- Email: [email protected]
The Information Revolution and its Societal Implications
Copyright IFAC Systems Approach to Appropriate Technology Transfer. \'ienna . Austria 1983
THE INFORMATION REVOLUTION AND ITS SOCIETAL IMPLICA TIONS
J.
Baal-Schem
InterdisClphnary Cent er for Technological Analysis and Forecasting, Tel·Avlv University, Tel·Aviv, Israel
Abstract. The most salient technological phenomenon of the 80's arises from the interweaving of dramatic developments in micro-computer technology with great achievements in telecommunications . As all great revolutions in history, the Information Revolutior. will have its repercussions in almost every aspect of our future life. Fundamental economical, political and social changes will occur both locally and around the world. In Less Developed Countries, the availability of adequate information systems is essential to economic and social development and therefore the provision of information services should be treated as part of investment in human capital. Keywords. Communication computers applications; Computer-aided instruction; Information systems; Microprocessors; Rural development; Technological forecasting; Telecommunication; Telemedicine. INTRODUCTION
THE TECHNOLOGICAL DEVELOPMENT
The introduction of microelectronic capabilities into the home, classroom, factory and office and the possibilities to communicate instantaneousely through satellites, optical fibers and other means from any place to any part of the world, are initiating a new era. Many countries are already in the midst of a vast transformation from an Industrial Society into an Informationrich Society. The exchange of information and the creation and transfer of knowledge have already become critical factors in economic growth, rather than the accelerated consumption of natural resources. The possibilities for providing timely and appropriate information to any location might become an important factor in the economic and social development of Less Developed Countries and Rural areas.
The advent of the Societal changes to be described later, stems mainly from a specific technological innovation: the creation of the first transistor by the Nobel-prize winning team of Shockley, Bardeen and Brattain of Bell Laboratories, in 1947. This historical development in electronics was based upon a systematic theoretical and experimental effort directed towards the use of semiconductors. The creation of the first transistor was a cornerstone in technology, but the real unpredicted breakthrough was the surge of solid state technology which revolutionized the computer industry, the key factor being an increasing ability to install logical functions on a single chip. The number of components that can be put on a silicon chip increased by a factor of 100 in the last half of the 1970's. Tens of thousand transistor-like components can fit on a chip and in several years the number of components on a chip may grow to 100,000 and above. Computer circuitry that in 1955 cost 1 Million dollars can be bought today for about one 1955 dollar and the rate of reduction in price is expected to continue through this decade. The computers of the 1990's will operate 10 times faster than today and we will therefore witness in the next decade a thousand-fold increase in capabilities together with a hundred-fold decrease in price.
Besides analyzing the technological developments and the applications forecast for the near future in the developed countries, this paper looks at the availability of communications in developing countries and on possible societal implications of providing computer-communications technologies to developing countries. This paper stipulates that by analyzing cautiously the possible interactions of the new technologies with society on the personal and national level, the advent of the Information Revolution during the 1980's can become a cause for optimism rather than for alarm.
At the beginning of the 70's, semiconductor
165
166
J. Baal-Schem
technology reached a point at which it became practical to build a complete small computer on one or two silicon chips. The Microprocessor, resulting from combining this microcomputer with appropriate memories of similar size, is capable of performing a very wide variety of high speed control or computational functions. The enormous advances in integrated chip technology have combined in recent years with major advances in communication technology to create a Computer-Communication environment - sometimes called Compunications - that promises to have major commercial and social impacts. The use of digital transmission, by which voice or TV waveforms are transformed into binary digits (or bits), allows the use of digital computer type equipment for the modulation, multiplexing and switching of trafic and enables voice and video traffic to flow along the same transmission channels used by computers . Long-haul telecommunication possibilities have developed enormously since the initial appearance of Communication Satellites, in the late sixties. In one decade, we have witnessed a 10-fold increase in satellite's communication capacity, a lOO-fold increase in their effective radiated power and a roughly lOO-fold decrease in costs. More than hundred communication satellites orbiting now the world are only the forerunners for additional high-power satellites with multi-spot beams launched to communicate directly with low-cost earth stations on the top of business and residential buildings. In terrestrial communications, optical fibers provide an enormous information carrying capacity (of up to 150 simultaneous channels in parallel) at a cost comparable to that of the conventional copper wire pairs used for telephones . The use of these fine fibers of optical material, transmitting information on light beams at a frequency 10,000 times higher than the highest frequency used in electronic communication, promises to further lower the cost of information transmission, in which a fourfold reduction in cost per circuit has been achieved in the past 25 years. In an era of extensive u s e of basic resources, telecommunications are unique among technologies in their minimum demand upon the material and energy resources of nature. Throughout its history - particularly in the past centur)' - it has found ways to increase its message handling capacity and reduce the unit costs by engineering developments. The cost of individual messages has continually decreased and the available media would be wasted rather than consumed if not used.
