The drought and locust plague of 942–944 AD in the Yellow River Basin, China

Quaternary International xxx (2014) 1e8

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The drought and locust plague of 942e944 AD in the Yellow River Basin, China Jie Fei a, c, *, Jie Zhou b a

Institute of Chinese Historical Geography, Fudan University, Shanghai 200433, China Kunming Branch, The Chinese Academy of Sciences, Kunming 650204, Yunnan Province, China c School of Geographical Information and Tourism, Chuzhou University, Chuzhou 239000, Anhui Province, China b

a r t i c l e i n f o

a b s t r a c t

Article history: Available online xxx

Drought and locust plague are disasters that have brought destruction to the Yellow River Basin. Here, we use Chinese historical sources to study a severe prolonged drought and locust plague in the middle of the 10th century. From 942 to 944 AD, an exceptionally severe drought and accompanying locust plague swept through the Yellow River Basin of China. The drought and locust plague began and developed into a great disaster in 942 AD, and worsened in 943 AD, then ended in 944 AD. The drought and locust plague resulted in a great famine, and approximately one tenth of the total population of the Yellow River Basin starved to death. The Later Jin Dynasty (936e947 AD), a state in the region, thus fell into a national crisis.
eruption in Iceland as a possible cause of the drought. The eruption We suggest the prolonged Eldgja began circa 934 AD, and lasted for three to eight years. It was one of the largest volcanic eruptions in the world during the past 2000 years. The whole process of the drought and locust plague was: 1) the Eldgj
a eruption resulted in abrupt cooling and drought; 2) drought and a locust plague resulted in great famine; 3) the famine resulted in massive deaths and a national crisis. © 2014 Elsevier Ltd and INQUA. All rights reserved.

Keywords: Drought Locust plague Famine Yellow River Basin Later Jin dynasty Eldgj
a eruption

1. Introduction Climatic change has been a potential cause of societal collapse during the past four millennia (DeMenocal, 2001; Weiss and Bradley, 2001; Alley et al., 2003; Haug et al., 2003; O'Connor and Kiker, 2004; Booth et al., 2005; Fei et al., 2007; Büntgen et al., 2011; Hsiang, 2011). Detailed statistical analyses confirm that climatic change correlates significantly with population collapse, social unrest, war occurrence, and dynastic transition during the past 1200 years in China as well as other parts of the northern hemisphere (Zhang et al., 2005, 2007a, b; Zhang et al., 2011a,b). Drought and locust plague have long been recognized as very destructive hazardous natural disasters. They caused famine and further resulted in social unrest at various historical times in the Yellow River Basin of China (Deng, 1936; Gao, 1997; Stige et al., 2007; Zhang, 2008; Rothschild, 2012). A locust plague often follows drought in the Yellow River basin, because drought results in

* Corresponding author. Institute of Chinese Historical Geography, Fudan University, Shanghai 200433, China. E-mail address: [email protected] (J. Fei).

favourable habitat for the outbreak of a locust plague (Stige et al., 2007; Zhang, 2008). Volcanic eruptions have long been recognized as a major cause of climatic change (Lamb, 1970; Crowley, 2000; Robock, 2000). The
Volcano in southern Iceland, prolonged eruption of the Eldgja which started around 934 AD and lasted three to eight years, was possibly the largest terrestrial basaltic flood lava eruption in the last 2000 years (Hammer et al., 1980; Stothers, 1998; Thordarson et al., 2001). It sent 219 Mt of SO2 into the atmosphere, and the atmo
eruption exceeds that of the spheric SO2 mass loading of the Eldgja 1600 AD Huaynaputina eruption, the 1783 AD Lakagígar (Laki) eruption and the 1815 AD Tambora eruption by factors of 4, 1.8, and 2.0e2.8 respectively (Clausen and Hammer, 1988; Harington, 1992; Thordarson et al., 1996, 2001). The eruption process of Icelandic volcanoes is prolonged and complex, thus complicating the environmental effects (Self et al., 2006; Thordarson and Larsen, 2007). For instance, the 1783e1784 AD Lakagígar (Laki) eruption lasted for eight months and was composed of at least 10 eruptive episodes (Thordarson et al., 1996;
eruption Thordarson and Self, 2003; Chenet et al., 2005). The Eldgja lasted several years, and its magnitude was significantly larger than the Lakagígar eruption. Detailed ice core studies and tephra studies

