The foundation shivers: When mythology can no longer cloak

The Foundation Shivers: When Mythology Can No Longer Cloak Nancy S. Coney and Wade C. Mackey ABSTRACT An important segment of any society is its belief system, mythology, or cosmology. Generally, when the material aspects of a culture shift, the folklore adjusts to that shift, and a reasonable accommodation is made between beliefs and behaviors. This inquiry examines the dynamics which occur when a disjunction develops between an heretofore inviolate core belief and the attendant behaviors. Specifically, in the United States, among other cultures, the highly venerated icon of motherhood has become demonstrably distinct from the behaviors of mothers. The problem is then addressed: How would a society react or respond to the discrepancy between the imagery of a core pillar to their society's belief system and the behavior which is expected to be aligned with that imagery?

Rule #1: All politics are local. --Rep. Tip O'Neill Rule #2: All long-term politics are reproductive strategies. Rule #3: All effective long term politics camouflage Rule #2. --lpsoc Macquire A t h o u g h t e x p e r i m e n t c o u l d b e g i n w i t h the f o l l o w i n g q u e s t i o n : w h a t i f g r a v i t y w a v e s w e r e d i s c o v e r e d w h i c h t r a v e l e d 2.5011 t i m e s t h e s p e e d o f l i g h t ? W h a t w o u l d t h e A m e r i c a n S o c i e t y o f P h y s i c i s t s d o ? H o w w o u l d they r e a c t ? Or, l e t ' s i m a g i n e that, o n o c c a s i o n s , L a m a r c k i s m is accurate. T h a t is, w h a t i f s a t u r a t e d p r a c t i c e , o v e r time, c r e a t e s e n o r m o u s q u a n t i t i e s o f t r a n s f e r - R N A w h i c h , w h e n e x c e e d i n g a critical m a s s , r e - o r d e r s t h e D N A s e q u e n c e s w h i c h ,

Nancy S. Coney, M.S.W., Dept. of Sociology, Anthropology & Social Work, Western Illinois University, Macomb, Illinois, and Wade C. Maekey, Ph.D., Tomball College, Bryan, Texas, E-Mail: [email protected].

Journal of Social and Evolutionary Systems 21(1):83-112 ISSN: 1061-7361

Copyright © 1998 by JAI Press, Inc. All rights of reproduction in any form reserved. 83

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in turn, would facilitate the coding of that specified transfer-RNA? What would the biological community do? How would they react? A final exercise: what if an arthropod was found which acted totally altruistically toward a species of nemotode? What would the Darwinian sociobiologists do? How would they react? Framed differently, what happens when a core pillar of a society's belief system becomes demonstrably false? Two polar responses are available. First, the citizens of the society can recognize the discrepancy between what they had believed and what has been actually demonstrated. With such a recognition, the citizens can decide on how to accommodate toward the discrepancy. When the astronomy of Copernicus held sway over the astronomy of Ptolemy, the next wave of astronomers adjusted appropriately. The second option is that the citizens can simply note the demonstration and then promptly ignore the discrepancy. The south Pacific "cargo cults" provide a prototypic example, e.g. Worsley (1984). See Festinger, Riecken, and Schachter (1956) for a discussion. The argument being presented here is that a very basic belief common to virtually all cultures around the world has become in some of those cultures, if not demonstrably false, at least problematic in its validity. The belief in question is the evaluation of the status-role complex of "motherhood." With very few exceptions, the icon or symbol of "mother" has been given great deference and respect throughout the human condition. See Jung (1969) and Jung and Pauli (1955) for examples. Occasionally, individual mothers (e.g. the filicides of Susan Smith or Darlie Routier represent recent examples) are highlighted as villainesses. And there have been occasional forays against types of mothering, e.g. some Freudian analyses, Furthermore, in some cultures, the levels of overall parental nurturance are comparatively low (Rohner, 1975). But the central tendencies of images and folklore within societies has been to burnish the notion of the devotion and dedication of its women (its mothers) toward their children. Some examples are given below. "God could not be everywhere, and therefore He made mothers." "It is safer to be in a mother's lap than in a lord's bed." "He's bare of news who speaks ill of his mother." "No bones are ever broken by a mother's beating." "An ounce of mother is worth a ton of priest." "An ounce of mother wit is worth a pound of clergy." "In the eyes of its mother, every beetle is a gazelle." "A rich child often sits in a poor mother's lap" "Her children arise up and call her blessed."

Jewish proverb Estonian proverb Irish proverb Russian proverb Spanish proverb Scottish proverb Moroccan proverb Danish proverb Proverbs 31:28

Certainly Western literature is replete with a positive imagery of the Mother-figure or Madonna. For example: l f l were hanged on the highest hill,/Mother o 'mine/O mother o 'mine/l know whose love would follow me still~Mother o 'mine/O mother o 'mine Rudyard Kipling Who ran to help me when I fell,land would some pretty story telL/Or kiss the place to make it well~ M y mother Ann Taylor Womanliness means only motherhood. All love begins and ends there A mother is a mother still, the holiest thing alive

Robert Browning Samuel T. Coleridge

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The question then becomes: "if a culture's folklore surrounding the archetypal mother is not paralleled by actual mothering behaviors, what happens in that culture?" That is, what would the community do? How would they react? Kuhn's The Structure of Scientific Revolution (1970) offers a seminal discussion on how a discipline's shifting of a basic template or set of assumptions (a paradigm) reverberates in a general over-all re-thinking of how that discipline does its business. For example, it made a difference to astronomers that the earth revolved around the sun rather than the reverse. The acceptance of Darwin's views on the origin of species deeply affected biologists. Freud's inclusion of unconscious motivators became a watershed in how the human psyche was viewed. Piaget's stages of cognitive development sharply refracted how children's growth was interpreted. As the new paradigms were accepted, the kinds of questions asked and the focus of attention on what was more important and what was less important shifted. Adjustments were made. Cognitive dissonance was made consonant. Astronomers made new models. Biologists made new models. Psychologists made new models. The business of each discipline continued unabated. Each discipline was changed in its content and methods, but continued its inquiries nonetheless. It is suggested here that a problem of how a community deals with the images and expectations of the status-role complex of motherhood augurs a different rigor of difficulty. A change in a belief system can have a wide range of impacts upon the community's believers. The impact can be minor: bran intake affects cancer risk. The impact can be major: diseases are caused by germs, not witches. The belief itself can be more accurate: practice makes perfect. The belief can be less accurate: a Leo is more procrastinating than a Pisces. Given the lability of the human imagination, a belief system which genuinely harms a society tends to be quickly discarded or re-interpreted (see Harris, 1974a; 1974b; 1977 for examples, and Harris, 1979 for discussion; cf. Campbell, 1968). The notions that (1) profits, (2) the automobile, (3) demon rum or (4) heavier than air flight were immoral were re-evaluated as more people availed themselves to profit, automobiles, alcohol, and airplanes. "Blue Laws" essentially disappeared. Rarely is an injurious belief system within a community allowed to annihilate that community. The Shakers' profession of chronic celibacy serves as a clear exception which profiles the rule. Despite active recruitment, the Shakers' tenure was barely ten generations. Unrelenting chastity precluded subsequent generations of Shakers which could carry on the other facets of the Shaker worldview or cosmology. The subject being explored here is the current version of "motherhood," at least as sculpted by Western Europe and its extensions, e.g. the United States, Australia, and Canada. It is argued here that the behavioral trends of what mothers actually do have glided away from the imagery of "motherhood," and that the separation has widened enough to present a clear disjunction. The imagery of motherhood connotes that children are the mother's highest priority, and that their children bring mothers great joy. The argument is in two parts. First, it is argued that a premise in the relevant cultures' set of "givens" is that the mother's desire for independence and autonomy has assumed priority over the well-being of their children. Second, fertility rates for those same cultures have dropped below replacement value.

