Telecommunications and travel relationships: a review

Transpn. Res.-A Vol. 20A, No. 3. pp. 223-238. 1986 Printed in Great Britain.

0191-2607/86 $3.00+ .00 ~ 1986 Pergamon Journals Ltd.

TELECOMMUNICATIONS AND TRAVEL RELATIONSHIPS: A REVIEW ILAN SALOMON Institute for Urban and Regional Studies, The Hebrew University, Jerusalem, Israel (Received 15 October 1984; in revised form 12 June 1985)

Abstract--A large body of research on the interactions of telecommunications and transportation has emerged in recent years, an outcome of the pace of development in electronics technology. Three types of interactions are noted: substitution, complementarity and enhancement, by order of their popularity. The paper reviews the knowledge on the relationships between the two systems through the analysis of applications of telecommunications technology for remote work, teleconferencing, teleservices, mobile communications and electronic mail transfer. It points to the importance of assessing future modifications of travel rather than focusing on the promises of substitution. The review also assesses the methods applied in this area and suggests further research, in view of some conceptual and practical issues.

I. I N T R O D U C T I O N

Much of the travel observed today is for the purpose of conveying information. People and organizations that interact with others, located at different geographical points, either travel to a point where they can interact, or use technological means allowing them to transfer information. The transportation profession has in the past focused only on physical movement. Dramatic developments in telecommunications technology, since the bonfires and smoke signals, facilitate the transmission of large quantities of information rapidly and at costs that unlike transportation, only slowly increase with distance. Further, the qualities of the information transmitted by current technologies are similar in some attributes to those conveyed in face-to-face communications. These developments have inspired a growing interest in telecommunications and transportation interactions, as both are subsystems or modes of a communications system. The objective of this paper is to review and assess the current knowledge on the interactions between telecommunications and transportation and to propose a research agenda. Many of the titles in this area (over 30 in the last decade) refer to the "substitution" or "trade-off" of transportation by telecommunications. That effect, which is often viewed as most desired by transportation planners, is only one type of possible interaction, and may not be the most important one. This review limits the discussion to interactions in the sense of mutual effects on the relative use of the two technologies. Other interactions, such as the similarities in research methodologies noted by Wigan (1984), will not be discussed. Also, the review focuses on the possible impacts on the demand for travel in a qualitative sense. It addresses mainly questions related to ground transportation in developed countries. Few of the interactions are simple in the sense that a telecommunications technology has a direct, well-defined impact on the transport system. In most cases, relationships are complex, as they involve modifications of behavior of individuals and organizations, with broad im-

plications on life-styles. It is possible though, to distinguish between direct impacts resulting from a change in the relative use of the two technologies and indirect or "staggered" impacts resulting from shifts in the "activity system" (Manheim, 1979), and land-use patterns, which in turn will affect the transportation system in the longer run.

The following section of this introduction provides a brief review of the technology. Section 2 discusses telecommunications-transportation interactions in a conceptual framework. In Section 3 the existing and forthcoming applications of telecommunications that may affect the transportation system are reviewed and assessed, based on research done over the last decade and in view of the research approaches identified in Section 2. Section 4 contains some concluding remarks, along with suggestions for future research. 1.2. The technology Telecommunications technologies include a variety of components that permit the transmission of information over space. For the current paper we limit the discussion to those facilities that operate by electronic means, starting with the telephone, but also focus on more sophisticated systems. Only the basic concepts of the technology will be noted here and the reader is advised to consult basic texts such as Martin (1978) and (1981), and IEEE Transactions on Communications for further information on the technology. Basically, telecommunication requires three physical elements: terminal equipment, links and switching systems. Terminal equipment are devices such as a telephone, a computer terminal, a radio transreceiver, a teletype, a screen, a computer or any other device designed to transduce electronic signals to other modes of information (audio or visual) and vice versa. Links are the packeting and scrambling elements that connect the terminal equipment. These range from the copper wire pairs used for telephone connections in the past to fiber

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optic cables and microwave. The latter types provide a bandwidth that permits the transmission of huge quantities of information in very short durations. The third element is a switching system, which facilitates the utilization of a network of links simultaneously by multiple users. All three elements have undergone significant developments over the last decade, facilitating the development of many new applications of information transfer. The speed of transmission provides the option of performing real-time transactions from different locations. The quantities and qualities of information that can be transmitted allow transactions that involve sensitive information to be performed. Different combinations of the three basic elements provide the hardware for the following applications, which are discussed in the review: (a) Man-machine interaction from remote terminals to central computers or robotics operations, allowing information retrieval, processing, storage and dissemination. (b) Man-man interaction for teleconferencing, through either narrow- or wide-band channels, permitting audio only, freeze-frame video or, full motion video transmission, depending on the bandwidth and the terminal equipment used. (c) Machine-machine interaction for transmission of data between computers, to be used by their respective endusers and robotics. The links used for these applications vary from conventional telephone lines, which are widely available, but provide a low level of service in terms of capacity and speed, to wide-band physical or "wireless" links, which are not yet widely available but do provide a high level of service. Economic analyses of telecommunications must assess the cost effectiveness of infrastructure investments and quality of service provided. Of the broad categories noted before, the following applications are reviewed in this paper: • • • • •

Remote work, Teleconferencing, Teleservices, Mobile communications, Electronic Message Transfer (EMT).

These were chosen because they seem to have attracted most interest with regard to their effects on travel patterns.

2. THE THEORETICALCONTEXT Telecommunication is yet another element in the human quest for friction-reducing technologies. Its current pace of development, combined with the growing importance of information as a resource, are li~ely to have very broad implications on society, acting on individuals as well as on social, political and economic systems.

They must be evaluated in terms of their potential effects on society and in the context of alternative technologies. Some of the conceptual issues involved in the evaluation of new telecommunications technology are discussed in Section 2. I. The role of friction-reducing technologies and human mobility are briefly discussed in Section 2.2. Section 2.3 presents a typology of interactions between telecommunicationsand transportation that have been suggested to date. The divergence of the possible effects is, it is suspected, partly a result of the very different approaches that have been employed to assess the relationships between the two technologies. Therefore, in Section 2.4 the major methodologies employed in past research are reviewed, followed, in Section 2.5, by a review of the current research directions.

