The impact of town centre shopping schemes in Britain: Their impact on taditional retail environments

The Impact of Town Centre Shopping Schemes in Britain: Their Impact

on Traditional

Retail

Environments

D. J. BENNISON and R. L. DAVIES Department of Geography, University of Newcastle upon Tyne

Acknowledgements

7 9

Part i: The National Context 1.

Redevelopment and Policies of Retail Concentration 1.1. The Background to Planning Philosophies 1.2. The Record ofGrowth in New Schemes 1.2. I. Schemes built since 1945 1.2.2. Regional var~a?~ons 2.3. The ~evelapme~t Process 1.4. Co~~~us~a~

2.

Characteristics of Town-centre Shopping Schemes 2.1. Aggregate Profiles 2.1.1. Age 2.1.2. size 2.1.3. Form 2.1.4. Developer 2.1.5. Ftmctions 2.1.6. Layout 2.1.7. Building materials 2.1.8. Services 2.1.9. Transport 2. I. 10. Location 2.1. f 1. Cammere~a~ success 2.2. T~pa~agies of Centres 2.3. Con&&m

24 24 25 25 28 28 28 29 29 30 30 31 31 32 36

3.

The Impact of Town-centre Shopping Schemes 3.1. Economic Effects 3. I. 1. Retail displacements and re-locutions 3.1.2. Shifs in patters of trade 3

37 39 39 41

4

Progress in ~~a~~~~g

3.3,

Environmental Effects 3.2. I. Visual intrusiveness 3.2.2. Blight and congestion Socia/ Effects

3.4.

3.3. I. The growth af manupo~v pouters The role qf‘ rhe Local Authvri~.~ 3.3.2. Can~~Ms~~n

3.2.

43 43 45 46 46 47 48

Part II: A Case Study of the North East

49

4.

49 49 51 53 54 55 57 61

Redevelopment in Tyne and Wear 4.1. The Traditional Retail Environment 4.2. The New Shopping Centres 4.2. I. Gares~ea~s Trinity Sh~~~~~g Ce~tre S~~der~a~~s Market Square Precinct 5.2. I.

4.3. 4.4. 5.

4.2.3. Newcosfle’s Efdan Square Shopping Centre E/don Square in a Plan Context Conclusion

LocaI Impact of the EIdon Square Shopping S. 1. The Srrrve>, Mfthods 5. I. i. Pedesrriffn counfs 5 1.2. Consumer questionnaires 5.1.3. Land use inventories

5.1.4. 5.2.

5.3.

5.4.

5.5.

6.

Centre

Retailer questionnaires

The Evidence qf Change 5.2.1. Movemenr and circulatiori Srore paOwnage and expenditure 5.2.2. 5.7.3. Land use charge 5.2.4. Business ~erfarma~~e The Main Trading Effects 5.3.1. The short-term effects 5.3.2. The bnger-term effects Environmental and Social Effects considerations 5.4. f. Environmental X4.2. Sociaf ca~ls~derat~ans Can~~~s~a~

Regional Impact of the Eldon Square 6.1. The Survey Methods 6.1. I. Shoppkg model inpufs 6. I. 2. Consumer survqvs

6.1,3. 5.I.C

Land use inventories Reraifer quest~anna~res

Shopping

62 62 63 63 64 64 64 65 67 70 73 77

77 78 79 79 80 81

Centre

83 83 84 85 85 5%

The Impact

4.2.

6.3.

6.4. 7.

The Evidence of Change 6.2.1. The simulated impact 6.2.2. The trade area 6.2.3. Land use change 6.2.4. Business performance The Main Trading Effects 6.3.1. Trade affected 6.3.2. Centres affected Conclusion

Summary and 7.1. Chapter 7.2. Chapter 7.3. Chapter 7.4. Chapter 7.5. Chapter 7.6. Chapter

References

of Town Centre Shopping

Conclusions I 2 3 4 5 6

Schemes

in Britain

5 86 87 87 93 94 94 95 95 96 97 97 98 98 99 100 100 103

Acknowledgements The work reported in this monograph has extended over a Cyear period and there are therefore numerous people who have given us invaluable advice and support. To abbreviate the listing but not the sense of gratitude we will group them in the following way: all those members of the public, retailers and planning officers who assisted in the surveys; the student help drawn upon; Adrian Smith and Brian Holdsworth (Newcastle City Planning Department), Gordon Allanson (Eldon Square Centre Manager), Russell Schiller (Hillier Parker), Alan Stephens (Tyne and Wear Country Planning Department), Phil Bradley and Stan Openshaw (Newcastle University) and Mel Marcus (formerly Reading University) for their specialist advice; Doreen Morrison, John Knipe and Eric Quenet (all of the Geography Department, Newcastle University) for their technical support; and Val Yde for coping with the typing and numerous other demands. We also gratefully acknowledge the financial support of the Social Science Research Council over the the 4-year period.

7

This monograph is concerned with the development of self-contained shopping centres in Britain in recent years and the impact they have had on traditional retail environments. The record of events provides a rather remarkable story from the standpoint that, compared to the introduction of innovations in other land use activities, the new schemes have proliferated around the country with relatively little academic scrutiny or public debate. There seems to have been a general acceptance of the virtues they bring, in terms of their convenience, efficiency and safety for shopping, and a benign resignation to some of their adverse side effects, such as their visual intrusiveness, trading shifts and pre-emption of small business sites. At certain periods in the past there has been widespread publicity given to individual schemes, as with the opening of the Coventry precinct, the development of the Arndale covered malls and the creation of the latest New Towns’ town centre scheme at Milton Keynes, but by and large the media reporting has been favourably disposed towards them. This is in marked contrast to the discussions held over the development of motorways, housing redevelopment and office growth. Even within the planning and related professional fields, the attention given to shopping centresper se has been small compared to the furore that once raged over superstores and hypermarkets. Part of the explanation for this acquiescence to the large amount of development that has taken place lies in the locational settings to which they have been guided. Strict local and central government constraints over their penetration of outlying, and especially greenfield sites, have meant that the majority of them have been built in existing town or city centres. Integrated with the traditional hub of shopping activity and serving a wide cross-section of the population, they have created less of a visible and thus detrimental shock to the established retail system than might otherwise have been anticipated. Part of the reason lies too in the fact that most of the schemes have been a resounding commercial success, suggesting that they are in tune with local consumer demands and the changes which have been occurring in shopping behaviour. Where so-called ‘white elephants’ exist, they are generally found in peripheral locations or areas that have suffered from other poor redevelopment projects. There are no Centre Points, Lakeland motorways or Lambeth tower flats in the shopping centre field. Only perhaps in the unsuccessful attempts to provide new schemes in redevelopment proposals for Covent Garden and Piccadilly in London have shopping centres been focal points of national controversy. This monograph is not intended as an alternative, critical interpretation of the 9

10

Ff ogf ess in P~%nning

deficiencies or disadvantages that have resulted from the new schemes. On the contrary, our purpose is simply one of providing a more factual account of what has taken place in the recent history of development than has hitherto been given. The study seeks to extend the basic stock of knowledge about new shopping centres and in particular to improve the general understanding of what happens to surrounding areas when a new scheme enters the retail environment. Our concern is exclusively with those developments that have occupied traditional town or city centre locations. The monograph is organised into two distinct but complementary parts. The first deals with the development of new shopping centres at the national level and includes chapters on the background planning influences that have been at work, the physical and economic characteristics of the schemes themselves and the general nature of their effects. The research for this has mainly been based on an inventory of all larger developments compiled initially by Hillier Parker, and a comprehensive survey with planning officers in those Districts within which the schemes are found. The second part parallels the record of events as they have occurred in the single case-study setting of Tyne and Wear. In particular, emphasis is given here to the repercussions that have followed the opening of the Eldon Square Regional Shopping Ccntre in Newcastle upon Tyne. The impact of this scheme is considered both locally and regionally, but primarily in terms of the trading effects which have been felt. The research for this stems from a number of consumer, retailer and land use surveys that have been conducted over a Cyear period and enable comparisons to be made of conditions ‘before and after’ the scheme was opened. The de~nition adopted for what constitutes a self-contained shopping centre is a purpose-built facility either in a precinct or mall form which contains several retail units and has been developed as a distinct complex from surrounding shopping streets. It does not include large store expansions along traditional high streets or those sections of streets which may have been redeveloped. For practical purposes, the study refers only to self-contained shopping centres built since the last war and over 50,000 square feet or more in size.

PART

I: THE

CHAPTER

NATIONAL

CONTEXT

1

Redevelopment

and Policies of Retail Concentration

The accommodation of new retailing facilities in Britain has been markedly different from that in most other advanced western economies. Since the last world war, when the self-contained shopping centre has become the main medium for organising and developing new shops, Britain has sought to graft the new pressures for growth onto a traditional pattern of shopping locations. In particular, through the exercise of strong planning constraints, she has sought to guide most new resources to existing town and city central areas. In contrast, in North America, continental Western Europe and Australia, shopping centres have been allowed to be built in a much greater variety of locations, following especially the outward spread of the surburban population. While there have been some trends in recent years to a diminution of these differences, the prevailing legacy of the present retail environment shows Britain to have a highly concentrated pattern of new shopping centres while the other countries exhibit a much more decentralised form. This chapter examines the background planning philosophies that have led to the pattern of concentration in Britain, the growth in new shopping centres that has occurred and the principal agencies involved in the development process.

1.1. THE

BACKGROUND

TO PLANNING

PHILOSOPHIES

Retail planning has rarely been treated as a separate function within the corporate body of town and country planning practices, hence the controls exerted over new shopping centres need to be considered in the wider context of planning as a whole. Within this broad framework, however, there have been two specific influences at work. First, there has been the evolution of town centre plans with their emphasis on redevelopment and a segregation of land uses; second, there have been a series of adhac policy directives, largely issued through Development Controi Policy Notes from central government, indicating how local authorities should react to new retailing pressures in suburban areas. To a large extent, the two sets of influences have followed consecutively on each other, the former dominating retail planning policies in the first half of the post-war years, the latter those policies applied since about 1965. 1. The machinery for the preparation of town centre plans was established by the 1947 Town and Country Planning Act which gave local authorities the power to obtain land through compulsory purchase orders and designate certain localities as 11

12

Progress

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‘comprehensive development areas’. A document issued in the same year under the title The Redevelopment of Central Areas provided a set of guidelines on how this new power could be effected in town centres, advocating that the mix of traditional land uses should be replaced by well-defined, specialist zones for shopping, offices, education etc. The document was timely in the sense that a number of town centres had been severely bombed during the war, most notably in Coventry. Hull and Plymouth, and local planning departments here had already turned their thoughts to the form of their reconstruction. It was also somewhat optimistic from the viewpoint that most local authorities were more preoccupied with ther housing programmes and could not focus their attention on commercial redevelopment for almost another decade. The formulation of town centre redevelopment plans increased considerably from about the mid-1950s however, largely as a result of four new factors at work. These were: the abolition in 1954 of the war-time system of Iicences on new building; the increasing amount of private finance that became available and a marked shift in investment from residential to commercial property; rising personal incomes and their reflection in a growing demand for new retail floorspace; and lastly, the growth in vehicular traffic which was causing localised problems of congestion. Initially. the new building that was undertaken in relation to the plans represented piecemeal replacements of existing stock, particularly speculative office blocks, and most notably in London. By the beginning of the 196Os, however, the accumulation of conflicting pressures on space, together with a growing sophistication in planning theory and practice. had led to the instigation of more comprehensive programmes of development in which retail provision became an increasingly more important part. The main ideal in the accommodation of new growth at this time was the precinct, a concept that had been successfully applied in Coventry, in several of the New Towns and many of the new neighbourhood shopping centres that larger local authorities had by now built. The precinct, of course, could be adapted not only to new shopping provisions but also to new cultural, office and housing facilities. L.inked to this notton was the desire to pedestrianise many existing streets so that the core area of most intensive commercial activity in the town or city centre could be segregated to pedestrian use only. The new proposals for comprehensive redevelopment schemes gained such momentum and prestige during the early 1960s that Marriott (1967) was prompted to compare the enthusiasm of local authorities with the rivalries of Victorian town councils in building bigger and better town halls and public buildings. Apart from the enhancement of a town’s image that was seen to result from a major redevelopment programme, potential benefits were also perceived in terms of financial returns through rates and ground rents, better traffic circulation and a more congenral environment for town centre workers. Central government reflected the new wave of fervour with the joint publication by the Ministries of Housing and Local Government and Transport in 1962 of Town Centres: Approach to Renewal. This was essentially a series of technical manuals on how to proceed with ‘town centre development plans’ and both updated and provided more details than the earlier advisory document. 2. By the middle of the 1960s. however, a marked change emerged in the nature of shopping provisions envisaged in these plans as private developers pushed for the

The Impact of Town Centre Shopping Schemes in 8rjtain

13

introduction of new covered centres, similar to those that had by now been widely built in suburban areas in North America. The new concept in many ways combined the idea of the precinct with the pedestrianised street but with the important new addition of providing weather protection and, in some cases, controlled temperatures. In its American form, it was also oriented to a mainly car-borne shopping clientele, thereby including extensive car parking facilities. Private developers in Britain initially hoped to build the new centres in ‘out-of-town’ locations but were resisted through the development control process by local authorities, concerned about their potential competitive effects on existing resources, especially those still on the drawing board in redevelopment plans. What had happened, in a sense, was the old master blueprint for commercial renovation, shaped in the 2 years following the war but not widely implemented in physical change until 20 years after, was now under threat of being outdated in its ability to meet contemporary needs. Shortly after the first test-cases for the development of ‘out-of-town’ shopping centres (particularly the Haydock Park proposal in 1963) came pressures to build outlying superstores and hypermarkets. The issue of whether Britain should follow a continued pattern of concentrated retail growth or allow for more decentralisation was opened to a wider debate. Concurrently, a number of changes in basic planning attitudes and assumptions were taking place, with people both inside the profession and outside challenging the rigidity of the old development plans and seeking a more incremental approach that would involve more public participation. The broad discussion that ensued over the role of the planning process ultimately led to the 1972 Town and Country Planning Act that replaced development plans by the two-tier system of structure plans and local plans. While immense changes were made in the way plans were prepared, the practical repercussions on policies towards the accommodation of new retailing resources’were quite small. Local authority planning departments remained largely hostile to new large surburban shopping proposals, except where these could provide the basis to new outlying district centres in areas of substantial population growth. The reasons most usually proferred are that significant decentralisation, particularly of durable-goods trade, would lead to the decline of the trading and environmental health of the central area, as has occurred in many American cities; it would intrude upon the tranquility of rural areas and create pressures on local roads; it would tend to promote two distinct social systems in shopping, with the new suburban facilities catering to a middle-class population, while a depleted set of resources in the town centre would be left to the inner city’s elderly and poor. A further consideration is that, while considerable changes in the nature of plan preparation were made, there was no fundamental shift in the basic design principles used in the formulation of retail planning policies. Local planning departments continued to adhere to a hierarchical framework of shopping centres, with new accommodation permitted only if it seemed logically to lit into this structure. Local authorities were encouraged in their stand by Development Control Policy Note 13, issued by the Department of the Environment in 1972. This required that all applications for new developments over 50,000 square feet in size be sent to the DOE for scrutiny. Generally-speaking, most applications for outlying schemes that went to public enquiries were refused by the public inspectors. The effect of this collective body

14

Progress

in Planning

of professional opinion was therefore to force private developers to introduce most of the new covered shopping centres into existing central areas. A vast expansion in the number of these took place in the 1970s with an increasing trend for bigger and more sophisticated schemes to be built towards the end of the decade. This in itself required a new coltaborative spirit between the developers and local authorities, with the latter in a better position to acquire land and also able to assist in the acquisition of financial support. The second half of the 197Os, however, saw a marked shift in the pre-occupations of planners, away from the problems of the central area and towards the needs of the inner city and outlying housing areas. A number of second and even third generation town centre plans had been formulated, now under the heading of local ‘district’ or ‘action area’ plans, but these largely followed the new spirit of incremental planning with relatively few grandiose proposals contained within them. The decline in the birth rate and its implication for future spending, the experience of a period of massive inflation, the feehng that much redevelopment and modernisation of shopping facilities had by now been accomplished, and a new mood to give greater priority to conservation, all combined to suggest that a more cautionary planning approach to central area provisions should be adopted. At the same time, a revision to Development Control Policy Note 13, issued in 1977, indicated a more flexible attitude should be taken in future towards suburban shopping proposals. The 1980s are therefore likely to see a more modest programme of town centre reconstruction with most new shopping centres constituting small additions to the existing stock and often being developed in smaller settlements in the national hierarchy.

1.2.

THE

RECORD

OF

GROWTH

IN NEW

SCHEMES

The two main periods of town centre shopping development that we have distinguished, from 1950 to 1965 and from 1965 to 1980, may be viewed in retrospect as two eras in a continuing process of evotution which, while not discrete, exhibit marked differences in types of centres that were built. At the same time, the two eras are distinct in terms of the number of new schemes constructed and the part played by local authorities in their development. Generally speaking, the first era of precinct development was fostered by local authorities themselves, but the amount of development was small and radical changes to the retail environment of individual towns and cities were few. The second era, conspicuous for the introduction of covered centres but with many precinct and also partially covered mall developments still being established, witnessed a much greater scale of activity, largely initiated by private developers and involving a much more substantial impact on the central area townscape. Within each of these eras, further distinctive stages can be recognised which accord generally to the introduction of new sizes and locational settings for the shopping centres as shown in Fig 1.1. The specific years which are identified here are somewhat arbitrary, but there appears to have been a succession of new kinds of developments at regular intervals in time. The progression of change is portrayed in a circular fashion

The impact of Town Centre Shopping Schemes in Britain

15

c. 1950

Large

Comprehensiv econstruction

Developments

EXAMPLES

Town Centre Accretions FIG. 1.1.

c

I 1965

evitalised Centres

District

Distinctive stages in the evolution of town centre shopping schemes.

not to imply any cyclical process at work but rather to suggest that by the end of the second era there seemed to have been a return to the basic principles influencing environmental reconstruction at the beginning of the first. New covered ihopping centres, that originally penetrated the central area as relatively small accretions to the high street, then became much larger core components of shopping in the form of regional shopping centres, have most recently become the focal point of comprehensive redevelopment schemes involving extensive local authority collaboration. The new era that is about to begin may once again see a diminution of local authority involvement in shaping the future form of the central area, although planning itself is now too entrenched for much change in direction to take place.

1.2.1.

Schemes Built Since 1965

Our central concern in this monograph is with the impact of those town centre shopping schemes built since 1965. The most complete record of their development to date is an inventory of all new retail floorspace provision, of more than 50,000 square feet, compiled by Hillier Parker, May and Rowden and partly in conjunction with ourselves (Hillier Parker, 1979). This shows that of 387 new shopping schemes established in the last 15 years, 315 were located in town or city centres. The published inventory provides information on the name, size, developer and type of scheme (whether open, partially covered or fully enclosed) and additional data collected on the age of schemes have been made available for this report. This data is summarised in Figs 1.2 and 1.3 and Table 1.1.

16

Progress

in Planning TABLE 1.1.

Ravenseft Town &City Local Authorittes’ New Towns EPC Hammerson Laing Norwich Umon Land & House Grosvenor MEPC Taylor Woodrow Costain Neale House Samuel St. Martm Total Source: Hillier Parker, 1979 ‘Schemes where L.A. is sole developer.

Principal developers of town centre shopping schemes

No. of schemes

% Total schemes

% Total floorspace

Av. size of schemes

34 33 20 18 18 14 13 10 7 6 6 6 5 5 5 5 205

10.8 10.5 6.3 5.7 5.7 4.4 4.1 32 2.2 19 I .9 I.9 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.6 65

10.6 16.1 6.6 71 35 5.4 46 2.7 18 32 1.5 1.6 1.3 1.9 15 1.7 71 I

166,647 261.030 176,600 204,000 102,778 207,714 190,308 144,400 140,429 288,000 130,000 145,333 138,200 204,000 159,000 185,200 169,720

Joint ventures

Open

FIG. 1.2.

are aggregated

under the name of the private developer.

Precincts

Annual numbers of openings of town centre shopping schemes, 1965-1978 (N.B. phased openings are not accounted for; schemes are aggregated according to the first date of opening).

The Impact

FIG.

1.3.

of Town Centre Shopping

Schemes

in Britain

17

Accumulative gross floorspace in town centre shopping scheme, 19651978 (N.B. phased openings are not accounted for; schemes are aggregated according to the first date of opening).

Figure 1.2 indicates that, after a slightly hesitant beginning, the number of new schemes opening yearly grew rapidly through the late 1960s and early 1970s reaching a peak in 1975 when 35 new centres were established. The 3 years since then saw a marked decline in completions to only ten in 1977, but in 1978, the last year for which complete data are available, there was a further increase. Concurrent with the prevailing trend of growth has been a general increase in the proportion of schemes which are either partially covered or fully enclosed, reaching 42% of all schemes by the end of the era and 60% of those opened in 1978. Figure 1.3 portrays the accumulation in gross floorspace over the same period, when there was a rise from just over 1 million square feet of new floorspace in use in 1965 to more than 53 million in 1978. The greatest absolute increases in floorspace occurred between 1974 and 1976 when more than 14 million square feet were added to the existing stock. The recent decline in number of completions is reflected in a slight flattening of the graph so that it displays in an embryonic form the appearance of the classic elongated S-shaped curve of innovation diffusion models. Research into the form of the IPP 14,1~-H

18

Progress in Planning

graph, however, failed to produce any satisfactory equations that might be useful for predictive purposes into the middle or late 1980s. A cubic regression equation performed well in describing the past pattern of growth, but after suggesting an increase in the number of schemes to 344 by 1982, it thereafter indicated an actual reduction would take place, which is clearly not in accord with plans already in the pipeline. TabIe 1.1 shows the principal developers that have been involved in the establishment of town centre shopping schemes. Altogether 94 separate companies or agencies have been responsible for the 315 schemes so far opened, most of them concerned with single developments. Sixteen major developers, however, account for 65% of all schemes and 71% of total floorspace, with the local authorities and New Town development corporations lying in third and fourth place behind Ravenseft and Town and City Properties Company. Town and City Properties are best known for the numerous covered Arndale shopping centres found throughout the country; Ravenseft have developed proportionately more open schemes.

1.2.2.

Regional Variations

Considerable differences may be discerned in the spatial spread of development between the regions of Britain as is shown in Fig. 1.4. Prior to 1967 most new schemes were built in or around Greater London, with the rest widely scattered in towns of varying size and location, from Birmingham and Leeds to Bangor, Ayr and Jarrow. In the first years of more rapid development, from 1967 to 1970, the greatest number were constructed in the North, North West and West Midlands where 57%, 40% and 48% respectively of current schemes had been opened by the end of this period. Between 1971 and 1974, further development took place in these regions but substantial new openings occurred in most of the conurbations around the country except in Scotland where there was more limited expansion. By the last period, 1975 - 1978, a more diffuse pattern again took place and Scotland emerged with a much greater number of schemes. It is difficult to find evidence within these periods for any distinct hierarchicaf or spatial diffusion process at work. The early adoption of new schemes in the northern and western part of England is largely related to local environmental and political factors rather than population sizes and market conditions. Local authorities in these areas tended to be more receptive to new shopping centres partly as a means to providing a face-lift for their towns and cities and partly because they had a less wellendowed traditional resource in retailing to protect. More recent trends, however, particularly the pending development of smaller schemes in smaller towns and cities suggest that socio-economic circumstances have become increasingly more important. A similar complicated pattern of growth occurred with out-of-town shopping centres in North America, as has been shown by Cohen (1972) and Sheppard (1976). Regional differences also occur with respect to types and sizes of schemes introduced, in part a reflection of their date of opening but also related to wider influences. The earliest regions to develop schemes have the highest proportion of open centres (for example, 67% of schemes in the Northern Region are open and 64% in the West midlands), while those with more recent developments have lower proportions (48% in

The Impact of Town Centre chopping Schemes in Brjtai~ R

f)+-‘-?

