The Danube river and its importance on the Danube countries in cargo transport

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13th International Scientific Conference on Sustainable, Modern and Safe Transport 13th(TRANSCOM International Scientific Conference on Sustainable, and Safe Transport 2019), High Tatras, Novy Smokovec –Modern Grand Hotel Bellevue, (TRANSCOM 2019),Slovak High Tatras, Novy Smokovec – Grand Hotel Bellevue, Republic, May 29-31, 2019 Slovak Republic, May 29-31, 2019

The Danube river and its importance on the Danube countries in The Danube river and its importance on the Danube countries in cargo transport cargo transport Andrej Dávidaa*, Emilia Madudovább Andrej Dávid *, Emilia Madudová

Department of Water Transport, Universtiy of Žilina, Univerzitná 8215/1, 010 26 Žilina,, Slovakia Communications, University of of Žilina, Žilina, Univerzitná Univerzitná 8215/1, 8215/1, 010 010 26 26 Žilina,, Žilina, Slovakia Department of Water Transport, Universtiy b Department of Communications, University of Žilina, Univerzitná 8215/1, 010 26 Žilina, Slovakia

a

abDepartment

Abstract Abstract Inland water transport belongs to the most sufficient modes of transport within transport of bulk, general, liquid cargoes including Inland waterEconomic, transport belongs the territorial most sufficient modes of bulk, general,could liquidwork cargoes including containers. transporttoand aspects have of to transport be in linewithin so thattransport this mode of transport properly. It is containers. Economic, transportwaterways and territorial aspects have to bewith in line that The this Danube mode ofRiver transport could work properly. It is also necessary to have enough that link the hinterland seaso ports. that is the second longest river in Europe flowstothrough ten European countries. spite of its length, theports. volume ofDanube cargo has beenthat lower than on the Rhineriver and also necessary have enough waterways that linkInthe hinterland with sea The River is the second longest in flows through countries. In happened spite of itsinlength, the volume of cargo been lower than on theofRhine and its Europe tributaries as the resultten of European some aspects that have the Danube countries sincehas the1990s. The main goal the paper its the result some aspects have happened the Danube countries since The main goal the paper is totributaries focus on as status quo ofoftransport on thethat Danube, analyze ofinstrengths and weaknesses andthe1990s. prepare the measures thatofcould help to to improve thisstatus situation. is focus on quo of transport on the Danube, analyze of strengths and weaknesses and prepare the measures that could help to improve this situation. © 2019 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. © 2019 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. Peer-review under responsibility the scientific © 2019 The Authors. Published byof Elsevier B.V. committee of the 13th International Scientific Conference on Sustainable, Peer-review under responsibility of the scientific committee of the 13th International Scientific Conference on Sustainable, Peer-review under responsibility of the scientific Modern and Safe Transport (TRANSCOM Modern and Safe Transport (TRANSCOM2019). 2019). committee of the 13th International Scientific Conference on Sustainable, Modern and Safe Transport (TRANSCOM 2019). Keywords: Danube river; inland navigation; SWOT analysis; prediction Keywords: Danube river; inland navigation; SWOT analysis; prediction

1. Introduction 1. Introduction According to Dávid, et al. (2015), the Rhine - Mohan - Danube is one of the most important waterways within the According to Dávid, et al. (2015), the Rhinethat - Mohan - Danube onethe of Black the most waterways within the European navigation network. This waterway links the North is with Seaimportant is more than 3.500 kilometres European navigation network. This waterway that links the North with the Black Sea is more than 3.500 kilometres

* Corresponding author. Tel.: +421 41 513 3565; fax: +421 41 513 56 15. address:author. [email protected] * E-mail Corresponding Tel.: +421 41 513 3565; fax: +421 41 513 56 15. E-mail address: [email protected] 2352-1465 © 2018 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. Peer-review responsibility of the scientific committee 2352-1465 ©under 2018 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. of the 13th International Scientific Conference on Sustainable, Moder n and Safe Transport (TRANSCOM 2019). Peer-review under responsibility of the scientific committee of the 13th International Scientific Conference on Sustainable, Moder n and Safe Transport (TRANSCOM 2019).