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Women's Independence Trumps Children's Well-being Two trends became evident in the United States in the 1960s, and both trends were a consequence of enhancing the absolute as well as the relative autonomy of women. The two trends were (1) elevated divorce rates and (2) increased proportions of out-of-wedlock births. Divorce

The ability for a wife (as well as a husband) to leave a nonfulfilling marriage was facilitated by the institution of "no-fault" divorce. California led the way in 1969, but within a few years, all other states (plus D.C.) had incorporated some version of "no-fault" divorce (see Cornick, 1995; Glendon, 1989). In a "no-fault" divorce situation, child custody and property distribution could be contested, but not the divorce itself. If one of the spouses wants a divorce to occur, then the divorce occurs. For example, the Texas code (§3.01) states: "On the petition of either party to a marriage, a divorce may be decreed without regard to fault if the marriage has become insupportable because of discord or conflict or personalities that destroys the legitimate ends of the marriage relationship and prevents any reasonable expectation of reconciliation" (Texas Codes Annotated, 1996). The Numbers

The United States divorce rates (number of divorces per 1000 population) for the 1920s and 1930s were in the 1.6 range. From the 1940s to the late sixties, the rates were in the 2.0-2.6 range: a slight increase. However, from the decade of 1968 to 1979, the rates climbed from 2.9 to 5.3. The rates then dipped and have stayed in the middle to high fours. Of interest here is that the legal apparatus did not and does not distinguish divorces involving minor children from those divorces not involving minor children. For the United States, in 1993, over a million (1,075,000) minor children were involved in a divorce situation. Most of these children remained with the mother. In some jurisdictions, despite judicial edicts which have proclaimed gender neutrality in terms of custody (Mclntyre & Sussman, 1995; Westfall, 1994; Weyrauch & Katz, 1983), mothers gained custody in 90% of the divorce cases (Fox & Kelly, 1995; Sack, 1987; Sitarz, 1990). In fact, in 1994, more minor children were living with neither parent (5%) than with father only (4%). Twenty-eight percent were living with mother-only, and 63% lived with both parents (U.S. Bureau of the Census, 1996). In terms of nationa! data, it is important to note that women predominate in the petitioning for divorce. For divorces which involve no children, the ratio is 1.6 to 1.0. If one or more minor children are involved in a divorce, then the woman's tendency to petition for divorce increases and the man's tendency to petition for divorce decreases. Depending upon the number of minor children involved, the ratios range from 2.3 - 2.4 to 1.0. (See Table 1. See also the Beijing Review, 1995; Buckle, Gallup, & Rodd, 1995, Dennis, 1992; Hong & Ning, 1992; Peters, 1979; Sullivan & Allen, 1996 for similar data from non-U.S, samples.) Most (51.3%) of the men's petitions for a divorce involve no children. Most (58.2%) of the women's petitions for a divorce do involve one or more children (see Table 2). Chadwick and Heaton (1992) present similar data which indicate that wives are half again more likely to want a divorce than are their husbands (see Table 3). It should be also be noted that women's

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Table 1 Percentage of Divorces by N u m b e r o f Children and b y Status o f Petitioner: 1982-1986 (Mean Number o f Divorces = 573,931) (National Center for Health Statistics 1989, 1996) Status of Petitioner Number of Children

Husband

Wife

Husband & Wife

Other

Total

None sd One sd Two sd Three or more sd All children sd

35.52% 0.33 27.82% 0.45 27.64% 0.67 27.44% 0.65 31.26% 0.42

55.88% 0.88 64.80% 0.99 64.74% 0.69 65.66% 0.77 60.20 0.78

5.40% 1.40 5.66% 0.22 6.04% 0.39 5.16 0.40 5.84% 0.22

3.20% 0.99 1.71% 0.86 1.58% 0.79 1.74% 0.69 2.70% 0.83

100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%

Table 2 Percentage of Divorces b y Number o f Children, by Husband as Petitioner, and by Wife as Petitioner Separately, 1982-1986 (National Center for Health Statistics (1989, 1996) Status of Petitioner: Number of Children

Husband

None sd One sd Two sd Three or more 7.0% sd Number not specified sd Total Mean number

51.3% 0.87 22.2% 0.15 17.1% 0.35 8.7% 0.30 2.4% 0.67 100.0% 170,003

Wife

41.8% 0.07 26.8% 0.12 20.7% 0.84 21.0 0.34 2.0% 0.39 100.0% 353,191

z score

p < (2-tailed) a

64.7

.001

35.8

.001

30.8

.001

.001 9.4

.001

Note: aBecauseof the largen's, evensmalldifferencesin percentageswillgeneratestatisticalsignificance.Hence,the directionof the patternsis emphasizedmorethanthe probabilitylevels.

primary reasons for their willingness to end their marriage were psychological reasons, e.g. lack of sufficient fulfillment, lack of sufficient happiness in the marriage, lack o f sufficient romance (Burns, 1984; Cleek & Pearson, 1985; Gigy & Kelly, 1992; Greif & Pabst, 1988; Thurnher, Fenn, Melichar, & Chiribota, 1983; Greif, 1985; see Appendix I for the data). Thus, in terms of enhancing w o m e n ' s autonomy, the institution and spread o f "no fault" divorce were effective. However, it was clear that "no fault" divorce was going to abrade large number of fathers from their children.

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Table 3 Perceptions o f who Wanted the Marriage to End b y Gender o f Spouse (from the National Survey o f Families and Households [Chadwick & Heaton 1992] Perception of How the Marriage Ended by Divorce: Husband Wanted Divorce; Wife did not

Husband Wanted Divorce More

Both Spouses Wanted Divorce

Wife Wanted Divorce More

Wife Wanted Divorce; Husband did not

Other

Spouse Responding

(1)

(2)

(3)

(4)

(5)

(6)

Husband Wife Husband (1) + (2) = (4) + (5) = Wife (1) + (2) = (4) + (5) =

9.4% 8.1%

8.7% 9.3 %

35.8% 23.7%

15.9% 20.0%

18.7% 29.6%

11.5%

9.3%

18.1% 34.6% 17.4% 49.6%

Husband ([4] + [5])/Husband ([1]) + ([2]) = 34.6%/18.1% = 1.91 Wife ([4] + [5])/Husband ([1]) + ([2]) = 49.6%/17.4% = 2.85 2.85/2.92 =1.49

Out-of-wedlock Births In 1940, out-of-wedlock births accounted for only 3.5% of all live-births. The figure edged up to 4.1% in 1945 and dipped to 3.9% in 1950. By 1960, the percentage o f all births which were out-of-wedlock rose to 5.2%. This figure was doubled to 10.7% in 1970 and nearly trebled by 1994 to 32.0%. In 1994, over 1,290,000 children in the United States were born to single parent mothers (U.S. Bureau of the Census, 1997). Although there exceptions, in the main, these children were denied a co-resident biological and social father. The Roe v. W a d e decision created a salient gender asymmetry with a tendency to enhance the mother's legal options (and necessarily to decrease the father's legal options). With abortion legal, a pregnant woman could and can choose to become a parent or not. The government cannot mandate that the woman must carry the conceptus to term, nor can the government mandate that the woman must abort the conceptus. The choice on the future o f the pregnancy belongs to the woman, and only to the woman. The government cannot coerce parenthood upon the woman. Once a conception has occurred, the man, as a matter o f contrast, has zero choice concerning his potential parenthood; none whatsoever. If the woman decides to abort his child, his child is aborted. The man has no legal recourse. If the woman does decide to carry the child to term and to give birth, the man cannot prevent her. He has no legal recourse. If the woman decides for herself to become a parent, she also decides that the man will become a parent. The government then determines that the genitor is a "parent," whether he wishes to be or not. The differential public response to female circumcision, invariably viewed as inappropriate, versus male circumcision, invariably not reported at all, represents an interesting analogue.

