Sustainable energy strategy of Lithuanian Ignalina Nuclear Power Plant region for 2012–2035 as a chance for regional development

Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews 51 (2015) 1680–1696

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Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/rser

Sustainable energy strategy of Lithuanian Ignalina Nuclear Power Plant region for 2012–2035 as a chance for regional development Vygandas Gaigalis a,n, Antanas Markevicius b, Romualdas Skema a, Juozas Savickas b a b

Energy Efficiency Research and Information Centre, Lithuanian Energy Institute, Breslaujos g. 3, LT-44403 Kaunas, Lithuania Laboratory of Renewable Energy, Lithuanian Energy Institute, Breslaujos g. 3, LT-44403 Kaunas, Lithuania

art ic l e i nf o

a b s t r a c t

Article history: Received 6 June 2013 Received in revised form 27 May 2015 Accepted 8 July 2015

The article describes the Lithuanian energy policy and study on sustainable energy development and implementation of renewables in the important Lithuanian regions. For the estimations, the strategically substantial Lithuanian region with the decommissioned Ignalina Nuclear Power Plant (INPP) was selected. The sustainable Energy Strategy 2012–2035 for the INPP region development was prepared and the process of strategy preparation was overviewed. Recently, the reduction of inhabitants and the declining of dominant economy sectors in INPP region were observed. In the Strategy the energy supply and consumption tendencies in INPP region and its municipalities are studied, the final electricity consumption and district heating demand was calculated, the heat and electricity generation from RES was highlighted. The analysis of RES implementation possibilities in Ignalina NPP region and its municipalities was carried out. The solar energy potential, the wind energy resources and the potential of wood fuel in INPP region were examined. The potential RES estimation criterions were set. The theoretical and technical potentials of the final energy from RES in INPP region were defined. The estimated theoretical energy potential in INPP region reached about 1418 GWh/year and was about twice higher than the needs of INPP region (650 GWh/year). The calculated technical final energy potential from RES in INPP region was about 350 GWh/year. In the article, the energy needs in the INPP region and its municipalities for 2011 were defined and development targets for 2035 were predicted. The emissions of CO2 in region in 2011 and targets for 2035 were shown. The activities of the Action Plan in INPP region and its municipalities during the period 2012–2035 were foreseen, and the financing opportunities were listed. & 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Keywords: Sustainable energy development Energy strategy Renewable energy sources

Contents 1. 2.

3.

4.

Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Lithuanian Ignalina NPP region Energy Strategy 2012–2035. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.1. The process of strategy preparation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.2. General overview of the Ignalina NPP region and its energy sector . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.2.1. Geographical situation, inhabitants and dominant economy sectors . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.2.2. Energy supply and distribution by sectors . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Methodology of strategy preparation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.1. Scenario building . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.2. Development of the Action Plan . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.3. Implementation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.4. Indicators . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Results . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.1. Energy consumption in Ignalina NPP region and its municipalities . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

1681 1683 1683 1683 1683 1683 1684 1685 1685 1685 1686 1686 1686

Abbreviations: BSR, Baltic Sea Region; EU, European Union; GHG, Greenhouse Gases; INPP, Ignalina Nuclear Power Plant; JSC, Joint Stock Company; LEI, Lithuanian Energy Institute; NGO, Nongovernmental Organizations; NPP, Nuclear Power Plant; PEA, Public Energy Alternatives; RDA, Regional Development Agency; RES, Renewable Energy Sources; toe, tons of oil equivalent; TWh, Tera Watt hours (1012 W); W, Watt (electrical power unit) n Corresponding author. Tel.: þ 370 37 401855; fax: þ370 37 351271. E-mail address: [email protected] (V. Gaigalis). http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.rser.2015.07.047 1364-0321/& 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

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4.2.

Analysis of the RES implementation possibilities in Ignalina NPP region . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.2.1. The solar energy potential. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.2.2. The wind energy resources . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.2.3. The potential of wood fuel . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.2.4. The potential RES estimation criterions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.3. INPP region energy needs and development targets . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.4. The planned activities in INPP region and their description . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5. Discussion . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5.1. Advantages and disadvantages of RES as compared to the use of the new NPP in the region . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6. Conclusions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Acknowledgments . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . References . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

During a long time the fossil energy sources (besides the nuclear energy) played a dominating role in energy production in all regions of the world. The usage of fossil sources, such as oil or carbon, is problematic due to their effects on climate change and their finiteness. These, together with the rising costs for fossil energy sources were observed in recent years (which partly depend on their finiteness) and the presumption that these costs will remain on a high level and rise continuously in medium and long term constitute the overall background of such research. From economic and ecologic points of view, it is not reasonable to base energy supply on fossil energy sources. In this context, municipalities and local governments had a key role in a number of ways. Due to their closeness to citizens, they had excellent potential to guide the process of change by changing their own energy use in municipal operations (corporate sector). They had an opportunity to lead change among citizens and businesses (community sector) and potentially local industry. On the local level, energy is used in many ways, and municipalities are responsible for public services in terms of energy provision, etc. This means that there is a potential for improvement on a municipal level. Municipalities have to take responsibility for climate protection and local energy security and they should play an integral role in achieving the Kyoto goals and beyond. Actions on the highest political levels are required, but worthless without the actions on the lowest levels, the ambitious goals will not be reached. Taking into account not only the ecological issues, but also the economic ones, the consequences of rising costs are manifold. With respect to municipalities and counties, it should be stated that they would be affected by the increase of costs for services of public interest, such as transportation or the provision of heat and electricity. Resulting from these rising expenses, an increasing financial pressure for public utilities such as schools, sport facilities, or the town hall, as well as burdens for the local economies are arising. In addition, small towns often have to face a decreasing number of inhabitants, especially in rural areas. Lithuania with other five Baltic Sea Region (BSR) countries, Estonia, Finland, Germany, Latvia and Poland together with experts from various scientific areas were implementing the scientific research BSR program 2007–2013 project “Public Energy Alternatives – Sustainable energy strategy as a chance for regional development (PEA)” [1]. The project was implemented by 21 partners: eleven governmental institutions, seven scientific research institutes, three coordinating partners. It was a meaningful project through which the renewable energy sources (RES) were promoted as a driving force for business, technology, and engineering in all BSR. The objective of the project was to promote regional development by improving energy conditions and accomplishing the tasks of energy saving and efficient energy use. The goal of the project was to accumulate, share and implement innovative energy technologies by transmitting the acquired experience to the entire BSR. For this purpose, new educational modules for energy-related leading executives and staff,

obliged to implement and further develop the regional strategy and means, were created. The main result of the project was the development of sustainable regional energy strategies and its implementation in the important BSR regions. One of the main aims of the project was to foster regional development through the reduction of energy related costs (evaluate energy consumption, use existing energy saving potentials, find and define new ways for energy saving), added value based on new value chains, and sustainable technological innovations. Energy strategies, which positively affect the economic situation of the regions, are to be developed and implemented. For some of the partners the developed strategies should lead to establishing self-sufficient energy regions. The developed solutions were collected, exchanged, and translated in order to make them usable for all partner regions and beyond. Training modules for energy related staff, users, and decision makers were prepared in order

60 50

2005 2020

40

%

1. Introduction

1687 1687 1688 1688 1688 1689 1690 1690 1690 1693 1695 1695

30 20 10 0 Estonia

Finland

Germany

Latvia

Lithuania

Poland

Fig. 1. The share of RES in gross final energy consumption in 2005 and targets for 2020 for Lithuania and other 6 Baltic Sea Region countries implementing the PEA project.

