- Email: [email protected]
Systematic Synthesis of Impacts of Climate Change on China's Crop Production System
Journal of Integrative Agriculture
July 2014
2014, 13(7): 1413-1417
Editorial
Systematic Synthesis of Impacts of Climate Change on China’s Crop Production System TANG Hua-jun, WU Wen-bin, YANG Peng and LI Zheng-guo Global climate change is real and already taking place. The most recent Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC AR5) stated that global land and ocean surface temperature increased by 0.85°C over the period of 1880 to 2012 (IPCC Climate Change 2013). China is among the most affected countries by global climate change. Meteorological station observations show that there is an obviously linear ascending trend of temperature in China over the past 50 years and the temperature has increased by 1.2°C since 1960, which is much higher than that of global average (Piao et al. 2010). Although country-average precipitation did not show a significant long-term trend since 1960, there are significant changing trends in precipitation among regions and seasons. The northeastern China (including North China and Northeast China) are receiving less and less precipitation in summer and autumn, while the southern China is experiencing more rainfall during both summer and winter. This acceleration in temperature warming and its associated changes in precipitation undoubtedly add greater pressure to China’s food production system, which is already facing lots of challenges due to population growth, changes in diets, and biofuel consumption (Wu W et al. 2011, 2014). Food can be produced from cropland, grassland and aquatic ecosystems. Within it, crop production system takes a central role in China as it currently provides the lion’s share of the national food supply: More than 75% of total foods in China are derived directly or indirectly from croplands (Yue et al. 2010). Crop production system is sensitive to weather and climate change has direct biophysical effects on crop production through altering weather conditions and changing the frequency and severity of extreme climate events (e.g., drought, extreme temperatures) (Wu W et al. 2014). A great number of researchers used process-based models, agro-ecosystem models and statistical analyses of historical data to evaluate the magnitude, rate and pattern of climate change impacts on crop production in China (Barry and Cai 1996;
Liu et al. 2004; Wang et al. 2009; Zhang and Huang 2012, Chen et al. 2013). Several review paper also existed to synthesize current knowledge, highlight currently under-researched topics, explore scientific frontiers and suggest ways ahead (Kang et al. 2009; Wang et al. 2010; Piao et al. 2010; Li et al. 2011; Ju et al. 2013). However, these previous studies are generally either focused on a single aspect of the interactions between climate change and crop production or are performed in specific small regions. Substantial differences in models, scenarios and data cause large inconsistency in assessment results of climate change impacts, and well-recognized conclusions are therefore unavailable (Yang P et al. 2014). For instance, some studies suggest that global warming will have an adverse effect on China’s crop production, while others indicate that crop yields would benefit from global warming, at least in the early stages, in the temperate mid to high-latitude regions (Lobell et al. 2011). This constrains cross study syntheses and limits the ability to devise relevant adaptation options. Thus, a systematic, large-scale, and integrated study that investigates the interactions between climate change and China’s crop production system is needed. To achieve this goal, the Ministry of Science and Technology of China launched a 5-year project ‘‘Impacts of Climate Change on Crop Production System in China’’ through its National Major Scientific Research Program in 2010. This project, coordinated by the Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, is expected to analyze and understand the complex and multiple dimensions of climate change impacts on China’s crop production system in a holistic and systematic way. The researchers in diverse community, including agro-meteorology, geography, remote sensing, ecology, resource economics, regional development, and integrated assessment, have engaged in this research project, which is organized by four inter-related themes as shown in Fig. Several inter-related key questions will be addressed: What impacts did climate change have on the spatio-temporal dynamics © 2014, CAAS. All rights reserved. Published by Elsevier Ltd. doi: 10.1016/S2095-3119(14)60801-7
of agricultural resources (such as agro-meteorological, soil and crop variety) for crop production over the period of 1960-2010? How do natural disasters, pests and diseases, and extreme events occur and evolve over time and space in response to climate change? How and to what extent may climate change affect the multiple cropping systems, cropping acreage and patterns, crop yields, and
Cropping systems
eventually the overall food security in China? How can crop production proactively adapt to climate warming and extreme events to reduce its negative consequence? How can an integrated model be constructed so as to simulate and forecast the changing trends of China’s crop production system under different future scenarios of climate change?
