDOVRIRUWKH*DURIDQREUHFFLD,QEULHIWKH*DURIDQRVXFFHVVLRQ DFFXPXODWHGPDLQO\IURPJUDLQIORZVFRKHVLYHGHEULVIORZVDQGIURPIOXLGIORZVXSRQ
CR
HSKHPHUDOVXUIDFHUXQRII6QRZUHODWHGSURFHVVHVSUREDEO\ZHUHDFWLYHWRREXWFRXOGQRWEH
US
SRVLWLYHO\LGHQWLILHG
7KHGLDJHQHVLVRIWKHWDOXVEUHFFLDVLVFKDUDFWHUL]HGE\PDWUL[HOXYLDWLRQDQG
AN
GLVVROXWLRQDQGSKDVHVRIFHPHQWSUHFLSLWDWLRQFKDQJLQJZLWKLQWHUPLWWHQWGLVVROXWLRQDQGRU IUDFWXUDWLRQFKDQJHVLQFOLPDWHDQGRULQWHFWRQLFDFWLYLW\DQGJURXQGZDWHUSHUFRODWLRQ
M
SHUKDSVXQGHUOLHWKHVHFRPSOH[GLDJHQHWLFVXFFHVVLRQV7KHFRYDULDQWVWDEOHLVRWRSHUDWLRVRI
D
R[\JHQDQGFDUERQIURPWDOXVOLWKRFODVWVWRLQWHUVWLWLDOFHPHQWVDQGIORZVWRQHFRDWLQJVRQ
TE
IUDFWXUHVLQGLFDWHWKDWGLDJHQHVLVZDVGHWHUPLQHGE\PHWHRULFZDWHUV$WOHDVWWKHODUJHVWSDUW RIFDOFLWHFDUERQWKXVSUREDEO\FRPHVIURP+&2LQPHWHRULFJURXQGZDWHUVZKHUHDVURFN
CE P
GHULYHGFDUERQFRQWULEXWHGRQO\DQLQVLJQLILFDQWIUDFWLRQ,QFRQWUDVWWRWKHXOWUDFDWDFODVLWHV VHHDERYH WKLVLQGLFDWHVWKDWWKHGLDJHQHWLFV\VWHPLQWKHKLJKO\SHUPHDEOHVFUHHVORSH
AC
VXFFHVVLRQV±PRVWO\RSHQZRUNIDEULFV±ZDVRSHQWRDQ\FKDQJHLQPHWHRULFGLDJHQHWLF FRQGLWLRQV
)DXOWVDQGFDWDFODVLWHV $VPHQWLRQHGWKHWUDFHRIHDFKIDXOWPHQWLRQHGKHUHLQFI)LJ LVFURVVHGE\HURVLRQDO UDYLQHVDQGWKHUDYLQHIODQNVDUHJUDGHGWRWKHWKDOZHJV)DXOWGRZQWKURZWKXVKDVFHDVHGIRU DQXQGHWHUPLQHGLQWHUYDORIWLPH7KHORZIRRWZDOOVFDUSVLQWXUQUHVXOWIURPGLIIHUHQWLDO
ACCEPTED MANUSCRIPT
HURVLRQRIEHWWHUOLWKLILHGOLPHVWRQHVDQGIDXOWFRUHVUHODWLYHWRWKHGRZQIDXOWHGKDQJLQJZDOO )LJVDQG FI)XEHOOLHWDO%XEHFNHWDO.DVWHOLFHWDO ,WLV XQNQRZQZKHWKHUWKHIDXOWIRRWZDOOVKDGEHHQFRYHUHGE\VFUHHZKLOHIDXOWLQJZDVDFWLYH %HFDXVHQRUPDOIDXOWLQJJHQHUDWHVKDQJLQJZDOODFFRPPRGDWLRQVSDFHZHVXVSHFWWKDWVFUHH FRYHUVWHQGWREHWKLQRUDEVHQWRQIRRWZDOOVDWOHDVWIRUIDXOWVRIVL]HDEOHWKURZWKDWSURYLGH
IP
T
DPSOHDFFRPPRGDWLRQVSDFHEXWVHHGLVFXVVLRQEHORZ 6ORSHVRIFRPSHWHQWURFNVVWULYHWR JUDGHWRDGLSVLPLODUWRWKDWRIWKHSUR[LPDOVHJPHQWRIVFUHHVORSHVHJ6XPPHUILHOG
CR
6ORSHHURVLRQVXEVHTXHQWWRIDXOWLQJDQGWDOXVDFFXPXODWLRQWKXVWHQGVWRSUHVHUYH
US
RYHUDOOVORSHGLS)LJ VDYHDSRWHQWLDOVFDUSDORQJWKHIDXOWFRUHGXHWRGLIIHUHQWLDO HURVLRQ)LJ VHH)XEHOOLHWDO.DVWHOLFHWDO $VLPLODUVORSHGLSRIIDXOW
AN
IRRWZDOOVDQGWDOXVRQKDQJLQJZDOOVLVREVHUYHGQRWRQO\IRUWKHVWXG\DUHDEXWDOVRDORQJ PRUHVRXWKHUQVHFWRUVRIWKHGRUPDQW$VVHUJLIDXOWDQGVLPLODUIDXOWWDOXVHQVHPEOHVLQWKH
M
&HQWUDO$SHQQLQHV7KHGHIRUPDWLRQRIWKHWDOXVLQWKHURDGFXWORFDWLRQ)LJ LQWRIROGV
D
RIURXJKO\UHFWDQJXODUWUHQGLQJUHODWLYHWRHDFKRWKHUIROGD[LV$DQG%LQ)LJVHHDOVR
TE
)LJ LQSULQFLSOHPD\EHH[SODLQHGE\DVLQJOHSXOVHRIGRZQIDXOWLQJ$OWHUQDWLYHO\WKH
V\QFOLQHDQWLFOLQHHQVHPEOH DQGDVVRFLDWHGVRLOOHYHOV)LJ$ IRUPHGDIWHUWKHUHFXPEHQW
CE P
IROGIROGD[LV$)LJ RIWKHROGHU NDVRLO )LJ% EHFDXVHRIWKHODWHUDOVHSDUDWLRQ RIERWKIROGVWUXFWXUHVDQXQHTXLYRFDOGLVWLQFWLRQLVKDUGO\SRVVLEOH,QFRQVHTXHQFHWKH
AC
UDGLRFDUERQDJHVRIVRLOVLQGLFDWHWKDWGHIRUPDWLRQRIWKHWDOXVVXFFHVVLRQWRRNSODFHHLWKHU D DIWHUa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
ACCEPTED MANUSCRIPT
GRZQWKURZDORQJWKHIDXOWLQWKHEHGURFNXQGHUQHDWKFI)LJ WKHODWHUDOYDULDWLRQRI GRZQWKURZSUREDEO\UHVXOWIURPJUDYLWDWLRQDOGHIRUPDWLRQHJFRVHLVPLFVOLGLQJVOXPSLQJ FRQILQHGWRWKHWDOXVVXFFHVVLRQ $ORQJWKHIDXOWFRUHVWKHFDOFLWHFHPHQWHGGLVVROXWLRQEUHFFLDVFRPELQHGZLWKVKDUSO\ FDSSHGSRUHOLQLQJFHPHQWVDQGUDIWVRIXSURRWHGFU\VWDOVDQGFU\VWDOFOXVWHUVRIFHPHQW
IP
T
HPEHGGHGZLWKLQXOWUDFDWDFODVLWHUHFRUGLQFUHPHQWVRIIDXOWGRZQWKURZ)LJ$) 6DQGHUV HWDO 7KHXOWUDFDWDFODVWLFIDXOWFRUHVSUREDEO\IRUPHGLQDGHSWKRIaNPFI
CR
$JRVWDDQG.LUVFKQHUVHHDOVR9DORURVRHWDO LHWKHSUHVHQW)4FRQWDFWLQ
US
RXWFURSLVQRWWKHORFDWLRQRIXOWUDFDWDFODVLWHIRUPDWLRQ5DSLGGLVSODFHPHQWXQGHUKLJK QRUPDOVWUHVVLVVXSSRUWHGE\FKHUWSXOYHUL]HGDWOHDVWGRZQWRVLOWVL]HGIUDJPHQWVZKLOH
AN
HPEHGGHGLQFDUERQDWHJRXJHFI)LJ( 7KHSUHVHQW)4FRQWDFWWKXVUHFRUGVWHUPLQDORU UHDFWLYDWHGIDXOWDFWLYLW\SOXVDQXQNQRZQDPRXQWRIHURVLRQDOVORSHVXUIDFHORZHULQJ)LJ
M
7KHJRRGOLWKLILFDWLRQRIWKHXOWUDFDWDFODVWLFIDXOWFRUHVDQGWKHFRYDULDWLRQRIWKHLU
D
R[\JHQDQGFDUERQLVRWRSHYDOXHV)LJ UHVXOWIURPLQWHUDFWLRQRIFDUERQDWHOLWKLFJRXJH
TE
ZLWKPHWHRULFZDWHUVSHUFRODWLQJDORQJWKHORZSHUPHDEOHXOWUDFDWDFODVWLFOHYHOVFI&HOORHW DO*KLVHWWLHWDO$JRVWDDQG.LUVFKQHU0LFDUHOOLHWDO%LOOL
CE P
7KHZLGHEXWFRYDULDQWVFDWWHURILVRWRSHYDOXHVPRVWSUREDEO\UHVXOWVIURPORFDO GLIIHUHQFHVLQURFNEXIIHULQJ/LWKLILFDWLRQE\PLFURQVFDOHGLVVROXWLRQIROORZHGE\
AC
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
ACCEPTED MANUSCRIPT
6HGLPHQWIDEULFVLQGLFDWLYHRIGHIRUPDWLRQ 7DOXVEUHFFLDV 7KHOLWKRFODVWVWKDWZHUHFUDFNHGZKLOHHPEHGGHGLQWKHVHGLPHQW±W\SLFDOO\LQRSHQZRUN
IP
T
IDEULFV±DUHLQWHUSUHWHGDVDUHVXOWRIFRVHLVPLFGHIRUPDWLRQ,QFRQWUDVWWR VWUDLQHGSHEEOHV DVXVHGLQPLFURVWUXFWXUDODQDO\VLVRIFRDUVHJUDLQHGGHSRVLWVKRZHYHUWKHFUDFNHGFODVWV
CR
GHVFULEHGKHUHLQDUHGHYRLGRIVWULDWLRQVROXWLRQSLWWLQJDQGVW\OROLWL]DWLRQFI0F(ZHQ
US
+LSSRO\WH6LPyQ%DXYHHWDO 1XPHURXVREVHUYDWLRQVLQWDOXVDQG DOOXYLDOIDQVXFFHVVLRQVXSWRPRUHWKDQPHWHUVLQWKLFNQHVVLQGLFDWHWKDWPHUHVHGLPHQW
AN
RYHUEXUGHQLVQRWVXIILFLHQWWRLQGXFHZLGHVSUHDGFODVWFUDFNLQJHJ6DQGHUV 7XLW]HWDO ORDGLQJE\JODFLDOLFHVWUHDPVRUFRVHLVPLFDFFHOHUDWLRQLQFRQWUDVWDUH
M
GRFXPHQWHGDQGPRGHOHGWRLQGXFHFODVWIUDFWXUDWLRQHJ(LGHOPDQDQG5HFKHV
D
0H\HUHWDO7XLW]HWDO ,QSHEEO\GHSRVLWVWKDWZHUHQRWRYHUULGGHQE\D
TE
JODFLHUFUDFNHGFODVWVDUHPRVWVWUDLJKWIRUZDUGO\LQWHUSUHWHGDVDSURGXFWRIWHFWRQLF GHIRUPDWLRQHJ'XWRXUHWDO &RVHLVPLFGHIRUPDWLRQDIIHFWVFODVWVYLD ORFDOL]HG
CE P
VLPSOHVKHDUE\GLIIHUHQWLDODFFHOHUDWLRQFRPELQHGZLWK JHQHUDWLRQRIVWURQJO\ IOXFWXDWLQJKLJKXQLD[LDOVWUHVVFRQFHQWUDWHGDWSRLQWFRQWDFWV7XLW]HWDOFI
AC
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
ACCEPTED MANUSCRIPT