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Please cite this article in press as: Fei, J., Zhou, J., The drought and locust plague of 942e944 AD in the Yellow River Basin, China, Quaternary International (2014), http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.quaint.2014.11.053

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eruption existed in many confirmed that the signals of the Eldgja ice cores in Greenland (Hammer, 1984; Zielinski et al., 1994, 1995; Hammer et al., 1980; Herron, 1982; Johnson et al., 1992; Abbott, and ^te ice core (Greenland), the Eldgja
signal Davies, 2012). In the Cre covered about three annual layers, and was dated to 934 ± 2 AD (Hammer et al., 1980; Hammer, 1984). In the GISP2 ice core
eruption covered three to six (Greenland), the signal of the Eldgja annual layers, and was dated to 938 ± 4 AD (Zielinski et al., 1994,
eruption should be more 1995). Therefore, the process of the Eldgja complex than the Lakagígar eruption, and its environmental effects should be more complex and long-lasting. The Later Jin Dynasty (936e947 AD) was one of the five dynasties during the ‘Five Dynasties and Ten Kingdoms’ period. Its territory covered approximately the basin of the middle and lower reaches of the Yellow River (Fig. 1). The Five Dynasties and Ten Kingdoms (907e959 AD) is a historical period of China. During the period, the Yellow River Basin was in the reign of five successive dynasties: the Later Liang Dynasty (907e923 AD), the Later Tang Dynasty (923e936 AD), the Later Jin Dynasty (936e947 AD), the Later Han Dynasty (947e950 AD), and the Later Zhou Dynasty (950e960 AD). A total of ten small kingdoms existed in the Yangtze River Basin and adjacent areas, and the Khitan (also known as Liao) Empire (907e1125 AD) reigned in Northeast China as well as Mongolia. Case study is an effective method of understanding the causes and effects of a natural disaster, and it can reveal the details of the process. Here, we conduct a case study of the drought and locust plague of 942e944 AD in the Yellow River Basin, China. The detailed process of the drought and locust plague is reconstructed season by season. We examine the process of the drought and locust plague that caused famine, population collapse, and national crisis, and then suggest the possible volcanic cause of the drought and plague. 2. Data sources and materials China is well known for its long history and abundant historical literature. The Five Dynasties and Ten Kingdoms (907e959 AD) bridge the time from the Tang Dynasty's fall in 907 AD to the rise of the Song Dynasty in 960 AD. In particular, compilations of histories, chronicles, and encyclopaedias, as well as other relevant literature were very popular in the Song and subsequent dynasties, thus keeping a good record of the history of the Five Dynasties and Ten Kingdoms. Most of the literature in this study comes from the dynasty histories, chronicles, and encyclopaedias. Some of the sources were compiled by the government; others were compiled privately and the authors are usually influential scholars. It is noteworthy that the Chinese lunar calendar is commonly adopted in the Chinese historical literature. The length of a lunar calendar month is 29 or 30 days. Most years contain twelve months, whereas every two to four years a leap month is inserted. Conversions of the lunar calendar to the Gregorian calendar can be done using software designed by the Academia Sinica, which is available on line (http://www.sinica.edu.tw/~tdbproj/sinocal/luso. html). Additionally, dates are numbered via a sexagenary cycle, which is independent of the lunar calendar dates. The order of the sexagenary cycle is: jia-zi, yi-chou, bing-yin, ding-mao, wu-chen, ji-si, geng-wu, xin-wei, ren-shen, gui-you, jia-xu, yi-hai, bing-zi, dingchou, wu-yin, ji-mao, geng-chen, xin-si, ren-wu, gui-wei, jia-shen, yi-you, bing-xu, ding-hai, wu-zi, ji-chou, geng-yin, xin-mao, renchen, gui-si, jia-wu, yi-wei, bing-shen, ding-you, wu-xu, ji-hai, geng-zi, xin-chou, ren-yin, gui-mao, jia-chen, yi-si, bing-wu, dingwei, wu-shen, ji-you, geng-xu, xin-hai, ren-zi, gui-chou, jia-yin, yin-mao, bing-chen, ding-si, wu-wu, ji-wei, geng-shen, xin-you,