2352-1465  2019 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. Peer-review under responsibility of the scientific committee of the 13th International Scientific Conference on Sustainable, Modern and Safe Transport (TRANSCOM 2019). 10.1016/j.trpro.2019.07.141

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long and runs across fifteen European countries. After the opening of the Main-Danube in 1992, the Danube River was connected with Western European waterways through the Main River - the right-side tributary of the Rhine River. According to Hasenbichter, et al. (2013), the Danube originates as a confluence of two German mountain rivers the Breg and Brigach in the Black Forest near Donaueschingen. The total length of the Danube, from the confluence to the estuary into the Black Sea, is 2.845 kilometres (some references refer to 2,580 kilometres). The length of the Danube, from its longer tributary (Breg), is up to 2,888 kilometres. The Danube has got the longest stretch in Romania (1.075 kilometres). On the other hand, it has got the shortest stretch in Moldova (about 550 meters). With a length of 1025 kilometres, it forms a natural state border between Danube countries, which is more than 40 % of its total length. The total surface area of the basin is 801.463 square kilometres and belongs to the sea catchment area of the Black Sea. The main tributaries of the Danube include the Sava River (left-side tributary) with a flow of 1,564 cubic metres per second, the Tisa (left-side tributary) with a flow of 794 cubic metres per second and the Inn with a flow of 735 cubic metres per second). The longest tributaries are the Sava (966 kilometres), then the Prut (950 kilometres) and the Drava River (893 kilometres). The length of navigable waterways in the Danube basin is about 6,300 kilometers, of which 3,600 kilometres of waterways are waterways of the international importance. 1.1. Division of the Danube according to its gradient According to Hasenbichter, et al. (2013), the Danube River is divided into three sections. The Upper Danube, which is 624 kilometres long, has the character of a mountain river and runs through Germany, Austria, Slovakia and Hungary (in the end it forms the natural border between Slovakia and Hungary). It starts in the German town of Kelheim (rkm 2,414.72), where the Danube links with the Main-Danube Canal, and ends in a Hungarian town of Gonyu (rkm 1,791.33). Its gradient is 37 cm per kilometre. There are located sixteen of eighteen dams on the Danube. Most of them are located in Austria, remaining in Germany, one of them is located in Slovakia. Four dams in Germany only have one lock chamber. The biggest dam on this stretch of the Danube is Gabčíkovo in Slovakia that was put in operation in October 1992. Downstream travel speed of vessels is from 16 to 18 kilometres per hour, upstream travel speed of vessels is from 9 to 13 kilometres per hour. On its middle and lower part, the Danube has got the character of a lowland river. The middle Danube is 860 kilometres long; it is from Gonyu (rkm 1,791.33) to Drobeta Turnu Severin (rkm 931.00). It flows through Slovakia, Hungary, Croatia, Serbia and Romania (Fig. 1). Close to Drobeta Turnu Severin there is located the biggest dam on the Danube (Iron Gates I). Its gradient is 8 centimetres per kilometre (Gutten et al., 2009). Downstream travel speed of vessels is from 18 to 20 kilometres per hour, upstream travel speed of vessels is from 9 to 13 kilometres per hour. The lower part of the Danube is from Drobeta Turnu Severin (rkm 931.00) to the estuary into the Black Sea (rkm 0.00. There is no dam on this part of the Danube. Its gradient is 4 centimetres per kilometre. Downstream travel speed of vessels is from 18 to 20 kilometres per hour, upstream travel speed of vessels is from 11 to 15 kilometres per hour.

Fig. 1. The Danube flowing through Kazan Gorge as a natural state border between Serbia and Romania.