7KHHYLGHQFHIRUGLVWLQFWSXOVHVRIFODVWIUDFWXUDWLRQDQGIRULQWHUPLWWHQWIUDFWXUDWLRQRIFDOFLWH FHPHQWVDQGVSHOHRWKHPVUHFRUGVPXOWLSKDVHGHIRUPDWLRQRIWKHWDOXVVXFFHVVLRQ,QFRQWUDVW WRWKHHYLGHQFHIRUPXOWLSKDVHGHIRUPDWLRQLQWKHIDXOWFRUHVKRZHYHUVPDOOVFDOH GHIRUPDWLRQRIWKHWDOXVEUHFFLDQRWQHFHVVDULO\ZDVWLHGWRDFWLYHIDXOWVOLSDWVLWHFUDFNLQJRI FODVWVDQGIUDFWXUDWLRQRIFHPHQWVPD\DOVRUHVXOWIURPFRVHLVPLFVKDNLQJIURPVWURQJ
IP
T
HDUWKTXDNHVHSLFHQWHUHGLQWKHHQYLURQV
CR
NDVRLO
US
7KHXSZDUGSURWUXVLRQVRIVFUHHDQGWKHDVVRFLDWHGLQYROXWLRQVRIWKHNDVRLODVZHOODV
AN
WKHSLSHOLNHVWUXFWXUHRIVFUHHWKDWFURVVFXWVWKHVRLOOHYHO)LJ& DUHLQWHUSUHWHGDV VWUXFWXUHVUHVXOWLQJIURPOLTXHIDFWLRQDQGIOXLGL]DWLRQ/LTXHIDFWLRQLVGHILQHGDVDWUDQVLHQW
M
FKDQJHRIDUHVWLQJJUDQXODUPDWHULDOLQWRDOLTXHILHGVWDWH'L)HOLFH DQGLVDFRPPRQ
D
SKHQRPHQRQGXULQJHDUWKTXDNHVRIPDJQLWXGH0VFD*DOOL ,QOLTXHIDFWLRQWKH
TE
GLIIHUHQWLQHUWLDRIVHGLPHQWSDUWLFOHVDQGSRUHIOXLGXSRQFRVHLVPLFDFFHOHUDWLRQUHVXOWVLQD EUHDNXSRIWKHSDUWLFOHIDEULFVXFKWKDWJUDLQVRUJUDLQFROOHFWLYHVDUHVXSSRUWHGE\IOXLGIRUD
CE P
IHZPRPHQWV'L)HOLFHFI*DOOLHWDO+XUVWHWDO 8SRQOLTXHIDFWLRQRI WKHVFUHHWKHVFUHHSOXVWKHRYHUO\LQJUHODWLYHO\LPSHUPHDEOHVRLO±LPSHGLQJSRUHIOXLG
AC
HVFDSHGHIRUPHGLQWRDQDUUD\RIVFUHHSURWUXVLRQVDQGVRLOLQYROXWLRQVFI2ZHQ )OXLGL]DWLRQLQFRQWUDVWLVGHILQHGDVXSZDUGWUDQVSRUWRIJUDLQVRUJUDLQFROOHFWLYHV VXVSHQGHGZLWKLQDQHVFDSLQJIOXLG7KHSLSHRIVFUHHWKDWFURVVFXWVWKHVRLOOHYHOWKXVLV LQWHUSUHWHGDVDIOXLGL]DWLRQIHDWXUHFI'XUDQWLDQG+XUVW'L)HOLFH+XUVWHWDO 5RVVHWDO ,QDUHDVVXEMHFWWRVHLVPLFVKDNLQJVHGLPHQWIDEULFVLQGLFDWLYHRI IOXLGL]DWLRQDQGRUOLTXHIDFWLRQFRPPRQO\DUHDVVRFLDWHGZLWKHDFKRWKHU2ZHQ 0RKLQGUDDQG%DJDWL2EHUPHLHU-ROO\DQG/RQHUJDQ0H\HUHWDO +XUVWHWDO
ACCEPTED MANUSCRIPT
'LVFXVVLRQ ,IWKHSUHVHQWFRQWDFWRIWKHXOWUDFDWDFODVWLFIDXOWFRUHVIRUPHGXQGHUDWOHDVWNPRI RYHUEXUGHQVHHDERYH ZLWKWDOXVFRUUHVSRQGHGWRWKHRULJLQDOORFXVRIXOWUDFDWDFODVLWH
IP
T
IRUPDWLRQWKLVZRXOGLPSO\WKDWWKHWDOXVVXFFHVVLRQVKRXOGEHDWOHDVWVRPHPLQ WKLFNQHVVRUPRUHLQGHHGKRZHYHUWKHSUHVHUYHGVXFFHVVLRQLVXSWRDIHZWHQVRIPHWHUVLQ
CR
WKLFNQHVVRQO\VHHPDSVKHHW*UDQ6DVVR $VXEVWDQWLDOGLVFUHSDQF\EHWZHHQYHUWLFDO
US
WKURZRIVWUDWLJUDSKLFPDUNHUOHYHOVLQWKH0HVR&HQR]RLFVXFFHVVLRQaNPPD[LPXP WKURZDORQJWKH$VVHUJLIDXOW DQGDPXFKVPDOOHUWKLFNQHVVRIWDOXVVXFFHVVLRQVFRPELQHG
AN
ZLWKWKHIDFWWKDWXOWUDFDWDFODVWLFIDXOWFRUHVDUHLQGLUHFWFRQWDFWZLWKWDOXVEUHFFLDV QHFHVVLWDWHDQRYHUDOOGHJUDGDWLRQRIODQGVXUIDFHHLWKHUZKLOHEHLQJXSOLIWHGRUVXEVHTXHQW
M
WRXSOLIWEXWEHIRUHWKHODWH3OHLVWRFHQHFI&HQWDPRUHDQG1LVLR*DODGLQLHWDO
D
)LJ $VPHQWLRQHGVLJQLILFDQWXSOLIWDQGQRUPDOIDXOWLQJRIWKHFHQWUDO$SHQQLQHV
TE
VWDUWHGGXULQJWKH3OLRFHQH,IDOORIWKHDFFRPPRGDWLRQVSDFHJHQHUDWHGE\GRZQWKURZDORQJ WKH$VVHUJLIDXOWKDGEHHQILOOHGE\VHGLPHQWD3OLRFHQHWRXSSHU3OHLVWRFHQHVXFFHVVLRQXSWR
CE P
NPLQWKLFNQHVVVKRXOGEHSUHVHQWDQGWKHORZHUSDUWVRIWKHSUHVHUYHGVXFFHVVLRQVKRXOGEH RI3OLRFHQHRUHDUO\3OHLVWRFHQHLQVWHDGRIODWH3OHLVWRFHQHDJHUHVSHFWLYHO\%HFDXVHWKH
AC
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
ACCEPTED MANUSCRIPT
,QFRQWUDVWWRPDQ\RWKHUVHGLPHQWDU\UHFRUGVVFUHHVORSHVDFFXPXODWHRQODQG VXUIDFHDQGSURYLGHHDVLO\DFFHVVLEOHUHFRUGVRIQHRWHFWRQLFDFWLYLW\,QPRXQWDLQUDQJHVWKDW ZHUHRYHUULGGHQE\JODFLDOLFHVWUHDPVVXFKDVWKH$OSVKRZHYHUORDGLQJRISUHJODFLDO VXFFHVVLRQVE\LFHRYHUEXUGHQDGGVPXFKXQFHUWDLQW\WRWKHLQWHUSUHWDWLRQRIGHIRUPDWLRQ VWUXFWXUHVVHHHJ$PSIHUHU2UWQHU&RVWDQWLQLDQG2UWQHU ,IDSSOLHG
IP
T
ZLWKGXHFDXWLRQKRZHYHUWKHVWXG\RIDUHDVZLWKKLJKUDWHVRIVWUXFWXUDOGHIRUPDWLRQEXW OLPLWHGRXWUHDFKRIJODFLHUVVXFKDVWKHFHQWUDO$SHQQLQHVPD\VXSSRUWWKHGLVWLQFWLRQRI
CR
IHDWXUHVLQGXFHGE\QHRWHFWRQLVPIURPIHDWXUHVLPSDUWHGE\JODFLDOORDGLQJ7DEOH
US
6DQGHUV $OORIWKHGLDJHQHWLFFU\VWDOOLVDWHVREVHUYHGIRUWKHSUHVHQWVWXG\±SRUH ILOOLQJFHPHQWVIORZVWRQHVRQIUDFWXUHZDOOVDQGULSSHGXSUDIWVRIFHPHQWRUIORZVWRQHLQ
AN
IDXOWFDWDFODVLWHV±VKRXOGEHGDWDEOHE\WKH87KGLVHTXLOLEULXPPHWKRGFI*H\K ,QWKH$OSVWKH87KPHWKRGZDVVXFFHVVIXOO\DSSOLHGWRDJHGDWHLQWHUVWLWLDOFHPHQWV
M
RIWDOXVEUHFFLDVDQGWRDQWHTXDPGDWHFDWDVWURSKLFURFNVOLGHV2VWHUPDQQHWDO
D
6DQGHUVHWDODE6DQGHUVDQG2VWHUPDQQ2VWHUPDQQDQG6DQGHUV
TE
2VWHUPDQQHWDO 7KLVRSHQVXSWKHQHZSRVVLELOLW\WRGHULYHDJHFRQVWUDLQWVRQWDOXV
CE P
IDXOWLQJDQGIUDFWXUDWLRQDVZHOODVRQODWHSKDVHVRIIDXOWDFWLYLW\
AC
&RQFOXVLRQV
,QWKH*UDQ6DVVRDUHDRIWKHFHQWUDO$SHQQLQHVZHVWXGLHGDZHOOH[SRVHGIRVVLOWDOXV VXFFHVVLRQDQGDVVRFLDWHGQRUPDOIDXOWV*HRPRUSKRORJLFDOHYLGHQFHLQGLFDWHVWKDWIDXOWLQJ ZDVGRUPDQWVLQFHDORQJHULQWHUYDORIWLPH5DGLRFDUERQDJHVRILQWHUFDODWHGVRLOVVKRZWKDW WKHXSSHUH[SRVHG SDUWRIWKHWDOXVVXFFHVVLRQDFFXPXODWHGGXULQJWKHODWH4XDWHUQDU\± FDOND%3WRFDOND%3
ACCEPTED MANUSCRIPT
7KHQRUPDOIDXOWVWKDWDEXWWKHGRZQIDXOWHGWDOXVVKRZXOWUDFDWDFODVWLFIDXOWFRUHV,QWKH XOWUDFDWDFODVLWHVODWHSKDVHVRILQFUHPHQWDOGRZQWKURZDUHUHFRUGHGE\L LQWUDFODVWVRI XOWUDFDWDFODVLWHLL SRUHILOOLQJFDOFLWHFHPHQWVVKDUSO\FDSSHGDORQJGLVFUHWHOHYHOVDQG RYHUODLQE\LLL XOWUDFDWDFODVLWHZLWKIORDWLQJFU\VWDOVDQGFU\VWDOFOXVWHUVRIIRUPHUO\SRUH OLQLQJFHPHQWVWKDWZHUHXSURRWHGGXULQJIDXOWUHDFWLYDWLRQ
IP
T
7KHWDOXVFRPSULVHVFODVWVXSSRUWHGSHEEO\GHSRVLWVRIJUDLQIORZVFRKHVLYHGHEULVIORZV
CR
DQGHSKHPHUDOIOXLGIORZVVQRZUHODWHGSURFHVVHVFRXOGQRWEHSRVLWLYHO\LGHQWLILHG
US
'LDJHQHWLFVXFFHVVLRQVDUHFRPSOH[WKH\DUHFKDUDFWHUL]HGE\HOXYLDWLRQGLVVROXWLRQRI PDWUL[FRUURVLRQRIOLWKRFODVWVSUHFLSLWDWLRQRIGLIIHUHQW JHQHUDWLRQV RIFDOFLWHFHPHQWVLQ
AN
PDQ\FDVHVVHSDUDWHGE\LQWHUPLWWHQWGLVVROXWLRQ DQGODWHVWDJHVROXWLRQSRURVLW\'LDJHQHVLV RYHUODSSHGLQWLPHZLWKWDOXVGHIRUPDWLRQ
M
D
([FHSWIRUWZRUDYLQHVWKHVRLOFRYHUHGSUHVHQWWRSVXUIDFHRIWKHGRZQIDXOWHGWDOXV
TE
VXFFHVVLRQLVUHODWLYHO\VPRRWKDQGEHOLHVDFRPSOLFDWHGGHIRUPDWLRQXQGHUQHDWK,QD URDGFXWWKHVXFFHVVLRQGLVSOD\VWZRW\SHVRIGHFDPHWHUVFDOHIROGVL DUHFXPEHQWIROGZLWK
CE P
DQD[LVVXESDUDOOHOWRGHSRVLWLRQDOVWULNHDQGVXESDUDOOHOWRIDXOWVWULNH DQGLL DQDQWLFOLQH
AC
V\QFOLQHSDLUZLWKD[HVWKDWUDNHURXJKO\SHUSHQGLFXODUWRWKHIDXOWSODQH
