Technology roadmap: Cattle farming sustainability in Germany

Journal of Cleaner Production xxx (2016) 1e17

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Technology roadmap: Cattle farming sustainability in Germany Alvaro Rigel Gallegos Rivero a, Tugrul Daim b, * a b

Technical University of Hamburg, Harburg, Germany Portland State University, Portland, OR, USA

a r t i c l e i n f o

a b s t r a c t

Article history: Received 8 August 2016 Received in revised form 27 November 2016 Accepted 28 November 2016 Available online xxx

Cattle farming is one of the most environmentally threatening industries worldwide. Its impact has been assessed as a main driver for soil degradation, deforestation, water bed contamination, and greenhouse gas emissions. Germany is one of the largest consumers and producers of livestock products in the world. This high volume demand for livestock forces farmers and consumers to import from overseas and increase national yields. Technologies worldwide are being developed with a focus on sustainability and cleaner production; however, this may not necessarily be easily adapted and implemented by German farmers. This paper uses the technology roadmap approach to propose a plan for implementing these technologies by identifying the barriers and actions to remove them. Aquaponics, grazing management, and capturing methane are current global trends used in the effort to reduce the impact of livestock. While aquaponics are at an early stage of development and implementation in Germany, grazing management techniques and methane processing on free range cattle are mostly still unknown and not implemented by farmers producing in the country. © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Keywords: Technology roadmap Cattle farming Sustainability Germany

1. Introduction Recent environmental trends suggest that population growth has forced an overexploiting of the world's resources in order to keep up with the demands of a large population. A measure currently used is related to the carbon footprint (Berners-Lee and Clark, 2010). The carbon footprint is defined as the amount of greenhouse gases (GHG) and specifically carbon dioxide emitted by something (as a person's activities or a product's manufacture and transport) during a given period (MerriameWebster, 2015). Studies related to the carbon footprint, GHG, and environment conservation have determined that at the resource consumption rates that we currently hold, the planet's natural resources may not be enough. Recent studies show alarming data suggesting that if the average global consumer had the same resource usage as the average American consumer, the resources of 4.7 planets would barely be enough to support such a high demand for resources (McDonald, 2015). While this data is largely attributed to the lifestyle of the country, it also indicates the hectares needed to support such a life rhythm allowing for an approximate calculation of the

* Corresponding author. E-mail address: [email protected] (T. Daim).

area needed (McDonald, 2015). The fact that such information places developed countries' resource consumption above developing countries has created controversy, and also received criticism due to the data collected to generate such statistical information. According to Linus Blomqvist, Director of Conservation at the Breakthrough Institute in California, there is no sufficient data to create a meaningful ecological footprint estimation, while researchers are still unable to assess and evaluate the sustainability of agricultural practices around the world, thus, being unable to present a solid report on to what extent the resources of earth are being overused (McDonald, 2015). Although it is still impossible to determine how intense the exploitation of our planet's resources is, we can pay attention to the trends driven by human population growth and their effect on the environment. When analyzing the effect of anthropogenic weather change factors, GHG plays an important role in the constant dilemma that arises on how to utilize the resources in order to minimize the damage. According to NASA, “Observations throughout the world make it clear that climate change is occurring, and rigorous scientific research demonstrates that the GHG emitted by human activities are the primary driver.” (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change and U.S. Global Change Research Program, 2009) When analyzing the drivers for human activity, due to changes in developing countries' economies, livestock farming now generates the most GHG emissions even above transportation and energy GHG emissions because of the

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Please cite this article in press as: Gallegos Rivero, A.R., Daim, T., Technology roadmap: Cattle farming sustainability in Germany, Journal of Cleaner Production (2016), http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2016.11.176

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increased demand for food, specifically meat and dairy products (FAO, 2006). The aim of this research is to analyze the current trends and technology available or in development that can enhance sustainable growth for the livestock industry, specifically in Germany. Germany has made several commitments to reduce their emissions of GHG, and is a leading nation in innovative technology (Appun, 2015). The technical solutions that are currently available that tackle the major problems of sustainable livestock farming will be analyzed, and mapped to the areas that would most benefit from them. Traditional livestock farming creates a high toll on resources, however technological innovations may present a sustainable alternative by encouraging livestock farmers to take a different approach to livestock farming. Prior research evaluated the impact of beef cattle through different perspectives including the impact of greenhouse gas emissions (Mogensen et al., 2014; Dudley et al., 2014; Cerri et al., 2016; de Figueiredo et al., 2017), the life cycle assessment in Brazil (Dick et al., 2015a,b), the water footprint in New Zealand (Zonderland-Thomassen et al., 2014), carbon, water, and land use impact (Ridoutt et al., 2014), environmental impact (Galka, 2004), and mitigation strategies (Dick et al., 2015a,b). This paper builds upon this type of research, and provides a framework to leverage such research to develop a plan for the future. 2. Literature review: livestock in context 2.1. Growing population The global population in 2014 was 7,238,184,000 people, and population statistics for that period show that 6 billion people lived in underdeveloped countries while 1.2 billion lived in developed countries. The global fertility rate was 2.5 children per woman ranging from single-child mothers in Taiwan up to 7 children per mother in Niger. Statistics also show that 53% of the global population lived in urban areas while the rest resided in rural zones. Projections for years 2030 and 2050 forecast population sizes of 8444 million people and 9683 million people respectively (Haub and Kaneda, 2014). The implications of supporting such a large population and to sustain its growth by supplying its demands for food, energy, and other resources have been a major concern for decades. To support such a large population, the earth biosphere has suffered transformations that have diverted natural resource availability from natural cycles into man-made facilities in order to supply humankind's demands. These man-made facilities are largely intended for agricultural purposes, housing, and energy generation. It is an industrialized process, which grows at accelerated pace. 2.2. Food for everyone Feeding such a large population has come with serious challenges. Population pressure is already challenging the traditional farming model where due to less land allotment, farmers have to work harder just to makes ends meet. For example, the rural population in Africa and Asia has nearly doubled between the years 1950 and 1985 with a corresponding decline in land availability (UN General Assembly, 1987). The growth rate of global demand for cereals was expected to rise 1.4 percent per year until 2015, and thereafter slightly reduce in demand increase to 1.2 percent per year, however in developing countries; an overall and general expectation is that production will not keep pace with demand. Supporting such growth from land alone, implies that in the upcoming 30 years, developing countries will need an overall increase of 12.5 percent in agricultural land (Harrison, 2002). At a global level, there is adequate unused potential farmland, where an extra

2.8 billion hectares are suitable to grow different types of crops. Nevertheless, while such area is already twice as much as what is currently used (Harrison, 2002), only a fraction of this extra land is realistically available for agricultural expansion in the foreseeable future, since much of it is needed to preserve forests and support infrastructural development, and another fraction is difficult to reach due to accessibility and other constrains (Harrison, 2002). 2.3. Environmental implications e forestry The role of forests in human economies is of major importance. Forests not only provide oxygen to the atmosphere by processing CO2 working as lungs for the planet, the forest industry also support 14 million people worldwide. Wood based fuels are the dominant source of energy for more than 2 billion people living in poverty. In Africa, over 90% of harvested wood is used for energy alone, however wood is not the only resource provided by forests. About 80% of people in the developing world use non-wood forests products for health and nutritional needs as well as for household income (FAO, 2010). To satisfy the growing demands of the rising population an important quota of resources from forests is claimed due to urbanization and agriculture. According to the Food and Agriculture Organization of the UN, deforestation in the past decade has affected an estimated 13 million hectares per year yielding a net change in forest areas in the period 2000e2010 of estimated -5.2 million hectares per year (FAO, 2010). Drivers for such a significant consumption of forests were previously linked to planned urbanization schemes and local farmers increasing their arable land, however studies from forty-one countries reveal that forest loss rates are most closely linked with the increase of urban population, and agricultural exports for more developed countries: “It's not about poor people chopping down trees. It's all the people in New York, Europe and elsewhere who want cheap products, primarily food.” e Scott Poynton, Executive Director of Tropical Forest Trust. The shift takes place from a small-scale farmer driven deforestation, to a large scale deforesting driven by distant urban growth, agricultural trade and exports having local population growth as a secondary driver and not primary as previously considered (Biello, 2010). Crop projections suggest that the cropland will need to be increased by an extra 120 million hectares by year 2030, while urban land areas will continue to grow a considerable amount. This land will have to come from forest clearance. In addition, by 2030 the annual world consumption of industrial round-wood is expected to rise by 60% of current levels, to nearly 2400 million cubic meters (Harrison, 2002). Livestock's role in deforestation is of particular importance, especially in Latin America where the largest net losses of forests and resulting carbon losses occur. In tropical Latin America, land used for extensive grazing has increased continuously over the past decades and most of this increase has been at the expense of forests. Throughout Latin America, rainforest conversion is dominated by the establishment primarily of pastures but also cropland, irrespective of the characteristics of soils, climate regimes, and topography. Pasture occupies the largest proportion of the agricultural land in the region, and to a large extent the profitability of cattle as a productive venture is low. However, this venture is highly lucrative if it ensures land occupation and ownership and thus access to profits due to ensuing land price increases (FAO, 2006). The most important change in land use in tropical Latin America over the last decades has been the widespread conversion of forest to pastureland. In Central America, forest area has been