Moreover, as stated by John and Magda ~kHale (1978): "Communications and their organizational and resource capacities are not depletive but cumulative in use . They do not lose in value or amount by wider distribution, access, participation and sharing T they can only gain." THE COMPUNICATIO NS E'lVIRO\'l-1E"lT The advent of the technological breakthroughs in telecommunications and computers discussed earlier is changing our entire environment. In the terms of Daniel Bell's shift hypothesis (~kHale 1976): "A Pre-Industrial society is essentially based upon raw materials. An Industrial society is organized primarily around energy and the use of energy for the productivity of goods. A Post-Industrial society is organized around information and the utilisation of information." The most salient phenomenon of the 1980's will be the gradual transformation of most western societies into post-industrial information societies. The past few years have demonstrated the usefulness of computers in all types of business. Banks, offices, retail stores and industry make today extensive use of computing and the possibility to interconnect computers from different locations into computer networks has opened new applications for travel reservation system s , inventory control systems, banking services, etc. In the industrial plant, microprocessors are already incorporated i n Numerical Control machines, but the most revolutionary step is still to come. Thi s is the wide use of industrial robots to perform varied mechanical tasks. Specialized robots that can automaticall y perform man y assembly, material handling and in s pection tasks ar e already availabl e and used in some countries. Future dev e lopments in robot's ab i lity to acquire and realize s ensory information will lead to "automatic factories" planned for processing raw material into finished goods . In the office, computer driven word processors with television-lik e displa y screens have alread y raised text editing efficiency. But they are only the fir s t s tep towards integrated office systems. According to a recent research conducted in the U.S., the cost of printing, ma i ling, handling and filing of a one-page letter might reach in some cases up to 18 U, S. dollars. As clerical work is labor-intensive and wages are continuously ascending, a more extensive use of computers and telecommunication technologies in all steps of office information transfer might be of great economical value (Ulrich, 1980).
167
The Information Revolution and its Societal Implications The future "automated office", using computer tools (inclusive voice operated computer terminals) will enable to gather, retrieve, analyze, communicate, organize, transform, generate, modify and file information of all sort. One of such systems already in operation provides among other applications a Calendar Management system to set meetings for its users. Other systems use "voicemail" to convey verbal messages by use of "mail boxes" similar to those used for written messages transmitted by computers. While Electronic mail enables paperless distribution of mail and the possibility to read the mail at appropriate location and time, computer-conferencing facilitates the holding of conference without displacing the participants and non-interfering in their time-table. Problems to be discussed are entered into the data-base and each participant " is requested to read at his convenience the subjects on his screen and to add his comments. Participant s may decide whether a comment should be available to all other participants or to the chairman alone. companies do already save in travel costs and in energy waste by organizing video-conferences, involving participants from different sites or even different countries. In such conferences, the voices and pictures of people in discussion travel between different places by Television channels. Participants sit in front of a TV monitor in an office or a studio in the vicinity of their office, watch the other participants on the screen and talk to them through the telecommunication link. ~tany
In the payments for good s and services an extensive us e of credit cards has been noted during recent year s . But checks and credit cards still require an extensive amount of paper handling and therefore a trend towards electronic fund tran s fer is predicted for the near future. One of the possibilities (already experimental in France) is an electronically loaded card, i nc luding a microprocessor. By introducing this card into the point-of-sale terminal and adding the consumer's personal code, an adequate electronic transfer of fund s i s made and registered in a magnetic ca s sette presented afterwards by the store to the bank. But the most impressive change in our personal environment s temming from the information revolution w"ill be in home computing. It is expected that within the 80's most homes \\"ill contain at least one computer whether a "hidden" computer, controll ing one or several of the home appliances or a personal computer operated by the owner. In a report prepared b y a committee for the \ational Academy of Sciences in \Iashington (1978), a home integrated communications and information system is foreseen, compri:ing of 4 computerized subsystems. This system may give an idea of conceivable applications foreseen for the home in the end of the current decade.
A wide variety of useful information services will be delivered via home computer terminal connected to the telephone line. Those services - condensed under the name of Viewdata - will provide anything from encyclopedias or libraries of relatively fixed information to highly dynamic information on current news, market conditions, supermarkets specials, games and want ads. Hundred of thousands of pages of useful, highly organized information are already accessible to the subscribers of existing systems in U.K., France, Japan and other countries, through their telephone line, home computers and attached displays. Viewdata requires a telephone line and a suitable modified TV set to access a data bank. The TV set can be a standard domestic receiver to which a special adaptor is connected or alternatively a purpose-built viewdata set. With the development of optical fibers, the telephone line might be replaced by an optical fiber connection between the home and the data base. By adding a microphone and a camera to the keyboard and TV set already available at the subscriber premises, a twoway interactive communication system is set between the cent er and the subscriber's home, permitting a wide variety of services. These services will include: TV re-transmission (as in regular cable television systems), TV studio broadcasting with subscriber's participation from his home, Video request services and still picture services. Through its wideband optical fiber communication facilities, the interactive system enables the subscriber to call-up information stored in a microfiche facility at the center - as reports, books, etc. He can access a video cassette library to see when suitable for him - any prerecorded program or access such data as local weather, utility breakdowns, on-duty doctors in the area and traffic information. He might even participate from his living-room on town-hall meetings and on polls among viewers. CO~NU'HCATIO~S
I~
DEVELOPING
COU~HRIES
of the foregoing discussion is mainly applicable to the developed countries, while developing countries are still severely disadvantaged in telecommunication systems.
