- Email: [email protected]
The ARGO Project: assessing NA-TECH risks on offshore oil platforms
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Energy (2017) 000–000 145–152 EnergyProcedia Procedia125 00 (2017) www.elsevier.com/locate/procedia
European Geosciences Union General Assembly 2017, EGU European Geosciences Union General Assembly 2017, Division Energy, Resources & Environment, ERE EGU Division Energy, Resources & Environment, ERE
The ARGO Project: assessing NA-TECH risks on offshore oil The 15th International Symposium on District Heating The ARGO Project: assessing NA-TECH risks and on Cooling offshore oil platforms platforms Assessing of using the heat demand-outdoor a,b, the feasibility b Paolo Capuanoa,b,*, Anna Bascob, Angela Di Ruoccobb, Simona Espositocc, Giannetta d Capuano function b e heatEsposito f forecast Paolo *, Anna Basco Di Ruocco , Simona , Giannetta temperature for a, Angela long-term district demand Fusco d, Alexander Garcia-Aristizabalb, Paola Mercoglianoe, Ernesto Salzanof, Giuseppe b Garcia-Aristizabal b,g , Paola Mercogliano h Fusco , Alexander , Ernesto Salzano b, Giuseppe Solaroa,b,c Scandone b, Gianvito Teofilo b,g, Paolo b a a b h, and Paolo Gasparini c c Solaro , Gianvito , Paolo Scandone , and Paolo Gasparini I. Andrić *, A. PinaTeofilo , P. Ferrão , J. Fournier ., B. Lacarrière , O. Le Corre
a University of Salerno, Department of Physics "E. R. Caianiello", Fisciano (SA) 84084, Italy ba Center for the Analysis and Monitoring of Environmental Risk (AMRA), University of Salerno, of Physics "E. R. Caianiello", Fisciano (SA) 80125, 84084, Italy IN+ Center for Innovation, Technology andDepartment Policy Research - Instituto Superior Técnico, Av.Napoli Rovisco Pais 1,Italy, 1049-001 Lisbon, Portugal c b b SCCER-SoE ETH 291 Zurich, Zurich 8092, Switzerland, Center for theRecherche Analysis and Monitoring of Environmental Risk (AMRA), Napoli 80125, Italy, Veolia & Innovation, Avenue Dreyfous Daniel, 78520 Limay, France d c c University of Naples "Parthenope", Department of Science andSwitzerland, Technology, 80143, SCCER-SoE ETH Zurich,- IMT Zurich 8092, Département Systèmes Énergétiques et Environnement Atlantique, 4 rue AlfredNapoli Kastler, 44300Italy, Nantes, France e d Euro-Mediterranean Center on Climate Change (CMCC), Capua (CE)Napoli 81043,80143, Italy, Italy, University of Naples "Parthenope", Department of Science and Technology, f e University of Bologna, Department of Civil, Chemical, Environmental, and Materials Engineering, Bologna 40131, Italy, Euro-Mediterranean Center on Climate Change (CMCC), Capua (CE) 81043, Italy, g f Ministry of Economic Development, Directorate-general for safety of mining and activities (DGS-UNMIG), Roma 00187, University of Bologna, Department of Civil, Chemical, Environmental, and energy Materials Engineering, Bologna 40131, Italy, Italy, h g University of Pisa, Department ofof Earth Sciences, Pisa 56126, Italy Ministry of Economic Development, Directorate-general for safety mining and energy activities (DGS-UNMIG), Roma 00187, Italy, h Abstract University of Pisa, Department of Earth Sciences, Pisa 56126, Italy a
District heating networks are commonly addressed in the literature as one of the most effective solutions for decreasing the Abstract greenhouse gas emissions from the building sector. These systems require high investments which are returned through the heat Abstract sales. Due to the and changed climate conditions and building renovation policies, heat project, demandfunded in the by future could Ministry decrease, Analysis of natural anthRopoGenic risks on Offshore platforms (ARGO) is a 3-years the Italian prolonging the investment return period. Analysis of natural and anthRopoGenic on Offshore platforms (ARGO) Research is a 3-years project, funded by the Italian Ministry of Economic Development. The project, risks coordinated by AMRA , a permanent Centre for the development of innovative The main scope of thistopaper to assesscoordinated the feasibility of using heat demand – outdoor temperature functionofforofnatural heat demand of Economic Development. Theisproject, by AMRA , athe permanent Research Centre for the development innovative technologies applied environmental problems, aims at providing technical-support for analysis and forecast. The district of Alvalade, located in Lisbon (Portugal), was used as a case study. The district is consisted ofand 665 technologies applied to environmental problems, aims at providing technical-support for the analysis of natural anthropogenic risks on offshore oil-platforms. ARGO has developed methodologies for the probabilistic analysis of industrial buildingstriggered thatrisks varyby in natural both construction period andontypology. Three weather (low, high) and of three district anthropogenic on offshore oil-platforms. ARGO has developed methodologies the probabilistic analysis industrial accidents events (NA-TECH) offshore platforms. The scenarios final for analysis ofmedium, the ARGO Project suggest a renovation scenarios developed (shallow, deep). To using estimate the error, obtained heat demand were accidents triggered by natural events (NA-TECH) on offshore platforms. The high final analysis ofnetworks. the ARGO Projectvalues suggest a constant monitoring of were exploitation activity, fluids intermediate, re-injection and storage technology compared with results from a dynamic heat fluids demand