$VLGHRIIDXOWUHODWHGGRZQWKURZGUDJDQGIROGLQJWKHWDOXVGHSRVLWVDUHFXWE\ FRQMXJDWHMRLQWVDQGIDXOWV2QHIDXOWLVFRDWHGE\VSHOHRWKHPIORZVWRQHZKLFKLQWXUQZDV LQYROYHGLQIUDFWXUDWLRQ,QDGGLWLRQOLWKRFODVWVWKDWZHUHFUDFNHGZKLOHHPEHGGHGLQWKH VHGLPHQWDUHDEXQGDQWDQGSUREDEO\UHVXOWIURPFRVHLVPLFGHIRUPDWLRQ
ACCEPTED MANUSCRIPT
7KHMX[WDSRVLWLRQRIXOWUDFDWDFODVLWHVWKDWSUREDEO\IRUPHGLQNPGHSWKZLWKWDOXV EUHFFLDVLQGLFDWHVWKDWWKHSUHVHUYHGIDXOWWDOXVHQVHPEOHUHFRUGVRQO\WKHWHUPLQDOSKDVHRI WRWDOGRZQIDXOWLQJ 6WDEOHLVRWRSHVRIR[\JHQDQGFDUERQRIXOWUDFDWDFODVLWHVSRUHOLQLQJFHPHQWVDQG
IP
T
VSHOHRWKHPVLQGLFDWHWKDWGLDJHQHVLVRIWKHIDXOWFDWDFODVLWHVDQGRIWKHWDOXVVXFFHVVLRQ SURFHHGHGXQGHULQIOXHQFHRIPHWHRULFZDWHUV7KHFHPHQWVLQWKHXOWUDFDWDFODVLWHVDQGLQWKH
CR
WDOXVEUHFFLDVVKRXOGEHGDWDEOHZLWKWKH87KPHWKRG7KLVPD\KHOSWRGHULYHDJH
US
FRQVWUDLQWVRQWDOXVDFFXPXODWLRQDQGRQSDODHRDFWLYLW\DQGGRUPDQFHRIIDXOWV
AN
$FNQRZOHGJHPHQWV
M
7KHFRQVWUXFWLYHFRPPHQWVRIDQDQRQ\PRXVUHYLHZHUDQGRIWKHHGLWRU%ULDQ-RQHVDUH
D
JUDWHIXOO\DFNQRZOHGJHG
TE
5HIHUHQFHV
CE P
$GDPROL/&DODPLWD)3L]]L$HWDO1RWHLOOXVWUDWLYHGHOOD&DUWDJHRORJLFDG ,WDOLDDOOD
AC
VFDODIRJOLR*UDQ6DVVRG ,WDOLD6HUYL]LR*HRORJLFRG ,WDOLD5RPDSS $JRVWD).LUVFKQHU'/)OXLGFRQGXLWVLQFDUERQDWHKRVWHGVHLVPRJHQLFQRUPDOIDXOWVRI FHQWUDO,WDO\-RXUQDORI*HRSK\VLFDO5HVHDUFK%GRL-% $PSIHUHU2%HLWUlJH]XU*HRORJLHGHU+XQJHUEXUJWHUUDVVHEHL,QQVEUXFN-DKUEXFKGHU *HRORJLVFKHQ%XQGHVDQVWDOW± $QGUp0)'RSHULJODFLDOODQGVFDSHVHYROYHXQGHUSHULJODFLDOFRQGLWLRQV"*HRPRUSKRORJ\ %DWHV5/-DFNVRQ-$*ORVVDU\RIJHRORJ\$PHULFDQ*HRORJLFDO,QVWLWXWH)DOOV&KXUFK 9D SS
ACCEPTED MANUSCRIPT
%DXYH95ROODQG<6DQFKH]**LDQQHULQL*6FKUHLEHU'&RUVLQL03HUH]-/ 5RPDJQ\$3OLRFHQHWR4XDWHUQDU\GHIRUPDWLRQLQWKH9DU%DVLQ1LFH6()UDQFH DQGLWV LQWHUSUHWDWLRQLQWHUPRIVORZDFWLYHIDXOWLQJ6ZLVV-RXUQDORI*HRVFLHQFHV %HQYHQXWL00DUWLQL,3$QDO\VLVRIWHUUHVWULDOK\SHUFRQFHQWUDWHGIORZVDQGWKHLUGHSRVLWV LQ0DUWLQL,3%DNHU95*DU]yQ*(GV )ORRGDQGPHJDIORRGSURFHVVHVDQGGHSRVLWV5HFHQW DQG$QFLHQW([DPSOHV6SHFLDO3XEOLFDWLRQVRIWKH,QWHUQDWLRQDO$VVRFLDWLRQRI6HGLPHQWRORJLVWV
T
IP
%HUWUDQ3)UDQFRX%7H[LHU-36WUDWLILHGVORSHGHSRVLWVWKHVWRQHEDQNHGVKHHWVDQG OREHVPRGHO,Q6OD\PDNHU2(G 6WHHSODQG*HRPRUSKRORJ\-RKQ:LOH\ 6RQV&KLFKHVWHUSS
CR
%HUWUDQ3+pWX%7H[LHU-3YDQ6WHLMQ+)DEULFFKDUDFWHULVWLFVRIVXEDHULDOVORSH
US
GHSRVLWV6HGLPHQWRORJ\
%LOOL$0LFURWHFWRQLFVRIORZ3ORZ7FDUERQDWHIDXOWURFNV-RXUQDORI6WUXFWXUDO*HRORJ\
AN
%OLNUD/+1HPHF:3RVWJODFLDOFROOXYLXPLQZHVWHUQ1RUZD\GHSRVLWLRQDOSURFHVVHV
M
IDFLHVDQGSDODHRFOLPDWLFUHFRUG6HGLPHQWRORJ\ %OXPHWWL$0*XHUUHUL/9LWWRUL(7KHSULPDU\UROHRIWKH3DJDQLFD±6DQ'HPHWULRIDXOW
TE
,QWHUQDWLRQDO
D
V\VWHPLQWKHVHLVPLFODQGVFDSHRIWKHPLGGOH$WHUQR9DOOH\EDVLQ&HQWUDO$SHQQLQHV 4XDWHUQDU\
%RQFLR33L]]L$%UR]]HWWL)3RPSRVR*/DYHFFKLD*'L1DFFLR')HUUDULQL)
CE P
&RVHLVPLFJURXQGGHIRUPDWLRQRIWKH$SULO/ $TXLODHDUWKTXDNHFHQWUDO,WDO\0Z *HRSK\VLFDO5HVHDUFK/HWWHUV/GRL*/ %RUUHOOL3+RHO]PDQQ3.QLWWHU'6FKWW%/DWH4XDWHUQDU\VRLOHURVLRQDQGODQGVFDSH
AC
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
ACCEPTED MANUSCRIPT
&DUGHOOR*/'RJOLRQL&)URP0HVR]RLFULIWLQJWR$SHQQLQHRURJHQ\7KH*UDQ6DVVR UDQJH,WDO\ *RQGZDQD5HVHDUFK &DUPLQDWL('RJOLRQL&$OSVYV$SHQQLQHV7KHSDUDGLJPRIDWHFWRQLFDOO\DV\PPHWULF (DUWK(DUWK6FLHQFH5HYLHZV &DYLQDWR*3'H&HOOHV3([WHQVLRQDOEDVLQVLQWKHWHFWRQLFDOO\ELPRGDOFHQWUDO$SHQQLQHV IROGWKUXVWEHOW,WDO\5HVSRQVHWRFRUQHUIORZDERYHDVXEGXFWLQJVODELQUHWURJUDGHPRWLRQ*HRORJ\
T
±
IP
&DYLQDWR*3&DUXVL&'DOO¶$VWD00LFFDGHL(3LDFHQWLQL76HGLPHQWDU\DQG WHFWRQLFHYROXWLRQRI3OLR3OHLVWRFHQHDOOXYLDODQGODFXVWULQHGHSRVLWVRI)XFLQR%DVLQFHQWUDO
CR
,WDO\ 6HGLPHQWDU\*HRORJ\
&HOOR*0D]]ROL67RQGL(7XUFR($FWLYHWHFWRQLFVLQWKHFHQWUDO$SHQQLQHVDQG
US
SRVVLEOHLPSOLFDWLRQVIRUVHLVPLFKD]DUGDQDO\VLVLQSHQLQVXODU,WDO\7HFWRQRSK\VLFV &HOOR*7RQLG(0LFDUHOOL/,QYHUQL]]L&)DXOW]RQHIDEULFVDQGJHRIOXLGSURSHUWLHVDV
AN
LQGLFDWURVRIURFNGHIRUPDWLRQPRGHV-RXUQDORI*HRG\QDPLFV &HQWDPRUH(1LVLR6(IIHFWVRIXSOLIWDQGWLOWLQJLQWKH&HQWUDO1RUWKHUQ$SHQQLQHV,WDO\
M
4XDWHUQDU\,QWHUQDWLRQDO
D
&KHORQL'' $JRVWLQR1' $QDVWDVLR($YDOORQH$0DQWHQXWR6*LXOLDQL50DWWRQH 0&DOFDWHUUD6*DPELQR3'RPLQLFL'5DGLFLRQL))DVWHOOLQL*&RVHLVPLFDQG
TE
LQLWLDOSRVWVHLVPLFVOLSRIWKH0Z/ $TXLODHDUWKTXDNH,WDO\IURP*36PHDVXUHPHQWV
CE P
*HRSK\VLFDO-RXUQDO,QWHUQDWLRQDO &RVWDQWLQL'2UWQHU+.OIWHXQG'HIRUPDWLRQVVWUXNWXUHQLQMXQJSOHLVWR]lQHQ %HFNHQVHGLPHQWHQGHV5LWDOHV%D\HUQ*HR$OS &RXVVRW30HXQLHU05HFRJQLWLRQFODVVLILFDWLRQDQGPHFKDQLFDOGHVFULSWLRQRIGHEULV
AC
IORZV(DUWK6FLHQFH5HYLHZV ' $GGH]LR*'0DVDQD(3DQWRVWL'7KH+RORFHQHSDOHRVHLVPLFLW\RIWKH$UHPRJQD &LQTXH0LJOLD)DXOW&HQWUDO,WDO\ -RXUQDORI6HLVPRORJ\ ' $JRVWLQR1&KDPRW5RRNH1)XQLFLHOOR5-ROLYHW/6SHUDQ]D)7KHUROHRISUH H[LVWLQJWKUXVWIDXOWVDQGWRSRJUDSK\RQWKHVW\OHVRIH[WHQVLRQLQWKH*UDQ6DVVRUDQJHFHQWUDO,WDO\ 7HFWRQRSK\VLFV ' $OHVVDQGUR/0LFFDGHL(3LDFHQWLQL70RUSKRVWUXFWXUDOHOHPHQWVRIFHQWUDOHDVWHUQ $EUX]]LFRQWULEXWLRQVWRWKHVWXG\RIWKHUROHRIWHFWRQLFVRQWKHPRUSKRJHQHVLVRIWKH$SHQLQQH FKDLQ4XDWHUQDU\,QWHUQDWLRQDO
ACCEPTED MANUSCRIPT
'DVJXSWD36HGLPHQWJUDYLW\IORZ±WKHFRQFHSWXDOSUREOHPV(DUWK6FLHQFH5HYLHZV 'HPXUWDV0)RQGULHVW0%DOVDPR)&OHPHQ]L/6WRUWL)%LVWDFFKL$'L7RUR* 6WUXFWXUHRIDQRUPDOVHLVPRJHQLFIDXOW]RQHLQFDUERQDWHV7KH9DGRGL&RUQR)DXOW&DPSR ,PSHUDWRUH&HQWUDO$SHQQLQHV,WDO\ -RXUQDORI6WUXFWXUDO*HRORJ\ 'L)HOLFH5/LTXLGVROLGVXVSHQVLRQWKHRU\ZLWKUHIHUHQFHWRSRVVLEOHDSSOLFDWLRQVLQJHRORJ\
T
%DVLQ5HVHDUFK
IP
'XUDQWL'+XUVW$)OXLGL]DWLRQDQGLQMHFWLRQLQWKHGHHSZDWHUVDQGVWRQHVRIWKH(RFHQH
CR
$OED)RUPDWLRQ8.1RUWK6HD 6HGLPHQWRORJ\
'XWRXU$3KLOLS+-DXUDQG(&RPEHV30LVHHQpYLGHQFHGHGpIRUPDWLRQVHQIDLOOH LQYHUVHDYHFUXSWXUHVGHVXUIDFHFRVLVPLTXHVGDQVGHVGpS{WVFROOXYLDX[ZUPLHQVGXYHUVDQWQRUGGX
US
PRQW9HQWRX[3URYHQFHRFFLGHQWDOH)UDQFH &RPSWHV5HQGXHV*HRVFLHQFH
AN
(LGHOPDQ$5HFKHV=)UDFWXUHGSHEEOHV±$QHZVWUHVVLQGLFDWRU*HRORJ\ (PHUJHR:RUNLQJ*URXS(YLGHQFHIRUVXUIDFHUXSWXUHDVVRFLDWHGZLWKWKH0Z/ $TXLOD
M
