The EV paradox – A multilevel study of why Stockholm is not a leader in electric vehicles

Environmental Innovation and Societal Transitions 14 (2015) 26–44

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Environmental Innovation and Societal Transitions journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/eist

The EV paradox – A multilevel study of why Stockholm is not a leader in electric vehicles Björn Nykvist a,∗, Måns Nilsson a,b a

Stockholm Environment Institute, Stockholm, Sweden KTH Royal Institute of Technology, Department for Sustainable Development, Environmental Science and Engineering, Drottning Kristinas väg 30, 100 44 Stockholm, Sweden b

a r t i c l e

i n f o

Article history: Available online 22 July 2014

Keywords: Climate Electrification Socio-technical system Sweden Transport Vehicles

a b s t r a c t Despite seemingly favourable conditions for alternative road-based transport technologies, progress on battery electric vehicles (BEVs) have been slow in Stockholm. We investigate why, applying the multilevel perspective for socio-technical transitions to a local case study of Stockholm. Using in-depth interviews with key actors we trace processes and discuss possible explanations at niche, regime and landscape levels. The results show that niche developments are clearly lacking, resulting in limited experience and knowledge of BEVs, and enduring conceptions among both policymakers and consumers. Regime actors are also ambivalent towards BEVs, leading to limited regime action with for example car companies moving more to Plugin Hybrid Electric Vehicles instead of BEVs. Finally, there is uncertainty as a result of a lack of strong policy signals for BEVs, in turn driven by policy makers’ aversion against technology-specific support. We outline what governance gaps need to be addressed to induce faster progress on BEV uptake. © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

1. Introduction Today, the transport sector stands out as one of the key sectors that has not been able to “bend the curves” on greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions (Chapman, 2007) and with the highest projected ∗ Corresponding author at: Linnégatan 87 D, 115 23 Stockholm, Sweden. Tel.: +46 73 707 8565; fax: +46 8 723 0348. E-mail address: [email protected] (B. Nykvist). http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.eist.2014.06.003 2210-4224/© 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

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emission growth rates (UNEP, 2012). While energy production, buildings, and industrial emissions have generally been able to achieve at least relative decoupling of emissions, transport-related GHG emissions keep increasing also in many high-income countries. Furthermore, air pollution and noise impacts often create severe public health problems in urban areas (EEA, 2012a). As a result of these unresolved challenges, sustainable transportation has for some years been a policy priority around the world including in the EU (European Commission, 2001) and Sweden (Regeringskansliet, 2008). A transition towards more sustainable transportation involves a range of new innovations, solutions and policy measures including: reduction in transport demand, increased efficiency, modal shifts such as shifting from private to public transport, and new technologies such as biofuels, electrification, and hydrogen fuel cell (Nykvist and Whitmarsh, 2008). This paper focuses on one part of this transition, namely the deployment and up-scaling of battery electric vehicles (BEVs). 1.1. The promise of the BEV A key reason for looking closer on the dynamics of BEV innovation is the significant drawbacks associated with other alternative technologies. Biofuels is questioned due to limited primary energy as well as negative environmental effects such as land use change and competition with food production (EEA, 2006; WBGU, 2008). Hydrogen Fuel Cell vehicles (HFC) vehicles have long been researched (Solomon and Banerjee, 2006) but the technology is far (likely decades) from a scale-up due to high costs and major infrastructure challenges (Grahn et al., 2009; Pollet et al., 2012; Romm, 2006). More imminently on the agenda are therefore plugin hybrid electric vehicles (PHEV) and pure BEV. BEV enables the reduction of local air pollution and the potential climate benefits are very large (Jacobson, 2009; Tran et al., 2012). Because of this potential, and the availability of the technology, there is today broad political agreement for the need to deploy BEVs. At the global level, the International Energy Agency has launched a multi-government policy forum dedicated to accelerating the introduction and adoption of electric vehicles worldwide and according to their most recent outlook they put the global cumulative target for the BEV stock at 20 million in 2020 (IEA, 2013). Groups from Sweden industry has put forward a vision of 600,000 BEV and PHEVs on the road by 2020, but with no specific target on BEV. We show in this paper that the favouring of PHEV in Sweden as a country influences local developments in Stockholm. However, there are other environmental impacts to be accounted for and there are so far few complete life-cycle assessments on BEV (Hawkins et al., 2012). Ultimately the environmental performance and CO2 mitigation potential of BEV depend on the both the production, use, and recycling of the specific technologies applied (e.g., the batteries, inverters, motor), as well as the electricity generation mix (Hawkins et al., 2013, 2012). There is considerable disagreement on how to calculate CO2 intensity in future projections. But in the Nordic context, where the power system is dominated by low carbon energy sources, significant emissions reductions are possible when scaling out BEVs (Albrecht et al., 2013; Vattenfall, 2010). BEV has seen a rapid development over the past years with the introduction of growing numbers of commercially available electric vehicles (Fig. 1). Cumulative sales worldwide have increased tenfold in two years from 20,000 in 2010 to almost 200,000 in 2012 (IEA, 2013). Some of the recently introduced cars are only for sale in specific states in the US (e.g., the Toyota RAV4 EV) where legislation force car manufacturers to develop and sell Zero Emission Vehicles. But a growing number of cars are introduced globally with a performance comparable to Internal Combustion Engine cars (ICE) in terms of characteristics such as top speed and number of seats. Cost for a given range is a major constraint before BEV can become on par with ICEs (MacLean and Lave, 2003; Tran et al., 2012) but as we show in this paper (Section 3.3.1), battery prices are actually declining rapidly. Hence, while reports and the academic literature still tend to put forward the same challenges as a decade ago, the landscape is now rapidly changing. As recently as 2007 the California Air Resources Board expert panel on Zero Emission Vehicle technologies projects that BEV would not sell in numbers above 100,000 per year until 2030 (Kalhammer et al., 2007). This level was actually reached by 2012 (IEA, 2013). Scholars are also arguing that batteries are closer to commercial viability than often recognized, highlighting that there is as much an information and perceptual challenges related to a mismatch between consumer demand and technology development, as actual technology

