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Technology assessment and the oceans
Volume9/Number 3/March 1978
Norfolk Broads Controversy Sir, Though no one denies that the supply of nutrients from cultivated land to the Norfolk Broads has increased, particularly since the 1940s and 50s, it seems that Dr C. F. Mason (Mar. Pollut. Bull., 8, 244) may not be aware of the large amount of recent work that has been done in the area concerning the relative importance of land drainage and sewage effluent and other excretory sources. I will be happy to furnish a list of references to anyone interested. The truth of the matter is that those Broads and drainage channels which still have large stands of submerged water plants, for which Broadland was once famous, derive their nutrient loading only or primarily from land drainage. As Dr Mason says, land drainage is the only nutrient source ramifying through the Broads system. Where the switch from macrophyte dominated lakes with clear water to phytoplankton dominated lakes with turbid water, and its associated serious economic and conservation problems has occurred, we have been able to show that an additional phosphorus loading, usually about three times the size of the land drainage loading, has been involved. The figure of 60o-/0
Marine Resource Potential Technology Assessment and the Oceans edited by P. D. Wilmot & A. Slingerland. Proc. International Conference on Technology Assessment, Monaco, 26-30 October 1975. IPC Science & Technology Press, 269 + xi pp. (1977). Price: £12.00. (Available in US from Westview Press Inc., 1898 Flatiron Court, Boulder, COL 8030!). Four chapters of this book contain the core of information on the subject. These are Minerals, Oil and Gas, Food from the Sea and Pollution. The rest are well summarized in the statement in Hill's paper in relation to uranium extraction from the sea: "These sometimes contradictory propositions are good for a number of conferences, much notoriety and masses of typescript, but they do not provide much light on the usefulness or otherwise" of marine technology assessment. The first two papers in the chapter on Minerals discuss the mining of ferromanganese nodules from the ocean depths; and there the similarity ends. Mero gives a story-book account of an industrial revolution caused by cheap and readily available resources of Cu, Ni, Co, Mo, Zr etc. It is a very optimistic paper in that the problems involved in deep ocean mining tend to be
for land drainage quoted by Dr Mason has been drastically reduced by better measurements and understanding of the hydrology. The added loading has come from sewage treatment works effluent, septic tank drainage very close to inflow channels, and, in one case, burgeoning populations of roosting black-headed gulls. The field data have been used to validate a mathematical model which can be used to show that a similar situation exists elsewhere in Broadland where we have not yet completed detailed nutrient budgets. That restriction of the excretory sources must ultimately allow reinstatement of macrophyte beds has been shown by the simple experiments of the Nature Conservancy Council at the Bure Marshes National Nature Reserve. By isolating channels and pools fed by land drainage water from the effluent rich River Bure which used to flow into them, quite dramatic and rapid reinstatement of water plants has been achieved. Land drainage water supplies much of the nitrogen necessary to create the large phytoplankton populations but not the phosphorus. To reverse the changes that have taken place it is necessary to restrict only one essential algal nutrient. On both chemical and economic grounds phosphorus is a superior candidate to nitrogen.
School of Environmental Science, University ofEast A nglia, Norwich, U.K.
BRIAN MOSS
dramatically understated; for example "exploration is simple and inexpensive" and " n o need f o r . . , equipment other than the surface vessel and its simple and inexpensive CLB (continuous line bucket) system". Blissenbach's paper comes like a bucket of cold water after this, his more realistic review pays more attention to actual experience in the research involved. It is pointed out that early estimates of time schedules were too optimistic for three reasons: "a realization is technically more difficult than originally foreseen; the legal issue is unsolved; and there are doubts as to the economics of nodule exploitation". Mero suggests that all copper would soon be mined from the ocean in direct contradiction to Blissenbach's forecast (0.7 to 1.5°7o of World's demand for copper will come from the oceans by 2000). Blissenbach also offers the opinion that the overoptimistic expectations from nodule exploitation have had a detrimental effect on political negotiations on the Law of the Sea. Estrup's paper mainly concerns the possibility of extracting metals from seawater. Of necessity the formula devised ("the price of a metal is inversely proportional to the square root of the average ore grade") must be regarded as somewhat tentative; nevertheless this is an interesting account as it puts seawater mineral resources into perspective. Hill's study of the possibility of extracting uranium from seawater is similarly hypothetical but, being more detailed, provides a useful illustration of how studies of this type can be carried out and what they can be expected to achieve. 83
M ; l l l l I C I ' ~ l l h l l l o l l |{tIII¢llll
In the chapter on Oil and Gas, Brondel's paper on the offshore oil and gas industry is concise, informative and factual although marred by some numerical errors. Although lengthy, Spangler's paper is a comprehensive account of the way in which scenarios can be devised and conducted. The two examples given (high impact scenario on oil and gas of the continental slope and rise) are both relevant to the theme of this volume; they demonstrate the method more than adequately and serve as a recommendation of the use of scenarios. It is interesting to note that more importance has been attached to forecasting in recent years, in particular since the 1974 price rises. Although the description by Jones et al. of plans for scenario development are very laudable, it is more or less what would be expected for this type of project. Had results of the project been divulged it may have been quite interesting, but as a "statement of good works intended", this paper seems