- Email: [email protected]
The evolution of the patent information world over the next 10 years: A Thomson Scientific perspective
World Patent Information 30 (2008) 150–152 www.elsevier.com/locate/worpatin
Short communication
The evolution of the patent information world over the next 10 years: A Thomson Scientific perspective Vin Caraher
*
President and CEO, Thomson Scientific
1. Introduction
2. Key current facts about patent information
This communication is closely based on a presentation by the author at the PDG Annual Members’ Conference in Maastricht, The Netherlands, in May 2007, on the occasion of the PDG’s 50th anniversary. First, I would like to thank Minoo Philipp, Sandy Mullen and all of the PDG members for the invitation to this special anniversary event. My colleagues have already offered some terrific insights into the future of the patent information world over the next decade. Looking back, the industry has undergone tremendous change over the last decade. The impact of technology has been enormous on all of our lives, with personal computing power growing exponentially, software tools that now allow for text/data mining, visualization and machine assisted translation and the Worldwide Web which was a static distribution medium 10 years ago, and now has evolved into a dynamic, interactive and ubiquitous platform for the dissemination of information. The only certain thing about the next 10 years is that change will occur at a more rapid pace than ever. We are rapidly entering a world where all barriers are broken down. I just finished reading a book called ‘‘Wikinomics’’ by Don Tapscott [1]. The book provides an interesting look into the future. . . into a world of mass collaboration and peer production where masses of people and firms collaborate openly to drive innovation and growth in their industries. In this ‘‘Age of Participation’’ enabled by wikis, web services, the Web 2.0 and the move toward open source development, there is an opportunity to accelerate innovation like never before. At the same time, this new open and global workplace offers challenges for how R&D is conducted and what intellectual property means.
Here are the facts we are confronted with today in the world of patent information: First is volume. Fueled by globalization and the emergence of areas like China and India and the internet, the sheer volume of patent information is growing dramatically. The second fact is the increasing complexity of research and innovation, leading to added complexity in patenting activity. Inventions are becoming more complex due to the growth in inter-disciplinary research. Biologists are working with physicists who are working with Chemists. Because of the ways that claims are drafted, searching has become more difficult. The third indisputable fact is that technology changes everything. It is a key factor in helping to address issues such as the desire for integration of information, both internal and external, and the continuing need to manage structured and unstructured data. These three facts have a profound impact on all involved in patent information – information specialists, end users, patent offices and commercial suppliers.
*
Tel.: +1 215 243 2213; mobile: +1 267 207 8194; fax: +1 215 387 4214. E-mail address: [email protected]
0172-2190/$ - see front matter 2007 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. doi:10.1016/j.wpi.2007.07.008
3. Increasing volume of patents Growth rates each year from 2002 to 2005 are compared in Fig. 1. On average, volume growth has been 6.5% in the US, 5.8% for PCT, 4.1% for EPO and relatively flat (0.7%) for Japan. By contrast, growth in patenting activity in China and Korea is dramatic compared to more established jurisdictions. Average growth rates per annum from 2002 to 2005 are 29% for China and 12% for Korea. The majority of patent documents are now published in non-English languages. Not only this, a large proportion of these are now published in non-Roman character sets. The industry has lived with and adapted to the large volume of
V. Caraher / World Patent Information 30 (2008) 150–152
Growth rates of patent applications Chinese patent applications average 28.6% growth p.a. 2002-2005 35.0%
China 30.0% 25.0%
151
The drift eastwards of patent volumes is set to continue. Within Asia Pacific, and in particular China, the growth in the patent volumes is expected to continue at current high rates driven by the current 5 year plan which promotes intellectual property as China shifts from a manufacturing based economy to an innovation-based economy.
20.0%
Korea
15.0%
PCT USPTO EPO JPO
10.0% 5.0% 0.0% 2002
2003
2004
2005
-5.0% -10.0%
Fig. 1. Growth rates of patent applications 2002–2005.
Japanese patent documents for many years. However, with the rapid rise in volumes of Chinese patents, Japan, Korea and China together accounted for a staggering 54% of all patent documents published in 2006. Technological innovation is the engine of economic growth. With continued economic growth forecast for the major developed economies, volumes of patent applications are expected to continue to rise (Fig. 2). In the US for example, the 2007–2012 strategic plan from the USPTO states that ‘‘for the past decade, patent application filings have consistently risen, sometimes at rates of 10% over the previous year. In fact, this strategic plan anticipates that patent application filings will continue to rise at the rate of 8% per year through 2012’’. Only USPTO offer official projections of patent volumes into the future. Current predictions are that by 2008 they will receive 510K applications, rising to nearly 700K applications in 2012. Taking an average of the growth rates listed over the last 5 years to produce projections into the future, we see that in the next 2 years at current filing rates, China (which already moved past Korea in 2005) is set to surpass Japan in 2009 to become the second most prodigious patent filing authority in the world behind the US. Projected patent application volumes 2007-2009 600000
USPTO 500000
China JPO
400000
300000
Korea 200000
PCT EPO
100000
0 2007
2008
2009
Fig. 2. Projected patent application volumes 2007–2009.