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Fig. 1. Year of introduction of BEV models for commercial sales in EU and/or US. The recent development since 2008 is sometimes referred to as the second wave of BEV, with the first taking place in the mid 1990s. Data sources: Based on list of vehicles in de Santiago et al. (2012) company press releases, and news items, but does not induce concept cars, test-fleets and cars not capable of typical highway speed (top speed less than 110 km/h).

development per se (Axsen et al., 2010). The case for high technological and cost barriers to BEV might hold a similarly false notion. It has long been known that BEV hold other unique advantages valuable to consumers in their own right (Kurani et al., 1996), and while it is true that consumers are not willing to pay much extra up front for BEV (Tran et al., 2012) the recent success of high-end vehicle manufacturer Tesla Motors (Hirsch, 2013) illustrates that for certain vehicle categories the additional cost of batteries is now low enough to sell compelling and competitive BEVs. In summary, technological developments and recent trends in sales indicates a shifting landscape indicating a potential acceleration in BEV uptake. 1.2. Personal road transport and environmental innovation in Stockholm Our study of how the uptake of EVs is taking place examines the case of Stockholm, Sweden. The empirical case focuses purely on Stockholm, but when the national context matters we discuss Sweden as a whole. Thus, we start our analysis by observing that Sweden is often viewed as both an environmental pioneer (Lundqvist, 2004; Sarasini, 2009) and a top innovation country. In the European Commission’s Innovation Scoreboard, Sweden came out as No. 1 of EU’s member states in 2013 (European Commission, 2013). In the global innovation index 2013, Sweden came out as No. 2 worldwide.2 Sweden has also been a leading nation in advanced engineering industry in general and in automotive industry in particular with both personal cars (Volvo Cars and Saab) and world leading truck manufacturers (Volvo AB and Scania). National environmental legislation has been pioneering in many respects, for instance with the world’s first carbon tax (1991), which all but removed all fossil sources from Sweden’s power and heating systems (Prop, 1990/91:95) and the development of a range of environmental policy integration measures in the late 1990s (Nilsson, 2005). The frontrunner status of Sweden may, however, have become depleted somewhat in later years. Yale University’s

2 Cornell University and INSEAD. Global Innovation Index 2013. Available at http://globalinnovationindex.org/content.aspx? page=data-analysis (accessed 29.11.13).

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Fig. 2. BEV fleet of Stockholm County (Stockholm Län) compared to Oslo County (Oslo Fylke) per million capita. Sources: Grøn Bil Norge http://www.gronnbil.no and Statistiska Centralbyrån (SCB) http://www.scb.se.

environmental performance index for 2012, Sweden slipped to No. 9 globally but still rank among the “strongest performers”. Combining these three leadership traits Sweden also pioneered the first wave of alternative vehicle fuels both through R&D and development of a range of alternative vehicle technology niches (Hillman et al., 2011, 2008; Magnusson and Rickne, 2012) but also in particular through regulation, e.g., the requirement for filling stations to supply biofuels (lag 2005:1248) pushing out ethanol nationwide in the early 2000s. Moving on to our local case in focus here Stockholm as a city has also enjoyed a strong environmental reputation. It was the first city to receive the award European Green Capital by the EU Commission in 2010 (European Commission, 2010). The motivation for this award states that “the City has an integrated administrative system that guarantees that environmental aspects are considered in budgets, operational planning, reporting and monitoring, the City has cut carbon dioxide emissions by 25 per cent per inhabitant since 1990, and the City has adopted the objective of being fossil fuel free by 2050”.3 Following the lead of London’s and Singapore, Stockholm was among the first cities in the world to introduce congestion charges (Stockholms Stad, 2007), and the recent report “Stockholm – Green Economy Leader Report” (LCE, 2013) reinforces this image of Stockholm and Sweden being in the forefront on environmental innovation and political steering towards a low carbon future. 1.3. Aim of study – examining the EV paradox In other words, there is every reason to expect that Stockholm, a “European Green Capital” of Sweden, an environmental, automotive and innovation leader, would be an international frontrunner when it comes to the introduction of EVs – the central solution on the horizon today to make advancements on sustainable road-based mobility. However, a quick look at the latest statistics of registered BEV in Stockholm speak for itself (Fig. 2). Sweden lags behind both neighbouring Norway and Denmark and while Oslo municipality recently initiated a large procurement round of 1000 BEV

3

City of Stockholm international website http://international.stockholm.se/egc (accessed 26.11.13).