model, previously developed andtechnology validated by the authors. constant monitoring of exploitation activity, re-injection and storage using high networks. results showed that when only weatherLtd. change is considered, the margin of error could be acceptable for some applications ©The 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier ©(the 2017 TheinAuthors. Published by Elsevier Ltd. error annual demand was lower than for all weather scenariosGeosciences considered).Union However, after introducing renovation © 2017 The Authors. Published by Ltd.20% Peer-review under responsibility of Elsevier the scientific committee of the European (EGU) General Assembly 2017 Peer-review under responsibility of theupscientific committee of the European Geosciences Unionscenarios (EGU) General Assembly scenarios, the error value increased to 59.5% (depending on the weather and renovation combination considered). Peer-review under responsibility ofthe theEnvironment scientific committee of the European Geosciences Union (EGU) General Assembly 2017 –2017 Division Energy, Resources and (ERE). –value Division Energy, Resources and the Environment (ERE).the range of 3.8% up to 8% per decade, that corresponds to the of slope coefficient on average within –The Division Energy, Resources andincreased the Environment (ERE). decrease Na-Tech; in the number of heating hours of 22-139h during the heating season (depending on the combination of weather and Keywords: multi-risk; offshore oil platforms; seismicity; meteo-marine extreme events. renovation scenarios considered). the other seismicity; hand, function intercept increased Keywords: Na-Tech; multi-risk; offshoreOn oil platforms; meteo-marine extreme events.for 7.8-12.7% per decade (depending on the coupled scenarios). The values suggested could be used to modify the function parameters for the scenarios considered, and improve the accuracy of heat demand estimations. © 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd. Peer-review under responsibility of the Scientific Committee of The 15th International Symposium on District Heating and * Corresponding author. Tel.: +39-089-96-8208; fax: +39-089-96-9658. Cooling.
* Corresponding Tel.: +39-089-96-8208; fax: +39-089-96-9658. E-mail address:author. [email protected] E-mail address: [email protected] Keywords: Heat demand; Forecast; Climate change 1876-6102 © 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd. 1876-6102 © 2017 Authors. Published Elsevier committee Ltd. Peer-review underThe responsibility of theby scientific of the European Geosciences Union (EGU) General Assembly 2017
under responsibility theEnvironment scientific committee –Peer-review Division Energy, Resources andofthe (ERE). of the European Geosciences Union (EGU) General Assembly 2017 – Division Energy, Resources and the Environment (ERE). 1876-6102 © 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd. Peer-review under responsibility of the Scientific Committee of The 15th International Symposium on District Heating and Cooling. 1876-6102 © 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd. Peer-review under responsibility of the scientific committee of the European Geosciences Union (EGU) General Assembly 2017 – Division Energy, Resources and the Environment (ERE). 10.1016/j.egypro.2017.08.148
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1. Introduction Within the framework of scientific collaborations on the offshore safety promoted by the “Italian Ministry of Economic Development-Directorate-General for safety of mining and energy activities” (DGS-UNMIG), AMRA has made available its expertise regarding the possibility of developing a quantitative approach for multi-risk assessments. This was achieved by the analysis of a wide range of risk sources (Fig. 1).
Fig. 1. Identification of possible environment where triggering sequences of events that can lead to accidents on offshore platforms can occur.
This method, taking into account possible scenarios of interaction and the cascading effects of accidents, ensure the possibility to define in terms of probabilities, the expected hazard. The multi-risk approach developed within the ARGO project (Analysis of natural and anthRopoGenic risks on Offshore platforms) is based on a case study in the offshore of the Adriatic Sea, as well as essential data provided by Edison S.p.A (Italian energy company). Project findings, described in the following sections, led to the formulation of a set of recommendations to ensure an appropriate monitoring useful to the definition of risks analysis for the offshore platforms. 2. Activities and results The ARGO Project had two main objectives: 1) Development of methodologies to analyze natural and anthropogenic risks for protection and safety of oil and gas offshore platforms; 2) Provide technical support for the elaboration of recommendations resulting from project findings. The selected case studies have been focused on three areas of the Adriatic Sea (Fig. 2): two gas extraction sites (San Giorgio Mare and Santo Stefano Mare) and one oil extraction site (Rospo Mare). Within the ARGO Project was also carried out an assessment of the environmental effects of the water reinjection at the site of the Santa Maria Mare.
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Fig. 2. The ARGO Project case studies. INGV DISS 3.2.0 of DISS Working Group [1] composite seismogenic sources are also showed.
