- Email: [email protected]
The International Symposium on Forecasting 2001
Technological Forecasting & Social Change 69 (2002) 441 – 442
Introduction
The International Symposium on Forecasting 2001 Alan L. Porter ISYE, Georgia Institute of Technology, 30332-0205 Atlanta, GA, USA
ISF 2001 brought together about 350 forecasters. We worked hard to encourage technology forecasters to participate, and they did. Seven sessions and additional papers concerned technology forecasting (TF) methods and applications (http://www.isf2001.org). From these, Hal Linstone and I selected these papers to comprise this special issue. They span an intriguing spectrum:
Richard Albright addresses the question: how accurate are technology forecasts? He reports on a well-formulated expert evaluation of 100 forecasts generated by Kahn and Wiener in 1967. Tim Anderson, Rolf Fa¨re, Shawna Grosshopf, Lane Inman and Xiaoyu Song apply data envelopment analysis (DEA) to examine Moore’s law on microprocessor development trends. Pam Krause reports on Proteus—a well-designed (scenario + response) project to develop alternative futures for the National Reconnaissance Office. John Peterson presents a compelling multidimensional matrix approach for organizations to address differing temporal horizons. Donghua Zhu and Alan Porter explore ways to exploit information resources for technology forecasting by partially automating indicator generation and technology mapping.
Technology forecasters need to meet professionally to stimulate development of our methods and share lessons learned in bolstering TF application. We have three venues to call to your attention:
The annual International Symposium on Forecasting (ISF); the 2002 meeting is in Dublin June 23–26; check out: http://www.isf2002.org/.
* Fax: +1-404-894-2301. E-mail address: [email protected] (A.L. Porter).
0040-1625/02/$ – see front matter D 2002 Published by Elsevier Science Inc. PII: S 0 0 4 0 - 1 6 2 5 ( 0 2 ) 0 0 2 3 1 - 7
442
Introduction / Technological Forecasting & Social Change 69 (2002) 441–442
The International Conference on Technology Policy and Innovation (ICTPI), held annually in different venues, in 2002 in Kansai, Japan, August 12–15; check out: http:// www.keihanna-plaza.co.jp/ictpi2000/. The Portland International Conference on the Management of Engineering and Technology (PICMET) held biennially in Oregon; at the 2001 meeting the technology forecasting and planning track encompassed nine sessions; next in Summer 2003; check out: http://www.picmet.org/.
Consider joining your colleagues at one of these to share ideas and help build our field. Organize a session, present a paper, or just come. Alan L. Porter
Introduction
The International Symposium on Forecasting 2001 Alan L. Porter ISYE, Georgia Institute of Technology, 30332-0205 Atlanta, GA, USA
ISF 2001 brought together about 350 forecasters. We worked hard to encourage technology forecasters to participate, and they did. Seven sessions and additional papers concerned technology forecasting (TF) methods and applications (http://www.isf2001.org). From these, Hal Linstone and I selected these papers to comprise this special issue. They span an intriguing spectrum:
Richard Albright addresses the question: how accurate are technology forecasts? He reports on a well-formulated expert evaluation of 100 forecasts generated by Kahn and Wiener in 1967. Tim Anderson, Rolf Fa¨re, Shawna Grosshopf, Lane Inman and Xiaoyu Song apply data envelopment analysis (DEA) to examine Moore’s law on microprocessor development trends. Pam Krause reports on Proteus—a well-designed (scenario + response) project to develop alternative futures for the National Reconnaissance Office. John Peterson presents a compelling multidimensional matrix approach for organizations to address differing temporal horizons. Donghua Zhu and Alan Porter explore ways to exploit information resources for technology forecasting by partially automating indicator generation and technology mapping.
Technology forecasters need to meet professionally to stimulate development of our methods and share lessons learned in bolstering TF application. We have three venues to call to your attention:
The annual International Symposium on Forecasting (ISF); the 2002 meeting is in Dublin June 23–26; check out: http://www.isf2002.org/.
* Fax: +1-404-894-2301. E-mail address: [email protected] (A.L. Porter).
0040-1625/02/$ – see front matter D 2002 Published by Elsevier Science Inc. PII: S 0 0 4 0 - 1 6 2 5 ( 0 2 ) 0 0 2 3 1 - 7
442
Introduction / Technological Forecasting & Social Change 69 (2002) 441–442
The International Conference on Technology Policy and Innovation (ICTPI), held annually in different venues, in 2002 in Kansai, Japan, August 12–15; check out: http:// www.keihanna-plaza.co.jp/ictpi2000/. The Portland International Conference on the Management of Engineering and Technology (PICMET) held biennially in Oregon; at the 2001 meeting the technology forecasting and planning track encompassed nine sessions; next in Summer 2003; check out: http://www.picmet.org/.
Consider joining your colleagues at one of these to share ideas and help build our field. Organize a session, present a paper, or just come. Alan L. Porter