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(Andrine Gran, 2012) similar initiatives in the city of Stockholm (more than twice the size of Oslo) contain fewer than 100 vehicles. This is what we consider the “EV paradox”. The aim of this paper is first and foremost to explain this paradox and to identify key barriers and developments that are lacking. The overarching question for the paper follows from this: Why is the allegedly greenest capital in Europe, placed in one of the true environmental frontrunner countries, with traditionally progressive environmental policy, in addition an innovation leader, having a vibrant automotive and power engineering industry – not rapidly scaling up one of the major solutions to one of the major environmental challenges of our time? And if policy makers want to close this gap, what general areas of intervention need their attention? We examine this overarching question using a socio-technical approach (Geels, 2004; Smith et al., 2005). The approach is used to study interactions between society, markets, industries, culture and technology, and sheds light on how technological systems, institutional rules and the actors that benefit from them in different ways form stable regimes that lock societies into certain paths of technology and practice. The paper studies the links between these systems components. In this paper we use a specific incarnation of socio-technical analysis; the multi-level perspective (MLP) which focuses on the dynamics between incumbent regimes that dominate the socio-technical system and niches where novelty emerges and experimentation take place driving innovation at a faster pace than in the established regime (Geels, 2012, 2004). This interaction in turn takes place in a larger landscape for socio-technical change, i.e. the context of macro-level drivers such as policy directions, market prices of commodities and societal culture and beliefs. The socio-technical perspective helps us establish empirical categories of data that shed light on different types of barriers and drivers. What are actually the main hurdles? Is there regime resistance that impede innovation and niche development? Is there a lack of correct/effective policy instruments? Or is it simply too slow technological development and cost reductions for things like batteries? Furthermore, are the key factors and barriers internal to a country or city, or is the transition constrained at the EU or global level? We deduce three hypotheses (one for each level in the MLP framework) drawing on previous analysis in Sweden (Albrecht et al., 2013; Magnusson and Rickne, 2012) to explore these questions. The final aim of the paper is to use this empirical research to contribute to recent developments in this literature critiquing the MLP framework for not taking more explicit account of the spatial aspects of socio-technical transitions (Coenen and Truffer, 2012; Coenen et al., 2012). This debate calls for more spatially explicit frameworks and empirical research and we thus use the following three hypothesis to explore the Stockholm case study both empirically and to inform our theoretical discussion. 1.4. Hypothesis explored Hypothesis 1. The niche hypothesis. The relatively slow development of EV in Stockholm is the result of a lack of niches or poorly functioning niches. There are few spaces for niche development and niche actors and activities such as demonstration fleets and new market are few. This leads to few opportunities to experiment, engage with EV technology, learning and scale out. Examining this hypothesis, our research design examines, first, what actors exist at the niche level and to what extent they are connecting, and second what are the levels and types of activity that can be found at the niche level, and how do they perform in terms of learning and growing (Raven, 2008). Hypothesis 2. The regime hypothesis. The relatively slow development of EV in Stockholm is the result of a strong ICE car regime in Sweden. Anchored in the Swedish automotive industry and coupled institutional, cognitive and normative structures, the system tends to induce incremental developments of the transport systems, favouring, e.g., hybrids and efficiency improvements of the ICE, as opposed to more transformative changes such as BEV. Examining the second hypothesis, we examine how regime players (car manufacturers, transport planners) respond to the EV opportunities, whether they are driving the development in tandem with niches, and what cognitive and normative structures that shape the regime response (Geels, 2002). Hypothesis 3. The landscape hypothesis. The relatively slow development of EV in Stockholm is the result of a lack of economic incentives, policy directions, and visions at different scales. This results in

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a weak overall signal, that a transition to EVs in Stockholm is far off and/or highly uncertain, offering few incentives and prospects for regime or niche development in favour of EVs. Examining the third hypothesis, we consider the overall system of national incentives that are at play, as well as market aspects such as technology costs (Hillman et al., 2011). 2. Theory and method The MLP offers analytical tools to make explicit the interplay between developments at niche, regime and landscape level, where many different types of interactions and resulting alternative transitions are possible (Geels and Schot, 2007; Markard and Truffer, 2008). The literature is primarily based on historical case studies with theoretical analysis of past technological transitions (e.g., Geels, 2012) and significant developments have been made in literature the past decade (Geels, 2011). However, the theory is generic and does not assume a certain spatial or jurisdictional scale to delineate cases (Coenen et al., 2012; Hodson and Marvin, 2010; Lawhon and Murphy, 2012). In practice, both theoretical and empirical studies often refer to national boundaries to illustrate the usefulness of MLP (Lawhon and Murphy, 2012), which is indeed the primary focus in recent efforts to apply MLP for transportation research (Geels, 2012; Nykvist and Whitmarsh, 2008). However, there is now an emerging research agenda recognizing the need for a geography perspective on sustainability transitions (Coenen and Truffer, 2012) with examples of locally explicit case studies that apply MLP and transitions theory, e.g., to the city level (Hodson and Marvin, 2010; Maassen, 2012). Key is that even if the generic MLP framework is applicable to any given scale, the niche and regime actors involved in a transition and the patterns of structuration are rarely possible to fully contain to a single geographical scale (Lawhon and Murphy, 2012). Car manufacturers are global actors, but with presence and influence across scales. Hence, in practice also local studies need to relate to the global innovation system and such cross scale analysis has not been developed much in previous MLP work (Bulkeley et al., 2011; Hodson and Marvin, 2010; Lawhon and Murphy, 2012). This is an important gap if the MLP framework is applied in research on automobility transitions since many variables related to regime concepts such as norms, prevailing policy, incumbent regime actors, and niche activities, are locally or nationally determined, but the transition is at the same time highly influenced and dependant on patterns of niche and regime interactions in a highly connected global socio-technical system. Hodson and Marvin (2010, p. 484) concluded that “when utilizing these concepts in relation to particular problems, contexts or scales these terms need to be clarified.” and this paper helps address this gap. We do so by both addressing the need for deeper empirical cases and place based analysis. Following Bulkeley et al. (2011) and Maassen (2012) we examine a specific city with its specific system characteristics. We also develop an adapted MLP framework that explicitly clarifies what spatial scales are considered. 2.1. MLP framework for local socio-technical studies We consider the local MLP case as a sub-part to the higher MLP (Fig. 3). Some niche actors are local only, some are active locally, nationally, and globally, and some are national and global only, and so on. The corresponding logic applies also to the regime level. For example, in one sense, the personal mobility regime, with the car industry as a central player, is a global regime, where technology developments (part suppliers and coalitions of manufacturers collaborating on R&D), rule systems (e.g., harmonized safety and emission standards) and actor constellations all operate at the global level (global production and distribution systems). In another cut, the transport and infrastructure system of the Stockholm region can be understood as a regime where the city government and its administration are central actors. With such a lens, the global car industry (which has no real presence in Stockholm beyond retail sales) becomes part of the landscape. Third, when it comes to electrification of transport, new industrial actors become relevant, such as battery and electronic component manufacturers (e.g., Panasonic and Samsung) that despite their size and global presence can be argued to operate in new niches that present themselves not in a specific local context but actually emerge and grow in the global market system. At the national scale, the actors of the road-based personal mobility regime in Sweden include car manufacturers, parts and sub-contractors to the car industry, university researchers, sales and services

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Fig. 3. Adapted MLP framework based on Geels (2002). Structuration increases vertically in the same way as in the original framework. The x-axis indicates spatial scale enabling a better representation of the difference between local, national and global regime actors and patterns, and the understanding that global car manufacturers can be considered both important niche actors locally, as well as belonging to the regime gradually adopting behaviours at the global scale. Examples of niche actors and innovations from Section 3.