1963-1966

il?

FIG. 1.4,

s”

z/

i967-‘Q70

Distribution af town centre shoppingschemesin Britain by date of opening.

19

20

Progress in Planning

the East Midlands and 48% in Scotland). East Anglia, however. is rather anomalous in this respect: although most schemes are post-1971 in date, 60% are open. This may be related to the small average size of schemes in the region (91,000 square feet compared to a national average of 169,000 square feet) and none are larger than 200,000 square feet). The largest average sizes of schemes are found in the North West (209,000 square feet), Northern Region (206,000 square feet) and Scotland (182,000 square feet). Comparison of the number and proportion of schemes and their floorspace provision with population sizes in each region (Table 1.2) indicates that in 1977, East Anglia, the South West and Wales remained those most relatively under-endowed with new shopping centres while the North, North West and West Midlands were still extremely well served. The most conspicuous feature, however, is that Greater London, when distinguished from the rest of the South East, IS particularly lacking in new floorspace provision despite the fact that the surrounding area has by this time caught up with the national average as a whole. The central part of London, especially, the zone with the highest concentration of retail sales In the country, has no schemes at ail which are comparable to those now found in the central area of virtually all other major cities in Britain: new schemes in Greater London being found in the traditional commercial foci of the individual boroughs. Special circumstances have acted to deter new shopping development m the central area of London, however, as they have in many other West European capitals, namely the extremely high land prices, the entrenchment of very large department stores and the large number of small, sprciahsed shops which are found (Schiller and Lambert, 1977). Many proposals for redevelopment have also foundered against strong local opposition from conservationist groups.

TABLE 1.2.

Regional statistics on town centre shopping schemes, 1977 (percentages in parentheses) Schemes ‘8 (9.51 56 (18.9) 20 (6.8) 9 (3.0) 19 (6.4) 40 (13.5) 22 (7.4) 46 (15.5) 21 (7.1) 10 (3.4) 25 (8.4) 296 f 100.0)

London Rest of South East South West East Anglia East Midlands West Midlands Yorks/Humberside North West North Wales Scotland Total

4,286,075 (8.4) 9.173.000 (18.1) 2,909,~0 (5.7) 837,000 (1 6) 3679,000 (7.2) 5825,000 (11.5) 4.665.000 (9.2) 9,348,OOO (18.4) 4.211.500 (8.3) I ,230,OOO (2.4) 4,619,OOO (9.1) 50.782.575 (100.0)

Source: Hilher Parker, British Shopping Developments, 1979 and Central Vol. 14. HMSO, 1979.

1.3.

THE

DEVELOPMENT

Population size

Gross tloorspace

Stattstical

6,970,OOO (12.8) 9.864.000 (18.2) 4.279.000 (7.9) i,827,000 (3.4) 3,747,OOO (6.9) 5,154,OOo (9.5) 4.876.000 (9.0) 6,519,OOO (12.0) 3.116,OOO (5.7) 2,768,OOO (5.1) 5,196,OOO (9.6) 54.3i5,~(1~.0)

Office, Re~~~na~~ta?istt~.~,

PROCESS

The rapid growth of self-contained distinctive, albeit complex, structure

shopping centres in the last 15 years has fed to a of decision-making in the business of development.

The lm~act of Town Centre ~h~~~jng Schemes in ~ritaj~

21

From an initiai point at which consumer demands for new retail floorspace can be recognised to the final stages of actually building a new scheme, there is an interplay of pressures for and against development which is summarised in Fig. 1.5. The relationships that are described here stem from the actions of four principal groups: the property development companies or other development agencies, retailers (principally the multiples), the local authority and local interest groups. Local interest groups and sometimes the local authority try to resist the introductio~of new schemes; the developers, multiple retailers and also the local authoritie~are normally the main advocates. The root cause for the demand for new retail floorspace provision is, of course, the growth in consumer disposable income and changes in expenditure patterns. Since the war, there has been a fairly continuous increase in purchasing power but most of this has been channelled into the acquisition of more specialised or durable goods, particularly during the last 15 years. The Unit for Retail Planning Information has

FIG. 1.5.

The town centre shopping scheme development process.

22

Progress

in Planning

shown that, at constant 197 1 prices, there was an average growth of only 0.1% per year in convenience goods sales over the period 1961 - 1977, compared to an annual increase of 2.9% on comparison goods (URPI, 1979). The demand for new retail facilities in town centre locations therefore mainly reflects this special trend towards greater outlays on material goods. Over the same period, however, there have been substantial changes in distribution and marketing methods which have particularly affected the convenience-goods sector: leading to the introduction of large supermarkets and superstores, most of which have been developed in suburban areas but a large number have also been sited in traditional town centres. Allied to these changes in consumption and retail techniques have been substantial changes in shopping behaviour, prompted by the growth in car ownership, female employment and advertising campaigns. These have both influenced and been a response to new forms of retail provision, particularly the development of the self-contained centre with its separate transport facilities, off-street service bays and pedestrian malls. The multiple retailers, particularly those specialising in durable or comparison goods, may be seen to be the first of the four main decision-making groups to create the demand for new retail floorspace in modern environmental conditions. The competition for high street sites has become so intense in recent years that alternative, but equally satisfactory locations, have become imperative. Purpose-built shopping centres not only realise these needs but also allow for more technological innovation in the design and organisation of individual shops. The local authority is not far behind in its concern to see improvements in the retail environment and will usually already have laid the basis to the accommodation of new centres through its long-term redevelopment plans. Its reaction to a specific proposal, however, may be ambivalent because of conflicting interests. On the one hand, it is charged with protecting the aspirations of existing commercial trades in the town centre; on the other hand, it will want to enhance the overall image and prestige of the area. At the same time there are sometimes personal interests at stake amongst council members. While these conflicts are typically resolved through the council chambers and political debate they are also worked out against the background of professional planning opinion and’advice. The Planning Department has Its own problems of reconciling conflicting land use claims and ensuring that an adequate balance between demand and supply for new shops is met. It, like the multiple retailers, however, usually recognises the desirability of concentrating new growth in self-contained developments, where potential traffic hazards can be avoided and both efficiency and safety can be achieved. It may also be able to realise some ‘planning gain’ whereby private developers, in return for planning permission, will provide some noncommercial facilities such as libraries, link roads and amenities. The developers and local interest groups are very active in the early stages of determining proposals for new shopping provisions, of course, but the day-to-day role of the former becomes more dominant once planning permission has been given for a new scheme to go ahead. The local interest groups, particularly conservationists, will seek to make design changes to the detailed nature of the scheme and will often be successful in this. The developers will set about the difficult tasks of arranging finance, often through pension funds and insurance companies, acquiring the site, often in conjunction with the local authority who can use its compulsory purchase powers,

The lm~act of Town Centre ~h~~~ing Schemes in 8r~tain

23

contracting architects and builders, and securing tenants for the scheme. This latter function has been extremely important to the relative success of failure of schemes and involves achieving a mix of complementary stores with one or two major magnets that will be the main generators of trade.

1.4, CONCLUSION

The British experience in shopping centre development is quite unique when compared to other countries in the western world primarly because 8 1% ofthoseself-containedschemes (larger than 50,000 square feet) which have been built in the last 5 years have been accommodated in existing town centres. A combination of circumstances has led to this experience, including the strong influence exerted by local and central government planning policies and the acquiescence of many multiple retail firms who have traditionally traded in these locations. It must be remembered that Britain, more than any other advanced economy, has for long had a rigid hierarchical organisation ofshoppingfacilities within its towns and cities and multiple retailers, particularly in the durable-goods sector, command a proportionately greater overall share of trade than they do even in North America. Both the planners and most multiple retailers have therefore sought to preserve this established spatial order and protect the trading health of the existing high street. The developers’ response has essentially been one of building adjuncts to the high street which, provided they do not intrude on histo~cally important or aesthetically valuable partsofthe central area, have found little resistance from local amenity and ~onse~ationist groups. If this pattern of concentration has led to some unsatisfactory aspects of convenience-goods shopping, it has nevertheless avoided the worst excesses of decentralisation found in most other countries. Indeed, the recent shifts in development policies within these other countries to a greater provision of in-town rather than out-of-town shopping provisions (Gruen, 1973; Davies, 1979) may well see the British restrictive stance being vindicated in the future.

CHAPTER

2

Characteristics

of Town-centre

Shopping

Schemes

While much is known about the broad development of town-centre shopping schemes in Britain, relatively little is known about their variable characteristics and perhaps more significantly the repercussions which they have had on the traditional retail environment. In order to provide more information about their attributes and effects, a postal questionnaire survey was conducted by the authors in late 1978 and early 1979 with all those District Planning Departments known to have schemes within their area. The questionnaire was directed to those schemes over 50,000 square feet of gross retail floorspace built since 1963, with the exception of those in the New Towns, except for the cases of Northampton and Preston (which, in a strict sense, forms part of the Central Lancashire New Town). The New Towns were generally omitted because their new shopping centres have either been established on greenfield sites or alternatively form part of a traditional shopping area that has received considerable stimulus from rapid surrounding population growth. The response rate to the survey was relatively satisfactory, to the extent that 140 of 170 planning departments approached collaborated in the exercise. After screenmg for seriously incomplete returns, data on 172 schemes were extracted. This represents 55% of the total number of town-centre shopping schemes enumerated by Hillier Parker, but most planning departments reported on their more distinctive self-contained shopping centres rather than including those which were more piece-meal assemblages of shops. There is some bias therefore in the data, giving more weight particularly to the larger schemes. A total of 44 questions were directed to three sets of concerns: the broad dimensions of a scheme (size, year of opening, number of shop units etc.); its design and locational features (mall layout, parking facilities, street frontage etc.); and its impact on the traditional town centre (such as effect on trade, change m land use etc.). The first two sets of information form the basis to this chapter: the third is incorporated into Chapter 3.

2.1.

AGGREGATE

PROFILES

A selection of the major characteristics of the surveyed schemes is given in Table 2.1 and various cross-tabulations are provided in Table 2.2. More detailed analysis together with statistics on individual schemes can be found in Davies and Bennison (1979). The most significant variables in the data presented are the age, size, form and developer of 24

The impact of Town Centre Shopping Schemes in Britain

25

schemes, for these have considerable influence on all the other features shown; but our discussion of these is deliberately limited here since they have already been considered in a wider context in Chapter 1. Proportionately more attention is given to aspects of design and location.

2.1.1. Age The survey data on annual openings of schemes accords well with the fuller records of the Hillier Parker inventory, with peaks occurring during 1970 and 1975. Both reflect in part on the fruition of central area plans prepared more than a decade earlier, but the later peak also marks a spate of activity associated with the property boom in the early 1970s. Data were collected in the survey on the date at which plans were first made to accommodate each shopping centre and the lag in development averaged 9 years. The plans for 62% of schemes were formulated between 1960 and 1965. Examples of some of the earliest shopping centres built in the survey period include: Corporation Square (1963) and the Bull Ring (1964) in Birmingham; the Queensmead in Farnborough (1963); the Merrion Centre, Leeds (1963); the St. George’s Centre, Preston (1964);‘and the Elephant and Castle Centre, Southwark (1965). Examples of some of the more recent schemes are: the Clydebank Regional Shopping Centre; the Wellgate Centre, Dundee; King’s Mall, Hammersmith; the Arndale Centre, Manchester; The Quadrant, Swansea; and the North Shields Centre - all mainly opened in 1978.

2.1.2. Size The increasing size of schemes over time ranged from an average of 197,000 square feet between 1963 and 1966 in the survey records to 239,000 square feet between 1975 and 1979. This contrasts with the lower figures in Hillier Parker inventory of 127,000 and 207,000. None of the very large schemes, those over 500,000 square feet and which are usually described as regional shopping centres, were opened prior to 197 1. Concurrent with the growth in floorspace size, however, there has been a reduction in average number of shop units found, from 70 to 49, but the average site area has shown relatively little change. The reduction in number of shop units has been compensated for by increasing sizes of individual units and proportionately less site area has been needed by the larger schemes as car parking and servicing bays have increasingly been accommodated underground or at roof-top rather than on adjacent land. The growth in overall floorspace size of schemes is itself partly a reflection of more major attractor stores being housed but there has also been some degree of competition between local authorities to build bigger and better shopping centres. At the same time, developers have found they can achieve considerable economies of scale in day-to-day running and maintenance costs.

TABLE 2.1.

Chara~te~sti~

of surveyed town-centre shopping schemes (percentages in parentheses)

1971-74 53 (31)

1975-79 (Feb) 48 (28)

1963-66 18(10)

1967-70 53(31)

Size (gross sq ft) N- 172

so-99,000

loo-199,000

60(35)

42 (24)

Form N= 169

Enclosed 54 (32)

Partly covered 69 (41)

Open 46 (27)

Developer N= 170

Private 96 (56)

L.A. 13(8)

Mtxed 61 (36)

With housing 54 (32)

With offices 117 (72)

With hotels

Single mall 56 (33)

Square/ rectangle 27(16)

Cross/ cruciform 43 (26)

Other 42 (25)

Building matenal N= 168

Brtck 71 (42)

Concrete 33 (20)

Glass 47 (28)

Other 17(10)

Servicing N= 172

Surface 89 (52)

Underground 41 (24)

Transport’ N= 170; 171; 170

With car park 150 (87)

Wtth bus station 37 (22)

Wnhout bus or car park 20(12)

Location* N= 171; 151; 170

Tradttionai centre 104 (61)

New locus 67 (39)

Haif street frontage 82 (54)

Trade success N=l34

Reached expectations 88 (66)

Exceeded expectations 28 (21)

Failed expectations 18 (13)

Age N=

172

Other functions’ N = 162;

Layout N=168

‘The percentages m these and do not sum to 100.

cases

refer

to the

proportion

of schemes

200-499,000 60 (35)

11(6)

> 500,000 )0(6)

Rec. centres 8 (5)

Rooftop 42 (24)

with

housing,

Frontage main st. 125 (73)

with

offices

etc.,

The Impact

TABLE

2.2

of Town Centre Shopping

Schemes

in Britain

27

Average (mean) characteristics of town-centre shopping schemes

Gr0S.S hOtSpaCe

(000s sq ft)

(f millions)

96 Borne by local authority

Number of shop units

No. nonretail units

No. of vacant units

Ground Plea

(acres)

cost

4% 1963-66 1967-70 1971-74 1975-19

197 154 214 239

6.6 7.1 6.9 5.6

29 2.9 6.0 9.6

2.5 18.6 13.8 26.8

79 55 53 49

77 5.1 3.5 19

29 27 23 5.7

Sne (sq. ft ) 50-99.000 loo-199,000 200-499,OOO > 500,000

69 139 316 655

3.0 6.9 9.1 11.4

2.2 4.4 6.2 36.2

6.2 28.3 21.6 47.8

32 45 77 110

2.7 3.3 5.4 56

2.2 37 3.7 76

Form Enclosed Partly covered Open

272 185 149

6.2 72 6.3

10.7 4.5 4.3

22.5 18.2 15.3

62 57 47

3.3. 46 40

50 3.3 1.9

Developer Prwate Local authority Mwed

149 282 264

4.9 11.1 8.1

3.5 9.0 8.1

05 93 0 29 9

48 74 63

41 3.7 3.8

34 3.2 3.6

All schemes

201

6.6

6.7

I8 5

55

4.0

3.4

parking spaces

Nearest other car park (yds)

Nearest other bus station

Distance to peak shopping

No. of shopping levels

TABLE

CSK

Oft&

floorspace (000s sq. ft.)

2.2 Cont.

Housing units

Age 50 41 35 40

14 18 68 2

690 474 654 695

140 170 189 133

376 344 555 313

229 101 121 89

15 14 15 14

SEX (sq. ft.) 50-99,000 IOO-199,000 200-499,000 > 500,OtM

20 21 73 45

13 21 33 139

301 528 869 1172

188 166 141 110

472 345 395 300

138 145 81 98

12 15 1.6 1.9

Form Enclosed Partly covered Open

49 39 35

22 28 31

798 566 485

158 179 140

346 429 440

131 63 178

1.6 14 13

Developer Prwate Local authonty Mwd

38 21 49

14 69 38

486 710 781

189 104 128

422 420 315

130 71 109

1.4 15 16

All schemes

41

28

614

161

389

118

1.4

1963-66 1967-70 1971-74 1975-79

28 2.1.3.

Progress

in P~~~njng

Form

The planning departments that responded to the questionnaire survey reported upon a much higher proportion of enclosed and partially covered centres compared to open precincts than was given in the Hillier Parker inventory. This suggests that the inventory contains a number of schemes that might only be loosely identified as self-contained shopping centres, many of which have grown up on an incremental basis and some of which constitute single large stores. Less than one third of the surveyed schemes were described as being open, the proportion having declined from 56% of all schemes in 1963-1966 to 15% in 1975-1979. There is therefore also a distinct size relationship, with more than 60% of all fully enclosed centres being more than 200,000 square feet in size. The main reasons for this trend appear to be the fact that fully enclosed centres convey the most modern image in shopping provisions and experience has shown that, despite their higher development costs, they tend to be more commercially successful. They not only hold considerable appeal to most consumers through their ail-weather protection and interior decor but also effectively ensnare them in an inward-looking environment where they cannot easily perceive competing attractions elsewhere and may be constrained to using the mall’s shops by the strategic siting of entry and exit points.

2.1.4.

Developer

The survey information provides a more detailed insight into the roIe of the local authority in the development process, particularly its increased participation over time and as schemes have become larger. While 78% of all schemes built between 1963 and 1966 were private developments, this share had declined to 40% between 1975 and 1979 when almost half of the new centres were joint ventures .between private companies and local authorities. Over the same period local authority contributions towards the cost of schemes increased from 2.5% to 26.8%. The cost of local authority and mixed partnership schemes has itself been considerably higher than that for private developments, partly because of higher land acquisition costs and partly because proportionately more of them are enclosed centres. Nearly all of the very largest enclosed shopping centres, such as the Eldon Square Centre in Newcastle, the Arndale in Manchester and the Victoria Cent& in Nottingham, have involved a significant local authority input, particularly in the acquisition of land. Approximately one-third of local authority and mixed partnership schemes occupy sites of more than 10 acres compared to only 12% of private developments.

2.1 S. Functions Although most town-centre shopping schemes have been conceived as part of a wider programme of central area redevelopment, the majority of them act purely as retailing rather than service centres, in the full sense of this term. Over time, in fact, as the centres have become larger, the provision of non-retail units, such as business services, has

The impact

of Town Centre Shopping

Schemes

in Britain

29

declined from approximately 8% of all units to 2%. Business services are seen to be incompatible with an ideal tenant mix, since they create dead frontages and disrupt the continuity in complementary retail activities. Relatively little accommodation has also been given to leisure and recreational facilities: the percentage figures for those schemes containing hotels, recreational centres, cinemas and theatres, public houses and discos and clubs being respectively 6,3,5,21 and 20. In contrast, a large number of schemes have been integrated with new office development and nearly a third have had housing units built in conjunction with them. While proportionately more schemes have included office provision in recent years. the percentage increasing from 56% between 1963 and 1966 to 84% for 1975 - 1979, however, the amount of average floorspace has declined from 60,000 to 40,000 square feet over the same time scale. The incorporation of housing into shopping centres has also not generally been a successful experience, mainly due to problems of security and vandalism. Although a number of local authorities still regard housing provision as desirable, on the grounds that it helps to draw back a residential population to the core of the town, the proportion of schemes with housing has declined from two-fifths to less than one-fifth over the survey period.

2.1.6.

Layout

The ability to experiment with different forms of mall layout has been severely curtailed in British shopping schemes by the strictures of town-centre sites. It is not possible therefore to identify a distinct evolutionary process in design or shape as is the case with the North American out-of-town developments. These have progressed from the single mall or dumb-bell shape to ‘L’ and ‘T’ forms and more recently to complex, circuitous configurations. The prevailing layout in British schemes is the single mall, found in 33% of centres, followed by a cross or cruciform approximation, 26% of centres, and a square or rectangular shape, still heavily influenced by the precinct concept, found in 16% of centres. The remaining proportion of schemes display a bewildering array of forms, some of them interrupted by conventional streets and others containing several protrusions and even cul-de-sacs. Generally-speaking, the single mall is most common in the smaller schemes and shapes become increasingly distorted with greater size. The number of shopping levels found in schemes does not appear to be significantly affected by type of layout although a high proportion of those with a square or rectangular form have two or more levels. Multiple shopping levels are more commonly associated with enclosed centres and the larger mixed partnership schemes where they have also generally been more commercially successful than in smaller, open developments.

2.1.7. Building Materials A major source of criticism of new shopping centres has been their external appearance and the way they often conflict with the traditional townscape. Since most of the schemes are essentially inward-looking, more attention and finance has usually

30

Progress

in Planning

been given to providing an attractive interior rather than exterior. It is difficult to define and measure the deficiencies which have been found on a consistent basis, but one major indication is the predominant type of building material that has been used. Large monolithic concrete structures have usually been the worst offenders and this has been the main building material in 20% of schemes. The use of concrete has declined over time, however, to a point where only 11% of schemes employed this as the main visible material between 1975 and 1979. Brick is generally a more sensitive material, found in 42% of schemes and has been more widely used in recent years. Glass was also found to be the predominant material in 28% of schemes, in this case reflectingthose shopping centres which had a large number of shop units fronting onto streets. Other major types of materials included stone and tiles. There are few clear-cut relationships between type of material used and size or design of scheme, but proportionately more local authority developments have employed brick when private and mixed partnership schemes have more commonly used concrete.

2.1.8.

Services

A major attribute of self-contained shopping centres is the separation of servicing facilities for individual shops from the main areas of consumer use. About half of the surveyed schemes still incorporate their servicing facilities at ground level, while about a quarter each have located them underground or at rooftop. Generally speaking, ground level servicing is more commonly found with smaller schemes, while underground facilities are particularly associated with larger, enclosed centres and rooftop facilities with more medium-sized, enclosed centres. Other servicing provisions that have contributed to a safer and more congenial environment for the shopping public are the extensive fire-proofing and sprinkler systems installed, the special ramps usually built for disabled people, the provision of seating and play sculptures etc. While these constitute considerable advances on the shopping environment found in traditional streets, however, a number of schemes have fallen short in the amount of amenity space that has been created. Compared to many shopping centres in North America and continental Western Europe, the British town-centre scheme typically lacks a focal area where people can simply congregate and rest or enjoy cultural and entertainment activities disassociated from the purely commercial functions of the scheme.

2.1.9.

Transport

Although central area locations tend to preclude the provision of car parking at levels similar to those found in suburban developments, a very high proportion of surveyed schemes (87%) had facilities available. The average number of parking spaces rises in direct proportion to the size of a centre, from 301 in those less than 100,000 square feet to 1172 in those over 500,000 square feet. Enclosed and partially covered centres have higher average numbers of spaces than open precincts (798,566 and 485 respectively), while car parking associated with purely private developments is in general less than

The tmpact of Town Centre dropping Schemes in Britain

31

that in centres which have local authority involvement: this may reflect the lower financial return from space given to parking although private developments are on average smaller than the others. The reasons for the relatively low provision of bus stations in new schemes are partly the greater capital expenditure that may be involved, and partly the transport planning implications of building a new terminus, especially if existing bus stations are adequate for the demand placed on them. In those schemes without bus stations, however, the average distance to the nearest station is nearly 400 yards. This is not to suggest that shopping schemes are inadequately served by public transport, but there is likely to be less direct access to them by public transport users from all parts of the city than for car users. Typically, more bus stations are integrated with larger schemes and those that are fully enclosed and hence have been more commonly built in recent years than in the late 1960s.