ren-xu, gui-hai. Apparently, this cycle is quite similar to the week cycle of 7 days that is widely adopted in the modern world. 3. Results 3.1. Temporal pattern of the disasters 3.1.1. 942 AD: Beginning of the disaster 3.1.1.1. Spring 1) Wu-xu day, 3rd month, 7th year of the Tianfu Reign Period (Mar. 27, 942 AD), the Emperor ordered his officials to go to the temples and pray for rain due to the spring drought (Wang, 1013). The date ‘Wu-xu’ is probably a mistake meant to be Ren-xu for the following reasons: 1) there is no Wu-xu day in this month; 2) it is recorded as Ren-xu in a similar record in the Jiu Wu Dai Shi, Vol. 80 (Xue, 973). 2) That spring, there were droughts in Yedu, Fengxiang, Yanzhou, Shanzhou, Ruzhou, Hengzhou, and Chenzhou Prefectures, and locust plagues in Yunzhou, Caozhou, Chanzhou, Bozhou, Xiangzhou, and Mingzhou Prefectures (Xue, 974).

3.1.1.2. Summer 1) That month (4th month, 7th year of the Tianfu Reign Period, i.e. May 18-Jun. 16, 942 AD), there were locust plagues in sixteen prefectures (Xue, 974). 2) That month (5th month, 7th year of the Tianfu Reign Period, i.e. Jun. 17-Jul. 15, 942 AD), it was reported that there were floods in five prefectures, and droughts and locust plagues in eighteen prefectures (Xue, 974). 3) It was reported that locusts destroyed crops in the Henan (south of the Yellow River), Hebei (north of the Yellow River), and Guanxi (the western territory of the Later Jin Dynasty) areas (Xue, 974).

3.1.1.3. Autumn 1) That month (7th month, 7th year of the Tianfu Reign Period. Aug. 15-Sept. 12, 942 AD), there were locust plagues in seventeen prefectures (Xue, 974). 2) That month (8th month, 7th year of the Tianfu Reign Period. Sept. 13-Oct. 12, 942 AD), there were locust plagues in Hezhong, Hedong, Hexi, Xuzhou, Jinzhou, Shangzhou, and Ruzhou Prefectures (Xue, 974).

3.1.1.4. Winter 1) Drought and locust plague (Ouyang, 1053). 3.1.2. 943 AD: Peak of the disaster 3.1.2.1. Spring 1) In the 1st month, 8th year of the Tianfu Reign period (Feb. 8-Mar. 8, 943 AD), Henan Prefecture reported that a total of 5387 families fled, and many of them died of hunger. Many prefectures suffered droughts and locust plagues, people fled from

Please cite this article in press as: Fei, J., Zhou, J., The drought and locust plague of 942e944 AD in the Yellow River Basin, China, Quaternary International (2014), http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.quaint.2014.11.053

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Fig. 1. Upper: Map of China, circa 942 AD. Lower: Enlarged map showing the Yellow River Basin (modified after Tan, 1982).

Please cite this article in press as: Fei, J., Zhou, J., The drought and locust plague of 942e944 AD in the Yellow River Basin, China, Quaternary International (2014), http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.quaint.2014.11.053

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famine, and tens of thousands of them starved to death (Xue, 974). 2) (3rd month, 8th year of the Tianfu Reign Period. Apr. 8-May 6, 943 AD) Locust plague (Ouyang, 1053).

