Available online at www.sciencedirect.com
ScienceDirect Procedia Economics and Finance 19 (2015) 27 – 36
7KH(FRQRPLHVRI%DONDQDQG(DVWHUQ(XURSH&RXQWULHVLQWKH&KDQJHG:RUOG(%((& 1LV6HUELD
7KH(FRQRPLF&ULVLV DQG(IIHFWVRQ,QFRPH7KH&DVHRI *UHHFH 0DJRXOLRV*HRUJHD .\GURV'LPLWULRVE$WKLDQRV6WHUJLRVE D
3URIHVVRU7(,RI&HQWUDO0DFHGRQLD7HUPD0DJQLVLDV6HUUHV*UHHFH $VVLVW3URIHVVRU7(,RI&HQWUDO0DFHGRQLD7HUPD0DJQLVLDV6HUUHV*UHHFH
E
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
&RUUHVSRQGLQJDXWKRU7HOID[ (PDLODGGUHVVPDJXOLRV#WHLVHUJU
2212-5671 © 2015 Published by Elsevier B.V. This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/).
Peer-review will be under responsibility of Department of Accountancy and Finance, Eastern Macedonia and Thrace Institute of Technology, Kavala, Greece. doi:10.1016/S2212-5671(15)00005-2
28
Magoulios George et al. / Procedia Economics and Finance 19 (2015) 27 – 36
© 2015 Published by Elsevier B.V. This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license 7KH$XWKRUV3XEOLVKHGE\(OVHYLHU%9 (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/). 6HOHFWLRQDQGSHHUUHYLHZXQGHUUHVSRQVLELOLW\RI(DVWHUQ0DFHGRQLDDQG7KUDFH,QVWLWXWHRI7HFKQRORJ\'HSDUWPHQWRI will be under responsibility of Department of Accountancy and Finance, Eastern Macedonia and Peer-review $FFRXQWDQF\)LDQQFH*UHHFH Thrace Institute of Technology, Kavala, Greece. .H\ZRUGVHFRQRPLFFULVLVLQFRPHHIIHFWV*UHHFH
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±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± 5HVHDUFK RQ WKH LPSDFW RI GHUHJXODWLRQ DQG JOREDOL]DWLRQ RQ LQFRPH LQHTXDOLWLHV ZLWKLQ FRXQWULHV VKRZV WKDW WRGD\¶VOHYHOVRIJOREDOL]DWLRQKDYHDVHULHVRIFRPPRQFKDUDFWHULVWLFVWRWKHSHULRGEXWDWWKHVDPHWLPH LV VXEVWDQWLDOO\ GLIIHUHQW 7RGD\ MXVW OLNH WKRVH GD\V PDQ\ GHYHORSLQJ DQG WUDQVLWLRQDO FRXQWULHV IDLOHG WR EH LQFOXGHGLQJOREDOHFRQRP\GHVSLWHWKHLUVLJQLILFDQWGHUHJXODWLRQDQGRSHQLQJRIWKHLUHFRQRPLHV:HDNGRPHVWLF FRQGLWLRQVLQVHFWRUVOLNHLQIUDVWUXFWXUHKXPDQFDSLWDODQGLQVWLWXWLRQVDQGRWKHUVDUHLPSRUWDQWIDFWRUVWKDWH[SODLQ ZK\VRPHUHJLRQVIDLOWRPRXQWLQJOREDOHFRQRP\GHVSLWHEURDGSROLWLFDOUHIRUPV*LRYDQQL$QGUHD&RUQLD S±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
Magoulios George et al. / Procedia Economics and Finance 19 (2015) 27 – 36