Spatial patterns
Productivity
Theme 3 Crop distribution and yields
Agro-climatic resources Soils
Agro-drought Theme 1 Agro-resources
Theme 4 Integrated assessment model
Theme 2 Agro-disasters
Pests Diseases
Crop varieties
Scenario analysis
Adaptaion strategies
Fig. Four research themes in the project.
Some preliminary results from this project were already published in a wide range of peer-reviewed journals (Liu et al. 2012; Xiong et al. 2012; Ye et al. 2012; Yu et al. 2013; Li Z et al. 2014; Wu W et al. 2014) and played an important role in supporting the decision-making on climate change adaptation strategies. This special issue of Journal of Integrative Agriculture aims to, for the first time, systematically communicate the latest research achievements from this project and to provide a synthesis of many, interrelated topics involved in the multi-dimensional interactions between climate change and China’s crop production system, either from a thematic or methodological perspective. The three major cereal crops (rice, wheat, and maize) are fully covered by these studies. Overall, these nineteen articles can be grouped into four categories: synthetic review, agro-resources dynamics, agro-disasters changes, and impacts on crop distribution and yields. This special issue begins with three synthetic review
articles. Based on the literature review of climate change impacts on China’s agricultural sector, they propose either a conceptual framework for agricultural climate risk management (Chen K et al. 2014) or a new framework of satellite, aerial, and ground-integrated (SAGI) agricultural remote sensing for use in comprehensive agricultural monitoring, modeling, and management (Shi Y et al. 2014), and systematically analyze three interactive strategies (cropland expansion, crop allocation and agricultural intensification) which agricultural land systems can make a contribution to raise future food production under global change (Wu W B et al. 2014). Five articles specifically deal with the relationships between climate change and spatio-temporal dynamics of agricultural resources. Liu et al. (2014) used observed climatic and phenological records from 1992 to 2012 to analyze the potential effects of climate change on crop phenological development and productivity in Northeast China. Two studies focused on understanding
© 2014, CAAS. All rights reserved. Published by Elsevier Ltd.
how the two specific genes of Chinese wheat respond to environmental stresses, which can be beneficial for grainyield improvement (Chang et al. 2014; Gao et al. 2014), while the rest two studies aimed to analyze the impacts of climate change on soil nematode community (Song et al. 2014) and soil organic matter (Shi S Q et al. 2014). The next group of four articles were mainly focused on the linkages between climate change and agricultural disasters, with emphasis on the drought response to climate change (Liang et al. 2014), interactions between drought and yield decrease in North China Plain (Hu et al. 2014), interactive effects of elevated CO2 and temperature on rice planthopper (Shi B K et al. 2014), and impacts of powdery mildew on winter wheat yield (Cao et al. 2014). The impacts of climate change on crop distribution and yields and their responses are finally addressed by the rest seven articles. Wang et al. (2014) used the phenology-adjusted spectral indices derived from Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer to develop liner regression models with the county-level yield data in Northeast China, while Chen C et al. (2014) studied the impacts of climate change on rice yield in China from 1961 to 2010 based on province data. Li W J et al. (2014) proposed an improved approach to identify the contribution shares of three group factors (climate, technology and input, social-economic factors) by which the rice production is shaped in Jiangxi Province. Additionally, three articles provide more specific insights on crop response issues. Ye et al. (2014) estimated the response of rice planting boundary to climate change in the southern China during 1951-2010, while Xia et al. (2014) aimed to explore the spatio-temporal changes in rice planting area in Northeast China over the period of 1980-2010 and to analyze their relationship to climate change. The study by Yang J et al. (2014) assessed the responses of rice yield to changes of climatic variables at both national and regional scales by using a regional calibrated crop model. Yu et al. (2014) made a different study, which used a survey-based method to develop a farmer-centered framework to explore how smallholder farmers perceive climate change and adapt their agricultural activities at a local level. In summary, these nineteen articles in this special issue present different views on interactions between climate change and China’s crop production system at