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1.2. Classification of the Danube and its canals according to AGN According to AGN (2017), the Danube River may be divided into some classes. Each class defines maximal dimensions of motor cargo vessels or pushed convoys due to safety and smoothness of traffic on the waterway. From Regensburg to Budapest the Danube is classified as class VIb. On these stretch of the Danube the pushed convoys can sail that consist of a pusher (a motorized vessel used for pushing) and four non-motorized pushed barges. There is also the bottleneck (a stretch long 69 kilometres between Straubing a Vilshofen) where the Danube is classified as class VIa. Between Budapest and Belgrade, the Danube is classified as class VIc. This stretch of the Danube is for a pushed convoy that consists of a pusher and six pushed barges. Between Belgrade and the Danube delta the Danube River is classified as class VII. It means, there can sail pushed convoys with nine barges. The Danube River has got a lot of tributaries and two linking canals (the Main – Danube Canal and the Danube – Black Sea Canal) that are used for commercial navigation. The Main Danube Canal links the Main River with the Danube River. It is about 171 kilometres long, and there are located 16 locks. According to AGN it is classified as class Vb. The highest point on the Canal, which is located between Hilpolstein and Bachhausen locks, is located 406 above sea level. Some locks are equipped by reutilization basins due to saving of water during filling of draining of locks. The Danube – Black Sea Canal (Fig. 2.) that is 64 kilometres long links the Danube River with the Black Sea. It is located in Romania, and it was built due to saving of transport times between Cernavoda and the port of Constanta. According to AGN it is classified as class VIc. On the Canal there can sail pushed convoys with six barges or sea going vessels with their deadweight up to 5 thousand tons.

Fig. 2. Pushed convoy on the Danube – Black Sea Canal.

1.3. Commercial navigation on the Danube Kubec (1993) states, that the commercial navigation on the Danube is carried out from the German city of Kelheim (rkm 2,414.72). The Danube flows through ten European countries (Germany, Austria, Slovakia, Hungary, Croatia, Serbia, Romania, Bulgaria, Moldova and the Ukraine) and four capital cities (Vienna, Bratislava, Budapest and Belgrade). With this number the Danube can be included among the waterways that flow with the largest number of countries in the world. Four Danube countries are only located on one bank of the Danube (Croatia - right bank, Bulgaria - right bank, Moldova - left bank and Ukraine - left bank). Shortly before the Black Sea, it creates so-called the Danube Delta, which consists of three branches (Chilia, Sulina, and Saint George). Sulina is used for commercial navigation.

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2. SWOT analysis of inland navigation on the Danube River 2.1. Generally about inland water transport Water transport or inland navigation is a transport mode in which a carrier uses inland, sea or combined (river-sea) navigation for transport of goods. Vehicles of water transport (motor cargo vessels or pushed convoys) use navigable rivers, artificial canals or lakes for their movement. Inland waterway transport as a transport mode: • is economical, energy-efficient and environmentally friendly compared to other transport modes, • is suitable for transport of cargo, where the speed of transport is not decisive. It is suitable for transport of bulk, general and liquid cargo. Using horizontal transhipment (movement of vehicles over the ramp of a vessel), it is also used for the transport of transport vehicles (cars), • is irreplaceable in transport of oversize and overload cargo, • ensures the connection between maritime and inland ports (Hanšút et al., 2017). The current position of water transport is determined by several factors that can stimulate or dampen this mode of transport. These factors are natural, economic conditions or historical development. Natural conditions include the overall morphology, the wateriness of the landscape and the climatic conditions. The existence of sufficient dense river network, a system of lakes with the possibility of their natural or artificial connection are very important. Climatic conditions can also have an adverse effect on the development of water transport (Gašparík et al., 2017). These areas include the subarctic areas (part of waterways in Canada or Russia) or some subtropical countries (waterways of the Near East or Australia). In these countries, navigation takes a certain period of the year. In the countries that do not have a sufficiently dense river network (southern part of Brazil), or they have a long and indented coastline (Norway, Chile), inland navigation can be replaced by river-sea navigation (coastal, cabotage navigation). Economic conditions can stimulate or dampen water transport. The strongest countries of the European Union, such as Germany, the Netherlands, and Belgium, have a huge network of canals. These canals that are linked to the waterway network of Western Europe allow vessel movements, including passenger and cargo transport. On the other hand, many developing countries have a dense river network where the volume of inland navigation is insignificant as the result of the low level of economy (Piala, 2016). There is also a lack of the necessary impetus to improve infrastructure. These countries include African or South American countries. Historically, it is essential so that water transport develops in parallel with other modes of transport (in particular with rail transport). In the countries where its development occurred earlier (the United Kingdom) or later (the Czech or Slovak Republic), water transport does not play such an important role in the transport system of the state in transport of cargo. SWOT analysis of inland navigation on the Danube River. 2.2. SWOT analysis of inland navigation on the Danube River In spite of the fact that the Danube is the second longest river in Europe after the Volga the volume of transported goods is lower than on the Rhine. On one hand the Danube does not flow through industrial and commercial areas such as the Rhine River. In the 1990s most Danube countries (except Germany and Austria) underwent political and economic changes that influenced on navigation badly. Before 1989 most of these countries used to carry a lot of raw materials (iron ore and coal) from the Soviet Union due to their heavy industries. There was also a war conflict in the Former Yugoslavia, three bridges were bumped by NATO in Novi Sad in April 1999. As the result of this incident navigation between the Middle and Lower Danube was interrupted for a few years. On the other hand, it did not have a direct connection with a maritime port till 1984. The situation was changed after the Danube – Black Sea canal had been completed and had been put in operation. SWOT analysis of Danube navigation is presented in Table 1.