HDUWKTXDNHVHTXHQFHRI$SULOFHQWUDO,WDO\ 7HUUD1RYD )HUUDQWL/2OGRZ-66DFFKL03UH4XDWHUQDU\RURJHQSDUDOOHOH[WHQVLRQLQWKH6RXWKHUQ
D
$SHQLQQHEHOW,WDO\7HFWRQRSK\VLFV
TE
)LVKHU59)HDWXUHVRIFRDUVHJUDLQHGKLJKFRQFHQWUDWLRQIOXLGVDQGWKHLUGHSRVLWV-RXUQDORI 6HGLPHQWDU\3HWURORJ\
CE P
)OJHO(0LFURIDFLHVRIFDUERQDWHURFNVSS6SULQJHU%HUOLQ )XEHOOL**RUL6)DOFXFFL(*DODGLQL)0HVVLQD3*HRPRUSKLFVLJQDWXUHVRIUHFHQW QRUPDOIDXOWDFWLYLW\YHUVXVJHRORJLFDOHYLGHQFHRILQDFWLYLW\&DVHVWXGLHVIURPWKHFHQWUDO$SHQQLQHV
AC
,WDO\ 7HFWRQRSK\VLFV *DODGLQL)*DOOL3$FWLYHWHFWRQLFVLQWKH&HQWUDO$SHQQLQHV,WDO\ ±,QSXWGDWDIRUVHLVPLF KD]DUGDVVHVVPHQW1DWXUDO+D]DUGV *DODGLQL)0HVVLQD3(DUO\0LGGOH3OHLVWRFHQHHDVWZDUGPLJUDWLRQRIWKH$EUX]]L$SHQQLQH FHQWUDO,WDO\ H[WHQVLRQDOGRPDLQ-RXUQDORI*HRG\QDPLFV± *DODGLQL)0HVVLQD3*LDFFLR%6SRVDWR$(DUO\XSOLIWKLVWRU\RIWKH$EUX]]L $SHQQLQHVFHQWUDO,WDO\ DYDLODEOHJHRPRUSKRORJLFDOFRQVWUDLQWV4XDWHUQDU\,QWHUQDWLRQDO *DOOL31HZHPSLULFDOUHODWLRQVKLSVEHWZHHQPDJQLWXGHDQGGLVWDQFHIRUOLTXHIDFWLRQ 7HFWRQRSK\VLFV
ACCEPTED MANUSCRIPT
*DOOL3*DODGLQL)0RUR0*LUDXGL&1HZSDOHRVHLVPRORJLFDOGDWDIURPWKH*UDQ6DVVL G ,WDOLDDUHDFHQWUDO$SHQLQQHV *HRSK\VLFDO5HVHDUFK/HWWHUV*/ *DOOL3*DODGLQL)&DO]RQL)6XUIDFHIDXOWLQJLQ1RUFLDFHQWUDO,WDO\ D ÄSDOHRVHLVPRORJLFDOSHUVSHFWLYH³7HFWRQRSK\VLFV *DOOL3*DODGLQL)3DQWRVWL'7ZHQW\\HDUVRISDOHRVHLVPRORJ\LQ,WDO\(DUWK6FLHQFH 5HYLHZV
T
*DUGQHU7:5LWWHU-%6KXPDQ&$%HOO-&6DVRZVN\.&3LQWHU1$SHULJODFLDO
IP
VWUDWLILHGVORSHGHSRVLWLQWKH9DOOH\DQG5LGJH3URYLQFHRI&HQWUDO3HQQV\OYDQLD86$
CR
6HGLPHQWRORJ\VWUDWLJUDSK\DQGJHRPRUSKLFHYROXWLRQ3HUPDIURVWDQG3HULJODFLDO3URFHVVHV
*H\K0$+DQGEXFKGHUSK\VLNDOLVFKHQXQGFKHPLVFKHQ$OWHUVEHVWLPPXQJ
US
:LVVHQVFKDIWOLFKH%XFKJHVHOOVFKDIW'DUPVWDGWSS
*KLVHWWL)9H]]DQL/7KUXVWEHOWGHYHORSPHQWLQWKHFHQWUDO$SHQQLQHVQRUWKZDUGSRODULW\
AN
RIWKUXVWLQJDQGRXWRIVHTXHQFHGHIRUPDWLRQVLQWKH*UDQ6DVVRFKDLQ,WDO\ 7HFWRQLFV *KLVHWWL)9H]]DQL/'HSWKDQGPRGHOVRI3OLRFHQH±3OHLVWRFHQHFUXVWDOH[WHQVLRQRIWKH
M
$SHQQLQHV,WDO\ 7HUUD1RYD
D
*KLVHWWL)9H]]DQL/1RUPDOIDXOWLQJH[WHQVLRQDQGXSOLIWLQWKHRXWHUWKUXVWEHOWRIWKH
TE
FHQWUDO$SHQQLQHV,WDO\ UROHRIWKH&DUDPDQLFRIDXOW%DVLQ5HVHDUFK *KLVHWWL).LUVFKQHU'/9H]]DQL/$JRVWD)6WDEOHLVRWRSHHYLGHQFHIRUFRQWUDVWLQJ
CE P
SDOHRIOXLGFLUFXODWLRQLQWKUXVWIDXOWVDQGQRUPDOIDXOWVRIWKHFHQWUDO$SHQQLQHV,WDO\-RXUQDORI *HRSK\VLFDO5HVHDUFK% *LUDXGL&,GHWULWLGLYHUVDQWHDLPDUJLQLGHOOD3LDQDGHO)XFLQR,WDOLD&HQWUDOH 6LJQLILFDWR
AC
SDOHRFOLPDWLFRHGLPSDWWRDQWURSLFR,O4XDWHUQDULR *LUDXGL&0LGGOHWR/DWH+RORFHQHJODFLDOYDULDWLRQVSHULJODFLDOSURFHVVHVDQGDOOXYLDO VHGLPHQWDWLRQRQWKHKLJKHU$SHQQLQHPDVVLIV,WDO\ 4XDWHUQDU\5HVHDUFK *LUDXGL&7KH&DPSR)HOLFH/DWH3OHLVWRFHQHJODFLDWLRQ$SHQQLQHV&HQWUDO,WDO\ -RXUQDORI 4XDWHUQDU\6FLHQFH± *LUDXGL&7KHXSSHU3OHLVWRFHQHGHJODFLDWLRQRQWKH$SHQQLQHV3HQLQVXODU,WDO\ &XDGHUQRV GH,QYHVWLJDFLyQ*HRJUiILFD *LUDXGL&)UH]]RWWL03DODHRVHLVPLFLW\LQWKH*UDQ6DVVRPDVVLI$EUX]]RFHQWUDO,WDO\ 4XDWHUQDU\,QWHUQDWLRQDO *LUDXGL&)UH]]RWWL0/DWH3OHLVWRFHQHJODFLDOHYHQWVLQWKH&HQWUDO$SHQQLQHV,WDO\
ACCEPTED MANUSCRIPT
4XDWHUQDU\5HVHDUFK± *RUL6*LDFFLR%*DODGLQL))DOFXFFL(0HVVLQD36SRVDWR$'UDPLV)$FWLYH QRUPDOIDXOWLQJDORQJWKH0W0RUURQHVRXWKZHVWHUQVORSHVFHQWUDO$SHQQLQHV,WDO\ ,QWHUQDWLRQDO -RXUQDORI(DUWK6FLHQFHV *RUL6)ODFXFFL('UDPLV)*DODGLQL)*DOOL3*LDFFLR%0HVVLQD33L]]L$6SRVDWR $&RVHQWLQR''HHSVHDWHGJUDYLWDWLRQDOVORSHGHIRUPDWLRQODUJHVFDOHURFNIDLOXUHDQG
T
DFWLYHQRUPDOIDXOWLQJDORQJ0W0RUURQH6XOPQDEDVLQ&HQWUDO,WDO\ *HRPRUSKRORJLFDODQG
IP
SDOHRVHLVPRORJLFDODQDO\VHV*HRPRUSKRORJ\
*RUL6)DOFXFFL(/DGLQD&0DU]RUDWL6*DODGLQL)$FWLYHIDXOWLQJ'JHRORJLFDO
CR
DUFKLWHFWXUHDQG3OLR4XDWHUQDU\VWUXFWXUDOHYROXWLRQRIH[WHQVLRQDOEDVLQVLQWKHFHQWUDO$SHQQLQH FKDLQ,WDO\6ROLG(DUWK
FOLPDWHFKDQJH-RXUQDORI*ODFLRORJ\
US
*UXQHZDOG.6FKHLWKDXHU-(XURSH¶VVRXWKHUQPRVWJODFLHUVUHVSRQVHDQGDGDSWDWLRQWR
AN
*XLVHV5;LDQJ-/DWKDP-30XQML]D$*UDQXODUSDFNLQJQXPHULFDOVLPXODWLRQDQG WKHFKDUDFWHUL]DWLRQRIWKHHIIHFWRISDUWLFOHVKDSH*UDQXODU0DWWHU
D
1HZ=HDODQG*HRORJ\
M
+DOHV7&5RHULQJ--&OLPDWHFRQWUROOHGYDULDWLRQVLQVFUHHSURGXFWLRQ6RXWKHUQ$OSV
+DOO.7KRUQ&(7KHUPDOIDWLJXHDQGWKHUPDOVKRFNLQEHGURFN$QDWWHPSWWRXQUDYHOWKH
TE
JHRPRUSKLFSURFHVVHVDQGSURGXFWV*HRPRUSKRORJ\
CE P
+HLW]PDQQ3.DNLULWH.DWDNODVLWH0\ORQLWH]XU1RPHQNODWXUGHU0HWDPRUSKLWHPLW 9HUIRUPXQJVJHIJHQ(FORJDH*HRORJLFDH+HOYHWLDH +LSSRO\WH-&3DODHRVWUHVVDQGQHRWHFWRQLFDQDO\VLVRIVKHDUHGFRQJORPHUDWHV6RXWKZHVW
AC
$OSVDQG6RXWKHUQ$SHQQLQHV-RXUQDORI6WUXFWXUDO*HRORJ\ +XJKHV3':RRGZDUG-&*LEEDUG3/4XDWHUQDU\JODFLDOKLVWRU\RIWKH 0HGLWHUUDQHDQPRXQWDLQV3URJUHVVLQ3K\VLFDO*HRJUDSK\ +XUVW$6FRWW$9LJRULWR03K\VLFDOFKDUDFWHULVWLFVRIVDQGLQMHFWLWHV(DUWK6FLHQFH 5HYLHZV -ROO\5-+/RQHUJDQ/0HFKDQLVPVDQGFRQWUROVRQWKHIRUPDWLRQRIVDQGLQWUXVLRQV -RXUQDORIWKH*HRORJLFDO6RFLHW\RI/RQGRQ .DVWHOLF9%XUUDWR3&DUDID00&%DVLOL55HSHDWHGVXUYH\VUHYHDOQRQWHFWRQLF H[SRVXUHRIVXSSRVHGO\DFWLYHQRUPDOIDXOWVLQWKHFHQWUDO$SHQQLQHV,WDO\-RXUQDORI *HRSK\VLFDO5HVHDUFK(DUWK6XUIDFHGRL-)
ACCEPTED MANUSCRIPT
.RWDUED$6WU|PTXLVW/7UDQVSRUWVRUWLQJDQGGHSRVLWLRQSURFHVVHVRI$OSLQHGHEULVVORSH GHSRVLWVLQWKH3ROLVK7DWUD0RXQWDLQV*HRJUDILVND$QQDOHU$ .UDXWEODWWHU00RVHU0$QRQOLQHDUPRGHOFRXSOLQJURFNIDOODQGUDLQIDOOLQWHQVLW\ EDVHGRQDIRXU\HDUPHDVXUHPHQWLQKLJK$OSLQHURFNZDOO5HLQWDO*HUPDQ$OSV 1DWXUDO +D]DUGVDQG(DUWK6\VWHP6FLHQFH .UDXWEODWWHU00RVHU06FKURWW/:ROI-0RUFKH'6LJQLILFDQFHRIURFNIDOO
T
PDJQLWXGHDQGFDUERQDWHGLVVROXWLRQIRUURFNVORSHHURVLRQDQGJHRPRUSKLFZRUNRQ$OSLQH
IP
OLPHVWRQHFOLIIV5HLQWDO$OSV *HRRPRUSKRORJ\
/DYHFFKLD*%UR]]HWWL)%DUFKL00HQLFKHWWL0.HOOHU-9$6HLVPRWHFWRQLF]RQLQJ
CR
LQHDVWFHQWUDO,WDO\GHGXFHGIURPDQDQDO\VLVRIWKH1HRJHQHWRSUHVHQWGHIRUPDWLRQVDQGUHODWHG VWUHVVILHOGV*HRORJLFDO6RFLHW\RI$PHULFD%XOOHWLQ
US
/DYHFFKLD*$GLQROIL*0GH1DUGLV5)HUUDULQL)&LULOOR'%UR]]HWWL)'H0DWWHLV5 )HVWD*=ROOR$0XOWLGLVFLSOLQDU\LQIHUHQFHVRQDQHZO\UHFRJQL]HGDFWLYHHDVWGLSSLQJ
AN