multiple time and space scales. It is acknowledged that a number of important aspects related to climate change impacts on crop production are not discussed in this issue - either because those topics have been published recently or because contributions were unavailable or not yet ready for publication. The findings can enrich our current knowledge and understanding on recent climate trends and impacts of these trends on crop production in China. They provide helpful insights to assist the development of effective adaptation measures as well as the more targeted improvement of current adaptation practices to climate change in China. All these can help to fully exploit the positive effects of global warming on crop production while mitigating its negative impacts. Moreover, the interactions between climate change and crop production are a complex issue that requires a multi-dimensional perspective and spatially and temporally explicit analysis. This requires a further collaboration between the social and natural sciences addressing food production, as well as a breaking down of barriers between the different disciplines and fields of analysis. TANG Hua-jun Associate Editor-in-Chief Key Laboratory of Agri-Informatics, Ministry of Agriculture/ Institute of Agricultural Resources and Regional Planning, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences Beijing 100081, P.R.China E-mail: [email protected] WU Wen-bin Guest Editor Key Laboratory of Agri-Informatics, Ministry of Agriculture/ Institute of Agricultural Resources and Regional Planning, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences Beijing 100081, P.R.China E-mail: [email protected] YANG Peng Guest Editor Key Laboratory of Agri-Informatics,
© 2014, CAAS. All rights reserved. Published by Elsevier Ltd.
Ministry of Agriculture/ Institute of Agricultural Resources and Regional Planning, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences Beijing 100081, P.R.China E-mail: [email protected] LI Zheng-guo Guest Editor Key Laboratory of Agri-Informatics, Ministry of Agriculture/ Institute of Agricultural Resources and Regional Planning, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences Beijing 100081, P.R.China E-mail: [email protected]
References
Barry S, Cai Y. 1996. Climate change and agriculture in China. Global Environmental Change, 6, 205-214. Cao X R, Yao D M, Duan X Y, Liu W, Fan J R, Ding K J, Zhou Y L. 2014. Effects of powdery wildew on 1000-kernel weight, crude protein content and yield of winter wheat in three consecutive growing seasons. Journal of Integrative Agriculture, 13, 1530-1537. Chang J Z, Hao C Y, Chang X P, Zhang X Y, Jing R L. 2014. HapIII of TaSAP1-A1, a positively selected haplotype in wheat breeding. Journal of Integrative Agriculture, 13, 1462-1668. Chen C, Zhou G S, Zhou L. 2014. Impacts of climate change on rice yield in China from 1961 to 2010 based on province data. Journal of Integrative Agriculture, 13, 1555-1564. Chen K, Hsu C, Goodland A. 2014. Managing climate change risk in China’s agricultural sector: The potential for an integrated risk management framework. Journal of Integrative Agriculture, 13, 1418-1431.
Chen Y, Wu Z, Okamoto K, Han X, Ma G, Chien H, Zhao J. 2013. The impacts of climate change on crops in China: a Ricardian analysis. Global Planetary Change, 104, 61-74.
Gao L F, Liu P, Gu Y C, Jia J Z. 2014. Allelic variation in loci for adaptive response and its effect on agronomical traits in Chinese wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) Journal of Integrative Agriculture, 13, 1466-1476. Hu Y N, Liu Y J, Tang H J, Xu Y L, Pan J. 2014. Contribution of drought to potential crop yield reduction in a wheatmaize rotation region in the North China Plain. Journal of Integrative Agriculture, 13, 1509-1519. IPCC Climate Change. 2013. The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.
Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA.