The survey of planning departments contained a number of questions about the locations of schemes, in particular whether they formed part of the traditional focus of shopping within the central area or created a new locus of activity, whether they had frontage on principal and/or secondary streets, whether their shops formed at least half the frontage on traditional shopping streets and how far the main entry to the scheme lay from the peak focus of shopping. A majority of the new schemes have been built in the traditional centre of trade, but 39% were considered to have created new loci of activity. By and large, smaller, open precincts have tended to form proportionately more new loci and these also tend to be located further away from the peak focus of shopping. Over time, there has been a gradual shift from more peripheral positions towards the traditional centre of trade in association with the growth in larger, enclosed developments. Overall, however, the mean distance of all schemes to the peak focus of shopping is only 118 yards, suggesting that large numbers of them are within general proximity of the high street. This is confirmed by the statistics on street frontage which shows that almost three-quarters of schemes had direct frontage onto principal shopping streets, despite the fact that only half the shop units themselves were outward facing. There is a potential contradiction here that the most modern centres want access to the high street but at the same time are essentially inward-looking in their shopping activities; but the problem is resolved when schemes are aligned at right angles or at a diagonal to the high street rather than replacing traditional shops along it.

2.1.11. Commercial Swcess A further question in the survey was directed to whether new shopping centres had reached their commercial expectations, exceeded them or failed to reach them. Clearly the answers conveyed here contain a degree of subjectivity and bias but we were interested primarily in the broad pattern of replies rather than precise figures. The most

32

Progress

in Planning

surprising overall result was that only a relatively small number of schemes were thought to have failed (approximately 13% of all centres). The symptoms of such failure are conveyed through a variety of criteria, but particularly the incidence of vacant units and the proportion of non-retail units supported. The mean number of vacancies in failed centres is 7.8, compared to 1.8 in those which have reached their expectations, while the figures for non-retail units supported are respectively 5.4 and 3.6. Typically, the failed centres also have low levels of car parking provision (an average of 300 spaces compared to 666 in schemes which reached their expectations and 724 in those that exceeded them) and their distance from the peak shopping focus is likewise considerably greater than those that have been very successful (132 yards compared to 55 yards). The converse of course applies to the 21% of schemes that were seen to have surpassed their expectations. These tend to be above average in size, are more likely to be enclosed or partially covered, have a commanding presence in a central location and are well served with transport facilities. In addition to the high incidence of car parking spaces noted above, it is significant that 30% of the schemes which exceeded their commercial expectations have a bus station integrated with them. Eighty-five per cent of them also front onto principal shopping streets in contrast to 44% of the failed schemes. There has been some overall improvement through time to the extent that there have been fewer failures in the 1970s compared to the 1960s and this is related to the general growth in experience and sophistication of the developers. Some of the better known, early faiiures are the Trinity Square Centre in Gateshead, the Tricorn Centre in Portsmouth, the EIephant and Castle Centre in Southwark and the Carr Precinct in Ipswich. Recent renovation in some of these schemes, however, has led to a more favourable trading condition than was previously found. Examples of some of the more conspicuously successful schemes are: the Whitgift Centre, Croydon; the Arndale Centre, Doncaster; the St. James Centre, Edinburgh; the Eastgate Centre, Gloucester; the Trinity Street complex, Leeds; the Arndale Centre, Poole; and the St. George’s Centre, Preston. Certain other schemes have been particularly successful but did not show up in the survey results as being so since the expectations set for them were very high prior to their opening, and hence they have simply been recorded as meeting what was anticipated. The Eldon Square Shopping Centre in Newcastle, examined in more detail in a later chapter, is a case in point. The reverse, of course, also applies to some schemes that have not performed well and where the plannng department may have had some apprehension beforehand.

2.2.

TYPOLOGIES

OF

CENTRES

Our examination of the historical evolution of town-centre shopping schemes and the more detailed assessment of the characteristics of those built since 1963 suggest a number of systematic regularities can be perceived in types of centre despite the random nature of their development. The key features are the differences in design, size and location that have been noted. The fundamental difference in design relates to those schemes that are open and carry through the traditions of the precinct concept, and those that are partially covered or fully enclosed. In size, we have differentiated between

The lmpa~t of Town Centre ~~~ppj~g Schemes in 8r~ta~n

33

a group of district-equivalent centres and regional shopping centres and also recognised that there are various small schemes which have a more iocalised or convenience trading role. In terms of location, we have suggested a distinction between town-centre accretions and comprehensive developments and alternatively between those that create new loci of activity or form part of the traditional shopping area. Elsewhere we have referred to these differences under the headings of peripheral accretions and core replacement schemes (Davies and Bennison, 1978a). Clearly there is some degree of overlap in these designations and we do not want to assert that they form well-defined categories of centres to which we could assign the full range of schemes. The process of development has not itself been guided by an accepted terminology for schemes particularly in the locational context. However, some attempt to provide a broad classification of centres is desirable if only to establish a more consistent framework for later studies that go beyond this work and particularly those that may subsequently be able to compare the nature and scale of effects resulting from a larger sample of schemes. At the same time, the recognition of distinctive types of centres may provide more general understanding for the planning profession about preferred forms of development in the future. The data collected in the planning department survey provided considerable scope for determining a more objective classification of centres, at least for those built since 1963. The data were converted into an ordinal form to make them more compatible, leading to the generation of 98 variables from 26 root conditions of schemes. These were subjected to a number of different grouping analyses, using the Clustan 1A programme suite (Wishart, 1970) including: monothetic division, employing Shannon’s info~ation statistic (Williams 1966), sum of chi-square (elsewhere known as association analysis, Williams and Lambert, 1959), and the Crawford-Wishart group statistic (Crawford and Wishart, 1967). In addition, Wishart’s (1970) iterative relocation strategy with the error sum of square statistic was used to rectify the misclassifications which are a perennial problem with monothetic strategies. Considerable repetition occurred in those attributes that divided between schemes, particularly the variables relating to size (in terms of floorspace), site area, housing provision, and location according to street frontage. The most meaningful results were produced from the Crawford -Wishart clustering procedure. Eight clusters of schemes after seven divisions of the data were worthy of extraction, although the first four clusters are most significant from the point of view of interpretation. The first division into two clusters occurred on the locational criterion of whether or not schemes had frontage onto principal shopping streets. Those that did were further subdivided into schemes with a site acreage of less than 5 acres and those with larger sites. Those that had a generally poorer location (fronting onto secondary streets) were split into schemes with relatively littIe housing accommodation, and those with more than 50 house units (but also including schemes where no data was available on this). Further distinctions were then made in terms of the distance of the nearest bus station, the main building material employed, the number of shop units and the gross floorspace of schemes. These are shown in Fig. 2.1 together with the number of cases falling into each group. Perhaps the most surprising feature of these results is that by the seventh division of 1PP14:1--f

34

Progress

in Planning nearest 44 bus statton over 500 yds away site 76 under 5 acres

125 Onto princtpal street

\

site \49 over 5 acres

/23 ’ \

no frontage 47 onto prmctpal / street

less than 36 50 house umts _

\ \

over 50

, , house units

Ko=)y

FIG. 2.1.

:

/

schemes \

nearest 32 bus statton wtthin 500 yds

\

frontage

NODAL CENTRES ON CONSTRICTED SITES

/

Classification

brtck main buildmg matertal other materials ‘26 mam building form

NODAL CENTRES LARGER SITES J

between 18 26and50 shop units smaller or 18 larger no of umts

1 ~$nz&O

ON

PERIPHERAL CENTRES WITH LIMITED HOUSING I

}

sz;:;;RE:

of town centre schemes by monothetic divisive clustering process.

the analysis there is no discrimination between the covered or open centres. Location and size remain dominant factors and there is the additional consideration of other functions incorporated into schemes (reflected here by the amount of housing found). Accessibility and environmental character have also been brought in (as suggested by the distance to the nearest bus station and the form of building material). In a wider consideration, however, it may be that the distinction between covered and open centres, while visually prominent, is not in itself necessarily very significant in pointing to functional differences between schemes and potentially has less relevance (in comparison to size and location, and perhaps accessibility and environmental character) in determining the impact of schemes. Its omission from the statistical results here also substantiates our own decision to exclude it from the earlier subjective classifications we have made. We should not make too much of the specific attributes which have dictated the outcome of the clusters in Fig 2.1, however, for this was but one form of several variant procedures tried. It seems more sensible to generalise upon the broad sets and sub-sets obtained under the following headings. - Nodal centres on constricted sites, some of which have better access to public transport facilities than others.

The Impact of Town Centre Shopping Schemes in %rjtaj~

35

Nodal centres on larger sites, some of which have better physical attributes than others. others. - Peripheral centres with limited housing, differentiated into medium-sized schemes and those that are either very small or very large. - Peripheral centres with greater housing, differentiated into large and small schemes. Examples of schemes which are included in these groups are given in Table 2.3. The nodal centres form the largest overall group but appear to combine those that are essentially core replacement schemes with a number of large centres which have created a new locus of activity, and which may then have enlarged the traditional shopping area. The term nodal is therefore preferable to the term central to the extent that these schemes form part of a general nexus of shopping, although differing slightly in precise location. Certain qualifications need to be given to the condition of accessibility, particularly the fact that many of those schemes some distance from a bus station will nevertheless have a number of bus staging points near them; similarly, quali~cations apply to the built form of schemes, where many of those with a relatively poor external appearance nevertheless have a highly attractive and sophisticated interior. The peripheral centres contain a number of older schemes built in the middle of the 1960s and some schemes which, while currently in an off-centre location, may gradually over time become the main focus of shopping activity. The subdivision of these schemes into those with or without extensive housing accommodation is perhaps less satisfactory -

TABLE 2.3.

Examples of schemesincludedin eight clusters Peripheral centres

Nodal centres A.

ON CONSTRICTED

SITES

W&hpoorer publictransport access

A.

transport access

ON LARGER

SITES

PROVISION

Small or large centres Tricorn Centre, Portsmouth Bull Ring, Birmingham Menion Centre, Leeds

Arndale Centre, Doncaster Kirkgate Centre, Bradford Arndale Centre, Middleton B.

HOUSING

Bond Street, Leeds Blackfriars Centre, Worcester Lion Walk Centre, Colchester

St. John’s Precinct, Liverpool Corporation Square, Birmin~am Kirkgate Centre, Wakefield

With better public

WITH LIMITED

Medium-sized eentres

B.

WITH GREATER

HOUSING

PROVISION

With betterphysical attributes Lionyard Precinct, Cambridge Eldon Square, Newcastle Guildhalf Centre, Exeter

Catford Centre, Catford Amdale Centre, Watford Bi~in~am Shopping Centre

Withpoorer physicalattributes Trinity Square, Gateshead Victoria Centre, Nottingham Arndale Centre, Manchester The distinctions between nodal centres and peripheral ccntres relate to frontage onto (traditional) principal shopping streets. The success of some schemes initially in this ‘peripheral’ position have subsequently led to them becoming part of the general nexus of trade. The distinctions between accessibility conditions pertain to distinctive to the nearest bus station.

36

Progress

in Planning

than the subdivisions of nodal centres, but the whole question of residential provision has been a crucial issue in planning and there has been a clear difference of opinion among developers as to the desirability of including it in schemes.

2.3.

CONCLUSION

Town-centre shopping schemes have created a radically new set of retailing conditions in the central areas of most British towns and cities. While they have been broadly guided by central area redevelopment plans and have been built to increasingly sophisticated design specifications, they have nevertheless grown up in a rather haphazard way according to where land can be made available. The same constraints operating on the site have led to a variety of shapes and sizes of schemes, particularly from the physical point of view. In terms of their shopping provisions and internal decor, however, a more homogeneous set of characteristics can be found, especially for the more recent enclosed centres. The dominance of the tenant structure by leading chain stores, the subdued lighting effects and the provision of mall artifacts, all contribute to a rather stereotyped appearance to the consumer such that one scheme can seem much like another. This similarity in environment is perhaps most typified in the range of Arndale shopping centres. The contrast between the uniformity of the shopping mall and the heterogeneity of the wider complex in which it is encapsulated is evident in town-centre schemes found throughout the western world. Where British centres have perhaps differed most from their North American and continental European counterparts is in their more modest accommodation of other, non-retailing activities. This is best seen in the context of large comprehensive redevelopment projects where in Britain the creation of a new shopping centre tends to dominate the complex of other provisions but in other countries it becomes much more an auxiliary or equal partner. In Newcastle, the Eldon Square Shopping Centre is integrated with a new bus station and recreational centre and has a small amount of office provision. The main area of new office development is physically quite separate, however, and entertainments and cultural facilities are concentrated in a further different part of the central area. In Detroit, the new Renaissance Centre combines a vast amount of office and apartment provisions with a large hotel and leisure facilities, and the shopping component forms only a relatively small part of the total entity. Likewise, in Utrecht, extensive offices, a trade and cultural centre, new rail and bus stations, a hotel and entertainments are all physically enjoined with a new shopping centre as the Hoog Catherinje project. These differences are not noted here to imply any criticism of the British approach, but simply to indicate that the British emphasis on concentrating its retail resources in town centres has also been accompanied by a policy of developing new shopping schemes in relative isolation from other service functions.

CHAPTER

3

The impact of Town-centre

Shopping Schemes

The impact of surburban shopping developments, particularly superstores and hypermarkets, has been well documented in recent years. Besides the extensive studies which have been made of individual schemes, there has been wide reporting of the score of public enquiries held (e.g. Lee and Kent, 1976, 1978), and several syntheses of research findings (e.g. Scottish Development Office, 1977). This has established a comprehensive record of both the positive and negative aspects of these developments, including their economic, environmental and social effects. Such detailed insights are not available in the case of town-centre schemes for only one or two in-depth studies have been undertaken (e.g. Davies and Bennison, 1978b; Thomas, 1978) and there has been little systematic comparison of their results. This means that any introductory appraisal we might give here must be somewhat speculative and subjective. However, there are two sets of documentation we can draw upon: firstly, those results from the planning department survey that related to the repercussions of town-centre schemes; and secondly, a number of critical commentaries that have been made in both professional journals and the press. A number of parallels may also be drawn with the facts obtained about outlying developments. The economic issues centre mainly on the shifts in trade that any new successful development will bring, particularly its deleterious competitive effects on traditional retailing activities. There are also similar changes in employment opportunities, the replacement of outworn resources by modern facilities, the trends to increasing strength of multiple retailers at the expense of small independents. These changes may often be greater within a central area than an outlying locality because of the larger size of town-centre shopping schemes, but because of the general milieu of land uses found here and the complicating effects of other redevelopment projects, their precise form and degree tend to be concealed and are not exposed to such public scrutiny as the effects of suburban developments. Environmentally, the issues that have dominated the debate on suburban developments have concerned the instrusion of new facilities into rural, ‘greenbelt’ land and the pressures created on existing road networks. Similar considerations apply in the central area, where the introduction of new, large centres into a varied townscape (some parts of which may be designated a conservation area) needs careful and sensitive treatment and where the advantages of resolving land use conflicts by segregating people from traffic in one locality have to be balanced against the problems of creating blight and new points of congestion elsewhere. In social terms, the promotion of modern, efficient and comfortable shopping facilities in 37

Changes traditional character Creates new points of congestion

Intrusive effects on older townscapes Creates artrftcral atmosphere Causes blight on other streets Causes pressure on existing infrastructures

Modermses outworn areas Reduces land use conflicts

Scope for new destgn standards Provides weather protection Leads to upgradmg of some streets Integrates new transport

Reduces old stock

Discriminates against small independents

Increases monopoly powers

Changes structure of employment

Reduces trade on perrpherai streets

Effects status of surrounding centres

Accommodates larger modern stores

Increases rates and revenues

Creates new employment

Improves trade on adjacent streets

Enhances status of central area

Negative

Add new stock

Positive

Negative

Environmental

Potentially greater social mteraction

Concentrates shopping in one area

Provides more comfort and amemties

Provides more safety

Allows for efficient shopping Provides new shopping opportunities

Positive

Major forms of impact of town-centreshoppingschemes

Positive

Economic

TABLE 3.1.

Negative

Becomes dead area at night

Breaks up old shoppmg hnkages

Attracts delmquents and vandals

Creates new stress factors from crowds

May hmit choice to stereotypes

May favour car-borne shoppers

Social

z-. 3 Q

-0 5

w 5.

The Impact

of Town Centre Shopping

Schemes

in Britain

39

outlying areas has been seen to favour the more middle-class, car-borne shopping public, leaving a potentially depleted set of resources in the inner city for the elderly and poor. The argutnent requires fuller qualification than space permits here but is generally less tenable in the case of new schemes in central areas where there is a greater mixing of socio-economic groups. However, town-centre shopping schemes do tend to have a stronger market orientation to the younger, more affluent members of society and strict management practices in the use of schemes, together with the lack of a wide range of service provisions, raises questions about their contribution to the life of the city as a whole. The wide range of considerations that need to be taken into account in assessing the impact of town-centre shopping schemes are summarised in Table 3.1. Our discussion here will focus on those more dominant issues that have so far commanded attention and for which more factual information is available. If greater prominence is given to the negative effects of schemes, then this is intended solely to provide more understanding about their lesser known consequences than to be critical in a prejudicial way.

3.1.

ECONOMIC

EFFECTS

Unlike its suburban counterpart, the impact of a town-centre scheme begins far in advance of its opening through the repercussions which occur in the acquisition of its site. Traditional businesses are often displaced and their own re-locations, if there are any, together with the clearance rendered in the central area, lead to initial, albeit temporary changes in the trading pattern. When the new scheme then opens there are further locational adjustments, this time linked to the new opportunities made available in the scheme itself and in relation to marked alterations in consumer behaviour along conventional shopping streets. Ultimately, it is the changing structure of retailing activities along conventional shopping streets that show the most visible and lasting effects of the new scheme, in some cases exhibiting new signs of growth by virtue of their close proximity to the scheme, in others a steady decline induced by their increased distance from the new centre of gravity of trade.

3.1.1.

Retail Displacements

and Re-locations

The survey of planning departments indicated that a substantial amount of former retailing activities have been supplanted by new schemes in the initial stages of acquiring their sites (Table 3.2). Of all the former land uses occupied in part by new schemes, retailing formed the most common group (in 66% of cases), followed by vacant land (28% of cases), offices (14) and wholesaling (10). Most schemes pre-empted sites with a mixture of land uses, however, including industrial and residential activities and some specialised functions such as obsolescent markets and transport depots. Over time, the tendency has been for more schemes to encroach into traditional retailing areas, partly

40

Progress TABLE 3.2.

in Pfann~ng Perceived effects of town-centre shopping schemes (percentages in parentheses) Vacant 47 (28)

Offices 24 (14)

Mean No of Shops displaced by schemes 24.4

Mean No. of Shops reiocared tnto schemes 53

No. of schemes where large mumpIes phystcahy relocated 45 (27)

Severe 9 (6)

Moderate 53 (34)

Slight 62 (40)

Prmcipal street5 No trade change Trade increased Trade decreased

All streets 21 (27) 6 (9) 2 (3)

Most streets 36 (46) 24 (36) 8 (14)

Some 21 36 49

Secondary streets No trade change Trade increased Trade decreased

All streets 15(21) 2 (5) 2 (3,

Most streets 30 (43) S(l-4) 71(2X)

Some streets 25 (36) 30(81) 52 (69)

Moderate 9 (6)

Shght 36 (25)

No effect 95 (67)

Moderate IS(l0)

Shght 29 (20)

No effect 100 (69)

Former land uses’ N= 171 Retail changes

N= 125: 113; I69 Trade shifts N= 155

Environmental N= 142

bltght

VehvAe congestton iv’= 145

Wholesahng I7(10)

IThe percentages in this case refer to the pTOpOTttOn of schemes replacmg former have replaced more than one iand use, hence the figures do not sum to 100.

Retallmg lI3(66)

No effect 31 (20)

streets (27) (54) (83)

land uses and many schemes

because of a shrinkage in vacant land available and partly because of the increasing pressure to build in prime locations. The record of shop displacements shows that an average of 24.4 businesses have been removed by each scheme or 3050 in the 125 cases for which answers to this question were received. Of these, only an average of 5.3 businesses re-located into the scheme itself, with the rest going elsewhere in the central area or more likely being liquidated. As centres have increased in size and proportionately more of them have become enclosed, so the number of displacements has increased but the number of re-locations has declined. In schemes built prior to 1966, the mean number of displacements was 14.9. with 8.0 of these entering a new scheme; in the period 1975-78, the mean number of displacements was 13.6 with only 3.6 re-locations. Similarly, open schemes displaced an average of 20.0 shops and had 5.0 re-locations, while fully enclosed centres displaced an average of 28.1 shops and had 3.6 re-locations. The majority of those businesses affected have been the small, independent specialist traders and at first sight the statistics suggest a sorry tale of their enforced demise and their replacement by mainly large, multiple traders. What is missing from the data is any indication of the physical condition of these shops at the time of their closure and the relative state of their trading health. While there is much sentimental attachment to the memory of the traditional shop, it is arguable that large numbers of them will have been

The Impact

of Town Centre Shopping

Schemes

in Britain

41

operating under extremely difficult circumstances and would not have survived for long even without the introduction of a new shopping scheme. Although the majority of them may have been obsolete, however, certain businesses would have remained viable and some writers (for example, Dawson and Kirby, 1979) have questioned whether they have been adequately recompensed. Compensation in itself may not be enough for the more progressive independent; what is needed here is more choice in alternative sites and preferably in more modern facilities at rents that can be afforded. Rarely does the private developer or the local authority make special allowance fo the accommodation of more marginal traders in a new shopping centre - except in the provision of market stalls. Small businesses may also be indirectly affected by the opening of a new shopping centre as larger stores from traditional shopping streets move into the scheme or open up additional branches there. Many of the small shops are what Nelson (1958) has called incipient traders to the extent that they depend for their trade on the crowds generated by other attractor stores and hence they are particularly vulnerable to any changes in patronage of these. The survey indicated that in more than a quarter of all schemes there was the re-location of a major attractor store, where this was defined as a department or variety store or a large supermarket. However, the converse can occur where many small shops in the vicinity of a new scheme suddenly find that the scheme itself enhances trade among them and leads to a revitalisation that otherwise might not have taken place. The general experience of small shops within town centres is a mixed and complicated one, with some evidence pointing to the growth of the multiples at the expense of independent traders (particularly in the convenience-goods sector) but other evidence suggesting a considerable increase in small specialist shops (Schiller, 1975).

3.1.2.