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If the man offers marriage to the woman, she may accept or reject his proposal. If she rejects him, the man has no legal recourse. He cannot force marriage upon the woman. The government cannot force marriage upon the woman. Once his child is born to the single mother, the man has virtually no de facto rights toward his child. The unmarried father does have de jure rights vis-a-vis his child, and family law, in most states, has articulated a gender-neutral position in terms of custody (Weyrauch & Katz, 1983; Westfall, 1994). However, in day-to-day realities, women dominate in receiving custody of the child (again, more children live with neither parent than with father-only). In effect, all of the man's "parenting" efforts must be funneled through the single mother. His level of parenting can be determined by the personal decisions of a particular woman. How the women fulfills her role of "gatekeeper" more depends upon her individual circumstances and her personality than upon legal edicts (Braver, Wolchik, Sandier, Fogas, & Zvetina, 1991; Dudley, 1991). The government is simply not in a structural position to influence effectively the level of parenting by unwed fathers. The' numbers here are not trivial. Approximately 1,529,000 abortions occur each year or 379 abortions per 1,000 live births. In addition, 32.0% of all births, or 1,290,000 births (in 1994) were to single parent mothers (U.S. Bureau of the Census, 1997). Of these 2,819,000 conceptions (1,529,000 + 1,290,000 = 2,819,000), the man has no legal recourse to influence any of them: zero. Accordingly, the rise in single parent births reflects increased autonomy for women. Costs of Fatherlessness

The argument could be made, and certainly has been, that the social father (in a modem, industrialized, service oriented economy) is optional or supernumerary. That is, there are many forms of families. The mother and father and child(ren) family is one variant of how families can be constituted, but this one variant shares equal standing with a number of alternative variants. Such an argument, although logically sound, is empirically awkward to maintain if the family's children are the focus of analysis. Below axe five examples of how fatherlessness can create deficits in his children's well-being. 1. ChiM Abuse

Although rarely phrased in such a way, a resident biological father is a reliable health insurance policy for his children. As soon as any other domestic arrangement occurs, i.e. as soon as any other man other than the biological and social father becomes proximate to children which are not his own, the children are at increased risk to physical abuse (Daly & Wilson, 1980; 1985; 1987; Gil, 1970; Hegar, Zuravin, & Orme, 1994; Johnson, 1974; Lenington, 1981; Mann, 1996; see Kasim, Shafie, & Cheah [1994] for an example outside of the United States). If the child is a girl, then the increase in physical abuse risk is complemented with an increased risk to sexual abuse (Gordon & Creighton, 1988; Immerman & Mackey, 1997; Russell, 1986; Tyler, 1986; Wassil-Grimm, 1995). Hence, if a mother (1) chooses not to co-reside with the biological and social father of her children, and (2) chooses a life-style other than perpetual chastity, then her choices elevate the chances that her children will be physically/sexually abused.

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In the short-term, dead, maimed, and traumatized children are probably not the best route to family cohesion and effectiveness. The long-term sequelae of physical abuse on either boys or girls is an unknown entity (aside from death which has a predictable future). On the other hand, the long term sequelae of sexual abuse upon girls is known and is extremely expensive to the violated-girl-grown-to-adulthood and to whatever social group in which she would find herself. The expenses are certainly psychological, as well as sociological and economic (Alexander, 1993; Bagley & Ramsay, 1985; Briere & Runtz, 1988; Courtois, 1979; DeYoung, 1982; Goodwin, McCarthy, & Divasto, 1981; Miller, Moeller, Kaufman, Divasto, Fitzsimmons, Pather, & Christy, 1978; Peters, 1988; Russell, 1986; Sedney & Brooks, 1984; Stein, Golding, Siegel, Burnam & Sorenson, 1988; Schetky, Angel & Morrison, 1979; see Browne & Finkelhor, 1986; Immerman & Mackey, 1997 for reviews of the literature; no long-term sequelae of sexual abuse against boys were found).

2. Children's deficits in adjustment and well-being Hanson, McLanahan, & Thomson (1996) surveyed data from the "1987-88 National Survey of Families and Households" to compare childhood well-being in different structures of families: original, two-parent households, single-mother households, and stepfather households. The authors began their presentation with the statement: "One puzzling finding in the literature on disrupted families is the absence of a remarriage benefit for children in step-family households. Although the remarriage of parents increases a family's economic security and brings an additional parent figure into the household, children in step-families exhibit about the same number of adjustment problems as children in single-parent families and more problems than children in original two-parent families" (page 141). In their analysis of the results, Hanson, McLanahan, and Thomson illustrate that well-being of children in "original, two-parent households" exceeds the well-being of children in stepfather households or single-parent households for all eight of the diagnostic indices: (1) school performance, (2) grade point average, (3) no school behavior problems, (4) low externalizing, (5) low internalizing, (6) sociability, (7) initiative, and (8) quality of life. (See Dawson, 1991; Pillay, 1987 for additional examples). Once married, children of single-parent families are also more likely to develop marital problems of their own (Morrison & Chedin, 1995; Silvestri, 1992; Wallerstein & Blakeslee, 1989; Wallerstein, Demo, & Acock, 1992); just as individuals who are divorced and remarried have an increased likelihood to be re-divorced (Goode, 1993; National Center for Health Statistics, 1996). Thus, to the extent that mothers and the judicial and legislative systems preclude the biological and social father from the family structure, the more that they diminish the well-being of the mothers' and the fathers' children. Conversely, to the extent that mothers plus the judicial and legislative systems choose to encompass the biological and social father within the family structure, the more that they enhance the well-being of the children (see Popenoe, 1996; Blankenhorn, 1995 for complementary discussions on this topic).

3. Educational disengagement The U.S. Department of Education (Hofferth, West, & Henke, 1994) was concerned about students' low achievement in the educational system. In its analysis of a survey of stu-

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Table 4 Median Income by Type of Family: 1993 (U.S. Bureau of the Census 1995) Median Income

Percentage of Married-couple Families

All families Married-couple Families Wife worked Wife did not work Male Householder Female Householder

$38,782 $44,959 $53,309 $31,176 $27,751 $18,236

86.3% 100.0% 118.6% 69.3% 61.7% 40.6%

With Related Minor Children Married-couple Female Householder

$37,925 $47,244 $14,902

84.4% 105.1% 33.1%

Type of Family

dents and their achievement levels, the Department of Education isolated eight major variables/factors which were most predictive of poor school adjustment on the part of the students. One of the eight factors was "single parent household" (read: mother-only household; see Downey, 1994 for a similar argument). A second was poverty. A term which was used to highlight the poor achievement was "disengagement." Once the child was disengaged from the school environment--and subsequently performed quite poorly in that environment--it was virtually impossible to re-engage that child into the school's mainstream (Finn, 1993). In fact, living with one parent was a marker or predictor for lowered levels of attending college. Conversely, living with two parents was a predictor of an increased chance that the child would attend college (Gose, 1996). For examples and discussion on the enhanced achievement of children with fathers within the school system, see Downey (1994), Krein and Belier (1988), and Thompson, Alexander, and Entwisle (1988). 4. Fatherlessness and family income

It is demographic reality that families headed by a unwed mother are, by far, the families which have the least earned income available to them (see Table 4). A mainstay in Sociology are the notions that (1) reduced income restricts life-style opportunities and (2) an increased income enhances life-style opportunities e.g. Hollingshead 1949, 1975, inter alios. Hence, if a woman "chooses" a sexual partner which eventuates in a single parent birth (father preclusion) or if the woman jettisons the father via divorce (father abrasion), then the child's achievement trajectory becomes sub-optimal. The child is penalized. 5. Fatherlessness and violent crime

There is a tendency for children from fatherless homes to be over-represented in categories of unwanted behavior. This tendency has been known for decades (Adams, Miln e r , & Schrepf, 1984; Anderson, 1968; Bereczkei & Csanaky, 1996; Blau & Blau, 1982;

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Table 5 Correlations (rp) Across States & District of Columbia Between Percent of Live Births which were Out-of-Wedlock and Rates of Violent Crime for the Same Time Frame (1987-1993; n = 51) and for a Time Lag of 19 years (1970-1974 to 1989-1993; n = 39) (U.S. Bureau of the Census 1972-1996)

Year of Out-of- Wedlock Births

Year of Violent Crime Rates

Correlation (rp)

Percentage of Explained Variance (r.) 2

1993 1992 1991 1990 1989 1988 1987 Mean(sd)

1993 1992 1991 1990 1989 1988 1987

.796* .773* .796* .815" .813" .780* .757* .790(.02)*

63.4% 59.8% 63.4% 66.4% 66.1% 60.8% 57.3% 62.4% (3.3%)

1974 1973 1972 1971 1970 Mean(sd)

1993 1992 1991 1990 1989

.901" .894* .871" .870* .874* .882 (.01)*

81.2% 79.9% 75.9% 75.7% 76.4% 77.8% (2.5%)

Note:

* p < .001.