Ju H, van der Velde M, Lin E, Xiong W, Li Y. 2013. The impacts of climate change on agricultural production systems in China. Climatic Change, 120, 313-324. Kang Y, Khan S, Ma X. 2009. Climate change impacts on crop yield, crop water productivity and food security - A review. Progress in Natural Science, 19, 1665-1674.
Li W J, Tang H J, Qin Z H, You F, Wang X F, Chen C L, Ji J H, Liu X M. 2014. Climate change impact and its contribution share to paddy rice production in Jiangxi China. Journal of Integrative Agriculture, 13, 1565-1574.
Li Y, Conway D, Xiong W, Gao Q, Wu Y, Wan Y, Li Y, Zhang S. 2011. Effects of climate variability and change on Chinese agriculture: a review. Climate Research, 50, 83-102. Li Z, Yang P, Tang H, Wu W, Yin H, Liu Z, Zhang L. 2014. Response of maize phenology to climate warming in Northeast China between 1990 and 2012. Regional Environmental Change, 14, 39-48. Liang L, Zhao S H, Qin Z H, He K X, Chen C, Luo Y X, Zhou X X. 2014. Drought change trend using MODIS TVDI and its relationship with climate factors in China from 2001 to 2010. Journal of Integrative Agriculture, 13, 1501-1508.
Liu H, Li X, Fischer G, Sun L. 2004. Study on the impacts of climate change on China’s agriculture. Climatic Change, 65, 125-148.
Liu Y, Jiang W L, Xiao B L, Lei B. 2014. Observed climatic variations in the growing season of field crops in Northeast China from 1992 to 2012. Journal of Integrative Agriculture, 13, 1451-1461.
Liu Z, Yang X, Hubbard KG, Lin X. 2012. Maize potential yields and yield gaps in the changing climate of northeast China. Global Change Biology, 18, 3224-3454. Lobell D B, Schlenker W, Justin C R. 2011. Climate trends and global crop production since 1980. Science, 333, 616-620. Piao S, Ciais P, Huang Y, Shen Z, Peng S, Li J, Zhou L, Liu H, Ma Y, Ding Y, Friedlingstein P, Liu C, Tan K, Yu Y, Zhang T, Fang J. 2010. The impacts of climate change on water resources and agriculture in China. Nature, 467, 43-51.
Shi B K, Huang J L, Hu C X, Hou M L. 2014. Interactive effects of elevated CO2 and temperature on rice planthopper, Nilaparvata lugens. Journal of Integrative Agriculture, 13, 1520-1529. Shi S Q, Cao Q W, Yao Y M, Tang H J, Yang P, Wu W B, Xu H Z, Liu J, Li Z G. 2014. Influence of climate and socioeconomic factors on the spatio-temporal variability of soil organic matter: A case study of central Heilongjiang Province. Journal of Integrative Agriculture, 13, 14861500. Shi Y, Ji S P, Shao X W, Tang H J, Wu W B, Yang P, Zhang Y J, Shibasaki R. 2014. Framework of SAGI agriculture remote sensing and its perspectives in supporting national food security. Journal of Integrative Agriculture, 13, 1443-1450.
© 2014, CAAS. All rights reserved. Published by Elsevier Ltd.
Song Z W, Zhang B, Tian Y L, Deng A X, Zheng C Y, Islam M N, Mannaf M A, Zhang W J. 2014. Impacts of nighttime warming on the soil Nematode Community in a winter sheat field of Yangtze Delta Plain, China. Journal of Integrative Agriculture, 13, 1477-1485.
Wang J, Huang J, Rozelle S. 2010. Climate change and China’s agricultural sector: An overview of impacts, adaptation and mitigation. ICTSD-IPC Platform on Climate Change, Agriculture and Trade, Issue Brief No.5. International Centre for Trade and Sustainable Development, Geneva, Switzerland and International Food & Agricultural Trade Policy Council, Washington DC, USA. Wang J, Mendelsohn R, Dinar A, Huang J, Rozelle S, Zhang L. 2009. The impact of climate change on China’s agriculture. Agricultural Economics, 40, 323-337. Wang M, Tao F L, Shi W J. 2014. Corn yield forecasting in the Northeast China using remotely sensed spectral indices and crop phenology metrics. Journal of Integrative Agriculture, 13, 1538-1545.