Shifts in Patterns of Trade

The opening of a new scheme, particularly if it proves successful, can lead to marked changes in consumer behaviour and hence trading patterns, with repercussions not only for small businesses but a wide cross-section of retailers found along traditional shopping streets. The planning officers who completed the survey indicated that in 80% of cases there was a noticeable shift in the general pattern of trade. Most of the changes were described as slight or moderate, however, and in only 6% of cases were they considered severe. It is not possible to translate these qualitative assessments into quantitative terms, but the perceived effects of trading shifts do not seem to be as great as might have been expected. There are various reasons why this should be so. In the first place, the assessments refer to the overall pattern of trade and do not take into account variable changes along individual streets. Secondly, many of the assessments relate to schemes that were built some years ago and strict development control since that time may have led to a regeneration of trade in localities that initially experienced substantial decline. In addition, memories pale and the planning officers reporting their views may have under-estimated the true scale of effects. More insight can be gained from the answers to specific questions on trading changes along principal shopping streets and secondary shopping streets. In the first case, the

42

Progress

tn P~annj~g

overall impression that is conveyed is that most principal shopping streets experienced a distinct increase m trade, particularly where new schemes joined the traditional area of shopping concentration. In the second case, the reverse picture is presented where a majority of secondary shopping streets showed a marked decrease in trade, and this will have been strongest where new schemes extended the nexus of core shopping in one particular direction. In each of the cases, however, there are large numbers of exceptions suggesting a highly variable pattern of effects inside the general processes at work. We might summarise the general process as being one where new shopping schemes, whether in traditional or peripheral locations, extend the area of concentrated activities within the town centre, thereby benefitting most principal shopping streets, but where they also lead to a diminution of trade in the surrounding area, thereby adversely affecting a large number of secondary shopping streets. Even where the secondary streets may not experience an actual decline in trade, they often do not share in the general enhancement of trade within the town centre created by the additional attractions of a new scheme. The internal variations that occur within any particular place, however, are best illustrated by drawing on individual examples. Indicative of towns where new schemes have been perceived as simply being of general benefit to the central area and having no adverse consequences at all are Middlesbrough, Dudley and Stockport; places which formerly had a rather run-down traditional centre but which have subsequently been rejuvenated and have experienced a new wave of prosperity. In Exeter, a special study of the central area following the opening of the Guildhall Centre also indicated few harmful effects: ‘. . . very few people choose to shop only in the (new) Centre. Most people are merely adding this area of shops to the central shopping district. This does imply that the other areas of the town should not suffer unduly from competition from the new shops’. It was also thought that the scheme was attracting more people to the city: analysis of the hinterland showed it to be more extensive than previous studies had found (Exeter City Planning Department, 1977) In contrast. towns which have shown certain deleterious effects mclude Birmingham, Gloucester, Slough and Hartlepool. The survey respondents from Birmingham’s Planning Department suggested that there had been a reduction in trade along the west end of New Street. with the major axis of shopping now running from Corporation Street through the Bummgham Shopping Centre to the Bull Ring. In Gloucester, the opening of the Eastgate and King’s Square schemes had led to a decline in two main shopping streets (Southgate and Westgate Streets), but a third (Northgate Street) had maintained its trading levels, in part because of the location there of several large multiples. In Slough, the Queensmere Centre was built at the mid-point of the traditional high street and this has led to a retraction in trade at both ends of the street, the west being re-zoned for non-retail uses and the east reverting to more specialised retailing concerns. In Hartlepool, a traditional shopping area was seen to have suffered particularly from the large number of re-locations that took place into the new Middleton Grange Centre. The best known example of major shifts in trade, however, is the case of Nottingham where the opening of two large regional shopping centres, the Victoria Centre and the Broadmarsh Centre. has led to a dramatic restructuring of shopping patterns in the

The impart of Town Centre Shopping Schemes in ~ritaj~

43

central area. The two schemes are located respectively to the north and south of the traditional shopping area and have changed this from an essentially compact zone with a slight east-west orientation to one with a more distinctive linear shape and a pronounced north-south axis. The process has been assisted by the pedestrianisation of several streets, especially those forming a link between the two schemes.

3.2.

ENVIRONMENTAL

EFFECTS

Most British town centres are characterised by a townscape which displays features of organic development over many years: buildings of different design and materials are juxtaposed in streets of varying length and width. Where unity exists it is often the result of early town planning in the nineteenth century which frequently produced buildings of quality, built to reflect the values and aspirations of the leading citizens, and designed on an essentially human scale. The opposition on environmental grounds to new selfcontained shopping schemes derives in part from inherently poor architectural designs, often incorporating building materials which do not harmonize with those around them, and in part from their relative scale which may not accord with the traditional townscape. Criticisms also arises in some quarters towards the artificiality of the environment of enclosed shopping centres but this is a more debateable point. Further considerations are the degeneration of the physical health of certain streets through blight, itself induced by the trading effects of new schemes, and the vehicular congestion that may arise in certain localities, particularly the overloading of existing access roads and the creation of bottlenecks at entry and exit points to a scheme.

3.2.1. Visual Zntrusiveness Criticism of the visual intrusiveness of new shopping developments has, perhaps su~risingly, been as forthcoming from professional architects as from any other source. The poor architectural standards which are often found, however, are blamed more on the cost constraints imposed on design than on the paucity of skills within the profession itself. In one of the most far-ranging and evocative commentaries made, Wright (1973) considers a major architectural fault to be that the spaces of a new shopping environment rarely have the air of being designed for people to walk in. This may seem somewhat paradoxical given the basic concept of the precinct or mall, but he bases his opinion on the fact that an environment for pedestrians should be one of narrow frontages, with quick changes of scene and have an important vertical element. Most new schemes are essentially korizuntal in perspective, which means one has to walk further to get a change of scene, and makes for a ‘screamingly dull upward view’. It is the absence of a vertical perspective to modern developments which Wright regards as the most serious flaw: ‘low canopies and ceilings destroy the articulation of the town, If the town is to read as an organic and thus comprehensible whole, its arteries must have a clear height in proportion to their importance. This means that the buildings flanking them must have height. . . ’ . They must also have an identifiable form and texture:

44

Progress

in Planning

large, modern shops with even levels of artificial lighting and featureless walls and ceilings can likewise produce a deadening effect on the shopper. An equally damning indictment of the effect of industrialised building methods is given by Wright. While drudgery should be taken out of construction work, he sees no reason why skill or freedom of design should also be removed. The criticism is common to much new building, but it is particularly serious in the case of shopping centres because of their size and since public expectations are higher here than in other developments. ‘The distressed eye looks out across acres of coarsely conceived. badly fitting buildings: grotty concrete steps, cheap, twisting aluminium trim, rough concrete precast panels, like giant’s breakfast food; oozing mastic joints, thin broken infill panels - the whole uncleaned and uncleanable, unloved and unlovable, the architecture of greed and carelessness’. While Wright’s descriptions are strident and emotional they reflect on much popular thinking. At one end of the scale are developments like the Manchester Arndale whose sheer size and bulk, combined with somewhat incongruous facings of yellow tiles has produced a lot of criticism from both local residents and outside observers (see e.g. The Guardian, 16 October 1978). At the other end of the scale are older and smaller schemes whose shoddy appearance and inept design have not only made them eyesores but also, where they have been commercially unsuccessful, potential economic burdens to the community as a whole. Examples include the Tricorn Centre in Portsmouth, the Elephant and Castle Centre and Trinity Square in Gateshead that we have referred to before. An assessment of the impact of new shopping schemes on traditional townscapes, however, should not focus exciusively on those that show a marked insensitivity for their surrounds or which have become blemishes on the urban fabric. Very often the existing environment of the central area displays little if any outstanding architecture, reflecting in its townscape its basic commercial function through a variety of purposebuilt or adapted buildings. Unless a new scheme is unusually large relative to the central area or presents a large proportion of blank wall to traditional shopping streets. its external appearance may blend in quite satisfactorily with the architecture around it. Moreover, there are instances where the new scheme can fairly be said to have provided a substantial enhancement of a central area, the best example probably being the widely acclaimed Brunel Centre in Swindon. Commenting in ArchitecturalReview, for example, Colin Amery (1976) thought that ‘the new shopping arrangement has achieved what so many recent developments have lamentably failed to do. It has accepted the realities of the supermarket world, car parking and huge delivery areas and made them fit into an architectural framework that actually enhances their mundane nature. the architects have brought dignity back to the town.’ The most difficult problems arise when a new shopping scheme is projected for an area of historic townscape. There are examples such as the Southgate Street development in Bath and the Tower Centre in Hoddesdon where poorly designed schemes are noticeably out-of-tune with their surrounds, but there are others which have been integrated quite successfully. Clearly, the smaller the development, the easier it should be: the Davygate Centre slotted between two streets in the middle of York, for example, must go virtually unnoticed by most casual visitors to the city. Yet larger schemes have

The impact

of Town Centre Shopping

Schemes

in Britain

45

also been incorporated successfully: Old George Mall in Salisbury, for instance, is built between the traditional streets, and does not intrude severely into the character of the city. More ambitious is the Millburngate Centre in the heart of Durham City. ‘A new shopping centre right on the riverside facing the finest cathedral site in England sounds a sure recipe for disaster. Against the odds, however, its designers have succeeded in creating a large chunk of town which slots into place with remarkable felicity. Success is achieved largely by the imaginattve landscaping of roofs and the breaking down of what could have been an obtrusive giant into a number of smaller units. These differ in shape, are compactly massed, and right in scale with their surroundmgs’ (Broune and Boyes-Watson, 1977).

3.2.2.

Blight and Congestion

Criticism of the intrusive effects of new shopping schemes also needs to be tempered by comparison with the record of change created by new office developments, major road works and some civic building. It is arguable that these other innovations have done more to transform the aesthetic character of the traditional townscape than shopping centres since they are less often integrated into an existing pattern of movement and activity. More fundamentally, however, one cannot dissociate one major component of land use change from the collective body of effects taking place. This is well illustrated in the case of adjudicating how much environmental blight might occur along traditional shopping streets through the competitive trading effects of a new shopping scheme. Blight itself can be recognised as a deterioration in the physical appearance of businesses, accompanied by sub-divisions of properties and a growing incidence of vacancies, which is brought on by a general decline in sales and profits over a fairly long period of time. To the extent that blight is most commonly found in the more peripheral parts of the central area and among the weaker sectors of retail trade, it is difficult to establish a direct cause and effect relationship with any new scheme. The impact of a new shopping centre might simply be that of exacerbating a process already underway and one that has been encouraged by several aspects of redevelopment. Certainly most planning departments feel that new shopping schemes have, by themselves, made only a small contribution to the spread of environmental blight. In 67% of cases in the survey, no direct effects were recorded at all, and in a further quarter of cases, the consequences were regarded as being only slight. The two instances where blight was seen to be severe were in Chelmsford, related to the High Chelmer Centre, and Hartlepool, related to the Middleton Grange Centre. There may be some underreporting in the results again, but one cannot deny the overall impression that new schemes have been seen to have less deleterious effects than might have been expected. A similar picture emerges with respect to the views conveyed about vehicular congestion. Here, 69% of cases were found to have had no effect on promoting new points of conflict and in only one case, from the Kirkgate Centre in Bradford, were resulting traffic problems considered severe. The assessment will have been complicated by the general growth in vehicular traffic within the central area in recent years and congestion during shopping hours needs to be compared against that which occurs during the commuter rush hours. But, whether minor periods of inconvenience build up

46

Progress

in Pfanni~g

during the day or specific iocalities experience regular bottlenecks or not, the mass of planning opinion seems to be that the problems are not of sufficient weight to warrant denigration of new shopping schemes on these grounds.

3.3.

SOCIAL

EFFECTS

The social divisions that are seen to characterise the development of new shopping facilities in the suburbs are less evident in the central area since new centres here have become absorbed into the collective melting pot of retail activity and are used by a wide cross-section of people. Where social distinctions may be perceived it is mainly in relation to the greater appeal which the new centres have for younger family groups and also teenagers. The reasons for this are fairly obvious: the safer, more comfortable environment for children, larger stores with a variable range of merchandise for domestic shopping requirements that have to be undertaken in a limited amount of time the concentration of fashion stores and so on. In contrast, the traditional character and legacy of older shops in surrounding streets may retain a stronger hold on single people and the elderly. While the policy of concentrating new shopping centres in central areas may itself be seen as socially desirable and equitable, there are a number of drawbacks to the way in which the centres have been built and are operated. At issue, in particular, are two separate but related considerations: first, the extent to which the new schemes provide a free choice in retailing opportunities and contribute to the overail well-being of the commercial structure of the central area; secondly, the extent to which local authority involvement in shopping centre development has ensured the best return available to the community from the sites which have been occupied. At the root of these considerations is a concern that large parts of the central area are increasingly becoming subject to the dictates of monopoly powers and that local authorities are acquiescing in the growth of large-scale retailing activities without ensuring a commensurate increase in service provisions.

3.3.1.

The Growth of Monopoly Powers

It was indicated in Chapter 1 that the broad aim of central area redevelopment plans has been to reduce the mix of conflicting land uses found and develop a highly ordered spatial structure of activities based on the principle of segregation. The process of acquiring land for this purpose, together with the sheer size of building that has taken place, has led to the emergence of a limited number of large landlords of property among which the local authority itself may be pre-eminent. A pattern is emerging whereby considerable blocks of property are owned and managed as a single entity and, because of the introverted nature of the schemes, new rules and regulations have to be enforced to ensure their protection and proper use. Apart from the cases of new shopping schemes, there are new office blocks, the educational or cultural precincts and new entertainments or recreational centres.

The impact of Town Centre Shopping Schemes in %rita~~

47

The worry here is that the traditional role of the town centre as a market place for the free expression of ideas and trading activity is rapidly being diminished. In the retailing context, there are several signs of the loss of freedom to consumers and the lack of choice for entrepreneurs that we have already pointed to. First, the entrenchment of multiple retailers in prime locations has forced the small, independent trader into increasingly less satisfactory secondary sites and reduced the possibilities for new innovation in highly accessible positions. Apart from the question of whether the small retailers themselves should be given more scope in better sites is the broader consideration of whether minority consumers patronising these shops should be less well served in terms of transport connections to them. Secondly, the new shopping centres, particularly those that are enclosed, essentially command a captive market but strict controls are exerted on the conduct of behaviour within the malls such that demonstations, hawking and even the taking of photographs are curtailed. There are clear reasons for this, particularly the prevention of violence within a confined space, but there is a loss of general liberty not found on the traditional street. Thirdly, the closure of many new centres at night and on Sundays adds to the creation of a dead area in the heart of the town and the shrinkage of public rights of way. This has been compensated to some extent by the environmental improvement of peripheral streets, but the loss again occurs in those most accessible locations. Fourthly. the extension of the core focus of shopping in the central area has not been matched by a concomitant increase in amenity provisions, particularly the creation of amenity areas where people can simply rest or congregate. The early precinct centres seemed to hold this as an ideal, but the central meeting place has become progressively reduced as a feature of the newer enclosed schemes.

3.3.2.

The Role of the Local Authority

In addition to the influence that they have exerted over this pattern of events through the general planning machinery, local authorities have increasingly become a direct contributor to the development of a more restrictive environment through their financing of shopping schemes. This raises a number of questions as to how far their new commercial role is compatible with the wider responsibilities for serving the community as a whole. While there is a clear logic to a local authority wishing to maximise rate and revenue returns from land which it owns, this aspiration has often been pursued during a period of escalating development costs when the difficulties of raising sufficient capital to finance a scheme have then led to the postponement of other redevelopment programmes or a trimming of badly needed service provisions integrated with the scheme itself. Doubts have also been raised in some quarters as to whether local authorities have always received a fair share in partnership arrangements with private developers, particularly through the effects of inflation. It is not unknown, for example, for a local authority to be spending more on loan interests from the purchase of land than it receives in rent for the same site from a private developer. In the case of the controversial Chequer Street shopping centre proposal in St. Albans, estimates have shown that the council would be paying $190,000 a year for 60 years in loan charges,

48

Progress

in Planning

and receiving $125,000 a year in rent. The developers would take 10% a year of the construction costs, and then any additional profit would be split one-third to the council and two-thirds to the developer. It is here that the local authority would hope to recoup its costs, but when the initial decision was taken to go ahead with the scheme no figures were available on the likely scale of return (Smith, 1978). Apart from these financial considerations, the record shows that since local authorities have been active in shoppmg centre development, there has not been a proportional increase in amenity provisions or an extension of the purely retailing function into a broader service role.

3.4. CONCLUSION

It is far more difficult to identify and quantify the specific effects of town-centre shopping schemes than is the case with outlying developments. The evidence that has so far been accumulated suggests their effects have been smaller than anticipated, but their effects are inter-mingled with a series of other on-going changes and have not been fully accounted for. Most studies to-date, including the detailed monitoring exercises on centres in the North East reviewed in the next chapters of this work, have focussed on the economic repercussions of new schemes and particularly their trading effects. However, it may be that, in the longer term, it is the environmental and social consequences that will be most significant, particularly given the rapid technological changes in retailing that are likely to take place during the next decade. As new forms of remote shopping emerge, via the use of terminals and other interactive computer methods, the demands for using the central area as a place for shopping will probably decrease in the distant future to be replaced by increasing pressures for more leisure and recreational facilities. One ought now to be envisaging what the central area of the year 2000 will be like, or should be like, and it may well be that the continued concentration of large-scale retailing activities in the heart of the town centre will leave a massive legacy of building structures that will no longer be needed.

PART

II:

CHAPTER

A CASE

STUDY

OF

THE

NORTH

EAST

4

Redevelopment

in Tyne and Wear

Although the North East has lagged behind the rest of the country both in terms of its general economic growth and with respect to its retailing performance, it was one of the earliest regions to encourage and adopt the development of new shopping centres particularly in town centre locations. The main reason for this was the need to renovate the physical environment, partly because much commercial property was in itself in an advance stage of decay and partly because it was felt that a face lifting exercise would contribute to an image of new activity and revitalisation. The local authorities were assisted in this through the massive grants and subsidies provided by the central government to improve infrastructures and accessibility conditions in the region. Some of the new shopping centres that have been established, however, have been private speculative ventures, in part attracted to the region by the public works programmes that were being implemented and in part by a recognition that the North East was under-endowed in many modern shopping resources. This was particularly true on Tyneside where even in the early 1960s a large part of total retail trade was commanded by local, family firms and the national multiples, both in food and durable-goods trade, . had made relatively little impact. The centres that were subsequently developed, however, have shown a mixed record of success and tend to epitomise both the best and the worst of retail planning policies effected throughout the country during the last 15 years. On the positive side are schemes like the Eldon Square Shopping Centre in Newcastle and the Galleries Centre in Washington which constitute two of the most successful and, in planning terms, influential developments built within the nation as a whole; on the negative side are schemes like the Trinity Centre in Gateshead and the inner city neighbourhood centres of Cruddas Park and Benwell in Newcastle, which have been notable failures. This chapter elaborates on the characteristics of those schemes that have been most important in changing the traditional retail environment of Tyne and Wear, giving special attention to the case of Newcastle wherein there has been most radical change.

4.1.

THE

TRADITIONAL

RETAIL

ENVIRONMENT

Retail conditions along Tyneside reflect to a large extent on conditions throughout the Northern Region, particularly the depressed nature of the market and the low level of business transactions. From the last period for which comparative statistics are IPP 14 I -” 49

50

Progress

in Planning

available, the intercensal years of 1961-71, Tyneside reported the lowest increases in retail turnover of any conurbation in the country while the Northern Region as a whole recorded the lowest increases in consumer expenditure. Since then, the position has remained much the same with per capita expenditures in the region in 1976 averaging g499 compared to s619 for the South East and E531 in the South West (URPI, 1979). Within this general picture of depression, however, Newcastle has always stood distinctly apart from other centres by virtue of its greater trading health and its dominance of the regional and metropolitan hierarchies. During the 1960s while lacking many of the familiar store names of other provincial capitals, such as W. H. Smith, Mothercare, Habitat and the like, it was nevertheless ranked the sixth most important shopping centre in Britain, a position far in advance of its own urban population size. Its status has always been determined by a very extensive trade area, itself the result of a lack of other major competing centres in the region, including Middlesbrough to the south whose own importance is diminished by its proximity to Stockton and Darlington. Throughout the 1970s Newcastle’s pre-eminence was further strengthened by piece-meal accretions and subsequently by the development of the Eldon Square Shopping Centre which, at the time of opening in 1976, was the largest centre in Britain, and which brought with it most of the leading fashion stores and multiples that had previously been missing. Next to Newcastle in the metropolitan hierarchy comes Sunderland, followed by Gateshead and South Shields, about equal in size, and then Wallsend, North Shields, Shields Road and Jarrow; all major nuclei of the traditional settlements of the conurbation. Below these there is a continuum of decreasing size orders of centres incorporating more of the suburban developments and some of the larger inner city district centres. At the upper levels of the hierarchy, there has been considerable stability in rank positions over time particularly the 1960s and 1970s when comparisons are possible between Thorpe and Rhode’s (1966) earlier classificatory scheme and the latest Tyne and Wear designations, shown in Table 4.1. (The table is itself an amalgam of the findings of two separate studies undertaken by the County Planning Department, one based on floorspace sizes and the other on the shopping habits of 2500 householders.) All of the upper level centres, with the exception of Shields Road, have been subject to redevelopment and incorporate new purpose-built shopping schemes, but these have simply, as in the Newcastle case, reinforced the entrenched positions of the centres. At the lower levels of the hierarchy, however, more substantial changes have taken place, particularly through the growth of Washington’s new town centre and the development of outlying district centres such as Denton Park in Newcastle and Doxford Park in Sunderland (opened after the county’s surveys referred to above). The recent extension of Washington in fact now puts this centre onto a level comparable with Wallsend and North Shields. Allied to these shifts amongst the smaller centres has been a general growth in suburban shopping facilities and contraction in inner city provisions, typical of metropolitan areas around the country as a whole. From 1960 to 1975, the Newcastle suburbs of Blakelaw and Kenton grew in population size by 28% but experienced an increase in number of shops of 77% (Butler, 1976). In contrast, the Newcastle inner area of Benwell suffered a population decline of 3 1% and a fall in number of shops of 43%.

The impact TABLE 4.1.

_~~~

of Town Centre Shopping

Schemes

in 3~itain

51

The hierarchicalstructureof traditional centres, c. 1975

~

Centre

District

Newcastle Sundertand Gateshead S. Shields Wallsend N. Shields Shields Road Jarrow Whitley Bay Washington Denton Park Adelaide Ter. Gosforth Ryhope Blaydon Grangeway Houghton Horton Nook Blrtley Hetton Sea Road Kiltingworth

Newcastle Sunderland Gateshead S. Tyneside N. Tynestde N. Tyneside Newcastle S. Tyneside N. Tyneside Sunderland Newcastle Newcastle Newcastle Sunderland Gateshead N. Tyneside Sunderland S. Tyneside Gateshead Sunderland Sunderland N. Tyneside

Total sales (f m)

% in durablesales

Size (000 sq. ft)

146.6 81.7 28.7 25.1 18.0 14.5 11.8 10.6 9.5 9.3 6.3 5.3 5.0 4.6 4.5 4.5 4.4 3.7 3.7 3.6 3.5 3.2

8S 66 47 65 34 47 43 31 44 22

3630 1450 650 550 350 430 280 230 320 210

Sources: Tyne and Wear County Planning Department, Structure Plan -Report

ofShopping Patterns in Tyne and Wear in 1975 (1977).

1 19 13 ; 8 29 0 13 7 6 22

loo 70

90

I30

ofSurvey (1978) and Survey

Much of the reduction in inner area shops has been due to commercial redevelopment, particularly in Newcastle, while there have also been the wider effects of rationalisation programmes by retail firms and significant numbers of comer shops have been forced out of business by competition.

4.2.

THE

NEW

SHOPPING

CENTRES

A total of eighteen new shopping centres have been built in the county during the last 15 years, excluding those smaller neighbourhood facilities serving new housing estates in outlying locations (Fig. 4. I). There has been little planning coordination between the development of these schemes primarily because most of them were conceived and built before the local government reorganisation of 1974 although individual local authorities attempted to integrate them within their own urban patterns of retailing. The centres comprise three types: the town centre schemes, district centres and new centres for the new towns of Washington and Killingworth. Their general characteristics are shown in Table 4.2. Ten of the schemes may be properly designated as town centre schemes. The first to appear were those built in the early 1960s in the smaller settlements along the banks of the Tyne. These piaces contained a retail structure that was essentially a legacy of Victorian times, with most shops occupying converted residential properties and

52

Progress

in Planning

FIG. 4.1.

New shopping centres in Tyne and Wear County.

forming ribbons along the main east-west roads. Increasing traffic on these roads on the one hand and the inadequacy of the shop properties for modern retailing activities (especially supermarkets) on the other led to increasing blight and decay. The construction of open air precincts, such as the Forum Centre at Wallsend at right angles to the main road, was seen as the most appropriate solution to the problem. Given their relatively small size, most of these developments were promoted by private companies although usually after initiatives for the basic idea had come from the local authorities. The local authorities had to play a more direct role in the plan proposals for new schemes in the larger town centres, however, which while formulated in the early 1960s were not to be realised until the end of the decade and, in the case of Newcastle, until the middle of the 1970s. The objectives here involved not only large scale redevelopment to reduce obsolescence and improve traffic conditions but also to enhance the status of the town centre as a whole and elevate its position relative to surrounding centres. The

The Impact of Town Centre Shopping Schemes in Britain TABLE 4.2.