H[WHQVLRQDOV\VWHPLQ&HQWUDO,WDO\7HUUD1RYD
/RQJLDUX69LVXDOFRPSDUDWRUVIRUHVWLPDWLQJWKHGHJUHHRI VRUWLQJIURPSODQHDQGWKLQ
M
VHFWLRQ-RXUQDORI6HGLPHQWDU\3HWURORJ\
D
/RZH'5*UDLQIORZDQGJUDLQIORZGHSRVLWV-RXUQDORI6HGLPHQWDU\3HWURORJ\ 0DOLQYHUQR$5\DQ:%)([WHQVLRQLQWKH7\UUKHQLDQVHDDQGVKRUWHQLQJLQWKH$SHQQLQHV
TE
DVDUHVXOWRIDUFPLJUDWLRQGULYHQE\VLQNLQJRIOLWKRVSKHUH7HFWRQLFV±
CE P
0DQWRYDQL(%DEEXFFL'7DPEXUHOOL&9LWL0$UHYLHZRQWKHGULYLQJPHFKDQLVPVRI WKH7\UUKHQLDQ$SHQQLQHVV\VWHP,PSOLFDWLRQVIRUWKHSUHVHQWVHLVPRWHFWRQLFVHWWLQJLQWKH&HQWUDO 1RUWKHUQ$SHQQLQHV7HFWRQRSK\VLFV 0F(ZHQ7-%ULWWOHGHIRUPDWLRQLQSLWWHGSHEEOHFRQJORPHUDWHV-RXUQDORI6WUXFWXUDO
AC
*HRORJ\
0H\HU0&:LHVPD\U*%UDXQHU0+lXVOHU+:DQJGD'$FWLYHWHFWRQLFVLQ(DVWHUQ /XQDQD1:%KXWDQ ,PSOLFDWLRQVIRUWKHVHLVPLFDQGJODFLDOKD]DUGSRWHQWLDORIWKH%KXWDQ +LPDOD\D7HFWRQLFV7&GRL7& 0LFDUHOOL/%HQHGLFWR$:LEEHUOH\&$-6WUXFWXUDOHYROXWLRQDQGSHUPHDELOLW\RIQRUPDO IDXOW]RQHVLQKLJKO\SRURXVFDUERQDWHURFNV-RXUQDORI6WUXFWXUDO*HRORJ\ 0RKLQGUD5%DJDWL716HLVPLFDOO\LQGXFHGVRIWVHGLPHQWGHIRUPDWLRQVWUXFWXUHV VHLVPLWHV DURXQG6XPGRLQWKHORZHU6SLWLYDOOH\7HWK\V+LPDOD\D 6HGLPHQWDU\*HRORJ\
ACCEPTED MANUSCRIPT
0RODUR-/0F.D\&33URFHVVHVFRQWUROOLQJUDSLGWHPSHUDWXUHYDULDWLRQVRQURFNVXUIDFHV (DUWK6XUIDFH3URFHVVHVDQG/DQGIRUPV 0RQWRQH30DULXFFL073RQGUHOOL6$PDWR$$QLPSURYHGVWUHVVPDSIRU,WDO\DQG VXUURXQGLQJUHJLRQV-RXUQDORI*HRSK\VLFDO5HVHDUFK%GRL-% 0RRUH-56DQGHUV-:'LHWULFK:(*ODVHU6',QIOXHQFHRIURFNPDVVVWUHQJWKRQWKH HURVLRQUDWHRIDOSLQHFOLIIV(DUWK6XUIDFH3URFHVVHVDQG/DQGIRUPV
T
2EHUPHLHU6)8VHRIOLTXHIDFWLRQLQGXFHGIHDWXUHVIRUSDOHRVHLVPLFDQDO\VLV±$QRYHUYLHZ
IP
RIKRZVHLVPLFOLTXHIDFWLRQIHDWXUHVFDQEHGLVWLQJXLVKHGIURPRWKHUIHDWXUHVDQGKRZWKHLUUHJLRQDO +RORFHQHSDOHRHDUWKTXDNHV(QJLQHHULQJ*HRORJ\
CR
GLVWULEXWLRQDQGSURSHUWLHVRIVRXUFHVHGLPHQWFDQEHXVHGWRLQIHUWKHORFDWLRQDQGVWUHQJWKRI
2O\SKDQW*$$QDO\VLVRIWKHIDFWRUVFRQWUROOLQJFOLIIEXULDOE\WDOXVZLWKLQ%ODQFD
US
0DVVLIVRXWKHUQ&RORUDGR86$$UFWLFDQG$OSLQH5HVHDUFK
2UWQHU+'HIRUPDWLRQXQG'LDJHQHVHLP8QWHULQQWDOHU7HUWlU]ZLVFKHQ5DWWHQEHUJXQG
AN
'XUFKKRO]HQ XQGVHLQHP5DKPHQ3K'WKHVLV8QLYHUVLW\RI,QQVEUXFNSS 2UWQHU+5HLWHU)$FV3(DV\KDQGOLQJRIWHFWRQLFGDWDWKHSURJUDPV7HFWRQLF9%IRU0DF
M
DQG7HFWRQLFV)3IRU:LQGRZV70 &RPSXWHUV *HRVFLHQFHV
D
2UWQHU+3RPHOOD+6DQGHUV')RUPDWLRQRIFDWDFODVLWHVLQVKDOORZVXEVXUIDFHVHWWLQJV± PHWHRULFGLDJHQHWLFSURFHVVHVFRQWUROIDXOWURFNIRUPDWLRQDWVHLVPRJHQLFIDXOWVLQWKH$EUX]]L
TE
$SHQQLQHV,WDO\*HRSK\VLFDO5HVHDUFK$EVWUDFWV(*8
CE P
2UWQHU+6DQGHUV'3RPHOOD+1RUPDOIDXOWPRUSKRORJ\DQGDJHLQJRIFDWDFODVLWHVDW &DPSR,PSHUDWRUH$EUX]]L$SHQQLQHV,WDO\*HRSK\VLFDO5HVHDUFK$EVWUDFWV(*8 2VWHUPDQQ06DQGHUV'7KH%UHQQHUSDVVURFNDYDODQFKHFOXVWHUVXJJHVWVDFORVH UHODWLRQEHWZHHQORQJWHUPVORSHGHIRUPDWLRQ'6*6'VDQGWUDQVODWLRQDOURFNVOLGHV DQG
AC
FDWDVWURSKLFIDLOXUH*HRPRUSKRORJ\ 2VWHUPDQQ06DQGHUV'3UDJHU&.UDPHUV-$UDJRQLWHDQGFDOFLWHFHPHQWDWLRQLQ
ERXOGHUFRQWUROOHG PHWHRULFHQYLURQPHQWVRQWKH)HUQ3DVVURFNVOLGH$XVWULD LPSOLFDWLRQVIRU UDGLRPHWULFDJHGDWLQJRIFDWDVWURSKLFPDVVPRYHPHQWV)DFLHV 2VWHUPDQQ0,Y\2FKV66DQGHUV'3UDJHU&0XOWLPHWKRG&&O87K DJHEUDFNHWLQJRIWKH7VFKLUJDQWURFNDYDODQFKH(DVWHUQ$OSV ,PSOLFDWLRQVIRUDEVROXWHGDWLQJRI FDWDVWURSKLFPDVV±ZDVWLQJ(DUWK6XUIDFH3URFHVVHVDQG/DQGIRUPV
ACCEPTED MANUSCRIPT
2XHOOHW0$*HUPDLQ'+\SHUFRQFHQWUDWHGIORZVRQDIRUHVWHGDOOXYLDOIDQRIHDVWHUQ &DQDGDJHRPRUSKLFFKDUDFWHULVWLFVUHWXUQSHULRGDQGWULJJHULQJVFHQDULRV(DUWK6XUIDFH 3URFHVVHVDQG/DQGIRUPV 2ZHQ*6RIWVHGLPHQWGHIRUPDWLRQLQXSSHU3URWHUR]RLF7RUULGRQLDQVDQGVWRQHV $SSOHFURVV)RUPDWLRQ DW7RUULGRQQRUWKZHVW6FRWODQG-RXUQDORI6HGLPHQWDU\5HVHDUFK$
T
2ZHQ*([SHULPHQWDOVRIWVHGLPHQWGHIRUPDWLRQVWUXFWXUHVIRUPHGE\WKHOLTXHIDFWLRQRI
IP
XQFRQVROLGDWHGVDQGVDQGVRPHDQFLHQWH[DPSOHV6HGLPHQWRORJ\
2]RXI-&7H[LHU-3%HUWUDQ3&RXWDUG-34XHOTXHVFRXSHVFDUDFWpULVWLTXHVGDQV
CR
OHVGpSRWVGHYHUVDQWG¶$TXLWDLQHVHSWHQWULRQDOH)DFLqVHWLQWHUSUpWDWLRQG\QDPLTXH3HUPDIURVW DQG3HULJODFLDO3URFHVVHV
US
3DSDQLNRODRX,'5REHUWV*30LFKHWWL$0)DXOWVFDUSVDQGGHIRUPDWLRQUDWHVLQ /D]LR$EUX]]R&HQWUDO,WDO\&RPSDULVRQEHWZHHQJHRORJLFDOIDXOWVOLSUDWHDQG*36GDWD
AN
7HFWRQRSK\VLFV
3DWDFFD(6DUWRUL56FDQGRQH37\UUKHQLDQ%DVLQDQG$SHQQLQLFDUFVNLQHPDWLFUHODWLRQV
M
VLQFHODWH7RUWRQLDQWLPHV0HPRULHGHOOD6RFLHWj*HRORJLFD,WDOLDQD± 3L]]L$4XDWHUQDU\XSOLIWUDWHVLQWKHRXWHU]RQHRIWKHFHQWUDO$SHQQLQHVIROGDQGWKUXVWEHOW
D
,WDO\4XDWHUQDU\,QWHUQDWLRQDO
TE
3L]]L$)DOFXFFL(*RUL6*DODGLQL)0HVVLQD3'L9LQFHQ]R0(VHVWLPH3*LDFFLR% 3RPSRVR*6SRVDWR$$FWLYHIDXOWLQJLQWKH0DLHOODPDVVLIFHQWUDO$SHQQLQHV,WDO\
CE P
*HR$FWD6SHFLDO3XEOLFDWLRQ
5HLG(7KRPDV0)$FKURQRVWUDWLJUDSK\RIPLGDQGODWH+RORFHQHVORSHHYROXWLRQ &UHDJDQD¶&KDRUDLQQ1RUWKHUQ+LJKODQGV6FRWODQG7KH+RORFHQH
AC
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
ACCEPTED MANUSCRIPT
6DQGHUV')HDWXUHVUHODWHGWRVQRZDYDODQFKHVDQGVQRZJOLGHV1RUGNHWWHUDQJH1RUWKHUQ &DOFDUHRXV$OSV *HR$OS 6DQGHUV'1HRWHFWRQLFGHIRUPDWLRQLQ4XDWHUQDU\GHSRVLWV1RUWKHUQ&DOFDUHRXV$OSV DEVWU ,Q*HR7LURO±$QQXDO0HHWLQJ'**9$EVWUDFW9ROXPHS 6DQGHUV'2VWHUPDQQ03RVWODVWJODFLDODOOXYLDOIDQDQGWDOXVVORSHDVVRFLDWLRQV1RUWKHUQ &DOFDUHRXV$OSV$XVWULD $SUR[\IRU/DWH3OHLVWRFHQHWR+RORFHQHFOLPDWHFKDQJH*HRPRUSKRORJ\
T
IP
6DQGHUV'2VWHUPDQQ0.UDPHUV-4XDWHUQDU\FDUERQDWHURFN\WDOXVVORSHVXFFHVVLRQV
CR
(DVWHUQ$OSV$XVWULD VHGLPHQWDU\IDFLHVDQGIDFLHVDUFKLWHFWXUH)DFLHV 6DQGHUV'2VWHUPDQQ0.UDPHUV-0HWHRULFGLDJHQHVLVRI4XDWHUQDU\FDUERQDWHURFN\
US
WDOXVVORSHVXFFHVVLRQV1RUWKHUQ&DOFDUHRXV$OSV$XVWULD )DFLHV 6DQGHUV'2VWHUPDQQ0%UDQGQHU53UDJHU&0HWHRULFOLWKLILFDWLRQRIFDWDVWURSKLF
AN
URFNVOLGHGHSRVLWVGLDJHQHVLVDQGVLJQLILFDQFH6HGLPHQWDU\*HRORJ\ 6DQGHUV':LGHUD/2VWHUPDQQ07ZROD\HUVFUHHVQRZDYDODQFKHWULJJHUHGE\URFNIDOO
M
(DVWHUQ$OSV VLJQLILFDQFHIRUVHGLPHQWRORJ\RIVFUHHVORSHV6HGLPHQWRORJ\ 6DQGHUV'2UWQHU+3RPHOOD+0HWHRULFGLDJHQHVLVRIXOWUDFDWDFODVLWHVUHFRUGVODWHVWDJH
D
