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Tackling the barriers to progress
Reports Table 2. Projections of pharmaceuticals manufacture in space. Source Rockwell International InternationalResource Development Center for Space Policy Booz Alien & Hamilton/ McDonnell Douglas
Pharmaceutical market $20 billion
Year 1990s
$ 5 billion $27 billion
1996 200O
$20-40 billion
2O0O
Source: AS Table 1. and financiers as to the imminence of regular returns on investment. For its part, the space community - those in scientific research, in the aerospace corporations and in government and its agencies - has begun to beat the commercial drum in response both to the need to justify the spending of large sums from public treasuries' coffers and to a growing perception that commerce and industry must ultimately come to serve space markets
which, inter alia, respond to user/ c o n s u m e r n e e d s and which are marked by competition and choice as distinctive attributes.
David Green Guildford, UK Conference proceedings are available from Online Publications, Pinner Green House, Ash Hill Drive, Pinner, Middlesex HA5 2AE, UK (Tel: 01-868 4466; telex: 923498 ONLINE G).
Tackling the barriers to progress Over 200 people attended the 'International Business in Space' conference, organized by the Center for Space Policy Inc, Cambridge, MA, USA, in Washington, DC, 9-11 January 1985. The official focus- commercial space developments in the USA, Canada, Europe and Japan - was somewhat of a misnomer. While US, Canadian and European views and interests were well represented, the Japanese element was almost completely absent. Virtually every category of organization likely to be involved in the 'industrialization of space' was strongly represented: government agencies, major and mediumsized aerospace companies, entrepreneurial space firms, and service organizations, eg consulting groups, law firms and financial institutions. Not surprisingly at this stage, attendance by non-aerospace potential users of space was very weak. This report highlights two major themes - international cooperation and the role of governments. The transition from international cooperative endeavours with scientific objectives to those with strong commercial orientations has generated increasing conflict and tension. Nonetheless, treatment of cooperation issues during the conference was extremely delicate. The European panel members in particular were so diplomatic that the ambivalence surrounding these issues was largely concealed. In one case, an American panel member cited Spacelab as one of the 'most successful international cooperative efforts'. The comment was not
SPACE
POUCY
May 1985
contested despite the bitterness many Europeans feel about the outcome of this 'joint' endeavour. The terms were fully agreed on from the outset. Even so, some Europeans resent having invested close to $1 billion in a project which they used once and then promptly turned over to the Americans; and for which they must now sign up like everyone else and pay the going rates. The next 'great cooperative effort', the proposed US space station, was highlighted throughout the conference. Participation by the Europeans, Canadians and Japanese is almost
certain; so are the conflicts implicit in such a venture. Dr Udo Pollvogt, president of the Erno USA, pointed out a fundamental contradiction: 'President Reagan proposed the space station to enhance US technological leadership and competitiveness'. At the same time, the President invited the participation of foreigners whose motivations to join the station project, of course, includes 'keeping up with the Americans'. Pollvogt insisted that European involvement in the space station will be conditional on strong guarantees from the U S A for non-discriminatory access to the facilities and necessary ancillary services. This is especially applicable to commercial undertakings. Technology transfer during space station development is often cited as a likely source of international conflict. During the conference, however, Dr Terence Finn, Deputy Director of Policy and Plans at N A S A , bluntly denied this. According to Finn, the space station will be composed of discrete modules with 'clean interfaces' and thus technology-transfer difficulties should not arise. Many conference participants found this perspective difficult to accept. Finally, European speakers indicated that ultimate autonomy will be an important consideration for future European activity in cooperative programmes. The proposed Columbus project, for example, will presumably be designed to permit the transition from a Shuttle-dependent to an autonomous structure.
