The future ESA Earth-Observation strategy and ESA's ‘Living Planet’ programme

The future ESA Earth-Observation strategy and ESA's ‘Living Planet’ programme

Acra Asrronaurica Vol. 46, Nos. 2-6, pp. 55-60, 2000 0 2000 Published by Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved PII:SOO94-5765(99)00195-2 Printed...

532KB Sizes 0 Downloads 59 Views

Acra Asrronaurica Vol. 46, Nos. 2-6, pp. 55-60, 2000 0 2000 Published by Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved

PII:SOO94-5765(99)00195-2

Printed in Great Britain $ see front matter

0094-5765/00

Keynote Address

THE FUTURE ESA EARTH-OBSERVATION STRATEGY ESA’S ‘LIVING PLANET’ PROGRAMME

AND

D.J. Southwood Directorate of Applications Programmes,

ESA, Paris

The European Space Agency future strategy for marks a big departure with the past. Following the series, ERSl, ERS2, Envisat, which have established no doubt of Europe’s technical capability, the new programme will focus on smaller but more frequent spacecraft. Individual missions will be much more focused for both scientific purpose and applications. Information from space Earth Observation is an essential element in Europe’s strategic armoury to meet the environmental and economic challenges of the next century. For the space community, the challenge will be to show that the small focussed approach really can meet the requirements for a much-reduced budget. Q 2000 Published by Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved INTRODUCTION

HISTORY

ESA’s new ‘Living Planet’ programme [as described for example by Arend et al., 19981 is designed to start of a new era in space Earth Observation work in Europe. For proponents of small satellites, it looks as if the message they have been propounding has been heard; there is no doubt that the spacecraft of the programme will normally meet most definitions of a small spacecraft. New methods of production have to be introduced, although often that means re-introduced as spacecraft started out small. However, budgets are going to be tight and there are an awful lot of challenges to be met. Overall, the future is going to be different from the past and an organisation like ESA serving a,very large community cannot afford to get it wrong. Large claims have been made for the virtues of small spacecraft approaches. However, the smallness of the spacecraft itself can only be part of the story. In Earth Observation, in contrast maybe to space science, it is usually not the spacecraft or the spacecraft engineering systems that are the real driver on cost. New sensors and instrumentation are normally the driver of cost and schedule for research Earth Observation spacecraft.

Europe began to establish its position in Earth Observation (EO) in the 197Os, both through ESRO/ESA initiatives (initially with Meteosat) and via national programmes (most notably, through the French SPOT programme). It has developed strong EO capabilities since, and through programrnes like ERS-1 and ERS2, Envisat and the Meteosat series, as well as other national programmes, most notably the French SPOT programme. However, as Envisat comes close to launch, a decision had to be made on what would follow. The Living Planet programme is the response. The challenge that it sets up is to move from a programme based on the launch of large multi-purpose spacecraft every 5 years or so, to a regime where focused spacecraft missions are the order of the day and the launch rate is closer to once per year. THE ENVELOPE CONCEPT

PROGRAMME

The European Space Agency is an example of the new Europe working together and that brings its own complications. National interests have to be satisfied whilst at the 55

56

Small Sutellites,fir Earth Observation

same time recognising the virtues of intraEuropean cooperation. The traditional ‘optional’ programme approach used in ESA, where each nation subscribes to an individual mission according to their aspirations and/or perceived (industrial, technical or scientific) benefit, grew out of these requirements. Only the Science Programme of the Agency was different; there all member nations subscribed in all aspects of the programme in proportion to their gross domestic product (GDP). The downside of optionality is that new ESA EO missions have required in the past separate subscription from each Member State at outset and retain a large element of managerial separation from other missions during in implementation. The new programme takes a new form, a multiple activity multi-mission programme known as the Envelope Programme (EOEP). The ‘envelope’ approach requires Member States (and closely collaborating nations like Canada) to subscribe to a programme, whose content includes not only multiple missions and allied activities but also the expectation that the programme will role forward on a similar basis in the future. The envelope introduces some of the flexibility of the Agency’s science programme without constraining nations to subscribe according to their GDP. The financial approach brings a new flexibility, where small ESA missions become thinkable. The gains in efficiency are not just in economies of scale. Fluctuations in one element of the programme can be offset against those in other parts. Motivation for managers to hand back savings is much improved once they know that saved resources will reappear elsewhere in the programme. The envelope means a long-term plan can now be made and one can plan against it. With that plan, technology can be pre-targeted, an instrument predevelopment programme instituted and risk consequently can be much reduced

during individual mission implementation. Moreover, instituting international cooperative programmes, where there are common interests with say Japan or the USA, is now much more straightforward as one can plan against an expectation of a budget. THE DEVELOPMENT PROGRAMME