4. Implications of increasing volume, complexity and nonRoman character content With increasing volumes and complexity of patents together with the increasing non-Roman character content, the usefulness of patents as technical information decreases at the same rate as the difficulty in finding relevant information and using it increases. This increasing difficulty in finding relevant information also increases the risk of missing the vital document that can invalidate a problem patent or identify accurately a potential infringement risk. The volume of patent applications continues to outpace the capacity of patent offices to examine them. At the USPTO patent pendency – the amount of time an application is waiting before a patent is issued or abandoned – now averages more than 31 months. There are also questions about the quality of patents being issued in some technology areas including software and business method patents. The increasing volumes and complexity of patents together with the increasing non-Roman character content, are placing pressures on commercial suppliers of patent information with increased production costs and challenges to maintain timeliness and quality of information. 5. Patent pendency The number of US patent filings awaiting attention or being processed pre-grant exceeded 1 million for the first time last year, a further rise of 13.4% on the previous year in an inexorable trend (1,003,884 in 2006; 885,002 in 2005). This issue is most acute in computer software where total average pendency based on the most recent filing date is now 44 months. This is happening despite a recruitment drive which saw the hire of 1000 new examiners during 2006, with more to come during 2007 (Fig. 3). The rise in patent pendency is impacting on the assignee’s opportunities to leverage commercial benefit from their invention, particularly in fast moving areas of technology. In some areas of telecoms/software/computing, the technology covered by an invention could be redundant before a patent is granted. To turn the corner and reduce the backlog of patent applications and the amount of wait-time for a patent examination, the USPTO is exploring necessary changes to the patent system. A new accelerated patent examination procedure, which gives participating applicants a final decision on their application within 12 months from filing has been implemented. This is in return for the applicant providing an
152
V. Caraher / World Patent Information 30 (2008) 150–152
Impact on Patent Offices - pendency of patents Total US patent applications pending grant 1,200,000
1,000,000
800,000
600,000
400,000
200,000
0 2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
Fig. 3. Impact on patent offices – pendency of patents.
appropriate search of the prior art and an improved explanation of the claims and prior art found. Other initiatives include plans to hire 1200 new patent examiners a year for extended periods of time, including examiners with degrees and/or experience in areas of emerging technologies and outsourcing of patent novelty searching to external approved searchers. 6. Long term outlook Can the patent system survive the pressures being placed on it? That depends on several factors: • The ability of the patent offices to manage the challenges posed by ever-increasing volumes. • The co-operation of applicants in submitting only valid worthwhile inventions. • The continued perception that protection afforded by the patent system offsets public disclosure of proprietary technology. Increasingly, research and development is being contracted out to specialist contract research teams who are globally disperse and disciplinarily diverse. In this environment, challenges are thrown up with respect to sharing of proprietary knowledge with third parties and the ultimate ownership of IP protecting the innovation. This requires careful management up-front with clear drawing of contracts and strict application of guidelines regarding sharing of confidential information. This
in turn poses challenges to information professionals in servicing the needs of the research function – how to maintain a knowledge-sharing collaborative information workspace in a geographically disperse yet tightly constrained environment. Another facet of R&D globalization is the burgeoning trend for rights holders to make their intellectual property open-access as, for example, IBM did in January 2005 when they made 500 of their inventions available for royalty-free license by open source software developers. So, what does this all mean? I believe the future provides opportunities for all involved in the dissemination and analysis of patent information. Advances in technology and better tools, will allow us to improve the user experience – both professional users and end-users. If done right, interfaces can be simplified, and information made more meaningful and relevant with better analytical tools. Our mission as commercial providers does not change in the future. With all the chaos, there is no better time for a commercial provider to take advantage of the opportunity to add value and order, with high quality, timely and reliable information. The geographical shift in patent activity offers an opportunity to add broader, deeper value-added coverage of developing regions, improved machine translation and provide local language interfaces and content. There is an opportunity to help address patent complexity by closer integration of non-patent literature for prior art searching, improved analytics and visualization tools to serve as navigation aids and enhanced retrieval tools and technologies. As technology advances, opportunities to provide better workflow and global collaboration tools can be truly leveraged. Finally, a quote by Charles Kettering, a US inventor who held more than 300 patents in the early 1900s. ‘‘My interest is in the future because I’m going to spend the rest of my life there.’’ And it’s still true today. It will undoubtedly be an exciting future for all of us. Reference [1] Wikinomics: how mass collaboration changes everything. Don Tapscott and Anthony D Williams. December 2006. New Paradigm. CDN$ 32.50.