IDXOWPRYHPHQWFHQWUDO$SHQQLQHV,WDO\*HRSK\VLFDO5HVHDUFK$EVWUDFWV(*8
TE
6DVV26SDWLDOSDWWHUQVRIURFNIDOOLQWHQVLW\LQWKHQRUWKHUQ$OSV=HLWVFKULIWIU
CE P
*HRPRUSKRORJLH6XSSOHPHQWEDQG 6LEVRQ5+)DXOWURFNVDQGIDXOWPHFKDQLVPV-RXUQDORIWKH*HRORJLFDO6RFLHW\RI/RQGRQ ±
AC
6LPRQ-/$QDO\VLVRIVROXWLRQOLQHDWLRQVLQSHEEOHVNLQHPDWLFDOYVG\QDPLFDODSSURDFKHV 7HFWRQRSK\VLFV± 6LQQRWW0'&OHDU\3:9LEUDWLRQLQGXFHGDUFKLQJLQDGHHSJUDQXODUEHG*UDQXODU0DWWHU 6RKQ<.5KHH&:.LP%&'HEULVIORZDQGK\SHUFRQFHQWUDWHGIORRGIORZGHSRVLWVLQ DQDOOXYLDOIDQQRUWKZHVWHUQSDUWRIWKH&UHWDFHRXV
ACCEPTED MANUSCRIPT
7RQGL(&HOOR*6SDWLRWHPSRUDOHYROXWLRQRIWKH&HQWUDO$SHQQLQHVIDXOWV\VWHP,WDO\ -RXUQDORI*HRG\QDPLFV 7XLW]&([QHU8*UDVHPDQQ%3UHK$:KRFUDFNHGWKHSHEEOHVLQWKHJUDYHOSLW± OLWKRVWDWLFSUHVVXUHRUDEXQFKRIIDXOWV"*HRSK\VLFDO5HVHDUFK$EVWUDFWV(*8 7XLW]&([QHU8)UHKQHU0*UDVHPDQQ%7KHLPSDFWRIHOOLSVSLGDOSDUWLFOHVKDSHRQ SHEEOHEUHDNDJHLQJUDYHO,QWHUQDWLRQDO-RXUQDORI5RFN0HFKDQLFV 0LQLQJ6FLHQFHV
IP
/DQJWDQJ+LPDO&HQWUDO1HSDO+LPDOD\D*HRPRUSKRORJ\
T
:DWDQDEH7'DOL/6KLUDLZD76ORSHGHQXGDWLRQDQGWKHVXSSO\RIGHEULVWRFRQHVLQ
CR
:RRGFRFN1+0RUW.&ODVVLILFDWLRQRIIDXOWEUHFFLDVDQGUHODWHGIDXOWURFNV*HRORJLFDO 0DJD]LQH
US
9DORURVR/&KLDUDOXFH/&ROOHWWLQL&(DUWKTXDNHVDQGIDXOW]RQHVWUXFWXUH*HRORJ\
AN
9DQ6WHLMQ+'HEULVIORZVLQYROYHGLQWKHGHYHORSPHQWRI3OHLVWRFHQHVWUDWLILHGVORSH GHSRVLWV=HLWVFKULIWIU*HRPRUSKRORJLH1HXH)ROJH6XSSOHPHQWEDQG
M
9DQ6WHLMQ+6WUDWLILHGVORSHGHSRVLWV3HULJODFLDODQGRWKHUSURFHVVHVLQYROYHG,Q0DUWLQL ,3)UHQFK+03pUH]$OEHUWL$(GV ,FHPDUJLQDODQGSHULJODFLDOSURFHVVHVDQGVHGLPHQWV
D
*HRORJLFDO6RFLHW\RI/RQGRQ6SHFDO3XEOLFDWLRQV
TE
9DQ6WHLMQ+%HUWUDQ3)UDQFRX%+pWX%7H[LHU-30RGHOVIRUWKHJHQHWLFDQG HQYLURQPHQWDOLQWHUSUHWDWLRQRIVWUDWLILHGVORSHGHSRVLWVUHYLHZ3HUPDIURVWDQG3HULJODFLDO3URFHVVHV
CE P
9HQWUD'&KRQJ'uD]*'H%RHU3/&ROOXYLDOVHGLPHQWDWLRQLQDK\SHUDULGVHWWLQJ $WDFDPD'HVHUWQRUWKHUQ&KLOH *HRPRUSKLFFRQWUROVDQGVWUDWLJUDSKLFIDFLHVYDULDELOLW\
AC
6HGLPHQWRORJ\
9LWL00DQWRYDQL(%DEEXFFL'7DPEXUHOOL&3ODWHNLQHPDWLFVDQGJHRG\QDPLFVLQWKH &HQWUDO0HGLWHUUDQHDQ-RXUQDORI*HRG\QDPLFV
ACCEPTED MANUSCRIPT
)LJXUHFDSWLRQV )LJ$ 3RVLWLRQRIVWXG\DUHDUHGUHFWDQJOH LQ,WDO\% 6LPSOLILHGJHRORJLFDOPDSRI *UDQ6DVVRPDVVLIZLWKPDMRUIDXOWV\VWHPVDQG4XDWHUQDU\GHSRVLWV& 6HOHFWHG JHRPRUSKLFIHDWXUHVDQG4XDWHUQDU\VHGLPHQWV1RWHJODFLDOFLUTXHVRQQRUWKDQGHDVWIDFLQJ
IP
T
VORSHV7KHORQJDQGKLJKVRXWKIDFLQJVORSHQRUWKDQGZHVWRI$VVHUJLLVFRYHUHGE\IRVVLO VFUHHVORSHVWKDWDUHLQYROYHGLQQRUPDOIDXOWLQJ
CR
US
)LJ'LVWULEXWLRQRIIRVVLOWDOXVEUHFFLDVQHDUDULGJHWHUPHG*DURIDQR *DURIDQREUHFFLD 7KHEHGURFNVXFFHVVLRQZLWKRXWFRORXU FRQVLVWVRI0HVR&DLQR]RLFGHHSZDWHUOLPHVWRQHV
AN
WKDWORFDOO\FRQWDLQOHYHOVZLWKFKHUWQRGXOHV1XPEHUVWRGHQRWHNH\ORFDWLRQVGHVFULEHG LQWKHWH[W
M
D
)LJ$ 9LHZRQWRNH\RXWFURSRIURDGFXWDORQJ6WUDGDSURYLQFLDOH&DPSRWRVWRORFDWLRQ
TE
)LJ VKRZLQJWUDFHRI&HUDVROLIDXOWDQGWDOXVGHSRVLWV%& 'HWDLOVWRVKRZVRLOOHYHOV ZKLWHOLQHV ZLWKPD[LPXP±PLQLPXPDJHUDQJHVDQGGLVWLQFWXQLWV$DQG%RIWDOXV
CE P
EUHFFLDV7KHWZRXQLWVDUHYHUWLFDOO\VHSDUDWHGE\DEDFNZHDWKHULQJLQWHUYDORISRRUO\ OLWKLILHGVFUHHZLWKWKUHHLQWHUFDODWHGVRLOOHYHOV1RWHKHWHURD[LDOIROGLQJRIGRZQIDXOWHG
AC
VXFFHVVLRQDSSUR[LPDWHIROGD[HV$a DQG%a QRWQHFHVVDULO\LPSO\D WHPSRUDOVXFFHVVLRQRIIROGLQJVHHWH[WIRUGLVFXVVLRQ
)LJ0RGLILHGWHUPLQRORJ\RIGLVLQWHJUDWHGURFNDQGFDWDFODVLWHVUHODWHGWREULWWOHIDXOWLQJ 5HGDUHWHUPVLQWURGXFHGKHUHLQ6HHWH[WIRUGHVFULSWLRQDQGUHIHUHQFHV )LJ7DOXVEUHFFLDVLQILHOGDQGWKLQVHFWLRQ$ 8QLW$VHH)LJ%& /D\HUVRI RSHQZRUNEUHFFLDVRE DUHVHSDUDWHGE\RXWZHDWKHULQJEHGVRIEUHFFLDVZLWKDPDWUL[RI
ACCEPTED MANUSCRIPT
OLWKLFVDQGDUURZWLSV :LGWKRIYLHZP% 8QLW%VHH)LJ%& 2SHQZRUNEUHFFLDV RE DUHRYHUODLQE\EUHFFLDVZLWKZDY\EHGGLQJ:LGWKRIYLHZP& 8QLW%6HWRIVWUDWD RISRRUO\FHPHQWHGRSHQZRUNVFUHH6WUDWLILFDWLRQLVHYLGHQWPDLQO\E\GLIIHUHQFHVLQPHDQ JUDLQVL]H3HQFP' 7KLQVHFWLRQRIRSHQZRUNWDOXVEUHFFLD)DLQWO\YLVLEOHWUDQVOXFHQW FODVWVDUHFKHUWDIHZODEHOHGF 3DUDOOHOQLFROV( 'HWDLORISUHFHHGLQJSKRWR1RWHILWWHG
IP
T
FODVWERXQGDULHVFFKHUWFODVW 5HGUHFWDQJOHDUHDRIVXEILJXUH)3DUDOOHOQLFROV) 'HWDLO RIVDPSOHVKRZQLQVXEILJXUH'1RWHGLVVROXWLRQVXUIDFHUHGVWLSSOHV EHWZHHQVXFFHVVLYH
CR
JHQHUDWLRQV RIFDOFLWHFHPHQW/HIWSDUDOOHOQLFROV5LJKW&URVVHGQLFROV
US
)LJ7DOXVEUHFFLDVLQILHOGDQGWKLQVHFWLRQDQGNH\RXWFURSVRIQRUPDOIDXOWV$ 7KLQ
AN
VHFWLRQRIWDOXVEUHFFLDJUDLQVWRQHPDWUL[3DUDOOHOQLFROV% 'HWDLORISUHFHHGLQJSKRWR *UDLQVWRQHPDWUL[RIPL[HGFDOFLOLWKLFFKHUWIUDJPHQWFRPSRVLWLRQ&URVVHGQLFROV& 8QLW
M
$1:SDUW1RWHYDULDEOHGHJUHHRIOLWKLILFDWLRQDQGEDFNZHDWKHULQJ'RWVERXQGDU\
D
EHWZHHQXQLW$DQGRYHUO\LQJXQOLWKLILHGVFUHHZLWKODUJHLQWUDFODVWVL RIWDOXVEUHFFLDV
TE
:LGWKRIYLHZaP' 5RDGFXWDFURVV&HUDVROLIDXOWORFDWLRQLQ)LJVHH)LJ 7KH WRSRIWKHIDXOW]RQHLVDFDFLULWHFF LQVKDUSFRQWDFWUHGVWLSSOHV WRWKHGRZQIDXOWHGWDOXV
CE P
EUHFFLDWE 7KHIDXOWFRUHLVDQXOWUDFDWDFODVLWH
AC
GZOZKLWHOLQHVVKRZVWUDWD DORQJD5LHGHOVSOD\ RIWKHPDLQIDXOWa EHWZHHQFDWDFODVLWHDQGWDOXVEUHFFLDWE
ACCEPTED MANUSCRIPT
)LJ0LFURIDEULFVRIIDXOWFRUHV$ 7KLQVHFWLRQRIXOWUDFDWDFODVLWHFRUHRIWKH&HUDVROL IDXOWORFDWLRQ)LJ 1RWH FORXG\IDEULFRIPLFULWHWRPLFURVSDUWRSVHXGRVSDU GLVVROXWLRQSRUHVEODFN OLQHGE\FDOFLWHFHPHQWDQG LQWUDEUHFFLDWLRQE\GLVVROXWLRQ IROORZHGE\SUHFLSLWDWLRQRIFDOFLWHFHPHQW&URVVHGQLFROV% &XWVODERIXOWUDFDWDFODVLWH IURPWKH&HUDVROLIDXOWFRUH1RWHLQWUDEUHFFLDRIGLVVROXWLRQFODVWVDIHZODEHOHGGF
IP
T
FHPHQWHGE\FDOFLWHDQGYHVLFXODURSHQSRUHVYSDIHZODEHOHGE\DUURZV & 7KLQVHFWLRQ RIVDPSOHRIVXEILJXUH%1RWH GLVVROXWLRQFODVWVGF DQGLQWHUVWLWLDOFDOFLWHFHPHQW
CR
VKDUSFRQWDFWUHGDUURZWLSV RIWUXQFDWHGFDOFLWHFU\VWDOVWRRYHUO\LQJXOWUDFDWDFODVLWHZKLFK
US
LQWXUQLVULGGOHGE\GLVVROXWLRQYXJVOLQHGZLWKFDOFLWHFHPHQW3DUDOOHOQLFROV' 'HWDLORI VXEILJXUH&6ROXWLRQFODVWVOLQHGE\VXFFHVVLYH JHQHUDWLRQV RIFDOFLWHFHPHQWWKDWDUH
AN