The study initially focused the definition of the case studies and the identification of necessary data for analysis, with particular reference to: meteo-marine data, atmospheric – circulation model, operational characteristics of the platforms and production data, historical offshore accidents documentation, geological and structural data, seismic lines, reservoir characteristics, images from remote sensors. The following phase consisted in the collection of all the kind of data available for the study area at the archive of the DGS-UNMIG [2] and from scientific and technical literature. Finally, specific workflows for the defined project aims have been developed. In order to achieve these objectives, the project activities were divided into six macroactivities. Results are illustrated in the following section. 2.1. Determination of risk related to meteo-marine extreme events, considering the effects of climate change scenarios. The aim of this activity was to characterize the study area from the meteo-marine point of view by analyzing historical and instrumental data such as sea level, atmospheric pressure, temperature of the sea and air, relative humidity and wind speed. Subsequently, it was carried out the correlation analysis between the meteomarine instrumental data and the atmospheric model data (RCM); this analysis showed significant correlations between instrumental and model data for the parameter “air temperature” in all study areas. Further significant correlations identified refer to the maximum wind speed. Finally, it was performed an analysis for the extreme events for different scenarios [3], [4] of climate change (RCP scenarios - Representative Concentration Pathways of the IPCC RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) in order to identify possible anomalies for the local climate [5], with particular attention to “maximum wind velocity” (Fig. 3) and “daily accumulated rainfall”. In Figure 3 appear rather evident that the hazard curves (median), obtained for projections (near and far future) show higher values than the curve obtained for the historical reference period. However, considering the uncertainties in the estimates, the values are higher for the low return periods (up to 10 years), while for the highest return periods, the uncertainties are much wider, and therefore the comparison becomes more uncertain.
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Fig. 3. Example of hazard curves for the daily maximum wind speed in the area of San Giorgio Mare. Comparison between the historical reference time and projection, considering the RCP4.5 scenario.
2.2. Assessment of systemic vulnerabilities and of the main structural elements of the offshore platforms to meteomarine events. The objective of this activity was to characterize the vulnerability of the offshore platforms with respect to the occurrence of meteo-marine extreme events using fragility curves (for types of platforms) that provide the probability of exceeding a certain threshold of damage. For this purpose, the different type of offshore production platforms and the structural elements that characterize it were defined, paying particular attention to fixed platforms, the category to which belong the studied Edison platforms. The study framed the European and national regulatory environment, in particular in reference to the standards used in the design of the offshore platforms in response to extreme natural events (i.e. API RP 2A and ISO 19900 series). It was carried out an historical analysis on damages observed in past, caused by extreme meteomarine events [6]. Furthermore, historical data adopted to assess the vulnerability of the offshore platforms, have been described. After many industrial accidents related to offshore oil platforms caused by extreme weather events in the last years, it is of uppermost importance to perform a detailed assessment on incidental dynamics in oil and gas production areas. The study also included a data collection phase on the structural characteristics and layout of all the sensitive plants present on the studied platforms, with particular attention to the Santo Stefano Mare platform. 2.3. Coastline evolution analysis near the offshore platforms. The study focused on the analysis of possible deformation of the coastline in front of the studied offshore platforms by using DInSAR. In particular, the activities were focused on the evaluation and analysis of deformation
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using SBAS-DInSAR of images acquired by Envisat satellite in the period 2002-2010 from ascending orbit, producing velocity maps and deformation time-series (Fig. 4). The low resolution spatial processing showed no deformation phenomena taking place in the period of observation, in the coastal area in front of the San Giorgio Mare platform, while the deformation time series in the vicinity of the Santo Stefano Mare offshore platform show a trend of about 4 cm subsidence in the time interval 2002-2010. In the case of Rospo Mare was not possible to detect any subsidence, due to the high signal inconsistency reflected from the site.
Fig. 4. Geocoded Map of average deformation velocity in LOS (cm/year), estimated at low spatial resolution and superimposed to an image of Google Earth of San Giorgio Mare area. The image refers to the elaboration of ENVISAT data acquired from ascending orbits in the period 20022010.
2.4. Triggered/Induced seismicity analysis. In order to carry out the geological-structural and seismotectonic characterization of the study area [7], it was performed the analysis of confidential data, seismic reflection profiles and well data, granted by Edison S.p.A.. In parallel, was carried out a study of historical seismicity (1000-1980), and of instrumental seismicity (since 1980 to present) (Fig. 5) by using data of the INGV (CPTI Working Group [8] and ISIDe database [9]). Figure 5 shows the epicenters localizations in the study area for M > 2. Is evident the existence of poor, low energy, seismicity (3 ≤ M ≤ 4.0) in the northern portion of the analyzed area, where is possible to highlight the existence of a small cluster in proximity of central Adriatic Sea [10], [11]. Along Abruzzo-Molise Apennine, near the Gargano Promontory and in proximity of the Tremiti Islands were identified others low- to middle-energy clusters.