Short communication
The evolution of the patent information world over the next 10 years: A Thomson Scientific perspective Vin Caraher
*
President and CEO, Thomson Scientific
1. Introduction
2. Key current facts about patent information
This communication is closely based on a presentation by the author at the PDG Annual Members’ Conference in Maastricht, The Netherlands, in May 2007, on the occasion of the PDG’s 50th anniversary. First, I would like to thank Minoo Philipp, Sandy Mullen and all of the PDG members for the invitation to this special anniversary event. My colleagues have already offered some terrific insights into the future of the patent information world over the next decade. Looking back, the industry has undergone tremendous change over the last decade. The impact of technology has been enormous on all of our lives, with personal computing power growing exponentially, software tools that now allow for text/data mining, visualization and machine assisted translation and the Worldwide Web which was a static distribution medium 10 years ago, and now has evolved into a dynamic, interactive and ubiquitous platform for the dissemination of information. The only certain thing about the next 10 years is that change will occur at a more rapid pace than ever. We are rapidly entering a world where all barriers are broken down. I just finished reading a book called ‘‘Wikinomics’’ by Don Tapscott [1]. The book provides an interesting look into the future. . . into a world of mass collaboration and peer production where masses of people and firms collaborate openly to drive innovation and growth in their industries. In this ‘‘Age of Participation’’ enabled by wikis, web services, the Web 2.0 and the move toward open source development, there is an opportunity to accelerate innovation like never before. At the same time, this new open and global workplace offers challenges for how R&D is conducted and what intellectual property means.
Here are the facts we are confronted with today in the world of patent information: First is volume. Fueled by globalization and the emergence of areas like China and India and the internet, the sheer volume of patent information is growing dramatically. The second fact is the increasing complexity of research and innovation, leading to added complexity in patenting activity. Inventions are becoming more complex due to the growth in inter-disciplinary research. Biologists are working with physicists who are working with Chemists. Because of the ways that claims are drafted, searching has become more difficult. The third indisputable fact is that technology changes everything. It is a key factor in helping to address issues such as the desire for integration of information, both internal and external, and the continuing need to manage structured and unstructured data. These three facts have a profound impact on all involved in patent information – information specialists, end users, patent offices and commercial suppliers.
*
Tel.: +1 215 243 2213; mobile: +1 267 207 8194; fax: +1 215 387 4214. E-mail address: [email protected]
0172-2190/$ - see front matter 2007 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. doi:10.1016/j.wpi.2007.07.008
3. Increasing volume of patents Growth rates each year from 2002 to 2005 are compared in Fig. 1. On average, volume growth has been 6.5% in the US, 5.8% for PCT, 4.1% for EPO and relatively flat (0.7%) for Japan. By contrast, growth in patenting activity in China and Korea is dramatic compared to more established jurisdictions. Average growth rates per annum from 2002 to 2005 are 29% for China and 12% for Korea. The majority of patent documents are now published in non-English languages. Not only this, a large proportion of these are now published in non-Roman character sets. The industry has lived with and adapted to the large volume of
V. Caraher / World Patent Information 30 (2008) 150–152
Growth rates of patent applications Chinese patent applications average 28.6% growth p.a. 2002-2005 35.0%
China 30.0% 25.0%
151
The drift eastwards of patent volumes is set to continue. Within Asia Pacific, and in particular China, the growth in the patent volumes is expected to continue at current high rates driven by the current 5 year plan which promotes intellectual property as China shifts from a manufacturing based economy to an innovation-based economy.
20.0%
Korea
15.0%
PCT USPTO EPO JPO
10.0% 5.0% 0.0% 2002
2003
2004
2005
-5.0% -10.0%
Fig. 1. Growth rates of patent applications 2002–2005.
Japanese patent documents for many years. However, with the rapid rise in volumes of Chinese patents, Japan, Korea and China together accounted for a staggering 54% of all patent documents published in 2006. Technological innovation is the engine of economic growth. With continued economic growth forecast for the major developed economies, volumes of patent applications are expected to continue to rise (Fig. 2). In the US for example, the 2007–2012 strategic plan from the USPTO states that ‘‘for the past decade, patent application filings have consistently risen, sometimes at rates of 10% over the previous year. In fact, this strategic plan anticipates that patent application filings will continue to rise at the rate of 8% per year through 2012’’. Only USPTO offer official projections of patent volumes into the future. Current predictions are that by 2008 they will receive 510K applications, rising to nearly 700K applications in 2012. Taking an average of the growth rates listed over the last 5 years to produce projections into the future, we see that in the next 2 years at current filing rates, China (which already moved past Korea in 2005) is set to surpass Japan in 2009 to become the second most prodigious patent filing authority in the world behind the US. Projected patent application volumes 2007-2009 600000
USPTO 500000
China JPO
400000
300000
Korea 200000
PCT EPO
100000
0 2007
2008
2009
Fig. 2. Projected patent application volumes 2007–2009.