Chilton & Merkle, 1972; Monahan, 1972; Mosher, 1969; Robins & Hill 1966; Stevenson & Black, 1988). See Mischel (1961a; 1961b) and Mackey (1985; 1996); cf Smith and Krohn (1995) for theoretical orientations on the suggested linkage. See Wilson and Herrnstein (1985), Draper and Harpending (1982), Blankenhorn (1995), and Popenoe (1996) for reviews of the literature.

Single Parent Births and Violent Crime Of interest to this inquiry is the relationship between rates of single parent births within a community and the level of violent crime within that community (note that the following analysis applies to single-parent births--father preclusion--and not to divorce--father abrasion). Rates of single parent births and rates of violent crime are both coded by and recorded by states and the District of Columbia (U.S. Bureau of the Census, 1996). In 1993, the relationship between the two variables was a positive one (rp = .795; p < .01; 2-tailed). As rates of out-of-wedlock births increased, so did rates of violent crime. A rather robust 63.2% (.7952 = .632 = 63.2%) of the differences in levels of violent crime can be accounted for by difference in single parent births. Nonetheless, it is arguable that 1993 was an unusual year, and generalizations from that year to any other time frame are problematic. To address this possibility, the years 1987 to 1993 were analyzed as a single block of time.

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Out-of-Wedlock Births and Violent Crime (1987-1993) F o r this time interval, the average correlation between violent crime and out-ofowedlock births was significant (rp = .790 [sd = 021]; p < .001; n = 51). The mean percentage o f explained variance was 62.4% (.7902 = .624 = 62.4%; see Table 5). 1

Cross-cultural data A Nordic Sample Percentages o f out-of-wedlock births and rates o f assault per 100,000 population who are 15 years or older (14 years for Norway) were available from Denmark, Finland, Norway, and Sweden for the interval 1959-1990 (Nordic Statistical Secretariat, 1960-1992). The correlations between percentage of births which were out-of-wedlock and assaults were significant for all four nations (Denmark, (rp = .970, p < .001, n = 23), Finland (rp = .851, p < .001; n = 20), Norway (rp = .973; p < .001, n = 23), and Sweden (rp = .945; p < .001; n = 22).

A Global Sample In a wider sample (INTERPOL, 1990), rates o f serious assault and out-of-wedlock births were found to be related. As the percentage of all live births which were out-of-wedlock increased, so did the rates of serious assault (rp = .436; p < .05; 2-tailed; n = 38). The relationship between out-of-wedlock births and violent crime also holds when "murder" is used to index the violent crime (rp = .443, p < .01; 2-tailed; df = 42; Archer & Gartner, 1984; Smith-Morris, 1991; United Nations, 1992). 2 A fairly respectable 19.6% (.4432 = 196 = 19.6%) of the differences in murder rates can be attributed to changes in the differences in the levels o f single parent births. (Note that the definition by the United Nations for legitimacy includes the following: Legitimate refers to persons born of parents who were married at the time of birth in accordance with the laws of the country or area. Illegitimate refers to children of parents who, according to national law, were not married at the time of birth, regardless of whether these children have been recognized or legitimized after birth [United Nations 1992, p. 104]). Easy interpretations are difficult here. Clearly, the single parent mothers are not commitring the violent crimes. The commission o f violent crimes is " m a n ' s work," especially the work of young men. Similarly, the male babies who are newly born are not committing the violent crimes. They are too young and much too small. However, o f interest, the U. S. correlation (across available states and D.C.) between out-of-wedlock births in 1974 and violent crime rates in 1993 was significant (rp = .910, p < .001 ; n = 39) and higher (t = 4.013; p < .001; df= 36) than the computed correlation in the same year for the two indices (rp = .796). Again, to avoid isolating an aberrant year, let's do the same procedure for four additional and consecutive years to have a five year interval (1970-1974) for out-of-wedlock births and a five year interval (1989-1993) for rates o f violent crime. The average correlation for the five year comparison was significant (rp = .882 [s.d. = .014]; p < .001; n = 39; see Table 5). In addition, this figure (rp = .882) is higher (t = 3.20; p < .01; 2-tailed; df = 36) than the mean correlation

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between the percentages of out-of-wedlock births and rates of violent crime from the interval of years (1987 - 1993), i.e. rp = .790. A similar result was found in all four countries which comprised the Nordic sample. If an interval of 19 years is used to separate the level of out-of-wedlock births (a prior event) and rates of assault (a subsequent event), the correlations are still significant (the correlations (rp) range from .889 to .949; p < .001; n = 13). Any attempt to untangle correlation versus causality is beyond the scope of this inquiry. Therefore, the only safe interpretation is that where one fmds a low level of out-of-wedlock births, one also finds a low level of violent crime. Conversely, if one were to find a place where there are high levels of out-of-wedlock births, one is likely to find a high level of violent crime (see Draper & Belsky, 1994 for a theoretical discussion). Thus, when single parent births become normative within a society, increased levels of violent crime, including murder, w i l l also be found with all the attendant costs in life, limb, and property.

Synopsis: A Question of Priorities As the 20th century ends, the expectation has become embedded in the folkways/mores of the United States that the priority of women's autonomy is clearly more potent than the additional ply of children's well-being as generated by social and biological fathers. The legal institutions protect the woman's independence, and there is no effective public will which would pressure the legislatures which, in turn, would re-adjust those legal institutions.

The Descent of Fertility Birth Rates In the United States, the general tendency over the centuries has been for a decline in birth rates (the number of births per 1,000 population). In 1920, the birth rate was 27.7. During the depression, the birth rate dipped into the low 20s and high teens. The famous post-war baby boom increased the rates to the mid-twenties until the mid- 1960s. Then there was a continuous decline to the middle teens where the rates have stabilized, at least for the present. The question becomes: "Why did the birth rates drop?" There was no imperative for fertility to decrease. Diets were better. Health was better. Maternal mortality was at a very low level, i.e. pregnancies were far less dangerous than before World War II. In 1915, the maternal mortality was 608 maternal deaths per 100,000 live births. This figure dropped to 83 in 1950 and 7.8 in 1992 (U.S. Bureau of the Census, 1975; 1997). The following section examines the context of decreasing fertility.