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Fig. 5. Instrumental seismicity (2005-2016) of the study area.
2.5. Environmental impact studies of industrial accidents on offshore platforms. The study focused on the collection and analysis of the main methods used by public authorities, by nongovernmental organizations, and trade associations operating in the main western countries, for purposes of monitoring, analysis and assessment of accident risks arising from mining activities, with particular reference to releases of hazardous substances from offshore platforms [12]. The comparison between the different evaluation impact models is a prerequisite to built a methodology for the Italian case, starting from a database of environmental impacts and major accidents occurred on the oil & gas platforms and to the definition of studied asset danger level. We summarize the methods produced by the: International Association of Oil & Gas Producers (OGP) [13], the American Petroleum Institute (API), the Det Norske Veritas (DNV), the Health & Safety Executive (HSE) [14] and by the Norwegian Petroleum Safety Agency (PSA). The analysis of the WOAD database (World Offshore Accident Dataset) enabled the assessment of offshore accidents occurred at global and national levels. In order to get a useful result to classify these accidents, highlighting the causes and effects, have been extrapolated data on Italians accidents, those relating to accidents caused by global weather events that have determined containment releases or fires and those caused by earthquakes and volcanic eruptions. The WOAD database data on NA-TECH accidents on oil & gas platforms were reorganized in terms of Key Performance Indicators (KPI) according to the HSE scheme, chosen as analysis system. The result obtained refers just to the scenarios described, to define the level of release (whether gas oil), and then the corresponding value of the KPI.
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2.6. Implementing multihazard and multi-risk models for the integral evaluation of NA-TECH risks on offshore platforms. AMRA in the frame of this activity has developed a multi-hazard/risk methodology [15], [16], based on the bowtie approach (this is a graphical tool to support the representation of accident scenarios, starting from the cause of the accident to the consequences) and Bayesian techniques for data analysis. Thanks to this method, it is possible to analyze the probability of accidents occurrence on offshore platforms and their potential impact, taking into account uncertainties, and considering a wide range of natural and anthropic events. The methodology was applied to some of the platforms of San Giorgio Mare field in order to assess the probability of gas spill considering nine different paths used events tree (Fig. 6).
Fig. 6. Example of scenarios of events that can lead to hydrocarbon leak/spill.
3. Conclusion The final analysis of the ARGO Project has led to the expression of a series of recommendations, among which one of the most significant involved a constant monitoring of exploitation activity, fluid re-injection and storage through the use of high technology networks. Such networks should be designed to follow the evolution in space and time of microseismic activity, of soil deformation, of the pore pressure and of major meteo-marine parameters. Such networks should be operated before launching new activities, in order to evaluate the natural seismicity conditions, of ground deformation, of meteo-marine parameters and of downhole pressures in "unperturbed" conditions. Acknowledgements This study was financially supported by the “Progetto MISE-ARGO: Analisi dei Rischi naturali e AntropoGenici delle piattaforme petrolifere Offshore”, based on the agreement between AMRA Scarl and DGS-UNMIG of Ministry of Economic Development of Italy. The authors thank EDISON S.p.A. for providing data for the development of the project.
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References [1] DISS WORKING GROUP (2015) “Database of Individual Seismogenic Sources (DISS), Version 3.2.0: A compilation of potential sources for earthquakes larger than M 5.5 in Italy and surrounding areas.” http://diss.rm.ingv.it/diss/, Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, DOI:10.6092/INGV.IT-DISS3.2.0. [2] DGS-UNMIG “Historical exploration and exploitation oil & gas Italian activity - archive data”. Italian Ministry of Economic DevelopmentDirectorate-General for safety of mining and energy activities, Roma, Italy. [3] IPCC, 2012. Managing the risks of extreme events and disasters to advance climate change adaptation. In A Special Report of Working Groups I and II of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Field CB, Barros V, Stocker TF, Qin D, Dokken DJ, Ebi KL, Mastrandrea MD, Mach KJ, Plattner GK, Allen SK, Tignor M, Midgley PM (eds). Cambridge University Press: Cambridge, UK and New York, NY. [4] IPCC, 2013. Climate change 2013: the physical science basis. In: Contribution of working group I to the fifth assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, MA [5] ZOLLO, A. L., RILLO, V., BUCCHIGNANI, E., MONTESARCHIO, M. AND MERCOGLIANO, P., 2015. Extreme temperature and precipitation events over Italy: assessment of high-resolution simulations with COSMO-CLM and future scenarios. Int. J. Climatol.. doi: 10.1002/joc.4401] [6] CRUZ, A., STEINBERG, L.J., LUNA, R., 2001. Identifying Hurricane-Induced Hazardous Material Release Scenarios in a Petroleum Refinery. Natural Hazards Review, 2(4). [7] PATACCA, E., SCANDONE, P., DI LUZIO, E., CAVINATO, G.P., PAROTTO, M., 2008. Structural architecture of the central Apennines: interpretation of the CROP 11 seismic profile from the Adriatic coast to the orographic divide. Tectonics, 27, DOI:10.1029/2005TC001917. [8] CPTI WORKING GROUP (2004) “Catalogo Parametrico dei Terremoti Italiani, versione 2004 (CPTI04).” Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Bologna, Italy, available at http://emidius.mi.ingv.it/CPTI. [9] ISIDe WORKING GROUP (2016) “version 1.0” DOI: 10.13127/ISIDe. [10] CHIARABBA, C., JOVANE, L., DI STEFANO, R., 2005. A new view of Italian seismicity using 20 years of instrumental recordings. Tectonophysics, 395, 251-268. [11] DI BUCCI, D., BURRATO, P., VANNOLI, P., VALENSISE, G., 2010. Tectonic evidence for the ongoing Africa-Eurasia convegence in central Mediterranean foreland areas: A journey among long-lived shear zones, large earthquakes, and elusive fault motions, J. Geophys.Res., 115, B12404, DOI:10.1029/2009JB006480, 2010. [12] KRAUSMANN E., COZZANI V., SALZANO E., RENNI E., 2011. Industrial accidents triggered by natural hazards: an emerging risk issue, Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, 11, 921–929. [13] OGP, 2011. Recommended practice on Key Performance Indicator. Report n.456, International Association of Oil & Gas Producers. [14] HSE. Offshore Injury, Ill Health and Incident Statistics 2013/2014. London, UK: Health and Safety Executive, 2015. [15] GUAN, Y., LUO J., DUAN M., AND HUANG S., 2015. Risk analysis of subsea x-mas tree leakage. Advances in Structural Engineering and Mechanics ASEM15, Aug. 25-29. [16] HALL, P.L., STRUTT, J.E., 2003. Probabilistic physics-of-failure models for component reliabilities using Montecarlo simulations and Weibull analysis: a parametric study. Reliability Engineering and System Safety 80, 233-242
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European Geosciences Union General Assembly 2017, EGU European Geosciences Union General Assembly 2017, Division Energy, Resources & Environment, ERE EGU Division Energy, Resources & Environment, ERE
The ARGO Project: assessing NA-TECH risks on offshore oil The 15th International Symposium on District Heating The ARGO Project: assessing NA-TECH risks and on Cooling offshore oil platforms platforms Assessing of using the heat demand-outdoor a,b, the feasibility b Paolo Capuanoa,b,*, Anna Bascob, Angela Di Ruoccobb, Simona Espositocc, Giannetta d Capuano function b e heatEsposito f forecast Paolo *, Anna Basco Di Ruocco , Simona , Giannetta temperature for a, Angela long-term district demand Fusco d, Alexander Garcia-Aristizabalb, Paola Mercoglianoe, Ernesto Salzanof, Giuseppe b Garcia-Aristizabal b,g , Paola Mercogliano h Fusco , Alexander , Ernesto Salzano b, Giuseppe Solaroa,b,c Scandone b, Gianvito Teofilo b,g, Paolo b a a b h, and Paolo Gasparini c c Solaro , Gianvito , Paolo Scandone , and Paolo Gasparini I. Andrić *, A. PinaTeofilo , P. Ferrão , J. Fournier ., B. Lacarrière , O. Le Corre
a University of Salerno, Department of Physics "E. R. Caianiello", Fisciano (SA) 84084, Italy ba Center for the Analysis and Monitoring of Environmental Risk (AMRA), University of Salerno, of Physics "E. R. Caianiello", Fisciano (SA) 80125, 84084, Italy IN+ Center for Innovation, Technology andDepartment Policy Research - Instituto Superior Técnico, Av.Napoli Rovisco Pais 1,Italy, 1049-001 Lisbon, Portugal c b b SCCER-SoE ETH 291 Zurich, Zurich 8092, Switzerland, Center for theRecherche Analysis and Monitoring of Environmental Risk (AMRA), Napoli 80125, Italy, Veolia & Innovation, Avenue Dreyfous Daniel, 78520 Limay, France d c c University of Naples "Parthenope", Department of Science andSwitzerland, Technology, 80143, SCCER-SoE ETH Zurich,- IMT Zurich 8092, Département Systèmes Énergétiques et Environnement Atlantique, 4 rue AlfredNapoli Kastler, 44300Italy, Nantes, France e d Euro-Mediterranean Center on Climate Change (CMCC), Capua (CE)Napoli 81043,80143, Italy, Italy, University of Naples "Parthenope", Department of Science and Technology, f e University of Bologna, Department of Civil, Chemical, Environmental, and Materials Engineering, Bologna 40131, Italy, Euro-Mediterranean Center on Climate Change (CMCC), Capua (CE) 81043, Italy, g f Ministry of Economic Development, Directorate-general for safety of mining and activities (DGS-UNMIG), Roma 00187, University of Bologna, Department of Civil, Chemical, Environmental, and energy Materials Engineering, Bologna 40131, Italy, Italy, h g University of Pisa, Department ofof Earth Sciences, Pisa 56126, Italy Ministry of Economic Development, Directorate-general for safety mining and energy activities (DGS-UNMIG), Roma 00187, Italy, h Abstract University of Pisa, Department of Earth Sciences, Pisa 56126, Italy a