networks, refuelling infrastructure, public procurers and leasing businesses etc. Moving to the local scale, several of these are represented in Stockholm, but some are not. The “Swedish” regime is in turn present in Stockholm to some degree. We make these different spatial patterns explicit in the MLP framework in the following way. For each level of structuration (niche, regimes, landscape), often illustrated as horizontal planes in the MLP framework, we indicate the spatial dimension along the xaxis. The generic character of the framework with structuration not necessarily linked to spatial scale (Hodson and Marvin, 2010) is kept, but at the same time the approach makes explicit the hierarchical patterns that exist through geographical scales. 2.2. Methods In order to investigate the three hypotheses of the locally specific niche developments, regime dynamics, and landscape conditions, the case study method of process tracing was chosen, focusing on the recent historical development of EVs, written documentation in the form of reports and local policy, and transcripts of in-depth interviews (George and Bennett, 2005). The method is suitable for “intensive study of one deviant case, a case that fails to fit existing theories, may provide significant theoretical insights” (George and Bennett, 2005, p. 7). Hence, it is appropriate both as a tool to understand the details of niche and regime dynamics of Stockholm as a deviant case that in theory should be well progressed and supportive of BEV, and as a method to contribute to theoretical debates around the MLP framework. As the case is local in character, and there is only a limited amount of documentation

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available, the case study relies heavily on in-depth interviews and their transcriptions as the primary data source. The first set of interviews was identified through documents and news items, and the following remaining interviews identified by asking each new informant for new relevant actors to include (Kvale, 1996; Noy, 2008). The aim was to cover all key actors important too, or actively working with, the developments of BEV in Stockholm and interviews were conducted until no more key actors were identified through each interview. In total 11 actors were identified, but with some redundancy where actors have very similar roles and agendas (2 power companies) and 10 interviews were carried out. In addition, approaching the final count we experienced rapidly “diminishing returns” in terms of new information emerging in the interviews (as these were informant interviews not respondent interviews) (Kvale, 1996, p. 101). The majority of the actors are supportive of BEV, but few except Nissan are biased in having direct economic stakes of favouring BEV developments. Each actor was interview with a semi-structured interview guide with sections of open questions related to; (1) Drivers, barriers, and BEV technological progress; (2) New experiments, and activities (niche development); (3) Questions specific on regime resistance and engagement with BEV (regime dynamics), and finally; (4) the governance and policy measures supporting BEV development (landscape and policy developments) Respondents were promised anonymity, while stating the organizational affiliation, and interviews recorded for cross checking of notes and quotes if the respondents were comfortable with this (7 out of 10). Notes were transcribed immediately after each interview resulting in fully transcribed data in case of recorded interview and partly transcribed based on written notes in unrecorded cases. Coding of transcribed data was done both with initial codes based on the four sections of the guide (Bowen, 2008), and then with open coding, aggregating themes from common categories of statements on each of the three hypotheses as well as emerging themes in the data (Coffey and Atkinson, 1996; Patton, 2002). The aggregated patterns from themes in coded data provided the results on key aspects of each level in the MLP framework, and one emerging pattern on the importance of learning, knowledge of, and use of BEV, a causal factor that was not expected beforehand and therefore had no proposed hypothesis. Results generally consist of our descriptions of these aggregated patterns, but we also use some illustrative quotes on important cognitive and normative patterns where the actual wordings of informants are particularly telling of the process or barrier highlighted. 3. Results 3.1. Niche developments Among the earliest experiment with BEV in Stockholm were some 10–15 converted Mercedes 307 transport vehicles used by Televerket (the Swedish formerly state-owned telecommunications company and agency) in the early 1980s and some of these were used in Stockholm (Styrelsen för tekniks utveckling, 1981, p. 167). Before 1980 only a handful of converted BEV vehicles were produced annually (Styrelsen för tekniks utveckling, 1981, pp. 143–144). The City of Stockholm has experimented actively with BEV since the 1990s, and today operates ca 50 BEV, some of which belong to this first wave of BEV (Interview City of Stockholm). The initiative started in the early 1990s and was initiated by the former Swedish Development Agency (NUTEK) enabling a collaboration on BEV (project STEG) between the largest cities in Sweden (Stockholm City, 2010) and latter procurement of BEV. The first question in each interview was an open-ended one, asking: “What drives the development of electric vehicles in Stockholm?” and the answer given was typically “Nothing”, or “Very little”. When informants were asked about new initiatives, test fleets, and experiments, the actors working with these, and if there were any periods in time where the number of BEV cars in Stockholm had increased, very little emerged. Of the resourceful actors that could act decisively, only the City of Stockholm is working in an active niche, by running the procurement programme “Elbilsupphandlingen” together with Vattenfall, the largest power utility in Sweden, with the aim to help procurement of BEV and PHEV both locally in Stockholm and throughout Sweden. This is the major actor developing charging infrastructure in conjunction with public parking (Interviews with City of Stockholm and Stockholm Parking). In total 25% of the new BEV bought in Sweden in 2012 were procured through this initiative making this niche experiment not only important for the Stockholm, but for the whole of Sweden.