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Table 1. SWOT analysis of inland navigation on the Danube River. Strengths

Weaknesses

S1 water transport has got lower travel costs than other modes of transport (road or railway transport)

W1 low transport speed of water transport

S2 water transport can carry the biggest volume of goods (especially bulk cargo) in comparison with other modes of transport S3 water transport is environmentally friendly; it has got the lowest impact on the environment in comparison with other modes of transport

W2 low density of waterways in comparison with other modes of transport W3 insufficient maintenance of the Danube River in some Danube countries W4 high costs for modernization of fleet and infrastructure in the Danube ports

S4 safety of navigation S5 cooperation of water transport with other modes of transport (road and railway transport) in transport chains Opportunities

Threats

O1 spare transport capacity of the Danube River

T1 water transport is depended hydrological and meteorological conditions (low, high water level, icebergs on waterways and their movement, freezing of the Danube)

O2 raising demands for environmentally friendly transport modes O3 modern and harmonized cross-border information services (RIS) (Source: Manual on Danube Navigation, edit by Authors)

3. Transport of goods on the Danube and its prediction According to Galieriková (2018), the volume of goods transported on the Danube River have increased in the last few years. In 2016 about 59 729 thousand tons of goods was transported on the Danube, it was more about 4.86 % in comparison with previous year. In this value there are also included transports of goods not only in the Danube countries but also on the Danube branches and its canals (the Main-Danube Canal and the Canal Danube-Black Sea). The most goods were transported in Romania (22 018 thousand of tons). It was 36,86 % of total volume of goods. Romania was followed by the Ukraine (5 399 thousand of tons) and Hungary (3 590 thousand of tons). In the same year 1 800 thousand of goods was transported in Slovakia that was 3,01 % of total volume of goods. 3.1. The prediction of development of transported goods on the Danube River We used the method of least square for linear regression and prediction of development of transported goods on the Danube River until 2020. We used the values of transported goods on the Danube between 2011 and 2016 for the calculation of equation. Table 2. The volume of goods transported on the Danube between 2011 and 2016 (in thousands of tons) Year

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

Volume of goods (t)

51 674

51 165

49 288

45 791

56 960

59 729

(Source: Danube Navigation Statistics)

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volumes of goods

Transport of goods y = 1547.5x + 47018 R² = 0.3226

51 674

51 165

2011

2012

49 288

56 960

59 729

2015

2016

45 791

2013years2014 Fig. 3. Linear regression.