VHSDUDWHGE\HSLVRGHVRIGLVVROXWLRQDQGSUHFLSLWDWLRQRIPLFULWLFFHPHQW3DUDOOHOQLFROV( 'HWDLORIVXEILJXUH&1RWHVKDUSERXQGDU\EHWZHHQWUXQFDWHGFDOFLWHFU\VWDOVDUURZWLSVLQ
M
LQVHW DQGRYHUO\LQJXOWUDFDWDFODVLWHZLWKGLVVROXWLRQYXJVEODFN DQGDQLQWUDEUHFFLD
D
FHPHQWHGE\FDOFLWH&URVVHGQLFROV) 'HWDLORIVDPSOHVKRZQLQVXEILJXUH%5DIWVRI
TE
ULSSHGXSFDOFLWHFHPHQWIORDWLQDPDWUL[RIXOWUDFDWDFODVLWH3DUDOOHOQLFROV
CE P
)LJ0LFURIDEULFVRIIDXOWFRUHVDQGIDXOWLQJRIWDOXV$% %DFNVFDWWHUHGHOHFWURQ PLFURVFRSLFLPDJHVRIXOWUDFDWDFODVLWHRI&HUDVROLIDXOWORFDWLRQ)LJ 1RWH JUDLQ
AC
VL]HVIURPa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
ACCEPTED MANUSCRIPT
GHIRUPDWLRQ]RQHDIHZPHWHUVLQZLGWKQRFODVWIUDFWXUHZDVREVHUYHG:LGWKRIYLHZaP ) 5RDGFXWDWORFDWLRQFI)LJVDQG 7DOXVEUHFFLDVRIXQLW$WRSZKLWHGRWV FXWE\ IDXOWVUHGGDVKHGOLQHV 1RWHWLOWHGVWUDWLILFDWLRQV RIEUHFFLDV5HGGDVKHGVXUIDFH LVDIUDFWXUHFRDWHGZLWKVSHOHRWKHPIORZVWRQHVHH)LJ&'(DQG) $ERYHDQLQWHUYDO RIXQOLWKLILHGVFUHHFRQWDLQVOHYHOVRIVRLOVDQGLQWUDFODVWVL RIWDOXVEUHFFLDVFI)LJ'
IP
T
1RWHWUXQFDWLRQZKLWHDUURZV RIVWUDWDDORQJWKHVRLOFRYHUHGVORSH:LGWKRIYLHZaP
CR
)LJ7DOXVEUHFFLDVZLWKFUXVKHGOLWKRFODVWV$ 2SHQZRUNEUHFFLDULFKLQFODVWVWKDWZHUH
US
FUXVKHGZKLOHHPEHGGHGLQWKHVHGLPHQW:KLWHUHFWDQJOHDUHDRIVXEILJXUH%3HQFP % 'HWDLORIFUXVKHGFODVWV3HQLVFPLQZLGWK& 2SHQZRUNEUHFFLDZLWKFODVWVFUXVKHG
AN
ZKLOHHPEHGGHGLQWKHVHGLPHQW,QVHW&UXVKHGFKHUWQRGXOH' 2SHQZRUNEUHFFLDZLWK FODVWVFUXVKHGLQVLWX7KHLQWHUVWLWLDOVSDFHLVODUJHO\ILOOHGZLWKIUDJPHQWVRIIRUPHUO\ODUJHU
M
FODVWV( 7KLQVHFWLRQRIFUXVKHGFREEOHRIDQRSHQZRUNEUHFFLDDWORFDWLRQFI)LJ
D
3DUDOOHOQLFROV) 7KLQVHFWLRQRIRSHQZRUNEUHFFLDDWORFDWLRQFI)LJ 1RWH ZLGH
TE
LQWHUVWLWLDOSRUHILOOHGZLWKFDOFLWHFHPHQW HDUOLHUIUDFWXUHUHFRUGHGE\DFDWDFODVWLFEUHFFLD ZLWKPDWUL[FERXWOLQHGZLWKZKLWHVWLSSOHV DQG ILWWHGERXQGDULHVDQGORFDOGLVVROXWLRQ
CE P
SLWWLQJRIFODVWV3DUDOOHOQLFROV
AC
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
ACCEPTED MANUSCRIPT
SODQDUFRQWDFWVUHGGRWV &URVVHGQLFROVGDUNILHOGLOOXPLQDWLRQ' 7KLQVHFWLRQRIWDOXV EUHFFLD/LPHVWRQHFODVWVOVW DUHRYHUODLQE\FDOFLWHFHPHQWF LQWHUQDOVHGLPHQWLV FDOFLWHFODVWLFZDFNHWRSDFNVWRQH DQRWKHUFHPHQWIULQJHF DQGLQWHUQDOVHGLPHQWLV ZLWKFODVWVRIFDOFLWHFU\VWDOV&URVVHGQLFROVGDUNILHOGLOOXPLQDWLRQ( 7KLQVHFWLRQRI RSHQZRUNEUHFFLDFFODVWVRIFKHUW 1RWH SDWFK\GLVWULEXWLRQRILQWHUVWLWLDOFHPHQWLQ
IP
T
GHQVHO\SDFNHGFODVWIDEULFVDUURZV DQG ILWWHGERXQGDULHVRIPDQ\FODVWV&URVVHG QLFROV) 3DWFKHVRIFODVWVZLWKSODQDUFRQWDFWVUHGGRWV 6FDOHDSSOLHVWRERWKLPDJHV
CR
&URVVHGQLFROVGDUNILHOGLOOXPLQDWLRQ
US
)LJ)DXOWFRDWLQJIORZVWRQHDQGLWVGHIRUPDWLRQ$ )ORZVWRQHRQWKHXOWUDFDWDFODVLWH
AN
FRUHXF RIWKH&HUDVROLIDXOWFI)LJ' &URVVHGQLFROV% )ORZVWRQHRQWKH&HUDVROL IDXOWFRUHFI)LJ' 8OWUDFDWDFODVLWHXF LVRYHUODLQE\LQWHUYDORIILEURXVFDOFLWH
M
LQWHUFDODWHGZLWKODPLQDHRIOLPHPXG LQWHUYDORIFRQWLQXRXVIORZVWRQHJURZWKDQG
D
LQWHUYDORIGHQGULWLFVNHOHWDOFDOFLWHDQGLQILOWUDWHGOLPHPXG&URVVHGQLFROV& )UDFWXUHG
TE
WDOXVEUHFFLDDGMDFHQWWRIORZVWRQHFRDWHGIUDFWXUHFI)LJ) 1RWHILWWHGFODVWERXQGDULHV IULQJHGE\FHPHQW5LJKWPDUJLQ&RDWLQJRIVSHOHRWKHPFDOFLWHVSF &URVVHGQLFROV'
CE P
'HWDLORIVXEILJXUH&0XOWLSKDVHIUDFWXUDWLRQRIOLWKRFODVWVFHPHQWVDQGLQWHUQDOVHGLPHQWV &URVVHGQLFROVGDUNILHOGLOOXPLQDWLRQ() 8SSHUSDUWRIIORZVWRQHOD\HUVHH)LJ)
AC
1RWHWZLQQHGFDOFLWHFU\VWDOVWZF LQWKHORZHUSDUWDQGOD\HURIEURNHQFDOFLWHFU\VWDOVFWF DORQJWKHWRS(&URVVHGQLFROVWRSWRULJKW)&URVVHGQLFROVGDUNILHOGLOOXPLQDWLRQWRS XS )LJ3ORWRIVWDEOHLVRWRSHUDWLRVRIR[\JHQDQGFDUERQLQFOXGLQJ EHGURFNFODVWVRI WDOXVEUHFFLDV ILQHJUDLQHGIDXOWFDWDFODVLWHV LQWHUVWLWLDOFHPHQWVRIWDOXVEUHFFLDVDQG IORZVWRQHFUXVWVDORQJIUDFWXUHV'LIIHUHQWV\PEROVGRWVFURVVHVHWF UHIHUWRGLIIHUHQW URFNVDPSOHV
ACCEPTED MANUSCRIPT
)LJ6RLOVXVHGWRFRQVWUDLQWKHDJHRIWDOXVGHSRVLWLRQ$ 1:SDUWRIRXWFURSFI)LJV DQG +HUHWKHNDVRLOZKLWHGRWV LVGHIRUPHGLQWRDUHFXPEHQWIROGWKDWVWULNHV VXESDUDOOHOWRWKHIRUPHUGHSRVLWLRQDOVWULNHRIWKHVFUHHVORSH:LGWKRIYLHZaP% 6RXWKHDVWHUQFRQWLQXDWLRQRIWKHVRLOVKRZQLQVXEILJXUH$0DUNHGSLQFKDQGVZHOOSUREDEO\
IP
T
UHVXOWVIURPGHIRUPDWLRQ+DPPHUHQFLUFOHG LVFPLQOHQJWK& 2XWFURSRIND VRLOVKRZLQJXSZDUGFRQYH[SURWUXVLRQVS RIVFUHHDQGLQWHUFDODWHGLQYROXWLRQVRIWKHVRLO
CR
5HGDUURZSLSHVWUXFWXUHRIVFUHH:LGWKRIYLHZP,QVHW5HGDUURZVKRZVSLSHVWUXFWXUH
US
RIVFUHHWKDWFURVVFXWVWKHVRLO' 7KUHHVWUXFWXUDOO\WLOWHGVRLOV NDVRLOV VHH)LJV DQG LQWKHSDFNDJHRIXQOLWKLILHGVFUHHEHWZHHQXQLW$DQG%UHVSHFWLYHO\FI)LJV%
AN
& 7KHVHVRLOVDUHWUXQFDWHGDWWKHSUHVHQWVORSHVXUIDFHFI)LJV)DQG 6DPSOHVIRU UDGLRFDUERQDJHVZHUHH[FDYDWHGIURPWKHORZHUDQGWKHXSSHUVRLOOHYHO$ERYHWKH
M
RXWZHDWKHUHGWDOXVEUHFFLDVRIXQLW%DUHVHHQ:LGWKRIYLHZLQIRUHJURXQGaP
D
TE
)LJ$ 6XPPDU\RIVWUDWLJUDSKLFDUFKLWHFWXUHDQGUDGLRFDUERQDJHUDQJHVRIVRLOVLQWKH &HUDVROLH[SRVXUHORFDWLRQ)LJFI)LJ % 6NHWFKRIYHUWLFDODUUDQJHPHQWDQG
CE P
GHIRUPDWLRQDQGVXPPDU\VHFWLRQWKURXJK&HUDVROLIDXOWFI)LJ 6HHWH[WIRUIXUWKHU
AC
GHVFULSWLRQDQGGLVFXVVLRQ
)LJ+\SRWKHVLVWRH[SODLQ GLVFUHSDQF\EHWZHHQWDOXVWKLFNQHVVDQGYHUWLFDOIDXOW WKURZDQG FRQWDFWRIWDOXVZLWKXOWUDFDWDFODVWLFIDXOWFRUHVWKDWIRUPHGLQODUJHUGHSWKV7R EULQJWKHWDOXVRUWDOXVEUHFFLDVLQWRFRQWDFWZLWKXOWUDFDWDFODVWLFIDXOWFRUHVHURVLRQDO GHJUDGDWLRQRIWKHODQGVXUIDFHGXULQJRUDIWHUIDXOWLQJLVUHTXLUHG7KHSUHVHUYHGWDOXV VXFFHVVLRQLQFRQWDFWZLWKWKHXOWUDFDWDFODVWLFIDXOWFRUHVWKXVDFFXPXODWHGRQO\GXULQJWKH ODWHVWLQFUHPHQWVRIIDXOWDFWLYLW\
ACCEPTED MANUSCRIPT
7DEOH6XPPDU\RIVHGLPHQWDU\IDFLHVRIWDOXVVXFFHVVLRQVDUUDQJHGDFFRUGLQJWRWKHILHOG DSSHDUDQFHRIEHGV$EEUHYLDWLRQVPJV PHDQJUDLQVL]HVRU VRUWLQJDFFRUGLQJWR/RQJLDUX )DFLHV$
'HSRVLWVRIGU\DQGRUDTXHRXV JUDLQIORZV FRKHVLRQOHVV GHEULVIORZV DQGRI K\SHUFRQFHQWUDWHGIORZVLQ FKDQQHOIORZWRVKHHWIORZ /RZH*DUGQHUHWDO %HUWUDQHWDO 2]RXIHWDOYDQ6WHLMQHW DO%OLNUDDQG1HPHF 6RKQHWDO %HQYHQXWLDQG0DUWLQL 6DQGHUVHWDO2XHOOHW DQG*HUPDLQ