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Apart from this initiative there are few niches for BEV in Stockholm. In the interviews the second most often mentioned important niche actor is a courier service that operates only a total of 6 Nissan Leaf (interview Ryska Posten and Nissan dealership). The major taxi companies of Stockholm and rental agencies have one or a few cars each. A small number of actors are also experimenting with fast chargers and other charging solutions. Finally, there is one civil society initiative, “Elbil 2020”, organized by a community of collaborating housing cooperatives. Elbil2020 organizes circa ten different projects on both BEV and PHEV, including demonstration fleets, organizing panels of consumer testing (today 300 people operating BEV and PHEV), organizing public and private charging infrastructure, and organizes seminars that bring together citizens, local politicians and commercial actors (Interview Elbil2020). The organization is, however, small and so far primarily influences development in the comparatively affluent city district of Hammarby Sjöstad. 3.1.1. National and global actors supporting local niche activities Throughout our interviews the actors mentioned pushing for introduction of BEV are the power companies, with an obvious interest in supporting charging solutions if sound business models emerge, the municipalities of the Stockholm region, and the automaker Nissan. Nissan is important both due to the local Nissan car dealership that actively work for sales of BEV (Interview Nissan), and due to the marketing of the Nissan Leaf car and the support given for infrastructure developments by Nissan Europe in collaboration with some other local actors (A few municipalities, McDonald’s, and the courier service mentioned above). Nissan Europe is one of very few actors behind the limited fast-charging infrastructure in Stockholm, another being one fuel supplier (OKQ8). In other words, actors that are to be considered national Swedish actors, e.g., the national procurement programme, other power companies, fuel providers, and even global actors such as Nissan, are more important for the current niche development than local niche actors. Momentum is gained as these actors from the national or global level show interest in the local EV development, and begin organizing or contributing to local initiatives. 3.1.2. Lack of niches explain lack of experience of BEV and cognitive barriers The relatively few and highly limited niche activities result in few opportunities to engage with and learn more about BEV. Throughout the interviews it is clear that a very strong barrier for a more rapid development of BEV in Stockholm is the lack of personal experiences with BEV. This leads to misconceptions of what a BEV is, what it is capable of, and how a BEV can be used. Since the vast majority of BEV have limited range (all but Tesla Motors Roadster and Model S with close to 500 km range) current BEV are necessarily different to ICEs in terms ownership and user patterns. This constitutes an important cognitive barrier since most BEV requires a change in perception of what a car is and changed behavioural patterns where BEV car ownership need to be complemented with, e.g., renting of an ICE for longer trips. Interviewees highlight that most people that try a BEV through the test fleets are very sceptical before their first experience, reluctant in view of the inability to drive long distance on one charge, and uncomfortable with the limited charging options. Before drivers have had the personal experience, fast charging is perceived as very important, but after a while, this need declines, and in the end play a very minor role in people’s minds. Using the BEV, drivers adapt, and start valuing other benefits such charging while parking, range anxiety declines, new user patterns emerge, and they leave the test phase with a positive impression. Due to the lack of niches, where consumers, policy actors, and private companies procuring vehicles could come in contact with BEV, this cognitive and normative change in perception of BEV is very slow. This pattern is neatly summarized by one of our interviewees, who conclude: “A common claim one gets is that there are no fast chargers. But you do not have to refuel! Just get used to the idea to do something different. When do you need fast chargers? You don’t use them – you drive with the range that you have.” Meeting people again after having the vehicle for a while they conclude: “I had such strange questions before [I tested it]”. 3.1.3. Support for the niche hypothesis We identify strong support for our first hypothesis. There are very few local initiatives, test fleets are small, and there is limited experience on BEV use to generate knowledge and spread awareness.

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BEVs are not visible locally. There is clearly a lack of initiatives and support for local experiments and alternatives to the national level support systems that could encourage more niche developments. 3.2. Regime resistance and adaptations The Stockholm region has no car manufacturers, and the local transport regime actors are primarily the policy actors including local and regional politicians and planners. The regime includes the transport infrastructure, where Stockholm has a strong record in public transport. This would potentially help explain the lack of interest in BEV and other sustainable person road transport technologies. In other words, the “the landscape pressure” for sustainable transport would be absorbed by public transport and would not create societal demand for BEV. However, despite a high share of public transportation, local infrastructure planning still indicates a strong dominance of the car regime, and car use levels are high in Stockholm – similar to those of for example Oslo – and the trend is towards greater share of car use (SL, 2010). Following the adapted MLP framework we consider the national regime actors that are locally represented in the analysis. This includes foreign and global car companies, such as Nissan, present through vendors of cars on the Swedish market. It also includes the Swedish car manufacturers Volvo and Saab (in the late 90s acquired by Ford and General Motors respectively, and in recent years sold to Chinese companies), who dominated sales until late 1990s. (Volvo continues to be the bestselling brand in Sweden.) 3.2.1. Reluctant adaptation and compliance The car industry, clearly at the centre of the personal mobility regime, constitutes a barrier also locally in Stockholm, but shows signs of adaptation. On the one hand they adapt when policy frameworks set the direction. From our interviews we conclude that they are all perceived to be generally in favour of the currently unfolding electrification of the power train in ICE cars. Due to more strict emissions regulation globally and in particular the requirements of average CO2 emissions in EU and Zero Emission Vehicles requirements in (parts of) the US, all major car manufacturers have developed electric vehicles for specific markets (e.g., compliance cars in California) and put significant resources into improved fuel efficiency and hybridization. On the other hand, they are careful not to carry the costs of spearheading the technology and market development, and the result is a reluctance to engage with development and promotion of pure electric vehicles. Nissan was the only manufacturer with a reasonable consumer BEV car on the market in Sweden in 2013 and the only car company mentioned as a driving force in our case study. Other major brands on the Swedish market like Toyota, Opel, and Audi, are primarily pushing for PHEV cars. Volvo, being the only major remaining Swedish car manufacturer in Sweden, belongs to the category of car manufacturers that now push for PHEV. They recently began manufacturing engines developed for seamless integration hybrid solutions representing an investment of 2 billion SEK (Stäpel, 2013) part of a 73 Billion SEK investment programme geared at new vehicle platform supporting PHEV (Volvo, 2013). Volvo did engage early on in the R&D of HEV. However, these initiatives never lead to HEV being released to the market as Ford purchased Volvo and centralized HEV R&D (Magnusson and Rickne, 2012). Interest remerged in 2005–2010 due to debates on climate change, increasing fuel prices and the EU standards for average CO2 emissions from manufacturers. A limited test fleet of adapted battery electric versions of Volvo C30 available for lease since 2010 have not been followed through with BEV being developed for sales and the C30 model programme as such is being discontinued (Vijayenthiran, 2012). The recent efforts of other brands such as BMW, currently introducing the all-electric i3, and the future models by highly popular WV (all-electric Golf and Up models) were rarely mentioned in interviews. In summary, there is little support at the regime level in Stockholm for pure BEV, and the car industry and their sales of vehicles in Sweden is geared towards hybridization and PHEV instead of pure BEV. 3.2.2. Cognitive and normative barriers in the regime Regime dynamics is also about the interplay between hard technological systems factors and soft institutional factors such as societal norms, values and attitudes (normative structures) and knowledge