somewhat lacking after Spangler's paper. The evaluation by Goss et al. of the impact of OTEC (ocean thermal energy conversion) and other energy sources seems rather dubious, particularly as the figures for the Indexes of net impact and desirability are quoted to two decimal places. Hopefully the Tables will emphasize the desirability of research into OTEC and other non-nuclear and non-fossil fuel energy resources. The interesting, informative and comprehensive review of Canada's energy resources and resource policies given by McQueen seems somewhat out of place in this volume as it barely touches on either marine energy resources or on technological assessments. Matteelli et al. present what appears to be a most interesting paper on the problems of pipelining in deep water. It is somewhat unfortunate that there is only one paper on this subject; most other subjects are covered by two. The four papers on Food from the Sea look at the potential and the limitations (inherent and imposed) for
84
harvesting marine protein. Rey outlines the hazards of growing marine pollution, the inadequacies of international law and cultural idiosyncracies in order to counterbalance the prodigious biological potential of marine ecosystems with the miserable, myopic nature of the human condition. Nishimura draws attention to the fact that current technology is sufficiently advanced to develop some of the potential (e.g. Japanese mariculture). What is needed, is an input of cash and political awareness in order to mount the necessary experimentation and pilot schemes. In particular, we need to know a lot more about the biology of marine food organisms. The paper by Wilcox reviews the results of an offshore kelp farm off San Clemente Island and is particularly exciting. The rationale for devising schemes for harvesting the products of marine primary production is self-evident and the future should be bright--at least in this instance. Edwardson's paper on gross energy requirements for the fishing industry, primarily concludes that fuel oil is expensive! The section on pollution comprises three competently presented papers. Attention is drawn by Marsden & Taylor to the problems of assessing the biological effects of oil pollution, mainly due to our poor understanding of marine biological systems and the dubious nature of extrapolation from laboratory results. Cramer points out that although the technology required to monitor and assess global pollution could be developed from present knowledge, the international scientific structure required to operate such a scheme is lacking. Rothman & Bartlett demonstrate that pollution could be alleviated by conversion to useful food products using available or developing technology. Meanwhile pollution of 'man's last resource' is growing annually. BRUCE DENNESS
Norfolk Broads Controversy Sir, Though no one denies that the supply of nutrients from cultivated land to the Norfolk Broads has increased, particularly since the 1940s and 50s, it seems that Dr C. F. Mason (Mar. Pollut. Bull., 8, 244) may not be aware of the large amount of recent work that has been done in the area concerning the relative importance of land drainage and sewage effluent and other excretory sources. I will be happy to furnish a list of references to anyone interested. The truth of the matter is that those Broads and drainage channels which still have large stands of submerged water plants, for which Broadland was once famous, derive their nutrient loading only or primarily from land drainage. As Dr Mason says, land drainage is the only nutrient source ramifying through the Broads system. Where the switch from macrophyte dominated lakes with clear water to phytoplankton dominated lakes with turbid water, and its associated serious economic and conservation problems has occurred, we have been able to show that an additional phosphorus loading, usually about three times the size of the land drainage loading, has been involved. The figure of 60o-/0
Marine Resource Potential Technology Assessment and the Oceans edited by P. D. Wilmot & A. Slingerland. Proc. International Conference on Technology Assessment, Monaco, 26-30 October 1975. IPC Science & Technology Press, 269 + xi pp. (1977). Price: £12.00. (Available in US from Westview Press Inc., 1898 Flatiron Court, Boulder, COL 8030!). Four chapters of this book contain the core of information on the subject. These are Minerals, Oil and Gas, Food from the Sea and Pollution. The rest are well summarized in the statement in Hill's paper in relation to uranium extraction from the sea: "These sometimes contradictory propositions are good for a number of conferences, much notoriety and masses of typescript, but they do not provide much light on the usefulness or otherwise" of marine technology assessment. The first two papers in the chapter on Minerals discuss the mining of ferromanganese nodules from the ocean depths; and there the similarity ends. Mero gives a story-book account of an industrial revolution caused by cheap and readily available resources of Cu, Ni, Co, Mo, Zr etc. It is a very optimistic paper in that the problems involved in deep ocean mining tend to be
for land drainage quoted by Dr Mason has been drastically reduced by better measurements and understanding of the hydrology. The added loading has come from sewage treatment works effluent, septic tank drainage very close to inflow channels, and, in one case, burgeoning populations of roosting black-headed gulls. The field data have been used to validate a mathematical model which can be used to show that a similar situation exists elsewhere in Broadland where we have not yet completed detailed nutrient budgets. That restriction of the excretory sources must ultimately allow reinstatement of macrophyte beds has been shown by the simple experiments of the Nature Conservancy Council at the Bure Marshes National Nature Reserve. By isolating channels and pools fed by land drainage water from the effluent rich River Bure which used to flow into them, quite dramatic and rapid reinstatement of water plants has been achieved. Land drainage water supplies much of the nitrogen necessary to create the large phytoplankton populations but not the phosphorus. To reverse the changes that have taken place it is necessary to restrict only one essential algal nutrient. On both chemical and economic grounds phosphorus is a superior candidate to nitrogen.