OF THE NEW

The new programme will contain more focused missions in order to be more clearly ‘user-driven’. The principle of a userdriven programme based on two types of (smaller) Earth Observation missions had already been adopted at the ESA Council of Ministers in Toulouse: Earth Explorer: research/demonstration missions to advance the understanding of the different Earth system processes, including the demonstration of new observation techniques Earth Watch: prototype operational missions serving the operational applicationsoriented needs of the market. The Agency could only produce a ‘userdriven’ programme through consultation. In the past two years, the scientific, industrial and user Earth Observation communities as well as Member State Delegations, and Europe-wide entities like the European Commission (EC), Eumetsat, the Western European Union, and the European Environmental Agency have contributed to the debate. The overall consensus was that the days of technical demonstration are over; Europe has already proved its capabilities. New approaches are now needed, new ways of working, new user-orientated technical solutions, and new procedures for rapid implementation. The new ESA ‘Living Planet’ programme is the result. It fleshes out the Earth Explorer and Earth Watch ideas and makes it clear how both will be realised in a European context.

Small Satellites for Earth Observation

THE CONTENT OF THE NEW PROGRAMME Earth Explorers The Earth Explorers will be science-driven and will comprise two types of missions, namely: Core missions (major missions led by ESA to cover primary research objectives) Opportunity missions (smaller missions providing a quick reaction capability). The programme itself will run in many respects like the ESA science programme. As in the Science programme, Core missions will undergo competitive Phase A study. At present the first four are nearing completion. These are:

Atmospheric Dynamics: A mission based on the Doppler wind lidar technique characterisation of winds in 3-D.

for

Gravity: A mission to characterise the Earth’s gravity field and thereby improve knowledge of ocean circulation. Earth Radiation: A mission to delimit the processes governing the absorption and reflection of solar radiation by the atmosphere and the heat emission by the Earth and its atmosphere.

Land Processes: A mission using measurements in multiple spectral bands to understand processes and develop techniques to monitor vegetation and land cover. The missions will be presented to the scientific community in Autumn 1999 on completion of Phase A studies. Two will be recommended for implementation to the ESA Earth Observation Programme Board. The Opportunity Missions are an entirely new venture for ESA. The first are already selected. A call was issued in July 1998 and 27 responses were received in December. In late May 1999, the ESA PB-EO selected two missions, Cryosat ( a mission to

51

asses the polar ice) and SMOS (Soil moisture and salinity) for implementation. Strict financial constraints will be applied and a third mission (ACE, for atmospheric profiling) is being held in reserve as a ‘hot spare’. A firm financial limit will be placed on the missions (cost to ESA less than 80 Ma). Opportunity missions will be a test bed for new ways of working, which are going to be essential if these missions are going to be implemented fast and effectively. The lessons learned by industry, the Agency and even the scientists involved will no doubt feed through in approaches elsewhere, in particular perhaps in realising the Earth Watch element. Earth Watch Earth Watch-type missions are expected to bridge the transition from science and the demonstration of potential applications to really operational applications system and service provision. Finding the way to achieve these transitions is a grand challenge. Europe can argue that it has successfully done so in meteorological services from space. The Meteosat spacecraft and its successors in geostationary orbit MSG (Meteosat Second Generation) are now operated fully by the European Organisation for Exploitation of Meteorological Satellites (EUMETSAT). ESA remains involved in the development of new systems and improving technology. The first spacecraft for the new European polar meteorological system, Metop, is being developed jointly between ESA and EUMETSAT but operational responsibility belongs to EUMETSAT. ESA is a research and development agency and the sharing and handing over of responsibility between ESA-EUMETSAT is a model to be sought in other fields where long-term service provision is the ultimate aim. This idea underpins the Earth Watch concept. The issue now is to identify the

58

Small Satellites for Earth Observation

form of the operating entity and how it is financed. At present, industry has been given the chance to be an intermediary between ESA and the market for EO applications. The Agency’s call for Earth Watch Outline Mission Proposals received in 1998. showed industry’s willingness to exploit past investments in radar, multi-spectral techniques and visible and infrared sensor technology, and to move to the provision of Earth Observation operational services. Major themes for service development identified by the industry’s response to the call are natural hazard management (such as fires, floods, landslides), land use (agriculture, forestry, desertification) and mapping, coastal zone management The question now remains how to orchestrate developments. Ideally the market would drive but the diffuse nature of the EO market, the multiplicity of applications, the dependence in most sectors on publicly funded use, as well as the large areas of military common interest. As a next step, early in 1999, the major players in Europe’s space industry have been set the grand challenge of assessing its own investment strategy and of developing a plan for how Earth Watch will contribute to a European Earth Observation Applications system. The challenge will be to bring together all actors in an effective response to opportunities opening on a global market. One should not preclude focused Earth Watch calls coming in the future. What is clear, is that the Agency will only enter Earth Watch development plans with a clear indication of a path to an operational system and a significant level of investment from the proposed operators. At the same time, as it does for EUMETSAT, the Agency is continuing a strong programme of support for development of technology for many potential applications uses