2.1. Telecommunications in the context of technological developments Technological developments have filled the lives of people of Western and other societies with increasing numbers of means, primarily intended to improve the well-being of their members. Despite this proclaimed objective, doubts about the value of technological progress have attracted the growing interest of philosophers and social scientists, who address the boarder, nontechnical aspects of technology's impact on society. These belong to two general schools of thought. One group supports technological pro~ess as a positive element of Western culture. Technology improves the well-being of society and its members by increasing knowledge, efficient exploitation of resources and freedom of choice. This view is presented by Gabor (1970), Prehoda (1967) and in a different perspective, leading to a similar conclusion by Kahn (1976) and Toffler (1981). Although not ignoring forthcoming problems, this approach stresses the potential benefits. Parker (1973) suggests that underlying the view that the inevitable technological development is positive, is the belief that any negative effect, which sometimes cannot be overlooked even by the zealots of technology, can be "fixed" by yet another technological development. Telecommunications technologies, under this technocratic approach, will result in greater and faster technological sharing, an improved allocation of resources, more and better information at the individual's disposal and consequently, greater freedom of choice. This approach, it is suspected, is strongly supported by vested interests, who have attempted to capitalize on investments made for the defence and space industries over the last three decades. Weil 0982) argues that the trend towards an information age has risen because of the information industry. A very different view, the humanistic one, is held by those who point at the negative impacts of technological developments as being greater or as important as the positive impacts. Among these are Ellul (1967), Mum ford (1964) and Taylor (1973), who question not the inevitable development, but the price society has to pay for its use. A radical view is presented by Taylor, who suggests that "to restore community and cure anomia, we should have to reduce the rate of social and techno-

Telecommunications and travel relationships logical development, reduce the mobility of the individual and perhaps even discourage communications" (1973, p. 129). The critical view of information technology stresses the lack of privacy, the impersonal nature of human interaction, the robotic behavior expected of individuals and the geographical immobility of individuals as major negative or unrealistic effects of telecommunications at the individual level. On a societal level, such effects as alienation, centralized decision-making and "Big Brothers' " syndromes are cited (e.g. Dupuy, 1980). Also, disruption of social structures has been identified as a result of the introduction of new technologies (e.g. Winner, 1977). The arguments raised by each approach are of two types. One pertains to values: Is knowing necessarily good? Is greater mobility or access to information necessarily good? The second type relates to a problem of measurement: comparing the present values of expected social benefits and costs associated with the introduction of new technologies. The debate on values extends beyond the scope of the present review, but it should be borne in the minds of researchers and decision-makers. The measurement problem is addressed in this review. 2.2. Technology and human mobility The quest for friction-reducing technologies is addressed at two levels. First, in the general context of development, technology has yet to find a way of providing mobility in an efficient and equitable manner for members of society. The automobile, although praised for being the most popular means for increasing human mobility in Western society, incurs high social costs. Energy consumption and its ,x~litical consequences, pollution and its adverse health effects, congestion and safety costs are the major examples. Transportation policymakers, since the 1970s, are facing choices in which the provision of greater mobility is no longer the dominant factor (Altshuler, 1977). Telecommunications technology, by contrast, is suggested to have the potential of affecting travel behavior in a way that may ameliorate some of the known ills of current transportation patterns. Telecommunications, it seems, do not entail the negative externalities associated with travel. Substituting trips by telecommunications can reduce congestion, save energy, reduce pollution and save lives. Also, the incidence of benefits and costs might be distributed more equitably between society and individuals, making the prospects of this technology more favorable. The second, more profound issue is that of mobility itself. An underlying assumption of trip-generation models is that there is a need to perform an activity at a distant location. Three general categories of trip-generating activities are, by order of increasing elasticities with respect to costs: subsistence, maintenance and leisure (Reichman, 1977). A functional approach to explain trip-making behavior would suggest, in the extreme, that if all needs are satisfied at one location by the application of telecommunications, for example, then the demafid for travel may be eliminated. Given that time is a scarce resource and has an eco-

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nomic value, one may understand the long human quest for travel technologies (reviewed by Hagerstrand, 1984), as a desire to adopt time-saving technologies, similar in this sense to household appliances that satisfy that function (Nichols and Fox, 1983). The time saved may be used in either of two ways. It may be devoted to activities pursued by an individual, thus improving his or her wellbeing, as more of a desired good is available for a reduced (travel) cost. Alternatively, Wigan (1984) notes that an individual may increase the range of travel, thereby leaving time for frequent additional activities. In this case a constant travel-time budget is maintained, but additional services are acquired. The difference between the two strategies lies in their societal impact. The first is beneficial, as it reduces travel while not impinging on the individual's well-being. The second does not reduce total travel, although it does improve personal welfare. A relaxation of the assumption that there is a need to travel is not addressed by trip-generation models. Needs, it seems, are treated primarily as tangible ends, such as the generation of income, or shopping and maintenance activities. Clearly, leisure trips are not created by the same type of needs as the former two activities. Hence, higher elasticity of demand with regard to costs is evident. The motivation for recreational travel is analyzed mostly in the context of vacation travel (Pearce, i 981; lso-Ahola, 1983) and not daily travel. Mobility, as suggested by some researchers, serves a number of roles that extend beyond the satisfaction of tangible needs. Houseman (1979) looks at mobility as a right, thus raising it from a functional entity to the level of a value. Reichman (1977 and 1983) stresses that in addition to the right to move, mobility satisfies needs for security, affection and esteem. He also notes that despite the overall positive attitudes towards mobility, only partial correlation between attitudes and revealed behavior is evident. Salomon (1985) hypothesizes, based on psychological arguments, that travel may be motivated by boredom and exploratory behavior. Trip-making behavior is tied, according to these studies, to motivations that cannot be fully explained by needs that can be satisfied at defined trip ends. Therefore, technologies intended to reduce the time devoted for travel may result in the generation of new trips, manifesting previous latent demand.

2.3. A typology of interactions Three basic type of interactions between transportation and telecommunications are suggested in most of the literature reviewed. However, a clarification of the terminology leads to a classification of only two basic types. A single alternative classification is also noted. The first and most popular hypothesized interaction is that of substitution. It assumes that as the availability of telecommunication technologies expands to allow more applications at reduced costs, the need for travel will diminish as telecommunications will be used instead. Lee and Meyburg (1981), define substitution as a trip that is totally eliminated, in contrast to trips that are altered. Under this hypothesis, the total amount of interactions (travel and communications) will not be affected by the

