The clients for agrometeorological information

Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 103 (2000) 27–42

The clients for agrometeorological information D. Rijks a,∗ , M.W. Baradas b,1 a

Agrometeorological Applications Associates, B.P. 102, F-01213 Ferney-Voltaire Cedex, France b Philippine Rice Research Institute, College, Laguna, Philippines

Abstract This paper deals with the clients that may use agrometeorological information. The sections treat the possible identities of the clients, the nature of the information products that they may request, the products that an agrometeorological unit can provide, the manner of delivery of the product, and the evaluation of the value of the product to the client. A fair amount of agrometeorological knowledge is, or can relatively easily be made available, but far from all is used. If agrometeorological information is communicated to the right client and applied, agrometeorology can help find ‘windows of opportunity’ to practise sustainable, high quality agriculture more profitably, with less risks, less cost, and less environmental pollution and damage. Such an application requires a concerted and interdisciplinary approach, whether by the public service or by a commercial firm, to offer the agrometeorological product to the client. The reward may be great, because clients may persist for a very long time and useful products may have an incalculably fruitful outcome. Such is proven by the agrometeorological information for the control of potato blight (Phytophthora infestans), now supplied to potato farmers all over the world: a single agrometeorological information product, steadily perfected, and persistently used for more than a lifetime of man, having positively affected untold millions of lives. © 2000 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved. Keywords: Agrometeorology; Clients; Information products; Information delivery; Benefits of information

1. Introduction The purpose of the WMO Agricultural Meteorology Programme, formulated in the draft for the 5th Long Term Plan (5LTP) is “. . . to help develop sustainable and economical viable agricultural systems" and “. . . to improve production and quality, reduce losses and risks, decrease costs, increase efficiency in the use of water . . . , labour and energy, conserve natural resources, combat drought and desertification and decrease pollution by agricultural chemicals or other

∗ Corresponding author. Fax: +33-4-50-40-8842. E-mail address: [email protected] (D. Rijks) 1 Visiting Scientist (Agrometeorology).

agents that contribute to the degradation of the environment" (WMO, 1997). Monteith (1993) formulated the subject as a question, that he considered more urgent now than before: “How can the skills we have developed in operational, experimental and theoretical aspects of agricultural meteorology be more effectively integrated and deployed to make production in systems of agriculture and forestry more reliable, more efficient and above all more equitable in the world at large". A National Meteorological or other agrometeorological service can contribute to the national economy, and best obtain recognition and remuneration for the investments made in agricultural meteorology, through the effective use of the information by the agricultural community in the widest sense. The measure of suc-

0168-1923/00/$ – see front matter © 2000 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved. PII: S 0 1 6 8 - 1 9 2 3 ( 0 0 ) 0 0 1 1 6 - 7

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cess can be obtained through the appreciation, in whatever form, by this community of the services rendered. As one of the first steps, it should identify the ‘clients’, their requirements, and their evaluation of the value of the ‘products’ delivered and then offer the desired product to the client in the most appropriate manner. The delivery of the products relies on the availability of a readily accessible data base, the knowledge of, and access to, an ‘inventory’ of possible application techniques, an infrastructure (trained personnel and the physical means) to produce the products, and an appropriate product dissemination system. The fine-tuning of the process requires a continuous feedback on the technical, environmental and economic benefits of the system. Improvements in agricultural production may well occur first where the efficiency of the inputs into agriculture is highest. Such inputs are of different nature: genetic material, energy, water, adapted use of the soil and of the landscape and plant nutrients, management, and of course the weather. Of all those inputs only the weather is free of charge (Baradas, 1978), and its influence has been, perhaps because of that reason, relatively little exploited (Rijks, 1991). User-tailored weather information for planning, adaptation of the system, and day-to-day operations involving the dosage and timing of application of inputs, is one of the major factors that can increase the efficiency of these measures and help to reduce the risks on the investments made. This aspect defines one group of clients. Another group is involved in general matters or in activities that precede or follow after production has been achieved: marketing, processing, consumer orientation, legal and administrative matters and environmental issues. The relation with the client takes into account: • A description of the basic factors determining the atmospheric environment for agriculture (solar radiation, temperatures, water availability in all its forms, humidity, the wind regime and other characteristics, such as weather ‘hazards’); • A description of the requirements for each application and client; • A quantitative formulation of the relationships that exist in respect of the effects of weather on vegetation, soil, open water and animals and the reciprocal effects of these ‘surfaces’ on their atmospheric environment; and

• A process to ‘match’ the requirements of the users to the meteorological conditions that may exist, to optimize the use of all the resources provided by the weather and the other inputs and to minimize the influence of adverse conditions (Rijks, 1986). While at one time the meteorological community may have made a distinction between the use of weather and of climate information, a farmer makes many decisions by combined use of the two (Rijks, 1984): Climate choice of farming system choice of crops choice of optimal variety choice of farm equipment choice of row width choice of irrigation choice of pest control system

Weather timing, extent of land preparation, land layout date of planting choice of alternative variety actual use of equipment; day-to-day farming operation within-row distance of plants timing and amount of water given timing and extent of controls

Agrometeorology can play its role if the clients perceive that its products have increased the value of their agricultural production (potential), and made actual production approach the potential at equal cost of inputs. In short, clients must feel that they are customers ‘buying the best deal’. Appendix A shows an example of various meteorological products from Malaysia, their uses and clients (Baradas, 1992). These and other subjects will be elaborated in the following paragraphs.