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¶VDQGWKH ¶VVKRZVDVWURQJSRVLWLYHFRUUHODWLRQEHWZHHQFKDQJHVLQPDUNHWLQHTXDOLWLHVDQGFKDQJHVLQUHGLVWULEXWLRQ)RU H[DPSOHDOWKRXJKUHGLVWULEXWLRQ ZDVLQFUHDVHGLQ6FDQGLQDYLDQFRXQWULHVGXULQJWKH¶VDQGWKH¶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¶V D FRXQWU\ ZLWK D SRSXODWLRQRIELOOLRQ *'3)URPGDWDUHSRUWHGLQWKH1HZ
29
30
Magoulios George et al. / Procedia Economics and Finance 19 (2015) 27 – 36
ZRPHQDQGWKHXQVNLOOHG0HDVXUHVRIILVFDODGMXVWPHQWWHQGWRHQKDQFHLQHTXDOLW\DQGWKHGDQJHURISRYHUW\DQG KDYHQHJDWLYHUHVXOWVRQWKHVLWXDWLRQRIWKHODERXUPDUNHWIRUWKH\RXQJDQGWKHHOGHUV7KHOHYHOVRIZHDOWKKDYH JHQHUDOO\ EHHQ LQFUHDVHG GXULQJ WKH ODVW GHFDGH ,Q (XUR ]RQH¶V ELJ FRXQWULHV WKH FRPELQHG QHW ILQDQFLDO DQG UHDO HVWDWH ZHDOWK DV D SHUFHQWDJH RI *'3 ZRUWK PXFK PRUH LQ WKDW 7KLV LQFUHDVH ZDV SDUWLFXODUO\ LPSUHVVLYH LQ )UDQFH IURP WR RI *'3 6SDLQ IURP WR RI *'3 ,WDO\ IURP WR RI*'3 DQG*HUPDQ\IURPWRRI*'3 ,Q*'3WHUPVQHWILQDQFLDODVVHWVZHUHVLJQLILFDQWO\ UHGXFHGLQ6RXWKHUQ(XURSHDQFRXQWULHVDQG,UHODQGLQWKHHQGRIFRPSDUHGWR'LHWHU%Ul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± D VWUXFWXUDOVKRUWDJHRQGHPDQG±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³)LVFDOZDVWDJHV´KDYHEHHQXVHGDVDQH[FXVHWRDWWDFNDWILUVWRQFLYLOVHUYDQWVVDODULHVIROORZHGE\ZDJHVDQG VRFLDO EHQHILWV RI ZRUNHUV LQ JHQHUDO %HKLQG WKLV H[FXVH OLHV WKDW FODLP WKDW KLJK ZRUNHUV DQG UHWLUHG LQFRPH LV UHVSRQVLEOHIRUWKHILVFDOFULVLV7KLVFODLPLVH[DPLQHGIURPWKHSHUVSHFWLYHRI³VRFLDOZDJH´IRUZDJHHDUQHUVRID FRXQWU\FDOFXODWHGDVWKHQHWEHQHILWWKH\UHFHLYHIURPVWDWHH[SHQGLWXUHDIWHUDOOWD[DWLRQSDLGE\WKHPLVUHPRYHG QVZ OE ±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¶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
Magoulios George et al. / Procedia Economics and Finance 19 (2015) 27 – 36
31
WKH SRSXODWLRQ¶V VWDQGDUG RI OLYLQJ &XWV LQ FLYLO VHUYDQWV¶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ıİȜ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ıİȜ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İȣȡȫ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±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
32
Magoulios George et al. / Procedia Economics and Finance 19 (2015) 27 – 36