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assignment of traffic to either mode. The realization of this hypothesis is obviously attractive to transport planners, but "it is more quoted than tested" (Miller, 1980). The second type of relationship is that of complementarity. This refers to two distinct interactions. The first is that of enhancement. This interaction, often overlooked in the literature, refers to situations in which additional telecommunications generate additional travel between two nodes, which would not occur had there not been a communications channel. This type may evolve for both social and business interactions. The second, less consistent with the economic concept of complementarity is, according to Meyburg (1983), any situation where one service is contributing to the efficiency of the other. Greater efficiency of transportation systems in terms of necessary capital, operating costs, energy and pollution costs, safety and other effects can be achieved through the employment of telecommunications. Only a small part of the improvement is attributed to elimination of travel. This type of effect is also attractive to transport planners, although its magnitude may be underestimated in the literature published to date when compared to substitution. Figure 1 illustrates the relationship between substitution and enhancement. Assuming an exponential growth in the total amount of communications, if there were no interaction between transport and telecommunications, the share Of transport would remain constant. In the case of substitution, the growth in the use of transport would fall in the shaded area under the "no interaction" line. Conversely, enhancement of travel would fall in the shaded area above the " n o interaction" line. The substitution hypothesis is based on the premise that a technological change in telecommunications improves its competitiveness with transport. This premise neglects two issues. First, some of the developments in microelectronics are also being used in the automobile industry, so that the car is also undergoing a technological change. Second, it fails to identify the complementary role of the two modes of communications, namely, the

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increase in demand for transport resulting from the enhanced use of telecommunications. A different way of illustrating these relationships is presented, following Sviden (1983), in Fig. 2. Although neither complete substitution nor complete enhancement are likely, the question narrows to the identification of factors that "shape" the synergy interactions. Gassend (1982), employing a systems approach to the analysis of transportation and telecommunications, identifies three types of interactions. Type 1 are first order interactions, namely the effects of changes in the service of either mode on the relative use of both modes. Substitution and enhancement fall in this category. Type 11 interactions occur through changes in one system that affect the other. The latter type of complementarity cited previously is of this type. Higher order interactions (Type III) are societal changes induced by innovations in either transportation or telecommunications or both. Land-use changes are an example of this type. This typology is analogous to Manheim's (1979) identification of three types of relationships between the flows, the transport system and the activity system. First-order interactions are cited in most studies and consequently occupy most of this review. Second-order interactions are discussed in the context of mobile communication. This review does not address higher-order interactions. 2.4. Research approaches As very little empirical evidence is available on the application of sophisticated telecommunications technologies and their effects on transportation, forecasting must rely on alternative routes of research. Despite the infancy of the technology, it is possible to identify some "early birds" who already employ the technology, some in embryonic forms, and mostly in experimental stages. These provide some opportunities for empirical research. Some empirical studies dealing with the telephone's impact on travel are instrumental

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(Miller, 1980, 1982; and Clark and Unwin, 1981). Experiments conducted by business firms as part of their efforts to improve their efficiency are also useful contributions to this area. In the area of remote work, for example, a number of experiments conducted by firms (e.g. CDC, Continental Illinois National Bank and others), are monitored so as to allow evaluation. Research of this category includes Olson (1981, 1982) and Manning (1981) in the area of remote work, and studies reviewed by Gold (1980), on applications of teleconferencing. The major drawback of this approach is the possible Hawthorne effect, that is, the influence of the experiment on human behavior. Consequently, results must be qualified before they can be applied to nonexperimental environments. Attitudinal surveys are another form of empirical research often used to assess reactions to yet nonexistent situations. Their limited capacity for forecasting stems from the fact that values and attitudes, and consequently revealed behavior, change over time; yet, their value lies in the ability to inform us about decision processes of consumers and about present preferences. Cautious use of this information can assist in forecasting future behavior. Research of this type in the area of transportationtelecommunications includes Gold (I 980), and Cordwell and Stinson (1979, cited by Kraemer, 1982), who examined attitudes toward intercity travel in view of teleconferencing options. Nilles, Carlson, Gray and Hanneman, (1976), and Salomon and Salomon (1984), surveyed attitudes toward remote work options. Initial applications of discrete choice modeling, analyzing the demand for teleshopping vs. store-shopping, are presented by Manski and Salomon (1985), (for other than telephone applications, McFadden, Train and Sen, 1980), although suggested, have not been published yet. Another common route is that of technology assessment~ which is often part of a process of developing new technologies in which the impacts of a new technology are forecast. A technology assessment will, in most cases, assume some scenarios within which the impacts are eval-

227 uated. The evaluation focuses on the interactions of the technology under study with other technologies and with social and economic aspects of its use. The assessment is intended to support decisions of producers or governments, particularly with respect to product design, investment policies and intervention. The most elaborate technology assessment of transportation and telecommunications interactions was performed by SRI (1977). The main drawback of the conventional technology assessment is that it assumes a scenario in which the technology is available and it usually does not address the question of the likelihood of that scenario to materialize. In most cases technology assessments fail to address the market analysis of the technology and depart from the point where the technology has been adopted to a presumed extent. This limitation is addressed, on methodological grounds by Pool (1983) and, indirectly, on substantive grounds by Brooker-Gross (1980). Parker (1973, 1976) argues that technology assessments fail in many cases because they do not deal with the social and institutional aspects involved in the adoption of a new technology. This may lead to an unrealistic forecast as the demand for and costs of alternative technologies are not taken into account. An interesting variant of this approach is the "'retrospective technology assessment." This approach was employed by Pool (1983) in analyzing 186 forecasts made about the telephone between 1876 and 1940. In this way one can judge what made some forecasts successful and others failures in the context of telecommunications, so as to caution present and future technology assessments. A third approach assesses the issues involved in adopting telecommunications technologies in view of known relevant theories. The limitations of this approach are also evident, as the context upon which the theories were developed may be rather different and deductions may not be valid. Yet, it seems that a theoretical consideration has its value when other approaches are very limited too. For example, the large body of literature on "quality of working life," although not tested in the context of remote work arrangements, is certainly valuable in considering the impacts of the new work arrangement (see, for example, Buchanan and Boddy, 1982; Williams, 1983; Shamir and Salomon, 1985). A combination of empirical and theoretical approaches may emerge as a product of applying systems analysis to this area, as suggested by Bates (1978) and applied, on a qualitative level, by Gassend (1982). The evident divergence of methods, combined with the infancy of the subject matter, lead to a situation in which many broad generalizations are suggested but very few hypotheses are actually tested. 2.5. Previous research directions A brief review of the major areas of research that have made contributions to the understanding of the subject at hand, shows that generally, issues are too often addressed through the narrow perspective of traditional disciplines, paying little attention to the complexity of the phenomenon. The student of the interactions between telecommunications and transportation should consult a wide body of literature or titles, as the subject appears in the profes-