~ost
Telephone density is a useful indicator of telecommunication services' penetration in a country. According to the International Communication Union (1977), the telephone densi ty in South "- \merica as of January 1, 1977 was of 4.5 telephones per 100 inhabitants, compared to 70.7 in ~orth America and 14.5 in the whole world. In addition to the low density of telephones
J 68
J. Baal-Schem
in developing countries, the distribution of these telephones inside the country is different from the distribution in developed countries. The density of telephones in Sweden in 1963 was 65.6 in major cities and 35.1 in the rest of the country. In the same year, the density of telephones in Greece was 9.6 in major cities and 0.9 in the rest of the countries and in Mexico the densities were 5.1 and 0.5 accordingly (Lonnstrom, 1967). In many cases, when telecommunication facilities are provided to a developing country, they are implemented mainly in urban areas for industry, business and residential uses. In rural areas, the costs of providing telecommunication services are much higher and the effective demand seems to be lower. Although the economic viability of providing telecommunications to rural areas is low at first sight, the social benefits to the developing society should also be assessed during the planning phase. Moreover, Parker (1978) has proved that at some times the effective use - and economic value - of these rural systems is greatly underestimated during the pI anning st age. The provision of telephone lines is only one facet of telecommunications and of computercommunication systems. Effective data bases including specific information relevant to the special needs of developing areas should be installed and an easy access to these data bases should be provided. Development planning of telecommunication and computer infrastructure should be based on the system approach and on the analysis of the information and services required for the thorough development of the area (Clippinger, 1980). Only after information services requirements have been stated, the actual planning for gradual implementation of technological s ystems can be initiated. SOCIAL IMPLICATIONS ON DEVELOPI NG COU NTRIES Adequate information systems and communication channels are essential to the economic and social development of countries. Furthermore, one should consider with great attention possible implications of these technologies on society, with a special emphasis to developing countries, as the implementation of appropriate telecommunication services in these countries might be deci s ive in their development. One of the main advantages provided by modern computer-communication means is the possibility to use midlevel personnel in the remote areas with adequate guidance by specialists located at central points (Parker, 1978). In developing countries, where specialised personnel - in all professions - is scarce and where the population is often dispersed over a large area, the use of computer-communication services might be of great importance .
The two areas of impact to be discussed further - education and medicine - are only examples for the broad fields of applications one can view for the "technotronic age" (as it has been called by Zbigniev Brzezinski). By raising the educational level of a developing society and by providing high level health care to the population, great societal changes can be achieved . In addition to these, the implementation of an appropriate telecommunications infrastructure can assist in the provision of public services, in industrial and commercial services and also in residential services - in order to improve the quality of life in these developing areas. Educational Services The Information Revolution will impact twofolds on education : it will provide for new educational tools and it will require changes in the content of education . Experience in developed and developing countries has demonstrated the advantages of using telecommunications to augment normal educational facilities and to provide for specialized instruction (Carpenter, 1978). This is especially true for rural communities where in addition to enable enrichment of regular educational activities, the use of telecommunications can make university level and vocational training available to groups of students which otherwise might not have the opportunity to receive such education . Special computer-based educational delivery systems (as the CDC PLATO system) are designed for individualized and distributive education in an interactive environment. The principle vehicle through which users interact with the computer is the terminal. Terminals are connected to site controllers (up to 32 terminals to each controller) via either ordinary telephone lines (dial-up or dedicated line) or directly (hard-wired) via twisted pairs of wires. The site controller processes two way digital data between the terminals and the computer interface unit, also via ordinary phone line or by hard wired communication . However communication from the computer interface unit to the site controllers (up to 32) can be via TV cable, hard-wired or open-air broadcast. The computer interface unit is connected to the central computer by a coaxial cable. In a developing community where the demand for specialized personnel in many different fields requires re-training of manpower, the availability of advanced or specialized technical and professional training through telecommunications might be of tremendous help. Telecommunications introduce a means for delivering educational services to individuals in their homes, at convenient times and at a pace in keeping with their ability. In an era where continuing education for adults is of paramount importance, the
The Information Revolution and its Societal Implications availability of educational programs over telecommunication channels can contribute widely in making developing areas more attractive places to live.
169
INTERACTIONS WITH SOCIETY Is this view of the impact of the Information revolution on society a cause for Alarm or Optimism?