LQFRPH UHGXFWLRQ GXULQJ WKH ODVW IRXU \HDUV 7KH DYHUDJH DQQXDO DYDLODEOH LQFRPH RI WKH WRWDO RI KRXVHKROGV IRU *UHHFHZDV(XURVLQDQGLWZDVUHGXFHGE\FRPSDUHGWR0RUHRYHUWKHSHUFHQWDJHRIWKH SRSXODWLRQLQGDQJHURISRYHUW\RUVRFLDOH[FOXVLRQLVPXFKKLJKHUWKDQDOO(8VLQFHLWLVLQDILJXUH KLJKHUWKDQDOORWKHU(8FRXQWULHVǼǼ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Ȋ $WWULEXWDEOHDQGFRPSOHPHQWDU\7D[ĭ PLOOLRQ(XURV 7D[SD\HUV Ȋ ĭ Ȋ ĭ Ȋ ĭ Ȋ ĭ Ȋ ĭ :DJHHDUQHUV UHWLUHG 2WKHUWD[SD\HUV
/HJDOSHUVRQV
7RWDO
7D[DEOHSURILWVPDLQDQGFRPSOHPHQWDU\WD[HV 6RXUFH0LQLVWU\RIILQDQFH*6,6GDWDSURFHVVHG
7DEOH9DULDWLRQRI7D[DEOH,QFRPHDQG$WWULEXWDEOH7D[ 7D[SD\HUV ,QFRPHȊ 7D[ĭ
:DJHHDUQHUVUHWLUHG
2WKHUWD[SD\HUV
/HJDOSHUVRQV
7RWDO
7D[DEOHSURILWVPDLQDQGFRPSOHPHQWDU\WD[HV 6RXUFH0LQLVWU\RIILQDQFH*6,6GDWDSURFHVVHG
2QWKHVWUXFWXUHRIWD[DEOHLQFRPHLWFDQEHVHHQWKDWGXULQJWKHFRQWULEXWLRQRIZDJHHDUQHUVUHWLUHG DQGRWKHUWD[SD\HUVZDVLQFUHDVHGZKLOHWKHFRQWULEXWLRQRIOHJDOSHUVRQVZDVVLJQLILFDQWO\UHGXFHG5HVSHFWLYHO\ RQWKHDWWULEXWDEOHWD[WKHFRQWULEXWLRQRIZDJHHDUQHUVUHWLUHGDQGRWKHUWD[SD\HUVZDVLQFUHDVHGWRWKHGRXEOHRI
33
Magoulios George et al. / Procedia Economics and Finance 19 (2015) 27 – 36
WKHUHVSHFWLYHLQFUHDVHRIWKHLQFRPHFRQWULEXWLRQDQGWKHFRQWULEXWLRQRIRWKHUWD[SD\HUVZDVUHGXFHGGHVSLWHWKH LQFUHDVHLQLQFRPHFRQWULEXWLRQ 7KHOHJDOSHUVRQVFRQWULEXWLRQZDVDOVRUHGXFHG7DEOHVDQG 7DEOH7D[DEOH,QFRPHȊ DQG$WWULEXWDEOHDQGFRPSOHPHQWDU\ 7D[ĭ 6WUXFWXUH 7D[SD\HUV Ȋ
ĭ
Ȋ
ĭ
Ȋ
ĭ
Ȋ
ĭ
Ȋ
ĭ
:DJH HDUQHUVUHWLUHG
2WKHUWD[SD\HUV
/HJDOSHUVRQV
7RWDO
6RXUFH0LQLVWU\RIILQDQFH*6,6GDWDSURFHVVHG
7DEOH9DULDWLRQRIWKHVWUXFWXUHRI7D[DEOH,QFRPHDQG$WWULEXWDEOH7D[ 7D[SD\HUV ,QFRPHȊ 7D[ĭ
:DJHHDUQHUVUHWLUHG 2WKHUWD[SD\HUV
/HJDOSHUVRQV
6RXUFH0LQLVWU\RIILQDQFH*6,6GDWDSURFHVVHG
)URPYDULDWLRQVRQLQFRPHDQGWD[HVGDWD LQVHOHFWHGFODVVHVWKHIROORZLQJUHVXOWVFDQEHGHGXFHG 7DEOH ,QLQFRPHVFDOHVRI±DQG±(XURVWKHSHUFHQWDJHRIWD[SD\HUVGHFODUHGLQFRPHDQG WD[ LV UHGXFHG LQ UHVSHFWLYH WRWDOV 2Q WKH FRQWUDU\ IRU LQFRPH VFDOHV ± DQG ± (XURVWKHUHLVDQLQFUHDVHLQDOOUHVSHFWLYHSHUFHQWDJHV,QLQFRPHVFDOH±(XURVWKHUHLVDQLQFUHDVH LQWKHSHUFHQWDJHRIWD[SD\HUVEXWUHGXFWLRQRIWKHGHFODUHGLQFRPHDQGWD[ZKLOHLQVFDOH±(XURV WKHUH LV DQ LQFUHDVH LQ WD[SD\HUV DQG GHFODUHG LQFRPH DQG UHGXFWLRQ LQ WD[ )LQDOO\ LQ VFDOH (XURV DQG DERYHZKLOHSHUFHQWDJHVRIWD[SD\HUVDQGLQFRPHLQWRWDOQXPEHUV UHPDLQWKHVDPHWKHUHLVDUHGXFWLRQLQWD[HV ,WLVFOHDUWKDWPHDVXUHVWDNHQXQGHUWKH0HPRUDQGXPDQGDSSOLHGVLQFHFRPSDUHGWREHIRUHWKHFULVLV UHVXOWHG LQ UHGXFWLRQV RQ LQFRPHV LQ WKH VFDOHV ± (XURV DQG ± (XURV LQFUHDVHLQVFDOH±(XURV KLJKHULQFUHDVH LQVFDOH±(XURVDQGHYHQ KLJKHU LQFUHDVH RI LQFRPH LQ VFDOHV ± DQG ±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