Individuals are Mortal, the Commonweal need not be While everyone on the planet is guaranteed a death, tribes or societies are not so obligated. As long as a community can retain political and social integrity and as long as the communities of men and women raise competent and viable offspring (in excess of 2,100 children per 1,000 mothers), then the community can expect perpetual existence. Cultural formulae which are so forged as to churn out loyal, fecund, well-socialized citizens are cultural formu-

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lae destined for longevity. In the America of 1920, a formula which had been honed for millennia was intact and effective. To wit: the home was an economic unit with very strong division of labor. Wives, as a class, were expected to marry, become parents, and become homemakers. Men, as a class, were expected to marry, become parents, and become breadwinners. Infant mortality was, by contemporary standards, horrifically high. Accordingly, if replacement value were to be achieved per family unit, then consecutive and successive pregnancies were simply part of life. Artificial birth control had often been inserted into the folklore as an event which was inappropriate, unnatural, or sinful (see Rosenblatt et al., 1973 for examples and discussion). Regardless of the level of individual discomfort or the thwarting of personal preferences, the cultural formula which had proven successful for the commonweal was perpetuated by its own momentum. Biocultural groups which could not sustain the 2,100+ children per 1,000 women disappeared; either replaced or displaced by intact bio-cultural groups which could generate the next generation of their own group. The ethnographic literature is replete with extinct groups. Death per individual is a constant. Grandchildren per individual is a variable.

Married Women in the Labor Force In 1920, about 9.0% of ever married women (including widowed, divorced, and separated women) were employed in the labor force. By 1940, this figure reached 16.7%, and by 1950 the figure was nearly one-in-four (24.8%). By 1960, the percentage of wives who (1) were living with their husband and (2) were also working reached 31.9% (the figure is higher if widows, the divorced and separated women are also included). By 1970, the percentage of working wives with husband present reached 40.5%. By 1980, the figure neared the halfway mark (49.9%) and by 1995, the figure was approaching the two-thirds mark: 61.0% (U.S. Bureau of the Census, 1975; 1998). For the span of years that data are available, the correlation between birth rates and percent of wives (as opposed to all adult women) who were working in the labor force was negative and significant (rp = -.795; p < .001; n = 48). Nearly two-thirds of the variance in work force participation can be explained by variance in decreases in birth rates (-.7952 = .632 = 63.2%). That is, as wives increasingly entered the labor force, birth rates decreased (see Appendix II for additional relationships among the demographic variables). As mentioned earlier, the United States as a commonweal has been below replacement value since 1972. It is a logical category that the United States is such a unique cultural amalgam that any exploration which would seek to embed the United States in larger themes or patterns would be futile. However, conception, gestation, and altricial infants are independent of era and are, at base, identical across the world's community of cultures. Thus, there is an intuitive sense that the cultural dynamics described for the United States may be profitably fitted into a larger cross-cultural matrix. Fortunately, organizations, e.g. the United Nations, have gathered current data which offer the opportunity to test out the two alternative hypotheses: (1) the United States is distinct and not comparable with other cultural forms or (2) general patterns are in evidence, and the United States is a fairly good example of such patterns.

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Method "Nation," although a coarse filter, becomes the unit of analysis: even though the more coarsely gained the filter, the higher the probabilities of false negatives. There were 152 nations surveyed by the various international organizations (United Nations, 1990; 1992; 1995; UNESCO, 1994; Wofldmark Encyclopedia of Nations, 1995) which had data for the dependent variable: percent of annual rate of natural increase. The percent of annual rate of natural increase is found by subtracting the death rate (number of deaths per 1,000 population per year) from the birth rate (number of births per 1,000 per year). If the number resulting from the subtraction is positive, then the referent population is growing: the larger the number, the faster the growth. If the number resulting from the subtraction is zero, then population stability has occurred. If the number is negative, then the population is shrinking: the larger the negative number, the faster the shrinkage.

Independent Variables Four independent variables will be utilized: (1) the reliance upon a cash economy (as indexed by the per capita gross domestic product [GDP]), (2) the percentage of females, rather than males, in tertiary institutions (educational institutions beyond high school (secondary institutions) generally associated with preparing the students for a specialized career), (3) the percentage of females, rather than males, in their country's national parliament, and (4) the percent of the labor force which is engaged in agriculture. It should be noted that not all nations had available data for all four independent variables, i.e. the "n's" varied from 115 (percent of females in national parliament) to 149 (per capita income and percent of labor force in agriculture). The rationale behind the selection of the variables is the following. As a group, in this case a nation, becomes developed, its economy moves from subsistence peasant agriculture to larger scale mercantile, industrialized commerce. People leave the subsistence farm for jobs with wages and salaries. Subsequently, as this development progresses, the need for specialized training of a work force, paid in cash, also increases. Unless strong sanctions (folkways and mores) prohibit or inhibit their entry into this work force, women will enter such a work force in large numbers and proportions. For discussion and examples, see Bulatao, Lee, Hollerbach, and Bongaarts (1983), Caldwell (1982), Day and Mackey (1986), Easterlin and Crimmins (1985), Fawcett (1983), Handwerker (1986), Aghajanian (1977; 1988), Bradley (1984), Nag, White, and Peet (1978), Ross and Harris (1987), and Sivard (1995); cf. Brown (1970). In the case of the United States, women had access to those jobs away from the home, and the women availed themselves of those jobs.

Resul~ The percent of natural increase was significantly related to all four independent variables (see Figure 1). The correlation coefficients (rp) ranged from -.430 (p < .001; n = 143) to .551 (p < .001; n = 149). The amount of explained variance in the percent of annual natural increase ranged from 18% (rp 2 = -.4302 = .185 = 18.5%) to 30% (rp 2 = .5512 = .304 = 30.4%). In gist, as (1) the per capita income, (2) the percent of females in the national parliament, and (3) the percent of females in tertiary education institutions increased, the percent of natural

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CASH ECONOMY: PER CAPITA INCOME

-,456 * PERCENTAGE OF FEMALES IN TERTIARY INSTITUTIONS ' " ~~7 '

PERCENTAGE OF FEMALES IN NATIONAL

4 ~ 3P A R0~L I A M " ENT

PERCENTAGE OF LABOR FORCE IN AGRICULTURE

1

PERCENT OF NATURAL INCREASE

* p < .001 R =.666;

p<.001;

n = 111

adj. • =.423 or 42.3% Figure 1.

Demographic parameters of natural increase

increase was lowered. As the percent of the labor force which was engaged in agriculture decreased, the percent of natural increase was also lowered. When the four independent variables acted in concert, the results were also significant (R = .666; p < .001, n = 111) with over 40% of the variance in annual percent of natural increase explained by the set of four variables (adjusted R 2 = .423 = 42.3%; see Figure 1). Hence, the United States seems consonant with the cross-national pattern. Compared to the sample's average, the United States has a relatively low rate of natural increase (1.0% versus 1.7%), a relatively high percent of its tertiary students who are female, (52% versus 41%), a relatively low percentage of its population in (subsistence) agriculture (3.3% versus 34.8%), a relatively high per capita GDP ($26,980 versus $7,047) and a relatively high percentage of women in Congress (10.0% versus 9.8%). Consequently, the United States demographics seem more reflective of cross-national trends rather than representing a unique outlier in the wodd's community of cultures. However, it should be noted, if not emphasized, that sub-groups within the wide spectrum of American cultural alternatives which do have a high level of natural increase include the Amish, the Mormons, the Hasidic Jews, and the Hutterites. In each of these sub-cultures, to

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NANCY S. CONEY AND WADE C. MACKEY Table 6

Birth Expectations of Women by Educational Attainment in 1982 (from Bianchi & Spain 1986) and 1992 (U.S. Bureau of the Census, 1997). Year~Age and Years of School Completed

Births to Date

Percentage Expecting No Births

1982 Total, Ages 18 - 34 years Not high school graduate High School, 4 years College, 1 to 3 years College, 4 years College, 5 years or more

1.1 1.7 1.2 0.8 0.6 0.6

11.6% 8.7% 10.3% 13.1% 15.7% 18.7%

1992 Total, Ages 18 - 34 years Not high school graduate High School, 4 years College, 1 to 3 years College, 4 years College, 5 years or more