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sional literature of numerous disciplines, as well as interdisciplinary publications. Table 1 illustrates the areas of research reviewed. By contrast to the disciplinary lines followed in this section. the table cites sample studies along issues covered. It hints at the broad areas that still are not covered by the research reviewed for this paper. The transportation profession to date has not contributed much attention to this area, but scattered material can be found in the professional literature and it indicates a growing interest (e.g. Memmott, 1963; Harkness, 1973; Pool, 1979; Meyburg. 1983; Wigan, 1983a, 1983b, 1984; Sviden, 1983; Salomon, 1984, 1985; and Moore and Jovanis, 1984). Studies in geography deal with the impacts of frictionreducing technologies on the environment and its use. Included in this group are studies that deal with land-use patterns and telecommunications and, in particular, the future of the city (e.g. Meier, 1962; Gottmann, 1977, 1983; Abler, Jannelle, Philbrick, and Sommer, 1975; Beaumont and Keyes, 1982; Brooker-Gross, 1980; Webber, 1973, 1981; Castells, 1984; Coates, 1982; Kellerman, 1984; and Moss, 1985). These can be typified as qualitative assessments by scholars of urban and regional studies. A few studies that employ a more analytical approach include items that address specific relationships between travel and telecommunications (e.g. Clark and Unwin, 1981; Miller, 1982). A broad area of research, particularly from the United Kingdom, deals with office location and often addresses specifically the telecommunications factor. As information is the raw material of this industry, telecommunications technology can serve both as an explanation as well as an intervening agent in the pattern of office location (Goddard, 1973, 1975; Goddard and Morris, 1976; Daniels, 1979, 1981; Daniels and Holly, 1983; Pye, 1977; and Alexander, 1979). Locational patterns of high-technology and research and development industries, also highly dependent on information, can also be affected by telecommunications technologies, as indicated by Malecki, 1983; Baal-Shem, 1979; Salomon and Razin, 1983. A third major source is the contribution of communications and computer professionals who deal primarily with the technological aspects of telecommunications. As a generalization, it tends to advocate the potential benefits that can be accrued to the transportation system. Stated differently, this research tends to take the view that the availability of the technology is enough of an impetus for its adoption. (e.g. Polishuk, 1975; Martin, 1978, 1981; Pye, Tyler and Cartwright, 1974). Some of the research in this area, written by behavioral scientists trained as psychologists, political scientists, sociologists and others who are engaged in communications research does in fact identify the complexity of travel behavior as the underlying basis for transportation (e.g. Pool, 1979; Bolton, 1983; Albertson, 1977; Conrath and Thompson, 1973; Parker, 1976; and Nilles et al., 1976). Important contributions to the trade-off question appeared- in the communications literature in a comprehensive review by Kraemer (1982) and a book review by Elton (1979).

Thc managcment litcraturcshcds lighton thc viability of structural changes in organizations implied by the adoption of telecommunications for remote work, teleconfcrencing, tclcscrviccs and othcrs (c.g. Champinc, 1978; Henizc, 1981; Zuboff. 1982; Roscnbcrg and Hircshman. 1980; Shamir and Salomon, 1985; and OIson, 1983). Some attempts to present themes that integrate theories, methodologies and substance from different disciplines have been published in recent years in interdisciplinary publications (e.g. Goddard, 1980; Collins, 1980; Mandeville, 1983). One of the problems of this type of work is the need to accommodate a wide audience. This often results in articles that are more descriptive than analytical and thus, may not be exposed to sufficient criticism. Another source is the futuristic, science fiction literature, so often cited in this context (e.g. Toffler, 1981; Clark, 1977). The economics of information and telecommunications are discussed in numerous studies (e.g. Taylor, 1980; Masuda, 1975; Parker, 1976; Parker, 1982; Wigan; 1983b), but, only a few address the subject of this review. There are some similarities in the economic structure of the transport and telecommunications systems. For example, in most countries, the networks of both are public, whereas the vehicles or the terminal equipment are private, implying similar decision-making processes by both users and governments. The popular substitution hypothesis is based on the premise that telecommunications costs per unit of information transmitted are decreasing and hence the use of telecommunications becomes more economical. But, notice should be made to the fact that costs of telecommunications, although less sensitive to distance, are more sensitive to interaction time (Nilles etal., 1976), so that total communication costs may not necessarily decrease. Also, it seems that cost side studies attracted more interest than that paid to the benefits associated with the value of information, which implicity is assumed to be high. Bates (1978) suggests that cost-benefit analysis rather than cost effectiveness should guide decisions on the use of telecommunications and transport. A different aspect, raised by Wigan (1983a) is that a change in the relative contribution of each system to the general revenues is evident, and that it is likely to affect policies such as pricing, usage and investments. Generally, it seems that the economics of the interactions have not yet received the attention they deserve.

3. APPLICATIONS OF TELECOMMUNICATIONSTECHNOLOGIES Five broad categories of applications of telecommunications that may affect the transport system are reviewed. These are: remote work, teleconferencing, teleservices, mobile communications and electronic message transfer (EMT). These were chosen in view of their publicized potential impact, based on the available literature. Each will be described briefly in the following sections, and its potential interactions with transportation assessed. Ap-

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3.1. Remote work

The journey to work is the single most regular pattern of trips in urban areas. In the United States it has constituted 30.4% of the total motor vehicle-miles-travelled in 1977 (MVMA, 1981). The option of eliminating the journey to work or altering its temporal or spatial patterns have interested transportation planners as a remedy for congestion and other social costs associated with the peaking phenomenon. Telecommunicationstechnologies facilitate changes in the spatial organization of workplaces. A large number of white-collar tasks, such as data entry and retrieval, analysis, design and management can be performed from remote locations via telecommunication. This provides an opportunity to move workplaces to more desired locations. There are different interests involved in the desire to relocate workplaces. An employer may be interested in reducing land costs for workspace and parking by moving to the city's periphery or by encouraging employees to work at their homes (SRI, 1977). Moving to peripheral locations may also provide an opportunity to enjoy benefits provided by governments' decentralization programs (Daniels, 1981; Salomon and Razin, 1983). Employers using remote work options may draw upon larger labor markets, including people who otherwise remain outside the labor force because of physical or social mobility constraints (Gordon, 1976; Moss, 1984). Employees, on the other hand, may be interested in reducing the journey to work from remote suburban locations, or add a "flexiplace" (Schiff, 1981) dimension to the known flexitime option. Alternatively, employees may wish to relocate their residences to rural settings, while still pursuing urban white-collar occupations (Pratt, 1984). Wide-scale adoption of remote work arrangements can also be in the interest of society. It can bring about savings in energy consumption, pollution and time spent in travel (SRI, 1977; Oberman, 1981). Further, it may provide options for employing population groups that have mobility limitations. Three levels of decentralization of work places, schematically shown in Fig. 3, have been suggested in this context by Nilles et al. (1976). Workplaces may be fragmented into a number of "satellite" plants, with each either having some specialized functions, (e.g. R & D facilities, production sites or headquarters), or alternatively, each being a reduced version of the central workplace (e.g. bank branches). The travel effects of the former may not be positive, as workers will continue to have long commutes, often even more costly relative to the previous central location where they could rely on public transportation. The latter option has the potential of reducing total trip length if workers can choose to work in a plant close to their residence. The satellite concept was studied in the framework of office relocation although it was not labeled so (Goddard and Morris,'1976). A second level of dispersion is that of neighborhood work centers. These are units owned by one or more