IGNALINA NPP REGION is energy independent and environmentally friendly region which is receptive to energy and technological innovations

Ignalina district municipality

Zarasai district municipality

Ignalina and Zarasai are districts with a high focus on environment, energy saving, education, ecology, healthy and active lifestyle.

Visaginas municipality

Visaginas is an innovative and receptive city of energy technologies, where business and science strongly cooperates with each other in energy sector.

Fig. 2. The vision of Ignalina NPP region and its municipalities.

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to create, deepen, and enhance knowledge. Thus, it was possible for them to further develop strategies and measures on their own. Article 4 of the renewable energy Directive (2009/28/EC) requires EU Member States to submit national renewable energy action plans [2]. These plans, to be prepared in accordance with the template published by the Commission, provide detailed roadmaps of how each Member State expects to reach its legally binding 2020 target for the share of renewable energy in their final energy consumption. The three basic objectives to use renewable energy resources and to increase the energy efficiency which should be reached by 2020 are: Reduction of the primary energy consumption by 20% (as compared to the planned development tendency); Increase of the rate of the RES by 20% in the total energy consumption; Reduction of the greenhouse gas emission by 20% in comparison with the level of 1990. These targets are bound with individual Member State targets. Energy consumption from RES in 2005 and targets for 2020 years for Lithuania and other six Baltic Sea Region countries implementing the PEA project are shown in Fig. 1 [3,4]. The shares of RES in final energy consumption targets are quite different in BSR countries. Finland and Latvia already had a share of around 30% in 2005, but Poland and Germany shares were well below 10%. For example, the Latvian target is to increase the share of renewable in gross final energy consumption by 40% until 2020. The Lithuanian target is to increase the share of renewable in gross final energy consumption from 17% in 2005 to 23% by 2020. Reaching these targets will require a huge mobilization of investments in renewable energies not only for Lithuania but also for all countries. Energy Policy and Strategy of Lithuania up to 2010 and projections for the future were overviewed by Lithuanian Energy Institute (LEI) experts in [5]. The most important strategic objectives outlined were: 1. Energy security; 2. Efficient use of energy; 3. Introduction of competitive principles in the energy sector; 4. Gradual integration into the energy systems of the European Union; 5. Diversification of primary energy sources and ways of their imports, rapid increase of renewable and local energy resources, and reduction of the share of natural gas in the energy mix in Lithuania. Construction of a new combined cycle unit with a capacity of 450 MW at the Lithuanian thermal power plant was foreseen, and the building of powerful high-voltage lines connecting the grid systems of Lithuania with Poland and Sweden were highlighted as major strategic priorities. Also, the continuity of usage of the nuclear energy by building a new NPP, capable to ensure the needs of all three Baltic republics and the region was forecasted. The objectives of diffusion of renewable energy in the Nordic countries (Finland, Sweden, Denmark and Norway) [6] are: Energy security and diversification; Energy efficiency; Economic efficiency and CO2 reduction. Given objectives coincide with the Lithuanian ones. Renewable energy supply chain in Ostrobothnia region (Finland) and Vaasa city [7] (innovative framework) describes the diffusion of renewable energy technologies in the regional levels and is one of the good case studies to be followed by Lithuania and other countries and regions. Promoting the RES over the other countries showed the perspective opportunities for penetration of the renewable energy sources in to energy mix [8–10] and gave the benefits brought by these sources in terms of Greenhouse Gases (GHG) emission avoidance. Potential of the RES depends upon geographical, technical and economic limitations [11]. Evaluation of such potential proposed methodology was important for our study. Comprehensive overview of the renewable energy sector in Romania, Greece and Iran [12–14], analysis of the challenges, prospects, environmental impacts, policies for sustainable development and the current status of the main RES showed that energy security is the ability of countries to deliver the energy resources needed to ensure their welfare and it implies secure supply. Publications [15–17] were a good background for our recent study. A guidance chart for most probable solution directions in

sustainable energy development was presented in [15]. Sustainability assessment methods and their application to harmonization of policies and sustainability monitoring were defined in [16]. Application of the integrated indicators for monitoring the National Energy Strategy was analyzed by Lithuanian experts in [17]. Renewable energy policy in Lithuania within the framework of the National Energy Efficiency Program was described by LEI specialists in [18–20]: implementation of the RES projects within the framework of the government policy to promote RES usage due to the requirements of the EU was studied, and energy sector overview, energy intensity trends, policies and measures targeting energy efficiency in Lithuania were analyzed. The main objectives of the Lithuanian state in energy sector, setting the national targets for the implementation of strategic initiatives, were defined in the National Energy Strategy [21]. A considerable portion 63% of the electricity in the world in 2010 was generated from the fossil fuels (natural gas and coal): renewable energy supplied 18%, and nuclear energy accounted of only 14% of the electricity demands [22]. Characteristics and prospects of renewable energy and nuclear power towards sustainable development were analyzed in [23]: both technologies offer substantial contribution to climate change by effectively producing limited amounts of GHG emissions, which are close to zero. Lithuanian policy and prospects in electricity production were studied in [24] and it was stated that Lithuanian power sector must focus on the implementation of renewable energy projects, penetration of new technologies and consideration of the future opportunities for renewables. For the study of RES implementation possibilities in Lithuania, the Ignalina Nuclear Power Plant (INPP) region was selected as the most actual, attractive and important Lithuanian region, with the decommissioned Nuclear Power Plant (NPP). The Ignalina NPP produced about 70–80% of the electrical energy necessary for Lithuania. According to the requirements of the European Union (EU) for the usage of unsafe technologies, the plant was decommissioned at the end of 2009 [25]. This decision caused many problems for INPP region municipalities: the unemployment and migration to other regions and abroad increased, energy prices raised, many local trades disappeared. For softening the negative outcomes of the NPP shutdown, the Ignalina NPP region was founded, and the INPP Regional Development Agency was established [26]. Lithuania's tasks for solving the actual regional problems (together with the BSR program 2007–2013 PEA project implementation) were the study of RES implementation possibilities in Ignalina NPP region and preparation of Energy Strategy for this region. For the successful implementation of such tasks, five responsible Lithuanian institutions were selected: Lithuanian Energy Institute (LEI), Ignalina NPP Regional Development Agency (RDA), Ignalina district Municipality administration, Visaginas Municipality administration and Zarasai district Municipality administration. The core competencies of the Ignalina NPP RDA were to organize and implement the preparation of the social and economic projects dealing with the mitigation of the negative consequences arising from the decommissioning of Ignalina NPP. In anticipation of the job losses resulting from the shutdown of the INPP, it was seen as a mechanism for coordinating the development actions of both the state and civil society in the region of the three district municipalities, namely, Visaginas, Ignalina and Zarasai. Ignalina NPP RDA was expected to prepare the Strategy on energy saving and alternatives and a plan of measures for the period of 2011–2035. This strategy should allow having a plan for regional energy sector development for the period of 25 years. The basic information on PEA project work directions and achievements was published in 2011 in a Lithuanian journal “Thermal Technology” [27,28]. As has been planned, technical projects for renovation of several public buildings in the region of INPP were prepared, which enabled assessing energy saving potential and laid a

V. Gaigalis et al. / Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews 51 (2015) 1680–1696

firm basis for building renovation. While implementing the project, the municipalities mounted solar collectors on several public buildings, which became the first (pilot) investment of alternative solar energy into the public sector of the region. The result of the work was the preparation of Regional Energy Strategy and implementation of the planned means, including the compendium of Baltic Energy Strategies.