Health Care Great benefits from the development of computers and communications are to be expected in the field of health care (Allan, 1976). Microelectronics have already permitted the development of heart pace-makers and other sophisticated medical equipment. In the next decade Telemedicine will use telecommunications to facilitate health care delivery over large distances. A research by the Smith, Kline and French Laboratories predicts that the doctor of the future "will make extensive use of motellike, para-hospitals for care of ambulatory or convalescent patients and of regional medical centers for the treatment of serious ill patients or patients with rarer diseases." A typical telemedicine system (Rockoff, 1975) consists of neighborhood clinics connected to doctors' offices or a community hospital. The doctors and the hospital are interconnected to a medical center. All the connections are wide-band video communication links enabling tow-way transmission of voice and oneway transmission (from the clinic to the hospital) of television. One of the "neighborhood clinics" might be installed in a van, visiting periodically each of a group of communities to deliver health care. The telemedicine concept is based on the assumption that the remote stations will be staffed by midlevel or new health practitioners while the experienced physicians will be available at the central medical facilities. The physician can view and diagnose the patient via the interactive voice and television channel and prescribe treatment to the health practitioner at the patient's side. Such systems might improve healthcare delivery to rural areas or even intercity ghetto-areas where medic~l resources are often inadequate, especially in less developed countries where population is spread all over large areas and medical personnel are scarce. diagnosis will also be computer-assisted. Employing Artificial Intelligence methods, automatic consulting systems have already been built that can diagnose diseases or advise physicians on the appropriate antibiotic for the treatment of patients with bacterial infection, as the MYCIN system does. ~ledical
A more futuristic view predicts the use of "in-home diagnostic kits" in which monitoring devices will be attached directly to at-home patients, and diagnostic information will be made available to the physician before his patients come to see him.
Are we reducing individuals to computerized and passive spectators in a media world or are we leading them towards an enriched economical and cultural environment in which each individual can develop his fields of interest via the variety of technological possibilities? John and Magda McHale (1978) summarize some of the negative impacts: "Access to new information and corrununication potentials will be imbalanced for rich and poor - individuals and countries. Increased communication at-a-distance with greater reliance on machine interfaces could depersonalize and denature the range of interpersonal contacts. Individuals may become stratified into divergent information communities whose ideas, needs and expectations may be in conflict." To all that we may have to add the fear from Orwell's 1984, in which Big Brother controls all individual's activities. In my opinion, we are applying future consequences to considerations from the past. As Alvin Toffler notes, the new infrosphere both reflects and intensifies what he calls "The third wave". The socalled "mass" quality of both form and audience is no longer applicable. We are witnessing a "de-massification" of our civilization, with an increasingly heterogenous environment and the Information Revolution adapts technology to this new type of civilization. "As the people around us grow more individualized or de-massified, we need more information to predict, even roughly, how they are going to behave towards us." (Toffler, 1980) The information revolution is based, not only on technological opportunities but also on a sociological wave. The electronic newspaper as well as cable television enter into more and more homes because readers turn their interest from mass-media to what Toffler calls "de-massified media". New communication means can and will enrich social contacts. A corrununity interactive television system like the one experimented near Osaka, in Japan, where every viewer has a microphone and television camera on top of his TV set and can participate in the program from his home - develops neighborhood relations and involvement in community problems. It is therefore imperative to engage all our educational facilities in order to prepare our society to adapt the new
J. Baal-Schem
170
technologies and to learn how to use the new tools that we have at our disposal for the benefit of the whole society. We ought to find ways to spread the new facilities to developing countries and enable all members of our modern society to get equal access to the use and control of the new technologies. We have to launch a gigantesc educational campaign in order to provide the world citizen of tomorrow with the capacity to use, process and transmit information, as this will be the key resource in society. By mastering the information technologies instead of fighting their consequences, we can turn the 80's into a cause of optimism. REFERENCES Allan, R. (1976). Coming: the Era of Telemedicine. IEEE Spectrum, .!.i, 31-35. Carpenter, P. (1973) Cable Television: Uses in Education. RAND Corp. R-1143-NSF. Clippinger, J.H. (1980). A framework for needs assessment in Communications Development. Telecommunications Policy, 4, 208-214. Coles~ S.L. (1977). The application of Artificial Intelligence to Medicine. Futures, August 1977, 315-323. I.T.U. (1977). Yearbook of Common carrier Telecommunications stat istics. International Telecommunication Union, 6th edition. Lonnstrom, S., et al. (1967). A Telephone Development Project. L.M. Ericsson, Stockholm. McHale, J. and McHale Cordell, M. (1978). Communications and information: The global context and future issues. In WFSF (ed.) The future of communication and cultural identity. Cairo. ~1cHale, J. (1976). The changing information environment. Westview environmental studies, 4, Westview Press, Boulder Colorado,-p. 22. National Academy of Sciences (1978). Telecommunications for Metropolitan Areas: Opportunities for the 1980's. National Research Council, Washington. Parker, E.B. (1978). Communication satellites for rural development. Telecommunications Policy, ~, 309-315. Rockoff, M. L. (1975). The social implications in health care communication systems, IEEE Transactions on Communications, COM-23, 1075-1088. Toffler, A. (1980). The third ,,'ave. William ~Iorrow and Co., New-York. Ulrich, W.E. (1980). Introduction to electronic mail. Proceeding of National Computer Conference.