District heating networks are commonly addressed in the literature as one of the most effective solutions for decreasing the Abstract greenhouse gas emissions from the building sector. These systems require high investments which are returned through the heat Abstract sales. Due to the and changed climate conditions and building renovation policies, heat project, demandfunded in the by future could Ministry decrease, Analysis of natural anthRopoGenic risks on Offshore platforms (ARGO) is a 3-years the Italian prolonging the investment return period. Analysis of natural and anthRopoGenic on Offshore platforms (ARGO) Research is a 3-years project, funded by the Italian Ministry of Economic Development. The project, risks coordinated by AMRA , a permanent Centre for the development of innovative The main scope of thistopaper to assesscoordinated the feasibility of using heat demand – outdoor temperature functionofforofnatural heat demand of Economic Development. Theisproject, by AMRA , athe permanent Research Centre for the development innovative technologies applied environmental problems, aims at providing technical-support for analysis and forecast. The district of Alvalade, located in Lisbon (Portugal), was used as a case study. The district is consisted ofand 665 technologies applied to environmental problems, aims at providing technical-support for the analysis of natural anthropogenic risks on offshore oil-platforms. ARGO has developed methodologies for the probabilistic analysis of industrial buildingstriggered thatrisks varyby in natural both construction period andontypology. Three weather (low, high) and of three district anthropogenic on offshore oil-platforms. ARGO has developed methodologies the probabilistic analysis industrial accidents events (NA-TECH) offshore platforms. The scenarios final for analysis ofmedium, the ARGO Project suggest a renovation scenarios developed (shallow, deep). To using estimate the error, obtained heat demand were accidents triggered by natural events (NA-TECH) on offshore platforms. The high final analysis ofnetworks. the ARGO Projectvalues suggest a constant monitoring of were exploitation activity, fluids intermediate, re-injection and storage technology compared with results from a dynamic heat fluids demand model, previously developed andtechnology validated by the authors. constant monitoring of exploitation activity, re-injection and storage using high networks. results showed that when only weatherLtd. change is considered, the margin of error could be acceptable for some applications ©The 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier ©(the 2017 TheinAuthors. Published by Elsevier Ltd. error annual demand was lower than for all weather scenariosGeosciences considered).Union However, after introducing renovation © 2017 The Authors. Published by Ltd.20% Peer-review under responsibility of Elsevier the scientific committee of the European (EGU) General Assembly 2017 Peer-review under responsibility of theupscientific committee of the European Geosciences Unionscenarios (EGU) General Assembly scenarios, the error value increased to 59.5% (depending on the weather and renovation combination considered). Peer-review under responsibility ofthe theEnvironment scientific committee of the European Geosciences Union (EGU) General Assembly 2017 –2017 Division Energy, Resources and (ERE). –value Division Energy, Resources and the Environment (ERE).the range of 3.8% up to 8% per decade, that corresponds to the of slope coefficient on average within –The Division Energy, Resources andincreased the Environment (ERE). decrease Na-Tech; in the number of heating hours of 22-139h during the heating season (depending on the combination of weather and Keywords: multi-risk; offshore oil platforms; seismicity; meteo-marine extreme events. renovation scenarios considered). the other seismicity; hand, function intercept increased Keywords: Na-Tech; multi-risk; offshoreOn oil platforms; meteo-marine extreme events.for 7.8-12.7% per decade (depending on the coupled scenarios). The values suggested could be used to modify the function parameters for the scenarios considered, and improve the accuracy of heat demand estimations. © 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd. Peer-review under responsibility of the Scientific Committee of The 15th International Symposium on District Heating and * Corresponding author. Tel.: +39-089-96-8208; fax: +39-089-96-9658. Cooling.
* Corresponding Tel.: +39-089-96-8208; fax: +39-089-96-9658. E-mail address:author. [email protected] E-mail address: [email protected] Keywords: Heat demand; Forecast; Climate change 1876-6102 © 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd. 1876-6102 © 2017 Authors. Published Elsevier committee Ltd. Peer-review underThe responsibility of theby scientific of the European Geosciences Union (EGU) General Assembly 2017
under responsibility theEnvironment scientific committee –Peer-review Division Energy, Resources andofthe (ERE). of the European Geosciences Union (EGU) General Assembly 2017 – Division Energy, Resources and the Environment (ERE). 1876-6102 © 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd. Peer-review under responsibility of the Scientific Committee of The 15th International Symposium on District Heating and Cooling. 1876-6102 © 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd. Peer-review under responsibility of the scientific committee of the European Geosciences Union (EGU) General Assembly 2017 – Division Energy, Resources and the Environment (ERE). 10.1016/j.egypro.2017.08.148
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Paolo Capuano et al. / Energy Procedia 125 (2017) 145–152 Capuano et al. / Energy Procedia 00 (2017) 000–000
1. Introduction Within the framework of scientific collaborations on the offshore safety promoted by the “Italian Ministry of Economic Development-Directorate-General for safety of mining and energy activities” (DGS-UNMIG), AMRA has made available its expertise regarding the possibility of developing a quantitative approach for multi-risk assessments. This was achieved by the analysis of a wide range of risk sources (Fig. 1).