Wu W, Verburg H Peter, Tang H. 2014. Climate change and the food production system: impacts and adaptation in China. Regional Environmental Change, 14, 1-5. Wu W, Yang P, Tang H, You L, Zhou Q, Chen Z, Shibasaki R. 2011. Global-scale assessment of potential future risks of food insecurity. Journal of Risk Research, 14, 1143-1160. Wu W B, Yu Q Y, Verburg H P, You L Z, Yang P, Tang H J. 2014. How could agricultural land systems contribute to raise food production under global change? Journal of Integrative Agriculture, 13, 1432-1442. Xia T , Wu W B, Zhou Q B, Yu Q Y, Verburg P H, Yang P, Lu Z J, Tang H J. 2014. Spatiotemporal changes in the rice planting area and their relationship to climate change in Northeast China: A model-based analysis. Journal of Integrative Agriculture, 13, 1575-1585.
Xiong W, Holman I P, Lin E, Conway D, Li Y, Wu W. 2012. Untangling relative contributions of recent climate
and CO2 trends to national cereal production in China. Environmental Research Letter, doi:10.1088/17489326/7/4/044014
Yang J, Xiong W, Yang X G, Cao Y, Feng L Z. 2014. Geographic variation of rice yield response to past climate change in China. Journal of Integrative Agriculture, 13, 1586-1598.
Yang P, Wu W, Li Z, Yu Q, Inatsu M, Liu Z, Tang P, Zha Y, Kimoto M, Tang H. 2014. Simulated impact of elevated CO2, temperature, and precipitation on the winter wheat yield in the North China Plain. Regional Environmental Change, 14, 61-78. Ye L, Xiong W, Li Z, Yang P, Wu W, Yang G, Fu Y, Zou J, Chen Z, van Ranst E, Tang H. 2012. Climate change impact on China food security in 2050. Agronomy for Sustainable Development, doi:10.1007/s13539-0120102-0 Ye Q, Yang X G, Liu Z J, Dai S W, Li Y, Xie W J, Chen F. 2014. The effects of climate change on the planting boundary and potential yield for different rice cropping systems in the Southern China. Journal of Integrative Agriculture, 13, 1546-1554. Yu Q Y, Wu W B, Liu Z H, Verburg P H, Xia T, Yang P, Lu Z J, You L Z, Tang H J. 2014. Interpretation of climate change and agricultural adaptations by local household farmers: A case study at Bin County, Northeast China. Journal of Integrative Agriculture, 13, 1599-1608.
Yu Q, Wu W, Verburg H P, van Vliet J, Yang P, Zhou Q, Tang H. 2013. A survey-based exploration of land-system dynamics in an agricultural region of Northeast China. Agricultural Systems, 121, 106-116. Yue T, Wang Q, Lu Y, Xin X, Zhang H, Wu S. 2010. Change trends of food provisions in China. Global and Planetary Change, 72, 118-130. Zhang T, Huang Y. 2012. Impacts of climate change and inter-annual variability on cereal crops in China from 1980 to 2008. Journal of the Science of Food and Agriculture, 92, 1643-1652.
© 2014, CAAS. All rights reserved. Published by Elsevier Ltd.