3.1.2.2. Summer 1) Geng-xu day (6th month of the 8th year of the Tianfu Reign Period. i.e. Jul. 8, 943 AD), drought and a locust plague; Bingchen day (Jul. 14, 943 AD), it was reported that 3700 families fled away; Geng-shen day (Jul. 18, 943 AD), Henan Prefecture reported that swarms of locusts covered the hills and dales. The leaves of vegetations were eaten up, and many people died of hunger …. Bing-yin day (Jul. 24, 943 AD) … Shanzhou prefecture reported that locusts flew to the prefecture and ate up the leaves of vegetation. A total of 8100 families fled. This month (6th month of the 8th year of the Tianfu Reign Period. Jul. 5-Aug. 3, 943 AD), there were locust plagues in every prefecture in the country, and vegetation was eaten by the locusts (Xue, 974).

2) There was a great famine during this winter; more than 26000 people died of hunger in the prefectures in the Henan area (Xue, 974). 3) During this year, there were droughts in the spring and summer, and floods in the autumn and winter. A severe locust plague occurred in the vast area spreading from Longzhou Prefecture in the west to the sea in the east, and from the Yangtze River in the south to the Youzhou and Jizhou Prefectures in the north. The locusts covered the hills and dales, city walls, and houses. The leaves of vegetation were eaten. Several hundred thousand people died of hunger, and innumerable residents fled (Sima, 1084). 3.1.3. 944 AD: End of the disaster 3.1.3.1. Spring 1) (1st month of the 9th Year of the Tianfu Reign Period. Jan. 28Feb. 26, 944 AD) A great famine (Ouyang, 1053).

3.1.3.2. Summer 2) In the 4th month of the 8th year (i.e. May 7-Jun. 5, 943 AD), the locust plague spread to every prefecture and the leaves of vegetation were eaten by locusts. The emperor ordered officials to catch locusts. At that time, droughts and locust plagues hit the Later Jin Dynasty. People fled from their homes and many were dying of hunger. The condition was particularly bad in the Guanxi area, where seven to eight-tenths of the people died of hunger. From then on, the Later Jin Dynasty fell into a decline (Xue, 974). 3) Gui-si day, 5th month, 8th year of the Tianfu Reign Period (Jun. 21, 943 AD), there had been a drought for a long time. Jia-chen day (Jul. 2, 943 AD), the emperor declared an amnesty due to the locust plague and prolonged drought (Wang, 1013). 4) Geng-xu day, 6th month, 8th year of the Tianfu Reign Period (Jul. 8, 943 AD), due to the locust plague, the emperor dispatched an officer to pray. Ren-xu day (Jul. 20, 943 AD), the emperor dispatched seven officers to lead the army to catch locusts in Fengqiu, Changyuan, Yangwu, Junyi, Suanzao, Zhongmou, and Kaifeng counties (Wang, 1013).

3.1.2.3. Autumn

1) Bing-yin day, 4th month (May 19, 944 AD), Longzhou Prefecture reported that a total of 56000 people died of hunger. In the 5th month (May 25-Jun. 22, 944 AD), Zezhou and Luzhou reported that more than 5000 people died of hunger (Xue, 974). 3.1.4. Summary of the temporal pattern The processes of the droughts and locust plagues are summed up as follows (Table 1). Widespread drought and locust plagues began and developed into a nationwide disaster in 942 AD. Drought was severe in the spring and summer of 943 AD, whereas it eased in the autumn. It is recorded that in that year (8th year of the Tianfu Reign Period), it rained continuously for a month in the autumn (Xue, 974; The location of this record should be the vicinity of the capital, Kaifeng.). On the other hand, locust plagues and famine were very severe in 943 AD, thus making the conditions even worse. With regard to 944 AD, no records about any drought or locust plague are found. It should be reasonable to infer that the drought and locust plague