Please cite this article in press as: Gallegos Rivero, A.R., Daim, T., Technology roadmap: Cattle farming sustainability in Germany, Journal of Cleaner Production (2016), http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2016.11.176

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reduced by almost 40% over the past four decades, with pasture and cattle population increasing rapidly over the same period. In addition, soybean and cereal production primarily destined for feed production has unleashed a wave of events leading to the destruction of natural habitats over vast areas to deforestation (FAO, 2006). 2.4. Environmental implications e water Unsustainable development pathways and governance failures have affected the quality and availability of water resources, compromising their capacity to generate social and economic benefits. Demand for freshwater is growing. Unless the balance between demand and finite supplies is restored, the world will face an increasingly severe global water deficit. Global water demand is largely influenced by population growth, urbanization, food and energy security policies, and macro-economic processes such as trade globalization, changing diets and increasing consumption (UN Water, 2015). Demand for water is expected to increase in all sectors of production (WWAP, 2012). By 2030, the world is projected to face a 40% global water deficit under the business-as-usual scenario (2030 WRG, 2009). By 2050, global water demand is projected to increase by 55%, mainly due to growing demands from manufacturing, thermal electricity generation and domestic use. Competing demands impose difficult allocation decisions, and limit the expansion of sectors critical to sustainable development, in particular food production and energy (UN Water, 2015). The livestock business is among the most damaging sectors to the Earth's increasingly scarce water resources, contributing among other things to water pollution, eutrophication, and the degeneration of coral reefs. The major polluting agents are animal wastes, antibiotics and hormones, chemicals from tanneries, fertilizers, and the pesticides used to spray feed crops. Widespread overgrazing disturbs water cycles, reducing replenishment of above and below ground water resources. Significant amounts of water are withdrawn for the production of feed. Livestock are estimated to be the main inland source of phosphorous and nitrogen contamination of the South China Sea, contributing to biodiversity loss in marine ecosystems (FAO, 2008). 2.5. Environmental implications e greenhouse gasses Forestry is one of the largest sources of greenhouse gas emissions created by human activity. It is a double impact effect that eliminates a biological system to process CO2 and generates new source of GHG in the form of decomposing biomass. The UN Environment Program estimates that slowing such deforestation could restore about 50 billion metric tons of CO2 , which is equivalent to a year of global emissions (Biello, 2010). Whether it is driven by the growing population through urbanization, agriculture, or live-stock, it is a major problem that is expected to slow further in the coming decades along with an increase of a plantation area which grows rapidly. Production from industrialized plantations is expected to double by 2030 from 400 million cubic meters currently to about 800 million cubic meters. Another boost is expected to come from tree growing outside of forests and plantations along roads, towns, homes, and farms thereby increasing tree services to the environment. The central challenges for the forestry sector are how to manage natural and cultivated tree resources so as to increase production, improve food security, and energy supply while safe-guarding the environmental services and biodiversity provided by forests (Harrison, 2002). The most important GHG anthropogenic source, even higher than transportation or industrial emissions, is live-stock. Livestock has not

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received the attention that the energy or transport sectors have. 2.6. Case - the threat of livestock A large input of resources is needed to produce and maintain the numbers of livestock needed to supply the demand of a thriving population. Analyzing the factors that are involved in livestock farming is complicated. To support the growing demand for livestock, a large area of land is required to be permanently designated for livestock cultivation. Currently, the amount of land needed covers one third of the total area of the available land on the planet (FAO, 2006). It is also important to notice that by providing the space and area required for livestock cultivation that deforestation occurs in order to house and provide livestock grazing areas or to harvest crops to feed the livestock. The growth of livestock production doubles the effect by generating GHG emissions, and by directly reducing the size of forests that actually break down GHG. In addition, livestock themselves demand a huge amount of feed and water just to survive, and not necessarily growing in output as meat or derived products (FAO, 2006). This generates another serious impact to the environment by draining water sources, and requiring extra land to grow crops to feed the livestock, which endangers and threatens biodiversity. Globally, livestock production is the largest user of agricultural land. On the negative side, there are environmental implications associated with the expansion of livestock production. For example, through the expansion of land for livestock development, sector growth has been a prime force in deforestation in Latin America and the Caribbean and in overgrazing in other regions. Intensive, large-scale livestock operations, mostly in the industrial countries but increasingly also in developing regions, are a major source of environmental problems through effluent production. In parallel, growth in the ruminant sector contributes to greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere through methane emissions and nitrous oxide from the waste of grazing animals (FAO, 2013). Livestock generates the largest emissions of GHG into the environment from anthropogenic sources and little action is taken to change this (FAO, 2006). All in all the demand for livestock products increases as economies change and developing countries prosper (Harrison, 2002). It can be concluded that to feed the world population current livestock farming techniques and technologies may not be enough to prevent the environmental damage that livestock produce. This thesis will focus from among the considered species of livestock, the cattle sector and its implications. Cattle are further analyzed in the following chapter of this work. The objective is to answer the following questions: 1. What are the current trends on cattle environmental management? 2. What are the technologies available and the future actions needed improve the current scenario? 3. Methodology 3.1. Qualitative research This research work will focus on qualitative research methods and will include expert input through interviewing. Synthetizing qualitative evidence has the ability to effect outcomes that are not feasible or possible in a single study (Paterson, 2012). This means that synthetizing qualitative data can reveal more powerful explanations of a phenomena leading for a greater generalizability of research findings often leading to increased levels of abstraction (Sherwood, 1999). It is also important to emphasize that a synthesis of multiple qualitative studies can also refute or revise the current

Please cite this article in press as: Gallegos Rivero, A.R., Daim, T., Technology roadmap: Cattle farming sustainability in Germany, Journal of Cleaner Production (2016), http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2016.11.176

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trends and understood concepts of certain phenomenon (Paterson, 2012). The possible outcomes of qualitative evidence synthesis may assist research works in exploring differences and similarities across settings, sample populations, researcher's disciplinary, methodological or theoretical perspectives, generate operational models, theories, or hypothesis that can be later researched (Thorne and Paterson, 1998). It also works to identify gaps and areas of ambiguity in the body of research, therefore, qualitative synthesis could reveal directions for future development and research (NHS CRD, 2001). This work will first investigate a number of primary research reports, it will organize and synthetize the data into an elaborating concept, it will involve a group of experts, and will then re-elaborate into a synthetizing concept with the data from reports and the input from experts. The involvement of a team of researchers/experts, the investigation of a number of primary reports, and to synthetize according to a concept, theory, or research objective are all attributes of a qualitative research (Yager, 2006). According to Paterson, there are several pairs of categories in which a qualitative work can be attributed to. The categories resemble opposing poles which depending on the attributes of a work define the type of the work itself. The pairs are Epistemology of idealism e Epistemology of realism; Degree of iteration: none e Degree of iteration: extensive; Outcome theoretical e Outcome utilitarian; and Interpretive e Aggregative (Paterson, 2012). Summarizing the pairs, Epistemology of idealism vs realism refers to scientists assuming whether all knowledge is constructed, or if the knowledge is an observation of the world as it is (Spencer et al., 2003). The pair related to iteration is divided where scientists using methods as meta-study, formal grounded theory, or thematic analysis, are iterative and circular in their process meaning they will revise their initial decisions with the intention to find new data or to validate the initial work (Paterson, 2012). Outcome theoretical and outcome utilitarian are diverse in the intended purpose of the thesis work by having one of an informative character and the other based on a formal grounded theory producing later a middle-ranged theory to be tested in the future (Paterson, 2012). Aggregative works treat other findings as isolated cases, and then produce a new general description of the phenomena studied (Paterson, 2012). Interpretive works extend the aggregation of findings to produce a new abstract model or theory of the phenomena studied (Gough and Elbourne, 2002). The quality of this work will be of the Aggregative method. Further description of this qualitative synthesis method states that the work should combine and amalgamate the research findings of primary sources in order to produce a summary or overall description of the phenomena under study. The concepts should be identified in advanced, and it is not defined how the context of primary research influences the findings, however all primary research sources should be basically comparable in terms of method and research question (Noblit and Hare, 1998; Estabrooks, 1994). To select a process of aggregation, this work will take the Qualitative Assessment and Review Instrument (QARI) as the base process used in meta-aggregation qualitative research. The QARI method includes developing a review question, conducting a comprehensive search, a critical appraisal of the studies selected for retrieval, the extraction of findings, and the meta-aggregation of these findings. The QARI is a web-based application developed to provide a structured process for systematically reviewing qualitative evidence and arriving at an evidence synthesis (Paterson, 2012). Although this work did not use the software application, it will mimic its development structure in order to produce a qualitative synthesis. The development of the QARI method is characterized in the following Fig. 1, this was based on a study used with the software by the Joanna Briggs Institute on 2008 and published