THE INFORMATION REVOLUTION AND ITS SOCIETAL IMPLICA TIONS
J.
Baal-Schem
InterdisClphnary Cent er for Technological Analysis and Forecasting, Tel·Avlv University, Tel·Aviv, Israel
Abstract. The most salient technological phenomenon of the 80's arises from the interweaving of dramatic developments in micro-computer technology with great achievements in telecommunications . As all great revolutions in history, the Information Revolutior. will have its repercussions in almost every aspect of our future life. Fundamental economical, political and social changes will occur both locally and around the world. In Less Developed Countries, the availability of adequate information systems is essential to economic and social development and therefore the provision of information services should be treated as part of investment in human capital. Keywords. Communication computers applications; Computer-aided instruction; Information systems; Microprocessors; Rural development; Technological forecasting; Telecommunication; Telemedicine. INTRODUCTION
THE TECHNOLOGICAL DEVELOPMENT
The introduction of microelectronic capabilities into the home, classroom, factory and office and the possibilities to communicate instantaneousely through satellites, optical fibers and other means from any place to any part of the world, are initiating a new era. Many countries are already in the midst of a vast transformation from an Industrial Society into an Informationrich Society. The exchange of information and the creation and transfer of knowledge have already become critical factors in economic growth, rather than the accelerated consumption of natural resources. The possibilities for providing timely and appropriate information to any location might become an important factor in the economic and social development of Less Developed Countries and Rural areas.
The advent of the Societal changes to be described later, stems mainly from a specific technological innovation: the creation of the first transistor by the Nobel-prize winning team of Shockley, Bardeen and Brattain of Bell Laboratories, in 1947. This historical development in electronics was based upon a systematic theoretical and experimental effort directed towards the use of semiconductors. The creation of the first transistor was a cornerstone in technology, but the real unpredicted breakthrough was the surge of solid state technology which revolutionized the computer industry, the key factor being an increasing ability to install logical functions on a single chip. The number of components that can be put on a silicon chip increased by a factor of 100 in the last half of the 1970's. Tens of thousand transistor-like components can fit on a chip and in several years the number of components on a chip may grow to 100,000 and above. Computer circuitry that in 1955 cost 1 Million dollars can be bought today for about one 1955 dollar and the rate of reduction in price is expected to continue through this decade. The computers of the 1990's will operate 10 times faster than today and we will therefore witness in the next decade a thousand-fold increase in capabilities together with a hundred-fold decrease in price.
Besides analyzing the technological developments and the applications forecast for the near future in the developed countries, this paper looks at the availability of communications in developing countries and on possible societal implications of providing computer-communications technologies to developing countries. This paper stipulates that by analyzing cautiously the possible interactions of the new technologies with society on the personal and national level, the advent of the Information Revolution during the 1980's can become a cause for optimism rather than for alarm.
At the beginning of the 70's, semiconductor
165
166
J. Baal-Schem
technology reached a point at which it became practical to build a complete small computer on one or two silicon chips. The Microprocessor, resulting from combining this microcomputer with appropriate memories of similar size, is capable of performing a very wide variety of high speed control or computational functions. The enormous advances in integrated chip technology have combined in recent years with major advances in communication technology to create a Computer-Communication environment - sometimes called Compunications - that promises to have major commercial and social impacts. The use of digital transmission, by which voice or TV waveforms are transformed into binary digits (or bits), allows the use of digital computer type equipment for the modulation, multiplexing and switching of trafic and enables voice and video traffic to flow along the same transmission channels used by computers . Long-haul telecommunication possibilities have developed enormously since the initial appearance of Communication Satellites, in the late sixties. In one decade, we have witnessed a 10-fold increase in satellite's communication capacity, a lOO-fold increase in their effective radiated power and a roughly lOO-fold decrease in costs. More than hundred communication satellites orbiting now the world are only the forerunners for additional high-power satellites with multi-spot beams launched to communicate directly with low-cost earth stations on the top of business and residential buildings. In terrestrial communications, optical fibers provide an enormous information carrying capacity (of up to 150 simultaneous channels in parallel) at a cost comparable to that of the conventional copper wire pairs used for telephones . The use of these fine fibers of optical material, transmitting information on light beams at a frequency 10,000 times higher than the highest frequency used in electronic communication, promises to further lower the cost of information transmission, in which a fourfold reduction in cost per circuit has been achieved in the past 25 years. In an era of extensive u s e of basic resources, telecommunications are unique among technologies in their minimum demand upon the material and energy resources of nature. Throughout its history - particularly in the past centur)' - it has found ways to increase its message handling capacity and reduce the unit costs by engineering developments. The cost of individual messages has continually decreased and the available media would be wasted rather than consumed if not used.