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and perspectives (cognitive structures). Herein lays a particular stickiness in the regime. Our interviews suggest that there are specific interpretations and cognitive frames for what a car is and should be. One reason for the reluctance towards BEV in the car industry can be the human capital devoted to the internal combustion engine (ICE). Indeed, the engine development is often considered the “heart of the car industry” and the main performance attribute for cars. Removing the ICE and instead simply purchase electrical engines from electronic engineering firms, means removing a core part of the auto manufacturers’ identity. It would also signify a dramatic change of the industrial logic and require a shift in skills and capacities in the car manufacturing industry itself. Also, some interviewees mention the problem of significantly reduced after sales service revenue for car companies of the pure BEV compared to the much more complex ICE vehicle. The normative structure, as an integral part of the regime, also links to a specific consumer attitudes–where the popular preference in Sweden is for large cars as a prioritized family equipment, and a symbol of welfare and status (Henriksson, 2008). As a result, for a long time, Sweden has had, together with Germany, the heaviest and most energy intensive car fleet in the EU (ICCT, 2012). BEV vehicles, on the contrary, are with few exemptions (e.g., Tesla Model S) typically small and nimble and signal entirely different values. From consumers, respondents frequently hear that the EV is not “a real car”. As one of our interviewees express this barrier: “A lot of BEVs cannot have a towing hook. A barrier in Sweden! If you have a company car, you have it as first choice for everything. Pulling a trailer, for instance. Drive to the summer cottage. If you cannot do that you have to rethink.” The question is how stable and resistant to change these normative and cognitive structures are. Statistics over driver’s licenses in Stockholm now show a rapid decline among young drivers: the young generation places much less priority and value on personal mobility than previous generations. For those that are still enthusiastic about private cars, testing periods suggest that with even initial experience, people are prepared to rather quickly rethink the personal mobility paradigm. One interviewee recollected a statement by a Stockholm city focus-group respondent, who said: “First I did not want it–now I don’t want to be without it”. 3.2.3. Regime dynamics on charging infrastructure Lack of charging infrastructure, and fast charging in particular, is a complex barrier to disentangle. Many interviewed actors argue that the lack of charging infrastructure is of limited importance since most cars will be charged over night at parking places at homes (and work). Range anxiety is also seen as a limited problem, if consumers are only able to try out BEV and develop new user patterns (as discussed in Section 3.1.3). However, fast chargers are important as a signal that the BEV is here to stay and as a remedy for range anxiety. Although for people that start using EVs they find that one uses fast charging much less than anticipated–they find that they can “trust” the battery much like you trust the gas tank indicator on a conventional car. As one of our informants expressed it: “Of course [the charger] has a symbolic value, as we have seen in Japan – there they started by setting up one fast charger, then another, and then they measured the driving patterns, and then people dared to go much farther. But they had not charged more, but instead they dare return home with a more depleted battery. So, certainly [chargers] contribute to reducing range anxiety. Here, regime actors are to some degree active. The City of Stockholm has given the publicly owned parking company the task and mandate to encourage and build out public charging and citizens can request that chargers are built in garages with parking for rent. However, politicians are also clearly reluctant to act proactively in advance of demand for charging infrastructure. They (with few exceptions) do not contribute to the development fast-charging infrastructure and are against charging along public roads (Interview Stockholm Parking, Fortum). This latter fact is clearly a regime barrier in that the majority of citizens in Stockholm lives in apartment blocks and park their cars on the road, and not in a private or public garage. 3.2.4. Support for the regime hypothesis To conclude, we find some support for the ICE regime being particularly strong in Sweden. Volvo, with strong market shares, has favoured a slow progression of hybrids over pure BEV. These car manufacturers are strongly associated with the prevalent norms in society of what a car is and how it is

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Fig. 4. Recent decline in average CO2 emission of cars in Sweden and the EU. Source: EEA (2012b).

used, and this cross-fertilization of regime actors and norms in both industry and among consumers currently constitute a strong barrier for BEV. However, it is also the case that the regime shows quite some ability to adapt. When stricter polices have been introduced in EU on average emissions of CO2 , auto manufacturers do adapt, and build more efficient cars. When consumers get hands-on experience their attitudes change. The regime level barriers must therefore be understood in the light of the regime responding to policy change at the landscape level. 3.3. Policy landscape drivers and barriers 3.3.1. Prices of fuels and technologies A key factor is relative prices of different technologies. One driver in this regard is the increasing fuel cost, both due to increasing oil prices and higher taxes on energy and CO2 (raising inflation adjusted prices about 50% from 1980 to 2013, and the changing policy landscape in Sweden and EU have led to more efficient passenger cars in Sweden (Fig. 4). The single most important landscape factor for the BEV technology is, however, the reduction of battery costs (Cairns and Albertus, 2010). While the specific battery technology in BEV varies, the vast majority uses some form of Li-ion batteries (de Santiago et al., 2012). There are no academic publications that coherently report the declining battery cost at pack level for BEV. Therefore this study has made a short review of reports and individual studies from the scientific literature, grey literature, and white papers. The results are shown in Fig. 5, and highlight an impressive cost reduction of 18% annually and a cost in 2012 of about 500 USD/kWh at pack level. This should be compared with, e.g., the target price by the U.S. Advanced Battery Consortium (USABC) initiated by the Obama Administration for mass adoption of BEV placed at 150 USD/kWh. This goal might be reached substantially faster than many actors predict. In fact, recent outlooks (Tran et al., 2012) only assessed data from 2007 to 2008 giving the impression that Li-ion battery prices at pack level are still at 1000 kWh USD. Similarly, the assessment in a recent Swedish public inquiry put current prices at 600–800 USD and prices in 2020 at 400–450 USD/kWh (Regeringskansliet, 2013a). These often cited battery costs in the range of

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Fig. 5. Li-ion battery prices at pack level and 150 USD/kWh target price by the U.S. Advanced Battery Consortium (USABC). There are few academics sources and prices are here estimate from a range of sources (Deutche Bank, 2009; Element Energy Limited, 2012; Gaines and Cuenca, 2000; IEA, 2013; Kassatly, 2010).