6KHHWVWROHQVHVXSWRDIHZ GP VWKLFNPD\VKRZSRVLWLYH UHOLHIFODVWVGLVRULHQWHGDQG PD\SURMHFWIURPEHGWRS FRQWDLQVSDWFKHVZLWKLQWHUVWLWLDO PDWUL[DQGRU QRQJHRSHWDO XQODPLQDWHGPDWUL[RIOLPH PXGVWRQHWRFDUERQDWHOLWKLF ZVNWWRSNVW PJVYHU\ILQHWRYHU\FRDUVH SHEEOHV VRUPRGHUDWHWRH[WUHPHO\SRRU
US
CR
6KHHWVWROHQVHVIHZFP VWRa FPWKLFNPRVWFODVWVZLWK>DE@ SODQHSDUDOOHOWRVWUDWLILFDWLRQ ORFDOGRZQVORSHRUXSVORSH FODVWLPEULFDWLRQ RXWVL]H FREEOHV PD\EHLQWHUFDODWHG PJVYHU\ILQHWRFRDUVHSHEEOHV VRUJRRGWRPRGHUDWHPD\ YDU\GRZQGLS
M
D
TE
6KHHWVWROHQVHVXSWRDIHZ GP VWKLFNPD\VKRZSRVLWLYH UHOLHIFODVWVGLVRULHQWHGDQG PD\SURMHFWIURPEHGWRS PDWUL[LVOLPHPXGVWRQHWR FDUERQDWHOLWKLFZVNWWRSNVWWR JUVWPDWUL[W\SLFDOO\ULFKLQ FHPHQWIULQJHG YHVLFXODU SRUHV PJVYHU\ILQHWRYHU\FRDUVH SHEEOHV VRUPRGHUDWHWRH[WUHPHO\SRRU
AC
CE P
&ODVWVXSSRUWHG EUHFFLDVZLWKLQWHUVWLWLDO PDWUL[ )DFLHVJURXS
6KHHWVWRJHQWOHOHQVHVDIHZ FP VWRFPWKLFN0DWUL[ VKRZVJUDLQVWRQHWRSDFNVWRQH WH[WXUH PJVILQHWRPHGLXPSHEEOHV VRUPRGHUDWHWRYHU\JRRG
5HPDUNV
&RPPRQIDFLHVLQWKHXSSHU SUR[LPDOVHJPHQWRIVFUHH VORSHV 7KLVIDFLHVFRPSULVHVDQ XQGHWHUPLQHGFRQWULEXWLRQRU RYHUSULQWE\VFUHHODGHQ VQRZ IORZVDQGSDUWLFOHFUHHS 6HH&RXVVRWDQG0HXQLHU DQG'DVJXSWD IRU GLVFXVVLRQRIK\SHUFRQFHQWUDWHG IORZFDWHJRU\
T
,QWHUSUHWDWLRQ UHIHUHQFHV
)DFLHV%
2ULJLQDOO\'HSRVLWVRIFRKHVLYH GHEULVIORZV )LVKHUYDQ6WHLMQ YDQ6WHLMQHWDO%HUWUDQ HWDO%OLNUDDQG1HPHF 6DQGHUVHWDO
AN
%UHFFLDVZLWKRSHQZRUN FODVWIDEULF )DFLHVJURXS
'HSRVLWIHDWXUHV
IP
&ODVWIDEULF
)DFLHV$
'HSRVLWVRIFRKHVLYHGHEULV IORZV UHIHUHQFHVDVDERYH
)DFLHV%
'HSRVLWVRIK\SHUFRQFHQWUDWHG IORZVWRORZYLVFRXVGHEULV IORZV UHIHUHQFHVDVDERYH
&RPPRQIDFLHVIURPSUR[LPDO WRGLVWDOVORSHVHJPHQWVRIVFUHH VORSHV 6HFRQGDU\RSHQZRUNIDEULF OLPHPXGG\SULPDU\PDWUL[ZDV SDUWO\HOXYLDWHGDQGRU GLVVROYHGDIWHUGHSRVLWLRQ %HGVRIVHFRQGDU\RSHQZRUN IDEULFDUHFRPPRQ
&RPPRQIDFLHVIURPSUR[LPDO WRGLVWDOVORSHVHJPHQWVRIVFUHH VORSH
8QFRPPRQEXWGLVWLQFW SUR[LPDOVHJPHQWRIVFUHH VORSHV
ACCEPTED MANUSCRIPT
7DEOH5DGLRFDUERQDJHVRIVLHYHGDQGDFLGZDVKHGRUJDQLFIUDFWLRQRIVRLOVDPSOHV6HH )LJ%IRUORFDWLRQRIVRLOLQWHUYDOV 3RVLWLRQ
)LHOGVDPSOHFRGH
$JHFDO%3
/DEFRGH
SUREDELOLW\ UHPDUNV
*5)% %HWD
M
D
TE
AC
CE P
NVRLOV FHQWHURI RXWFURS
NVRLOV FHQWHURI RXWFURS
NVRLOV FHQWHURI RXWFURS
NVRLOV FHQWHURI RXWFURS
NDVRLOV 6(HQGRI
T
NVRLOV FHQWHURI RXWFURS
IP
*5)$ %HWD
±
*5)& %HWD
*5)' %HWD * %HWD * %HWD *$6
± ± 6DPSOHZDVVSOLWLQODE SUHSDUDWLRQ ± 3UREDEO\FRQWDPLQDWHGE\ \RXQJHUKXPLFDFLGV LQILOWUDWHGIURPSUHURDGFXW WRSVRLO ± 3UREDEO\FRQWDPLQDWHGE\ \RXQJHUKXPLFDFLGV LQILOWUDWHGIURPSUHURDGFXW WRSVRLO ± 3UREDEO\FRQWDPLQDWHGE\ \RXQJHUKXPLFDFLGV LQILOWUDWHGIURPSUHURDGFXW WRSVRLO ±
CR
NVRLOV FHQWHURI RXWFURS
±
US
*$) %HWD *$) %HWD *$) %HWD
AN
NDVRLO 1:SDUWRI RXWFURS
NDVRLO 1:SDUWRI RXWFURS
NDVRLO 1:SDUWRI RXWFURS
± ± ±
ACCEPTED MANUSCRIPT RXWFURS
NDVRLOV 6(HQGRI RXWFURS
NDVRLOV 6(HQGRI RXWFURS
± ±
AC
CE P
TE
D
M
AN
US
CR
IP
T
%HWD *$6 %HWD *$6% %HWD
ACCEPTED MANUSCRIPT
7DEOH6XPPDU\RIIHDWXUHVVXJJHVWLYHRIQHRWHFWRQLFRUFRVHLVPLFGHIRUPDWLRQRISHEEO\ GHSRVLWVVXFFHVVLRQVRIVFUHHVORSHVDQGDOOXYLDOIDQV )HDWXUH
&KDUDFWHUL]DWLRQ
,QWHUSUHWDWLRQ
6WUDWDDUHGUDJJHGXSZDUG DORQJFRQWDFWVWUDWLILFDWLRQ PD\EHREOLWHUDWHGE\ GLIIHUHQWLDOPRYHPHQWDQG UHRULHQWDWLRQRIFODVWV
)ROGVZLWKVWURQJO\GLIIHUHQW RULHQWDWLRQRID[HV KHWHURD[LDOIROGV
)ROGD[HVPD\WUHQGSDUDOOHO WRQRUPDOWRGLVSODFHPHQW GLUHFWLRQRUWRDQ H[SRVHGSUHVXPHGIDXOW VXUIDFH
)DXOWVFRQMXJDWHIDXOWV ZLWKLQSHEEO\VXFFHVVLRQ
)DXOWVDQGFRQMXJDWHIDXOWV RIORZRIIVHWPD\EH LQGLFDWHGE\RXWZHDWKHULQJ
G\NHV XSWRDIHZ GHFLPHWHUVLQWKLFNQHVVWKDW DUHVWURQJO\GLVFRUGDQWWR VWUDWLILFDWLRQZLWKLQWKH G\NHVOLWKRFODVWVPD\EH LQWDFWRUFUDFNHG )DXOWSODQHVZLWKVWULDH 5LHGHORXWEUHDNVDQGRU ILEUHFDOFLWHVDUHPRUHUDUH &ODVWVFUDFNHGLQVLWXZKLOH HPEHGGHGZLWKLQVHGLPHQW 7\SLFDOO\FRQILQHGWR VSHFLILFVWUDWDRUSDWFKHV WKHUHLQ 0D\RFFXULQGLVWLQFW
JHQHUDWLRQV DVLQGLFDWHGE\ FURVVFXWWLQJUHODWLRQVKLSV 6HYHUDO JHQHUDWLRQV RI LQWHUVWLWLDOFHPHQWVWKDWDUH VKDUSO\VHSDUDWHGE\SKDVHV RIFHPHQWIUDFWXUDWLRQDQG GLVVROXWLRQ
'RZQWKURZRIVHGLPHQW VXFFHVVLRQDORQJIDXOW VXUIDFH
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
G\NHV )LJ(DQG) )DXOWLQJLQIXOO\OLWKLILHG WDOXVUHVXOWLQIDXOWVXUIDFHV ZLWKEULWWOHPLFURWHFWRQLF GLVSODFHPHQWLQGLFDWRUV VWULDH5LHGHORXWEUHDNV
AC
&UDFNHGOLWKRFODVWV
CE P
TE
D
M
AN
US
CR
IP
T
'UDJDORQJFRQWDFWWRIDXOW VXUIDFH
5HPDUNV )LJXUHUHIHUHQFH
*HQHUDWLRQV RILQWHUVWLWLDO FHPHQWV
,QWUDFODVWVRIWDOXVDQGRU DOOXYLDOIDQGHSRVLWV
&ODVWVXSWRERXOGHUVL]HRI OLWKLIHGWDOXVRUDOOXYLDOIDQ
&ODVWVDUHFUDFNHGE\ G\QDPLFRYHUORDGLQJGXULQJ FRVHLVPLFDFFHOHUDWLRQ
&UDFNHGFODVWVPD\DOVR UHVXOWIURPORDGLQJE\ RYHUULGLQJLFHVWUHDPV $EXQGDQWFUDFNHGFODVWV SUREDEO\UHODWHGWR HDUWKTXDNHV )LJV&DQG'
*URZWKRILQWHUVWLWLDOFHPHQW EHFDPHLQWHUUXSWHGE\ FRVHLVPLFIUDFWXUHW\SLFDOO\ IROORZHGE\GLVVROXWLRQ WKHQQH[WJHQHUDWLRQRI FHPHQWVWDUWHGWRSUHFLSLWDWH
&HPHQWIUDFWXUDWLRQPD\ DOVREHLQGXFHGE\RWKHU SURFHVVHVHJGLIIHUHQWLDO FRPSDFWLRQJODFLDOORDGLQJ )LJV(DQG)DQG' ,QWUDFODVWVDUHFRPPRQLQ WKHVWUDWLJUDSKLFDOO\WRSPRVW
,QWUDFODVWVSURGXFHGE\ QHRWHFWRQLFGLVLQWHJUDWLRQ
ACCEPTED MANUSCRIPT
(SLVRGLFGRZQIDXOWLQJRU FRVHLVPLFVKDNLQJGXULQJ VSHOHRWKHPJURZWK
AC
CE P
TE
D
M
AN
US
T
6SHOHRWKHPIORZVWRQHVHJ DORQJIUDFWXUHVLQWDOXV EUHFFLDV FRQWDLQLQJ HYLGHQFHRILQWHUPLWWHQW IUDFWXUDWLRQDQGLQWHUQDO EUHFFLDWLRQ
SDUWRIWDOXVVXFFHVVLRQVRI WKHFHQWUDO$SHQQLQHV ,QWUDFODVWVPD\DOVRUHVXOW IURPHURVLRQDOSURFHVVHV XQUHODWHGWRQHRWHFWRQLVP )LJV&DQG) ,QSHEEO\VXFFHVVLRQV IUDFWXUHGVSHOHRWKHPVPLJKW DOVRUHVXOWIURPRWKHU SURFHVVHVHJJODFLDO ORDGLQJXQVWHDG\ FRPSDFWLRQ )LJV)DQG$)
IP
DQGHURVLRQRIOLWKLILHGWDOXV VXFFHVVLRQV
CR
)UDFWXUHGVSHOHRWKHPV
GHSRVLWVHPEHGGHGLQ \RXQJHUWDOXVRUIDQ VHGLPHQWV
Figure 1
Figure 2
Figure 3
Figure 4
Figure 5
Figure 6
Figure 7
Figure 8
Figure 9
Figure 10
Figure 11
Figure 12
Figure 13
Figure 14
Figure 15