2. Lithuanian Ignalina NPP region Energy Strategy 2012–2035 2.1. The process of strategy preparation The INPP region energy strategy preparation (as the successful PEA project implementation) was fostered by EU environmental and energy ambitions – to reduce the CO2 emissions by 20%, to increase the energy efficiency by 20% and to increase the energy production from RES by 20%. In the Directive of the EU Parliament and Council on Promotion of RES implementation, it was defined that Lithuania is obliged to use no less than 23% of energy from RES by the end of 2020. Striving to achieve such obligations and to keep up with worldwide tendencies, Lithuanian INPP region had to set the straight guidelines in the energy sector: therefore, Ignalina NPP region Energy Strategy 2012–2035 was successfully prepared [29]. The strategy was prepared in close cooperation with the Ignalina NPP regional development agency and representatives of Ignalina district, Visaginas town and Zarasai district municipalities, and other responsible institutions. One of the main aims of the strategy was to develop the local RES and intelligent energy use action plans for Ignalina NPP region and its municipalities for the period of 2012–2035. To achieve such aim, the following tasks were set: (1) the analysis of local RES potential in INPP region; (2) the analysis of increasing potential of energy efficiency. By executing these tasks and evaluating the expectations of the local society, the vision of the entire Ignalina NPP region was formulated: “Ignalina NPP region is an energy independent and environmentally friendly region, which is receptive to energy and technological innovations”, Fig. 2. Considering the differences of the INPP region municipalities and the future development directions, written in existing strategic documents, the two separate visions were formulated for INPP region municipalities: 1. Ignalina and Zarasai are districts with a high focus on environment, energy saving, education, ecology, healthy and active lifestyle; 2. Visaginas is an innovative city receptive to energy technologies, where business and science strongly cooperate with each other in energy sector. Energy Strategy was prepared for the period of 2012–2035. As it is a very long period, during which a lot of circumstances could change (for example, in Lithuanian national energy strategy, it was stated that new 1.2 TW Nuclear Power Plant station should be built till 2020 near Visaginas), a necessity for strategy updates will possibly arise. It was very difficult to forecast and plan the activities having so many uncertainties about funding possibilities and national policy, which was changing quite often. Moreover, the implementation of the strategy depends on municipalities' determination and financial resources. The strategy reflects recently dominating global tendencies, when the representatives of households, public and private sectors are proceeding to the sustainable energy consumption. The strategy was prepared by taking into consideration all Lithuanian international obligations, law acts, strategic documents related to energy sector and the “Baseline study of the Lithuanian Ignalina NPP region” worked out by LEI. The strategy provides the opportunities to attract

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the investments into the region, to apply the potential of the local RES, to save energy; therefore its implementation will allow solving the actual regional problems: insufficient use of local and renewable energy sources; low energy efficiency in the buildings; inefficient and unreasonable use of technologies and equipment; deficiency of the local electricity production capacities; needs of heating modernization; habits of population, insufficient education on environmental protection; lack of investments; not expanded scientific potential. The goals foreseen in the strategy will allow reducing the energy consumption, increasing the local and renewable energy use and reducing the greenhouse gases exhaustion. The education of society and involvement into environmental protection projects, application of RES potential available in the region would allow reducing the needs of imported fuel and negative influence on the environment. The support of the local initiatives and promotion of the internal investments would allow creating the intelligent trade sector. Not undertaking the effective and well-timed energy saving measures and actions will raise the energy consumption for heating and lighting of buildings, which reduces the economical and social conditions of the region. The strategy was committed to municipalities, inhabitants and trade enterprises. Striving to implement the goals set in the strategy, the separate action plans were prepared for every Ignalina NPP region municipality [30–32].

2.2. General overview of the Ignalina NPP region and its energy sector 2.2.1. Geographical situation, inhabitants and dominant economy sectors Ignalina NPP region occupies about 4.3% of Lithuanian territory and is situated in the Eastern part of Lithuania (Fig. 3). There are three municipalities are in the region: Ignalina district municipality, Zarasai district municipality and Visaginas town municipality. Lithuanian Energy Institute has prepared the “Baseline study for the Lithuanian Ignalina NPP region” with the general description of the region and its current energy situation [33,34]. The analysis of the RUE and RES potentials was conducted and the future energy supply and demand options were predicted. A clear tendency of reduction of the number of inhabitants in the INPP region and its municipalities was observed. During the period of 2000–2013, the total number of inhabitants in the INPP region declined by about 26%, from 76,893 to 56,665, Fig. 4 [33,35]. The greatest digression in INPP region was observed in 2010–2011 (after shutting down the Ignalina NPP), when the number of inhabitants reduced by about 12%, from 67,574 to 59,648. The strongest tendency was observed in Visaginas municipality where the number of inhabitants decreased by about 20%, from 28,335 to 22,708. The inhabitants migrated to other regions and abroad. Twice fewer inhabitants left the region in Zarasai and Ignalina district municipalities. Further decrease of inhabitants in INPP region is hard to forecast, because the migration will depend on the closure processes of the decommissioned INPP and the decisions of the Government on the construction of the new NPP in Ignalina region in Visaginas, also on the realization of social-economy programs in municipalities and the possibilities of the trade development and other factors. In Ignalina and Zarasai district municipalities, the biggest part of economic activities was related to service sector 67–73%, industrial sector 15–23%, agriculture, hunting and forestry – around 5%, construction sector – 5–6% of overall economy structure (Fig. 5) [29].

2.2.2. Energy supply and distribution by sectors After shutdown of the INPP, the dominant kind of primary energy in INPP region became an imported natural gas, which amounted to 74% in 2010, Fig. 6(A).

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Lithuania

Ignalina NPP region

Fig. 3. The map of Lithuania and geographical location of Ignalina NPP region. 76893

The number of inhabitants

76000

Agriculture 75593 74749 73877

Industry

73039 72080 71096

72000

70197

68000

69322 68402

Construction 67564

Services

64000 59648

60000

58055 56665

56000 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

INPP region

Ignalina mun. Visaginas mun. Zarasai mun.

Fig. 5. The dominant economy sectors in Ignalina NPP region and its municipalities.

31000

The number of inhabitants

29000 27000

Distribution of energy by sector electricity, heating and transportation in the INPP region are shown in Fig. 6(B). About 84.2% of energy used in INPP region goes to heating, 12.7% – to electricity and 3.1% – for transportation sectors.

25000

23000 21000 19000 17000 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Visaginas municipality

Zarasai region municipality

Ignalina region municipality

Fig. 4. The reduction of inhabitants in INPP region (A) and its municipalities (B) in 2000–2013.

In the INPP region wood and wastes comprised 22% of the primary energy, imported heavy fuel oil – 3% and hydropower – 1% of the primary energy.

3. Methodology of strategy preparation Strategy preparation methodology was elaborated during of PEA project pursuance period. The entire process of a strategy development was divided into five stages. The framework of local sustainable strategy development is presented in Fig. 7. The first stage is a baseline study paper preparation [33], when mapping exercise and data collections are performed: they show the status quo of the region. This includes general information on

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1% 3%

3,1%

1685

12,7%

22%

Electricity

Wood and waste

Natural gas Heating Heavy fuel oil Transportation

Hydro power 84,2%

74%

Fig. 6. Primary energy supply (A) and distribution by sectors (B) in the INPP region in 2010.