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Fig. 3. Stages in dispersionof an organization. companies that are connected to remote computers. They provide the necessary on-site services (photocopying machines, documentation, etc.) so that people residing in the neighborhood can work.This option reduces the journey to work to distances that may be suitable for nonmotorized modes, or if motorized modes are used, they will not occupy major arteries. The third level, according to Nilles et al., is the diffusion of work places into individuals' homes. Some people, mostly artists, writers and academics, have been working at home for many years, and some are using telecommunications. However, to become noticeable in terms of transportation system effects, the concept of telecommuting must be applied in formal arrangements to large numbers of white-collar employees. The travel impacts of neighborhood work centers were analyzed in the context of evaluating office decentralization policies in the United Kingdom. Daniels (1981), has shown that the major effects of moving offices to peripheral locations are the increased reliance on automobile travel and shorter trip lengths. This varies between locations within Greater London and others. As in London, use of public transport rose slightly. Wabe (1967), reached similar conclusions about these two effects. The value of these changes is different for various actors involved. Although the energy costs resulting from the increased use of private automobiles and the lesser use of public transportation may be viewed as negative effects from the point of view of societal goals, individuals' welfare may have improved as a result of the shorter trips. The work-at-home arrangement attracted the interest of researchers and the popular media more than other forms of remote work, probably beause if it were to be implemented widely, it would provide the greatest say-

Telecommunicationsand travel relationships ings in terms of energy, pollution and congestion. Also, it presents a radical change in the life-styles the Western world has adopted since the Industrial Revolution, which took people out of their homes. To date, the most comprehensive assessment of this option was performed by SRI (1977), who have attempted to quantify the effects on energy and other areas. Other evaluations of this Option include Nilles et al. (1976), Oberman (1981), Olson, (1983) and Pratt (1984). Only a few experiments on this concept are conducted, mainly in the United States. The experience gathered points to some problems associated with this option. Olson (1981, 1982) has addressed a number of issues related to managerial problems. For example, the lack of direct contact with employees. She points to some desired conditions that should be considered for this type of work. Others have developed cookbook-style guides to implementing this option (Renfro, 1982; DeSanctis, 1983). Salomon and Salomon (1984) and Shamir and Salomon (1985) have suggested that the effects on the individual employee may not all be positive and therefore one can expect labor opposition to this arrangement if it were imposed as a full time arrangement. Some of the moderating variables that should be noted in this context are, of course, the type of roles an individual employee plays at home and at work. For example, it is hypothesized that the importance of social interaction at work varies across occupations, depending on the extent to which work is a central life interest for the individual. A study sponsored by the Forecasting and Assessment in Science and Technology Project (FAST, 1982), suggested the move to working at home is a myth, not realistic within the "long-term" scope of the study. In view of some possible adverse effects of working at home, Salomon and Salomon (1984) have suggested that the journey to work may have an important positive role. There is some evidence that this trip serves as a desired buffer between the roles fulfilled at home and at work, of which a person may be deprived if working at home. The characteristics of such a buffer, once identified, may provide inputs to planners of such concepts as the neighborhood work center.

3.2. Teleconferencing and electronic meetings Conferences that in the past required a co-location of participants in time and space can now be held relaxing this constraint. The concept of teleconferencing refers to a wide set of technologies, varying in the options provided, technical sophistication and costs, which enables conferencing while participants are at remote locations. Two qualities distinguish conferences from other modes of communications. First, participants are able to transmit and receive nonverbal communications, the importance of which depends on the nature of the communications and the degree of acquaintance between participants. Second, conferences allow for an interactive mode of communications with interruptions for clarification, protest or support. The interactive mode is efficient for purposes of obtaining immediate reactions to new ideas and designs. To that end, conferences often involve, besides

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the use of oral communications, the use of written or graphic information. Teleconferencing systems vary in their ability to accommodate these qualities. Simple audio-only conferencing has been availiable through the telephone system for a number of years in many countries. It permits the transmission of verbal and nonverbal communications. More advanced systems supplement verbal communications with "freeze" pictures of participants or documents, or full motion video communications. The more information transmitted, the greater the need for bandwidth of channels used and hence greater capital and operating costs are involved. A variant of teleconferencing is computer conferencing, which allows the transmission of written (and graphic) information while relaxing the requirement for co-location in time (Hiltz and Turoff, 1978). The impact of teleconferences on transportation depends on the degree to which this technology will be adopted as a substitute for face-to-face conferences, and that depends on the ability of the technology to serve users in a cost-effective way. Therefore, producers of teleconference systems attempt to provide systems that imitate attributes of face-to-face meetings. For example, CONGRESS (a computer-assisted conferencing system) allows the transmission of discretionary notes between participants (Gardan, 1979). Yet, McCartney (1983) reports that systems that are less sophisticated present greater economies at this time. A possible impact, developing over a longer time range, is the generation of new trips, as a result of maintaining interaction channels without which teleconference systems would not exist. One noticeable distinction between teleconferencing and other uses of telecommunications is that decisions on its use are, in most cases, made by a firm and not by an individual user. A firm's decision to adopt a teleconferencing system is likely to be based on economic grounds, with the objective of minimizing its total communication costs. Travel costs savings are the most popular argument used for justifying investments in teleconferencing systems (Charles, 1981), possibly because they are more easily measured, compared with other arguments. There is general expectation that the relative costs of telecommunications compared with transpotation will decline but the actual rate is unknown. Also, damages incurred by "the trip not made" (e.g. loss of business opportunity, or a loss due to a reduction in employees' satisfaction and consequently their productivity, as a result of eliminating travel) are quite unknown in terms of magnitude and time horizon. An economic evaluation of the teleconference-travel relationship is complicated by the fact that given the availability of a system, the intra- and possibly intercorporate interactions increase. The value of this increase in communications must be assessed, and it need not always be positive. An over-supply of information within a corporation may have a negative impact on efficiency. Gold (1980) makes an imporatant distinction between cost savings and cost elimination, which are often confused in this context. If the use of teleconferencing is considered in the context of relocation, Pye (1977), re-