by Patterson in 2012: The QARI method and the software allow for transparency, and can actually allow others to trail the research and follow the development, or replicate the work (Paterson, 2012). The flow of the QARI process requires that a question be developed in which the meta-aggregation review can be scoped in order to identify the types of reviews already published. The scope of research should be large enough that the parameters or characteristics of the research can be identified. For example, Paterson refers to a healthcare study, where the parameters considered for the development of a question were the population/problem, the phenomena of interest, the context, and the outcome. After considering these elements, the question triggering the study was then formulated. Such parameters are known as PICO, and are widely used in the medical sciences research (Richardson et al., 1995). The PICO analysis for question development will be used in this work to formulate the question in the gap by the literature review. There should be a critical appraisal of the studies conducted that are chosen as part of the materials used on qualitative research. The process of selecting the studies has different perspectives (Paterson, 2012). One perspective says that criteria are regarded as guides to good practice rather than as rigid requirements in appraising papers (Spencer et al., 2003), while others argue that having strict guidelines on criteria to choose a study may stifle the interpretative and creative aspects of qualitative research (Sandelowski and Barroso, 2003). Usually a transparent approach to appraise qualitative research is well valued in qualitative research (Paterson, 2012), and it should be sensitive to the nature of qualitative research and its basis in subjectivity central to its ongoing credibility, transferability, and theoretical potential (Pearson, 2004). The selected reports, texts, and literature will be reviewed in order to extract the evidence needed for the synthesis. The goal of evidence collection is to remain as close as possible to the source material by preventing interpretation at the literature review phase of the work. Analyzing the information from sources should present coherent information that can be then categorized. It is important to examine the categories in which the information is divided as they may represent a broader scope of information with several significant ideas, concepts, or evidence. The reason behind examining the categories thoroughly is to find any obstacles that the first analysis for categorization may neglect or not present as significant at a first glimpse (Paterson, 2012). The categories in which the findings are divided must then be synthetized. The review must produce a full list of developed categories. In metaaggregation, a synthesized finding is defined as an overarching description of a group of categorized findings that allow for the generation of recommendations for practice. The synthesized statements should define possible lines of action, and generate more precise responses to a phenomenon (Paterson, 2012). 3.2. Expert input and interview method Constructing the knowledge necessary to defend the thesis will require available literature analysis and consulting experts. For this, the ideas and models generated through the literature review will be presented to a group of experts in interview form in order to gather the knowledge necessary to present solutions to the problem of the thesis. According to Bogner, an expert is someone with specialized knowledge about a topic (Bogner et al., 2014). It is also important to define the type of knowledge that is required. The knowledge types that are distinguishable are related to technical, process, and interpretation knowledge. The technical knowledge relates to data, numeric, facts, etc. This knowledge can be merely statistical, and the questions addressed to authors may lead to

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Fig. 1. QUARI method diagram.

numeric information available on printed sources. The process knowledge comes from handling processes, interactions, organizational constellations, and events that are or were related to the topic analyzed. The last knowledge type is interpretation. It contains the subjectively relevant topics, perspectives, interpretations, trends, and explanations from experts in the topic (Bogner et al., 2014). Building knowledge from interviews might have different results. If the information gathered from expert interviews is of an explorative quality, it will become an informative work. If the information can then be interpreted as process methods, facts, and statistical information, it will then qualify as appropriate for scientific research (Bogner et al., 2014). Qualitative research methods are found to be useful in social problems, decision making problems, development and study of policies, and other subjects. This type of research will not mean mathematical data collection in its core work; however it is expected to show the use of graphics, historical analysis, observation behavior, and decision-making styles as sources of data. Qualitative analysis is more focused on specific problems, and is often personal as compared to standardized statistical analysis present in quantitative research. Choosing interviews as a qualitative research method implies the use of semi-structured interviews in this work because the nature of this interview type allows for the acquisition of the desired information. There are three different types of interviews: unstructured, structured, and semi-structured. Unstructured resemble a conversation where the interviewee defines the problem and states his/her opinions. Structured interviews offer options for the answers and are specific to the topic leaving no room for further developing the subject. Semi-structured interviews have designed questions that are highly significant in defining the areas explored in the problem by the interviewee, and that allow for further questions that will enhance the information mining process (Gill et al., 2008). Unstructured interviews are carried as conversations with users and other stakeholders where a general topic and an agenda exist but no predetermined format for interview or specific question. The objective of the unstructured interview is to gather rich, in-depth data about the users or stakeholder's experiences without

imposing restrictions on what they can express. They usually provide direct experience with users and stakeholders. Interviewers enjoy more flexibility in how they word questions and probe for details than in other styles of interviews. Structured interviews are used for obtaining general information about demographics, behaviors, and relationships. They are also used to assess knowledge of a subject by determining the level of knowledge a participant has about the topic, which is good for gathering focused information about stakeholders and their attitudes towards a product. A relatively low level of training to perform the interview is needed, and data analysis is relatively easy since most questions have structure responses where data can be aggregated and compared among subgroups without difficulty. It is however a process that demands a lot of effort to create valid and reliable structured questions and responses, and therefore requires a solid background in questionnaire design. It is also important to note that interviewers become less consistent as they get tired, and they begin to anticipate or predict answers, or even use shortcuts (Wilson, 2003). Semi-structured interviews are used to gather facts, attitudes, and opinions. They are also used to gather data on topics where the interviewer is relatively certain that the relevant issues have been identified, but still provides users with the opportunity to raise new issues that are important to them through open-ended questions. They are also used to gather data when behaviors cannot be observed directly such as hazards, privacy, or other factors. Another major purpose is to gather information about tasks, task flow, work artifacts, forms, best practices documents, workflow diagrams, signs, equipment, photographs, posters, and understanding user goals (Wilson, 2003; Schuman and Presser, 1996; Dillman et al., 2009; Schensul et al., 1999).

3.3. Model: technology roadmap A technology roadmap or TRM is an approach for strategic planning integrating science/technological considerations into products and business aspects while providing a new way to identify opportunities in achieving desired objectives from the development of new technology. A TRM can add values to

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organizations by linking strategy from product plans to technology plans. It can also enable corporate/national-level technology plans, focus on longer-term planning, improve communications and ownership plans, and focus on planning with priority setting. Technology road mapping can be applied to science/research, cross-industry, industry, technology, and product-TRM's (Daim and Oliver, 2008; Fenwick et al., 2009; Daim et al., 2012a,b). Roadmaps outline links between tasks and priorities for actions in the near, medium, and long term, and include metrics to allow regular tracking of progress towards the roadmap's ultimate goals (OECD/ IEA, 2014). Using roadmaps often involves a set of roadmaps rather than a single effort. This is done to ensure that the technology is ready when the product or effects are needed, and managing in essence any technology that might be crucial on that path. The set of roadmaps, is really the combined influence of technology opportunities and market gaps, where platforms are envisioned to support different cases reflecting a gradual transition (Petrick, 2003). Technology road mapping is an iterative process that fits within the broader corporate strategy: technology and business planning. However, there are many variations of this process. What is considered essential for planning is to link three critical elements, which are customer/market needs, products/services, and technologies. Once a vision is set by a corporation or institution, strategic planning involves the decisions that identify and link at a high level the customer/market needs a company wants to address and the products and services to selecting, and investing in the technologies to support these product and service requirements. Business development involves planning for and implementing certain aspects of the strategic plan, specifically those involving the development of new products and services and/or new lines of business (Garcia and Bray, 1997). Generating a Technology Road map develops in six steps (Common wealth of Australia, 2001): Identify Needs & Benefits; Identify Industry Champion & Leaders; Identify Resource Needs and Sources; Establish Process; Develop Roadmap; Implementation. As a strategic communication channel about the future direction of key issues, a good roadmap should be kept simple. It should also include an in-depth analysis of the necessary materials available for supporting the integration of science, technology, and business aspects. A TRM should be process oriented in its approach because the value of the TRM depends on the quality and credibility of the process. It must also have a context centered presentation with detailed information on the processes of organizational involvement (Lamb et al., 2012; Amer and Daim, 2010; Katherine et al., 2014). A TRM provides a consensus view or vision of the future of the technology and science landscape available to decision makers (Kostoff and Schaller, 2001; Martin and Daim, 2012). This also aligns with models proposed by Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) on technology forecasting and the families of methods where Expert Opinion Method (EOM) includes iterative surveys, focus groups, interviews, and participatory techniques. The other methods are Trend Analysis, Monitoring and Intelligence Methods, Statistical Methods, Modeling and Simulation, Scenarios, Valuing/ Decision/Economics Methods, Descriptive and Matrices Methods, and Creativity (Firat et al., 2008). Defining the scenarios will lead to a table where the major concerns are identified along with the drivers with the major implications for each scenario (Amer et al., 2016). Once built, these scenarios will then be used in the design of the roadmap. The roadmap is developed through a diagram where the objectives are met by setting adequate targets taking into consideration the corresponding barriers and challenges for each objective based on action items that are feasible with the available resources. During the process of linking concepts, more than one element from a previous stage may converge into a single