Action plan leader MUNICIPALITY Responsible person Consulting: energy issues

Energy specialist

Consulting: publishing and marketing

:

Lithuanian Energy Institute • Advice and consulting • Trainings • Subsidies and other kind of

Region residents Business

Fig. 7. The framework of local sustainable strategy development.

the region (location, economic development, demographic development, size, and geographic background) and general information on energy issues such as development of production capacity, consumption, sources of energy production. It is important to analyze background data such as reasons for varying energy consumption, the mix and size of the energy consumption, etc. The collection of relevant data on the region is performed in the form of a SWOT analysis by identifying strong and weak points of the region and its potential for future development and identification of planning potentials and threats. The resulting baseline paper is a prerequisite for developing the Regional Energy Strategy. 3.1. Scenario building The development of scenarios shows the impact of a certain chosen strategy. Scenarios were worked out on the basis of technical potential and different criteria [36]. They show the impact of a strategy that focuses on one source only (for example a scenario where all the energy demands are generated by wind turbines) or a strategy using a combination of sources: those scenarios are a common practice in the development of energy strategies. Further developed scenarios are:

    

An energy saving scenario A renewable energy scenario A scenario based on lowest investment costs A scenario based on lowest energy price for end users Lowest spatial impact Highest level of participation from stakeholders.

These scenarios will clarify the challenges and the process that the project planners will encounter and they can be used to facilitate the process of engaging different partners to become involved in the sustainable energy planning.

Ignalina NPP regional development agency

• Funding for projects • Advice and consulting

Municipality owned companies NGO Public health bureau Education institutions

Fig. 8. The structure of cooperation and strategy implementation.

3.2. Development of the Action Plan In order to ensure sustainability and durability of the regional energy strategies, it is necessary to work out action plans for implementation. These include the elaboration of concrete work, the definition and identification of actors and partners for regional implementation processes, setting the time frame and correspondences for different actions and defining the financial conditions (investments, rewards, expectations, thresholds). A further important part of the action plan is the activation of relevant public and political actors beyond the group of upfront participants. For a successful development, the awareness and acceptance of political decision makers, stakeholders and inhabitants should be ensured throughout the implementation and, if possible, in spite of setbacks. All these actors should be involved in decisionmaking processes and should be able to contribute by expressing their own ideas and resentments. The action plans of Ignalina, Zarasai and Visaginas municipalities are shown in [30,31,32]. 3.3. Implementation The structure of cooperation and strategy implementation is shown in Fig. 8. The issue of implementation of the Energy strategy is a responsibility of municipality administration. The actions and measures introduced in the Action plans should be assigned to the specific units of the municipality administration. The first task of the strategy was to hire an energy specialist, who would be responsible for monitoring energy situations and coordinating the implementation of the strategy. The Ignalina NPP regional development agency and Lithuanian Energy Institute were acting as consulting (energy issues, publishing and marketing) organizations.

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Table 1 Strategy implementation monitoring indicators. Typical indicators for rational use of energy (RUE)

    

MWh saved/year € saved/year t CO2 reduced per year Improved efficiency (e.g. energy consumption in kWh/m2 in households etc.) Cost efficiency (€ invested/kWh saved, € invested/t CO2 reduced)

Typical indicators of renewable energy sources (RES)

 kWh of electricity and kWh heat     

produced annually Installed m2 of solar collectors kWel or kW of installed capacity – wind, biomass boilers t CO2 reduced per year Cost efficiency (€ invested/t CO2 reduced) Other

36

Macro indicators (on the level of region):

       

Energy demand in kWh in/GDP (if available) Energy demand in kWh/capita Primary energy consumption/GDP Electricity consumption in kWh/capita Electricity consumption in kWh/GDP % of renewable energy share in primary energy balance of the Region % of renewable electricity produced as a share of gross electricity consumption in the region t CO2 per capita

100

30

Households

24

Services sector

18

Industry

12

Construction

Heating

thous. toe

80

Agriculture

6

Electricity

60

% 40 20

0 INPP region

Visaginas mun.

Ignalina d. mun.

Zarasai d. mun.

Fig. 9. The final energy consumption by economy sectors in INPP region and its municipalities in 2009.

There were several main involved parties (apart from municipality administration), which should take part in the strategy implementation: municipal owned energy related companies – heating production and supply, utility companies, transport company, water and waste management company; public health bureau; educational institutions – kindergartens, schools; Ignalina NPP regional development agency; Lithuanian Energy Institute; National Government; private energy related companies in the region and other businesses; nongovernmental organizations (NGOs); local community. For the implementation process, it is important to have a full-time staff allocated (preferably not a politician, who might lose his constituency during the life-time of a project). Strategy should be reviewed and reconfirmed periodically, best once a year. The change in relevant indicators should be observed. If needed, the action plan has to be adapted. For any change to the layout, specialists and local stakeholders should be involved. Before large-scale investments are made, different opportunities and several offers have to be considered. Since the strategy concerns the development of the environment and the social community of the region, up-to-date information and professionals on the required field must be utilized. 3.4. Indicators The list of indicators given below (Table 1) will help to describe energy related targets and progress. It will also help to evaluate the outcome of work or investments and could be used to see gaps in the actual perception.

4. Results 4.1. Energy consumption in Ignalina NPP region and its municipalities The analysis of energy transition possibilities after the decommissioning of a nuclear power plant in Ignalina region was described in details by authors in [36], where the deep study of RES technologies installed in Lithuania, the RES potential in INPP region and energy supply and consumption needs was given. Ignalina NPP was

0 Ignalina d. mun.

Zarasai d. mun.

Visaginas mun.

INPP region

Fig. 10. Heating and electricity generation from RES in INPP region and its municipalities.

one of the principal strategic objects of the INPP region. In the period of 2008–2009, it produced about 70% of the electricity needs for Lithuania [37,38]. Before the shutdown of INPP, the final energy consumption in INPP region was about 56 thousand toe, (650 GWh/ year) [39]. About 47% of the final energy was consumed in Visaginas town municipality, and 26–27% – in Ignalina and Zarasai district municipalities. The final energy consumption by economy sectors in INPP region and its municipalities is shown in Fig. 9. In all INPP region households, about 36 thousand toe (64% of final consumption) were consumed. The second based on the consumption was the service sector: 14 thousand toe (about 25% of final consumption). In industry sector, 4 thousand toe (about 8% of final consumption) were consumed. In INPP region municipalities, the final energy consumption in households reached 10– 15 thousand toe, and in the service sectors – 4–7 thousand toe. In INPP region, 12 thousand toe of final electricity consumption were consumed. 46% of that amount was consumed by Visaginas municipality, 27% – by Ignalina district municipality and 27% – by Zarasai district municipality. The district heating demand of the entire INPP region was 23 thousand toe, 18 thousand toe out of which belonged to Visaginas municipality, and 2.5 thousand toe – to each Ignalina and Zarasai district municipalities. The heat supply demand of the entire INPP region consisted of 75 thousand toe, 57 thousand toe out of which were consumed in Visaginas municipality, 10 thousand toe – in Ignalina and 8 thousand toe in Zarasai district municipalities. In 2010, 17 thousand toe or about 23% of thermal energy in the INPP region was produced using RES: 100% in Ignalina district, 78.5% – in Zarasai district and 2.5% – in Visaginas town municipalities (Fig. 10). The Law on RES of the Republic of Lithuania sets the target to consume no less than 50% of district heating energy from RES until 2020 [40,41]. The best situation is in Ignalina and Zarasai districts: it requires minor improvements in the usage of RES, and the substantial improvements in usage of RES in heating sector should be done in

V. Gaigalis et al. / Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews 51 (2015) 1680–1696

6

5.24 4.26

3.81

4 3

2.89

2.62

2

1.67

1.39

1

0.68

0.5

0.4

r

r

be

ec D

ov

em

em

be

er

r

ob O

ct N

Se

pt

em

be

st

ly Ju

gu Au

ay

ne Ju

M

ril Ap

ar M

ua

ar

br Fe

nu

ch

ry

0 Ja

4.2.1. The solar energy potential The solar energy is the primary source of almost all types of RES. Its application for practical needs is divided into direct production