Earth Watch type missions as well as the Earth Explorers require cost-effective implementation approaches. Here analysis needs to be made of the best means in the ESA context. The Development/Exploitation

Component

An important issue is early technology development and no technically qualified person is in doubt of its necessity for faster mission implementation. It has already been adopted implicitly in the Explorer Core Missions, as reported elsewhere by Tobias in these proceedings. Instrument pre-development retires risk. The biggest spend rate in space missions are when the largest number of people are working during phase C/D. Disaster hits when something blocks the critical path then. There should be no technical surprises from the payload in phases C/D, hence the use of instrument pre-development. Technology development, particularly directed at instruments/sensors is a major part of the final element of the programme, the Development and Exploitation Component. Overall the element encompasses: Instrument Pre-development (for identified/agreed candidates for Earth Explorer and Earth Watch type missions), Mission Exploitation (including already approved missions)/Market Development . The second ‘Exploitation’ component is designed to motivate continual scrutiny of the programme for potential operational applications, in the belief that an operational use can lie at the end of most techniques. THE MANAGERIAL

CHALLENGE

The ESA budget for Earth Observation will be decreasing significantly and all means to gain in efficiency of delivery of space systems must be investigated. Simple theo-

SmallSatellite. for Earth Observation

ries abound. Some are even true. Smaller missions mean smaller teams, shorter lines of communication, more multiplexing of individuals. More individuals will carry responsibility for a system element from design, through development and implementation to operations. This is not new; it was how the first space engineering teams worked; small-sat producers still know it well, as do many working in an university environment. Paper work should and can safely be reduced with short communication lines and built-in knowledge of system history. In myriad ways, however, risk can rise. One needs to monitor carefully the true situation and also have a clear idea of how much risk is acceptable. Scientists may have to change also. Engineers usually cannot accept both a firm financial limit and absolute science The concept of targeting requirements. needs to be used of meeting a federated set within some overall of requirements bound. Here scientist and engineer trade their capabilities and mission costs are not driven by the need to meet an isolated requirement. A similar approach needs to be adopted in developing operational systems, but here the targeting must guarantee the worth and reliability of the final products for service use. There are subtler financial questions, also associated with risk. More responsibility will have to be devolved from ESA to industrial contractors and there is more pressure for use of simple mechanisms, for example, fixed price contracts. How far has industry the financial resource to underwrite the commitments that could occur in a fixed price approach when the unexpected occurs? The proponents of smallsats have largely been small companies, research laboratories or even universities, organisation with small capital resources.

59

Moreover, there is the challenge to the small-sat proponents that the big hardware manufacturers have however been changing themselves, driven particularly by the need for telecommunications constellations. Here economies of scale can be achieved through a production line, an aspect of cheap production where a large company has a head start. CONCLUSIONS The major aims of the new programme, the ESA Living Planet programme, are: cheaper, more focused missions a user-driven approach through ‘improved communication with scientists and service users. coordination of a common European Earth Observation Strategy through partnership between ESA, the European Commission, Eumetsat and other European entities, and coordination with national programmes coordination and cooperation on a global scale through strategic cooperation with, for example, NASA and NASDA, and active coordination, for example, in the frame of the Committee on Earth Observation Satellites (CEOS) a partnership approach for applications missions through partnership mechanisms and co-funding schemes with other public bodies and industry new modes of dialogue with industry, to stimulate a user-driven, cost-effective and entrepreneurial European industry that is competitive in global markets higher effectiveness of the Agency and its delegate bodies in the decisionmaking process and in implementation. stable financial planning

60 l

Smdl Satellites Jbr Eurth Observation

flexibility, e.g. the possibility for extension of satellite operations without requesting a new supplementary budget

0 inherent incentives for cost savings within the individual programme elements l

continuity, e.g. for long-term archiving of ESA mission data

l

a long-term plan against which industry can plan strategically

l

ease of setting up cooperative with other agencies.

missions

Whether all aims are achieved is going to test the Agency, industry, the scientific and user community. One looks forward to the future with interest.