Table 1 Temporal patterns of the droughts and locust plagues from 942 to 944 AD. Time

1) Xin-hai day, 8th month, 8th year of the Tianfu Reign Period (Sept. 7, 943 AD), the emperor dispatched thirteen officials to inspect the prefectures that were suffering droughts. It was reported that a total of 5890 families fled in Jingzhou, Qingzhou, Cizhou, and Yedu prefectures (Xue, 974). 2) In the 9th month, 8th year of the Tianfu Reign Period (Oct. 2-Oct. 31, 943 AD), there were locust plagues in 27 prefectures (Xue, 974).

942 942 942 942 943 943 943 943 944 944 944 944

AD AD AD AD AD AD AD AD AD AD AD AD

Spring Summer Autumn Winter Spring Summera Autumn Winter Springb Summer Autumn Winterc

Drought

Locust plague

þ þ

þ þ þ þ þ þ þ þ

þ þ þ

Famine

þ þ þ þ þ þ

a

3.1.2.4. Winter 1) Jia-yin day, 12th month, 8th year of the Tianfu Reign Period (Jan. 8, 944 AD), the Huazhou and Shanzhou prefectures reported that a total of 12,300 families fled (Xue, 974).

From then on, the Later Jin Dynasty fell into a decline (Xue, 974). The large army of the Khitan invaded the Later Jin Empire (Xue, 974; Sima, 1084). c The emperor issued an edict saying that in recent years, the people had suffered from natural disasters, crop failures, and famines, and many people died of hunger. Our country (the Later Jin Dynasty) was deep in a national crisis and had gloomy prospects (Xue, 974). b

Please cite this article in press as: Fei, J., Zhou, J., The drought and locust plague of 942e944 AD in the Yellow River Basin, China, Quaternary International (2014), http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.quaint.2014.11.053

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ended in 944 AD: however, famine was still severe in the spring and summer. 3.2. Disasters in other areas Did other areas suffer such disasters from 942 to 944 AD? After a careful literature survey, two records are identified: 1) In the sixth month of the Sixth Year of the Shengyuan Reign Period (16 Jul-14 Aug, 942 AD), Changzhou, Xuanzhou and Shezhou Prefectures of the Southern Tang Kingdom were hit by floods. In the same month, swarms of locusts flew from the north to the Southern Tang Kingdom, and the sky was blotted out (Wu, 1669). The Southern Tang Kingdom lay in the basin of the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River; therefore, the locust plague spread from the Yellow River Basin to the Yangtze River Basin in 942 AD. 2) The East Asian summer monsoon variability was reconstructed using the d18O of stalagmite in southern Gansu Province (Zhang et al., 2008). The resolution of the chronology is 4 years and the dating uncertainty is ±3 years in the section of the mid-10th century. It seems that the early 940s was not an abnormal period according to this chronology. The regional distribution of the drought and locust plague of 942e944 AD is very interesting. It could indicate the areal differ
eruption. The entiation of the meteorological effects of the Eldgja Later Jin Empire in the Yellow River basin was the major loser of the drought and locust plague of 942e944 AD. The kingdoms in the