1.1 1.8 1.3 0.8 0.7 0.6

9.3% 7.6% 9.0% 10.0% 10.3% 12.0%

various degrees, the women are precluded from political and economic power structures within their own referent groups (Hostetler, 1974; Kraybill, 1993; Kraybill & Olshan, 1994; Nonaka, Miura, & Peter, 1994; Wasao & Donnermeyer, 1996). For example, the Hutterites, as reported by the Alberta (Canadian) government grew from a small group of 443 individuals in 1880 to 21,521 in 1972, a growth by a factor of 48 in less than five generations (Stephenson, 1991). Umble (1996) reports that, by age of 45, the average Amish woman had given birth to 7.1 children. Furthermore, part of the United States myth system is the richly textured imagery of "education." Aligned with more "education" experienced is the expectation that one's life-chances would be up-graded (Jencks, et al., 1972; 1979). Also aligned with more "education experienced" is the reduction of number of children per woman and this alignment of an inverse relationship between education and fertility has been known for decades and widely covered as such. (U.S. Bureau of the Census, 1997). (See Table 6.) It is of interest that American women avoid having zero children (nulliparity). Nearly 95% of women 55 years of age have ever married. Of these 95%, nearly 90% (87.7%) have had at least one child. Only 12.3% were childless (U.S. Bureau of the Census 1998). Of these, some were certainly childless by choice, but others, just as certainly, were involuntarily infertile, e.g. tubal occlusions. Of those who never married, approximately 30% of those women have had at least one child. So, American women are not rejecting motherhood. They seem to be rejecting multiparity. If such volitional avoidance is the case, what then would be the factors which could transduce the (current) avoidance of multiparity to the acceptance of multiparity? A brief review of motivations toward parenting seems useful. As in any other human behavior, three thematic and interdependent types of motivation are available: (1) the social, (2) the economic, and (3) the psychological.

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1. Social Motivations The (social) motivations for the (American) woman to choose to become a multiparous mother seem minimal. Whereas other cultures view childlessness as a condition to be avoided, and social pressures are subtly and not-so-subtly applied to correct the condition (Rosenblatt et al., 1973), the United States is not a good example of a culture where plural parenthood is a social imperative. Having even one child tends to lower adult participation in social events which are aimed at adults. There are virtually no public and formal sanctions which encourage and reward parenting, and there is no social opprobrium directed at childlessness or at parents who leave the parenting role via divorce. Germalne Greer offered one such perspective with her sentiment that "Common morality now treats childbearing as an aberration. There are practically no good reasons left for exercising one's fertility." Hence, social incentives, which would meaningfully enhance the entry and the constancy of women in the role of multiparous mother appear non-existent. 2. Economic Motivations With virtually no exceptions, children in the current United States are economic costs 3 (although this was not always the case; see Zelizer, 1985 for discussion). Children can be economic "black holes" which can absorb huge quantities of resources, i.e. money. Whereas children in alternate cultures are often net economic benefits to their parents (Aghajanian, 1979; 1988; Bradley, 1984; Nag, White, & Peet, 1978), such is not the reality in the United States. Child labor laws and mandatory formal schooling create a situation wherein children will consume much more than they will produce: the more children, the more the magnitude of the cost to the parents. For diverse discussions on the economics of parenthood/childhood, see Adams, Milner, and Schrepf (1984), Arnold, et al. (1975), Bulatao, et al. (1983), Caldwell (1982), Cochrane (1983), Easterlin & Crimmins (1985), Fawcett (1983), Handwerker (1986), and Ross and Harris (1987). Accordingly, to the extent that parents would rather spend their money on goods-and-services for themselves than for their children, the economics of parenthood would be more of a disincentive rather than an incentive. An economic basis to recruit men and women into the United States parenting-role does not seem efficacious. 3. Psychological incentives The psychological rubric could include the satisfaction with the status of motherhood, the satisfaction of doing "motherly" behaviors, and the satisfaction of loving and being loved by her child(ren). Of course, all of the aforementioned can be accrued from having a single child. Any marginal increment of psychological satisfaction derived from additional children seems qualified. On the other side of the conceptual coin, there do seem to be psychological disincentives to (plural) parenthood. Disincentives of Parenting Five pieces of disparate evidence are presented which suggest that being a parent, i.e. being a mother, may not generate high levels of satisfaction. The five are: ( 1) birth rates, (2) Ann Landers, (3) surveyed spouses, (4) surveyed parents, and (5) aversive events from normal children.

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1. Birth rates

As birth control technology has increased and as the proportion of the population living on family farms has dwindled to single digits, birth rates in the United States have consistently dropped. As mentioned earlier, the United States birth rates, as measured by the number of children per woman has been below replacement value since 1972. Said a little differently, when men and women have a chance to have fewer children, they generally accept that opportunity. Part of the solidification by "learning theory" in its academic niche has been achieved by noting that people (just as pigeons and Norwegian white rats) will repeat those behaviors which give them satisfaction or pleasure and avoid those behaviors which cause them discomfort or distress. The decrease in birth rates, i.e. the fewer number of children per family, is offered as prima facie evidence that rearing children is questionable in terms of generating net psychological rewards. If children were, on balance, more positive than otherwise, stopping at one or two, over a twenty-five year fertility range, seems at odds with classical (operant or respondent) learning theory. 2. Ann Landers

In 1975, the popular and populist columnist Ann Landers (1976) queried her readers. "If you had it to do over again, would you have had children?" Nearly 10,000 responses were sent to her. Over 70% of the responses were negative. The majority of the parents indicated a strong dissatisfaction with their parenting experiences. Even though the respondents represent sampling problems of the highest order, the sample was an excellent pilot study which certainly asks an interesting question and posits testable and falsifiable hypotheses. Yet there seems to be no evidence of any follow-up with much more rigorous sampling techniques. 3. Surveyed spouses

A number of studies on marital happiness, e.g. Heaton (1990), Neal, Groat, and Hicks (1989), Rankin and Maneker (1985), Suiter (1991), Wait, Haggstrom, and Kanouse (1985) converge on the notion that those years of marriage which include young children are the least happy years for the spouses. The syllogism is rarely finished: it is the children who create extra stress in a marriage. Somewhat paradoxically, the presence of children also seem to partially immunize the parents from divorce. After being matched for demographic and economic variables, couples with children had a lower chance of being divorced than couples without children (Heaton, 1990; Rankin & Maneker, 1985; Waite, Haggstrom, & Kanouse, 1985). Renne' s (1976) work is informative. Renne surveyed 2,480 married couples and examined the health and well-being of the couples. Her conclusions indicated the following: (a) Parenthood detracts from the physical and psychological health of husbands and wives, particularly among younger couples. (b) Rates of joint marital satisfaction are also lower for active parents than for former parents and for childless couples (independent of the duration of the marriage and the wife's age and employment status). (c) Parenthood may be detrimental to both health and martial satisfaction. This conclusion is suggested by the fact that former parents were better off then active parents (on both indexes): although not as well off as the childless couples.

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4. Surveyed parents As part of their large survey National Survey of Family and Households, Bumpass, and Sweet (1986) found that as the number of children increased, the youngest child was consistently evaluated by the parent as less appealing when compared to the evaluations by the parent of the child's older siblings.

5. Aversive events from children In his under-cited monograph Mothers: the Unacknowledged Victims, Patterson (1980) recorded normal children's behavior as they behaved in normal families. The sampling problems in Ann Landers' situation were not repeated in Patterson's study. His results found that these normal children created "aversive events" for the mother at a rate of 20 per hour, and the typical mother was suffering from "dysphoria": read "battle fatigue." Hyperactive children or those who were, in some manner, behavioral problems, escalate the "density of aversive events" and the level of dysphoria.