600–1000 USD/kWh should now be reconsidered as cost estimates are declining rapidly. The declining cost of batteries is a landscape factor that currently is a strong and rapidly changing driver for BEV development globally. 3.3.2. Environmental and climate change drivers Over the last five years, EU air quality norms have been exceeded for certain parts of the Stockholm city. This has triggered a significant political debate and formal responses from the city of Stockholm to the European Commission (Stockholm Region EU Office, 2013) and could be expected to be a driver, but surprisingly few actors mention it. Climate change is more often mentioned as a driver for introduction of BEV, and specifically, that policy makers put pressure on the car industry to produce cleaner and more efficient vehicles. The availability of BEV, the market promotion of these vehicles, and procurement by Stockholm City and the major niche actors, is all to be understood against this backdrop of increasing recognition of climate change and the policy goal of a fossil fuel independent transport sector in 2030, both nationally (Regeringskansliet, 2013b) and locally in Stockholm (Stockholm Stad, 2012). However, these landscape changes seem to have rather enabled incrementally more efficient ICE vehicles (Fig. 4). 3.3.3. National policy uncertainty and ambivalence The most often mentioned barrier to BEV uptake in our case is the unpredictability and perceived ambivalence in political support of new technologies in general, and the weak signal on BEV in particular. In order to understand why this is the case it is important to know that Sweden has since the 1970s been in the forefront of developing alternative fuel technology for personal vehicles (Hillman, 2008; Ulmanen, 2013). This development culminated in the mid 2000s due to a strong policy framework that required fuel providers to make renewable alternatives available at gas stations. At the time, this favoured the adoption of biogas and ethanol flexi-fuel vehicles in particular (Nykvist and Whitmarsh, 2008), and lead to a major expansion of ethanol vehicles nation-wide. In early 2010s, the debate on the negative environmental and social impacts of first-generation biofuels received significant attention and the political support faded. Today, sales are back at 2004

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Fig. 6. Net change in number of vehicles in the Swedish car park. The net increase in number of Ethanol vehicles clearly peaked in 2008 and has since declined due to changing policy support. The relative strength of PHEV over BEV is also clearly visible.

levels (Fig. 6). This hype and decline (Geels, 2012, p. 477) of biofuels in Sweden now surfaces in our local case study as a barrier. All interviewees describe the lack of lasting polices for alternative technologies with resulting uncertainty in the political support for BEV and charging infrastructure. At both the Stockholm and national level there are overarching visions about a fossil free transport fleet by 2030, but the government parties are afraid to abandon the “technology neutrality” axiom and do not want to be accused of “picking winners” in particular ones that have limited support from the car manufacturers. In the 1990 and 2000s both Volvo and Saab developed flexi-fuel cars (constituting regime adaptation) much more progressively than is now the case with BEV and PHEV, where industry and policy makers are both waiting for the other to lead the way. 3.3.4. Support for the policy landscape hypothesis As expected, there is lack of policies driving the introduction of BEV in Stockholm. However, it was not clear beforehand why polices are lacking. Our case study identifies a couple of landscape factors that explain why Stockholm is lagging behind. Since fuel prices, climate change concerns and battery prices are national and international landscape factors, they give limited value for explaining this. Instead, the most important ones are the ambivalence of national policy makers resulting in a weak signal and uncertainty for both industry and consumers whether choosing to purchase or market a BEV makes sense in the long term. This ambivalence is rooted in both policy paradigms (market liberalism) and poor political experiences (ethanol) of the state “picking winners”. 4. Conclusion and implications Stockholm is in many respects an environmental front-runner and received the award European Green Capital by the EU Commission in 2010, with clear visions of becoming independent of fossil fuels and attaining net zero CO2 emissions. Sweden, in turn, is routinely listed as one of the most innovative countries in the world, with a proud automotive manufacturing legacy, a history of support for alternative vehicles and fuels, and a national policy framework with high CO2 taxes to support the