Role of governments The conference reconfirmed that the speed and nature of the evolution of space commercialization and privatization will vary substantially between space powers. According to George Van Reethe, ESA's Director of Administration, commercialization will certainly 'take place slower in Europe than in the US' due to European governments' traditionally heavy involvement in the space and similar industries. From the presentations by US officials, the US government indeed
217
Reports appeared to be the most progressive with regard to the commercialization of space. During his keynote address, NASA Administrator, James Beggs, urged the private sector, entrepreneurs in particular, to assist in the industrialization of space. Specifically, Beggs invited industry's suggestions, cooperation and experimentation. Beggs reminded the audience of NASA's technical and financial assistance programmes to encourage such activities.
Conflicting agenda Despite its good intentions, US government directions in this nascent field are frequently unclear, sometimes contradictory. This seems primarily attributable to the newness of the field as well as to conflicting 'agenda' of the different government agencies involved, such as NASA, the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), and the Department of Transportation (DOT). The inability of top officials such as Isaac Gillam (NASA Assistant Administrator for Commercial Programs), Chet Lee (Director of STS Customer Services), or Jennifer Dorn (DOT Director of Commercial Space Transportation), to provide the audience with future Shuttle prices exemplifies these difficulties. Astrotech Vice President George Baker believes that given the circumstances, such problems are to be expected. Nonetheless, they 'must be recognized and anticipated by those in the private sector and who would join in the march toward space commercialization as (such problems) will impact the cost and schedule associated with any space commercialization venture. On the other hand, this lack of definitive regulation and tradition leaves much opportunity for creative thinking and innovation'. Several other speakers from the private sector concurred with Baker. They further indicated that their experiences working with the US government had, thus far, been positive; although following the necessary procedures often seemed inordinately long. Finally, a number of speakers recommended close cooperation - the meshing of company objectives with
218
NASA goals and requirements - as the most effective approach for dealing with the government in this field.
Conclusions Overall, optimism towards space commercialization prevailed during the symposium while the simultaneous need for great patience was emphasized repeatedly. In the end, one of the greatest values of the conference
was that it seemed to strengthen general commitment to tackle the various regulatory, technical and mar ket barriers which currently inhibit progress and development m this international business of space.
Susan Gall Brookstone INSEAD Boulevard de Constance 77305 Fontainebleau, France
Consideration of space activities by the UN General Assembly The thirty-ninth session of the United Nations General Assembly affirmed 'that complete and general disarmament warrants that outer space should be used exclusively for peaceful purposes and that it shall not become an arena for an arms race'. This text appears in the first of two important resolutions concerning outer space adopted by the General Assembly during its last session. Also in the first resolution, entitled 'Prevention of an Arms Race in Outer Space' (,4/39/59 of 12 December 1984), the Assembly called upon all states, particularly those with major space capabilities, to contribute actively to the objective of the peaceful uses of outer space and to take immediate measures to prevent an arms race in outer space in the interest of maintaining international peace and security and promoting international cooperation and understanding.
The Assembly emphasized that further effective measures with appropriate and effective provisions for verification to prevent an arms race in outer space should be adopted by the international community. The Genevabased Conference on Disarmament was requested to establish an ad hoc committee with a view to undertaking negotiations for the conclusion of an international agreement to prevent an arms race in all its aspects in outer space. The Assembly also urged the USA and the Soviet Union to begin immediate negotiations in a constructive spirit, aimed at preventing an arms race in outer space and to advise the Conference on Disarmament regularly on the progress of these talks. This first resolution was originally sponsored by Egypt and Sri Lanka and subsequently cosponsored by several other non-aligned countries as well as China, Austria and Sweden. It was adopted by a vote of 150 for, none
against, and one abstention (the USA). In explaining its vote, the USA. which voted against a similar resolution in the previous year, stated that it regards its inability to vote for the resolution 'not in anger, but in sorrow'. The USA stated that the reason for its abstention was because it could not agree with the paragraph in the resolution requesting the Conference on Disarmament to establish an ad hoc committee to undertake negotiations for the conclusion of an agreement, against which it had voted in a separate vote called for by the USA on the paragraph dealing with the matter. In the second resolution (A/39/96 of 14 D e c e m b e r 1984), which was adopted by consensus, the General Assembly requested the United Nations Committee on the Peaceful Uses of Outer Space (COPUOS) to consider, as a matter of priority, ways and means for maintaining outer space for
SPACE POLICY May 1985
Pharmaceutical market $20 billion
Year 1990s
$ 5 billion $27 billion
1996 200O
$20-40 billion
2O0O
Source: AS Table 1. and financiers as to the imminence of regular returns on investment. For its part, the space community - those in scientific research, in the aerospace corporations and in government and its agencies - has begun to beat the commercial drum in response both to the need to justify the spending of large sums from public treasuries' coffers and to a growing perception that commerce and industry must ultimately come to serve space markets
which, inter alia, respond to user/ c o n s u m e r n e e d s and which are marked by competition and choice as distinctive attributes.