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ports that the costs of maintaining contact may exceed the benefits of incentives to move. Teleconferencing systems will. where adopted, affect mainly business travel. To assess the upper bounds of this impact, it is necessary to identify the quantity of substitutable meetings. Business trips have not been the subject of extensive research and the nature of communications performed at the trip ends was only studied in the context of office relocation (e.g. Goddard and Morris, 1976; Thorngren, 1973). However, a number of corporations have assessed their potential savings through teleconferencing as justifying investments. Aetna, for example, expects to recover its investments within 7½ years, assuming a 10% cut in travel (EDP Analyzer, 1982). ARCO expects to save 20% Of its current $50 million annual travel expenses, through a $20 million system (Edwards, 1981). The transportation effects of a teleconferencing system should be analyzed at two separate levels: the metropolitan and the interurban levels. The major difference being the modes of travel used and the fixed costs associated with trip making in terms of necessary preparations and coordination. At the intercity level, the sector most likely to be affected is air transportation. It is estimated that business travel comprises 50% of the travellers in the United States. (Aviation Week and Space Technology, June 13, 1983), probably varying widely across routes. But, the importance of business travel to the airline industry exceeds that figure because, first, business travellers usually pay full fare and therefore account for a greater part of the revenue than their occupancy share. Second, business travel has an important stabilizing factor for the airline industry, given its lesser seasonal fluctuations and sensitivity to economic changes compared with discretionary travel. For these reasons, airlines compete in providing service qualities to attract business travellers. A recent development in this industry is the entry of airlines specializing in business travel, such as AIRI (Aviation Week and Space Technology, April 25, 1983). A reduction in the demand for air travel resulting from wide scale usage of teleconferencing is likely to harm all airlines. A second transport sector to be adversely affected by a reduction in intercity business travel due to the substitution of teleconferencing is the rental vehicle operation. Unfortunately, no data were available to assess the reliance of this industry on the business sector, but it is assumed that a significant proportion of their operations is with business travellers. At the metropolitan scale, travel by public or private modes, elimination of lodging costs and the lower need for pretravel deliberations constitute a different pattern of costs and hence inputs to decisions on substitution. Success with systems such as that of Aetna, in the Hartford (Connecticut) area, may indicate the potential for intracorporate systems. However, when travel costs are relatively low, travel for contacts may be preferred over telecommunications. Evidently, a hint is made to that effect by McCartney (1983), who mentirns that only a few firms have successfully adopted teleconferencing.

3.3. Teleservices Teleservices refer to a wide and growing set of activities provided for consumers via telecommunications channels. Three major applications are discussed in this section by order of their potential effect on transportation systems: teleshopping, telebanking, and information access services. 3.3(1). Teleshopping. Shopping via telecommunications can take a number of forms, varying in the level of sophistication of the technology. Telephone orders and home delivery by suppliers have been available as early as 1905 (Pool, 1983). Yet, to our knowledge the impact of this service on travel behavior has not been a subject of research. More advanced shopping systems are those used by Times Mirror Satellite Programming Co. (Anon. in Broadcasting, 1980) or that of Sears, displaying information on products and prices on a CATV system or on a home video set, using catalog disks, where customers have to place their orders by telephone. Interactive facilities go a step further and allow ordering directly from the suppliers' computers rather than through personnel. Teleshopping can substitute for that portion of trips that is made by customers to stores. However, the delivery must still be made, but it is generally accepted that delivery systems can operate more efficiently by a "travelling salesman" than by individuals' trips, from the societal point of view. Still, to forecast the effect of teleshopping it is necessary to forecast the degree of penetration of this type of transaction into the market. Three aspects should, according to Bartlett (1981), be addressed: (a) the technology, (b) the behavioral response and (c) the economics of the arrangement. As the technology is readily available, even if not finetuned to consumers' needs, we will discuss here only the latter two aspects. Rosenberg and Hirschman (1980), raise a number of points that in their view tend to support the trend toward nonstore retailing. Among these are the increased importance of "ego-centered" merchandise, the increase in women's participation in the labor force and the resulting decrease in available time for shopping, and the general desire for increased leisure time. Also, they note the increased acceptance by consumers of innovative technology-intensive services, such as home computers and bank cards for automatic tellers, and they cite evidence of a growing nonstore retailing activity. The question then is what type of current retail activity will be replaced by teleshopping. Clearly, the first type to be replaced is telephone or mail order shopping. Customers already accepting the impersonal mechanism are likely to adopt the move to more efficient teleshopping offered by computer facilities. This diversion however, will not affect the transport system. Other shopping activities could conceivably be divided into two types, by the role they play in the individual's total activity pattern. Shopping geared to maintenance of the household (food, etc.) could be diverted to teleshopping, as people may perceive this type as an undesired, obligatory and timeconsuming activity. Store shopping may also be perceived as more money consuming, because shoppers are

Telecommunications and travel relationships exposed to items that may not be necessary. The other type of shopping activity is fulfillment of the role of recreation or entertainment. Shopping malls that combine a variety of stores, including "ego-intensive" stores (Rosenberg and Hirschman, 1980), as well as cafes and dining facilities, cater for this demand. It is plausible to assume that this type of recreational shopping will continue to attract customers, and may even be intensified if people are home-bound for longer periods as a result of working at home, thus enhancing travel. This enhancement could be attributed to telecommunications. The economics of teleshopping present another dimension that will affect its success, as well as the magnitude of the impact on travel patterns. Initial calculations show that the concept is viable. Bartlett (1981), for example, shows that although delivery expenses will increase, other expenses are likely to decline, resulting in greater profits. Rosenberg and Hirschman (1980) identify different financing schemes in which either the media, the customer or the retailer invest the larger share of the capital. Usage of teleshopping and the effects on store retailers in terms of price competition under the three schemes can vary widely. Hence the effect on the transport system is not easily quantifiable. Hiller (1983) doubts whether the logistics involved in electronic shopping are economically viable once the volume exceeds that which can be handled by federal or private delivery systems in the United States. The literature on transportation telecommunications interactions does not, in most cases, address the effect of teleshopping, probably because of its limited magnitude. Sviden (1983) does suggest that of the 11% of the total passenger kilometers performed in Sweden for shopping trips (including personal business), some 50% may be eliminated once teleshopping gains popularity. But, he notes that the strength of habits may require a generation for this to occur, and therefore he predicts only a 25% reduction by the year 2010. He also notes that if decentralization occurs simultaneously, the reduction in passenger kilometers will be smaller. The fact that many shopping trips are chained into complex (work) trips (Hanson, 1982), should also be considered in assessing the effects of teleshopping on travel. 3.3(2). Telebanking. Telebanking is an example of a service that may provide for an actual substitution of trips. Banking activity, unlike shopping, does not serve as a recreational activity and there is no need to see or touch the merchandise before making a decision on purchase. Moreover, most activities at the bank are routine and only rarely is there a need for a face-to-face meeting with bank personnel. The technology of telebanking is already quite popular as more automatic teller machines (ATMs) are available and used in the Western world. A process of Electronic Funds Transfer (EFT) is still in its infancy, but is available and is an essential element in the teleshopping process. Surprisingly, predictions of its widescale adoption have not been realized yet. Clark (1979), claims that these predictions are "technologically drive n " and fail to assess the nontechnical barriers. Cusi0mer inertia is part of the explanation for the fact that 90% of TR(A)20:3-D