July 2014
2014, 13(7): 1413-1417
Editorial
Systematic Synthesis of Impacts of Climate Change on China’s Crop Production System TANG Hua-jun, WU Wen-bin, YANG Peng and LI Zheng-guo Global climate change is real and already taking place. The most recent Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC AR5) stated that global land and ocean surface temperature increased by 0.85°C over the period of 1880 to 2012 (IPCC Climate Change 2013). China is among the most affected countries by global climate change. Meteorological station observations show that there is an obviously linear ascending trend of temperature in China over the past 50 years and the temperature has increased by 1.2°C since 1960, which is much higher than that of global average (Piao et al. 2010). Although country-average precipitation did not show a significant long-term trend since 1960, there are significant changing trends in precipitation among regions and seasons. The northeastern China (including North China and Northeast China) are receiving less and less precipitation in summer and autumn, while the southern China is experiencing more rainfall during both summer and winter. This acceleration in temperature warming and its associated changes in precipitation undoubtedly add greater pressure to China’s food production system, which is already facing lots of challenges due to population growth, changes in diets, and biofuel consumption (Wu W et al. 2011, 2014). Food can be produced from cropland, grassland and aquatic ecosystems. Within it, crop production system takes a central role in China as it currently provides the lion’s share of the national food supply: More than 75% of total foods in China are derived directly or indirectly from croplands (Yue et al. 2010). Crop production system is sensitive to weather and climate change has direct biophysical effects on crop production through altering weather conditions and changing the frequency and severity of extreme climate events (e.g., drought, extreme temperatures) (Wu W et al. 2014). A great number of researchers used process-based models, agro-ecosystem models and statistical analyses of historical data to evaluate the magnitude, rate and pattern of climate change impacts on crop production in China (Barry and Cai 1996;
Liu et al. 2004; Wang et al. 2009; Zhang and Huang 2012, Chen et al. 2013). Several review paper also existed to synthesize current knowledge, highlight currently under-researched topics, explore scientific frontiers and suggest ways ahead (Kang et al. 2009; Wang et al. 2010; Piao et al. 2010; Li et al. 2011; Ju et al. 2013). However, these previous studies are generally either focused on a single aspect of the interactions between climate change and crop production or are performed in specific small regions. Substantial differences in models, scenarios and data cause large inconsistency in assessment results of climate change impacts, and well-recognized conclusions are therefore unavailable (Yang P et al. 2014). For instance, some studies suggest that global warming will have an adverse effect on China’s crop production, while others indicate that crop yields would benefit from global warming, at least in the early stages, in the temperate mid to high-latitude regions (Lobell et al. 2011). This constrains cross study syntheses and limits the ability to devise relevant adaptation options. Thus, a systematic, large-scale, and integrated study that investigates the interactions between climate change and China’s crop production system is needed. To achieve this goal, the Ministry of Science and Technology of China launched a 5-year project ‘‘Impacts of Climate Change on Crop Production System in China’’ through its National Major Scientific Research Program in 2010. This project, coordinated by the Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, is expected to analyze and understand the complex and multiple dimensions of climate change impacts on China’s crop production system in a holistic and systematic way. The researchers in diverse community, including agro-meteorology, geography, remote sensing, ecology, resource economics, regional development, and integrated assessment, have engaged in this research project, which is organized by four inter-related themes as shown in Fig. Several inter-related key questions will be addressed: What impacts did climate change have on the spatio-temporal dynamics © 2014, CAAS. All rights reserved. Published by Elsevier Ltd. doi: 10.1016/S2095-3119(14)60801-7
of agricultural resources (such as agro-meteorological, soil and crop variety) for crop production over the period of 1960-2010? How do natural disasters, pests and diseases, and extreme events occur and evolve over time and space in response to climate change? How and to what extent may climate change affect the multiple cropping systems, cropping acreage and patterns, crop yields, and
Cropping systems
eventually the overall food security in China? How can crop production proactively adapt to climate warming and extreme events to reduce its negative consequence? How can an integrated model be constructed so as to simulate and forecast the changing trends of China’s crop production system under different future scenarios of climate change?
Spatial patterns
Productivity
Theme 3 Crop distribution and yields
Agro-climatic resources Soils
Agro-drought Theme 1 Agro-resources
Theme 4 Integrated assessment model
Theme 2 Agro-disasters
Pests Diseases
Crop varieties
Scenario analysis
Adaptaion strategies
Fig. Four research themes in the project.