2. Who are the clients 2.1. Definition The statement of the purpose of the 5LTP (quoted in the introduction) defines implicitly a majority of the ‘clients’ for the information. They may be found in different major groups, even though, if

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one wishes to provide effective service, each client must be considered unique in respect of his or her requirements. The agrometeorologist should know these clients and their goals: • Is the clients’ interest in benefits in the economic, social, security, sustainability, environment, leisure, or other domains? • Is the client a policy maker, a monitoring agent, or a practising producer, etc.? • Can the client ‘pay’ individually for the product, or will remuneration come through a collectivity, e.g. a Chamber of Agriculture, a commodity agency, a marketing unit, etc.?

2.2. The profile of the client The initial client may be the applied meteorologist who is acting as a client of the data-management meteorologist. To facilitate the work of preparing information, and to explain its reason and justification to third parties, the product that is desired and that can be ‘marketed’ should be defined clearly. So also should the use that can be made of it, and the benefit that may arise from its use. The client may be another section of one’s own meteorological service, asking for an analysis of data. It may be a government service or a non-government service, an information dissemination unit, such as a local radio. It may be a farmer or a group of farmers or a farmers organization, a plant or animal health protection, forestry or livestock service, a fertilizer company or a soil conservation group. Other clients may be the Ministry of Agriculture or the Ministry of Planning, e.g. for the development of sustainable agriculture, for warnings on alarm situations, bush and forest fires, locust control, for drought alleviation measures, flood control, the planning of the movement of stocks of food or seeds. It may be an interest in a national (Baradas and Sutrisno, 1981) or international crop monitoring activity, such as that of the FEWS group (Famine Early Warning System) in the US (FEWS, 1998), the MARS/SAI group (Monitoring Agriculture with Remote Sensing/Space Applications Institute) of the Joint Research Centre of the European Union (Vossen and Rijks, 1995), an Embassy, a marketing or a post-harvest crop

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management service, an entity engaged in the conservation of the environment, or any other kind of ‘customer’. 2.3. Identification of the client To identify the clients in agricultural, livestock husbandry or forestry activities, it is useful to contact the relevant Ministries, the ‘Chambers of Agriculture’ or equivalent units, the commodity institutes, or the district agricultural and lifestock services. The identification of the client, and of the product(s) she/he requires, can be made through a process of listening to the requirements of persons in other disciplines, and through a dialogue about the issues or problems in their work, points that could make their work safer, easier, more efficient, more reliable, etc. In some cases one finds that the prospective client does not know that agrometeorology has a useful product to offer. Talking with her/him about those aspects of the work that are sensitive to meteorology may make her/him aware of whether she/he could profit from being a customer or not. As a salesperson an agrometeorologist must know the products, described in the clients’ language, that can be ‘sold’ as if the client is a commercial customer, who must be satisfied in order to remain a client. Finally, a meteorological service may ‘discover’ new clients, through a continuing dialogue with representatives of different spheres of the agricultural community and through the development of new concepts in the application of agrometeorology.

3. What does the client require 3.1. Possible products Possible products fall into different groups: • Basic data; • Basic data together with an analysis and/or an advisory message for specific applications, possibly combined with non-meteorological data, such as those derived from remote sensing; • Methods, techniques, software packages for specific applications.

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3.2. Basic data Basic data should be presented in an easily interpretable form, the ultimate format and use of which is left to the choice of the client. Apart from the elementary observations, their sums and totals, it can consist of individual or combined probabilities of various meteorological parameters, extreme values, distributions in time or in space, and coincident occurrence of certain values of different parameters (e.g. temperature and humidity). 3.3. Basic data plus further-analyzed products These are basic data accompanied by worked-up data and/or an advisory message that put the basic data into a specific-application-oriented perspective. There is a great number of such products, some of which are described here: • The probability of rainfall for crop water balance calculations to plan the agricultural system and to assess the possible length of the rainfed cropping season (Manning, 1956; Rijks, 1976), and to decide on agricultural activities or processes for different crops, such as accessibility of the fields, land preparation, sowing, germination, weeding, thinning, ridging to prevent lodging, supplemental irrigation, fertilizer application, crop protection measures, ripening, harvesting and post-harvesting operations such as drying and storage (e.g. Traore et al., 1992; Direction Nationale de la Météorologie, 1998). • Information for longer-term, infrastructural, measures like land-layout for erosion control and soil conservation, intercropping systems, contour-ridging for the conservation and use of water (Rijks, 1977). Similar information is needed for the study of relations in catchment management and for planning of irrigation system layout and similar studies. • Information about (extreme) low or high temperature regimes and their duration and localization, that affect the development and growth of crops and animals, and in some cases the state of the infrastructure serving agriculture, the frequency of the risk of occurrence of frost, or of heat stress for crops and livestock. • Information about solar radiation and sunshine hours, for the calculation of photosynthesis, crop