Fig. 1. Identification of possible environment where triggering sequences of events that can lead to accidents on offshore platforms can occur.
This method, taking into account possible scenarios of interaction and the cascading effects of accidents, ensure the possibility to define in terms of probabilities, the expected hazard. The multi-risk approach developed within the ARGO project (Analysis of natural and anthRopoGenic risks on Offshore platforms) is based on a case study in the offshore of the Adriatic Sea, as well as essential data provided by Edison S.p.A (Italian energy company). Project findings, described in the following sections, led to the formulation of a set of recommendations to ensure an appropriate monitoring useful to the definition of risks analysis for the offshore platforms. 2. Activities and results The ARGO Project had two main objectives: 1) Development of methodologies to analyze natural and anthropogenic risks for protection and safety of oil and gas offshore platforms; 2) Provide technical support for the elaboration of recommendations resulting from project findings. The selected case studies have been focused on three areas of the Adriatic Sea (Fig. 2): two gas extraction sites (San Giorgio Mare and Santo Stefano Mare) and one oil extraction site (Rospo Mare). Within the ARGO Project was also carried out an assessment of the environmental effects of the water reinjection at the site of the Santa Maria Mare.
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Fig. 2. The ARGO Project case studies. INGV DISS 3.2.0 of DISS Working Group [1] composite seismogenic sources are also showed.
The study initially focused the definition of the case studies and the identification of necessary data for analysis, with particular reference to: meteo-marine data, atmospheric – circulation model, operational characteristics of the platforms and production data, historical offshore accidents documentation, geological and structural data, seismic lines, reservoir characteristics, images from remote sensors. The following phase consisted in the collection of all the kind of data available for the study area at the archive of the DGS-UNMIG [2] and from scientific and technical literature. Finally, specific workflows for the defined project aims have been developed. In order to achieve these objectives, the project activities were divided into six macroactivities. Results are illustrated in the following section. 2.1. Determination of risk related to meteo-marine extreme events, considering the effects of climate change scenarios. The aim of this activity was to characterize the study area from the meteo-marine point of view by analyzing historical and instrumental data such as sea level, atmospheric pressure, temperature of the sea and air, relative humidity and wind speed. Subsequently, it was carried out the correlation analysis between the meteomarine instrumental data and the atmospheric model data (RCM); this analysis showed significant correlations between instrumental and model data for the parameter “air temperature” in all study areas. Further significant correlations identified refer to the maximum wind speed. Finally, it was performed an analysis for the extreme events for different scenarios [3], [4] of climate change (RCP scenarios - Representative Concentration Pathways of the IPCC RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) in order to identify possible anomalies for the local climate [5], with particular attention to “maximum wind velocity” (Fig. 3) and “daily accumulated rainfall”. In Figure 3 appear rather evident that the hazard curves (median), obtained for projections (near and far future) show higher values than the curve obtained for the historical reference period. However, considering the uncertainties in the estimates, the values are higher for the low return periods (up to 10 years), while for the highest return periods, the uncertainties are much wider, and therefore the comparison becomes more uncertain.
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Fig. 3. Example of hazard curves for the daily maximum wind speed in the area of San Giorgio Mare. Comparison between the historical reference time and projection, considering the RCP4.5 scenario.
2.2. Assessment of systemic vulnerabilities and of the main structural elements of the offshore platforms to meteomarine events. The objective of this activity was to characterize the vulnerability of the offshore platforms with respect to the occurrence of meteo-marine extreme events using fragility curves (for types of platforms) that provide the probability of exceeding a certain threshold of damage. For this purpose, the different type of offshore production platforms and the structural elements that characterize it were defined, paying particular attention to fixed platforms, the category to which belong the studied Edison platforms. The study framed the European and national regulatory environment, in particular in reference to the standards used in the design of the offshore platforms in response to extreme natural events (i.e. API RP 2A and ISO 19900 series). It was carried out an historical analysis on damages observed in past, caused by extreme meteomarine events [6]. Furthermore, historical data adopted to assess the vulnerability of the offshore platforms, have been described. After many industrial accidents related to offshore oil platforms caused by extreme weather events in the last years, it is of uppermost importance to perform a detailed assessment on incidental dynamics in oil and gas production areas. The study also included a data collection phase on the structural characteristics and layout of all the sensitive plants present on the studied platforms, with particular attention to the Santo Stefano Mare platform. 2.3. Coastline evolution analysis near the offshore platforms. The study focused on the analysis of possible deformation of the coastline in front of the studied offshore platforms by using DInSAR. In particular, the activities were focused on the evaluation and analysis of deformation
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using SBAS-DInSAR of images acquired by Envisat satellite in the period 2002-2010 from ascending orbit, producing velocity maps and deformation time-series (Fig. 4). The low resolution spatial processing showed no deformation phenomena taking place in the period of observation, in the coastal area in front of the San Giorgio Mare platform, while the deformation time series in the vicinity of the Santo Stefano Mare offshore platform show a trend of about 4 cm subsidence in the time interval 2002-2010. In the case of Rospo Mare was not possible to detect any subsidence, due to the high signal inconsistency reflected from the site.