concept in the following step. This means that concepts from the action items could be generated by a single resource type, or several targets may be set to achieve a single objective while confronted by the same barriers. This is important to analyze in order to avoid redundancies and stablish a clear visual path (Amer et al., 2016). The following Fig. 2 shows the general development of a visual set of roadmap components. The purpose of setting objectives is to identify the strategic targets of the roadmap. The people involved in the process are meant to set the objectives and to provide feedback while defining them. The objectives should be general concepts where the overall commitment of the defined targets should converge. The targets are specific and measurable, and are necessary to fulfill the more general objectives. Defining the targets requires a Barriers and Challenges analysis in order to properly find a feasible protocol to achieve them. The Barriers and Challenges of targets set in a roadmap must be prioritized on the basis on the impact to the targets set. The barriers must be identified from the literature and from the Fuzzy Cognitive Maps. Expert input can also contribute to the barrier definitions. Once the Barriers and Challenges are defined, they must be then categorized to find the field where they are presented. These categories can be policy, capacity, technique, institutional, or other type depending on the nature of the barriers and procedures set by the researcher. Ranking the Barriers and Challenges is then necessary in order to assess the impact on the targets set. Once the ranking is defined, action items are discussed in order to overcome the barriers and achieve the roadmap targets. A classification of the item actions can be made as in where the actions should take place, as in new actions, modification of previous actions, or already undertaken actions. It is also possible to assign timelines to the proposed actions. The next step is to assign responsibility for the actions to be taken, and to discuss the implications of the actions that are proposed as result of the work. The analysis should be the same for all the analyzed scenarios, and then conclusions can be made (Hansen et al., 2016; Amer et al., 2016). 3.4. Research outline The goal for this research is to generate a TRM dealing with GHG emissions from livestock in Germany. To generate this model, roadmaps will be created defining the current German and global technology scenarios that address this issue and then develop the feasibility of creating a model bonding with technology from and strategies from different countries. Once the two scenarios are defined, the final model will be generated as an action item for the future practice of sustainability in cattle cultivation. In order to define the proper problem of the thesis regarding livestock emissions in Germany and around the globe, we will follow the QARI

Fig. 2. TRM concept linking diagram.

Please cite this article in press as: Gallegos Rivero, A.R., Daim, T., Technology roadmap: Cattle farming sustainability in Germany, Journal of Cleaner Production (2016), http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2016.11.176

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methodology previously explained in this chapter. The literature review where the analysis for findings and gaps will be done will have to rely on criteria defined by the researcher for selection of the sources. This work will review literature dealing with livestock emissions coming from credible and validated scientific-based sources to claim their findings and statements. The works reviewed for this thesis will have the characteristics of a report created by official organizations such as the UN dealing with topics as population, agriculture, livestock, environment, and coherent topics. Other credible, and science-based sources will come from universities conducting scientific papers and reports dealing with livestock and emissions of GHG in Germany. Once the model questions are established for this paper, further findings necessary to fill the gaps should come from scientific sources in specialized literature, considered projects where universities are involved, or where the features of the article are proven by a methodology, or a defined business model where the information can be accessed and validated. Sources will be then validated by the supervisors of this work where their criteria are also applied to the information found in order to be considered for this work. All findings will be categorized and analyzed in order to avoid redundancies, and then will be augmented with expert input. To accomplish this, the findings will be used and organized in order to produce semi-structured interviews to be carried out with the experts chosen for this work. This should provide the most up-todate and relevant information regarding livestock emissions in the German and global scenarios. In this work, an expert, following the definitions presented previously on this work, must have qualifications and responsibilities coherent to the topics of this work. Their contribution should be validated by their line of work, and reach where their experience and knowledge takes an important view on livestock, natural resources, German agriculture, sustainability, technology, environmental issues, greenhouse emissions, and related topics. Experts should mainly work in any of those areas, and have an overall perspective about the topics. Experts considered will be government officials or deputies, as well as scholars and university professors. With the input generated from literature review and experts interviewed, fuzzy cognitive maps will be generated and integrated into their corresponding scenarios. Once the scenarios are ready in preliminary TRM's, they will be validated by the supervisors of this thesis in order to then be completed. The two scenarios considered are the German approach and the Global approach. The two TRM‘s will then be merged, and a second review will be necessary where experts will then provide their views and information in order to generate a best practice purposed TRM, which is the final goal of this thesis work. The eclectic nature of this work in the methodology will combine the QARI approach with the Technology Road mapping methodology, and use interviews in order to mine data from experts. This generates a unique outline for this work illustrated in the following Fig. 3 where the process flow of this thesis can be visualized. 4. TRM: aquaponics 4.1. Objectives & target The objectives for this technology are: Meet the demand for cattle sustainably and profitably, protect the biosphere, and GHG mitigation. The derived target is to transition from traditional agriculture for cattle feed into landless and high-water efficient production systems. Hydroponics as part of the Aquaponics concept is defined by the Merriam-Webster online dictionary as a method to grow plants in water rather than soil (MerriameWebster, 2015). According to Dr. Patel, a research scientist from India, in natural conditions, soil acts as a mineral

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nutrient reservoir but the soil itself is not essential to plant growth. When the mineral nutrients in the soil are dissolved in water, plant roots are able to absorb them. When the required mineral nutrients are introduced into a plant's water supply artificially, soil is no longer required for the plant to thrive (Patel, 2015). Land and water are crucial resources for cattle production and the over-exploitation of such resources according to the literature review of this work is detrimental to the environment risking the sustainability of cattle farming in the current approach; hydroponics may present an alternative for specialized production and a direct reduction on land and water consumption. According to the Colorado State University, the major function of a hydroponic system is to provide freely available water to the root system of a plant; this cannot be easily done in soils because excess water cuts the oxygen supply, killing the roots. As soils dry out between irrigations, plants suffer stress. With hydroponic systems, maximum amounts of water can be supplied because pore capacity is large and their water holding capacity is usually low. While 75%e 90% of the energy provided by sunlight is used to evaporate water by the plant, the more light that is available the greater the advantage for hydroponic systems, which supply water directly to the root. This system responds better in high light density and arid climatic regions (CSU, 1974). Theoretically, all necessary elements for growth can be provided in full amounts, however it is difficult in practice and it is difficult to supply a constant ratio and concentration of essential elements without a high cost technology input. Also maintaining constant ratios of acidity, tolerance to salts, light, temperature, and other factors is difficult (CSU, 1974). Countries like Israel have developed aquaponics systems for growing vegetables in a combination with farming fish to provide a nutrition cycle where the fish thrive on the oxygen created by plants while plants consume the waste of fishes. This is done with little to no use of fertilizers, low water consumption, and no waste. This technique has proven feasible and economically viable for agricultural irrigation and commercial fish production using the limited water from the desert regions (FAO, 2011). 4.2. Barriers If there is no need for land, then forestry can be reduced to produce the fodder needed to feed livestock. Cattle can receive high-quality fodder year-round since production is done in specialized facilities; however challenges emerge when considering the profitability of hydroponics. Hydroponics is focused on growing fodder or greens like alfalfa if it is intended for cattle. There have been drawbacks on the production and profitability of dairy cows fed with hydroponic feed. In India, Dr. Patel's research showed that for dairy cows producing about 7 L of milk per day, hydroponic fodder is sufficient. According to the research, this is suitable for organic farmers in low scale production (Patel, 2015). This is also supported by recent a study on hydroponic alfalfa for cattle farming. The study states that hydroponic fodder finds a place in farms focusing on self-sufficiency or without the available resources to use land for fodder production (UCANR, 2013). A study done at Iowa State University used hydroponics to feed cattle for dairy production, and determined that it is a costly method for dairy producers, however hydroponic sprouts may have a good application in organic, intensive, small-scale livestock with high value outputs or in areas with high lands or where there are different prices for feed. The study also states that research data on dairy cows is limited in definitively determining whether or not the feeding characteristics of the fodder impacts production or the health of the cows enough to be worth the investment (Tranel, 2013). Beef production has also been considered, and according to a report by Meat & Livestock Australia, supervised by the

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Fig. 3. Research outline.