growth, evapotranspiration, crop drying, and for applications in the sphere of the agricultural infrastructure and operations, like the construction of animal shelters, animal health care or for farm energy generation and conservation. • Some of these latter activities also can benefit from better information about humidity and wind regimes. Furthermore, information on humidity is a major element in the assessment of the risk of occurrence of crop diseases and some crop pests. Low humidity may inhibit fertilization during flowering. • Wind regimes may influence lodging, and thus perhaps the need for ridging, the movement of crop and animal pests and their control. Extreme winds may cause significant damage to fruit trees (Mellaart et al., 1999). Information on wind regimes is essential for the construction of windbreaks and the establishment of fire-breaks in bush- and forest-fire control. • Particular aspects of the information required in the livestock industry include the assessment of the potential pasture productivity, of the seasonal food and water supply and quality, assessment of the risk of overgrazing or of bushfires, hay making, housing, animal health and productivity, the introduction of highly-productive species and the drying with solar energy of meat and fish. • The use of energy, one of the most expensive recurrent inputs in agriculture, is dependent on meteorological information, among others, to become efficient and economically viable. • The practice of agricultural aviation, for sowing, fertilizer application and surveying in addition to crop protection, requires (agro)meteorological information for the assessment of the needs and the potential benefit of an intervention, as well as for the application operations. • Food security programmes require (agro)meteorological inputs to the crop monitoring activities, and livestock services inputs to the modelling of potential production of natural grazing areas, which in turn may have an effect on transhumance. Other clients may, in relation to studies of the effects of climate variability, or in crop monitoring and yield forecasting procedures, need the outlook, the ‘scenarios’ that could occur (and their probability),

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following different (agro)meteorological or general weather events. A longstanding client, whose product requirements are constantly evolving, is the agricultural research community, composed of the staff of regional, national and international institutes. It is one of the communities in which a significant number of persons are well aware of the benefits of use of agrometeorological information, and it is a client that can help a national agrometeorological service to promote and expand the field of application of the product delivered. One of the products used for the application of results of research is the agro-meteorological characterization of regions (FAO, 1978; Rijks, 1994). Some other examples are: • Quantitative values (maximum, optimum, minimum) of the relevant parameters for different crops: (a) of factors that define maximum production temperature, solar radiation (b) of factors that may limit production: the water balance, conditions for nutrient uptake, for weeding, etc (c) of factors that reduce production: pests and diseases; • Quantitative values (maximum, optimum, minimum) of the relevant parameters of models of development of pests and diseases (Franquin and Rijks, 1983) and of migrant pests (Rainey et al., 1990); • Information on weather factors (water balance, temperature and humidity regimes, daylength, etc.) that help with the selection of varieties adapted to the varability of the length of season; • Parameters dealing with the choice and use of farm machinery, fertilizer applications, pest and disease management; • Information to implement measures of microclimate manipulation and modification (Stigter, 1988, 1994); • Information on the probability of certain conditions of solar radiation, temperature and water availability for the development of intercropping and multiple cropping systems, so that natural inputs are exploited optimally; • Information for planning the feasibility and efficiency of on-farm water storage facilities (Baradas and Sutrisno, 1981); • Information required for planning agroforestry plantations and for the establishment and management of windbreaks;

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• Conditions for the selection of different forest species, their establishment, the risk and incidence of forest pests and diseases, information on the risk and for the forecasting of bush and forest fires and for forest fire management practices; • Assessment of the solar and wind energy potential. The major clients in the commercial sector, e.g. the processing of food and fiber, have long since established their own structure for obtaining, in the most timely manner, the agrometeorological information required. Analysis of the methods used in the sugar, cocoa, coffee, banana processing industries, to name but a few, may enable an agrometeorological service to provide similarly useful information to clients outside these major production companies. Some other examples are: • Climatic, probability and forecast information for the planning of irrigation systems, risks of water shortages, optimization of the water use efficiency (the ratio of yield per unit water), information for day-to-day scheduling irrigation scheduling models, using real-time data and forecasts (e.g. Rijks and Gbeckor-Kove, 1990; Friesland et al., 1998; Smith, 2000); • Information to foresee the optimum time for harvesting (e.g. of vine-grapes, Gerbier and Remois, 1977; Strydom, 1999); • Information for the improvement of storage conditions (e.g. of groundnuts in Gambia, Rijks, 1987); • Information of the risk of occurrence of weather hazards for crops and animals, hail, frost, hot dry winds that may cause sterilization of pollen, floods, droughts etc; • Information on meteorological factors that affect the efficiency of energy inputs into agriculture, whether the energy be of fossil, human, animal, mechanical, thermal, solar (electrical) or chemical nature, through a choice of optimum timing and amount of such inputs. As regards the social, economic and legal aspects of agriculture, clients can be policy making (or implementing) organizations, representatives of development banks and agencies, technical cooperation organizations, research groups and institutes, or organizations dealing with sustainable development, ecosystem management and environmental issues, wishing to consider the use of meteorological information in their

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decision making processes. Among the subjects that command more and more attention by these clients is the use of meteorological information to promote the efficiency of the use of water and energy, the reduction of pollution and the conservation of the environment. Some further examples are: • Weather forecasts following food situation assessments made with real-time data, to help determine the food security outlook; • Information for the monitoring, and possible forecast, of floods and droughts and for the alleviation of their effects; • Monitoring of desertification, avoidance of overgrazing, salinization, wind- and water-erosion; • Information for wildlife conservation and management. 3.4. Methods, techniques, software packages for specific applications For clients that wish to operate their own daily information service, agrometeorological services may be asked to provide tested software packages (or parts thereof), such as those for the calculation of the water balance, for the monitoring and control of some pests and diseases, or for crop growth monitoring. Another much-demanded product is a reference data bank for comparing actual data with the mean, with those of the last year or those of any other period.