5.45

5.4

5

y

4.2. Analysis of the RES implementation possibilities in Ignalina NPP region

of electrical energy (photo electricity) and solar collectors for heating the water. Solar radiation slightly differs in Lithuania depending on the landscape. In INPP region, solar radiation incident on 1 square meter flat plate placed horizontally during the year equals approximately to 1000 kWh/m2 per year (Fig. 11). Till 2012, photo electricity was not extensively used for energy needs in Lithuania. This was determined by poor sponsorship of environmentfriendly energy resources. In 2012 a very favorable support scheme was introduced and boosted the development of a PV energy sector. Currently the total PV installed power exceeds 60 MW. Solar thermal collectors are more popular in Lithuania and enable to save 50–60% of costs annually used for heating water. The use of solar energy for heating water is one the quickest, most straightforward and reasonable methods to reduce consumer daily costs under the Lithuanian climatic conditions. Newly installed solar collectors make up 200–350 kW each year. The solar energy distribution in INPP region by months in kWh/m2 per day is shown in Fig. 12.

kWh/m 2per day

Visaginas town. In the same Law, it was also established that no less than 21% of electricity should be generated in Lithuania using RES. In Zarasai district municipality of INPP region, this aim is already achieved and is reaching 24%; however, in Ignalina district municipality, electricity production from RES makes only 1.7%, and in Visaginas – 0%. The RES potential and energy needs give motivation to reaching 100% of the RES status of the INPP region and its municipalities in the future. Recently, energy-related situation in INPP region has been satisfactory as per the relation of supply volume to the needs of inhabitants and operating plants. Almost the entire volume of the required energy in the region comes from outside, except the existing installations based on renewable energy sources, such as biomass plants, solar panels and hydropower. The main energy carriers in INPP region are natural gas, electricity, firewood and oil. The major part of fuel and energy consumed in INPP region is imported, so forth as in all Lithuania. Having the decommissioned INPP, Lithuania is no longer able to suitably satisfy its energy demand. Energy dependency in Lithuania increased from 50% in 2009 to 82% in 2010. The electric power can be imported to Lithuania only from several countries because the electricity networks are not connected to the European electric power systems. Therefore, it is natural that the share of electricity generated from the renewables should be increased. Due to the mentioned circumstances, very favorable conditions emerge to notably increase the use of biofuel in the companies supplying district heating by reducing the share of natural gas.

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Fig. 12. The solar energy distribution by months in INPP region, kWh/m2 per day.

Fig. 11. The solar irradiation in Lithuania and Ignalina NPP region.

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Fig. 13. The wind resources in Lithuania and Ignalina NPP region (Wind velocity is given at 50 m above flat terrain of roughness class 2); * – location of the meteorological stations.

4.2.2. The wind energy resources During the last 7–8 years, the assessment of wind energy resources was carried out, existent and performed new wind energy parameter measurements were generalized and, on the basis of the obtained results, a map of Lithuanian wind resources was formed, which enables to optimally select wind turbine (WT) construction sites (Fig. 13). Ignalina NPP region does not have favorable wind conditions for development of wind power plants (average wind velocity is in the range of 3.5  4 m/s at the height of 10 m). However, wind energy would be possible in this region if advanced wind power plant production technologies were applied. The most suitable locations for such plants should be selected and 100-meter high or higher wind turbine towers should be built. Wind power plants having up to 170 MW power in total could be connected to the high-voltage networks in the INPP region, which determines the theoretical wind energy potential. 4.2.3. The potential of wood fuel The potentials of wood and energy plantations in Lithuania and Ignalina NPP region in thousand tons are shown in Fig. 14. The theoretical potential of wood fuel in INPP region (primary energy) amounts to 688 thousand MWh/year (or about 59 thousand toe), 312 thousand MWh/year out of which belong to Ignalina district, and 376 thousand MWh/year – to Zarasai district municipalities. However, the potential of wood fuel use in the INPP region reaches only 228 thousand MWh/year (about 19.6 thousand toe), about 68 thousand MWh/year out of which (about 5.8 thousand toe) belong to forestry waste. The theoretical potential of energy plantations in INPP region amounts to about 26.8 thousand MWh/year (about 2.3 thousand toe). 4.2.4. The potential RES estimation criterions The RES potential estimation criterions are shown in the Fig. 15. According to the wind plant power connection scheme, presented by JSC LITGRID, the INPP has technical possibilities to connect

plants generating up to 74 MW of power in each Ignalina, Visaginas and Zarasai municipality. Technical wind energy potential was estimated following the assumption that the INPP region could fully satisfy the electrical energy demand, i.e., 74 MW, using RES. The economically based wind energy potential of the INPP region could be estimated by carrying out a detailed theoretical and wind parameter research (requiring a lot of time and financial resources), involving the selection of relative construction sites for wind power plant. The main RES in the INPP region is biomass. Technical potential of biomass in the separate INPP region municipalities is determined by the disposed land, where grain crops, energy plants (fast-growing bushes, rapes, corn, etc.) and forests (wood, cutting residues) are grown as well as the productivity of that land and duration of plants rotation. Moreover, abandoned land may also provide RES (grass). RES could also be provided by other resources, such as animal husbandry objects, sewage cleaning plants, industrial companies producing organic waste, located in separate municipalities as well as household waste, sun, wind, hydro energy, geothermal energy, etc. Certain RES (e.g., wood, straw, etc.) can be used in their primary form for the generation of electrical energy and heating, while the use of other RES is possible only after their appropriate processing (e.g., wood granules, biogas, biofuel, etc.). Moreover, the availability of some RES is changing (solar, wind, hydro energy, etc.). The theoretical potential of the final energy from the RES in INPP region amounts to approx. 122 thousand toe (about 1418 GWh/ year), Fig. 16. About 37% of such amount belongs to wood fuel, 32% – to the wind energy, and about 27% – to the solar energy (solar heat and photo electricity). Theoretical potential is about twice higher than the final energy needs for the INPP region (650 GWh/year). So, theoretically, INPP region can be provided fully by energy by using the RES potential. The detailed theoretical potential of final energy from the RES is shown on Table 2. The calculated total technical potential of final energy generated from RES in the INPP region is 30.09 thousand toe (350 GWh/ year), Fig. 17.

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300-420 thous. tonnes 700-750 thous. tonnes Over 1 000 thous. tonnes Straw (thous. tonnes) Firewood (thous. tonnes)

Energy plantations (thousand tonnes)

Fig. 14. The potentials of wood and energy plantations in Lithuania and Ignalina NPP region.

potential is around 7.27 thousand toe. Visaginas has fewer wood fuel resources and more extensive solar and wind power development possibilities.

Theoretical potential The estimation of techninal restrictions and losses Technical potential Economically based potential

The estimation of the final energy using possibilities

4.3. INPP region energy needs and development targets

The potential of appliances Fig. 15. The RES potential estimation criterions.

120 Hidroenergy

100

Wind energy

thous. toe

Photoelectricity

80

Solar heat Animal manure

60

Straw fuel Energy plantations

40

Wood fuel Sewage sludge

20 0 Ignalina distr.mun.

Visaginas mun.

Zarasai distr.mun.

INPP Region

Fig. 16. Theoretical potential of the final energy from the RES in INPP region.