Fig. 4. Geocoded Map of average deformation velocity in LOS (cm/year), estimated at low spatial resolution and superimposed to an image of Google Earth of San Giorgio Mare area. The image refers to the elaboration of ENVISAT data acquired from ascending orbits in the period 20022010.
2.4. Triggered/Induced seismicity analysis. In order to carry out the geological-structural and seismotectonic characterization of the study area [7], it was performed the analysis of confidential data, seismic reflection profiles and well data, granted by Edison S.p.A.. In parallel, was carried out a study of historical seismicity (1000-1980), and of instrumental seismicity (since 1980 to present) (Fig. 5) by using data of the INGV (CPTI Working Group [8] and ISIDe database [9]). Figure 5 shows the epicenters localizations in the study area for M > 2. Is evident the existence of poor, low energy, seismicity (3 ≤ M ≤ 4.0) in the northern portion of the analyzed area, where is possible to highlight the existence of a small cluster in proximity of central Adriatic Sea [10], [11]. Along Abruzzo-Molise Apennine, near the Gargano Promontory and in proximity of the Tremiti Islands were identified others low- to middle-energy clusters.
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Fig. 5. Instrumental seismicity (2005-2016) of the study area.
2.5. Environmental impact studies of industrial accidents on offshore platforms. The study focused on the collection and analysis of the main methods used by public authorities, by nongovernmental organizations, and trade associations operating in the main western countries, for purposes of monitoring, analysis and assessment of accident risks arising from mining activities, with particular reference to releases of hazardous substances from offshore platforms [12]. The comparison between the different evaluation impact models is a prerequisite to built a methodology for the Italian case, starting from a database of environmental impacts and major accidents occurred on the oil & gas platforms and to the definition of studied asset danger level. We summarize the methods produced by the: International Association of Oil & Gas Producers (OGP) [13], the American Petroleum Institute (API), the Det Norske Veritas (DNV), the Health & Safety Executive (HSE) [14] and by the Norwegian Petroleum Safety Agency (PSA). The analysis of the WOAD database (World Offshore Accident Dataset) enabled the assessment of offshore accidents occurred at global and national levels. In order to get a useful result to classify these accidents, highlighting the causes and effects, have been extrapolated data on Italians accidents, those relating to accidents caused by global weather events that have determined containment releases or fires and those caused by earthquakes and volcanic eruptions. The WOAD database data on NA-TECH accidents on oil & gas platforms were reorganized in terms of Key Performance Indicators (KPI) according to the HSE scheme, chosen as analysis system. The result obtained refers just to the scenarios described, to define the level of release (whether gas oil), and then the corresponding value of the KPI.
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2.6. Implementing multihazard and multi-risk models for the integral evaluation of NA-TECH risks on offshore platforms. AMRA in the frame of this activity has developed a multi-hazard/risk methodology [15], [16], based on the bowtie approach (this is a graphical tool to support the representation of accident scenarios, starting from the cause of the accident to the consequences) and Bayesian techniques for data analysis. Thanks to this method, it is possible to analyze the probability of accidents occurrence on offshore platforms and their potential impact, taking into account uncertainties, and considering a wide range of natural and anthropic events. The methodology was applied to some of the platforms of San Giorgio Mare field in order to assess the probability of gas spill considering nine different paths used events tree (Fig. 6).
Fig. 6. Example of scenarios of events that can lead to hydrocarbon leak/spill.
3. Conclusion The final analysis of the ARGO Project has led to the expression of a series of recommendations, among which one of the most significant involved a constant monitoring of exploitation activity, fluid re-injection and storage through the use of high technology networks. Such networks should be designed to follow the evolution in space and time of microseismic activity, of soil deformation, of the pore pressure and of major meteo-marine parameters. Such networks should be operated before launching new activities, in order to evaluate the natural seismicity conditions, of ground deformation, of meteo-marine parameters and of downhole pressures in "unperturbed" conditions. Acknowledgements This study was financially supported by the “Progetto MISE-ARGO: Analisi dei Rischi naturali e AntropoGenici delle piattaforme petrolifere Offshore”, based on the agreement between AMRA Scarl and DGS-UNMIG of Ministry of Economic Development of Italy. The authors thank EDISON S.p.A. for providing data for the development of the project.
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