4. Some products that an agrometeorological service can offer 4.1. Products available Meteorological services offer a series of products, ranging from basic data (observed at a worldwide homogeneous network of stations, using a common methodology), through elementary-derived data, composite-derived data, to meteorological forecasts and client-specific products. A characteristic of many of these products is that they are often rather elementary, but usually quality-controlled, and that they can serve in the way they are made available, often without further transformation or adaptation. Meteorological Services can also offer a number of well-proven methods, techniques, software packages

and expertise in data analysis and product development (see Section 3.4). Finally, meteorological services are often a partner of the agricultural services in the development, description and use of the relations between meteorological regimes and agricultural phenomena. 4.2. Basic data The products offered include those obtained from INFOCLIMA, an inventory of available meteorological and associated data, and CLICOM, a widely used harmonised system for meteorological data management. Past basic data can be obtained from CLICOM or another national data bank, and when necessary basic data can be delivered to clients fairly easily and soon after the moment of observation through the GTS (Global Telcommunication System). Other basic data are obtained from automatic stations or interpreted from remotely sensed observations, either for their point value, their areal extent, or both. The basic meteorological data most often used in agrometeorology are observations of rainfall, sunshine, solar radiation, temperature (of the air, and sometimes of the soil and rarely of the water near its surface), humidity, and wind speed and direction. These basic data are derived from point observations, but not always without certain omissions in the time series. Packages are available that provide substitute values for missing observations (e.g. Meteoconsult, 1991), other packages can provide area-wide estimates based on consideration of a number of point-values (e.g. van der Voet et al., 1993), and others again provide values of one (missing) parameter by deduction from observations of other parameters (Rijks et al., 1998, and especially the annexes 1–14 by Augter, Choisnel, Gommes, Hough, Keane, LeMeur, Mata Reis, Oliveira, Parker, Seguin and Wendling). Other basic data concern the observations on the occurrence of hail, lightning and other difficult-toquantify phenomena that may nevertheless have an impact on agriculture or forestry. 4.3. Derived data Among the packages available, tested, user-friendly and rather widely used for transforming these ba-

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sic, hourly, three-hourly or daily observations, into ‘values’ of parameters that are more commonly used in agrometeorology, is the INSTAT (INteractive STATistics) package, developed by Stern and Knock (1998) at the University of Reading. It can give totals and means over various timespans (e.g. the maximum and minimum values of temperature, humidity, wind speed, sunshine hours, solar radiation and rainfall, calculated over the timespan desired by the client). It can also give distributions, extreme values, probabilities of occurrence at certain thresholds, and of combinations of values of different parameters (such as low humidity and high windspeed, etc.). Much used among these derived data are the values of rainfall distribution and probability, the probability of the beginning and the end of the rains, the probability of receipt of quantified rainfall amounts in a specified period, or of rain after a moment during the season when a certain amount has already been received. Further parameters are the values of potential evapo(transpi)ration, stress degree days, and duration of canopy wetness and curves for the amount-intensity-duration of rainfall. Many derived parameters rely on inputs from disciplines other than meteorology, such as soil science, plant/crop physiology or agronomy. Among these, the water balance is perhaps the most frequently calculated. Other examples are: • the probability of obtaining the optimal length of the growing season for a crop with specified growth characteristics; • the risk of the occurrence of drought or dry spells at the beginning, in the middle or at the end of the season; • the optimal timing for certain agricultural operations; and • the assessment of the need to have available alternative options, such as the choice of other varieties or crops. Consideration of some of these may give rise to alerts, warnings or alarms (Keane et al., 1998). Special mention should be made of the practical uses of the water balance information in the planning, implementation, monitoring and forecasting aspects of agriculture. It is an essential tool in planning virtually all components of agricultural, lifestock and forestry production systems, including the manner of use of the other inputs, land-use, genetic material, energy in