Queensland Government, feeding the cattle for commercial purposes with hydroponic sprouts is not appropriate due to the high moisture content, high cost, and scale operation. The future of hydroponic fodder for cattle beef depends on the cost of nutrients and the performance supplied by sprouts compared to other feeds, and further understanding of the real cost and value of sprouts in animal production (MLA, 2003). The current technologies used in mixing fisheries with hydroponic vegetable production are already in use for commercial purposes. In Germany, the commercial use of such techniques is currently in use for human consumption in Berlin, where a small scale aquaponics farm has opened to customers. The challenges they face in terms of the expansion into a larger scale operation are mostly financial, although small scale operations are currently successful (Grosser, 2015). To produce tomatoes and cucumbers they require fertilizer, and for a large scale operation, this may require a substantial and sustainable resource (Grosser, 2015). 4.3. Actions & resources The transition from land to landless cattle feed production must supply food for the cattle population in countries like Germany where land-use is limited and there is a high demand for profitable live-stock cultivation. The link with aquaponics systems and cattle fodder is not yet established since the current projects are intended to supply urban consumers of vegetables. Expanding into larger scale operations requires a transition to larger areas outside urban landscapes, where the cost per square meter reduces as the total area increases. The technology required for automation is currently available, and managing a 10-ha farm is similar to managing a 1000 ha one (Grosser, 2015). To supply for such a large scale operation with fertilizer, there is also a link where urban waste waters can be treated to obtain struvite. Berlin's aquaponics farm water consumption is 90% less than conventional farms, and they avoid the use of pesticides by using natural processes to control pests. Any farm requires fertilizer to grow tomatoes and

cucumbers. In order to produce their own fertilizer, they collect fish waste and use a bioreactor to turn it into fertilizer (Grosser, 2015). Struvite is a crystal mineral obtained from water treatment plants. Struvite is a compound of ammonium, magnesium, and phosphorus. Struvite is a fine fertilizer containing elements that are crucial for agriculture, and it has a slow solubility. Slow solubility is advantageous to the environment if it is applied to conventional farms because it means lower concentrations of fertilizers are entering the soil. The minerals that are not absorbed by the plant are then filtered into water beds contaminating them with nitrates and other compounds. This same advantage has drawbacks for the farming industry due to the inefficiency of water solubility in conventional farming, where the absorption of fertilizer requires a highly concentrated, present. While this provides an immediate enhancement of growth, it will pollute the water beds, damage the soil health, and eventually lead to desertification of the soil making it economically unproductive. One of the experts interviewed was Dr. Joachim Gerth from Hamburg Technical University. Phosphorus obtained from the widespread implementation of projects in Germany can lead to a potential 20% reduction of phosphorus imports, which is a rare element crucial for farming industry. When asked about a possible relationship between extracting nutrients by clearing water from contaminants and landless aquaponics systems for food production, Dr. Gerth said for the interview that he sees a trend developing where cities can become self-sufficient by improvising agriculture on unexpected areas. He also sees this trend occurring in developing countries where they grow food in drums or containers. The connection between such new approaches and landless technologies can benefit well from struvite like fertilizers, which deliver good nutrients and are clean, and are well-fitted for a new agricultural economy. As of 2015, Dr. Gerth's was still working to find the best method to extract struvite from processed waters. This project requires laboratories and access to municipal water treatment plants making university scientists a resource for hydroponics. From the analysis of the barriers, it is implied that further

Please cite this article in press as: Gallegos Rivero, A.R., Daim, T., Technology roadmap: Cattle farming sustainability in Germany, Journal of Cleaner Production (2016), http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2016.11.176

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research into a depuration and perfection of hydroponic techniques is necessary for it to become economically feasible. This will require entrepreneurs willing to invest in these projects either by combining current aquaponics trends and fodder production, or by determining and controlling the most efficient solutions and compounds to produce fodder commercially. In Germany, there are companies already focusing on this scenario by providing year-long production of fodder for cattle. It will depend on the success and acceptance by farmers for this technology to be further developed. As the demand for livestock production grows, if farmers use these techniques rather than importing grains from other continents, which leads to further deforestation and resource scarcity, these issues can be reduced or eliminated. As of 2014, the European Union through the Innovative Aquaponics for Professional Application (INAPRO) and the University of Berlin is granting funds for the development of large scale aquaponics facilities. This is to promote a “greener” farming technique, but it is not focused on the urban farming trend (FVB, 2014). The government role comes from European policies, and not necessarily from German government. These facilities are focused on reducing any emissions into water beds from traditional farming. The scope of the grants is to reduce water pollution by using different techniques that may actually aid preserving ecosystems, but the scope does not refer to the soil contamination or degradation directly. The funding and support of such methods of production is selected in an entrepreneurial process where grants are awarded similarly to other small entrepreneurial grants (FVB, 2014). Germany is experimenting with aquaponics on large scale projects. However, because aquaponics is not considered economically feasible or profitable, these projects are not used in main-stream, conventional farming. This implies that aquaponics used as source for livestock fodder is not as promoted industry-wide as aquaponics for human consumption vegetables. This link between livestock and aquaponics is economically exploitable but not heavily promoted. According to the experts, German policies promote conventional farming with fertilizers and subsidies to import cattle feed from overseas. Aquaponics has reached some industrial scale exploitation, but the other technologies are still at a very early stage, and there is not widespread knowledge about them within Germany according to the experts interviewed for this paper. (See Table 1). 5. TRM: grazing management 5.1. Objectives & target The objectives under the scope of Grazing Management are: Meet Demand of Cattle sustainably and Profitably, Protect the Biosphere, Transition into Symbiotic Relationship between Cattle Farming and Regional Ecosystem, Define a Methodology and Trends for General Best Practices. The target that merges with these objectives is to integrate ecosystem restoration and grazing management into cattle farming. Holistic Grazing was first proposed by Allan Savory. According to Savory, holistic resource management is a wildlife and watershed management technique, even where there are no livestock on the land. It is also a method of managing livestock on the land whereby livestock can be used to reverse desertification process very economically with or without fencing, a method of managing livestock on ranges or on planted pastures whereby greater production can be achieved both from the land and the animals, and with greater profitability than conventionally raised livestock, and a method of making conventional range management techniques economically sound there they were economically unsound (Savory, 1983).

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According to the Holistic Grazing Management concepts, agriculture in its commercial form is producing more eroding soil than food, while also claiming that transportation and energy play an equal if not minor role than ecosystem deterioration on GHG emissions. The problem with ecosystem deterioration is that due to human intervention, the cycles of the ecosystem are already broken and by such conditions it cannot preserve its natural cycles which support life. The Holistic Grazing perspective of this is that livestock needs to be managed correctly in order to preserve these cycles and thus, preserve the ecosystems (Coughlin, 2013). Savory claims that scientifically there is no clear understanding about the causes for desertification on the planet; however he claims that micro-climate changes on small areas will eventually lead to macro-climate changes. Overgrazing an area with cattle will have an effect on the micro climate of the area, which will then contribute to other changes in the region that could lead to desertification due to soil deterioration. By observing nature, Savory maintains that the reason that large herds of mammals prevailed, such as the American bison or the African savannah wildebeests, for so long before human interaction was because their manure was naturally released all over their grazing area. Also, due to interaction with predators, they were forced to move constantly and therefore, fertilizing and not overgrazing, their pastures. On contrary, major trends in farming techniques have little movement of cattle since without predators they are free to roam the ranges and eventually overgraze the paddocks (TED, 2013). If grass is not consumed and therefore no biological decay takes place, grass turns into a woody, dead dry matter that is not consumed by animals. Since it has not decayed, it turns into an oxidizing process that takes long periods of time to decompose. This process does not allow for the natural process of decay to occur, and therefore does not allow new grass to grow during the next year or growing season. This eventually smothers and kills the grasses in the area, allowing for woodier vegetation to grow clearing soil from grass, and thereby releasing carbon into the atmosphere. The traditional approach to battle this is to burn the oxidizing grass to clear the soil for the new growing season, but this process also emits high amounts of carbon by combustion into the atmosphere, and the cleared soil also releases carbon. Following this approach, Savory claims that desertification cannot be prevented by reducing the number of grazing animals on the land or by clearing dead grasslands with fire. Therefore, the best option is for cattle and livestock to graze freely in an attempt to mimic natural herd movement and grazing cycles. By using cattle in tight groups and moving as a herd as in nature, the grass is consumed and then turned into manure while at the same time the areas are cleared for new grass to grow. It helps control carbon since there is organic matter in the soil that will then nourish the roots in the soil and retain water. This will restore health to the soil, and therefore retain carbon and break down methane. Savory claims that an Argentinian researcher applying holistic grazing methods on the Patagonian fields used sheep by gathering them into a massive herd of 25,000 animals, and in one year they increased land production by 50% (TED, 2013). Another approach is to use multispecies grazing techniques. The focus of mixing species for grazing in farming is due to the animal preferences to eat and consume different plants and grasses. Cattle, goat, and sheep form the usual mix. Cattle prefer grass over other types of plants, and are less selective when grazing than sheep or goats. Sheep and goats are more likely to eat weeds and other herbs. Sheep will prefer forb, and goats will prefer brush and shrubs. The result of the mix is that all plants will be eaten, therefore controlling weed growth and brush while yielding more pounds of gain per acre compared to single-species grazing (Correy, 2001).