5

Yangtze Basin were winners, as these regions enjoyed good harvests. The Khitan Empire in northeast China and the Mongolian Plateau was possibly another winner, as no records of meteorological hazards are found in the dynasty history Liao Shi (Tuo, 1334) and other relevant literature.
eruption and 3.3. Coupling analysis between the Eldgja meteorological hazards in the Yellow River Basin What would be the potential cause of the drought and locust plague? As this event occurred 1000 years ago, and the meteorological background remains unidentified, any conclusions are more
eruption in or less speculative. Here, we suggest that the Eldgja Iceland could be a possible cause.
eruption, abrupt cooling occurred in Following the Eldgja 934e935 AD and 939e941 AD in Eurasia (Stothers, 1998). In China, significant cooling only occurred in 939e941 AD (Fei and Zhou, 2006. Table 2). It seems that the drought and locust plague in China started a little later than the cooling.
eruption, it is a possible Considering the magnitude of the Eldgja cause of the prolonged drought and locust plague of 942e944 AD. The mechanism of volcanic cooling is unambiguous; however, that of any precipitation anomaly is somewhat complicated and controversial. Research indicates that volcanic eruptions would be related to ~ o events ENSO, and major volcanic eruptions could trigger El Nin (Robock and Liu, 1994; Portman and Gutzler, 1996; Bouma et al., 1997; Angell, 1988; Nicholls, 1988; Mass and Portman, 1989; Adams et al., 2003; Cane, 2005; Mann et al., 2005). On the other ~ o events would trigger droughts in the Yellow River hand, El Nin Basin (Wang et al., 2006; Su and Wang, 2007; Chen et al., 2012; Zhang et al., 2013). It is suggested that all the extreme droughts

Table 2
eruption, Iceland. Abrupt cooling in the world following the Eldgja Date

Location

Descriptions

Winter of 934e935 AD Winter of 934e935 AD

Baghdad, Iraq Constantinople, Turkey

Winter of 934e935 AD May 9, 935 AD

Ireland Kyoto, Japan

935 AD

Iraq

Summers of 935 and 937 AD

Beijing

Warm season of 938 AD Dec., 938 AD

Solongotyn Davaa, Mongolia Kyoto, Japan

939 AD Jul. 26, 939 Dec., 939 AD- Feb., 940 AD Winter of 939e940 AD Winter of 939e940 AD

Switzerland Southeast of the Inner Mongolia Plateau Near Kaifeng, China Germany Ireland

Unaccustomed snowfall (Stothers, 1998; and references therein) On Dec. 25, 934 AD, intolerably cold weather set in, such that the earth was frozen over for 120 days. A great famine followed, exceeding those that had ever happened before. Because of this, there was high mortality, as the living were unable to carry out the dead for burial (Stothers, 1998; and references therein) A long and bitterly cold winter (Stothers, 1998; and references therein) An unseasonable frost (Central Meteorological Bureau and Marine Meteorological Bureau of Japan, 1939). In June the weather was chilly and very rainy at Nisibis on the northern Tigris River (Stothers, 1998; and references therein) Stalagmite layer thickness data indicate that 935 and 937 AD were abnormally cool, whereas the early 940s were normal (Tan et al., 2003) Frost ring indicating unseasonable frosts (D'Arrigo et al., 2001) Unaccustomed snowfall (Central Meteorological Bureau and Marine Meteorological Bureau of Japan, 1939) A hard year (Stothers, 1998 and references therein) It snowed today (Tuo, 1334)

Winter of 939e940 AD

Iraq

Warm season of 940 AD Winter of 940e941 Winter of 940e941 AD

Northern high-latitude region Southern Tang Kingdom Near Qingzhou, China

Winter of 941e942 AD Nov., 941 AD-Apr., 942 AD

Near Kaifeng, China Lake Johnston, Australia

Feb., 942 AD

South part of the Sea of Japan

It snowed heavily for over fifty days without any sign of ceasing (Xue, 974; Wang, 1013) A very harsh winter in northern Germany (Stothers, 1998) A ‘great frost’ in Ireland that made lakes and rivers passable struck in probably the same winter all across the island (Stothers, 1998) The Tigris River is reported to have widely flooded the country in 940 AD. This implies abnormally heavy winter rainfalls or snowfalls in the river's upper reaches (Stothers, 1998) A significant negative growth signature indicating a significant cold anomaly (Briffa, 2000) The canal in the Southern Tang Kingdom was frozen hard (Sima, 1084) On Feb. 3, 941 AD, an official of Qingzhou reported to the emperor that the sea there (the Bohai Sea, i.e. Gulf of Chihli) froze scores of kilometers off shore (Xue, 974) It was very cold in this winter (Xue, 974; Ouyang, 1053) A significant negative growth signature peaked in 942 AD indicating a very significant cold spell (Cook et al., 2000) Abnormally severe sea ice conditions (Central Meteorological Bureau and Marine Meteorological Bureau of Japan, 1939)