‘Shopping

New shopping centres in Tyne and Wear

Locality

Opened

No. of Shops

Size (000s sq. fl)

Newcastle Newcastle Sunderland Gateshead N. Shields Jarrow Wallsend Felling Gosforth Blaydon Hebburn Washington Killingworth Newcastle Sunderland Newcastle Newcastle Whickham

1976 1969 1970 1968 1978 1964 1966 1972 1980 1974 1966 1973/78 1971 1969/73 1977 1968 1973 1975

120 30 85 80 55 90 45 15 34 30 44 69 15 26 11 26 33 12

782 50 300 110 204 252 183 30 80 85 76 500 90 63 40 25? 50 25

Centre Eldon Square’ Newgate Street’ Market Square’ Trinity Square’ N. Shields’ Precinct’ Precinct’ Precinct’ Gosforth Blaydon’ Hebburn’ Galleries Killingworth Denton Park Doxford Park Cruddas Park Benwell Whickham

53

schemes located

in traditional

town centres.

general sentiments are expressed in the First Report for Central Redevelopment in Newcastle (1961): ‘Newcastle must continue to provide the regional central area facilities even though surrounding towns may be expanding their own facilities. . . in spite of redevelopment in surrounding centres the main shopping centre should be substantially expanded.’ A situation arose therefore where Newcastle vied with Sunderland and Gateshead both in terms of their general improvement programmes and in their ambitions for the future shopping roles. The fact that Gateshead’s redevelopment programme and new shopping centre came first, then Sunderland’s and lastly Newcastle’s, reflects in part on the progressive increase in size of the challenge to be faced - but as events transpired the sequence also provides an inverse record of planning success, from abject failure to moderate success and to outstanding achievement.

4.2.1. Gateshead’s

Trinity Shopping Centre

The Trinity Centre was opened in 1968 at a cost of around $2 million and was the culmination of a massive period of reconstruction in the town centre that included the building of a new elevated A. 1 route (later changed to the A.6127), clearance of slum housing close to the central area and its partial replacement by new tower blocks and a number of other major road alterations that led to a general shrinkage of the traditional commercial core. From the beginning it was clear that the scheme would incur severe trading difficulties. During the first 3 years only fifteen of 50 units were let and a new market that had been installed as a main magnet ceased to operate. The open nature of the scheme, together with its low level of occupancy, attracted considerable vandalism

54

Progress in Planning

and later on structural problems arose because of old mine workings beneath it. The reasons for the failure appear to be an over-optimistic calculation of floorspace requirements at a time when there would be a substantial reduction in the trade area (partly through actual population decline and partly through the adjacent housing redevelopment programme); the truncation of the traditional shopping area through road works; and the physical design of the scheme itself, including its poor concrete appearance, the provision of an upper shopping level that was not well linked with existing consumer movement patterns, and the provision of overly large units that did not suit the requirements of the numerous displaced businesses seeking new sites. Subsequent attempts to revive the scheme by transferring its ownership to the local authority have led to some improvement in trading conditions, particularly since the reopening of the market in 1978; but it still fails to break-even in financial terms and is restricted in its growth potential by new competition from the Eldon Square Centre and the SavaCentre hypermarket in Washington New Town. Speculation that a new superstore development in the town centre in an adjacent position to the scheme might add to its retail attractiveness has to be considered against the prospect of a further diminution of the trade area once the Tyne and Wear Metro system becomes operational.

rf.2.2. S~~de~land’s Market Square Precinct This scheme was opened a year after the Trinity Centre but is much larger in size (300,000 square feet), much more fully integrated with other new land use developments, including three blocks of flats (Accommodating 270 units), a bus station and a refurbished railway station, and was a joint venture between the local authority and a private company from its inception. It occupies a similar site to the Gateshead scheme, being a core replacement of former obsolescent properties close to the traditional high street, but most of the new units are arranged on a single level in an ‘I’ shaped open mall layout that connects up the High Street with a further major shopping street. While architecturally not an attractive scheme, the basic design concept works well particularly in channelling consumers through it and enlarging upon the existing network of shopping trips rather than acting as a separate entity. For this reason it has been moderately successful in commercial terms with no lasting vacancies or letting difficulties. There has also been less contraction of the overall town centre trade area than in the case of Gateshead and Sunderland’s relative peripheral position to the conurbation as a whole, together with its strong identity as a separate community, has enabled it to withstand the competitive effects of other surrounding major developments. Its relative health has led the District Planning Department to suggest that a further 300,000 square feet of new shopping floorspace could be accommodated in the town centre up to 1981, but this seems a little optimistic and would need to be carefully appraised against any development proposals in South Shields, located just to the north, which is the only remaining large settlement in the county not to have acquired a new shopping centre. Some internal repercussions have been felt from the

The l~pa&t

of

Town

Centre Sh5pp~ng Schemes

in Erita~n

55

scheme including the loss of trade from Fawcett Street to the east, although the high street itself has maintained its traditional strength. The Fawcett Street area has been characterised by an increase in vacant premises and the growth of business services.

The Eldon Square Centre was the first fully enclosed town centre scheme to be built in Tyne and Wear and was not opened until 1976. Although originally conceived in the 1963 Development Plan for the city, a number of political arguments and later design changes led to considerable delays in its implementation despite the fact that a site and planning permission for the development was available from 1968. The scheme was conceived and subsequently built as two separate but related parts, to the north and south of Blackett Street, the southern part occupying a vacated wholesale green market and the northern part replacing a myriad of small and mainly obsolescent business activities, together with some offices and historically important buildings. Its mall layout, while constricted, follows broadly a circular pattern connecting the scheme on its northern eastern side with Northumberland Street, the traditional high street, and on its south eastern side with the junction of Grainger Street and Blackett Street, two additional major shopping streets (Fig. 4.2). A total of approximately 750,000 square feet of gross retail floorspace was provided accommodating six magnet stores (Bainbridge department store, Boots, W.H. Smith, Top Shop, Habitat and Hintons supermarket), a new retail market and about a hundred smaller units mainly engaged in fashion and durable goods trade. A new bus station, recreation centre and two car parks (with 1250 spaces) are integrated with the scheme and there will be direct access to the new Metro system interchange station at Greys Monument when this is opened (probably in 1981). The collective size, attraction of the new stores, the comfortable air controlled interior, its high degree of accessibility by both public and private transport, and most importantly its integration with existing shopping streets have all contributed to its resounding commercial success. The total cost of the scheme has exceeded di 60 million, shared jointly by Capital and Counties Property Company, Newcastle Corporation and the Shell Pension Fund, but optimism about its financial soundness and trading health has led to proposals for extensions to the scheme primarily in a northward direction. Eldon Square, like its smaller counterparts in Gateshead and Sunderland, however, has been planned as part of a wider programme of redevelopment in the central area as a whole and its impact, not only on the immediate local environment but also on the wider surrounds, needs to be considered against the background of the original objectives of the 1963 Development Plan and planning aspirations since that time. So, too, an evaluation of the scheme itself needs to be set in the context of changes in attitudes and economic circumstances during the passage of more than 13 years. While Newcastle is currently in the throes of preparing a new Central Area Local Plan most of the existing modern land use arrangements and new townscape features are the result of decisions taken during the 1960s and early part of the 1970s.

56

Progress

.*.

in Planning

6O”NOARY OF CENTRAL CONSERVATKm AREA

,

-.

:.’

,

6

\

2 \T

FIG. 4.2.

The central area of Ne=mctt~ man Tvne.

The Impact 4.3.

ELDON

SQUARE

IN

of Town Centre Shopping

A PLAN

Schemes

in Britain

57

CONTEXT

The 1963 Development Plan for Newcastle, in so far as the central area is concerned, embraced the same basic principles of other plans at the time, namely a focus on redevelopment to create a more orderly arrangement of land uses through their spatial segregation, a reduction in pedestrian and vehicle conflicts through the creation of precincts and pedestrianised areas, a more efficient circulation of traffic through the promotion of new motorways and transit systems, the accommodation of new commercial growth through purpose-built shopping and office facilities and the protection of important historical legacies, particularly in building architecture and design, through the designation of a conservation area. Of these five major pursuits, the transportation objectives have perhaps had most influence on the subsequent built form of the city centre and also on the physical network of Eldon Square itself. The original plan proposals were for two major north-south motorways to be built (Fig. 4.3) which, when linked to the north through an underpass beneath the Haymarket and considered against the river and railway acting as physical barriers to the south, would serve as a motorway box to the central area, defining its outer boundaries and acting to relieve it from inter-regional, or through traffic. A parallel set of inner distributory roads would be provided, one involving the improvement of Percy Street, the other a new road on the eastern side and with connections made to Neville Street in the south. To-date, only the eastern motorway and eastern inner distributory road (John Dobson Street) have been built; the western motorway repeatedly put off on cost grounds and now unlikely to be realised in the 1980s and with only minor changes made to Percy Street. Paradoxically, the physical design for Eldon Square incorporates large blank walls on its western frontage to act as a buffer against the build up of traffic and pollution on this side and yet no major road works have yet been made to justify this. The shopping mall inside Eldon Square is also raised above street level on the western side for the Development Plan envisaged a series of elevated walkways around the city and bridge connections being made across the inner distributory roads. The major entry and exit points to the scheme on this side still retain allowance for the connections to be made across Percy Street. The barren appearance of Eldon Square from this vista therefore cannot easily be blamed on the architects and developers of the scheme so much as on the failure of the city to fulfil other parts of its general plan. Other sections of the elevated walkway system in the central area would have allowed for the full pedestrianisation of Northumberland Street, rather than the partial scheme now found, since there would have been little traffic conflict on the feeder roads and a greater efficiency in traffic circulation. Only small vestiges of the walkway system have been built, however, mainly around the university and the central library. A view of what Northumberland Street, the walkway system and an early design for Eldon Square might have looked like in the vicinity of the Haymarket is shown in Fig 4.4. A third but later element of the transportation proposals was the provision of a Metro rapid transit system which, in the central area, would be underground, but elsewhere in the conurbation would link up with existing surface railways. This proposal is substantially being followed through and the vast investment that has been required is partly

Progress

58

in Plan~jng

Conservatton

I

m

FIG. 4.3.

Rapid

General&d

Tronsparf

Route

Central

Areas

Motorways

..a...*

_

plan of redevelopment proposals in the centraf area of Newcastle upon Tyne, 1963.

responsible for the postponement of the other transport modules. Within the city centre, two intersecting routes are being built with a total of five stations, three of which will be based in the core shopping and office quarters. The first section to be opened in 1980, linking the northern suburbs to the Haymarket Station, should have considerable effect on trade in the Eldon Square Centre by virtue of the improved accessibility it brings and thts will be further advanced by the opening of the interchange station at Grey’s Monument in 1981.

The Impact of Town Centre Sh~pp;~g Schemes in Britain

59

60

Progress

in Planning

The principles of segregating land uses, creating pedestrian malls and precincts, and accommodating new commercial growth in purpose-built shopping and office developments have all largely been accomplished together. The retail core of the city centre has been concentrated in the northern half, its former north-south axis along the line of Northumberland Street and Grainger Street widened out by the building of Eldon Square to the west, and its own network of malls provides the largest component of pedestrianisation to be found. New office development has been concentrated in the south east in a complex of high-rise buildings known as the All Saints centre. This has left a large area to the south, the traditional quarter for business service activities such as banking and building societies, to be designated a conservation zone, the justification being its distinctive Regency architecture imbued more than a century ago. In fact, the uniformity of the Regency buildings along a number of streets was the result of an earlier major redevelopment programme undertaken in the city centre from 1830 onwards, initiated by three local community leaders, Grainger, Dobson and Clayton, who transformed the ribbon-like character of the old medieval nucleus to an orderly, but fully built up pattern of land uses. Within this 19th Century plan, Grainger Street was designated the pre-eminent shopping street and its status was not surpassed by Northumberland Street until the late 1920s after the appearance of the department and variety stores which sought larger sites. Since Grainger Street itself was a new street that had shifted the focal point of retailing away from the lower reaches of the central area, the more recent proposals for concentrating shopping beyond the conservation zone have been but a further step in a long term drift of the centre of trade in a northerly direction. The designation of the conservation zone has been important in relation to the development of Eldon Square, however, since a number of the more secondary shopping streets fall within it and many retail businesses, already susceptible to decline through the erosion of local pedestrian traffic, have been liable to adverse competitive effects from the new shopping centre. Faced with a diminishing economic base and prevented from altering their external shop frontages, some of these businesses have failed to keep up their properties and become run down while others have vacated their premises which have not always been subsequently re-let. The area has also suffered a similiar set of deleterious repercussions from the movement of many service activities into the new All Saints complex. That part of the city centre which offers the best of architectural legacies from the past has therefore been markedly drained of its functional resources and limited in its growth potential unless other alternative stimuli can be injected. The new local plan for the city centre, still to be finalised although in an advanced stage of preparation, offers some prospect of remedial action, albeit in an indirect way. The general leaning ofthe new plan is towards completing the outstanding requirements of the old plan rather than encouraging further large scale renovation and permitting only a relatively small amount of new shopping floorspace to be accommodated. This may or may not involve some extension to Eldon Square but if only small additions are allowed these are not likely to add substantially to the difficulties already incurred in the southern part of the central area. More positive is the possibility that a major new retail investment may come into the conservation area itself or in an adjacent southerly

The impact of Town Centre Shopping Schemes in Britain

61

location. Serious consideration is being given to providing more pedestrianisation than has hitherto been made and enacting special street development control policies of the kind recently imposed on Clayton Street. Clayton Street was an early victim of Eldon Square’s effects, mainly through the transfer of several shops into the scheme, but a policy of restricting business services from entering the street led to a relative decline in rents and the subsequent re-entry of several smaller, specialised retail concerns.

4.4.

CONCLUSION

The new Local Plan for the city centre of Newcastle looks like adopting a cautionary stance towards future retail development, encouraging only small infill schemes rather than major disruptive elements. There still exists some uncertainty over the effects of the Metro system on changing patterns of movement and behaviour in the central area and where new growth points in trade may emerge. A similar hesitant approach has characterised the Structure Plan for Tyne and Wear, where there is an emphasis on limiting the introduction of further large-scale town centre shopping schemes except in those cases where (at the time the plan was prepared) there were already new schemes in the pipeline. The opening of the North Shields Centre in 1979 and the Gosforth Centre in early 1980 constitute the last of the scheduled developments. This conservative attitude, coupled with a strict limitation imposed on any outlying hypermarkets or superstores, should prove to be a considerable advantage to those town centre schemes already established, not least the Eldon Square development whose current level of commercial success should be enhanced by the Metro linkages made. Metro may also favour other town centre schemes on the northern banks of the Tyne, particularly the North Shields Centre, although its positive assistance to Gateshead is more questionable. Sunderland, sitting out on its own in the metropolitan area, seems capable of gradual, independent growth.

CHAPTER

5

Local Impact of the Eldon Square Shopping

Centre

The opening of the Eldon Square Shopping Centre in 1976 provided members of the Geography Department at Newcastle University the opportunity of conducting at close hand the first in-depth assessment of the impact of a town-centre scheme in Britain. A study was conceived with both empirical and theoretical objectives: to monitor the local and regional effects of the scheme, particularly its trading repercussions on traditional shopping streets in the central area and outlying district or sub-regional centres; and to conceptualise on the process of change resulting from the introduction of a large new planned facility in a retail setting that had previously grown up incrementally through relatively free market forces. Additional consideration was to be given to the wider environmental and social consequences of the scheme and its effects on future planning policies. A variety of papers have already been published on selected aspects of these themes, providing snap shots particularly of Eldon Square’s initial effects (see especially Davies and Bennison, 1978b). This chapter and the next take stock of a longer record of change and provide a summary of the more disparate results reported elsewhere. The study was based around a series of ‘before and after’ surveys conducted over a 4year period from January 1976 to December 1979. Since it is extremely difficult to isolate the precise effects of a new scheme from other on-going redevelopment projects and broader factors at work in the national economy, a number of different surveys were undertaken to provide several pointers to change rather than relying on the evidence of a single, large exercise. A first set of surveys was concerned with collecting data on behavioural change, a second set with evidence of change in the functions and relative health of business establishments. The collective findings of both sets of surveys were then used to assess first the economic effects of the scheme in changing patterns of trade, secondly the longer term implications for the environment and social aspects of shopping, and lastly the likely requirements from these broader trends on planning policies to be implemented in the future.

5.1.

THE

SURVEY

METHODS

The methodological framework adopted for measuring the local impact of Eldon Square is summarised in Fig. 5.1. The behavioural surveys comprised monitoring changes in pedestrian flows and the trip structure characteristics of shoppers within the central area. The number of people walking along streets is a sensitive indicator of the 62

The impact of Town Centre Shopping Schemes in Britain BEHAVIOURAL SURVEYS

Pedestrian Flows

Shopper Trip_ Structures

ESTABLISHMENT SURVEYS

, Land Use Inventories

Retailer Performance Records FIG. 5.1.

Methodology

SYNTHESIS OF EFFECTS

Streets Affected

Streets Affected

___

-----

63

FURTHER IMPLICATIONS

__ j Environmental Change

$ Social Change

Future Planning Problems

for assessing the local impact of Eldon Square.

trading potential of streets; records of specific types of stores patronised and expenditures made are a sensitive indicator of strengths and weaknesses both amongst the stores themselves and the streets on which they are located. The ‘establishment’surveys involved examining changes in retail land uses, particularly from the point of view of vacancies and re-locations of businesses, and interviews with retailers about their trading circumstances and perceptions of the effects of Eldon Square. Each of these again furnishes sensitive information about the economic health of both streets and individual store types, which are ultimately the focal points of the enquiry.

5.1 .l. Pedestrian

Counts

There are a variety of problems associated with counting the number of people moving along the streets, particularly when a consistent record is needed over a period of years. These include allowances for the diurnal and daily fluctuations of the movement, the vagaries of weather, random behaviour on the part of people, the impossibility of discriminating shoppers from other sections of the population, temporary road works etc. After considerable experimentation and attention to these factors, a set of controls were established that involved an initial 68 counting positions spread around the central area (later increased to 96 after the opening of Eldon Square), with counts taken at lo-minute intervals between 2 and 3 p.m. on Tuesdays in midFebruary and duplicates in early December. February was selected simply on the basis that the first phase of Eldon Square opened in March, 1976 and December counts were made to compare movements in a peak trading month with those in a weak one. Most of the counting positions were paired so that flows on both sides of a street could be measured. After the records were tabulated for each successive year, flow maps were constructed for comparing the aggregate patterns to be seen.

X1.2. Consumer Questionnaires Information about the structure of people’s shopping trips within the central area was obtained by interviewing randomly selected persons at terminal positions, such as car parks and bus stations, and recording the stores they had visited and purchases made.

64

Progress

in Planning

Only those people who had completed their trips were interviewed and the same interviewmg positions were taken up on each successive year with the same questionnaire applied on approximately the same date (usually the first Saturday in March). Additional survey points were incorporated after the opemng of Eldon Square, specifically in its own bus station and car parks. Total samples of approximately 1500 people were interviewed each year, yielding records of more than 3000 shop visits where purchases had been made. Purchases at thirteen most important stores (the main magnets) and the Grainger Market were specifically identified and those from all other stores were grouped in terms of their street location. A single complementary survey was conducted in December 1976 for comparative purposes.

5.1.3. Land Use Inventories Comprehensrve surveys of the principal function of each shop and related services in the central area were undertaken on an annual basis, the base month again being February. These were supplemented by 3-monthly surveys of vacant properties. Changes in use were recorded on a series of maps for comparison with the flow diagrams of changes m pedestrian flows and trip structure linkages along streets. A retrospective assessment of businesses occupying the former site of Eldon Square was also made from documentary evidence.

5.1.4. Retailer Questionnaires Additional evidence of changes in trading conditions and the extent to which these could be attributed to the effects of Eldon Square was obtained by a series of personal and postal questionnaire surveys conducted with between a quarter and third of all retailers in the central area. A first survey, prior to the opening of Eldon Square and involving a response from 118 stores, sought information about anticipated changes likely to accrue from the scheme. Two follow-up surveys were then undertaken, in July/August of 1977 and 1979 and involving sample sizes of 165 and 132, to ascertain what the actual experience of individual retailers had been. Questions were phrased in terms of whether they had experienced a growth or decline or stable position in trade over the previous year. and whether any changes had been slight, moderate or severe. Such qualitative assessments have their drawbacks, but most retailers were willing to give them while being reluctant to provide more quantitative data about their trading performance. The findings were again aggregated according to the conditions found along the individual streets and for different categories of trade.

5.2.

THE

EVIDENCE

OF

CHANGE

Most of the evidence from the various surveys indicates a two-stage set of events. First, immediately following the opening of Eldon Square, there was quite a dramatrc

The impact of Town Centre dropping Schemes in Britain

65

change in consumer behaviour within the central area with a concomitant shift in the trading circumstances of individual streets and store types. After the initial shock had been registered, however, a more quiescent period occurred when both consumers and traders adjusted more gradually to the new conditions. It is difficult to put an exact time scale on when the second stage set in, but there appeared to be acclimatisation within about a year. A more permanent adjustment to the new environment occurred most quickly in the case of consumer movement and circulation. Some stores then adapted earlier than others, in part dependent upon their location vis-ri-vis the new scheme. The most lengthy period of adaptation seems to have occurred amongst the smaller, more specialised stores in the southern part of the central area where, after three years of changed conditions, there are still signs of fairly volatile activity and uncertainty amongst traders. The story in this area is complicated by other factors at work, of course, but it is here too that the longer processes of environmental change and social use of the facilities found are still taking place. If we add to these two main stages of change the preliminary disruptions to consumer behaviour and trade that occurred during the acquisition of Eldon Square’s site and the building programme, and then the more recent evidence of a general growth in retail prosperity within the city centre as a whole, it is possible to recognise a four-step sequence to the repercussions of the scheme.

5.21. Movement and Ci$cu~ati~n The changes in patterns of movement and circulation that have occurred throughout the central area since early 1976 are summarised in Fig. 5.2. Prior to the opening of Eldon Square, most movement followed a distinct north-south alignment with the heaviest flows recorded along Northumberland Street, between Marks and Spencer and Fenwicks. Additional heavy flows were found along the northern part of Grainger Street and throughout the length of Percy Street and Newgate Street. A distinct contrast is apparent in the diagram between movement along all the principal shopping streets and those with a greater office and service role in the southern part of the central area. The diagram for pedestrian flows in 1977 shows some radical departures. Eldon Square has introduced a greater east-west avenue of movement, with the volume of flows in the northern malls being comparable with those in Northumberland Street and flows in the southern malls generally exceeding those along Grainger Street, Percy Street and Newgate Street. Flows along Northumberland Street and also Clayton Street remained relatively stable, while those along Grainger Street, Percy Street and Newgate Street declined. There was also some diminution of flows along streets in the core part of the conservation area but not along those minor access streets leading to Northumberland Street. Since 1977, the records for 1978 and 1979 show a consolidation of the new patterns of movement and circulation. Minor variations in the volume of flows along the principal shopping streets and within Eldon Square itself are indicated in Table 5.1, but the detailed figures quoted here need to be treated cautiously because of the nature of the survey method employed. Generally-speaking, however, there is clear confirmation of which particular streets have sustained the intrusive effects of Eldon Square and which JPPIJI 4

__--

-----Interpolated

-7000

-4000

per

on

hour

pm

200-300

Persons

flows

Pedestrian

/

1712176

1

FIG. 5.2.

