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The future is ours: Foreseeing, managing and creating the future
Pergamon
BOOK
future
Burrows
The Future is Ours: Foreseeing, Managing and Creating the Future Graham May London, Adamantine Press, lYY6, 253 pages From primitive times there has always been speculation about the future. More recently attempts have been made by governments and business sectors to forecast economic situations. As these are too narrow attempts are being made to merge these forecasts with social issues. The most successful recent development in the business sector is combining many forecasting methods to write a variety of scenarios which are constantly reviewed. At the same time there is an emerging profession of futurists. Many of these are academics and although this work has great value it tends to be read only by other academics. There is another class of futurist of which the Tofflers are the best example. These forecasts are written in a hyped up style which is very readable. The result is that these books have been widely read and have had a major influence. The problem with this approach is that it makes the major problems facing us much more simple than they really are. All the problems facing us on this planet are major and can only be solved by long term solutions. Thus we need more guidance about how to study the future. This is a major gap in the literature. However this gap has now been filled by Graham May with his book on how, to study
Brian
Furuwc. Vol. 29, No. 2, pp. 191-192, 1997 h> Elsevler Science Ltd. Printed in Great Britain 00 I h-3287/97 $17.00 + 0.00
REVIEW
Readable Brian
PublIshed
Burrows
may
IX,
conlacted at
Futures
matlon Associates, 30 Stone tiill. Two Mile Milton Keynes MKH 8LR, LK ~Tel: -43 Sh98921.
IntorAsh, 1908
methods to create a sustainable future. Therefore this book should appeal to academics, futurists, the business sector, governments and the wider public. In Part One a study is made of current methods used for forecasting future developments. As the author points out, both the business sector and the government spend a great deal of time and money on forecasting, often with poor results. The question asked is: why do we do it? And the answer is that if we are to improve and safeguard our future then we have no choice. What is needed is the development of more effective methods, but so far there is no academic basis for futures studies. An understanding of history is vital for current understanding, and future projections, and Graham May makes the point that history is made, not given. In Part Two ways of thinking about the future and methods for foreseeing the future are described. These projections can influence the future as those which people wish to happen will have greater chance of happening than those which are not so well received. The methods described are prediction, extrapolation, analytical forecasting, speculation and judgemental forecasting. All these methods are interrelated and only by a holistic management approach can they be made more effective. How to do this is explored in the next chapter which deals with managing, planning and creating the future. We live in an age of malor dilemmas where we need more local control over our lives and at the same time need to make dec-isions at an international level. The many methods described are scanning, impact-assessment, cost-benefit analysis, risk-assessment antl role playing. In my view these can form the basis for writing alternative scenarios which need to be modified on a
191
Book
review
continuous basis in order to predict unforeseen developments. Thus they should be seen as the building blocks for scenario writing. One of the best methods for predicting change is to study weak signals. These will either disremain constant for a period or appear, become stronger. When the latter happens it could have a major influence on the future. In Part Three the author studies the future as a paradox. As already stated we live in an age of growing dilemmas which makes forecasting more difficult but more necessary. The main paradox facing us is the centralisation of local authority and a failure to take effective international decisions. Nine paradoxes of mature economies are identified and described. These are intelligence, work, productivity, time, riches, organisations, ageing population, individualism and justice. Further contemporary paradoxes are described such as the use of technology, information, and methods to improve education. There is also the problem of cities with contrasting life styles. In some cities the gap between rich and poor is growing wider which creates an unstable situation. Finally how to implement change to be successful is described. It is concluded that the future will always be a paradox, and we have the knowledge but need the will to make certain that the future is ours. It is clear that futurists must
192
establish a hierarchy of decision making which provides people with local control over their lives, leading to international decisions which will develop sustainable planet management systems. This readable book advances studies of the future. It was written as a basis for a course on futures studies and this is now established at Leeds Metropolitan University. This is an important development and could at last create an academic basis in the UK for creating a sustainable future. Graham May has also been the key instigator in the revival of ‘The UK Futures Group’ which meets on a regular basis in London. One of the first futurists who could provide valuable information for future studies was H.G. Wells and he has been described as the first futurist. Graham May quotes from a paper by Wells advocating the setting up of professors of foresight in universities back in 1932. Most of the futures work of Wells is out of print but Adamantine Press has re-printed World Brain and is in the process of re-printing The Open Conspiracy. Therefore Graham May in setting up a basis for studying the future is making the views of Wells become a reality. Contributers to this journal are developing an academic basis for future studies but this book will assist futurists to present their message to a wider audience.