233 the transactions in the United Kingdom in 1979 were still made in cash and, as 73% of the total number of transactions in that country involve individuals' accounts, it seems that the trip to the bank is still a frequent need. This exemplifies again that technology alone, even if it is cost saving, is not guaranteed immediate adoption. One should note that variations between countries in the structure of the banking system and salary payment mechanisms may account for variations in penetration of telebanking. In Israel, for example, where three digit inflation prevails, people have to perform frequent transactions to preserve the value of their assets. We hypothesize that as the frequency of transactions increases, the inclination to use EFT and ATMs increases. In fact, the use of smart ATMs, shared by a number of banks and connected simultaneously to their respective computers, is very popular in Israel. In conclusion, although we predict that telebanking will in the long run exhibit the greatest relative substitution of trips, its importance may be minimal. Banking trips, it seems, constitute a very small share of total travel, and Hanson (1980) reports that relatively many bank trips are chained to work trips. 3.3(3). Information access services. A combination of computerized data banks, narrow or more likely r wideband channels, such as those of CATV, and a home television set or home computer can facilitate a service known as videotext.* As information can be retrieved at homes or at offices, some trips made for the purpose of obtaining what may be labeled "formal" information could be eliminated. Videotext systems are used for transmitting data such as weather information, schedules of events, newspapers texts and other kinds. A number of experimental systems are active in Western Europe, the United States and Japan. None of them have gained wide use yet, despite their availability, in some cases at no costs to users. Elton and Carey (1983), Bolton (1983) and Pritchard (1981) report on some of the reasons for the slow pace of adoption. Technical design is one explanation. The lack of value of its use is another. Sigel (1983) elaborates on the differential economic value of information provided by videotext to business and to private users, and concludes that such systems will enter homes only as piggy-backs on systems that provide options for transactions. Wallenstein (1982) points to a number of problems, as well as benefits that may arise from home-delivered information. He argues that its value to users is not as evident as to the suppliers. But even if eventually videotext will gain wide popularity, it seems that its impact on travel patterns will be minimal. Information of the type provided by the system does not usually generate trips, as it is provided by radio, television, published media and by telephone calls. Short trips to purchase newspapers may be eliminated and delivery systems of newspapers can be reduced if people

* The term videotext is used here as a generic concept for systems that either interactively or not, are used to transmit data to a remote screen.

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accept reading off the screen as an alternative to paper reading. (It is not likely that people will produce hard copies of newspapers at their homes). Videotext systems geared to users in remote rural settings such as the Grassroots system by Telidon, in Canada, may have a different effect. Farmers acting as businesses certainly value the information, but here too, it is not likely to substitute for trips as much as to improve the efficiency of operations relative to the situation where the information is not accessible. The use of videotext systems to retrieve travel information is likely to have a positive effect on the quality of service provided, and may also, through a reduction in the costs of planning a trip, result in a slight increase in trip making. 3.3(4). Entertainment and leisure. Telecommunications offer a vareity of services intended for leisure activities. Some of these, such as cable TV and home computer games, have already gained popularity in some Western countries and future developments promise an increase in the variety of entertainment and leisure-oriented services. Although such services can be expected to affect travel, their effect, according to Darwin (1982), has not been analyzed to date. Some reference in this direction is made by Salomon (1985). As noted above, trips for social and recreational purposes satisfy a need that is not as tangible as work or maintenance trips. Therefore the demand elasticity with respect to cost and time is higher for this trip purpose. The implications of this may act in two directions. For individuals with a tight space-time budget, the opportunity to enjoy a greater variety of leisure activities at home may substitute travel for that purpose. On the other hand, for individuals who will become "homebound" because they will work at home it is expected that travel for recreational purposes will increase. This is a result of a basic desire to move so as to satisfy a need for varied experience, exploratory motivation and the relief of boredom. Assessing the actual magnitude of these effects should be a goal of future research efforts. 3.4. Mobile communications A very broad definition of mobile communications will be used here, namely any communications made with a vehicle, not necessarily through devices on the vehicle itself. It includes means of communications such as roadside facilities, two- and one-way radios, and transponders. As a generalization, mobile communications technologies exemplify the case in which telecommunications complement the transportation system by a second order interaction. Complementarity is used here in the sense that one system makes the other one more efficient. Measures of efficiency may include reductions in the costs of providing a service or improvements of service without increasing costs, where costs are taken as total social costs. 3.4( I ). Two-way radios. The most popular application of mobile communications concepts is two-way radios. They have been in use for many years by emergency services and transport operations involving distribution

and collection, such as taxi and freight services. In recent years two-way radios in the Citizens' Band (CB) range used for mobile communications became affordable and very popular with private users. A large number of transportation operators use radio dispatching, increasingly augmented by computers, for their regular operations of delivery or collection serving multiple destinations. In these applications the distinction between substitution and complementary relationships becomes somewhat unclear. The abilitiy to eliminate a section of a truck's trip to a delivery that is cancelled by telephone while the truck is already on route is certainly contributing to efficiency, implying a complementary relationship. However, a segment of a trip was substituted by conveying the information about its need through the telephone and radio rather than through the driver arriving at the destination. Clearly, improvements in load-factors, routing and back-haul planning obtained through telecommunications increase the efficiency of transport systems. Limitations on the number of simultaneous users of each channel, which constrained liberal licensing for many years, are being solved by technological sophistication such as the Multi-Channel Trunked System (MCTS), which allows computer-assisted search among several channels for an available one, or the cellular system, which divides an urban area into a large number or broadcasting ceils (Frey and Lee, 1978). Relatively little research has been directed at the systematic analysis of the contribution of two-way radio to the efficiency of operations, although such efficiencies are advertized by producers of telecommunications equipment. Meyburg and Thatcher (1978a) have calculated the potential increase in efficiency and load factors for for-hire trucks with and without radios. Based on these potential savings, estimated costs of communications systems and channel congestion costs that may be relieved by the new technologies, they have assessed market penetration levels. Another attempt to quantify the economics of mobile communications was performed by Blackstone and Ware (1978). Unfortunately, this attempt is not supported by empirical evidence. Meyburg and Thatcher (1978b) and Meyburg (1983) have also analyzed potential exploitation of mobile communications for passenger transportation, especially in demand-responsive systems. These exemplify the case of telecommunications complementing the transportation system by conserving resources through reducing delays caused by "no-show" situations or improving the level of service by timely coordination of pick-ups. 3.4(2). Driver advisory systems. Telecommunications, employing various technologies, can serve as channels for advising drivers on-route with information that may affect their behavior. This has been done for some years with information on weather, driving conditions and other items of interest to drivers, by real-time broadcasting from helicopters or land stations to radio receivers. The U.S. Department of Transportation is developing the HAR system (Highway Advisory Radio), which is a low power transmitter located at the highway's edge,