Some preliminary results from this project were already published in a wide range of peer-reviewed journals (Liu et al. 2012; Xiong et al. 2012; Ye et al. 2012; Yu et al. 2013; Li Z et al. 2014; Wu W et al. 2014) and played an important role in supporting the decision-making on climate change adaptation strategies. This special issue of Journal of Integrative Agriculture aims to, for the first time, systematically communicate the latest research achievements from this project and to provide a synthesis of many, interrelated topics involved in the multi-dimensional interactions between climate change and China’s crop production system, either from a thematic or methodological perspective. The three major cereal crops (rice, wheat, and maize) are fully covered by these studies. Overall, these nineteen articles can be grouped into four categories: synthetic review, agro-resources dynamics, agro-disasters changes, and impacts on crop distribution and yields. This special issue begins with three synthetic review
articles. Based on the literature review of climate change impacts on China’s agricultural sector, they propose either a conceptual framework for agricultural climate risk management (Chen K et al. 2014) or a new framework of satellite, aerial, and ground-integrated (SAGI) agricultural remote sensing for use in comprehensive agricultural monitoring, modeling, and management (Shi Y et al. 2014), and systematically analyze three interactive strategies (cropland expansion, crop allocation and agricultural intensification) which agricultural land systems can make a contribution to raise future food production under global change (Wu W B et al. 2014). Five articles specifically deal with the relationships between climate change and spatio-temporal dynamics of agricultural resources. Liu et al. (2014) used observed climatic and phenological records from 1992 to 2012 to analyze the potential effects of climate change on crop phenological development and productivity in Northeast China. Two studies focused on understanding
© 2014, CAAS. All rights reserved. Published by Elsevier Ltd.
how the two specific genes of Chinese wheat respond to environmental stresses, which can be beneficial for grainyield improvement (Chang et al. 2014; Gao et al. 2014), while the rest two studies aimed to analyze the impacts of climate change on soil nematode community (Song et al. 2014) and soil organic matter (Shi S Q et al. 2014). The next group of four articles were mainly focused on the linkages between climate change and agricultural disasters, with emphasis on the drought response to climate change (Liang et al. 2014), interactions between drought and yield decrease in North China Plain (Hu et al. 2014), interactive effects of elevated CO2 and temperature on rice planthopper (Shi B K et al. 2014), and impacts of powdery mildew on winter wheat yield (Cao et al. 2014). The impacts of climate change on crop distribution and yields and their responses are finally addressed by the rest seven articles. Wang et al. (2014) used the phenology-adjusted spectral indices derived from Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer to develop liner regression models with the county-level yield data in Northeast China, while Chen C et al. (2014) studied the impacts of climate change on rice yield in China from 1961 to 2010 based on province data. Li W J et al. (2014) proposed an improved approach to identify the contribution shares of three group factors (climate, technology and input, social-economic factors) by which the rice production is shaped in Jiangxi Province. Additionally, three articles provide more specific insights on crop response issues. Ye et al. (2014) estimated the response of rice planting boundary to climate change in the southern China during 1951-2010, while Xia et al. (2014) aimed to explore the spatio-temporal changes in rice planting area in Northeast China over the period of 1980-2010 and to analyze their relationship to climate change. The study by Yang J et al. (2014) assessed the responses of rice yield to changes of climatic variables at both national and regional scales by using a regional calibrated crop model. Yu et al. (2014) made a different study, which used a survey-based method to develop a farmer-centered framework to explore how smallholder farmers perceive climate change and adapt their agricultural activities at a local level. In summary, these nineteen articles in this special issue present different views on interactions between climate change and China’s crop production system at
multiple time and space scales. It is acknowledged that a number of important aspects related to climate change impacts on crop production are not discussed in this issue - either because those topics have been published recently or because contributions were unavailable or not yet ready for publication. The findings can enrich our current knowledge and understanding on recent climate trends and impacts of these trends on crop production in China. They provide helpful insights to assist the development of effective adaptation measures as well as the more targeted improvement of current adaptation practices to climate change in China. All these can help to fully exploit the positive effects of global warming on crop production while mitigating its negative impacts. Moreover, the interactions between climate change and crop production are a complex issue that requires a multi-dimensional perspective and spatially and temporally explicit analysis. This requires a further collaboration between the social and natural sciences addressing food production, as well as a breaking down of barriers between the different disciplines and fields of analysis. TANG Hua-jun Associate Editor-in-Chief Key Laboratory of Agri-Informatics, Ministry of Agriculture/ Institute of Agricultural Resources and Regional Planning, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences Beijing 100081, P.R.China E-mail: [email protected] WU Wen-bin Guest Editor Key Laboratory of Agri-Informatics, Ministry of Agriculture/ Institute of Agricultural Resources and Regional Planning, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences Beijing 100081, P.R.China E-mail: [email protected] YANG Peng Guest Editor Key Laboratory of Agri-Informatics,
© 2014, CAAS. All rights reserved. Published by Elsevier Ltd.