Centre

hour

on

15/2/77

m

malls

Eldon

5000

per 500 1000 2500

on

Centre

hour

200-300 Persons -

flows pm

Pedestrlon

Pedestrian flows in the central area of Newcastle, 1976,1977 and 1979.

mEldon

per

pm

2 00-300 Persons

flows

Pedestrian ;

The Impact of Town Centre Shopping Schemes in Britain

67

TABLE 5.1. Hourly pedestrian flows along selected streets, 1976-1979 (2-3 p.m., Tuesdays in mid-February; percentage of first recorded flows in parentheses) 1976

1977

1978

1979

Clayton Street

2406 (100)

2526 (105)

2778 (115)

2646 (110)

Grainger

Street

5886 (100)

3714 (63)

3498 (59)

3474 (59)

Newgate

Street

4092 (100)

2838 (69)

3342 (82)

3030 (74)

7080 (100)

7170 (101)

7884 (111)

10388 (146)

3546 (100)

1392 (39)

1854 (52)

2064 (58)

Northumberland

Street

Percy Street

Eldon Square -

North

-

5681 (100)

5910 (104)

7086 (125)

Eldon Square -

South

-

5376 (100)

5430 (101)

6336 (118)

ones have had their shopping potential undermined. Northumberland Street and Clayton Street have retained their strength, with the former showing a progressive increase in flows and the latter a more stable position (distinctly related to the Marlborough Crescent bus station at its southern end). Grainger Street, Percy Street and Newgate Street have suffered more permanent losses, the chief factors involved being the re-location of the Bainbridge Department store from Grainger Street into Eldon Square and the barrier effect which the new scheme presents on its western side. The records on flow movements since 1977 also indicate that there has been a fairly continuous growth of trade inside Eldon Square itself.

5.2.2. Store Patronage and Expenditure The shifts in patterns of movement and circulation throughout the central area can also be traced in relation to the changes recorded in shopper trip structures. The data recorded in the shopper questionnaire surveys enabled matrices to be drawn up of the various shops and streets used and the combinations or linkages made between them. Figure 5.3 shows a generalised set of linkages that occurred during the study period, the linkages here referring to where 25% or more of shoppers patronising stores on one street then additionally patronised stores on another street. Figure 5.4 presents a similar picture for linkages between the thirteen magnet stores that were specifically identified in the surveys. The pattern of linkages in both sets of diagrams accentuates again the strong north-south linear pattern of movement that characterised shopping in the central area prior to Eldon Square’s opening. Northumberland Street was by far the most important

68

---“-__

_,

.j

,P---f

The impact

of Town Centre Shopping

Schemes

in Britain

69

70

Progress

in Planning

focus of shopping trips, drawing people to it from virtually all other streets. Significant reciprocal linkages also occurred with Grainger Street (in 21% of movements) and Grainger Market (17%), although these are not shown because of the statistical cut-off limit taken. A smaller functional region based on the market and with major links from Newgate Street (primarily from the Coop) and Clayton Street is further apparent. In the post-Eldon Square situation, Northumberland Street remains a major focus of shopping activity, but has now been joined by Eldon Square itself so that there are two main nodes of almost equal importance. These have extremely strong reciprocal linkages between them both in terms of the mails and streets and in the magnet stores found along them. The smaller sub-system to the south west has become eclipsed and the interconnections between the magnet stores concentrated over a smaller area. The chief contributor to this latter shift has been there-location of Bainbridge’s department store from Grainger Street into the new scheme. Generally-speaking, there is little difference between the patterns shown for 1977 and 1979 and there was no significant variation during the intervening year. The changes in proportions of store visits and expenditure which have accompanied these shifts are shown in Table 5.2. When Eldon Square was first opened it immediately captured almost one-third of total sales or spending within the central area. This inevitably led to marked changes in the share of trade commanded by the established stores and streets although, because Eldon Square contributed to an overall increase in retail turnover in the city centre by adding to its range of functions and stock, this did not necessarily mean an absolute decline in trade elsewhere. There were in fact mixed fortunes in experience with Northumberland Street absorbing most of the effects, but Clayton Street, Grainger Street, Newgate Street and Percy Street, together with several smaller streets in the south, exhibiting considerable reductions. The evidence of this was confirmed in the survey conducted with retailers, reported upon in a later section. The detailed figures on changes in share of the market suggest that, during the last 2 years, there has been some further growth in Northumberland Street’s position and certain stores in Eldon Square, particularly Bainbridges, have increased in strength whilst others have remained more stable. Northumberland Street’s share of visits, which had been 5 1% in 1976 prior to Eldon Square’s opening, declined to 39% in 1977 but rose slightly to 41% in 1979. Eldon Square’s share of visits (in terms of stores actually patronised) in 1979 was 30%. The overall contribution of the scheme to raising retail turnover throughout the city centre has been estimated at between 10 and 15%. Its own volume of sales in 1979 was in excess of &lo0 million.

5.2.3. Land Use Change Changes in the functional composition of shops along streets, particularly the relative growth or decline in vacancies, provide more concrete evidence of the longer term effects of changes in trading conditions. It may be too early to pass a final judgement on how far Eldon Square has contributed to major land use changes in the central area, but some significant trends have become apparent. The principal contribution to land use change, of course, took place with the actual buifding of the scheme when an area of

The Impact of Town Centre Shopping Schemes in Britain TABLE 5.2.

1977

1976

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 I7 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26

71

Changes in share of market as indicated by store visits and expenditure, 1976-1979 (All figures are percentages of total visits and expenditure recorded each year)

Bainbridges? Binns Boots* B.H.S. C&A Co-op Farnons Fenwmks Littlewoods Marks&Spencer Presto Woolworth Clayton St. Woolworth N’land St. Bigg Market Blackett St. Clayton St. Grainger M kt Grainger St. Newgate St. Northumberland St. Percy St. Pilgrim St. Westgate Rd. Other - North’ Other - South’ ELDON SQUARE

Persons interviewed Number of store visits

1978

1979

Visits

Exp.’

Visits

Exp.

Visits

Exp.

Visits

Exp.

5.3 1.6 3.0 4.1 2.7 5.4 1.3 12.6 6.2 15.1 2.8

6.7 2.2 2.4 4.6 4.3 3.6 1.7 12.9 6.9 16.6 1.3

4.8 1.4 3.5 3.3 2.5 4.2 1.0 10.0 4.8 11.7 3.5

7.7 2.3 1.7 2.6 3.1 3.1 1.0 11.9 2.6 11.0 2.0

4.3 2.6 a.9 2.5 1.8 5.3 0.7 10.8 3.8 10.9 5.0

12.0 4.4 1.3 1.6 2.6 1.8 1.4 10.6 2.0 8.3 3.2

6.3 2.5 5.1 3.1 2.3 1.9 1.0 11.4 3.7 13.2 3.2

11.3 4.5 1.3 2.0 2.6 3.2 1.0 10.3 2.1 11.9 1.8

2.0

1.4

1.7

0.9

1.6

0.3

1.8

1.0

1.2 2.3 0.9 2.8 10.8 4.3 1.2 6.1 2.8 0.9 0.9 1.4 2.3 -

0.9 1.6 0.9 3.3 6.7 5.2 1.0 8.3 2.3 1.0 1.0 1.3 1.9 -

1.7 1.8 0.7 1.1 5.8 3.0 1.4 4.9 2.8 0.8 0.9 1.1 2.3 19.3

0.4 0.8 1.4 2.1 2.9 5.8 0.8 6.8 1.2 1.4 1.2 1.5 4.0 19.8

1.4 0.9 0.8 1.8 6.1 1.9 1.0 5.8 3.2 0.4 1.3 1.5 3.2 19.5

0.5 0.5 0.7 1.8 2.1 2.2 0.6 7.4 4.0 0.4 1.5 3.0 3.0 21.7

1.6 1.7 0.8 1.6 4.5 2.2 0.8 5.8 3.6 0.9 0.6 0.9 1.4 18.3

0.7 0.5 1.3 2.4 1.7 2.8 0.6 9.3 2.1 0.8 1.3 1.1 1.2 20.3

1,668 3,246

1,470 3,193

‘Expenditures from surveys conducted rRelocated into Eldon Square. ‘North and south of Blackett Street.

in December,

1976 and February

1,534 3,197

1,471 3,254

1977.

predominantly fringe activities was replaced by highly specialised, core features of retailing. Besides the displacement of the wholesale green market, 113 retail or related service establishments were cleared away, the vast majority of which were local, independent traders. Many of the physical premises here were in an advanced state of decay, but how far this was the result of a diminished trading base and how much the result of planning blight is difficult to say. It is significant perhaps that in the new development only five independent businesses have taken up units that were originally available. The record of business closures elsewhere in the city centre since Eldon Square’s opening is reflected in Fig. 5.5 which shows the amount and distribution of vacant premises foundat 3-monthly intervals. Overall, there is a clear relationship between the impact registered on trade and the total number of vacancies that occurred. A sharp rise

72

Progress

in planning

FIG. 5.5.

Trends in vacant shop premises, 1976-1979.

in vacancies accompanied the opening of the first phase of Eldon Square in March 197 1, followed by a more steady increase during the next 15 months, reaching a peak of 69 vacancies in the late summer of 1977. Since then there has been a steady decline with only 27 vacancies being reported 2 years later. There has been considerable spatial variation in the pattern of events, however, with large number of vacancies being sustained over a long period of time in the smaller streets of the southern part of the central area and also along Pilgrim Street. Some of these premises have been empty for several years, suggesting that Eldon Square has simply made a poor trading locality even worse. On other, more major shopping streets, nevertheless, more spectacular changes can be traced directly in association with the effects of Eldon Square. The best example is Clayton Street, where an initial depletion of trading health has been overcome, partly by the maintenance of high levels of pedestrian flows and partly by a continuing growth in spending on the part of consumers. The overall fall in numbers of vacancies in recent months reflects a general revival in the shop property market where a shortage of prime sites and continuing demand from multiples has led to a greater penetration of secondary streets.

The impact of Town Centre Shacking Schemes in Britain TABLE 5.3

Retail land use changes streets

Net gains or losses Food stores Apparel stores Household stores Specialist stores Dept/variety stores Leisure services Personal services Business services Other types Total Number of changes Clayton Street Grainger Street Grey Street Newgate Street Northumberland Street Pilgrim Street Other - north Other - south Total

by business categories

and

1976-77

1977-78

1978-79

-3 -4 -8 -10 -2 +2 0 -1 -1 -27

0 -6 +2 +6’

-2 -9 -4 +10

-2 f3 0

-4 0 +1 -I -9

9 6 5 3 6 6 14 18 67

7 8 2

+3

1 3 1 15 25 62

73

4 4 2 2 3 4 12 40 71

The changes of use which have followed the re-letting of vacant premises, transfers of ownership and, in some cases, clearance of properties have led to a gradual but distinctive alteration in the character of certain streets. Overall, there has been a reduction in total numbers of retailing and related service establishments in the city centre during the study period, though most of this occurred in the year following the opening of Eldon Square. Most losses were in the apparel and household goods trade (Table 5.3), which are also those trades which have been most strongly affected by competition from Eldon Square; and most gains were made in the category of specialist shops. Clayton Street recorded the highest number of changes between 1976 and I979 with twenty changes of use, followed by eighteen in Grainger Street. Both these streets have seen a decline in major multiple stores and their replacement by smaller traders dealing in such goods as sports equipment, knitwear, cooking utensils, pets and models. There were I24 changes of use throughout the secondary shopping streets of the central area, however, the main trend here being the growth of service activities, such as fastfood establishments, restaurants and the various business services.

5.2.4. Business Performance The preliminary survey conducted with owners and managers of stores in 1976 about the expectations they had of the effect of Eldon Square provided many insights that were later to prove true and which help to explain many of the closures and changes of

74

Progress

in Planning

use referred to above. Of those multiple traders who responded, 90% anticipated some impact would be felt on their store although 75% of these thought it would be beneficial. In contrast, only 61% of independent traders expected an effect on trade, but of these 62% thought it would be deleterious. In both cases, the impact was perceived as being potentially greater on the apparel and household goods trades than on convenience or specialist activities. The results of the first survey of actual experience in trading performance after Eldon Square was opened, however, indicate that more than half of all retail businesses suffered a decline in trade (Table 5.4). In addition to the apparel and household-goods sectors being badly affected, certain specialist activities (such as jewellery) were also hurt. The generalised statistics suggest that the multiples fared worse than the independents, despite their greater optimism, but in terms of the degree of effect felt, slightly more independents than multiples experienced heavier declines in trade. The biggest losses were felt by those smaller businesses, with sales of under 21000 per week. The more recent survey conducted in the summer of 1979 shows that, 2 years later, the experience of retailers has changed considerably. Approximately 67% reported a general increase in trade during the preceding 2 years, with similar figures occurring for the individual categories of activity. The multiples appear to have made the greatest recovery, particularly those in larger shops with sales of more than slO,OOO per week, but less than a quarter of all the independents reported a decline in trade and less than a third of those in the smallest size of shops. Most retailers therefore considered the trading effects of Eldon Square to have been limited to the year or so immediately following the opening of the scheme and by its third year of operation had largely been worked out (Fig. 5.6). This is confirmed in the results to a number of questions directed to their perceptions as to what factors had accounted for their experiences in trade, which are summarised in Table 5.5. In the 1977 TABLE 5.4.

Changes in retail performance by store types and sizes, 1977 and 1979 (percentages of the sample total of stores; figures in parentheses are absolute numbers) No change 1977

Increase

Decrease

Not available

1979

1977

1979

1977

1979

1977

1979

All stores

20.8

7

23.7

66.6

54.0

19.7

1.8

6.8

Types Convemence Apparel Hbisehold Speciahst Dept/varlety

(1) 19.2 13.8 22.9 (4)

(1) 10.5 0.0 8.2 (0)

(3) 21.9 27.5 20.9 (1)

(9) 63.2 72.0 61.3 (7)

(2) 57.1 51.7 56.3 (3)

(2) 18.4 28.0 20.3 (0)

(0) 1.4 6.9 0.0 (0)

(1) 7.9 0.0 10.2 (0)

Orgamsatlon Independents Multiples

22.2 19.0

7.8 5.9

28.4 19.1

59.4 73.5

46.9 60.7

23.5 16.2

2.5 1.2

94 4.4

18.8 7.4 0.0

19.5 26.9 30.8

43.9 66.7 90.4

58.5 55.1 30.8

31.3 17.3 9.5

2.4 1.3 0.0

11.1 8.6 0.0

Size (measured f10.000

by weekly turnover) 19.5 16.7 38.5

75 Proportional change in trade by streets March 1976 to March 1977 A

Blackett

Proportional change in trade July 1977 to July 1979

FIG. 5.6.

Street

by streets

Trading changes along selected streets, 19764977

and 1977-1979,

(0) 47

10 44 (3)

48 27

24 56 63

41 50 38 36 53 31 55 8

Types Convenience Apparel

Household Specialist Dept/Variety

Orgamsation Independents Multiples

Stores with a declme in trade Slight Moderate Substantial

Streets (based on samples only) Clayton St. Grainger St. Grey St. Newgate St. N’land St. Percy St. Other -N Other -S 30 10 0 19 27 43 8 26

63 33 50

23 18

16 22 (3)

(3) 16

21

1979

66 58 63 71 50 62 64 47

59 76 94

67 60

59 58 (5)

(2) 71

63

1977

54 38 44 31 41 57 50 37

88 100 50

44 43

60 37 (2)

(6) 42

43

1979

6 18 14 0 0

5.5

58 38 71 65 54 55 44

0 0 0

55 64 63

7

0 0 0

56 54

63 52 40 (5)

(4)

54

1977

4 12 21 23 15 18 8

10 8 14

3 6

5 4 4 14

12 14

(0)

(1)

5

1979

11 14 12 (3)

13

1977

Other’

Expenditure trends

48 33 19 59 14 17 16

12

25 17 0

23 34

24 48 14 (3)

(7)

29

1979

31 54 12 43 38 8 36 19

21 56 13

23 43

38 21 31 (3)

(1)

32

1977

Other factors2

31 62 67 56 18 43 58 42

0 59 83

47 41

44 47 (3)

44

1979

‘Includes the novelty effects of the scheme, changes m land use brought about by re-locatlons and the general mcrease m trade brought to the city centrez a\ ‘2whole. etc zIncludes the effects of store management pohcres. street workmgs.

All

38

1977

Eldon Square Direct competition Pedestrian changes

Reasons given for changes in retail performance, 1977 and 1979 (percentages of the sample total of stores; figures in parentheses are absolute numbers)

Stores

TABLE 5.5.

b

< ii;

2 ~.

2; Q 2

The impact of Town Centre Shopping Schemes in Britain

77

survey, 70% of store managers or owners had attributed some effect to Eldon Square while in 1979 only 53% did. Rather than direct competition being the major influence, it was felt that changes in movement and circulation along streets had been the principal factor involved. A large number of both independent and multiple traders, however, cited the influence of other extraneous factors on their most recent trading performances, particularly the general downturn in the economy and the stagnant level of retail sales nationally (in real rather than inflated terms). Other influences on changes in trade during I977 included the effects of Metro workings in disrupting pedestrian flow movements and the beneficial effects of large numbers of Norwegian shoppers at Christmas time.

5.3.

THE

MAIN

TRADING

EFFECTS

The collective evidence of the behavioural and establishment surveys suggests a number of recurring themes among the trading effects of Eldon Square and repetitive pointers to which types of stores and streets within the central area have gained or lost as a result of the scheme. It is difficult to quantify in precise terms the overall scale and nature of the effects because of a variety of complicating factors, not least the repercussions of other on-going redevelopment projects and background trends in the national retail economy. If various assumptions and inferences are made from the survey findings, however, some broad guesses can be made about overall shifts in trade. These need to be considered in the context of a 3-year time scale, nevertheless, during which we can distinguish between a series of more adversary short term effects and a gradual weakening of these effects over the longer term.

53.1. The Short-term Effects 1. Eldon Square generated approximately E63 million of sales in its first year of trading, capturing 30% of total trade in the city centre which had itself grown by 10-l 5% as a result of the scheme. Allowing for the general growth in trade and the relocation of the large Bainbridge department store, approximately $23 million or 11% of total trade is unaccounted for which we can assume to be the local shift that took place. Our estimates suggest that net decline in all streets outside Northumberland Street was about ES million leaving No~humberland Street bearing the brunt of effects. Since NorthumberIand Street still retained 38% of total trade in the city centre after the opening of Eldon square, the effects felt were widely dissipated and relatively easily absorbed by the major fashion and variety stores. 2. While there was much compensation forthepotentialeffects ofEldon Square from the general growth in city centre trade, there was a shrinkage in both numbers of retail establishments and in the territory utilised byconsumersfortheirmainshoppingactivities. The reduction in shops occurred through the initial clearance of the site, subsequent relocations into the scheme and several closures on more peripheral streets. Allowing for the

78

Progress

in Planning

addition of new units in the scheme itself and recognising that some closures cannot be attributable to Eldon Square, there was a net loss of about 25 establishments. Against this must be set the vast gains in floorspace, probably in the order of 550,000 square feet. The contraction in consumer ‘action space’ occurred through the breakdown of traditional shopping linkages between streets, particularly between Northumberland Street and Grainger Street, and the creation of two adjacent nodes in the northern half of the city centre. 3. Those types of shops most adversely affected by the scheme were those engaged in apparel, household-goods and certain specialist-goods trade. Although the smaller multiple units incurred proportionately more losses in trade, and some of these were represented by other branches of the firm in the scheme itself, a significant number of smaller independent stores suffered. Nearly one half of all independent stores in the central area reported a decline in trade during the year following Eldon Square’s opening and of these two thirds cited changes in consumer movements and pedestrian flows (mainly resulting from the scheme) as being the principal cause. Taking into account the replacement of more than 100 independent shops on the original site by new multiples, there was a clear diminution in the overall market share and trading strength of independents and a concomitant growth amongst the multiples. 4. Apart from Northumberland Street, those streets which experienced a depletion of trade and where this could be attributed to Eldon Square were mainly concentrated in the southern half of the central area. Among the principal shopping streets affected, Grainger Street, Clayton Street, Newgate Street and parts of Percy Street fared worst. The relative scale of effects was particularly marked in the first two cases through relocations of large stores and the case histories of a few individual firms. Several secondary shopping streets in the conservation area may also be seen as casualties, although the volume of business conducted within these has always been relatively small and a number of other factors have severely affected the more marginal traders.

5.3.2. The Longer-term

Effects

1. Eldon Square and Northumberland Street continued to strengthen their dominance over all other shopping streets in the central area during 1978 and 1979 with the combined evidence of pedestrian flows and confidential data about individual store trading performances suggesting a growth in sales above the annual inflation rates. The relative prosperity of the city centre as a whole increased, however, such that rather than contributing to further shifts in trade the new scheme retained its former share of the market and there was a noticeable reduction in the scale of adverse effects felt in peripheral areas. 2. While the pattern of movement and circulation established after Eldon Square’s opening was consolidated during the subsequent 2 years, the pedestrian flow records show an overall increase in consumers along most streets and fewer retailers apportioned any decline in their trade to the effects of the scheme. The number of stores that were vacant decreased progressively through 1978 and by the end of 1979 stood at about half the number to be found at the beginning of the study period. There was

The tmpact of Town Centre Shopping Schemes in Britain

79

therefore a slight increase in stores trading throughout the central area, counteracting the net loss sustained in 1977. Although most shopping remained concentrated in the two nodes of activity in the north, additional consumers were drawn through to the south without matching the numbers that had formerly been found prior to Eldon Square’s opening. 3. Multiple stores appeared to recover more quickly from the effects of the scheme than independents but increased their general penetration of the city centre in line with national trends. The experience of the independents was highly variable, however, with far fewer changes of use and some growth in trade amongst the specialist group while others in apparel declined. Overall, more than twice as many independent shops reported an increase in trade in 1979 compared to those with a decrease. Part of the growth in multiples is attributable to an increase in business services and leisure or catering services rather than to retailing in the strict sense of this term. 4. The slight revival of trade in the southern part of the city centre was most pronounced along Clayton Street which had never suffered from much loss of pedestrian traffic but where there had been considerable changes in store patronisation resulting in several store closures. Virtually all the vacancies had been taken up by the end of the study period giving the street a new specialist character and a generally improved image. The relative decline of Grainger Street has not been so fully repaired although the movement of Binns department store into the vacated premises of Bainbridge led to some increase in its own and the street’s trading health. The most lasting effects of Eldon Square were to be found on the secondary streets of the conservation area, although there was some hint even here of a small regeneration of trade.

5.4.

ENVIRONMENTAL

AND

SOCIAL

EFFECTS

Although no systematic assessment was made in this study of the environmental and social repercussions of Eldon Square, a number of general considerations emerge from the findings on its trading effects and there has been much local speculation and comment on these issues. There are no clear-cut conclusions that can be arrived at for much of the opinion is subjective and on many individual items of concern there are both positive and negative aspects to take into account. What must be balanced, too, is the very large popular appeal of the scheme, reflected in its commercial success, with those particular deficiencies that have upset or caused problems to a relative few.

54.1. Environmental

Considerations

The sheer size of Eldon Square has made its integration into the traditional landscape difficult to achieve without some disruptive effects. These seem worse, as we have indicated, on the western side, because of the original plan intentions to use the scheme as a buffer against the traffic and pollution that would have been found with the new road system. In the heart of the scheme, howeveq there has been much controversy over

80

Progress

in P~a~njng

the partial demolition of Regency style buildings that abut the square and there is some incongruity in terms of both of the way the scheme links up with the older buildings and the way in which the square itself is deprived of much functional use by its sunken position in relation to the elevated shopping malls. On its eastern flanks, however, considerable care and attention has been taken to integrate the scheme with existing street characters. by minimising its protrusion into Northumberland Street and retaining the original facade to its frontage on Nelson Street. A further problem that has been prompted in part by the failure to realise the new road systems on the western side, as envisaged in the 1963 Development Plan, is the build up of vehicular congestion along Percy Street, where the two car parks to the scheme are located. There has been some inconsistency in planning policies here, however, which has tended to exacerbate the problem, namely the conflicting decisions to concentrate regional scale shopping facilities within the city centre (with their special attraction to car-borne shoppers from the further parts of the catchment area) and, at the same time. to curtail car-parking provision in order to channel more people into public transport use (particularly to ensure the future success of the Metro system). The problem may well be eased with the opening of Metro but the present condition is an unsatisfactory one. A third main consideration that has generated concern is the contribution that Eldon Square has made to the development of blight m commercial properties elsewhere. The chief focus of concern has been the conservation area, as we have indicated before. The findings on trends in trade during the last 3 years here, however, suggest that the overall effects of Eldon Square have been less than might have been feared. Certainly, comparison of the conditions to be found at ground level along Clayton Street, Grey Street and Collingwood Street with those in upper floors indicate that retail businesses are generally in a much healthier state than the office sector. The development of the AI1 Saints office complex appears to have had a much more serious effect in creating blight, particularly where this is defined in terms of the incidence of vacancies and a deterioration in physical appearance, and the regeneration of the conservation area as a whole will have to be worked out in terms of new office growth rather than through retail stimulation alone.