School of Environmental Science, University ofEast A nglia, Norwich, U.K.
BRIAN MOSS
dramatically understated; for example "exploration is simple and inexpensive" and " n o need f o r . . , equipment other than the surface vessel and its simple and inexpensive CLB (continuous line bucket) system". Blissenbach's paper comes like a bucket of cold water after this, his more realistic review pays more attention to actual experience in the research involved. It is pointed out that early estimates of time schedules were too optimistic for three reasons: "a realization is technically more difficult than originally foreseen; the legal issue is unsolved; and there are doubts as to the economics of nodule exploitation". Mero suggests that all copper would soon be mined from the ocean in direct contradiction to Blissenbach's forecast (0.7 to 1.5°7o of World's demand for copper will come from the oceans by 2000). Blissenbach also offers the opinion that the overoptimistic expectations from nodule exploitation have had a detrimental effect on political negotiations on the Law of the Sea. Estrup's paper mainly concerns the possibility of extracting metals from seawater. Of necessity the formula devised ("the price of a metal is inversely proportional to the square root of the average ore grade") must be regarded as somewhat tentative; nevertheless this is an interesting account as it puts seawater mineral resources into perspective. Hill's study of the possibility of extracting uranium from seawater is similarly hypothetical but, being more detailed, provides a useful illustration of how studies of this type can be carried out and what they can be expected to achieve. 83
M ; l l l l I C I ' ~ l l h l l l o l l |{tIII¢llll
In the chapter on Oil and Gas, Brondel's paper on the offshore oil and gas industry is concise, informative and factual although marred by some numerical errors. Although lengthy, Spangler's paper is a comprehensive account of the way in which scenarios can be devised and conducted. The two examples given (high impact scenario on oil and gas of the continental slope and rise) are both relevant to the theme of this volume; they demonstrate the method more than adequately and serve as a recommendation of the use of scenarios. It is interesting to note that more importance has been attached to forecasting in recent years, in particular since the 1974 price rises. Although the description by Jones et al. of plans for scenario development are very laudable, it is more or less what would be expected for this type of project. Had results of the project been divulged it may have been quite interesting, but as a "statement of good works intended", this paper seems somewhat lacking after Spangler's paper. The evaluation by Goss et al. of the impact of OTEC (ocean thermal energy conversion) and other energy sources seems rather dubious, particularly as the figures for the Indexes of net impact and desirability are quoted to two decimal places. Hopefully the Tables will emphasize the desirability of research into OTEC and other non-nuclear and non-fossil fuel energy resources. The interesting, informative and comprehensive review of Canada's energy resources and resource policies given by McQueen seems somewhat out of place in this volume as it barely touches on either marine energy resources or on technological assessments. Matteelli et al. present what appears to be a most interesting paper on the problems of pipelining in deep water. It is somewhat unfortunate that there is only one paper on this subject; most other subjects are covered by two. The four papers on Food from the Sea look at the potential and the limitations (inherent and imposed) for
84
harvesting marine protein. Rey outlines the hazards of growing marine pollution, the inadequacies of international law and cultural idiosyncracies in order to counterbalance the prodigious biological potential of marine ecosystems with the miserable, myopic nature of the human condition. Nishimura draws attention to the fact that current technology is sufficiently advanced to develop some of the potential (e.g. Japanese mariculture). What is needed, is an input of cash and political awareness in order to mount the necessary experimentation and pilot schemes. In particular, we need to know a lot more about the biology of marine food organisms. The paper by Wilcox reviews the results of an offshore kelp farm off San Clemente Island and is particularly exciting. The rationale for devising schemes for harvesting the products of marine primary production is self-evident and the future should be bright--at least in this instance. Edwardson's paper on gross energy requirements for the fishing industry, primarily concludes that fuel oil is expensive! The section on pollution comprises three competently presented papers. Attention is drawn by Marsden & Taylor to the problems of assessing the biological effects of oil pollution, mainly due to our poor understanding of marine biological systems and the dubious nature of extrapolation from laboratory results. Cramer points out that although the technology required to monitor and assess global pollution could be developed from present knowledge, the international scientific structure required to operate such a scheme is lacking. Rothman & Bartlett demonstrate that pollution could be alleviated by conversion to useful food products using available or developing technology. Meanwhile pollution of 'man's last resource' is growing annually. BRUCE DENNESS