David Green Guildford, UK Conference proceedings are available from Online Publications, Pinner Green House, Ash Hill Drive, Pinner, Middlesex HA5 2AE, UK (Tel: 01-868 4466; telex: 923498 ONLINE G).
Tackling the barriers to progress Over 200 people attended the 'International Business in Space' conference, organized by the Center for Space Policy Inc, Cambridge, MA, USA, in Washington, DC, 9-11 January 1985. The official focus- commercial space developments in the USA, Canada, Europe and Japan - was somewhat of a misnomer. While US, Canadian and European views and interests were well represented, the Japanese element was almost completely absent. Virtually every category of organization likely to be involved in the 'industrialization of space' was strongly represented: government agencies, major and mediumsized aerospace companies, entrepreneurial space firms, and service organizations, eg consulting groups, law firms and financial institutions. Not surprisingly at this stage, attendance by non-aerospace potential users of space was very weak. This report highlights two major themes - international cooperation and the role of governments. The transition from international cooperative endeavours with scientific objectives to those with strong commercial orientations has generated increasing conflict and tension. Nonetheless, treatment of cooperation issues during the conference was extremely delicate. The European panel members in particular were so diplomatic that the ambivalence surrounding these issues was largely concealed. In one case, an American panel member cited Spacelab as one of the 'most successful international cooperative efforts'. The comment was not
SPACE
POUCY
May 1985
contested despite the bitterness many Europeans feel about the outcome of this 'joint' endeavour. The terms were fully agreed on from the outset. Even so, some Europeans resent having invested close to $1 billion in a project which they used once and then promptly turned over to the Americans; and for which they must now sign up like everyone else and pay the going rates. The next 'great cooperative effort', the proposed US space station, was highlighted throughout the conference. Participation by the Europeans, Canadians and Japanese is almost
certain; so are the conflicts implicit in such a venture. Dr Udo Pollvogt, president of the Erno USA, pointed out a fundamental contradiction: 'President Reagan proposed the space station to enhance US technological leadership and competitiveness'. At the same time, the President invited the participation of foreigners whose motivations to join the station project, of course, includes 'keeping up with the Americans'. Pollvogt insisted that European involvement in the space station will be conditional on strong guarantees from the U S A for non-discriminatory access to the facilities and necessary ancillary services. This is especially applicable to commercial undertakings. Technology transfer during space station development is often cited as a likely source of international conflict. During the conference, however, Dr Terence Finn, Deputy Director of Policy and Plans at N A S A , bluntly denied this. According to Finn, the space station will be composed of discrete modules with 'clean interfaces' and thus technology-transfer difficulties should not arise. Many conference participants found this perspective difficult to accept. Finally, European speakers indicated that ultimate autonomy will be an important consideration for future European activity in cooperative programmes. The proposed Columbus project, for example, will presumably be designed to permit the transition from a Shuttle-dependent to an autonomous structure.
Role of governments The conference reconfirmed that the speed and nature of the evolution of space commercialization and privatization will vary substantially between space powers. According to George Van Reethe, ESA's Director of Administration, commercialization will certainly 'take place slower in Europe than in the US' due to European governments' traditionally heavy involvement in the space and similar industries. From the presentations by US officials, the US government indeed
217
Reports appeared to be the most progressive with regard to the commercialization of space. During his keynote address, NASA Administrator, James Beggs, urged the private sector, entrepreneurs in particular, to assist in the industrialization of space. Specifically, Beggs invited industry's suggestions, cooperation and experimentation. Beggs reminded the audience of NASA's technical and financial assistance programmes to encourage such activities.
