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Taking Scotland's polls
Toby Melville/Reuters
Upfront
Taking Scotland’s polls IS SCOTLAND poised to withdraw from the UK? Two opinion polls published this week suggest the “yes” campaign has passed the 50 per cent mark and could be on track to win the Scottish referendum on independence on 18 September. But headlines aside, it is too close to call, and polling realities suggest either side could be the true leaders at this stage. Opinion polls are typically based on a sample of 1000 people, which means that even if the sample is randomised and representative of the voting population, statistical theories say the margin of error is 3 per cent. In other words, a 50-50 poll split could easily emerge as 47-53 in the real vote. And while many polls shoot for randomness, there may well be biases in the polled sample, meaning the
margin of error is even greater. “If someone asks us for a margin of error we’ll say 3 per cent,” says Anthony Wells of polling firm YouGov, but he adds that a variety of factors mean that this can only be a rule of thumb. YouGov published the first yes-leading poll on Saturday, with a 51-49 split. Undecided voters are also a key factor missing from the headlines. YouGov’s poll actually showed “yes” on 47 per cent, “no” on 45 per cent and “don’t know” on 8 per cent. A TNS poll published Tuesday shows a 50-50 split with “don’t knows” excluded, but the firm places them at 23 per cent. Undecided voters don’t usually make it into the headlines but they will probably tip the balance in determining Scotland’s future.
Attacking Ebola
developers and African health authorities approved the plan on 5 September in Geneva, Switzerland. “We must move as fast as possible.” Ethical guidelines allow treatments that haven’t been fully tested and approved to be used to try and save lives – as long as information is gathered to help establish whether the treatment works. The Geneva meeting agreed to test two experimental vaccines and a handful of other treatments on this basis, including giving patients blood from Ebola survivors.
–Border patrol–
Low-carbon payout
says a study by consultants at Cambridge Econometrics. About half the gain would come from cheap running costs for fuelefficient cars, with 190,000 new green jobs and higher wages also helping. The average household would be £565 a year better off. The findings chime with a study by the Institute for Public Policy Research in London. The IPPR says the European Union could end its dependence on gas from Russia through better energy efficiency. The EU pays Russia €31 billion a year for gas, much of it coming along pipelines through Ukraine.
“YOU can go green and continue to prosper and develop,” said Ed Davey, the UK secretary for energy and climate, on 9 September. And the evidence is on his side. Economists say that, despite the
expense, drastic cuts in the UK’s carbon dioxide emissions will boost the country’s economy. The finding should encourage action to reduce CO2 levels, which reached a new high in 2013, according to a report by the World Meteorological Organization. The growth from 2012 was the biggest jump since 1984, and may be partly down to plants and other organisms taking in less CO2. If climate change isn’t incentive enough to cut emissions, try this: if the UK cut its carbon emissions by 60 per cent from 1990 levels by 2030, as it has promised, its GDP would be 1.1 per cent bigger than if it stuck with fossil fuels, 6 | NewScientist | 13 September 2014
Carlos Garcia Rawlins / Reuters
“If the UK cut its carbon emissions by 60 per cent by 2030, its GDP would rise 1.1 per cent”
SCIENCE to the rescue in West Africa? The World Health Organization is launching an emergency programme to test experimental treatments on people who have Ebola, in a bid to stem the epidemic. The move will get round regulatory barriers that have so far stopped one promising drug that is almost fully tested from being used in the epidemic. “This is absolutely unprecedented,” said Marie-Paule Kieny, head of innovation at the WHO, after a meeting of drug
All babies the same BABIES come in all shapes and sizes – or so you might imagine. According to new international growth charts, all newborns should be broadly the same size, regardless of ethnicity or their mother’s size. Nutrition and health are the only factors that make a difference. Standardised charts already exist for a child’s growth from birth to age 5, but until now, there –Only one size available– was no internationally agreed
Upfront
Taking Scotland’s polls IS SCOTLAND poised to withdraw from the UK? Two opinion polls published this week suggest the “yes” campaign has passed the 50 per cent mark and could be on track to win the Scottish referendum on independence on 18 September. But headlines aside, it is too close to call, and polling realities suggest either side could be the true leaders at this stage. Opinion polls are typically based on a sample of 1000 people, which means that even if the sample is randomised and representative of the voting population, statistical theories say the margin of error is 3 per cent. In other words, a 50-50 poll split could easily emerge as 47-53 in the real vote. And while many polls shoot for randomness, there may well be biases in the polled sample, meaning the
margin of error is even greater. “If someone asks us for a margin of error we’ll say 3 per cent,” says Anthony Wells of polling firm YouGov, but he adds that a variety of factors mean that this can only be a rule of thumb. YouGov published the first yes-leading poll on Saturday, with a 51-49 split. Undecided voters are also a key factor missing from the headlines. YouGov’s poll actually showed “yes” on 47 per cent, “no” on 45 per cent and “don’t know” on 8 per cent. A TNS poll published Tuesday shows a 50-50 split with “don’t knows” excluded, but the firm places them at 23 per cent. Undecided voters don’t usually make it into the headlines but they will probably tip the balance in determining Scotland’s future.
Attacking Ebola
developers and African health authorities approved the plan on 5 September in Geneva, Switzerland. “We must move as fast as possible.” Ethical guidelines allow treatments that haven’t been fully tested and approved to be used to try and save lives – as long as information is gathered to help establish whether the treatment works. The Geneva meeting agreed to test two experimental vaccines and a handful of other treatments on this basis, including giving patients blood from Ebola survivors.
–Border patrol–
Low-carbon payout
says a study by consultants at Cambridge Econometrics. About half the gain would come from cheap running costs for fuelefficient cars, with 190,000 new green jobs and higher wages also helping. The average household would be £565 a year better off. The findings chime with a study by the Institute for Public Policy Research in London. The IPPR says the European Union could end its dependence on gas from Russia through better energy efficiency. The EU pays Russia €31 billion a year for gas, much of it coming along pipelines through Ukraine.
“YOU can go green and continue to prosper and develop,” said Ed Davey, the UK secretary for energy and climate, on 9 September. And the evidence is on his side. Economists say that, despite the
expense, drastic cuts in the UK’s carbon dioxide emissions will boost the country’s economy. The finding should encourage action to reduce CO2 levels, which reached a new high in 2013, according to a report by the World Meteorological Organization. The growth from 2012 was the biggest jump since 1984, and may be partly down to plants and other organisms taking in less CO2. If climate change isn’t incentive enough to cut emissions, try this: if the UK cut its carbon emissions by 60 per cent from 1990 levels by 2030, as it has promised, its GDP would be 1.1 per cent bigger than if it stuck with fossil fuels, 6 | NewScientist | 13 September 2014
Carlos Garcia Rawlins / Reuters
“If the UK cut its carbon emissions by 60 per cent by 2030, its GDP would rise 1.1 per cent”
SCIENCE to the rescue in West Africa? The World Health Organization is launching an emergency programme to test experimental treatments on people who have Ebola, in a bid to stem the epidemic. The move will get round regulatory barriers that have so far stopped one promising drug that is almost fully tested from being used in the epidemic. “This is absolutely unprecedented,” said Marie-Paule Kieny, head of innovation at the WHO, after a meeting of drug
All babies the same BABIES come in all shapes and sizes – or so you might imagine. According to new international growth charts, all newborns should be broadly the same size, regardless of ethnicity or their mother’s size. Nutrition and health are the only factors that make a difference. Standardised charts already exist for a child’s growth from birth to age 5, but until now, there –Only one size available– was no internationally agreed