Moreover, as stated by John and Magda ~kHale (1978): "Communications and their organizational and resource capacities are not depletive but cumulative in use . They do not lose in value or amount by wider distribution, access, participation and sharing T they can only gain." THE COMPUNICATIO NS E'lVIRO\'l-1E"lT The advent of the technological breakthroughs in telecommunications and computers discussed earlier is changing our entire environment. In the terms of Daniel Bell's shift hypothesis (~kHale 1976): "A Pre-Industrial society is essentially based upon raw materials. An Industrial society is organized primarily around energy and the use of energy for the productivity of goods. A Post-Industrial society is organized around information and the utilisation of information." The most salient phenomenon of the 1980's will be the gradual transformation of most western societies into post-industrial information societies. The past few years have demonstrated the usefulness of computers in all types of business. Banks, offices, retail stores and industry make today extensive use of computing and the possibility to interconnect computers from different locations into computer networks has opened new applications for travel reservation system s , inventory control systems, banking services, etc. In the industrial plant, microprocessors are already incorporated i n Numerical Control machines, but the most revolutionary step is still to come. Thi s is the wide use of industrial robots to perform varied mechanical tasks. Specialized robots that can automaticall y perform man y assembly, material handling and in s pection tasks ar e already availabl e and used in some countries. Future dev e lopments in robot's ab i lity to acquire and realize s ensory information will lead to "automatic factories" planned for processing raw material into finished goods . In the office, computer driven word processors with television-lik e displa y screens have alread y raised text editing efficiency. But they are only the fir s t s tep towards integrated office systems. According to a recent research conducted in the U.S., the cost of printing, ma i ling, handling and filing of a one-page letter might reach in some cases up to 18 U, S. dollars. As clerical work is labor-intensive and wages are continuously ascending, a more extensive use of computers and telecommunication technologies in all steps of office information transfer might be of great economical value (Ulrich, 1980).
167
The Information Revolution and its Societal Implications The future "automated office", using computer tools (inclusive voice operated computer terminals) will enable to gather, retrieve, analyze, communicate, organize, transform, generate, modify and file information of all sort. One of such systems already in operation provides among other applications a Calendar Management system to set meetings for its users. Other systems use "voicemail" to convey verbal messages by use of "mail boxes" similar to those used for written messages transmitted by computers. While Electronic mail enables paperless distribution of mail and the possibility to read the mail at appropriate location and time, computer-conferencing facilitates the holding of conference without displacing the participants and non-interfering in their time-table. Problems to be discussed are entered into the data-base and each participant " is requested to read at his convenience the subjects on his screen and to add his comments. Participant s may decide whether a comment should be available to all other participants or to the chairman alone. companies do already save in travel costs and in energy waste by organizing video-conferences, involving participants from different sites or even different countries. In such conferences, the voices and pictures of people in discussion travel between different places by Television channels. Participants sit in front of a TV monitor in an office or a studio in the vicinity of their office, watch the other participants on the screen and talk to them through the telecommunication link. ~tany
In the payments for good s and services an extensive us e of credit cards has been noted during recent year s . But checks and credit cards still require an extensive amount of paper handling and therefore a trend towards electronic fund tran s fer is predicted for the near future. One of the possibilities (already experimental in France) is an electronically loaded card, i nc luding a microprocessor. By introducing this card into the point-of-sale terminal and adding the consumer's personal code, an adequate electronic transfer of fund s i s made and registered in a magnetic ca s sette presented afterwards by the store to the bank. But the most impressive change in our personal environment s temming from the information revolution w"ill be in home computing. It is expected that within the 80's most homes \\"ill contain at least one computer whether a "hidden" computer, controll ing one or several of the home appliances or a personal computer operated by the owner. In a report prepared b y a committee for the \ational Academy of Sciences in \Iashington (1978), a home integrated communications and information system is foreseen, compri:ing of 4 computerized subsystems. This system may give an idea of conceivable applications foreseen for the home in the end of the current decade.
A wide variety of useful information services will be delivered via home computer terminal connected to the telephone line. Those services - condensed under the name of Viewdata - will provide anything from encyclopedias or libraries of relatively fixed information to highly dynamic information on current news, market conditions, supermarkets specials, games and want ads. Hundred of thousands of pages of useful, highly organized information are already accessible to the subscribers of existing systems in U.K., France, Japan and other countries, through their telephone line, home computers and attached displays. Viewdata requires a telephone line and a suitable modified TV set to access a data bank. The TV set can be a standard domestic receiver to which a special adaptor is connected or alternatively a purpose-built viewdata set. With the development of optical fibers, the telephone line might be replaced by an optical fiber connection between the home and the data base. By adding a microphone and a camera to the keyboard and TV set already available at the subscriber premises, a twoway interactive communication system is set between the cent er and the subscriber's home, permitting a wide variety of services. These services will include: TV re-transmission (as in regular cable television systems), TV studio broadcasting with subscriber's participation from his home, Video request services and still picture services. Through its wideband optical fiber communication facilities, the interactive system enables the subscriber to call-up information stored in a microfiche facility at the center - as reports, books, etc. He can access a video cassette library to see when suitable for him - any prerecorded program or access such data as local weather, utility breakdowns, on-duty doctors in the area and traffic information. He might even participate from his living-room on town-hall meetings and on polls among viewers. CO~NU'HCATIO~S
I~
DEVELOPING
COU~HRIES
of the foregoing discussion is mainly applicable to the developed countries, while developing countries are still severely disadvantaged in telecommunication systems.