Out of this amount, wood fuel comprises about 14.7 thousand toe, wind power – 11.30 thousand toe, solar heat and photo electricity – 3.26 thousand toe, hydro energy – 0.85 thousand toe. About 37.6% of total amount goes to wind energy, 48.8% – to wood fuel, 10.8% – to solar energy and 2.8% – to hydro energy. In Ignalina and Zarasai district municipalities, the RES potential is about twice higher than that in Visaginas municipality and reaches 11.47 and 11.35 thousand toe, respectively. Visaginas RES

Ignalina district municipality together with Visaginas municipality and Zarasai district municipality is part of INPP region. In 2011, all three municipalities adopted an energy strategy for the INPP region until 2035. The action plans of the region municipalities are the final planning phase of the regional energy planning process. The aim of the action plans was to provide guidelines until 2022, which should help INPP region to reach its vision. Action plans define short and long-term activities that should be conducted in order to successfully implement Ignalina NPP region energy strategy. The strategic targets of Ignalina district, Visaginas and Zarasai district municipalities are: (1) Intelligent energy consumption; (2) Constant development of energy consumption from local RES; (3) Creation of intelligent, green and environment-friendly municipality. Ignalina NPP region energy usage in 2011 and targets for 2035 are shown in Fig. 18, [29]. The total energy usage in INPP region reached 894 thousand MWh in 2011, 264 thousand MWh out of which were consumed in Ignalina district municipality, 426 thousand MWh – in Visaginas municipality, and 204 thousand MWh – in Zarasai district municipality (the INPP energy usage was not involved in calculus). 14% of 894 thousand MWh belonged to electrical energy, 49% – to heat energy, and 37% – to transport. Lately, the main part of energy in Ignalina NPP region has been produced by using natural gas, because the Visaginas boiler house burns such fuel. Till 2035, the main development is foreseen for biofuel, because potential of other RES is not significant. The

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Table 2 Theoretical potential of the final energy from the RES in INPP region, thousand toe. Wood fuel Hydro-energy Energy plantations Straw fuel Biogas

Ignalina d. mun. Visaginas mun. Zarasai d. mun. INPP region

20.08 0.45 24.22 44.75

0.19 0 2.26 2.45

0.9 – 0.1 2.34

0.29 0.00 1.30 0.39

Sewage sludge Animal manure Heat

Photo electricity

0.02 0.115 0.02 0.155

4.38 8.17 4.13 16.68

16 14 Wood fuel

Thous. toe

12

Solar heat

10 8

Photoelectricity

6

Hidroenergy

4

Wind energy

2 0 Ignalina distr.mun.

Visaginas mun.

Zarasai distr.mun.

Solar energy

INPP Region

Fig. 17. Technical potential of the final energy from the RES in INPP region.

transport is also the biggest energy consumer in the region, and such tendencies will be in the future. It is planned that in 2035, energy savings in the region should reach 84 MWh and the main part will be due to the savings of heat. Total CO2 emissions in INPP region in 2011 were 161 thousand ton, Fig. 19. About 35 thousand ton of such emissions were in Ignalina district municipality, 89 thousand ton – in Visaginas municipality, and 37 thousand ton – in Zarasai district municipality. About 12% of total CO2 amount belonged to electrical energy, 35% – to heat energy, and 53% – to transport. Transport was the main polluter. The planned reduction of pollution is by about 20% by 2035. The reduction of pollutions will also occur due to the decrease of amount of natural gasses and imported electricity.

0.47 – 0.04 0.52

3.95 8.17 3.78 15.91

Wind energy Total energy

12.9 12.9 12.9 38.7

43.19 29.80 50.06 121.9

factors (local resources, financial, legislative issues), which may slow down action plan development processes, and this could cause difficulties in implementing activities under defined timeline. The detailed explanation of defined activities in INPP region, the objectives, target groups and responsible parties on sustainable and renewable energy production, consumption and promotion are shown in Table 4 [30–32]. The municipalities from Ignalina NPP region do not have enough financial resources to implement activities listed in the action plan without outside funding programs. There are several funding opportunities which can be used for implementing the action plan. These opportunities are: (1) EU structural assistance for Lithuania for the periods 2007–2013 and 2014–2020, provided from the European Social Fund, European Regional Development Fund and Cohesion fund; (2) Rural Development Program for Lithuania 2007–2013 and 2014–2020; (3) Ignalina NPP decommissioning fund; (4) INTERREG programs; (5) European Neighborhood and Partnership Instrument; (6) Feed-in-tariff for renewable energy production; (7) State funding; (8) Private funding sources (for commercial projects). At present, during the development of the plan, it is difficult to predict what kind of activities will be supported in the next EU funds programming period, as currently one phase ends, and the priorities of the new programming period are not yet known. On the other hand, municipality will seek that greater amount of projects is funded from private sources and implemented by private business owners.

5. Discussion 4.4. The planned activities in INPP region and their description The planned activities in INPP region according to the Action Plan are to be implemented during the period of 2012–2035. The timeline of the action plan is divided into three groups:

 Short-term period (2012–2013). During the first three-year





period, research and analysis will be conducted. Preparatory activities, feasibility studies, meetings and discussions will be organized. Targets of this period are to find out the best strategies and methods in order to successfully implement the action plan and to raise the awareness of energy efficiency and energy savings among the target groups. Medium term period (2014–2016). It is the period of implementation of the most important projects. Prioritize projects by urgency and start implementing them. In this period, activities related to education of local residents and energy savings promotion should be executed. Long term period (2017–2022). The purpose of this period is to ensure that sustainable energy would become more widely used within the community.

The planned activities in INPP region, their description and implementing measures are shown in Table 3 [30–32]. The implementation of the action plan depends on the investment needs of the region and local municipality. There are limiting

5.1. Advantages and disadvantages of RES as compared to the use of the new NPP in the region Advantages of RES (wind energy, bio-fuel, solar energy and hydro power) are the following. Wind energy does not cause the pollution of the environment and has low operation costs; it is possible to combine bio-fuel for production of electricity and thermal energy; solar energy does not pollute the environment and has low operation cost; hydropower is effective and reliable for production, it does not pollute the environment and has low operation costs. Wind energy disadvantages: Depends on weather conditions (wind), low utilization rate of installed capacity; High initial investments are needed; Capacity of generators is relatively small; therefore, a large number of them is needed; Sufficient capacity reserves are required to compensate instability of wind energy output, and this can significantly influence the electricity price for end-users; Spoil landscape and coast line; Potential threat to endangered bird species. Bio-fuel disadvantages: Accelerates global warming; Uses the same resources as paper industry; Large investments (higher than investments in power plants burning fossil fuel, but lower than those in nuclear power plants, wind parks or hydro power plants); Inefficient if small power plants are used; High operation costs; High quality treatment equipment is needed to prevent environmental pollution.

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332 332

2011

300

281

2035

264

thous. MWh

250 200 158

150

123 107 87

100

84

70

50 10

0

11

0

21 6

0

6

13

0

0

0

0 Wood fuels

Natural gas

INPP heat usage

INPP electricity

Oil

Hydropower

Solar energy

Wind power

Transport

Import electricity

Energy savings

Fig. 18. Ignalina NPP region energy usage in 2011 and target for 2035.

90

86

2011 2035

80

thous. tonnes

70

65

60

53

50 40 30 22

20

19

14

13

10 0

0

0

1

0

3

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0 Wood fuels Natural gas

INPP heat usage

INPP electricity

Oil

Hydropower

Solar energy

Wind power

Transport

Import electricity

Fig. 19. Emissions of CO2 in Ignalina NPP region in 2011 and target for 2035.