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during the past 500 years could be related to volcanic eruptions in this region (Shen et al., 2007a, b). Therefore, it is reasonable that ~ o events, and further result in volcanic eruptions would trigger El Nin droughts in the Yellow River Basin. For example, following the major volcanic eruptions in 1258 AD and 1783 AD, many regions suffered severe droughts in the Northern Hemisphere (Fiacco et al., 1994;
e et al., 2001). Grattan and Brayshay, 1995; Stothers, 2000; Demare In particular, there was a severe drought in China from 1784 to 1787 AD, for which the possible cause was attributed to sunspot and ENSO variability (Zhang, 2000). However, we should suggest the possible connection with the 1783e1784 AD Lakagígar (Laki) eruption of Iceland. That eruption was also a large Icelandic eruption, though the magnitude was slightly smaller than the Eldgj
a eruption. The Lakagígar (Laki) eruption resulted in several years of abrupt cooling and other environmental effects in the northern hemisphere (Fiacco et al., 1994; Grattan and Brayshay, 1995;
e et al., 2001). In China, the duraThordarson et al., 1996; Demare tion of the drought of 1784e1787 AD was about the same as the drought of 942e944 AD, and both of the droughts were accompanied by a locust plague. Therefore, the drought of 1784e1787 AD is actually a historical analogue of our present research. It is very interesting that both droughts are possibly related to large Icelandic volcanic eruptions, which should be helpful to better understand the environmental effects of such volcanic eruptions. ~ o events can only be traced However, historical records of El Nin back to the 16th century (Quinn and Neal, 1992). A recent study ~ o events during the past 1100 reconstructed a chronology of El Nin years (Cobb et al., 2003). It is difficult to discuss the occurrences of ~ o events in the 10th century due to the fact that the dating El Nin uncertainty of this period amounts to ±10 years. There is no doubt that determining the causes of the natural disasters are necessarily complicated, and we are not about to exclude other potential causes. For example, the massive Plinian eruption of the Tianchi Volcano in northeast China, 921e941 AD, was also one of the greatest volcanic eruptions on Earth during the past 2000 years, and it should have been capable of producing significant environmental effects (Yin et al., 2012). However, the dating of the eruption is still controversial, and other dating results, such as 1200e1230 AD and 949e989 AD cannot be excluded (Liu et al., 1998; Horn and Schmincke, 2000). 3.4. Famine in the Later Jin Dynasty The drought and locust plague swept through the Yellow River Basin, continued for three years, and caused a great famine. The famine caused massive deaths and population collapse, as the people who died of hunger amounted to 100,000. For example, it is recorded that ‘several hundred thousand people died of hunger, and innumerable people fled (Sima, 1084; Xue, 974).’, ‘that year, several hundred thousand people died of hunger (Xue, 974).’ The difficulty lies in that no direct records about the total population of the Later Jin Dynasty are available. However, there is a relevant record that when the Later Jin Dynasty surrendered to the Khitan in 947 AD, it was recorded that the total number of families was 1,090,018 (Tuo, 1334). On average, each family should have had five to six people during the Five Dynasties and Ten Kingdoms Period (907e960 AD) (Lu and Teng, 2000; Dong, 2002). Therefore, the population of the Later Jin Dynasty should be calculated as about 5  106e6  106. The disaster caused a loss of several hundred thousand people. This figure amounts to 1/10 of the total population of the Later Jin Dynasty. The massive deaths caused a national crisis in the Later Jin Dynasty, and its vitality was fatally crippled (Table 1). As early as the summer of 943 AD, it was recorded that: ‘From then on, the Later Jin Dynasty fell into a decline (Xue, 974). One year later, it was recorded