Ministry of Agriculture/ Institute of Agricultural Resources and Regional Planning, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences Beijing 100081, P.R.China E-mail: [email protected] LI Zheng-guo Guest Editor Key Laboratory of Agri-Informatics, Ministry of Agriculture/ Institute of Agricultural Resources and Regional Planning, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences Beijing 100081, P.R.China E-mail: [email protected]
References
Barry S, Cai Y. 1996. Climate change and agriculture in China. Global Environmental Change, 6, 205-214. Cao X R, Yao D M, Duan X Y, Liu W, Fan J R, Ding K J, Zhou Y L. 2014. Effects of powdery wildew on 1000-kernel weight, crude protein content and yield of winter wheat in three consecutive growing seasons. Journal of Integrative Agriculture, 13, 1530-1537. Chang J Z, Hao C Y, Chang X P, Zhang X Y, Jing R L. 2014. HapIII of TaSAP1-A1, a positively selected haplotype in wheat breeding. Journal of Integrative Agriculture, 13, 1462-1668. Chen C, Zhou G S, Zhou L. 2014. Impacts of climate change on rice yield in China from 1961 to 2010 based on province data. Journal of Integrative Agriculture, 13, 1555-1564. Chen K, Hsu C, Goodland A. 2014. Managing climate change risk in China’s agricultural sector: The potential for an integrated risk management framework. Journal of Integrative Agriculture, 13, 1418-1431.
Chen Y, Wu Z, Okamoto K, Han X, Ma G, Chien H, Zhao J. 2013. The impacts of climate change on crops in China: a Ricardian analysis. Global Planetary Change, 104, 61-74.
Gao L F, Liu P, Gu Y C, Jia J Z. 2014. Allelic variation in loci for adaptive response and its effect on agronomical traits in Chinese wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) Journal of Integrative Agriculture, 13, 1466-1476. Hu Y N, Liu Y J, Tang H J, Xu Y L, Pan J. 2014. Contribution of drought to potential crop yield reduction in a wheatmaize rotation region in the North China Plain. Journal of Integrative Agriculture, 13, 1509-1519. IPCC Climate Change. 2013. The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.
Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA.
Ju H, van der Velde M, Lin E, Xiong W, Li Y. 2013. The impacts of climate change on agricultural production systems in China. Climatic Change, 120, 313-324. Kang Y, Khan S, Ma X. 2009. Climate change impacts on crop yield, crop water productivity and food security - A review. Progress in Natural Science, 19, 1665-1674.
Li W J, Tang H J, Qin Z H, You F, Wang X F, Chen C L, Ji J H, Liu X M. 2014. Climate change impact and its contribution share to paddy rice production in Jiangxi China. Journal of Integrative Agriculture, 13, 1565-1574.
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