The coefficient of correlation has got the value of 0,57. According to generated equation: y = 1547,5x + 47018

(1)

where y is the volume of goods that was transported on the Danube and x is a year when the volume of goods was transported we can calculate the development of transported goods on the Danube for 2019 and 2020. In 2020 we predict that about 62 493 thousands of tons will be transported on the Danube. Table 3. The prediction of the development of transported goods on the Danube River for 2019 and 2020 Year

2019

2020

Volume of transported goods (t)

60 945,5

62 493

4. Conclusion The basic goal of the paper was to focus on the general description of the Danube waterway, its economic and transport importance for the Danube countries, commercial navigation from Kelheim to Sulina, and SWOT analysis of Danube navigation. At the end of the paper we predicted the development of transported goods on the Danube till 2020 with using of least square method. Although the Danube is the second longest European river after the Volga the volume of goods transported on the Danube is lower than on the Rhine. It is the result of different factors such as transformation processes in the Danube countries in the 1990s, the civil war in the former Yugoslavia (navigation was stopped between the middle and lower Danube for a few years), or insufficient support from the side of some Danube countries to upgrade fleet and infrastructure in the Danube ports. In spite of these factors the volumes of goods on the Danube have increased in the last few years. We predict that about 62 493 thousands of tons will be transported on the Danube in 2020. We used the method of least square for that prediction. In the last few years some EU projects focused on the modernization of infrastructure in inland ports, fleets and education of nautical staff have been prepared. The authors of the paper hope that these measures will help to change this inauspicious situation and inland navigation on the Danube will become a relevant mode of transport in transport of goods in the Danube countries.

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Acknowledgements The paper is supported by the VEGA Agency by the Project 1/0791/18 "The Assessment of Economic and Technological Aspects in the Provision of Competitive Public Transport Services in integrated Transport Systems”, that is solved at Faculty of Operations and Economics of Transport and Communication, University of Žilina. References Danube Navigation Statistics [WWW Document]. danubecomission.org. URL http://www.danubecommission.org/dc/en/danubenavigation/danube-navigation-statistics/ (accessed 9.1.19) Dávid, A., (2017), Vnútrozemské prístavy. EDIS-Žilinská univerzita v Žiline, ISBN 978-80-554-1372-3, 77p. Dávid, A., et al., 2015, Dunaj a jeho hospodársky význam pre krajiny strednej a východnej Európy [WWW Document]. svetdopravy.sk. URL http://www.svetdopravy.sk/dunaj-a-jeho-hospodarsky-vyznam-pre-krajiny-strednej-a-vychodnej-europy/ (accessed 1.1.19) Galieriková, A., Sosedová, J., 2018, Intermodal transportation of dangerous goods. Our Sea: International Journal of Maritime Science & Technology 65.3, 8-11p.. Gašparík, J., Zitrický, V., Abramovic, B., et al. 2017. Role of CRM in supply chains using the process portal. Book Series: Proceedings of International Scientific Conference Business Logistics in Modern Management. 385-404p. Hanšút, L., Gašparík, J., Dávid, A., 2017. The critical path method as the method for evaluation and identification of the optimal container trade route between Asia and Slovakia. Book Series: Proceedings of International Scientific Conference Business Logistics in Modern Management. 29-42p. Hasenbichter, H-P. et al. (2013), Manual on Danube Navigation. Via donau – Vienna, ISBN 978-3-9502226-2-3, 218p. Kubec, J., 1993, Vodní cesty a přístavy. Skriptum - Vysoká škola dopravy a spojov Ekotrans Moravia, ISBN 80-7151-840-9, 232p. Piala, P., Dávid, A., 2016. Transport of tropical fruits to central Europe.. Nase More. Vol. 63 Issue: 2. 62-65p. Gutten, M., Kučera, S., et al. 2009. Analysis of power transformers reliability with regard to the influences of short-circuit currents effects and overcurrents. Przeglad elektrotechniczny, vol. 85, 62-64p.