Solar energy disadvantages: It is only efficient in the countries with many sunny days; Special materials are used for production, which may damage the environment; The present technology requires large plots of land even if small quantity of electricity is to be produced. Hydro Power disadvantages: Depends on weather conditions, possible shortages during a dry year; High initial investments are needed; Dams destroy or obstruct migratory routes for fish; Vast territories need to be flooded for their operation, damaging the landscape and making a negative impact on biodiversity. Advantages of the nuclear energy in comparison to the other methods of energy production are: Small the environment pollutions due to CO2 emissions; Nuclear power plant is usually operated at the base load mode; hence, there is a high utilization rate of installed capacity, production costs per kilowatt hour are relatively lower than in the power plants of other types; fuel constituent amounts to a small part of electricity price; there are sufficient fuel resources located in politically stable countries; moreover, it is possible to build up fuel reserves for a longer period; scientific progress is promoted; relatively small quantities of waste; low operation costs. It is possible to produce both electricity and thermal energy. Besides, these are the possibilities for a rational use of the existing infrastructure, creating of new work places and attracting direct foreign investments. New NPP guarantees the national energy supply security. Disadvantages of NPP are the high initial investments and needing resources for long-term management of radioactive waste, also safety, because of potential nuclear and radiation accidents (needing public acceptance). The new Visaginas NPP project comprises construction of a new nuclear power plant and the related infrastructure in Lithuania. Upon implementation of the project, the shut down Ignalina Nuclear Power Plant reactors can be replaced by modern, safe, and environmentfriendly electric power production technology at the plant.

The government of Lithuania together with Latvia, Estonia and Japanese “Hitachi” corporation planned to build a new safer NPP in the region. Taking into consideration all the factors, the needs of the Baltic States and their strategic goals, the new Visaginas NPP was acknowledged as the best alternative for electricity generation. The new NPP should ensure basic generation of electricity together with renewable energy sources, and the new Lithuanian energy block should form a sufficiently distributed portfolio of energy generation. On October 14, 2012, an advisory referendum was held in Lithuania concerning the construction of a new NPP. 53% of the electorate expressed the opinion. However, the proposal was rejected by 63% of voters, and the government plans to build a new NPP were suspended. The safety of Lithuania's population in the event of minor and major NPP failures should be ensured at first of all. A nuclear and radiation accident is defined by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) as “an event that has led to significant consequences to people, the environment or the facility.” Examples include lethal effects to individuals, large radioactivity release to the environment, or reactor core melt. The prime example of a “major nuclear accident” is one in which a reactor core is damaged and significant amounts of radioactivity are released, such as in the Chernobyl disaster in 1986 [42]. The impact of nuclear accidents has been a topic of debate practically since the first nuclear reactors were constructed in 1954. It has also been a key factor of public concern about nuclear facilities. A lot of technical measures to reduce the risk of accidents or to minimize the amount of radioactivity released to the environment have been adopted. Taking into account that there is a strong desire to decrease the amount of working NPPs in Europe and to stop the construction of new ones, it is clear that alongside the issue of the nuclear power

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Table 3 The planned activities in INPP region its description and implementing measures. No. Activities 1. Intelligent energy consumption 1.1. Renovation of public buildings

Description

The aim of activity is to reduce the inefficient use of energy in public buildings. Modernize buildings in order to reach B category of energy efficiency.

Measures

 To prepare energy audits for all public buildings

 To renovate not less than 90% of all public buildings

 In renovated buildings reach at least B category of energy efficiency 1.2. Renovation of apartment buildings

Establish complex renovation program for apartment buildings. Change building energy efficiency category into category B.

 To prepare energy audits for all apartment buildings

 To prepare complex renovation program (model)

 To renovate at least 60 apartment buildings and to reach at least B category of energy efficiency 1.3. Renovation of private houses in Ignalina and Zarasai districts

1.4. Modernization of centralized heating production and supply systems

Reduce inefficient energy use in private houses. Develop remedies which could encourage owners of private houses to make renovation. To provide grants and subsidies.

 To prepare incentives mechanism for

Activity is carried out in two directions: 1. Development of new technological innovations in order to improve energy production efficiency 2. Modernization of heating system pipelines in order to minimize heating transfer losses

 To prepare feasibility study of Ignalina



renovation of private houses to reach at least energy efficiency category B To create special fund for private houses owners

district municipality heating system

 To modernize heating system  To increase efficiency of energy production by 5%

 To increase energy transfer efficiency up to 88%

1.5. Integration of LED lighting in city and installation of lighting management system

Evaluate regional cities and towns possibilities to switch to central street lighting using LED technology. After evaluating of the economic and ecologic potential lighting implementation projects will be implemented.

1.6. Development and usage of intelligent and Activity is carried out in three directions: private transport and bicycles. environmentally friendly transport system

 To prepare feasibility study for development of city lighting system

 Lighting modernization Private transport To create promotion program of healthy lifestyle and environmental-friendly activities

1. Initiatives related to private transport. Encourage local people to Public transport choose less polluting alternatives instead of individual cars or  To evaluate and prepare actions for further environmental friendly transport: bicycles electric cars, public development of public transport system transport. This activity requires both the education of the local citizens and improvement of bicycle tracks and public transport Bicycles infrastructure.  To create feasibility study 2. Initiatives related to public transport. Modernization of public  To develop convenient bicycle tracks transport system (assessment of the current situation, the network connected with regional effectiveness of existing routes, modernization of buses). bicycle tracks 3. Initiatives related to bicycle tracks. Construction of new bicycle tracks, renovation of old bicycle tracks, installation of road signs for cyclists and stands. 2. Constant development of energy consumption from local RES 2.1. Heating generation in centralized systems The aim of the activity is to achieve that heat energy if possible in the using only RES region would be produced only from the local renewable energy sources.

 To switch fuel to biomass or other renewable energy sources

2.2. Development of centralized heating supply systems in remote areas of Ignalina and Zarasai districts 2.3. Development of electricity energy production from solar energy (direct, indirect and stored)

In order to maximize the efficiency of energy supply it is necessary to evaluate possibilities and to encourage smaller local towns to build local boiler-houses. By using subsidies and incentives encourage the production of electricity from the sun. Energy from the sun is divided into three categories: 1. direct (solar thermal, photovoltaic); 2. indirect (hydropower, wind energy); 3. accumulated (biomass, biogas).

 To prepare feasibility study

2.4. Stimulation of individual energy production in Ignalina and Zarasai districts

Encourage local residents and business to produce independently energy (electricity, heating, e.g. geothermal solar panels and batteries, small wind energy and etc.).

 To develop incentives mechanism for

 To attract investment  To prepare feasibility studies



production of RES based electricity and heating energy To create special fund for private house owners

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Table 3 (continued ) No. Activities 3. Creation of intelligent, green and environmental friendly region 3.1. Enhancement of electricity savings through devices and habits

3.2. Creation of monitoring system

3.3. Development of education and training programs for local residents

Description

Measures

Educate local residents by providing them information about energy savings. Encourage community to change long-standing habits (education in schools). Create a mechanism for encouraging local citizens to change their old, inefficient appliances with the new ones (buying up old appliances and etc.).

 To develop promotional campaigns for local

Establish a new energy manager position in Ignalina district municipality administration who would be responsible for:  Gathering and managing information related to regional energy production and usage  Current situation assessment  Delivery of reports about regional energy production and usage for the responsible parties  Consulting local residents and businesses on energy topics

 To establish a new position  To create system for monitoring energy

Incorporate lessons about energy saving and renewable resources benefits at all levels of educational institution curriculums.