Telecommunications and travel relationships advising drivers of particular local problems such as detours. Attention to these broadcasts is made through posted signs (Dudek and Huchingson, 1982). Experimentation with roadside dynamic visual displays is also employing telecommunications technologies. Another direction is employed in the ARISE project, which develops onboard computer aided advisory system for drivers (Sviden, 1984). 3.4(3). Vehicle monitoring systems. Increased efficiency of transport systems can be achieved through the monitoring of the location of vehicles on a continuous or frequent basis, particularly for transport operators such as trucking, buses or taxi companies, and also for the general highway traffic (Symes, 1980). Transportation planners have, for a long time, desired a mechanism that will permit collection of congestion Costs. Barriers to doing so were the cost of data that permit calculation of the dynamic marginal costs of vehicles entering a congested road and the effort of collecting the appropriate tolls. Wigan (1983a) suggests that through the reduced costs of technical means for data collection and processing, long awaited contributions to the transport system's efficiency can be realized. A first implementation of the electronic road pricing (ERP) system is underway in Hong Kong (Dawson, 1984), where automatic monitoring of traffic and billing of vehicles entering the city's center is achieved. It uses electronically readable license plates whose installation is required on the bottom of all vehicles. If shown to be cost effective, such technologies may have a profound effect on vehicle usage in congested areas. 3.5 Electronic message transfer (EMT) Paper-based information is presently delivered by government-owned postal systems and by other firms competing particularly for some special services. In the case of paper-based information, there is no advantage or need for face-to-face interaction and a technology capable of conveying written or graphic information could fully substitute travel made by various carriers for delivery. Computerized conferencing systems, noted in section 3.2, are an example of this application. The U.S. Postal Service is developing a Hybrid EMT system.-Messages will be brought into post offices, transformed to electronic signals and transmitted to other post offices in the addressees' area, where they will be delivered either as printed material or in magnetic form. It can also provide for facsimile service. Future developments of this system may provide end users with direct access to the trunk lines of the postal service. The main advantage of EMT compared to conventional delivery is the speed. As more companies enter the market for high-speed mail, government postal services must also compete, as they may lose their source of revenues necessary for cross-subsidization of service in low-traffic areas. EMT's effects on transportation are limited to the conservation of resources for such operators as the postal service or special couriers. According to Lee and Meyburg (1981), savings of energy, vehicles and paper can be realized by the Hybrid system noted above. The'magnitude of the savings in milege and fleet requirements will depend on the degree to which consumers will adopt

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EMT as a substitute for conventional paper mail. The U.S. Postal Service now operates 190,000 vehicles, so even marginal savings in petrolium-based energy can be important for such operators. By contrast to these societal benefits, transport operators performing deliveries are likely to lose revenues. 4. CONCLUSIONS The main conclusion to be drawn from this review is that the relationship between telecommunications and transportation is not unidirectional. There is some evidence to support each of the hypothesized interactions: substitution, enhancement and complementarity. More specifically, the conclusions are of two types: First, some that pertain to the subject matter are presented, followed by others that deal with methodological issues: I. The predominance of the substitution hypothesis in the literature stems from two factors. First, a coincidence of strong vested interests on behalf of producers of telecommunications technologies and the quest of transport planners to solve problems via technology-oriented solutions rather than through measures that require changes in consumer or institutional behavior. Second, the substitution effect is radical and therefore attractive for various audiences. 2. A cautious general conclusion on the relationship between transportation and telecommunication suggests that travel patterns will be modified rather than reduced (Wigan, 1984; Salomon, 1985). 3. The latter conclusion is partially based on a yet untested hypothesis on the synergistic effects of telecommunications on daily life. That hypothesis suggests, based on psychological theory, that if the demand for out of home activities (such as work and shopping) will be satisfied by telecommunications, new trips will be generated for other purposes, so as to satisfy a nontangible need for mobility. 4. Consumers are likely to make their choices on the use of either travel or telecommunications on the basis of which mode better serves their ends. Whatever methodology is employed to analyze such choices, emphasis must be given not only to the (decreasing) cost side but also to the benefits side. The benefits accrued from information cannot always be measured, but the subjective value of marginal information in decreasing uncertainty seems to be a critical factor in explaining mode choice in this context (Manski and Saloman, 1985). 5. Analysis of the interactions requires a distinction between business related travel and individual's travel. On the methodological issues: I. It is suggested that efforts will be directed toward empirical analyses of on-going implementations of telecommunications technologies or situations that shed light on possible applications of such technologies. 2. A broad view should be employed so as to capture not only the limited effects, such as the reduction of travel to work, but the secondary effects, such as an increase

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in other travel by the same individuals, These studies should identify the behavioral changes and assess their magnitude. 3. The complexity of the effects calls for research that departs from traditional disciplinary approaches or scopes to more multidisciplinary analyses. 4. Any conclusion as to the nature of the interactions between transport and telecommunications identified in a given context must be explicitly qualified to the limitation of that context. In view of past research this trivial point seems to be of great importance, especially if investment decisions are to be made on the basis of expected modal shifts from transport to telecommunications. In summary, the technocratic approach, supported by strong economic interests, clearly favors the adoption of new telecommunications technologies as remedies for transportation problems. Yet, in view of the potential social costs, we stress that rather than repeating the experience of the automobile, which provided mobility at a high social cost, a humanistic approach should be employed concurrently, to improve the probability of balanced decision-making. To that end, this review attempted to assess the impact of the technology on transportation, pointing out some of the potential social benefits and costs. The present stage, when the technology is available, but not yet widely adopted, is the time in which policies on design and development, as well as government or social intervention, can be formulated to enhance the likelihood of providing society with a technology it can afford.

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