S~o~s Hence, the argument has been made that "motherhood," while perhaps very important to any given woman, is not consistently the highest priority for women as a class. For any given American woman, her entry in multiparity is problematic. The next most obvious question becomes: "What does a community do, if its women reject (multiparous) motherhood? How would it react?" Even a public and serious scrutiny, much less a castigation, of"motherhood" as an institution may itself create a good deal of social turbulence. Kuhn's (1970) idea of a paradigm is relevant here. Virtually all societal baselines or frames of reference include the mother-child dyad which acts as a spine of the society (Barry & Paxson, 1971; Hendrix, 1996; Hewlett, 1992; Mackey, 1996; Weisner & Gallimore, 1977; Schlegel, 1972). Attached to this spine is a consistent ongoing man, a social father. The man is usually the biological father, but occasionally the mother' s brother (avunculus) fulfills the role. This triad of man-woman-child is an epicenter around which all other societal institutions must seamlessly mesh. If the woman herself perturbates the triadic core, then it is argued here that the society really has no perspective on how to deal with the perturbation. There is no precedent, hence no paradigm, available to guide societal responses.

Potential reactions by the commonweal There is the logical category that somehow the referent society could reverse the tendency of women to minimize the number of children per woman. However, there is no model or example which could be followed or emulated. The United States is in terra incognita (Ross & Harris, 1987). The logical category of an automatic demographic thermostat which could adjust fertility levels upward or downward as needed does not seem to be matched with any empirical category illustrating the existence of such a thermostat. Intuitively, the most likely reaction to a lack of enthusiasm for multiparous motherhood seems to be displacement or replacement by alternative groups which manifest multiparous motherhood. Lands will not remain empty. A contemporary illustration is available from a comparison between the nations of Europe with those of the Islamic Middle East.

102

NANCY S. CONEY AND WADE C. MACKEY Table 7

Countries in Europe (n = 40) versus Countries in a Moslem Swathe (n = 25) along Four Demographic Indices European Index

Mean

s.d.

Annual rate of natural increase 0.04 Percent of female tertiary students 49.2 Percent of labor force in agriculture 13.4 GDP per capita income (in dollars) 11,991

0.4 5.9 9.9 1,029

Moslem Swathe Mean

3.0 38.5 36.1 3,893

s.d.

p<

1.1 17.0 23.4 5,510

.001 .01 .001 .01

Europe versus the Moslem Swathe

There were appropriate demographic data for 40 of Europe's countries (i.e. a sample with n = 40 ). The second sample was a swathe of 25 countries which begins with Mauritania and runs eastward across northern Africa through the Middl~ East to Pakistan (n = 25 nations). In these countries, the Moslem religion is dominant. The percentage of the annual rate of natural increase for the Moslem swathe was 3.0 (s.d. = 1.1) which was higher than that of Europe (mean = 0.5 [s.d. = 0.5]) (t[63] = 152.7; p < .001; see Table 7). Aligned with the higher rate of natural increase, the Moslem swathe, compared to Europe, also had (1) a lower percent of females in tertiary educational institutions, (2) a lower percent of females in their national Parliaments, (3) a larger percent of their labor force engaged in agriculture, and (4) a lower GDP per capita income (see Table 7). Although these two sub-samples share a geographic propinquity (the Circum-Mediterranean region) their demographics are quite distinct. Virtually all of the European countries are below replacement value of 2.1 children per female (or 2,100 children per 1,000 females). Virtually all of the countries in the Moslem swathe are well above replacement value. The argument being made here is that any group which is operating below replacement value will tend to be supplanted by or displaced by any groups which are operating above replacement value. As the displacement occurs, the immigrants bring with them their societal mosaics which generated the occasion of the displacement. Part of their societal mosaic would include the elevated fertility rates which, in turn, entails expectations of a primacy of the mother role for women. An important facet of the worldview found within the Moslem swathe is the strongly held view of gender complementarity, rather than gender egalitarianism or gender equality. As a consequence of this initial premise, male and female roles become, in the main, quite separate. For example, the countries of the Moslem swathe are generally considered to be highly patriarchical with women precluded from positions of economic or political power, and from a wide spectrum of occupations. Authors, including feminist ideologues, who have written ethnographic accounts of the relevant Moslem countries invariably refer to the strongly patriarchal character of the political and economic structures. The question is never "Is the country patriarchal?" The ethnographic accounts revolve around how the patriarchy developed and how is it maintained. For example, Ahmed (1992) writes: The subordination of women in the ancient Middle East appears to have become institutionalized with the rise of urban societies and with the rise of the archaic state in particular..."and, as Islam crystallized its theology, implicit in this new order was the male right to control women and to interdict their interactions with other men. Thus the ground was

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prepared for the closures that would follow." See Kadioglu (1994) for a parallel argument for women's role in Turkey. Toubia (1988, pp. 2-3) makes the case quite clearly: "Arab women are dominated by men in every area of life in the patriarchal family system: state, political party, trade union and public and private institutions of all types." She noted that over 97% (97.2%) of the Yemeni women, as late as 1975, were illiterate. Badran (1995, p. 5) notes that "the woman was perceived as essentially or exclusively, a sexual being, unlike the man who was only partly understood in terms of his sexuality." Gerami (1996, p. 157) views the current version of Islamic fundamentalism as "...nipping a very young feminist movement in the bud and under the banner of nature's mandate, pushed women further into the family. They managed to cast woman's individualistic identity as a perversion of her nature plotted by Western imperialists." Obermeyer (1995, p. 370) observes that the "Islamic emphasis on complementarity rather than equality in gender roles" makes dialogue with a world view predicated on equality rather than complementarity extremely difficult. Inhorn (1996) writes that: "In a society (Egypt) where the patriarchal fertility mandate is emphatic, the social and psychological consequences of missing motherhood---of being a woman unableto deliver a child for her husband, family, affines, community, faith, nation, and not inconsequentially her--are nothing if not profound" (for reviews of the literature, see AI-Qazzaz, 1977; Ansari, 1973; Hekmat, 1997; Kamali, 1984; Meghdessian, 1980; Mernisse, 1991; Raccagni, 1978; Tucker, 1993; for theoretical overviews, see Lerner, 1986; Walby, 1990). Thus, the European sample with fertility levels below replacement value and an ideology biased toward gender egalitarianism is geographically situated next to a Moslem sample with fertility levels well above replacement value and an ideology biased toward gender complementarity, wherein the woman is constrictedtoward the mother role. In terms of cultural evolution, the inertia would seem to be with the Moslem swathe's bio-cultural formula and its displacement of that of the Europeans. Below is empirical support for the reality of such a displacement. Emigration and Immigration In an example of cultural diffusion, emigrants tend to flow from high fertility, lower income areas to low fertility, higher income areas. In the context of this article, emigrants from the Moslem swathe would be expected to gravitate toward (Western) European nations. When they enter and settle into their new homeland, they, of course, bring with them the world-views, expectations, and traditions which had successfully lead to their own socialization. This cultural package includes an anticipation of relatively high fertility. For example, Turkish immigrants into Austria average 4.43 children per woman. This figure is more than twice the figure for Austrian nationals (1.64 children per woman). Moroccan immigrants into Belgium average 5.7 children, and Turkish women average 5.0 children. Both of these averages are more than three times the mean number of children per Belgium nationals (1.6). Pakistan immigrants into Great Britain average 5.3 children per woman. This figure is more than triple the figure for Great Britain's average of 1.7. French nationals average 1.82 children per woman which is less than half of immigrants from Algeria (4.24), Morocco (4.47), Tunisia (4.67), and Turkey (4.55). German woman average about 1.3 children each whereas Turkish immigrants average more than twice that number (2.9 children). Dutch women average 1.6 children, but Turkish women who emigrate to the Netherlands average 3.1 children and Moroccan emigrants average 4.7 children. Finally, Swedish woman average 2.1 children, but Turkish emigrants average 3.45 children (Coleman, 1994; see White,