5.4.2. Social Considerations There 1s some evidence from additional consumer questionnaire surveys undertaken, and discussed in the next chapter, that EIdon Square caters to a slightly higher proportion of car-borne shoppers and middle-class sections of the population than other parts of the central area although the extremely large number of people using the scheme ensures that a wide mixture of socio-economic groups are found. There is also a general impression, not yet substantiated by surveys, that family groups and teenagers are well represented because of the nature of the stores and the safe, weather-protected environment. The attitudes of users of the scheme towards the facilities provided have been measured in two exercises sponsored by the Eldon Square Merchants’ Association, one via a market research firm (M.C.S. Ltd., 1977) and the other through their own

81 The lmpacf of Town Centre S~oppj~g Schemes in Britain Hdon News. The surveys focussed on the likes and dislikes of shoppers

local newspaper, and about one third of those interviewed in the first exercise and one half of those who responded to the self-completion questionnaires of the second reported total satisfaction to the extent that they had no dislikes whatsoever. The two main sets of criticism that were made were that the environment was too hot and the malls were too congested. Some attempt has since been made to deal with the first of these problems, but the second is more permanent and arises from the very success of the scheme. A deficiency that was not strongly voiced but which becomes apparent when one compares E!don Square with the best of covered centres elsewhere in the world is the lack of amenity spaces or areas simply for resting and congregating. There is one small ‘well’ in the scheme but this has been inadequate for the demands placed on it and is currently being renovated to allow the installation of an information centre. The scheme provides additional leisure space in a recreation centre that is incorporated above the southern malls and which in itself has been extremely successful; but this is an addendum to the main shopping area and is not directly integrated with it. Amenity and leisure spaces are lacking elsewhere in the city centre, however, and it is unfortunate that the green that demarcates the old Eldon Square has not been planned to have a greater functional use. There have been other locations that could have been left open in the past, most notably the site of the former town hall in the Cloth Market, but which have been built up as part of the redevelopment programme, Our concern here is with the diminution of the socio-cultural role of the central area as a place for meeting and relaxing in as well as being a commercial centre. Like other city centres, Newcastle is emerging as an area with distinct, segregated land use blocks, each one devoted to highly intensive activities during the daytime hours of the weekday, but providing a harsh and unattractive environment for people to simply walk through in the evenings and weekends.

5.5.

CONCLUSION

The development of an enormous shopping complex like Eldon Square, implanted in a central area with a highly traditional and largely outmoded retailing structure, could have been expected to make a dramatic impact on local trade and ultimately to lead to immense changes in the environment and social use of the city centre. In the event, while the initial shocks of the new intrusion did reverberate quite widely and profoundly through the existing streets, the scale of the impact was relatively short-lived and 3 years after its opening the resulting scars from its more adverse effects are not very marked. This is a quite unexpected outcome given the fact that the scheme itself has been so successful in commercial terms. The reasons for the rather limited and transitory effects are complex, but have to do mainly with the fact that the scheme was but part of a wider programme of redevelopment, other elements of which have perhaps had more disturbing effects, particularly the transport and office developments. At the same time, the commitment by the local authorities for both Tyne and Wear and Newcastle to curtailing competitive shopping facilities elsewhere has enabled the city centre as a whole to increase its retail trade during the period that Eldon Square made its impact on iPP141 k

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the local market. While the experience has therefore not been as debilitating as might have been the case, there are many instances of individual businesses and certain individual streets which have suffered as a result of the scheme and their demise should not be lightly dismissed. However, on balance, Eldon Square seems to have created a less deleterious legacy for the future than might have been anticipated and for large sections of the population has proved, through their own patronage, to have been a considerable benefit in providing a modern shopping resource.

CHAPTER

6

Regional Impact of the Eldon Square Shopping

Centre

The fact that Eldon Square is a regional type of shopping centre, providing mainly durable and specialist goods, means that its influence extends far beyond the city of Newcastle and county of Tyne and Wear and permeates virtually the whole of the North East. The absence of an alternative competing centre of similar size and status between Leeds and Edinburgh makes its potential territorial catchment area one of the largest in Britain. Given the traditionally strong economic links between Cumbria and the North East and the relatively limited stature of Carlisle as a shopping focus also means that it has considerable drawing power from the west. Eldon Square’s commanding presence both contributes to and is reinforced by the dominance of Newcastle’s city centre as a whole. We have shown that, although the scheme led to major shifts in the pattern of trade within the central area, the overall net losses in volume of business along the principal shopping streets were not great and have been mainly compensated for by the additional growth in sales brought by the scheme itself. If the city centre’s trade grew in real terms by lO-15% in the year following Eldon Square’s opening and by further increments during the 2 years since, however, there must have been some depletion elsewhere, either within smaller centres in the rest of the conurbation or in centres further afield, or in both. The expansion of the northern region’s population and economy over the same period has not been sufficient to compensate entirely for this growth. Our primary concern in this chapter, therefore, is with the enlargement of Newcastle’s city centre trade area, as a result of Eldon Square, and the repercussions this has had on the relative health of surrounding shopping centres. In view of the difficulty of isolating these effects from other factors at work, particularly the local influence of other new schemes in the region, our approach has again been one of looking at the collective evidence of several, different indicators of change rather than relying on the results of a single, large survey.

6.1.

THE

SURVEY

METHODS

The procedures followed, and the interrelationships between these, for assessing the regional impact of Eldon Square are summarised in Fig. 6.1. Under the heading of behavioural studies are two contrasting types of exercise, the first involving the application of a conventional retail potential model for simulating changes in shopping trips and hence the trade generated at centres, the second a set of consumer 83

84

Progress

In Planning

BEHAVIOURAL SURVEYS

Modelhng Exerctses

ESTABLISHMENT SURVEYS

) Land Use Inventories

Shopper Trip Structures

Retallrr )Performance Records

FIG. 6.1.

Methodology

SYNTHESIS OF EFFECTS

Centres Affected

Trade Affected

-----

-----

FURTHER IMPLICATIONS

3

Trade area Change

Market )Segment Change

Future Plannmg Problems

for assessing the regional impact of Eldon Square.

questionnaire surveys conducted in the central area of Newcastle to determine the origins and trip characteristics of visiting shoppers both before and after the opening of Eldon Square. The shopping model was applied only to expenditure flows in Tyne and Wear County but was expected to provide general evidence of decline in those centres closest to the city centre. The consumer questionnaire surveys were expected to show changes in trade area support over the study period and to allow comparisons to be drawn between Eldon Square’s catchment population and that for the city centre as a whole. Addltional data was collected on the source origins and expenditure of Eldon Square shoppers from cheques passed and account payments made in individual stores in the scheme. The ‘establishment’ surveys essentially followed the same format of those utilised in the local, city centre impact study. Retail land use inventories were conducted in four selected centres, considered to be potentially vulnerable to the effects of Eldon Square, and special note taken of vacancies and changes of use before and after the opening of the scheme. Retailer questionnaire surveys were also undertaken in two of these centres to monitor the record of individual business performances and to determine the extent to which retailers themselves perceived any trading effects from Eldon Square. These were complemented by records obtained from a few, large multiple firms on the trading experiences of their branch stores over a wider scatter of centres.

6.1.1. Shopping ModelInputs

The shoppmg model used was the orthodox version of the Lakshmanan-Hansen Model and was developed originally by Stan Openshaw of the Umverslty of Newcastle for Tyne and Wear County Planning Department to apply to their retail planning policies in the preparation of the Structure Plan. The full application of the model was based on estimated population and expenditure figures for 271 zones and floorspace sizes and sales for 234 centres; but m the restricted runs made for assessing the Impact of Eldon Square on durable-goods trade only, the number of centres considered was reduced to 32. In the absence of trip data and records of expenditure flows at a sufficiently refined level, the model was calibrated against assumed sales levels at centres for a base year of 1975. This meant that the model was inherently weak and little confidence could be given to its ability to predict accurately a future pattern of

The Impact

of Town Centre Shopping

Schemes

in Britain

85

expenditure flows. Comparisons were made, however, between predicted sales levels in centres for the case when Eldon Square was included in the retail structure of the county and without it, in order to adjudicate the evidence obtained in the light of other survey findings. These comparisons were made retrospectively to the year 1975 so that the further complications of differential growth rates in centres since that time would not be brought in. The results are therefore meaningful only in terms of percentage changes in trading performance and these in themselves need to be treated with much scepticism.

6.1.2. Consumer Surveys The questionnaire surveys directed to determining the trade area characteristics of the city were conducted at the same time as those surveys reported in the last chapter, concerned with movement patterns and store patronisation inside the central area. In contrast to interviewing people at the terminal points of their trips, however, the surveys here focussed on those still engaged in their trips, selected at random from along the middle of the principal shopping streets. Sample sizes of approximately 1700 were drawn each year on the same basis and on the same equivalent Saturday. The interviewing positions were extended to include Eldon Square once it was opened. The consistency in interviewing positions adopted allows for some comparison to be made not only of consumer responses between Eldon Square and the rest of the city centre but also between individual streets, although the reductions in sample sizes which then occur mean the results need to be treated with care. The additional data collected on consumer addresses and expenditures from individual stores in Eldon Square was obtained in a special exercise undertaken by ourselves for the Eldon Square Merchants’ Association. The objective here was to assess the market penetration achieved by Eldon Square by identifying those areas within the region which generated most support for the scheme and those which gave the least. The Merchants’ Association then planned to increase their advertising within those weaker areas which had a large population base and hence could be most easily tapped for increased trade. A total of 16,661 records of customers’ addresses and their expenditures from within the northern region were obtained, 10,169 of them from cheques passed and 6492 from account payments during a single week in February, 1978. A further 339 records were obtained for people living outside the region. The largest contribution to the data set came from Bainbridge’s with a substantial input also from Fenwick’s.

6.1.3. Land Use Inventories Similar types of annual land use surveys to those conducted in the local impact study were undertaken in Gateshead, Shields Road, Gosforth and West Road shopping centres. All four centres are within 2 miles of Eldon Square but were potentially vulnerable to different kinds of trading effects: Gateshead, as a regional or sub-regional shopping centre in its own right, faced most direct competition in terms of durable and specialist-goods trade; Shields Road and Gosforth, as district level centres, were subject

86

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to potential undermining of their growth prospects, the former being a traditional centre in an area that has been heavily redeveloped and has experienced population loss, the latter containing, at the time Eldon Square was opened, its own plans for a new shopping scheme; West Road an old neighbourhood shopping centre with distinctive ribbon accretions, might show more demonstrably any effects from Eldon Square on convenience-goods trade, particularly from its new supermarket, market and specialist food-goods stores. Gateshead and Shields Road centres had also been the subject of special planning studies by the District local authorities.

6.1.4. Retailer Questionnaires The same types of postal questionnaire surveys conducted with retailers in Newcastle were undertaken in Gateshead and Shields Road in the summer of 1977, yielding responses of 33 in the former case and 127 (from virtually every shop) in the latter. The Shields Road exercise was more successful because it was incorporated into a project being pursued by the District planning department with the problems and needs of the local community. Additional evidence about the perceived effects of Eldon Square on changes in trade was obtained in a complementary study by the authors into the impact of a new covered centre in North Shields (Bennison and Davies, 1979). Similar retailer questionnaires applied here in July 1978 contained questions about the extent to which Eldon Square had effected business in this more distant centre. A total of seven large multiple firms were also contacted, as has been indicated, to determine whether the effects of Eldon Square could be traced through branch store performances in a variety of locations inside and outside the conurbation.

6.2.

THE

EVIDENCE

OF

CHANGE

The scale and nature of the regional impact of Eldon Square are much more difficult to detect than those at the local level. While large numbers of people in a wide scatter of communities must have altered their shopping habits after the scheme was opened, the size of this behavioural change within any one urban area would have remained small relative to the collective movements of the population as a whole. Our suggestion that Eldon Square contributed to an overall growth in Newcastle’s city centre trade in 1977 of lO- 15% means a volume of additional durable-goods sales of about f: 19-28 million. which in itself is only between 3.0 and 4.5% of the northern region’s total durable-goods turnover (g627.6 million) for the same year. The effects will not have been dissipated evenly, however, for they will have fallen mainly on those centres with businesses most similar to those operating in Eldon Square and these vary both according to their hierarchical status and in relation to their own local market characteristics. It is the evidence of spatial variations in effects which most interests us here particularly those which occurred immediately after Eldon Square’s opening. The degree of change in effects over time is virtually impossible to quantify except in the most general of terms.

The Impact 6.2.1.

of Town Centre Shopping

Schemes

in Britain

87

The Simulated Impact

Given our concern for the spatial pattern of effects, the results of the shopping model exercises were disappointing and rather unhelpful. Errors in predicted turnovers for. centres in Tyne and Wear in 1975 compared to actual sales (as extrapolated from the Census of Distribution and in relation to the Tyne and Wear Household Shopping Survey of 1975) often exceeded 50% and in the case of Eldon Square itself there was an underestimate of 18.4% Since the absolute values in predicted turnovers could not be relied upon, reference could only be made to the percentage differences between those model outputs for when Eldon Square was included in the ‘run’ and when it was excluded. Here there was a more realistic outcome which showed that total durablegoods trade within the county (outside of the city centre) declined by 9.1% as a result of the scheme. This represented approximately $13 million of actual sales in 1975 (according to Tyne and Wear’s figures) which, when grossed up to 1977 to allow for inflation, puts it into an order of El 5 million. Compared to our own estimated regional shift in trade of about $23 million, there is the suggestion that approximately 65% of Eldon Square’s effects were absorbed within the conurbation which later evidence indicates may be about right. The way in which the model distributed this overall reduction in trade to the 32 centres in the county, however, was again rather unsatisfactory. The allocation was extremely uniform with a range in extremes of decline from only 7.9% to 10.5%. Rather surprisingly, the figures recorded for Gateshead, Gosforth and Shields Road at 10. l%, 10.2% and 10.4% respectively are not in themselves unreasonable. Gateshead, while suffering a considerable loss in trade in recent years has been affected by other major factors and the impact on its convenience-goods sector from Washington’s new centre has probably been greater than Eldon Square’s effects on durables. Gosforth and Shields Road do not have any large durable-goods sector and their relative health as centres has mainly been sustained by their convenience trade. West Road centre, without any significant durable-goods trade was not included in the shopping model exercise.

6.2.2. The Trade Area The wider regional effects of Eldon Square can be more reliably traced through the annual consumer questionnaire surveys that were conducted and the records obtained of expenditures within the scheme in 1978. The main data obtained from the questionnaire surveys is summarised in Table 6.1 and refers to the trade area for Newcastle’s city centre as a whole. The home origins of consumers are described here in terms of eight main source distinctions being drawn between the northern and southern parts of the region because of the barrier effects of the River Tyne. Newcastle, North Tyneside and South Tyneside collectively make up the county of Tyne and Wear. Generally-speaking, more than three-quarters of all city centre shoppers have come from within the county on each successive year and approximately 40% from within Newcastle itself. Since the opening of Eldon Square, however, there has been a small but

88

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TABLE 6.1.

Trip origins and characteristics

Origin place Newcastle North Tyneslde North suburbs South Tynestde South suburbs South Durham centres North North’d centres Elsewhere Travel mode Bus Tram Car Park’n’rlde Bicycle/motor Foot

bike

1976

1977

1978

1979

41.3 15.8 2.7 27 8 4.6 1.8 3.2 33

41 0 14 2 21 27.4 58 28 27 39

38.9 16.8 3.2 27.3 5.1 2.4 19 4.4

38.6 16 4 31 25.6 5.6 2.6 25 57

60.9 58 26.9

57 8 6.8 27 0 06 I.4 6.3

5b.R

55.0 5.9 30.9 I3 0.5 63

5.9 28 1 28.8 20.0 II 7 55

52 27 2 24.6 19 7 15 2

0.9 55

Expenditure f50 00

33 5 28.1 17 9

Persons

1498

Interviewed

of city centre shoppers, 1976-79

6. I

14 4

1723

5.5 29. I 14 09 62

6.9

3.6 20 5 21.4 24.4 19.0 70 lb36

pronounced reduction in the proportion of city centre shoppers attributed to these areas and a commensurate increase m those emanating from the more peripheral parts of the region. The proportional reduction from the conurbation will not, of course, mean an absolute loss of customers although there ~111 have been a substantial gain in the outer areas. The gain in numbers of people will have been accompanied by additional increases in expenditure because there 1s clear evidence of increases in expenditure with increases in distances travelled by shoppers (Table 6.2). It is not possible, from the limited data available, to distinguish how much of the outward expansion of the trade area can be directly related to the additional drawing power of Eldon Square and what part has been played by the on-going process of suburbanisation and population growth in commuter settlements. A similar mix of influences have probably been at work in the progressive changes shown for travel modes of shopping trips and expenditures made. Part of the decline in bus usage and growth in car-borne shopping over time will be explained by increased national predilections for independent travel, but part will be attributable to the special attractions of Eldon Square to the motorised shopper. LikewIse, the growth in expenditure will partly reflect small increases in purchasing power as well as the greater spending induced by Eldon Square, and both of which will be exaggerated by the effects of inflation.

The Impact TABLE 6.2

of Town Centre Shopping

Schemes

in Britain

Trip characteristics

by origin source of city centre shoppers, 1977

From Newcastle

Rest of Tyne and Wear

Outer suburbs

From elsewhere

63.2 0.7 19.4 0.8 2.1 13.7

62.5 7.0 28.1 0.6 0.8 :.0

33.3 23.2 41.3 1.4 0.7

33.8 19.4 43.8 0.6 0.6 1.9

Frequency of Visit 5-6 X a week 3-4 X a week 1-2 X a week 1-3X a week < 1 a month

14.9 16.8 50.2 15.3 2.8

6.7 5.7 50.8 26.9 9.9

1.4 1.4 25.4 37.7 34.1

4.4 1.9 18.8 30.6 44.4

Expenditure S50.00

7.5 36.5 30.4 14.3 6.4 2.4

5.0 22.7 29.0 23.0 12.8 5.8

2.9 16.7 21.7 24.6 21.0 8.7

4.4 18.1 20.0 23.1 18.8 13.1

Time spent on trip < 1 hour I- 2 hours 2 - 4 hours > 4 hours

14.0 46.0 35.2 4.8

7.5 34.1 45.1 13.2

4.3 21.0 46.4 28.3

3.1 25.6 36.9 34.4

707 41.0%

718 41.7%

138 8.0%

160 9.3%

Travel Bus Train Car Park ‘n’ rtde Bicycle/motor Foot

N

bike

89

The evidence that Eldon Square has drawn proportionately more people from the outer suburban, commuting and more distant settlements is strongly supported by the records obtained of customer addresses and expenditures from cheques passed and account payments made in the scheme. There is inevitably some degree of bias in the data collected here, simply by virtue of the fact that proportionately more members of the higher socio-economic groups purchase more goods by cheques and ‘on account’ than those from the lower social classes; but more of these people are concentrated in the outer parts of the conurbation and beyond and most of the shops in Eldon Square are oriented to a ‘middle’ and ‘upper market’ rather than the lower one. Comparison of the source origins of the cheque and account payees with those for the sample of shoppers in the city centre as a whole in 1978 do not suggest wide discrepancies, although there is higher representation in the former case of people coming from the outer rather than inner areas. In the ‘payments’ survey, 37.6% of consumers came from Newcastle compared to 39.1% in the ‘questionnaire’ survey; 38.3% came from the rest of Tyneside as opposed to 44.0%; for the conurbation’s outer suburbs, the figures were

90

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TABLE 6.3.

Highest Newcastle Other Tyne and Wear Gateshead Other Areas North’d Gosforth Whltley Bay Morpeth Other Areas Durham Durham Cltl Whlckham Sunderland Tynemouth

Highest and lowest source areas of custom for Eldon Square, 1978 % expenditure from each place Lowest 26.38 9.64 6.13 6.03 5.91 4.14 4 42 3 58 2.85 2.72 2.28 2.24

(Tow Law) Newbqgm Shddon Seaham Barnard Castle Brandon/Byshottle Amble Newburn Hartlepool Penrith Other Areas Cumb’d Hetton

0.00

0.02 0.02 0.03 0.03 0.05 0.05 0.09 0.08 0.11 0.12 0.12

respectively 10.1% and 8.3%; and from the commuting settlements and beyond, 14.0% and 8.6%. While recognising that the data therefore reflects trade area characteristics that are influenced by the spatial structure of social conditions, we can also assume that they provide a considerable indication of the penetrative power of the scheme. Certainly, the Merchants’ Association of Eldon Square itself puts much weight on the findings obtained for their objective has been to increase still further that trade generated from the more prosperous parts of the region. Those individual localities from which most customers were drawn to Eldon Square are summarised in Fig. 6.2 and the highest and lowest expenditures recorded are shown in Table 6.3. The percentage figures used here relate to the old local authority areas and hence there is no direct comparison for the case of Newcastle with the District of Newcastle used for the aggregations referred to above. Fuller details of the statistical breakdown obtained can be seen in Davies and Bennison (1978~). The main pattern that emerges from the map is that a majority of consumers come from the larger settlements in the region as one would expect. The individually highest proportions outside Newcastle and the other major nuclei of the Tyneside conurbation, however, come from the wealthier suburbs and surrounding market towns. This special penetration of the fringe belt becomes more strongly apparent when the numbers of customers and their expenditures from each locality are compared against the total population and total amount of spending available from each place. Figure 6.3 shows the pattern derived when the number of customers are related to population size; Table 6.4 shows the highest and lowest scores obtained for consumer expenditure as a proportion of the total (estimated) expenditure generated from within each town. The map shows a much reduced proportional level of support coming from such large urban areas as Sunderland, Hartlepool, Teesside and the industrial towns of south-west Durham. On the other hand, there is considerable support from such distant places as Alnwick, Hexham, Morpeth and Durham City which are all inherently strong service centres. The findings are reinforced in the table which also brings out the very high levels of market penetration achieved in the higher income suburbs of Gosforth, Whitley Bay and Whickham.

The ImpaGt of Town Centre Shipping Schemes in Britain -

91

1 Over m

2.7%

l.l-2.7% 0.6-l

.O%

0.3-0.5%

a

2

25 26 27

FIG. 6.2.

Biayabn” Boldon Brandon

”

D D and ByshottieS

”

D

Source areas of custom for EMon Square, 1978 (customers as $ of survey total for iocal authorities).

92

Progress

in Plannjng

0 46-1

6%

0 20-O

45%

0 13-o

1900

0 00-o

12%

For Key to Local Areas See Figure

FIG. 6.3.

Authority 6 2

Market penetration of Eldon Square, 1978 (customers as % of population size of heal authorities).

The Impact TABLE 6.4.

of Town Centre Shopping

Schemes

in Britain

93

Highest and lowest market penetrations by Eldon Square, 1978 % customer expenditure according to available expenditure in each place

Highest

Lowest 12.88 10.82 6.80 4.03 3.87 3.63 3.02 2.99 2.95 2.70 2.46 2.36

Other Tyne and Wear Morpeth Gosforth Durham City Whitley Bay Newcastle Prudhoe Whickham Chester-le-Street Hexham Alnwick Ryton

6.2.3.