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Table 1 Aquaponics TRM. Objectives Meet Demand of Cattle Sustainably and Profitably

Protect the Biosphere

GHG Mitigation

Target Transition from traditional agriculture for cattle feed into landless and high-water efficient production systems. Barriers Priority

Barrier

Source

1 2 3 4

Currently only economically suitable for low scale cattle farmers. Cattle fed on landless grown fodder are less productive than soil grown fed cattle. Not a clear effective model to produce the best quality fodder, although theoretically possible. Hydroponic fodder, fruits, and vegetables may not reach the high quality of soil production due to the absence of humus. Most effective on light intensive regions (less efficient in Germany).

Tranel, 2013 UCANR, 2013 MLA, 2003 Interview Dr. Otterpohl

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FAO, 2011

Actions Period

Short term

Mid term

Long term

Action

Aquaponics (mixture between fish framing and hydroponics) is proving to be profitable for human consumption. This approach should address cattle feed.

Aquaponics costs reduce if more area is available to work on this process. If production should move into the country side, this could potentially establish a relationship between cattle farming and aquaponics fodder.

Source Action

Grosser, 2015 Nutrient recovery from waste waters needs to optimize extraction from sediment in order to be economically feasible. This is currently being developed (2015) Interview Dr. Gerth.

Grosser, 2015

The use of fertilizers is necessary for aquaponics production. A link between waste water management and aquaponics production must be developed since efficient fertilizers and nutrients are recovered from municipal waste waters. Interview Dr. Gerth.

Short Term

Mid Term

Long Term

Researchers Entrepreneurs Universities

Government Farmers Aquaponics Suppliers

Government Farmers Entrepreneurs

Source Resources Period

Multispecies grazing may also benefit pastures that are less diverse by encouraging a more even grazing. Cattle will tend to graze taller grasses that sheep may reject, and it has also been shown that sheep graze near cattle manure deposits, which cattle avoid, which results in a more even use of pasture. Economically, this means a better resource usage and more meat production to sell. Multispecies grazing techniques also have an advantage on intoxication threats by ingesting poisonous plants. Some will affect cattle while not goat and sheep and vice versa. This is similar to parasites where the larvae of parasites from cattle will be ingested by goats and sheep, which do not host the larvae and are not affected by it. The same thing happens from goats to sheep where cattle will ingest the larvae but it will not be affected by them. However, parasites can be shared by goats and sheep, in which case may require special attention (Correy, 2001). 5.2. Barriers Allan Savory's work and the general ideas of the holistic approach on farming have been openly criticized by the scientific community. The basic claim is that there is no true correlation with the technique implementations and the improvement of soil in the area where the grazing occurs. Scientific research also has shown contradicting evidence to what it is claimed by Savory as advantages of gathering large herds. This for example is reflected by the trampling effect on soil, while Savory claims it benefits the grass growing cycle by offering a place for seeds to develop and receive water retention, scientific studies show that large herd's trampling effect compacts land avoiding water to enter the soil (Briske et al.,

2011). A study by the University of Arizona states that claims of successful holistic management by cattle farmers on the border of the United States and Mexico was due to an increase in rainfall, and not through cattle management techniques. This was also observed in African territories where after a heavy rainfall there was for a period of time improved farming output. However, both North American and African continents entered drought periods on subsequent years and did not see a true benefit from changing their cattle management to holistic approaches (Holechek et al., 1999). The same study from the University of Arizona found that shortduration grazing may facilitate an improved management of livestock, giving ranchers more control over how specific parts of their ranch are grazed than continuous grazing, therefore increasing output and yield but not necessarily improving health conditions. The study suggested that such techniques could be useful for some ranches in some areas if applied at moderate to conservative stocking rates to allow recovery from chronic grazing. The study, however, suggested further research to take place and questioned the government endorsement of holistic grazing management (Holechek et al., 1999). Further barriers into the methodology come from practical implementation. Although the projects considered for this thesis all claimed to be successful in economic revenue and ecosystem restoration, empirical data varied considerably from one farm to another. In Chihuaha, Mexico, ranchers facing bankruptcy turned to holistic grazing methodology and quickly recovered. The ranchers where supported by local authorities, they were given broader land to work with under the condition that they would attend seminars

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and training provided by the government with holistic approaches under contract. The results according to the rate of production were a success since cattle farmers reported profits in subsequent years, and increased their cattle population by restoring soil health to the grasslands of the Mexican Chihuahuense Desert. Nevertheless in the implementation of the holistic approach, they used 10 ha per animal maintaining that it was not the amount of animals that determined success rather it was the amount of time the cattle spent grazing on a paddock (Díaz, 2013). A farm in Ontario, Canada implemented the holistic approach, and used 0.65 ha per animal. They reported soil health improvement and profitability. While the area was considerably reduced, this seemed to not to have affected productivity and the farm improved its conditions. Intensive fence use is necessary when there is reduced land for cattle, and where there is a need to concentrate cattle on a paddock without allowing them to step and trample other paddocks of grass. (Slomp, 2013). This led to a planning and scheduling problem for the Ontario farm. There were also complications on water distribution for cattle since the farm reported having to build a path for cattle to access water without compromising paddocks not yet programmed for grazing. The building and rebuilding of the fence implies complications and costs since the fences are electric in order to prevent cattle from bending them or trampling over (Slomp, 2013). Similar problems are found if farmers opt for multispecies grazing techniques. Fencing is widely used since it's considered economic and convenient, however containing varied species requires a bigger input of materials and design than containing a single species. Predators are also considered a threat and although some may turn away in the presence of cattle, some others might not stop without additional support from guardians or sturdier fences. Farmers also may have problems adapting to a multispecies herd, specific needs and behaviors require different skills on different species (Correy, 2001). Optimization is also a problem when dealing with water supply for animals in multispecies farming. Cattle tend to stay close to the water sources and therefore manure spreads near water sources. Having important areas without the organic fertilizer, farmers opted for using hoses and containers with constant relocation to supply water to the herds. Rates between land and herd are not defined and depend on the empirical practice of the farmers, and also rates from species to species; while some suggest a single sheep per cattle head, others suggest two sheep per cattle, all based on the numbers that worked in their particular farms and on a trial an error perspective (Brann, 2013). Lack of scientific support has not deterred governments from supporting this approach to cattle farming, however variations from farm to farm, regions, climates, and several other factors have produce skepticism among farmers. And there is a growing trend by the scientific community driven by the deterioration of soils by the use of agrochemical production methods to reject this type of farming. These statements are supported by Dr. Otterpohl, who was interviewed for this thesis. While Dr. Gerth suggest that a barrier to overcome is the unwillingness of farmers to accept advice from non-farmers. In other parts of the world, such as Mexico, where even with government supported campaigns, farmers only showed a positive attitude to a transition when fellow farmers endorsed and showed proof of the benefits of adopting holistic approaches s, 2014). (Corte A major drawback into the transition from industrial to organic farming is the productivity decrease. Organic dairy cows produce about 7 L of milk per day while industrial dairy cows produce 30 L. Beef production of cattle for organic animals requires one year producing the same amount of meat that industrial cows produce in ninety to one hundred twenty days, thus, organic beef costs

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more. Although organic meat is healthier than industrial meat and of a higher quality, consumers are used to the taste and prices of industrial meat, placing the organic meat into a higher price category because it is not as widely consumed (Díaz, 2013). The implementation of holistic grazing methods may seem like a viable option to restore grasslands; however other ecosystems may not be protected from deforestation and transformation into grasslands if holistic grazing thrives. The Loess Plateau in China was one of the largest projects in ecosystem restoration and soil improvement ever done. The Loess Plateau was restored by an intensive management program where areas were destined only to be reforested while others were destined to agriculture. Livestock were forced into containment, and were fed in pens without access to the outer areas since this would be not be conducive to the restoration of the ecosystem, which resembles that of a forest and not of grassland (Liu, 2005). This suggests that livestock presence on recovering ecosystems may hinder the restoration and preservation of natural flora and fauna. The Loess Plateau has a forest environment, not a grassland one. Similarly, the forests of Yosemite made significant recovery where grasslands were thriving. This was due to the re-introduction of wolves into the ecosystem, which were previously absent. The presence of free-roaming deer on higher grass lands, which were previously forests, had deteriorated the soil and water bodies of the park, however by the addition of wolves, the territories of the deer narrowed to lower grasslands allowing the overgrazed higher areas to restore to their previous status increasing the population of trees and other flora species. This then led to the return of previously absent animal species ranging from eagles to bears (Agnos, 2014). This also suggests that while grazing management techniques may eventually prove sustainable for cattle farming, the threat of deforestation and transformation is still not addressed, even when the optimal ratios and schedules for cattle and grasslands are found, rising population and rising cattle demand may still compromise forests and other ecosystems. 5.3. Actions & resources From the barriers analysis the main concepts that must be addressed by future technologies and practices in cattle farming are to collect data validating the success of an economically and sustainable farming model. The significant variations between farms applying this method and the constant failure of others where success was expected may actually come from an irregular understanding of the concepts not due to the theory misinterpretation, but from the implementation phase of the management solutions. In addition, optimization is a crucial part for this management approaches for cattle. Designing the path to use, scheduling and programming grass production, and guaranteeing access to minerals and water area all limitations that can be addressed by software solutions. Software available for cattle farming concentrates on the production of the cows and not in the management of the grass production and land health. The current approach may have a concept of managing grass by assigning cattle the paddock from which they are supposed to graze, but they do not determine size of the paddock, the ratio from cow to land, the ratio between species, nor the most effective route that guarantees a total area coverage without compromising paddocks along with the distribution of water. Computer Aided Design (CAD) technologies must be considered as an option for designing the best route, paddock distribution, and fencing for holistic approaches. If the farm area is introduced into software than can then by scheduling and optimization algorithms determine the best distribution, then it can also provide the cheapest and most effective fencing patterns, where to place the