4. Implications of increasing volume, complexity and nonRoman character content With increasing volumes and complexity of patents together with the increasing non-Roman character content, the usefulness of patents as technical information decreases at the same rate as the difficulty in finding relevant information and using it increases. This increasing difficulty in finding relevant information also increases the risk of missing the vital document that can invalidate a problem patent or identify accurately a potential infringement risk. The volume of patent applications continues to outpace the capacity of patent offices to examine them. At the USPTO patent pendency – the amount of time an application is waiting before a patent is issued or abandoned – now averages more than 31 months. There are also questions about the quality of patents being issued in some technology areas including software and business method patents. The increasing volumes and complexity of patents together with the increasing non-Roman character content, are placing pressures on commercial suppliers of patent information with increased production costs and challenges to maintain timeliness and quality of information. 5. Patent pendency The number of US patent filings awaiting attention or being processed pre-grant exceeded 1 million for the first time last year, a further rise of 13.4% on the previous year in an inexorable trend (1,003,884 in 2006; 885,002 in 2005). This issue is most acute in computer software where total average pendency based on the most recent filing date is now 44 months. This is happening despite a recruitment drive which saw the hire of 1000 new examiners during 2006, with more to come during 2007 (Fig. 3). The rise in patent pendency is impacting on the assignee’s opportunities to leverage commercial benefit from their invention, particularly in fast moving areas of technology. In some areas of telecoms/software/computing, the technology covered by an invention could be redundant before a patent is granted. To turn the corner and reduce the backlog of patent applications and the amount of wait-time for a patent examination, the USPTO is exploring necessary changes to the patent system. A new accelerated patent examination procedure, which gives participating applicants a final decision on their application within 12 months from filing has been implemented. This is in return for the applicant providing an
152
V. Caraher / World Patent Information 30 (2008) 150–152
Impact on Patent Offices - pendency of patents Total US patent applications pending grant 1,200,000
1,000,000
800,000
600,000
400,000
200,000
0 2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
Fig. 3. Impact on patent offices – pendency of patents.
appropriate search of the prior art and an improved explanation of the claims and prior art found. Other initiatives include plans to hire 1200 new patent examiners a year for extended periods of time, including examiners with degrees and/or experience in areas of emerging technologies and outsourcing of patent novelty searching to external approved searchers. 6. Long term outlook Can the patent system survive the pressures being placed on it? That depends on several factors: • The ability of the patent offices to manage the challenges posed by ever-increasing volumes. • The co-operation of applicants in submitting only valid worthwhile inventions. • The continued perception that protection afforded by the patent system offsets public disclosure of proprietary technology. Increasingly, research and development is being contracted out to specialist contract research teams who are globally disperse and disciplinarily diverse. In this environment, challenges are thrown up with respect to sharing of proprietary knowledge with third parties and the ultimate ownership of IP protecting the innovation. This requires careful management up-front with clear drawing of contracts and strict application of guidelines regarding sharing of confidential information. This
in turn poses challenges to information professionals in servicing the needs of the research function – how to maintain a knowledge-sharing collaborative information workspace in a geographically disperse yet tightly constrained environment. Another facet of R&D globalization is the burgeoning trend for rights holders to make their intellectual property open-access as, for example, IBM did in January 2005 when they made 500 of their inventions available for royalty-free license by open source software developers. So, what does this all mean? I believe the future provides opportunities for all involved in the dissemination and analysis of patent information. Advances in technology and better tools, will allow us to improve the user experience – both professional users and end-users. If done right, interfaces can be simplified, and information made more meaningful and relevant with better analytical tools. Our mission as commercial providers does not change in the future. With all the chaos, there is no better time for a commercial provider to take advantage of the opportunity to add value and order, with high quality, timely and reliable information. The geographical shift in patent activity offers an opportunity to add broader, deeper value-added coverage of developing regions, improved machine translation and provide local language interfaces and content. There is an opportunity to help address patent complexity by closer integration of non-patent literature for prior art searching, improved analytics and visualization tools to serve as navigation aids and enhanced retrieval tools and technologies. As technology advances, opportunities to provide better workflow and global collaboration tools can be truly leveraged. Finally, a quote by Charles Kettering, a US inventor who held more than 300 patents in the early 1900s. ‘‘My interest is in the future because I’m going to spend the rest of my life there.’’ And it’s still true today. It will undoubtedly be an exciting future for all of us. Reference [1] Wikinomics: how mass collaboration changes everything. Don Tapscott and Anthony D Williams. December 2006. New Paradigm. CDN$ 32.50.