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all its forms, management and economic and social aspects and results. As regards implementation, it is used in scheduling soil preparation, sowing, weeding, thinning, ridging, fertilizer and pest and disease control measures, harvesting and drying. Efficiency of irrigation is fully dependent on the knowledge of the water balance and the outlook for its evolution. The water balance is one of the most ‘decisive’ components in a crop monitoring and yield forecasting system. Water balance information is used in the management of the food and water supply for livestock, animal health protection, and the transhumance. It is an essential tool in watershed and forestry management. 4.4. Agrometeorological surveys and characterization A number of such surveys has been completed in the 1960s and 1970s, mostly by the joint efforts of FAO, Unesco, WMO and later UNEP. These surveys were general assessments used for understanding the agrometeorology of regions where agricultural development was foreseen. They still retain this general value, but for practical planning purposes they were later complemented by agrometeorological classifications (FAO, 1978) or characterizations (Rijks, 1994), and they can be further refined using computer-based, remote sensing assisted, analyses, and such as those possible with the INSTAT package. 4.5. Forecasts There are two types of forecasts used in agrometeorological applications (Rijks, 1978): • purely meteorological forecasts of expected weather and its consequences on agriculture; and • forecasts of the agrometeorological and agricultural consequences of observed weather. They are very often used in conjunction. Forecasts of the first type are obtained from the forecast unit of the meteorological service. Its interpretation is normally the work of an (agro)meteorologist, or better, of a pluridisciplinary agro-meteorological group. In some cases, such as the Agromet on-line individual advisory products in Germany (Dommermuth, 1999), these forecasts are regularly updated and contain specific agrometeorological prognosis data, and even advisories on hail derived from remotely

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sensed data. Das (1999) mentions a growing interest in the issue of seasonal forecasts. Currently most skill in seasonal forecasting is achieved in the tropics and subtropics and is especially high in El Nino years (Ogallo et al., 2000). In France, farmers can obtain forecasts that help them to practice ‘precision farming’ (Perarnaud and Hamelin, 1999). Forecasts of the second type emanate usually from an interdisciplinary team, including a meteorologist, an agronomist, a lifestock husbandry specialist, a plant/animal health officer, a communications specialist, a representative of the research community and perhaps others. The forecast product delivered to the clients may consist of information for scheduling day-to-day agricultural operations (Baradas, 1982, 1984, 1985) often after consideration of the ongoing agricultural season, in the light of known results of earlier research. It can also serve to formulate alerts, warnings and alarms on a technical, social or economic level. Plant protection services (e.g. for desert locust control) and crop monitoring and yield forecast teams provide further examples of interdisciplinary cooperation to use forecasts. 4.6. Remotely-sensed data Among the meteorological products of remotelysensed data are: • the assessments of components of the radiation regime (with or without reference to the underlying surfaces); • the surface temperature and by deduction some estimate of the air temperature near the surface; • wind and airmass movement; • estimates of the time and areal extent of the occurrence of rainfall, drought, flooding, and of frosts. Such information is rarely provided as a finished product to the clients. Often it is used to complement the purely meteorological products, or delivered in combination with other remotely-sensed products, such as information on soil wetness, land or vegetation cover (NDVI), likely presence of pests and/or diseases, estimates of the areal coverage of irrigated or flood-retreat crops, incidence of bush fires, etc. By the nature of their capacity to indicate the probable areal extent of a condition, and of the still very rapid evolution of the parameters that can be measured or derived, remotely-sensed data and their derived

products will be a growing resource for the supply of agrometeorological products to clients. 4.7. Results of research Most agrometeorological research is done in an interdisciplinary context. Results can be made available to users in all concerned disciplines. Agrometeorological services can take an active role in this dissimination and in the promotion of the use of these results. Some examples are the results of studies of the relationships of water shortage on crop performance, pest and disease incidence on crops and animals, relations between meteorology and the ‘performance’ of the (agro-)environment.

5. How to approach the client 5.1. Introductory remarks The approach to the client relies on the establishment of regular contacts, perhaps informally at first and institutionalized later. The meteorologist can ‘search’ for a client by analyzing the agricultural environment and production processes, having an eye for the ‘market’ for possible applications and suggesting existing products, or initializing the development of new concepts of products. The process can start with a dialogue on the clients’ work, discussing each step in the agricultural production process and the effect of weather factors on these steps. An assessment of the possibility that agrometeorological information products can realistically increase the efficiency of the steps may also be made. Such a discussion can deal with the factors that determine the highest possible rate of production, limit production or reduce production below levels already established (see Section 3.3). A discussion of aspects or problems of their work related to meteorological phenomena, could than lead to a joint definition of the agro-meteorological product that is needed. Such a dialogue requires that the agro-meteorologist has as great as possible a knowledge about the products that the service can offer or develop. The product may require the joint provision of input data, hence a joint data collection programme, joint analysis of

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the data and joint formulation of the message in a user-adapted language. Before a decision is made to furnish a product to the client, consideration should be given to the possibility that the client can effectively manage the use of the product. The technology should be of realistic service to the client. 5.2. Suggesting the nature of the product required by the client Often, a combined use of climatological, observed and forecast inputs is sought by the client, and the relative reliability of each component should be identified. There are several types of responses that one may obtain, when talking to a prospective client: • The client has all information products needed. In this case one may wish to use the experience of the client to document oneself on the established benefits of the use of (agro)meteorological information and use the knowledge for a possible enlargement of the package or extension to other clients; • The client knows what information is needed, and may or may not, or may only in part, already obtain it; one can study with the client whether one can supply the (additional) information in a more timely or more efficient manner; • The client does not really, or only vaguely, know how meteorological information can help him; only by going, together, step by step, through the work or production process can one identify areas where meteorology might be of use and where the benefits of provision of information could be examined. One may wish to identify whether the interest of the client goes in particular to matters of economy, social values, security, sustainability, environment, leisure, etc. If it is economy, is the emphasis on net return, gross inputs etc? One may have to make a ‘user sensitivity analysis’ and to assess (and communicate) the value to the client of the information product supplied. 5.3. The communication of the product If available, the dissemination of the product should, if at all possible, use established and accepted channels, including the most modern ones such as telephone, fax, internet, file transfer protocol (ftp), and TV-video text (Krueger, 1999).