Please cite this article in press as: Gallegos Rivero, A.R., Daim, T., Technology roadmap: Cattle farming sustainability in Germany, Journal of Cleaner Production (2016), http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2016.11.176

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water sources, or the most effective path to water bodies. Current holistic grazing management sites offer worksheets to aid in planning, and in tracking the progress from the implementation of the methodology, but they are limited to tracking the empirical practice of the farmer. The farmer might experiment based on this analysis, and then may decide to stay with a model which may seem to be the most efficient when in fact it could be improved. Ways to enhance this could come by data collection from users, and then by statistical processes determining the trends and effectiveness of management models in different regions due to variations in geographical conditions. This would then show the most effective land to cattle ratios, species to species ratios, scheduling, forecasting, and several other statistics. This can show the gaps that need to be addressed through farm management and track soil restoration as cattle farming thrives optimizing resources and profit. A major barrier considered is to change the mindset of consuming and farming. While consumers often do not make a connection with the environmental implications of their consuming habits, profits will set trends and farmers will then remain trapped in the marketing strategies of agrochemical industries producing food while deteriorating the ecosystems. If farmers were to see the benefits of successfully implementing grazing management methodologies, the need for industrial fertilizers would reduce significantly. Cattle would fertilize their own fields, and soil health would improve causing a subsequent improvement of the ecosystem while generating profit for the farmer. This can be changed through education of the methods and evidence from farmer to farmer. One of the main reasons that farmers in the U.S. turned into a new approach of grazing management was the severity of their situation. On the verge of bankruptcy, they turned into a new method with the aid of the U.S. government. A similar situation happened in Mexico where government support was the main driver for farmers to turn to these grazing methodologies. For cattle farming, sustainability regulations and laws determine the national practices and regulations. Government involvement is crucial. The main resources for this approach are farmers and governments. This link has been well established in other countries. The government may provide the education and training, even land for grazing and restoration, but the farmers will definitely provide the credibility through economic success. The German situation is not as bad as the situation in other countries, and this could be a reason why the adoption and assimilation of grazing methodologies is not widespread while the existing one lacks the success that would attract interest form other farmers. Software developers and entrepreneurs addressing this opportunity to provide farmers with an optimizing tool are also necessary. For such a large data collection, tracking and further development requires a considerable amount of time where funding will be needed, but if the approach is correct and successful, revenues should be significant. It is also necessary to do this in order to tackle scientific skepticism and reassess the validity of such methods by correlating an organic management system with financial recovery and soil restoration. Opportunities rise for an eclectic technological involvement. There are projects currently assigned to other fields not necessarily related to cattle farming, but which could boost the potential impact of managing systems. Dr. Ralf Otterpohl who was interviewed for this research, refers to satellite tracking for herds, to evaluate the land conditions, and to assess the profitability the investment. Fencing could transition into acoustic methods with portable devices rather than electrical fences with technologies used for crowd control in urban demonstrations such as long range acoustic devices. An eclectic approach from diverse fields originated holistic grazing management methods; a similar approach may prove beneficial to enhance grazing management with

technology. Further research and technology involvement from universities may lead to a focus on ecosystem restoration and not just farming management. Dr. Otterpohl firmly believes that in order to achieve cattle farming sustainability we must transition from cattle farming into ecosystem management. This will require for new generation of students focusing on a symbiotic relationship between cattle and the environment rather than optimizing profits on soil deteriorating farming practices. (See Table 2). German policies come as indirect aid to the soil erosion control and sustainability in farming. This is due to the fact that policies control the emissions to water beds and fertilizer use on the soils to reduce nitrogen concentrations rather than to actually prevent erosion. Although not directly in the path of sustainability, environmental efforts are present to reduce the impact of the conventional farming. Experts also suggested that along with the Hamburg University of Technology and a few other institutions, little research has been done on the effectiveness of holistic grazing into soil restoration; however water waste management institutions promote policies for a less polluted watery usage in agriculture. The role of the German government takes a larger role in subsidizing farmers who use conventional techniques rather than on sustainable practices or alternative methods such as holistic grazing or permaculture. According to the experts, efforts come from individuals rather than government practices. In countries like Mexico or the U.S., local governments support farmers who are working on deteriorated lands, but are willing to cooperate and assimilate the techniques provided by the government officials regarding grazing management. Farmers who turn to these methods are often in financial crisis. This alternative however is not present in Germany, where grazing management has not seen major support from Government institutions. 6. TRM: capture CH 4 6.1. Objectives & target The objectives for addressing the capture of CH4 for this work are: Protect the biosphere, GHG mitigation, and define a methodology and trends for general best practices. The target of these objectives is to develop a device and/or method to control cattle emissions. Literature review of this work implies that CH4 emissions from enteric fermentation represent the major challenge of GHG emissions from cattle. This reaction takes place during the digestive process of ruminants, and can generate nearly 300 hundred liters of methane per animal per day. The emissions are so intense that the insides of barns in Germany have exploded due to methane concentrations and static electricity (BBC, 2014). Literature review also shows that this problem, specifically from cattle fermentation, has received very little attention with the aim to control it. In Argentina, research from the Insituto Nacional de Tecnología Agropecuaria (INTA) was able to capture enteric fermentation gasses from a cow's rumen and extract about 300 hundred liters of methane per day. This was done with a 2 mm in diameter needle directly inserted into the animal's rumen. The gas was then stored in a plastic bag mounted on the animal in a backpack fashion. The bag weighed nearly 500 g. The gas was then compressed and filtered with chemical processes until 95% pure methane was extracted. According to the scientists, the methane extracted from a single animal can power a refrigerator with a 100 L capacity working from two to six degrees for a full day. It can also be compressed and used to fuel a compact car for nearly 1 km with the gas produced by a single animal in one day. The project is not intended to compete with energy suppliers, but it is meant as a sustainable and renewable way to have remote farms access to energy (INTA, 2013).

Please cite this article in press as: Gallegos Rivero, A.R., Daim, T., Technology roadmap: Cattle farming sustainability in Germany, Journal of Cleaner Production (2016), http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2016.11.176

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Table 2 Grazing management TRM. Objectives Meet demand of cattle sustainably Protect the and profitably biosphere

GHG Transition into symbiotic relationship between cattle mitigation farming and regional ecosystem

Define a methodology and trends for general best practices

Target Integrate ecosystem restoration and grazing management into cattle farming. Barriers Priority

Barrier

Source

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

Transition into organic farming significantly reduces cattle output in diary and beef. Government endorsement is challenged by scientists. High discrepancy among results depending on region and farm conditions. Farmer skepticism to non-farmer advice. Fence intensive. Paddock 0ptimization challenging. Water optimization challenging. Scientific research shows correlation to rain and not to management techniques. Scientific community skepticism. No specified ratios for cattle and land proportions nor species mixing. Mixing species may be problematic for farmers. Although it could improve grasslands by cattle presence, other ecosystems are not necessarily improved and preserved by holistic grazing methodology.

Díaz, 2013 Holechek et al., 1999 Díaz, 2013, Slomp, 2013 s, 2014 Interview Dr. Gerth; Corte Slomp, 2013; Correy 2001 Slomp, 2013; Correy 2001 Brann 2013 Holechek et al., 1999 Briske et al., 2011 Correy, 2001; Brann, 2013 Correy, 2001 Liu, 2005; Agnos, 2014

Actions Period Short term

Mid term

Long term

Action Create conscience about links between Change mindset of farmers through example of successful consumers and farmers. implementations. Source Interview Dr. Otterpohl Government should take a major role into this transition, such as in the USA or Mexico. Source Interview Dr. Otterpohl Enhance farming management with CAD and monitoring technologies (satellite tracking) Interview Dr. Otterpohl

Interview Dr. Otterpohl Develop software for optimizing farming grazing area design and scheduling.