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1997; Morris, 1997 for discussion). Thus, each of the two demographic profiles (Europe and the Moslem swathe), is not isolated from the other, but does illustrate a dynamic wherein cultural mosaics with higher fertility will displace or replace cultural mosaics with lower fertility. The German example is illustrative here. From 1960 to 1990, the proportion of births in which at least one of the parents was non-German increased eightfold (from 2% to 16.9%) (Statistisches Bundesamt, 1992). In addition, when fertility rates, again measured by children ever born (live) per thousand women, are used as the index, a similar picture emerges. In 1970, the fertility rate was 2010 lifetime births per 1,000 German women and 2176 for non-German women. That is, the rate was about 8% higher for non-German women. By 1990, the rate for German women dropped to 1,420 lifetime births. The rate for non-German women had dropped to 1,900 lifetime births; yet was nearly a third higher than that of German women (Statistisches Bundesamt, 1992). Thus, even though native Germans are reproducing below replacement value, the land is not becoming empty, non-Germans are more than willing and able to move and to take up the slack (see Coleman, 1994 for similar examples from other European countries and see Morris, 1997 for further examples and analysis). In terms of overall population growth in Germany, a hefty 128% of Germany's growth is due to immigration (Martin & Widgren, 1996). Conversely, European migration to the Moslem swathe is meager to non-existent. Therefore, demographic, empirical evidence does become available to illustrate the trajectory of cultural evolution. Societal mosaics in which the image of motherhood is aligned with the behaviors of multiparous mothers replace societal mosaics in which a disjunction occurs between image and behavior.

Conclusion It seems self-evident that, while everyone who is currently alive, is guaranteed to have ancestors, not everyone who is currently alive will be guaranteed grandchildren. It is equally self-evident that everyone who is currently alive will be dead within just a few generations: a little more than four if the individual is more fortunate; less than one if the individual is less fortunate. For the 22nd century, the land on the planet will most assuredly be populated by those descendants whose ancestors had children whose children had children and so on. The biocultural packages of those groups whose women actualized multiparity, almost with the power of a definition, would be more represented than those biocultural packages of those groups whose women avoided multiparity. The process appears rather inevitable. At present, no demographic thermostat has been suggested to exist by which an intact group could adjust from a fertility rate below replacement value to one at or above replacement value. Coerced insemination will not be accepted. Coerced pregnancy will not be accepted. Coerced parenting will not be accepted. Legal discrimination in relation to gender and occupation will not be accepted. Accordingly, those current intact social groups wherein the behaviors of women do not match the archetypal motherhood imagery, have no mechanism, philosophy, traditions, or cosmology with which to prevent, over generations, their own evaporation. Those intact social groups which consistently wedge women's behaviors to more parallel the archetypal imagery of "motherhood" would have a much greater opportunity at longevity across generations.

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Appendix 1 Most Important Reasons that W o m e n Gave for Petitioning for Divorce (by rank and by percentage of women who "checked" the reason for the divorce) for Six Surveys Survey, Rank, & Percentage Cleek & Pearson (1985)

Burns (1984)

Gigy & Kelly (1992)

Rank Reason Percentage Reason Percentage Reason Percentage 1 Lack of 69.7% Husband not 46% Growing 78% communication home enough apart 2 Wife is 59.9% Lack of 40% Feeling 73% unhappy communication unloved 3 Incompatibility 56.4% Sexual problems 40% Sexual problems 64% 4 Emotional Abuse 55.5% Other women 37% Unmet needs 64% 5 Financial problems 32.9% Financial problems 36% Differing values 63% 6 Sexual problems 32.1% Spouse's drinking 36% Feeling belittled 59% 7 Spouse's 30.0% Wife's lack 26% Spouse's 52% drinking of interest emotional problems 8 Infidelity 25.3% Husband's 21% Financial 50% of spouse cruelty problems 9 Physical 21.7% In-laws/ 21% Conflict over 47% abuse relatives gender roles 10 In-laws/ 10.7% Disagreement 19% Fighting 44% relatives over children Survey, Rank, & Percentage Thurnher et al. (1983) Divorces Involving at Least One Minor Child Rank Reason 1 Spouse's Drinking 2 Spouse has changed 3 Spouse is violent

Percentage Reason 18.8% Conflict in lifestyles 17.0% Idiosyncratic 16.5%

Financial reasons

Wife wants increased freedom Spouse is indifferent Sexual problems Spouse has changed Spouse is violent Spouse runs around Lack of communication

4

Strife

16.5%

5

Idiosyncratic

16.0%

6

Conflicts over lifestyles Spouse is demeaning Spouse runs around Financial problems Sexual problems

15.4%

7 8 9 10

Thurnher et al. (1983) Divorces Involving No Minor Children

15.3% 14.9% 13.6% 13.6%

Greif & Pabst (1988) Divorces Involving Minor Children

Percentage Reason Percentage 24.0% Marital 46.2% incompatibility 19.5% Husband was 23.4% unfaithful 17.1% Husband had 10.1% emotional problems 15.9% 13.4% 13.4% 12.2% 11.0% 9.8% 9.8%

Mentally abused Physically abused Husband left Had affair/ wanted to leave Own emotional problems Husband immature

9.1% 8.9% 5.8% 4.9% 3.7% 2.5%

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Appendix 2 Correlations Among the Four Demographic Variables

VARIABLE Divorce rates n Out-of-wedlock births n Birth rates n

Out-of-wedlock Births

Birth Rates

.844*

-.874* 48 -.765* 46

46

Percent of Working Wivesa .875* 48 .966* 46 -.795* 48

Note: aFrom1920-1959, all (ever)marriedwomen,from 1960onward, only marriedwomenlivingwith their husbands *p < .001

Notes 1. With rates of male u n e m p l o y m e n t - - a n index of poverty--partialled, the mean correlation between rates of violent crime and percentage of out-of-wedlock births was still significant (rp = .776, p < .001; n = 51) with 60% (.7762 = .602 = 60.2%) of the variance explained. 2. The two rates---for illegitimacy (6.7) and for murder (38.7) were--also available for the Philippines. However, the Philippines' murder rate of 38.7 was over 8.5 standard deviations (sd = 4.09) over the sample mean of 3.62. Accordingly, the Philippines was enough of an outlier to be excluded from the sample. If rankings were used to generate the correlation coefficient (rs) and if the Philippines is included in the sample, then the relationship between illegitimacy and murder rates is significant (rs = .889, p < .01; 2-tailed, n = 45). If the Philippines is not included in the sample, the correlation, based on ranRs, is still significant (rs = .896, p < .01; 2-tailed, n = 44). 3. There is room for legitimate debate on the notion that "welfare" entitlement packages involving minor children can act as an economic incentive. That debate, however, is beyond the scope of this exercise. 4. In 1960, 92.5% of the births in Germany were of German parents (another 6.3% of the children were born to single mother Germans). Two percent of the children were born to parents involving at least one non-German (0.1% a German father mad a non-German mother, 0.7% a German mother and a non-German father, and 1.2% to non-German mothers, either a single parent or with a non-German father). By 1990, the percentage of births to two German parents dropped to 73.5% (another 9.5% were born to single German mothers). By 1990, the percentage of births involving at least one non-German rose to 16.9% (2.2% a German father and a non-Germma mother, 2.8% a German mother and a non-German father, and 11.9% to non-German mothers, either a single parent birth or with a non-German father; Statistisches Bundesamt, 1992).

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About the Authors N a n c y S. Coney, M.S.W. is a professor at Western Illinois University and is interested in both the clinical and nonclinical aspects of women' s and men' s psychology, especially within the context o f family dynamics. W a d e C. M a c k e y , Ph.D. teaches at Tomball College and is interested in biocultural anthropology. He has authored two books on fathering based on his fieldwork from 23 different (sub)cultures: Fathering Behaviors (Plenum 1985) and The American Father (Plenum, 1996).