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adoption of low carbon technologies. However, despite these seemingly good conditions, progress on Battery Electric Vehicles (BEV), the currently most researched and argued for low carbon option for personal road-based transport, has been very slow. How should we understand this paradox? This paper, using a locally adapted version of the multilevel perspective (MLP) to understand socio-technical change, gives support to explanatory factors at niche, regime and landscape levels. The MLP framework has provided relevant and useful perspectives for generating hypotheses and empirical focal areas at different levels. The hypotheses are not competing but complementary: explanations for the situation are nested in each of them. The niche hypothesis receives the strongest support. Very few local niche initiatives exist in Stockholm, resulting in very limited awareness, experience of, and therefore knowledge of BEV. This results in many misconceptions of the progress of the technology, among planners, policy makers and consumers. In fact, one of the strongest supporting actors locally is not a niche actor per se, but Nissan through its Swedish presence (Nissan Nordic) and the local Nissan dealership. It should be noted that we have not explicitly measured the scale of the niches or the degree of coordination between niches–factors that can be at least as important as the amount of niches. Arguably, a few strong and highly coordinated niche developments can be more impactful for a transition than a multitude of small and fragmented ones. However, our interviews have not suggested that the niches that do exist are either strong or strongly coordinated. The support for the regime hypothesis is not as strong, but can still be clearly discerned. There appears to be “regime ambivalence” towards EVs, leading to disparate and limited regime change, and adaptations primarily in support of PHEVs as opposed to BEVs. BEVs are to some degree threatening key structures built up around ICE innovation and development, which lies at the heart of the car industry and its service revenue streams. That incumbent actors – and in particular industry – can act as barriers to transitions due to commercial interest is a common notion in regime studies and our interviews do give partial support to this explanation. However, as the current development within the commercially available BEVs is now quickly changing, this explanation is rapidly losing ground. At least as important barriers that come out in our data are the prevailing norms and perceptions among consumers as well as producers of what a “real” car is, how it should be used, coupled with a lack of knowledge and experience of how to use EVs. The cognitive dimension is probably very important to explain the differences between Stockholm and Oslo. In Oslo and Norway where there appears to be greater alignment between both perception of cars and the capability of BEV, and higher observability as BEV have easily recognizable license plates and access to bus lines in Oslo, this is effectively raising the awareness of BEV (Figenbaum and Kolbenstvedt, 2013, p. 20). Viewed in the larger context of marked differences also between Denmark and Norway, despite strong incentives in the latter (Albrecht et al., 2013), this calls for more comparative research between all the Nordic countries. Finally, there is considerable support for the landscape hypothesis, and in particular policy uncertainty and lack of sufficient political support for subsidies lowering the costs of BEVs. The uncertainty concerns both the goal itself (will BEV be a preferred option in 10 years or not?) and the instruments to achieve it (will there be a subsidy or some other measure?). This lack of policy signal is set against a background of strong aversion against technology-specific support and reluctance to repeat what is now commonly perceived as a mistake: the support for ethanol as a transport fuel, a policy decision that backfired on politicians when public and expert opinion on biofuels changed. The national policy and car actors in Sweden are therefore now significantly more reluctant and ambivalent towards the technology uncertainties with BEV, resulting in a lack of signal. Also at the Stockholm city level, even in the “green sector”, there is ambivalence in relation to BEVs. Do we really want to promote an expansion of BEVs through, for instance, building up charging infrastructure, or should local transport policy be more geared towards shifting from private to public transport? The regime response to this weak signal is to focus on developing PHEV rather than BEV. PHEV are seen as the natural development of earlier hybridizations, as easier to implement, circumventing the (real and perceived) lack of charging infrastructure, and less challenging from a consumer acceptance perspective.

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4.1. The usefulness of a spatially explicit MPL framework This paper has responded to calls for case studies of transitions at geographical scales other than the nation state (Lawhon and Murphy, 2012; Hodson and Marvin, 2010). The framework that we introduce modifies the existing MLP framework (Geels, 2002) and combines the spatial scale with analysis of structuration. This makes it possible to describe a rich empirical picture where the interactions between local niche developments (such as spaces for early adoption of BEV in test-fleets), need to be analyzed in parallel with niche developments that have a global character. The promise of lower batteries costs and the entering of new actors such as Tesla are phenomena that can be described as niche developments in relation to the existing regime, yet unfold on the global arena and market. In Stockholm, important niche activities are triggered by innovations and collaborations fostered by global actors such as Nissan. Coenen et al. (2012) used the example of wind turbine innovation, and we show in this paper that also the niche development in the electro mobility domain have both local, national, and global dimensions “from the start” (Coenen et al., 2012, p. 973). While much of the theoretical groundwork and arguments for this type of analysis have been put forward by the above scholars, our paper contributes with a novel empirical example, and a suggested concrete modification of the MLP framework and its graphical representation of structuration. 4.2. Policy implications Debates about supporting policies for BEVs tend to revolve around economic incentives and charging infrastructure. This study suggests that this focus must be complemented with other measures. As regards economic incentives, it is true that the current incentives to select BEVs are not sufficient for a mass-market acceleration, but judging by cost developments (see Section 3.3) they can become close to “grid parity” very soon. Volumes are needed to press costs downward, but since the market is global, Stockholm actions will not affect cost reductions. Over the scale up phase, it should be possible to reduce incentive schemes gradually. As regards the charging infrastructure, although charging is needed, the actual need for the individual drivers have been proven to be exaggerated, but is important as a signal to consumers. One advantage with looking at in-depth empirical case studies is that we can get a firmer grip on real barriers. Critical barriers are visible at all three levels: at the landscape level there is significant ambivalence and lack of political signals. At the regime level most actors in the car industry are not pushing for BEV, and at the niche level there are consumers not getting experience and knowledge about BEVs. We submit that policy and governance measures are needed to address all these issues. The conclusions drawn from this study does not allow us to go into detail on policy prescriptions but can only make general observations. In general terms, there is a need for efforts for changing of norms and knowledge by exposing different actors to demonstration, testing and piloting. There is a large opportunity for spurring BEV developments through enabling funding for local projects and initiatives, as a complement to national-level economic incentives. In addition, a much stronger policy signal is needed on where the societal priorities are for the transport system. In summary, if more BEV is viewed as a desired way to faster progress towards set policy objectives of a fossil-fuel free vehicle fleet by 2030, both locally in Stockholm and nationally in Sweden, an acceleration of the penetration of BEVs needs to be induced through appropriate policy measures. Several measures are linked and build upon each other. First, there is reason to investigate a further enhancement of economic incentives – with a long time horizon but also with a clear plan for phase out as technology costs come down. Second, local and national government can give a more coherent signal that they see this as an important infrastructure development priority. Such a signal probably requires overcoming the current aversion against technology-specific support measures. Third, promotion of demonstrations and pilots, using both fleets of professional vehicles and public procurement could help familiarizing drivers with the experience of BEVs. Appendix A. The following actors were interviewed in the study.

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Actor

Type of actor

Date

Recorded/ written notes

Fully/partly transcribed

Elbil2020 Gröna Bilister City of Stockholm, EV procurement initiative City of Stockholm, Parking organization Fortum Taxi 020 Ryska posten Nissan dealership Dagens Nyheter OKQ8

NGO/citizen initiative NGO/alternative vehicle Lobby org Public

2013-10-09 2013-05-06 2013-05-23

Written notes Recorded Recorded

Partly Fully Fully

Public

2013-08-20

Recorded

Fully

Private utility company Private taxi company Private courier service company Privately owned Nissan dealership Motor section largest newspaper Stockholm Fuel provider

2013-09-02 2013-06-05 2013-08-27 2013-09-25 2013-09-18 2013-10-04

Recorded Recorded Written notes Recorded Recorded Written notes

Fully Fully Partly Fully Fully Partly

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