0.00 0.02 0.03 0.04 0.04 0.06 0.07 0.09 0.14 0.20 0.22 0.23

(Tow Law) Other Areas Cumb’d Hartlepool Shildon Seaham Newbiggin Newburn Brandon/Byshottle TeessideKleveland Barnard Castle Seaton Hetton

Land Use Change

Gateshead and Gosforth both emerge from the trade area surveys as areas giving strong support to Eldon Square with the latter providing proportionately more custom than the former. In neither case, however, do the surveys of land use change suggest that the retail structure of their shopping centres has been radically altered by any loss in trade. Table 6.5 indicates only minor changes in retail uses in Gateshead between 1976 and 1979 and the number of vacancies within the town centre has actually declined in the last 2 years as a result of some improvement in the health of the Trinity shopping scheme. In Gosforth, there have been relatively more changes, but most of these have occurred as a result of clearance to make way for the new Gosforth shopping centre. These losses in trade which can be expected to have occurred within the durable-goods sector therefore appear to have been absorbed without major physical repercussions. A similar picture emerges in the cases of Shields Road and West Road centres. The support drawn for Eldon Square from the local market areas here were not separately examined in the trade area surveys but there appears to be little direct cause-and-effect

TABLE 6.5

Food Apparel Household Specialist Services Personal services Business services Other Total Net Change

Retail land use changes in selected centres, 1976-79 (net gains and losses) Gateshead

Shields Road

t2 +3 0 0 -1 -1 0 +1 +4

-2 0 -8 -1 +2 -2 +1 -I -11

Gosforth -5 +1 0 -3 0 -4 +1 0 -10

West Road +2 -I +I -1 0 +1 0 0 +2

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Progress

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relationship between Eldon Square’s influence and retail land use changes. The higher incidence of change in Shields Road is mainly due to piece-meal redevelopment.

6.2.4. Business Performance The evidence from the retailer questionnaire surveys in Gateshead, Shields Road and also North Shields confirms the general fact that Eldon Square has affected trade within each of these centres but that the scale of effect has not been debilitating, except perhaps in the case of Gateshead. In Gateshead, 39% of respondents felt Eldon Square had contributed to their trading changes in some way but 52% felt that national expenditure trends had also been involved and 33% pointed to other, more local influences. There was more volatility in trading changes in the year following Eldon Square’s opening than in the other centres, however, with 42% of the stores in Gateshead reporting a decline but 40% an increase. In Shields Road, twice as many stores reported an increase in trade compared to those experiencing a decline over the same period and only 10% of all retailers thought Eldon Square had been a factor at work. The North Shields data relates to the year 1978 rather than 1977, but here 28% of retailers felt they had been affected by Eldon Square - a higher figure than in Shields Road because of the greater size of its durable-goods sector. The difficulty of differentiating the impact of Eldon Square from other factors at work was most conspicuous when the individual records of branch store performances of selected multiple firms operating in the region were examined. Data from a total of 71 stores were made available and no clear patterns emerged when those located in the same centre were compared. For example, of five different branch stores trading in Sunderland, the percentage changes in volume of business in the year after Eldon Square’s opening were: + 0.6, + 10, + 31, + 11, + 15; in Gateshead, the same firms recorded; - 4.1, + 37, + 29, + 29, - 0.8; and in South Shields - 18.7, + 85, + 70, + 32, + 5. Commenting on the changes and providing explanations for them, one managing director suggested the following factors were of equal if not greater importance than the opening of Eldon Square: changes in local economic activity; arrival or departure of competitors in close proximity to the branches; localised interruptions to bus services and industrial disputes; management changes at some branches; some staff shortages.

6.3.

THE

MAIN

TRADING

EFFECTS

The collective evidence of the different surveys and studies on the regional impact of Eldon Square is perhaps even more difficult to synthesise than the local impact findings. There have been so many other unknown factors at work in individual areas and shopping centres that all of the statistics and viewpoints obtained must be treated with caution. The general impression gained, however, is that there have been no dramatic shifts in trade as a consequence of Eldon Square but that the scheme has simply consolidated on the dominance which Newcastle’s city centre has held for many years over durable-goods shopping in the North East. It has captured a greater share of the

The lm~act of Town Centre S~~~~ing Schemes in 8ritain

95

overall market, but this in itself has been growing in expenditure terms and hence the scheme has had a ‘vacuum’ effect, commanding a higher proportion of the additional spending to be found, rather than depleting particular places of much of their durablegoods strength. Its adverse consequencies therefore lie more in the way it has inhibited potential growth elsewhere than in causing actual major contractions in trade.

6.3.1. Trade Affected

1. Our best estimates suggest that the overall growth in city centre sales in Newcastle in 1977, following the opening of Eldon Square, amounted to 3.7% of the northern region’s total turnover on durable-goods trade. The increase of approximately f,23 million was about one-third of the sales actually generated within the scheme itself. Sixty-five per cent of this was drawn from the county of Tyne and Wear suggesting a relative decline of about 9% in durable-goods trade within the conurbation during that year. The remaining proportion of sales was obtained from a wide scatter of piaces elsewhere. 2. Eldon Square drew proportionately more customer support from outlying areas than the traditional city centre contributing to a territorial enlargement of Newcastle’s sphere of influence as well as an increase in its catchment population. Particularly high levels of support were abtained from market towns in Northumberland and higher income areas on the margins of the conurbation. The weakest sources of support were the southern parts of the region, particularly the industrial towns of south-west Durham and the metropolitan county of Cleveland. 3. The effects of the scheme on convenience-goods or food shopping within the region were negligible. The types of trade most affected were the same as those inside Newcastle’s city centre, namely the apparel, household-goods and specialist-goods categories, but there were variable experiences amongst individual businesses throughout both the conurbation and surrounding areas and losses attributable to Eldon Square were generally less than those to other local factors at work.

6.3.2. Centres AjJecied 1. Gateshead appears to be the only major centre within the conurbation that registered a significant loss of durable-goods trade as a result of Eldon Square, although even here there were few businesses which were forced into liquidation from direct competition alone. Other neighbouring centres such as Gosforth and Shields Road experienced some decline, but their smaller component of durable-goods shopping meant the consequences were not large. These and other centres within the conurbation are likely to have experienced greater repercussions on their convenience-goods trade from other new shopping developments. 2. Centres in the outlying market towns and higher income suburbs of the conurbation have probably been able to withstand the penetration of their local trade areas by Eldon Square by virtue of an increased growth in population and expenditure

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within their own communities. Our evidence is fragmentary here but the multiple retailers operating throughout the region suggested few specific effects could be recorded in such centres. 3. The limited effects of Eldon Square within individual centres suggest that the stability of the regional hierarchy has been maintained. The exception is Gateshead which, because of other debilitating influences, especially the impact of Washington New Town’s new centre, may have become reduced in stature as both Newcastle and Washington have grown. Newcastle’s pre-eminence within the region has clearly been enhanced by the development of Eldon Square with the outer limits of its trade area extending into Scotland, North Yorkshire, North Lancashire and Norway. 6.4.

CONCLUSION

The regional impact of Eldon Square bears certain similar resemblances to the local impact felt within Newcastle’s central area. In the year following its opening, it deprived the region of approximately $23 million of durable-goods sales just as it had captured the same approximate amount from within the city centre. The relative decline in durablegoods trade within the conurbation was about 9% compared to a relative decline of 11% within the traditional shopping streets of the central area. The effects were dissipated over a wide range of centres within the region, however, just as they had been over a large number of stores inside the city centre. Only one major casualty has been identified, namely Gateshead, and within the city centre there seems to have been but one major street more permanently affected, namely Grainger Street. Elsewhere within the region, the relative decline in trade appears to have been absorbed without much visible signs of physical deterioration or land use change, again as seems to have been the case, over the 3-year study period, within the city centre. In both situations, the growth within the economy in durable-goods trade, at a time when convenience or food sales are rather stagnant, has helped to alleviate the initial disruptions caused. In other respects, the regional impact appears to have been more modest than the local impact by virtue of the trading effects being spread over a large territory rather than being concentrated within one small area. So too the environmental and social implications of the scheme are barely noticeable while its presence within the city centre inevitably influences one’s perception of its local repercussions. Other changes to the structure of trade and individual store performance within centres outside of Newcastle play a more conspicuous role in minimising the effects of Eldon Square, particularly the influence of other new shopping schemes. The most conspicuous feature of the regional impact in fact seems to lie not so much within the region itself as in the enhanced use of the city centre by visitors from outside.

CHAPTER

Summary

7

and Conclusions

This study has sought to fill two large voids in the literature on modern retail resources: first, to provide a comprehensive account of the development, characteristics and general effects of town centre shopping schemes; secondly, by references to redevelopment programmes in Tyne and Wear and the specific case of the Eldon Square Centre in Newcastle upon Tyne, to examine in some detail the trading repercussions that follow from the introduction of a large new scheme. Given that the two parts to the work rest primarily on two different sets of surveys, which have themselves been experimental in nature, there will inevitably be certain weaknesses and omissions in the materials covered and perhaps undue emphasis given to those topics for which richer data were obtained. We make no apology for these on grounds that we hope we have initiated two avenues of research which will subsequently be enlarged upon, modiiied and improved. Like other exploratory research treatises we have also probably raised as many questions as we have answered. The questions are particularly orientated towards the future and relate to the considerations of how far can we expect recent trends in development to continue into the 1980s and what lessons can planners and other professional bodies learn from the forms of impact we have described? We will not attempt to speculate on these but will identify them in the synoptic review that follows in hopes of raising a challenge to others.

7.1.

CHAPTER

1

The first chapter was concerned with discussing the background role of planning philosophies in the post-war period in determining the concentration of new shopping schemes in traditional town centre locations, the rapid rise in development of new schemes during the last 15 years and the decision-making process that is involved in their establishment. Most new schemes in Britain have been related in some way to broad planning concepts about commercial redevelopment and in recent years the local authority has become an active partner in their development. The record of growth shows that over 50 million square feet of new retail floorspace has been contributed since 1965 and the number of schemes currently under construction or on the drawing board suggests further massive additions will come in the next 2-3 years. However, with the recent downturn in the economy, the introduction of government cutbacks on locai 97

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authority expenditure, and the concern over future energy costs (which can affect centres both directly, through increased service charges, and indirectly, through changes in consumer behaviour), one wonders how long this momentum can be sustained? There must also be some concern that the best of available sites have now been occupied and that a degree of saturation of new shopping centres has set in. Looking at the longer term, too, it seems reasonable to expect some major retail innovation before the end of the next decade, perhaps linked to computerised remote shopping systems. For all these various reasons, the mid-1980s may well mark a watershed in the evolution of shopping centres, much as the mid-1960s did and the early years of the 1950s before them.

7.2.

CHAPTER

2

The second chapter indicated that, despite the similar attitudes prevailing between local authorities and private developers, inordinate delays have often occurred between the initial conception of a new scheme and its final completion. Much of this has to do with the problems of acquiring the site, and these problems have themselves become more difficult over time as schemes have become progressively larger. Commensurate with the growth in size has been the trend for more schemes to be covered or enclosed, for fewer business services and housing units to be accommodated, for more investment and sensitivity to be put into the built form and design, and for more schemes to end up being very sound commercial operations. While the most modern schemes may look better and function more efficiently than their earlier counterparts, however, they provide an increasingly stereotyped range of facilities with few social diversions or opportunities to use the centre for other than shopping purposes. The most important question facing prospective shopping centre recipients in the future must surely be whether they want a wholly retail-based scheme, which will carry with it more certainty of financial success, or whether they are prepared to risk the more variable outcome that would be associated with a multi-purpose scheme but which will otherwise improve the amenities of the town? In each case, our brief attempts to discriminate between shopping centres and classify them into types suggest the precise location and accessibility conditions pertaining to a site are critical considerations in determining their ultimate success.

7.3.

CHAPTER

3

The third chapter examined the various forms of impact which new town-centre shopping schemes can have, the framework adopted here largely following that developed from studies of outlying developments but with the nature of effects modified to suit the ‘in-town’ case. Both the positive and negative aspects of their effects were considered but these were partly hypothetical in the absence of research evidence to draw upon. More detailed discussion was given of certain problem areas for which information had been obtained from the questionnaire survey conducted with District Planning Officers. In terms of economic effects, emphasis was put on the retail

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displacements (particularly of smaller businesses) from sites occupied by new schemes and the re-locations that occur from surrounding shopping streets. In addition, the shifts in trading patterns that follow the opening of a new scheme were reported on, with 80% of cases cited by planning officers having led to some shift but in the majority of instances the scale of this was considered to be only slight. On the environmental theme, attention was given to the visual intrusiveness of schemes, particularly their monolithic structures and inward-looking design, and the contribution they make to blight and congestion on surrounding streets, although most survey respondents again suggested this was small. Social effects were treated primarily from the point of view of the growth of monopoly powers, both on the part of multiple retailers within the town centre as a whole and local authorities as landlords of property, and also in the context of the lack of amenities provided, especially amenity space as an area for people simply to congregate, meet or relax in. It is perhaps the environmental and social issues that are most important here, particularly the question of what legacy will the new schemes leave for the later years of the century when shopping can be visualised as being extensively computerised but when more people will also have much greater leisure time than is presently found. In the shorter-term, however, some researcher might like to quantify in more detailed terms than has so far been done, the relative costs and benefits involved in individual new schemes.

1.4.

CHAPTER

4

Chapter 4 described the background setting against which the new shopping schemes have been introduced into Tyne and Wear, an area which demonstrates some of the best and worst examples of shopping centre development in the country and where there has been a continuing programme of development throughout the last 15 years. Special attention was given to three of the largest schemes in the metropolitan county: the Eldon Square Centre in Newcastle, the Market Square Precinct in Sunderland and the Trinity Centre in Gateshead. The first two cases constitute successful schemes and have consolidated the position held by Newcastle and Sunderland at the top of the regional hierarchy of town centres; the third has been a distinctive failure and has contributed to a relative decline in Gateshead’s overall status vis-d-vis other sub-regional centres in the conurbation. Generally-speaking, new town centre shopping schemes do intensify the traditional hierarchical structure found within areas rather than changing them as is more likely to occur with the development of outlying facilities. The question that remains unanswered, however, is whether new ‘in-town’ schemes provide a separate sub-system of activity within the general hierarchy that reflects particularly on a differential consumer use relative to other parts of the town centre. The case study of Eldon Square and its use relative to other parts of the central area of Newcastle rather suggests that they do but the evidence is inconclusive and the research reported upon in the next two chapters was not directed to this specific end.

100 7.5.

Progress in Planning CHAPTER

5

Chapter 5 is the largest individual section within the monograph treating in some detail the local effects of the Eldon Square Shopping Centre as these have been recorded over a 4-year period from several ‘before and after’ surveys. The surveys comprised pedestrian counts along streets, questionnaires conducted with both consumers and retailers and land use inventories. It was felt the collective evidence from several indicators of change would provide a better basis from which to isolate the specific effects of the scheme from other factors at work than reliance on a single set of criteria examined in more depth. The year following the scheme’s opening in 1976 exhibited some quite dramatic shifts in trade, with Eldon Square itself capturing almost one third of total city centre sales and leading to a loss of approximately g5 million in surrounding shopping streets. The main brunt of the trading impact was sustained by the variety and fashion stores of Northumberland Street (the traditional high street), however, which were able to withstand the new competition by virtue of an overall increase in consumer spending within the city centre, induced by the additional attractions of Eldon Square. Those streets initially most adversely affected included Grainger Street, Clayton Street, Percy Street and Newgate Street and a number of minor streets in the southern half of the city centre, which fall within a conservation area. Within these streets, it was particularly the apparel, household goods and specialist retailers that suffered the greatest losses in trade. The last two years, nevertheless, have seen a marked improvement in the trading circumstances of retailers within the more peripheral locations suggesting that a rapid recovery has taken place. This has been made possible by a progressive increase in the size of the trade area commanded by the city centre and a continuing pressure for new sites from a wide cross-section of the retailing community. Over a relatively short period of time, therefore, the impact created by an extremely large scheme seems to have been comfortably accommodated without too much permanent damage to the traditional structure of trade. This remarkable record of events will need to be compared against the experiences found in other towns and cities, however, before any general applicability can be discerned. We have ourselves made a similar study of the trading impact of the North Shields Centre (a district-equivalent centre orientated more towards convenience-goods trade rather than fashions and durables) and the first year results suggest an even greater shift in trade than occurred in the case of Eldon Square. The medium and longer-term trends have yet to be monitored but we suspect that there will be less general revival in those areas currently affected than has been found in Newcastle.

7.6.

CHAPTER

6

The last chapter deals with the wider regional impact of Eldon Square, again primarily from the point of view of its trading effects and using the collective evidence of several surveys of a similar nature to those employed in the local study. The difficulties of separating the specific effects of the scheme from other factors at work were even

The Impact

of Town Centre Shopping

Schemes

in Britain

101

more acute than within the central area of Newcastle and on a comparative basis most retailers interviewed felt the impact of the scheme was less influential on their trading performance than other changes that had taken place within their immediate environment. The average estimated decline in durable-goods trade occurred in centres within the conurbation was 9% but, given that most of these centres are primarily important for the convenience-goods trade, the losses affected a small number of individual retailers rather than the relative health of the centres as a whole. The main exception was Gateshead which experienced a considerable depletion of trade and which had already suffered other adverse effects from its own central area redevelopment programme and the new competition of Washington New Town’s town centre scheme. Relatively high levels of customer support for Eldon Square are drawn from the outlying commuter settlements of the region, particularly the surrounding market towns, but any competition in trade experienced here has generally been offset by the indigenous growth of their own local markets. What was not identified and explored in this work, mainly because of time constraints, was the questions of how far Eldon Square may have affected other new schemes in the metropolitan county in ways different from those on traditional shopping areas. Given that there is greater similarity in tenant structures between new schemes than between any one scheme and surrounding traditional centres, one might anticipate some duplicity in functions amongst them with new large schemes supplanting the attractions of older, smaller ones and, at the least, inhibiting their growth. The findings regarding both the local and regional impact of Eldon Square suggest that new shopping schemes have far less adverse consequences on existing patterns of trade then ensue from similar-sized developments located on the outskirts of towns. The individual case reported upon here is a regional-level centre implanted into the heart of a large metropolitan area; but an alternative siting, say in a mid-way position between Newcastle and Sunderland, could have quite radical effects on the health of both these places and surrounding centres as well. The results of the exercise therefore give much support to the basic wisdom of concentrating new large-scale shopping resources within existing town centres. This does not negate the desirability of decentralising other types of retailing activities, particularly smaller-scale convenience-goods trade; nor does it imply that local authorities should continue to actively encourage the further development of large new shopping schemes within their central areas. Considerable attention in the future needs to be given to achieving a spatial balance in modern resources without excessive duplication of facilities and scope retained to allow for new retail innovations. A similar cautionary approach should be adopted towards the exercise of development controls over the spatial structure of retailing activities at the local level. Newcastle’s City Planning Department has had some success in revitalising trade along hitherto declining shopping streets, most notably Clayton Street, by restricting the penetration of business services along them and attracting smaller, specialist retailers to take up units with relatively low rents. The danger here is that a discriminatory policy arises which is much like the controls exerted by private development companies over the tenant mix contained in their schemes. In both cases, sections of a city centre can be given over to uniform types of land use provisions and the old mix of activities which

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make, for example, market towns such enjoyable places to visit, is diminished. Rather than a rigid set of constraints being imposed on prospective occupiers of either new schemes or traditional streets one would like to see more flexible policies being applied that require minimum allocations of services and other non-retail activities, the precise thresholds to be determined according to what is already found.

References AMERY, C. (1976) Brunel Centre, Swindon, ArchitecturalReview, 160, 146-155. BENNISON, D. J. and DAVIES, R. L. (1979) The impact of the North Shields Shopping Centre, Univ. of Newcastle upon Tyne. Dept. of Geography, Seminar Paper No. 36. BROWNE, K. and BOYES-WATSON, M. (1977) Fill-in.. . in-fill in historic towns, Millburngate Centre, Durham, ArchitecturalReview. 161, 103-118. BUTLER, P. (1976) A study of local shopping in Newcastle upon Tyne, in P. Jones and R. Oliphant (ed.), Local Shops: problems andprospects. U.R.P. I., Reading. COHEN, Y. S. (1972) Diffusion of an innovation in an urban system: the spread of planned regional shoppmg centres in the United States, Univ. of Chicago. Dept. of Geography. Research Paper No. 140. CRAWFORD, R. M. M. and WISHART, D. (1967) A rapid multivariate method for the detection and classification of groups of ecologically related species, Journal of Ecology, 55,505-524. DAVIES, R. L. (ed.) (1979) Retoilplonning in the European Communtty, Saxon House, Farnborough. DAVIES, R. L. and BENNISON, D. J. (1978a) The planning repercussions of in-town shopping schemes, Estates Gozetfe, 246, 117-121. DAVIES, R. L. and BENNISON, D. J. (1978b) The Eldon Square RegionalShopping Centre: thefirst eighteen months, R.P.A., Corbridge. DAVIES, R. L. and BENNISON, D. J. (1978c) The morketpenetrotion of the Eldon Squore Shopping Centre. mim. report to the Eldon Square Merchants’ Association. DAVIES, R. L. and BENNISON, D. J. (1979) British Town Centre Shopping Schemes: ostotistrcol digest, U.R.P.I., Reading. DAWSON, J. A. and KIRBY, D. A. (1979) Smallscole retailing in the U.K.. Saxon House, Farnborough. EXETER CITY PLANNING DEPARTMENT (1977) GuildhollShoppmg Survey, mim., Exeter. GRUEN, V. (1973) Centres for the urbon environment. Van Nostrand, New York. HILLIER PARKER (1979) British Shopping Developments, Hillier Parker, London. LEE, M. and KENT, E. (1976) Planning inquiry study, Donoldsons Research Report, No. 3. London. LEE, M. and KENT, E. (1978) Planning inquiry study 2, Donaldsons Research Report No. 5, London. MARRIOTT, 0. (1967) The Property Boom, Hamilton, London. M.C.S. LTD. (1977) Research Report - Centre Usage, mim. report to Eldon Square Merchants’ Association. NELSON, R. L. (1958) The selection of retoil locottons. Dodge. SCHILLER, R. (1975) The impact of new shopping schemes on shops in historic streets, The Planner, 61,367-369. SCHILLER, R. and LAMBERT, S. (1977) The quantity of major shopping development in Britain since 1965, Estotes Gazette, 242,359-363. SCOTTISH DEVELOPMENT OFFICE (1979) The import of large retail outlets on potrerns of retailing. Edinburgh. SHEPPARD, E. S. (1976) On the diffusion of shopping centre construction in Canada, Conodlon Geographer 20,187-198. SMITH, D. (1978) The rape of St. Albans, Vole, May 1978, p. 12. THOMAS, C. J. (1978) Reroll change in South Wales - with special reference ro redevelopment in small town centres, R.P.A., Corbridge. THORPE, D. and RHODES, T. 0. (1966) The shopping centres of the Tyneside urban region and large scale grocery retailmg, Economic Geography. 42.52-73. 103

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TYNE AND WEAR COUNTY COUNCIL, (1977) Survey ofrhoppingparrerns m 7)~ and Wear 1975. Tyne and Wear. U.R.P.I. (1979) Consumer retad expenditure: recent trends, Informatmn Brief; 79/2. WILLIAMS, W. T and LAMBERT, J. M. (1959) Multivariate methods in plant ecology association analysis m plant communities. JournalofEcologr: 47,83-101. WILLIAMS. W. T., LAMBERT. J. M. and LANCE, G N. (1966) Multivariate methods m plant ecology. Stmilarity analyses and rnformation - analysrs, Journa/ofEco/ogy, 54,427-445. WISHART. D. (1979) C/wan IA UserMunua/, Computmg Laboratory, Unw of St. Andrew. WRIGHT, L. (1973) Shopping the environment, Archr/ec/ura/Revrew. 153, 169-186

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