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When the principal user of meteorological information was the aviation pilot, the aspect of communication was solved by face-to-face contact between persons familiar with each other’s job. That situation has changed. If the information requested is of a climatological nature, dissemination in written form and according to a format specified in consultation with the client is often appropriate. When real-time information is asked for by a user whose work details are only superficially known to the meteorologist, such as in agricultural practises or crop protection, a successful solution may be found through the creation of a formal or an informal interdisciplinary working group. As an example, in Mali (Diarra, 1999) and Sierra Leone (Pratt, 1999), representatives of the meteorological, agricultural research, agricultural extension and crop protection services hold weekly or bi-weekly meetings with representatives of agricultural development and rural radio services to discuss the nature and even the wording of advice to farmers. This advice is then brought to the farmers by rural radio (WMO, 1992) and if necessary complemented by the local staff of the extension service. Some farmers that have demonstrated an understanding of the relative reliability of the elements in the information and their spatial variability, have agreed to participate in an evaluation programme, providing feedback and elements for improvements. Thus interdiciplinary collaboration facilitates the use of information that, if not presented in a user-adapted format, might well go unused (Rijks, 1989). The information to be disseminated can consist of: • monitoring statements; • forecasts of developments relative to a certain phenomenon or operation; • elements of risk assessment; • information on the opportunity of agricultural management or control measures. It can be disseminated in the form of: • messages sent directly to a client (government, user group, etc.); • bulletins; • press articles; • radio messages; • TV presentations; • telephone reply messages; • interrogable expert systems; • e-mail;

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• messages distributed by agricultural or other extension services; • messages distributed by commodity services; • posters (in schools or local community halls). The choice of the channel, and of the ‘language’ used, has an influence on the efficiency of the use of the product. In certain cases, the emphasis may have to be laid on the ‘consequences’ of the use or the non-use of the product, rather than on the product itself. The monthly weather bulletin of Belize (National Meteorological Service Belize, 1998) is an example of a communication that is consistently aiming to reach a great spread of users in a user-adapted manner. In India a special effort is made to render advisories attractive and obtain feedback on their use (Shaka, 1999). Prudence or caution is required when ‘launching’ a new information product. Testing should be done in-house first, and next in collaboration with the client, who must be aware of the test-aspect of the operation. A successful example of such a procedure was the pilot project in Mali (Direction Nationale de la Météorologie, 1998).

6. Assessing the value of the product 6.1. Feedback A product has value only to the extent that it is being used to the clients’ satisfaction. Therefore, a feedback on the benefits that are derived from the decisions based on such use, whether they be technical, social, economic, environmental or other, must be obtained regularly. A feedback may consider whether the value resides in minimizing damage, risk or costs, or in maximizing output, net return or in enhancing the value of, or the possibility to exploit, other resources. Examples of the former can be found in the applications relative to the operations of the farming system (see Section 3), applications of the latter in the aspects of planning the farming system and adapting it optimally to the inputs of another nature, that are available. Quantified information on some of these examples is given by Rijks (1986, 1987). Munthali (1999) provides a summary of agrometeorological products, requested by users in Malawi, on which feedback can be received.

Feedback on the indirect benefits, that materialise in post-harvesting operations and agro-industrial procedures is also very significant. Feedback can sometimes be expressed in the manner of a diagram of costs and benefits (Roux, 1992), where the relative costs and benefits of the (in-)congruence between information supplied and reality can be expressed and more or less precisely quantified. Appendix B gives the example of an application in pest and disease control. Part A of Appendix B indicates a method of assessment of the success or failure of the forecast issued, part B identifies for each combination of forecast and reality the origin of costs and benefits (Rijks, 1992). An example of an economic analysis of the use by farmers and horticulturalists in the Netherlands of decision support systems for crop protection or irrigation management has been given by Molendijk (1999). 6.2. How will the product be paid for While one clearly must not frighten a potential client by matters of cost, one has to inform oneself, unobtrusively, on the way the reward for the product will materialize. Will there be a payment (or a contribution to costs) to the meteorological service, either by individual clients or through a collectivity (such as a commodity agency or a Chamber of Agriculture) or a marketing agency? Will there be a well-defined, well-expressed, recognition of the contribution of the product to the work of the client (such as a radio service, another Ministry, a government service, a national disaster relief effort, an international agency), that can justify the existence of a contribution on the national budget? In some economic systems this question is openly accepted, in others it must still be treated with care. A few examples of economic benefits are given: • In the Sudan Gezira irrigation scheme, the traditional crop sowing sequence is groundnut (June–July), dura (sorghum) (July), cotton (July–August), and finally wheat in November, to the extent that irrigation water remains available. In the early 1960s, the total area under wheat was established somewhat arbitrarily, so that in some years the amount of water was insufficient to properly irrigate all wheat fields, while in other years unused water flowed down the river. More recently,