 To integrate lessons about sustainable

residents

 To develop promotional campaigns for local business

 To build training programs in schools

situation in Ignalina district municipality

   

3.4. Stimulation and support of businesses related to RES

3.5. Creation and development of “green” image of Ignalina NPP region

Provide subsidies and incentives for businesses that work in the field of RES. Create preferential conditions for such enterprises. This will encourage development of local responsible business and will attract new investments. Activity should be oriented to attract new tourists and new investors in INPP region municipalities. Activities would be mostly intended to improve the image and to increase the area awareness. Basically, it’s a marketing of implemented strategic targets.

plant itself, there are also the radioactive storage issues. Hence, even when the NPP is shut down, the storage facilities remain hazardous. High safety culture and special safety principles and regulations are required in the design and operation of nuclear power plants. The fundamental safety objective is to protect people and the environment from harmful effects of ionizing radiation. All the most relevant principles of nuclear safety, environment impact assessment of the new Lithuanian Nuclear Power Plant, risk analysis and assessment, accident consequences and estimation, emergency preparedness and response were presented by Consortium of Poyry Energy Oy and Lithuanian Energy Institute in [43], together with all the well-established procedures able to minimize any risk of accident. Accidental releases from the NPP and their impacts on the environment and public have considered for two scenarios: design basis accident (DBA) and severe accident. For the severe accident case release of 100 TBq Cs-137 into the environment has been estimated and possible impacts and protection actions for population in case of such severe accidents are described. The dispersion of accidental releases in these situations has been simulated with Air Quality and Emergency Modeling System SILAM of the Finnish Meteorological Institute (FMI). The exposure of the environment and people depends on the specific meteorological conditions during the accident and the geographical location of the receiving point and thus the results of the study are given as 2dimensional maps of the exposure levels, which are not exceeded with a certain probability for any realistic meteorological conditions. The main protective actions in case of a severe accident are iodine prophylaxis and restrictions on the use of foodstuffs, milk

energy in curriculums of all levels of educational institutions To develop training program for local residents To develop training program for local business To develop training programs in schools Promotional programs of sustainable energy consumption

 To create mechanism of incentives for business related to RES

 To promote sustainable energy consumption  To develop region promotion program  To organize renewable energy day (festival)

and drinking water. To mitigate the consequences of an accident to the public, the power plant and rescue service authorities maintain emergency preparedness. The Lithuanian nuclear energy legislation sets requirements for civil defense, rescue and emergency response actions. Only safe technologies in safe sites under safe construction with safe operation and safe decommissioning can guarantee real nuclear safety and security.

6. Conclusions Follow-up activities are aimed to reduce the energy consumption, increase the usage of renewable resources (including local energy resources), and reduce greenhouse gas emissions. A part of Energy Strategy will be added into the strategic development plans of Visaginas, Ignalina and Zarasai district municipalities. The strategy of Lithuanian Ignalina NPP region was prepared for the period of 2012–2035. As it is a very long period, during which a lot of circumstances could change (for example, in Lithuanian national energy strategy, it is stated that new 1.2 TW Nuclear Power Plant station will be built till 2020 near Visaginas), the necessity for strategy updates will possibly will be arise. Moreover, the Action plan was prepared only for the period of 2012–2020, as it is very difficult to forecast and plan activities with so many uncertainties about funding possibilities and national policy which is changing quite often. Moreover, the implementation of the strategy depends on municipality determination and financial resources. The next EU funding period is necessary for the

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Table 4 The detailed explanation of defined activities, the objectives, target groups and responsible parties on sustainable and renewable energy production, use and promotion in INPP region. No. Activity

1. Intelligent energy consumption 1.1. Renovation of public buildings

1.2. Renovation of apartment buildings

Objectives

The level Timescale Target groups of priority

To reduce heating energy consumption in INPP region municipalities respectively to 400, 500 and 3000 MWh until 2022

1

To reduce heating energy consumption to 5000 and 30000 MWh in municipalities until 2022

1

2013– 2017

 Public 

2013– 2019

Responsible parties

 Municipalities

sector workers Local community

 Local community

administration

 Local community

 Municipality administration

1.3. Renovation of private houses

To renovate 100 hundred private houses in Ignalina and Zarasai districts until 2022

2

2013– 2022

 Local community

 Local community

 Municipalities administration

1.4. Modernization of centralized heating production and supply system

To increase efficiency of energy production by 5% until 2022 To increase energy transfer efficiency up to 88% until 2022

1

2013– 2022

 Local

 “Ignalinos

community

 

1.5. Integration of LED lighting in city and installation of its management systems

To increase energy savings up to 50% until 2022 comparing with year 2012

2

1.6. Development and usage of intelligent and environmental friendly transport system

To reduce CO2 by 20% until 2022

3

2015– 2018

 Local

2015– 2022

 Local

community

community

silumos tinklai” “Visagino energija” “Panevezio energija”

 Municipalities administration

 Municipalities administration

 Public

health bureau 2. Constant development of energy consumption from local RES 2.1. Heating generation in centralized systems using only RES

To produce 100% local heating using RES until 2022

2.2. Development of centralized heating supply To create at least one system in Ignalina and Zarasai systems in remote areas districts until 2022

1

3

2013– 2016

 Local

2017– 2022

 Local

community

community

 Municipalities administration

 Investors

 Municipalities administration

 Local

community 2.3. Development of electricity energy production from solar energy (direct, indirect and stored)

To provide 2-3 MW heating energy production capacity until 2022 To provide 2-3 MW electricity production capacity from sun until 2022

2

2.4. Stimulation of individual energy production To provide 1 MW electricity power from individuals until in Ignalina and Zarasai districts 2022 To provide 3 MW heating power from individuals until 2022 3. Creation of intelligent, green and environmental friendly region 3.1. Enhancement of electricity savings through To organize at least one campaign annually 2 devices and habits

3.2. Creation of monitoring system

To establish one additional position until 2014

1

2

2017– 2022

 Local

2013– 2022

 Energy

2013– 2022

 Local

2013

 Local

community

producers





3.3. Development of education and training programs for local resident

To execute 10 training programs until 2015 and to establish one scientific base in Visaginas until 2014

1

2013

community Local business

community Local business

 Local  

community Tourists Local business

 Municipalities administration

 Investors

 Municipalities administration

 Municipalities administration

 Municipalities administration

 Municipalities administration

 Education

institutions

V. Gaigalis et al. / Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews 51 (2015) 1680–1696

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Table 4 (continued ) No. Activity

Objectives

The level Timescale Target groups of priority

3.4. Stimulation and support of businesses related to RES

To support at least 20 enterprises until 2022

1

3.5. Creation and development of “green” image To attract from 5 to 15 thousand tourist until 2022 of Ignalina NPP region

1

2013– 2022

 Local

2017– 2022

 Local



  

implementation of the Action Plan. It is obvious that without support/funding schemes, it is complicated to realize all activities and investments listed in the Action Plan. Ignalina district, Visaginas and Zarasai district municipality administrations will follow the regional Energy Strategy and its Action Plan to achieve the strategic goals. The follow-up activities will be conducted by all regional partners: municipalities of Visaginas, Ignalina and Zarasai districts. There will be specific persons assigned for coordination of activities and they will be responsible for follow-up activities. In 2020 the strategy will be revised, corrective actions will be performed and the workgroups will create new action plans for the period of 2021–2030. The energy specialists from Visaginas, Ignalina and Zarasai district municipality administrations with the help of teams built from municipal energy companies, educational institutions, NGOs, businesses and other municipal units will continuously monitor the achievement of the goals of the energy strategy. They will organize the events, where all interested parties will be able to participate and present the results, get feedback and recommendations. Every year responsible persons will prepare reports, where all activities performed will be described, and all achievements will be evaluated. The reports will also help to set new goals for the coming year and adjust these short-term objectives with strategic goals. The experiences achieved in Ignalina NPP region could be transferred to other East European countries by solving the regional development problems, because the climate conditions and energy sectors in majority are similar enough to those in the case study of the Lithuanian Ignalina NPP region.

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business Investors

community Local business Investors Tourists

Responsible parties

 Municipalities administration

 Municipalities administration

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