BOOK
future
Burrows
The Future is Ours: Foreseeing, Managing and Creating the Future Graham May London, Adamantine Press, lYY6, 253 pages From primitive times there has always been speculation about the future. More recently attempts have been made by governments and business sectors to forecast economic situations. As these are too narrow attempts are being made to merge these forecasts with social issues. The most successful recent development in the business sector is combining many forecasting methods to write a variety of scenarios which are constantly reviewed. At the same time there is an emerging profession of futurists. Many of these are academics and although this work has great value it tends to be read only by other academics. There is another class of futurist of which the Tofflers are the best example. These forecasts are written in a hyped up style which is very readable. The result is that these books have been widely read and have had a major influence. The problem with this approach is that it makes the major problems facing us much more simple than they really are. All the problems facing us on this planet are major and can only be solved by long term solutions. Thus we need more guidance about how to study the future. This is a major gap in the literature. However this gap has now been filled by Graham May with his book on how, to study
Brian
Furuwc. Vol. 29, No. 2, pp. 191-192, 1997 h> Elsevler Science Ltd. Printed in Great Britain 00 I h-3287/97 $17.00 + 0.00
REVIEW
Readable Brian
PublIshed
Burrows
may
IX,
conlacted at
Futures
matlon Associates, 30 Stone tiill. Two Mile Milton Keynes MKH 8LR, LK ~Tel: -43 Sh98921.
IntorAsh, 1908
methods to create a sustainable future. Therefore this book should appeal to academics, futurists, the business sector, governments and the wider public. In Part One a study is made of current methods used for forecasting future developments. As the author points out, both the business sector and the government spend a great deal of time and money on forecasting, often with poor results. The question asked is: why do we do it? And the answer is that if we are to improve and safeguard our future then we have no choice. What is needed is the development of more effective methods, but so far there is no academic basis for futures studies. An understanding of history is vital for current understanding, and future projections, and Graham May makes the point that history is made, not given. In Part Two ways of thinking about the future and methods for foreseeing the future are described. These projections can influence the future as those which people wish to happen will have greater chance of happening than those which are not so well received. The methods described are prediction, extrapolation, analytical forecasting, speculation and judgemental forecasting. All these methods are interrelated and only by a holistic management approach can they be made more effective. How to do this is explored in the next chapter which deals with managing, planning and creating the future. We live in an age of malor dilemmas where we need more local control over our lives and at the same time need to make dec-isions at an international level. The many methods described are scanning, impact-assessment, cost-benefit analysis, risk-assessment antl role playing. In my view these can form the basis for writing alternative scenarios which need to be modified on a
191
Book
review
continuous basis in order to predict unforeseen developments. Thus they should be seen as the building blocks for scenario writing. One of the best methods for predicting change is to study weak signals. These will either disremain constant for a period or appear, become stronger. When the latter happens it could have a major influence on the future. In Part Three the author studies the future as a paradox. As already stated we live in an age of growing dilemmas which makes forecasting more difficult but more necessary. The main paradox facing us is the centralisation of local authority and a failure to take effective international decisions. Nine paradoxes of mature economies are identified and described. These are intelligence, work, productivity, time, riches, organisations, ageing population, individualism and justice. Further contemporary paradoxes are described such as the use of technology, information, and methods to improve education. There is also the problem of cities with contrasting life styles. In some cities the gap between rich and poor is growing wider which creates an unstable situation. Finally how to implement change to be successful is described. It is concluded that the future will always be a paradox, and we have the knowledge but need the will to make certain that the future is ours. It is clear that futurists must
192
establish a hierarchy of decision making which provides people with local control over their lives, leading to international decisions which will develop sustainable planet management systems. This readable book advances studies of the future. It was written as a basis for a course on futures studies and this is now established at Leeds Metropolitan University. This is an important development and could at last create an academic basis in the UK for creating a sustainable future. Graham May has also been the key instigator in the revival of ‘The UK Futures Group’ which meets on a regular basis in London. One of the first futurists who could provide valuable information for future studies was H.G. Wells and he has been described as the first futurist. Graham May quotes from a paper by Wells advocating the setting up of professors of foresight in universities back in 1932. Most of the futures work of Wells is out of print but Adamantine Press has re-printed World Brain and is in the process of re-printing The Open Conspiracy. Therefore Graham May in setting up a basis for studying the future is making the views of Wells become a reality. Contributers to this journal are developing an academic basis for future studies but this book will assist futurists to present their message to a wider audience.