~ost
Telephone density is a useful indicator of telecommunication services' penetration in a country. According to the International Communication Union (1977), the telephone densi ty in South "- \merica as of January 1, 1977 was of 4.5 telephones per 100 inhabitants, compared to 70.7 in ~orth America and 14.5 in the whole world. In addition to the low density of telephones
J 68
J. Baal-Schem
in developing countries, the distribution of these telephones inside the country is different from the distribution in developed countries. The density of telephones in Sweden in 1963 was 65.6 in major cities and 35.1 in the rest of the country. In the same year, the density of telephones in Greece was 9.6 in major cities and 0.9 in the rest of the countries and in Mexico the densities were 5.1 and 0.5 accordingly (Lonnstrom, 1967). In many cases, when telecommunication facilities are provided to a developing country, they are implemented mainly in urban areas for industry, business and residential uses. In rural areas, the costs of providing telecommunication services are much higher and the effective demand seems to be lower. Although the economic viability of providing telecommunications to rural areas is low at first sight, the social benefits to the developing society should also be assessed during the planning phase. Moreover, Parker (1978) has proved that at some times the effective use - and economic value - of these rural systems is greatly underestimated during the pI anning st age. The provision of telephone lines is only one facet of telecommunications and of computercommunication systems. Effective data bases including specific information relevant to the special needs of developing areas should be installed and an easy access to these data bases should be provided. Development planning of telecommunication and computer infrastructure should be based on the system approach and on the analysis of the information and services required for the thorough development of the area (Clippinger, 1980). Only after information services requirements have been stated, the actual planning for gradual implementation of technological s ystems can be initiated. SOCIAL IMPLICATIONS ON DEVELOPI NG COU NTRIES Adequate information systems and communication channels are essential to the economic and social development of countries. Furthermore, one should consider with great attention possible implications of these technologies on society, with a special emphasis to developing countries, as the implementation of appropriate telecommunication services in these countries might be deci s ive in their development. One of the main advantages provided by modern computer-communication means is the possibility to use midlevel personnel in the remote areas with adequate guidance by specialists located at central points (Parker, 1978). In developing countries, where specialised personnel - in all professions - is scarce and where the population is often dispersed over a large area, the use of computer-communication services might be of great importance .
The two areas of impact to be discussed further - education and medicine - are only examples for the broad fields of applications one can view for the "technotronic age" (as it has been called by Zbigniev Brzezinski). By raising the educational level of a developing society and by providing high level health care to the population, great societal changes can be achieved . In addition to these, the implementation of an appropriate telecommunications infrastructure can assist in the provision of public services, in industrial and commercial services and also in residential services - in order to improve the quality of life in these developing areas. Educational Services The Information Revolution will impact twofolds on education : it will provide for new educational tools and it will require changes in the content of education . Experience in developed and developing countries has demonstrated the advantages of using telecommunications to augment normal educational facilities and to provide for specialized instruction (Carpenter, 1978). This is especially true for rural communities where in addition to enable enrichment of regular educational activities, the use of telecommunications can make university level and vocational training available to groups of students which otherwise might not have the opportunity to receive such education . Special computer-based educational delivery systems (as the CDC PLATO system) are designed for individualized and distributive education in an interactive environment. The principle vehicle through which users interact with the computer is the terminal. Terminals are connected to site controllers (up to 32 terminals to each controller) via either ordinary telephone lines (dial-up or dedicated line) or directly (hard-wired) via twisted pairs of wires. The site controller processes two way digital data between the terminals and the computer interface unit, also via ordinary phone line or by hard wired communication . However communication from the computer interface unit to the site controllers (up to 32) can be via TV cable, hard-wired or open-air broadcast. The computer interface unit is connected to the central computer by a coaxial cable. In a developing community where the demand for specialized personnel in many different fields requires re-training of manpower, the availability of advanced or specialized technical and professional training through telecommunications might be of tremendous help. Telecommunications introduce a means for delivering educational services to individuals in their homes, at convenient times and at a pace in keeping with their ability. In an era where continuing education for adults is of paramount importance, the
The Information Revolution and its Societal Implications availability of educational programs over telecommunication channels can contribute widely in making developing areas more attractive places to live.
169
INTERACTIONS WITH SOCIETY Is this view of the impact of the Information revolution on society a cause for Alarm or Optimism?