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fairly precise calculations of the total water required by the cotton, sorghum and groundnut crops for the remainder of their growth cycle have been made in October, compared with the irrigation water available, and the remaining volume of water, and the potential area of wheat that could be irrigated correctly, was then calculated. The net effect has been that an average of about 20,000 acres have been grown under wheat in addition to the area grown earlier, adding about 20,000 T, or more than US$ 2M to the national economy. The cost of the calculations has been the time of a senior staff member for about 3 weeks, using available weather and hydrological data, or a total of a few thousand dollars (Rijks, 1991). • In Guadeloupe, banana plantations are treated with fungicide against Mycosphaerella musicola, the agent that causes the Sigatoka disease that can decimate production through leaf necrosis and decreased fruit quality (Fouré, 1987). In the past, a standard 25 aerial treatments were given throughout each year. Application of meteorological information to calculate the rate of development of the fungus and the subsequent need to treat the crop, has allowed a reduction in treatments from 25 to 19 in the worst years and from 25 to 6 in the best years. In the best years the resulting saving of 19 treatments meant a reduction in production costs of about US$ 800 per ha. In the worst years the saving was about US$ 250 per ha. For a plantation of 3500 ha the average of the savings amounted to more than US$ 1M annually, a multiple of the cost of the meteorological station and the data analysis (Rijks, 1987). • In the Gambia, farmers store their groundnuts often in heaps in the open air after harvest, until the buying agents pass to collect the crop. Such heaps can be seen up to 3 months after harvest, that is until January. Storage in the open air is favoured because it permits continuous ventilation with the relatively dry air. If the dry pods are subsequently wetted, the risk of contamination with Aspergillus flavus, and subsequent aflatoxin development, is great. The price of aflatoxin infected groundnuts is often as low as 60% of the price of good groundnuts, which is of the order of US$ 150 per ton. The total crop is of the order of 100,000 ton per year. During these months, unseasonal rain can occur if there is an incursion

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of polar air at altitude. Provision of weather information by local radio broadcasts can warn farmers for an impending chance of rain, so that they can temporarily cover the crop with plastic sheeting, saving about US$ 60 per ton. Nationally, thanks to such broadcasts, for each percent of the production saved, the benefit is US$ 60,000 (Rijks, 1987). • There are more than 1.5 million hectares of bush in the Sahel on which sheep and cattle graze. A great part of the bush burns every year. Observations of wind speed and direction, temperature and humidity can rapidly be analyzed, using a handheld computer or a circular slide rule (The Forest Research Institute, Canberra, Australia), to indicate the speed and direction of the movement of the fire, so that control burning can be undertaken at the proper place to stop the fire. A reduction of the burning on 1% of the area (15.000 ha) allows the grazing of 5000 additional sheep, or an annual value to the G.N.P. of about US$ 100,000 (Rijks, 1987). • Overgrazing eventually leads to lower levels of animal production and possibly desertification. Timely consideration of the limits of exploitation of fragile environments in semi-arid areas, especially of the soil and vegetation, as calculated with crop/vegetation models, can permit a planned maximum sustainable use, as a function of climate. With proper herd restrictions (e.g. through the preparation and sale of dried meat when herd reductions are required), a herd of n heads could be maintained in an area indefinitely. If overgrazing is allowed to occur, a herd of say 1.3n heads could perhaps graze for 3 years. After that, the sustainable herd size may drop to 0.5n heads or even less. After a 5-year period the restricted herd (10,000 heads×5 years=50,000 heads×years) would already be more economical than the uncontrolled herd (3×13,000+2×5000=49,000 head×years); in each subsequent year the economic gap grows, in addition to the long-term charge of restoring the land to its original productivity (Rijks, 1991). • Another example concerns food supply through coastal fishing. In Sierra Leone two seasons of storms occur, centered on March and October. During these months virtually no fishing boats go out, because of fear and uncertainty about the occurrence of storms, resulting in a forfeit of about 150 tons of fish per day. Analysis of past data shows that

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in each of these months daily forecasts can be made indicating the probability of occurrence of storms. The results show that a high probability exists for 7 days, absence of storms for 7 days, and uncertainty for the remaining 16 days. Fish that can be caught during the two times 7 days that no storms are forecast, amounts to 14×150 tons or an annual value of about US$ 400,000. The cost amounts to dissemination, on the local radio, of the client-oriented interpretation of a forecast that is in any case made daily for other purposes (Rijks, 1986). • Gerbier and Remois (1977) developed a method using meteorological information to determine each year the date for the harvest of grapes in the Champagne region in France, that results in optimum quality of the champagne at lowest harvesting costs. No economic data have been published by producers in respect of the use of such meteorological information, the only fact known is that one of the major houses finances the annual WMO Norbert Gerbier-Mumm prize. 6.3. The clients’ perception

and their interactions, and possible changes in climate variability and climate itself, require that a new balance be found in agricultural production. If communicated to the right client and applied, agrometeorology can help find ‘windows of opportunity’ to practise sustainable, high quality agriculture more profitably, with less risks, less cost, and less environmental pollution and damage. Such an application requires a concerted and interdisciplinary approach to offer the agrometeorological product to the client. The reward may be great, because clients may persist for a very long time and useful products may have an incalculably fruitful outcome. Such is proven by the agrometeorological information for the control of potato blight (Phytophthora infestans) (e.g. Bourke, 1955, 1957), now supplied to potato farmers all over the world: a single agrometeorological information product, steadily perfected, and persistently used for more than a lifetime of man, having positively affected untold millions of lives. Acknowledgements