Evolve from cattle farming into ecosystem management by educating future generations of students and farmers Interview Dr. Otterpohl

Slomp, 2013; Díaz, 2013; Brann, 2013; Correy, 2001; Interview Dr. Otterpohl, Interview Dr. Gerth. Use an eclectic approach from technology to ease the needs of grazing management such as constant expensive fencing replaced by acoustic systems. Slomp, 2013; Díaz, 2013; Brann, 2013; Correy, 2001; Interview Dr. Otterpohl, Interview Dr. Gerth.

Resources Period Short term Researchers Entrepreneurs Universities Information Technologies Government Farmers

Mid term

Long term

Government Farmers Software Developers Entrepreneurs

Government Farmers Entrepreneurs Information Technologies

According to Mr. Thomas Voss, who at the time of the interview for this research was a scientific researcher at Technical University of Hamburg, the main advantage of CH4 from bioreactors is the transportability of the energy through compressing and tubing the gas. Voss worked on projects related to energy generation from biomass from waste waters and farming waste. When asked about the role of cattle in CH4 production, Voss stated that manure cannot be utilized as a main source for bio digesters and generating biogas. Voss noted that a cheap and efficient way to control CH4 emissions on industrial farms is by using bio filters. Bio filters oxidize methane, and the result of this reaction is water andCO2 . Literature review in this work states that CH4 represents a bigger threat than CO2 as a GHG. 6.2. Barriers There are no projects addressing the capture of methane from enteric fermentation other than the suggested method by the INTA of Argentina. The characteristic of this project is that it requires a

chirurgical procedure to insert the needle into the animal and then the infrastructure and equipment to collect, compress, and transport the gas. During his interview for this work, Voss claimed that the major barrier for this project is the financing to support the infrastructure that would allow the farmer to equip all of his/her cattle, and collect the gas from the animals. This is also an efficient method depending on the conditions of how it is carried out, and therefore the economic viability may not be yet feasible without further research on the topic. Industrial bio digesters are used on equipped farms, and may not control the emissions of grazing cattle outside the barn. This means that their use is limited to the confined industrial cattle, and not to the majority of animals used for beef and dairy production in developing countries and small scale organic farms. Cattle emissions can be addressed by controlling cattle feed composition according to the literature review analyzing cattle in this work However due to an increased demand for cattle products, and the trend to maximize output of industrial cattle for dairy or beef, it is unlikely that there will be a change in the animal feed favoring emissions at cost of the production output.

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A.R. Gallegos Rivero, T. Daim / Journal of Cleaner Production xxx (2016) 1e17 Table 3 Capture CH 4 TRM. Objectives Define a methodology and trends for general best practices

Protect the biosphere

GHG mitigation

Target Develop a device/method to control enteric fermentation emissions. Barriers Priority

Barrier

Source

1 2 3 4 5

13 million cows in Germany 90% of cattle population pastures in open farmland. No current project addressing free roaming cattle other than INTA CH4 collection Chirurgical procedure Rising demand for cattle represents a higher productivity per animal increasing emissions, or to meet demand cattle may increase population if not productivity per animal. Current bio-filters only operate on closed barns.

German Livestock, 2015 FAO, 2013 INTA, 2013 INTA, 2013 Jesko et al., 2008

6

Interview Mr. Voss

Actions Period

Short term

Mid term

Long term

Action

Authorities must address this CH4 source.

A bio filter model can replace gas collection device, and oxidize methane without harming or endangering the animal.

Appun, 2015

A cost efficient and practical method to collect methane from livestock should be developed parting from Argentinian model. INTA, 2013

Short term

Mid term

Long term

Government

Entrepreneurs Farmers Researchers

Government Farmers Entrepreneurs

Resources Period

6.3. Actions & resources There is no device/method to control emissions from enteric fermentation on cattle, and bio filters are meant for industrialized cattle farming. Following the concept of extracting the gas directly from the rumen of the animal, a bio filter could be designed to oxidize methane directly from the animal without risking the animal's health. According to the INTA scientists, animals with the extraction system do not suffer and have life spans no different to those animals without the device. Following the path of the INTA method by capturing ruminants' methane could also provide an alternative for developing countries where the major source of energy comes from forestry in rural areas. It is necessary to address this GHG source since the emissions of cattle tends to rise along with productivity, and global trends show an increase in the demand for cattle products. In the near future a method to address this should be developed. A study is needed to assess the viability of economic benefit from capturing methane emissions. This should come from scientists involved in the project or entrepreneurs and farmers trying to reduce their energy costs through using cattle. This is something that could have significant potential since cattle in Germany alone has risen to nearly thirteen million animals. Following the statements from INTA, this amount of animals supplies the energy for thirteen million appliances daily, such as 100 L refrigerators. Developing a portable bio-filter should be carried out by scientists with the guarantee that it would have no ill effects on the animals. The implementation of this method as a requirement for cattle cultivation should come from the regulations established to control emissions by regulating authorities. A major drawback is the financing of such a large scale project, but it could considerably reduce the impact of cattle emissions into the environment. In Germany, methane emission control from free ranging cattle has not been addressed. However, the approach is regulated from a policy perspective on closed or landless cattle farming where bio

filters are used to oxidize methane and reduce it to carbon dioxide. Government influence is based on the industrial aspects of livestock farming; this means that methane control is not applied due to environmental policies, but due to safety policies because of the volatility of the gas when confined and exposed to static electricity. According to the experts, efforts to control methane on open fields are non-existent in the country. (See Table 3). 7. Conclusions and future work Germany is not on the cutting edge of cattle farming sustainability. According to Dr. Otterpohl, there is a considerable similarity with the American scenario; however the current situation is not as urgent as the one in the U.S. Therefore, German farmers are not motivated to try different farming techniques other than those involving the agrochemical industries. Some farmers involved with holistic approaches in Germany may not be as successful as commercial farmers, and cannot demonstrate the feasibility and profitability of transitioning to more organic farming methods. It is also important to note that German regulations play an important role in the decisions and methods of farmers. For example, per Mr. Voss and Dr. Otterpohl, biomass energy is not a good energy source. This is where government participation plays a major role. In many countries, the transition into organic farming has relied heavily on the relationship between the government and the farmers, whereas in Germany, authorities have not yet considered a sustainable approach to cattle farming, and still do not regulate the impact on the biosphere by German cattle farming. On another level, the sense of sustainability, self-sufficiency, and eventual financial breakdown of farmers, can push the movement from heavy agrochemical farming into holistic approaches. Both Dr. Gerth and Dr. Otterpohl support the idea of a successful holistic approach for German famers, where the German scenario will eventually mimic those of the Netherlands or Israel where landless agriculture plays a very important role. A very strong reason to

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Fig. 4. Prioritization framework.

believe that such technologies will play a major role in the near future is that the demand for cattle products is so high that farmers will look for cheap and fast solutions for their feed needs. The fact that Germany has such a low amount of arable land still available, and that cattle already takes a huge share from the currently available land, will also boost the adoption of other methods to generate fodder. Landless methods of agriculture will never replace traditional methods for producing fodder or feed grains; however they can help to sustain the transition from industrial farming into organic one by supplying in a more water in a more efficient way. The food supply of Germany may feel a boost in urban production by not relying entirely on rural production, thereby reducing the rate of deforestation and land transformation until a proper balance in farming and biosphere preservation is reached. Methane emissions represent one of the most risky threats from livestock cultivation, and capturing methane from animals has not been fully engaged by sustainable approaches. However, the impact from nitrates in water and atmosphere may be considerably reduced if soil health is sustained and restored. Natural cycles would be preserved and we could finally start gaining ground in the battle for sustainability. A better understanding of technology is always necessary, however, in this case, although technology is quickly progressing and evolving it may be more important to enhance nature-imitating processes with already available tools and technology than replacing them by isolating the phases of the current ways of livestock production. A future study can prioritize available technologies to optimize the resources available. Such applications can be found among technology assessment methods as outlined by Tran and Daim (2008). One such approach is the hierarchical decision modeling, which is a version of the analytical hierarchical process. This process is applied heavily in areas related to sustainability and cleaner production: wind power (Daim et al., 2014); energy efficiency (Iskin and Daim, 2016; van Blommestein and Daim, 2013); data center site selection (Daim et al., 2013); energy storage (Daim T et al., 2012a,b); energy alternatives (Amer and Daim, 2011; Wang et al., 2010; Daim and Cowan, 2010); powertrain technologies (Daim et al., 2011). A sample framework is provided in Fig. 4.

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Please cite this article in press as: Gallegos Rivero, A.R., Daim, T., Technology roadmap: Cattle farming sustainability in Germany, Journal of Cleaner Production (2016), http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2016.11.176