Conflicting agenda Despite its good intentions, US government directions in this nascent field are frequently unclear, sometimes contradictory. This seems primarily attributable to the newness of the field as well as to conflicting 'agenda' of the different government agencies involved, such as NASA, the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), and the Department of Transportation (DOT). The inability of top officials such as Isaac Gillam (NASA Assistant Administrator for Commercial Programs), Chet Lee (Director of STS Customer Services), or Jennifer Dorn (DOT Director of Commercial Space Transportation), to provide the audience with future Shuttle prices exemplifies these difficulties. Astrotech Vice President George Baker believes that given the circumstances, such problems are to be expected. Nonetheless, they 'must be recognized and anticipated by those in the private sector and who would join in the march toward space commercialization as (such problems) will impact the cost and schedule associated with any space commercialization venture. On the other hand, this lack of definitive regulation and tradition leaves much opportunity for creative thinking and innovation'. Several other speakers from the private sector concurred with Baker. They further indicated that their experiences working with the US government had, thus far, been positive; although following the necessary procedures often seemed inordinately long. Finally, a number of speakers recommended close cooperation - the meshing of company objectives with
218
NASA goals and requirements - as the most effective approach for dealing with the government in this field.
Conclusions Overall, optimism towards space commercialization prevailed during the symposium while the simultaneous need for great patience was emphasized repeatedly. In the end, one of the greatest values of the conference
was that it seemed to strengthen general commitment to tackle the various regulatory, technical and mar ket barriers which currently inhibit progress and development m this international business of space.
Susan Gall Brookstone INSEAD Boulevard de Constance 77305 Fontainebleau, France
Consideration of space activities by the UN General Assembly The thirty-ninth session of the United Nations General Assembly affirmed 'that complete and general disarmament warrants that outer space should be used exclusively for peaceful purposes and that it shall not become an arena for an arms race'. This text appears in the first of two important resolutions concerning outer space adopted by the General Assembly during its last session. Also in the first resolution, entitled 'Prevention of an Arms Race in Outer Space' (,4/39/59 of 12 December 1984), the Assembly called upon all states, particularly those with major space capabilities, to contribute actively to the objective of the peaceful uses of outer space and to take immediate measures to prevent an arms race in outer space in the interest of maintaining international peace and security and promoting international cooperation and understanding.
The Assembly emphasized that further effective measures with appropriate and effective provisions for verification to prevent an arms race in outer space should be adopted by the international community. The Genevabased Conference on Disarmament was requested to establish an ad hoc committee with a view to undertaking negotiations for the conclusion of an international agreement to prevent an arms race in all its aspects in outer space. The Assembly also urged the USA and the Soviet Union to begin immediate negotiations in a constructive spirit, aimed at preventing an arms race in outer space and to advise the Conference on Disarmament regularly on the progress of these talks. This first resolution was originally sponsored by Egypt and Sri Lanka and subsequently cosponsored by several other non-aligned countries as well as China, Austria and Sweden. It was adopted by a vote of 150 for, none
against, and one abstention (the USA). In explaining its vote, the USA. which voted against a similar resolution in the previous year, stated that it regards its inability to vote for the resolution 'not in anger, but in sorrow'. The USA stated that the reason for its abstention was because it could not agree with the paragraph in the resolution requesting the Conference on Disarmament to establish an ad hoc committee to undertake negotiations for the conclusion of an agreement, against which it had voted in a separate vote called for by the USA on the paragraph dealing with the matter. In the second resolution (A/39/96 of 14 D e c e m b e r 1984), which was adopted by consensus, the General Assembly requested the United Nations Committee on the Peaceful Uses of Outer Space (COPUOS) to consider, as a matter of priority, ways and means for maintaining outer space for
SPACE POLICY May 1985