9DULDWLRQ
6FDOH±¼
7D[SD\HUV
3HUFHQWDJHRQWRWDOWD[SD\HUV
'HFODUHG,QFRPH;¼
3HUFHQWDJHRQLQFRPHWRWDO
7D[WRWDO;¼
34
Magoulios George et al. / Procedia Economics and Finance 19 (2015) 27 – 36
3HUFHQWDJHRIWD[WRWDO
6FDOH±¼
7D[SD\HUV
3HUFHQWDJHRQWRWDOWD[SD\HUV
'HFODUHG,QFRPH;¼
3HUFHQWDJHRQLQFRPHWRWDO
7D[WRWDO;¼
3HUFHQWDJHRIWD[WRWDO
6FDOH±¼
7D[SD\HUV
3HUFHQWDJHRQWRWDOWD[SD\HUV
'HFODUHG,QFRPH;¼
3HUFHQWDJHRQLQFRPHWRWDO
7D[WRWDO;¼
3HUFHQWDJHRIWD[WRWDO
6FDOH
7D[SD\HUV
3HUFHQWDJHRQWRWDOWD[SD\HUV
'HFODUHG,QFRPH;¼
3HUFHQWDJHRQLQFRPHWRWDO
7D[WRWDO;¼
3HUFHQWDJHRIWD[WRWDO
6FDOH
7D[SD\HUV
3HUFHQWDJHRQWRWDOWD[SD\HUV
'HFODUHG,QFRPH;¼
3HUFHQWDJHRQLQFRPHWRWDO
7D[WRWDO;¼
3HUFHQWDJHRIWD[WRWDO
6FDOH
7D[SD\HUV
3HUFHQWDJHRQWRWDOWD[SD\HUV
'HFODUHG,QFRPH;¼
3HUFHQWDJHRQLQFRPHWRWDO
7D[WRWDO;¼
3HUFHQWDJHRIWD[WRWDO
6FDOH± ȐȞȦ
7D[SD\HUV
3HUFHQWDJHRQWRWDOWD[SD\HUV
'HFODUHG,QFRPH;¼
3HUFHQWDJHRQLQFRPHWRWDO
7D[WRWDO;¼
3HUFHQWDJHRIWD[WRWDO
35
Magoulios George et al. / Procedia Economics and Finance 19 (2015) 27 – 36 6RXUFH0LQLVWU\RIILQDQFH*6,6GDWDSURFHVVHG
)URPGDWDRQ LQFRPHSHUVRXUFHLWLV \LHOGHGWKDWLQFRPSDUHGWRWKHUHLVDQLQFUHDVHLQLQFRPHV IURPWHQDQWVHUYLFHVZDJHV SURSHUW\IUHHODQFHUVWUDQVIHUDEOHVHFXULWLHVDQGLQFRPHIURPDEURDGZKLOHWKHUHLVD UHGXFWLRQRQLQFRPHVIURPFRPPHUFLDOLQGXVWULDODQGDJULFXOWXUHEXVLQHVVHV7DEOH 6RXUFH
7DEOH,QFRPHSHUVRXUFH;(XURV
9DULDWLRQ
7HQDQWVHUYLFHV
&RPPHUFLDO ,QGXVWULDO
3URSHUW\
)UHHODQFHUV
7UDQVIHUDEOH VHFXULWLHV
$JULFXOWXUH EXVLQHVVHV
,QFRPHIURP DEURDG
7RWDO
6RXUFH0LQLVWU\RIILQDQFH*6,6GDWDSURFHVVHG
2QWKHVWUXFWXUHRIWD[UHYHQXHVDVDSHUFHQWDJHRI*'3GXULQJDQLQFUHDVHLVIRXQGQRWRQO\WRGLUHFW EXWDOVRWRLQGLUHFWWD[HV DQGRIWKHWRWDOWD[UHYHQXHV RQ*'37KHELJJHUDQQXDOFKDQJHLV VHHQLQWKHILUVW\HDURIWKH0HPRUDQGXPDSSOLFDWLRQ)XUWKHUPRUHWKHVKDUHRILQGLUHFWWD[HVZDVLQFUHDVHG DIDFWRUWKDWLQFUHDVHVLQFRPHLQHTXDOLW\7DEOH
7DEOH6WUXFWXUHRI7D[5HYHQXHVDV*'3SHUFHQWDJH 'LUHFW7D[HV ,QGLUHFW7D[HV 7RWDORIWD[UHYHQXHV
$QQXDOYDULDWLRQ
6RXUFH([SODQDWRU\5HSRUWVRI6WDWH%XGJHWGDWDSURFHVVHG
HVWLPDWLRQV
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
36
Magoulios George et al. / Procedia Economics and Finance 19 (2015) 27 – 36
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¶V5HSRUWIRUWKH