Health Care Great benefits from the development of computers and communications are to be expected in the field of health care (Allan, 1976). Microelectronics have already permitted the development of heart pace-makers and other sophisticated medical equipment. In the next decade Telemedicine will use telecommunications to facilitate health care delivery over large distances. A research by the Smith, Kline and French Laboratories predicts that the doctor of the future "will make extensive use of motellike, para-hospitals for care of ambulatory or convalescent patients and of regional medical centers for the treatment of serious ill patients or patients with rarer diseases." A typical telemedicine system (Rockoff, 1975) consists of neighborhood clinics connected to doctors' offices or a community hospital. The doctors and the hospital are interconnected to a medical center. All the connections are wide-band video communication links enabling tow-way transmission of voice and oneway transmission (from the clinic to the hospital) of television. One of the "neighborhood clinics" might be installed in a van, visiting periodically each of a group of communities to deliver health care. The telemedicine concept is based on the assumption that the remote stations will be staffed by midlevel or new health practitioners while the experienced physicians will be available at the central medical facilities. The physician can view and diagnose the patient via the interactive voice and television channel and prescribe treatment to the health practitioner at the patient's side. Such systems might improve healthcare delivery to rural areas or even intercity ghetto-areas where medic~l resources are often inadequate, especially in less developed countries where population is spread all over large areas and medical personnel are scarce. diagnosis will also be computer-assisted. Employing Artificial Intelligence methods, automatic consulting systems have already been built that can diagnose diseases or advise physicians on the appropriate antibiotic for the treatment of patients with bacterial infection, as the MYCIN system does. ~ledical
A more futuristic view predicts the use of "in-home diagnostic kits" in which monitoring devices will be attached directly to at-home patients, and diagnostic information will be made available to the physician before his patients come to see him.
Are we reducing individuals to computerized and passive spectators in a media world or are we leading them towards an enriched economical and cultural environment in which each individual can develop his fields of interest via the variety of technological possibilities? John and Magda McHale (1978) summarize some of the negative impacts: "Access to new information and corrununication potentials will be imbalanced for rich and poor - individuals and countries. Increased communication at-a-distance with greater reliance on machine interfaces could depersonalize and denature the range of interpersonal contacts. Individuals may become stratified into divergent information communities whose ideas, needs and expectations may be in conflict." To all that we may have to add the fear from Orwell's 1984, in which Big Brother controls all individual's activities. In my opinion, we are applying future consequences to considerations from the past. As Alvin Toffler notes, the new infrosphere both reflects and intensifies what he calls "The third wave". The socalled "mass" quality of both form and audience is no longer applicable. We are witnessing a "de-massification" of our civilization, with an increasingly heterogenous environment and the Information Revolution adapts technology to this new type of civilization. "As the people around us grow more individualized or de-massified, we need more information to predict, even roughly, how they are going to behave towards us." (Toffler, 1980) The information revolution is based, not only on technological opportunities but also on a sociological wave. The electronic newspaper as well as cable television enter into more and more homes because readers turn their interest from mass-media to what Toffler calls "de-massified media". New communication means can and will enrich social contacts. A corrununity interactive television system like the one experimented near Osaka, in Japan, where every viewer has a microphone and television camera on top of his TV set and can participate in the program from his home - develops neighborhood relations and involvement in community problems. It is therefore imperative to engage all our educational facilities in order to prepare our society to adapt the new
J. Baal-Schem
170
technologies and to learn how to use the new tools that we have at our disposal for the benefit of the whole society. We ought to find ways to spread the new facilities to developing countries and enable all members of our modern society to get equal access to the use and control of the new technologies. We have to launch a gigantesc educational campaign in order to provide the world citizen of tomorrow with the capacity to use, process and transmit information, as this will be the key resource in society. By mastering the information technologies instead of fighting their consequences, we can turn the 80's into a cause of optimism. REFERENCES Allan, R. (1976). Coming: the Era of Telemedicine. IEEE Spectrum, .!.i, 31-35. Carpenter, P. (1973) Cable Television: Uses in Education. RAND Corp. R-1143-NSF. Clippinger, J.H. (1980). A framework for needs assessment in Communications Development. Telecommunications Policy, 4, 208-214. Coles~ S.L. (1977). The application of Artificial Intelligence to Medicine. Futures, August 1977, 315-323. I.T.U. (1977). Yearbook of Common carrier Telecommunications stat istics. International Telecommunication Union, 6th edition. Lonnstrom, S., et al. (1967). A Telephone Development Project. L.M. Ericsson, Stockholm. McHale, J. and McHale Cordell, M. (1978). Communications and information: The global context and future issues. In WFSF (ed.) The future of communication and cultural identity. Cairo. ~1cHale, J. (1976). The changing information environment. Westview environmental studies, 4, Westview Press, Boulder Colorado,-p. 22. National Academy of Sciences (1978). Telecommunications for Metropolitan Areas: Opportunities for the 1980's. National Research Council, Washington. Parker, E.B. (1978). Communication satellites for rural development. Telecommunications Policy, ~, 309-315. Rockoff, M. L. (1975). The social implications in health care communication systems, IEEE Transactions on Communications, COM-23, 1075-1088. Toffler, A. (1980). The third ,,'ave. William ~Iorrow and Co., New-York. Ulrich, W.E. (1980). Introduction to electronic mail. Proceeding of National Computer Conference.