that, “Wu-wu day, 10th month, 1st year of the Kaiyun Reign period (Nov. 7, 944 AD), the emperor issued an edict: these years, we suffered from natural disasters, crop failures, and famines, and many people died of hunger … Our empire was deep in a national crisis and had gloomy prospects (Xue, 974).” The Later Jin Dyansty was founded by Shi Jingtang, a noble of the Shatuo Turks tribe. Shi Jingtang rebelled against the Later Tang Dynasty (923e936 AD) under the help of the Khitan Empire and founded the Later Jin Dynasty, on the condition that the new dynasty would pledge allegiance and cede a large territory to the Khitan Empire. However, the Khitan Empire invaded it in January 944 AD and subjugated it in 947 AD. The disasters in the Later Jin Dynasty would be a cause of the invasion of the Khitan in 944 AD. In 943 AD, a rebellious official of the Later Jin Dynasty reported to the Khitan that, “the Later Jin Dynasty breached the protocol and suffered a great famine and ensuing national crisis. If we take advantage of their difficulties, we will subjugate the country all of a sudden.” (Table 1). When the Khitan turned to war in January 944 AD, the Later Jin Dynasty tried to sue for peace because of the disaster. It is recorded that, “At that time, there were drought and locust plague in the domain, the Later Jin suffered from the warfare, thus sent an envoy to sue for peace … The Khitan emperor refused with insulting remarks (Ouyang, 1053; Tuo, 1344).” We suggest that the drought and locust plague of 942e944 AD resulted in great famine and national crisis in the Later Jin Dynasty. There is no doubt that the decline of the Later Jin Dynasty should be seen as the result of various causes, and we do not intend to exclude political causes and other relevant causes. Historians suggest that the political causes, including improper diplomatic policy and the political talent of the Emperors of the Later Jin, caused the decline of the country (Lan, 1947; Han, 1979; Lü, 1984; Zheng, 1991; Franke and Twitchett, 1994; Twitchett and Smith, 2009). When Shi Chonggui (son of Shi Jingtang) ascended the throne in 942 AD, he acknowledged himself as the grandson of the Khitan Empire (as his father had been Khitan Emperor's fictive son), but refused to pledge allegiance to the Khitan Empire, thus exasperating Khitan (Sima, 1084). It is suggested that the Khitan Empire turned to war in 944 AD to punish Shi Chonggui for repudiating his father's relationship with it. On the other hand, the long-term cause of the decline of the Later Jin Dynasty would be that it pledged allegiance to the Khitan Empire and was burdened with the tribute to the latter ever since the founding of the Later Jin Dynasty. It is recorded that, “the Later Jin should pay 300,000 bolts of silk to Khitan every year. Besides the silk, it also sent jewellery, treasure, and delicacies to Khitan every day without end (Xue, 974)”, and “Khitan was insatiably greedy and extorted the Central Kingdom (i.e. the Later Jin)” (Xue, 974). In summary, the invasion of the Khitan and decline of the Later Jin Dynasty should be seen as the result of various causes, whereas the great famine caused by the severe drought and locust plague of 942e944 AD should be considered as a potential cause. 4. Conclusion The drought and locust plague of 942e944 AD in the Yellow River Basin were exceptionally severe. The disaster began in 942 AD, worsened in 943 AD, and eventually ended in 944 AD. The disaster caused a great famine and the death of one-tenth of the total population of the Later Jin Dynasty, a state whose territory was about the same as the basin of the middle and lower reaches of the Yellow River. The Later Jin Dynasty fell into an unprecedented na
eruption tional crisis. We suggest that the prolonged Eldgja beginning circa 934 AD in Iceland was a possible cause of the drought.

Please cite this article in press as: Fei, J., Zhou, J., The drought and locust plague of 942e944 AD in the Yellow River Basin, China, Quaternary International (2014), http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.quaint.2014.11.053

J. Fei, J. Zhou / Quaternary International xxx (2014) 1e8

The whole process of the drought and the locust plague most likely consists of the following, 1) the Eldgj
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