Clients cannot be forced to accept products, but they can be enticed. Subsequently they must remain convinced by the benefits provided by the product. If satisfied, a client may give publicity for a product better than a meteorologist can do. 7. Conclusions A fair amount of agrometeorological knowledge is, or can relatively easily be made available, but far from all is used. Yet, an increase in the population of men and animals, the changes in the requirements and conditions of life of man, animals and plant populations

Contributions for this chapter were received from: H.P. Das; B. Diarra; H. Dommermuth; R. Krueger; E.A.R. Mellaart, J. Kruger, M. Holmes and N. Human; M. Molendijk; G.K. Munthali; V. Perarnaud and O. Hamelin; J.T.O. Pratt; S.K. Shaka; J. Strydom. The authors wish to thank the reviewers for the comments received on the draft of this paper. Appendix A The agrometeorological products, their uses and clients in Malaysia (Baradas, 1992) are given in Table 1.

Table 1 Agrometeorological products, their uses and clients in Malaysia, (Baradas, 1992) Agromet products

Their uses

Clients

Meteorological criteria (return period etc.) for designing rain reservoirs and drainage systems Meteorological criteria for irrigation design Agroclimatic maps

Controlling flood soil and water conservation

Department of agriculture commodity agencies and farmers

Controlling drought Controlling flood, drought and wind damage by avoiding disaster-prone times and/or areas

As above As above

D. Rijks, M.W. Baradas / Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 103 (2000) 27–42

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Table 1 (Continued) Agromet products

Their uses

Clients

Cropping calendar

Minimizing flood, drought and wind damage to crops by adjusting planting date Minimizing wind damage to crops

As above

Minimizing rain interference in rubber tapping Minimizing waste of fertilizer due to washing out by rain Crop production operations Livestock, poultry and aquaculture production Minimizing pesticide waste due to rain; crop pest/disease management Minimizing environmental pollution by agro-chemicals

Rubber estates and small holders

Minimizing fungal diseases due to high humidity As above

Crop extension workers and farmers

Preventing rain damage to high-value crops Control flowering of high-value crops and yield of cocoa

As above

Increasing crop yield and net return by minimizing the effect of weather hazards and using favourable conditions Increasing crop yield, efficiency of water use and photosynthesis Increasing crop water use efficiency

As above

Crop extension workers, farmers

Inform users of weather, soil water and crop conditions, crop outlook

Department of Agriculture, commodity trading companies, researchers

Monthly crop production forecast for Rice Oil Palm Rubber Cocoa Coconut Fruits, vegetables

Department of Agriculture Rice agencies Oil palm agencies Rubber agencies Cocoa Board Coconut traders Department of Agriculture

Publications on windbreak system design Localized agricultural weather forecasts (daily, 10-day, seasonal outlook) Localized agricultural weather forecasts (daily, 10-day, seasonal outlook) Advisory messages

Weather-based crop pest/disease forecasts and advisory messages Localized agricultural weather forecasts (daily, 10-day, seasonal outlook) Publications on environmental control design: Wider row spacing to lower humidity inside the crop canopy East–west row orientation for greater leaf exposure to the sun Crop production under plastic or glass Controlling light duration/quality Publications on climate-based cropping systems Publications on crop architecture Daily irrigation advisory messages based on past and actual weather Agrometeorological Bulletin: weather data and analyses, weather extremes, soil water and crop conditions Assessment of climate impact on crops (to be produced jointly with Department of Agriculture) and commodity agencies

Publications on specialized studies involving weather and climate applications to agriculture

As above

Crop extension workers and farmers As above Veterinary extension workers and farmers Farmers, extension workers Crop extension workers and farmers

As above

As above

Crop researchers and farmers

Specialized clients

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Appendix B The framework for the analysis of costs and benefits (Rijks, 1992) is shown in Table 2. Table 2 Framework for the analysis of costs and benefits (Rijks, 1992) Part A. Framework for the analysis of the success or failure of the forecast Forecast risk

(A) Low

(B) Medium

(C) High

System worked satisfactorily Lucky, system to be checked Warning system unsatisfactory unmade alert

False alerts System worked satisfactorily Warning system satisfactory but not well linked to system of preventive measures

False alerts System worked satisfactorily Warning system satisfactory; implementation system unsatisfactory

Reality 1. No attacks 2. Attacks controlled 3. (Severe) attacks not controlled

Part B. Identification of factors that determine the relative value of costs and benefits

1A 1B, 1C 2A 2B, 2C 3A, 3B, 3C

Costs

Benefits

Cost of warning system Cost of warning+cost of preventive measures Cost of warning+cost of curative measures Cost of warning+cost of preventive measures Cost of warnings+cost of crop losses+cost of the insufficient preventive measures

Absence of cost of preventive measures Nil Crop losses avoided Crop losses avoided Absence of cost of preventive measures

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