The livestock revolution—a global veterinary mission

Veterinary Parasitology 125 (2004) 19–41

The livestock revolution—a global veterinary mission Henning Steinfeld∗ Food and Agriculture Organization, AGAP, Room C-542, Viale delle Terme di Caracalla, Rome 00100, Italy

Abstract Increasing population, urbanisation and disposable incomes in developing countries are fuelling a strong growth in demand for animal food products, which in turn will have a strong impact on the location and organisation of global livestock production. Changes in the latter will in turn strongly impinge on animal and human health, the livelihoods of the poor and the environment. The consequences of these trends, termed the ‘livestock revolution’, are expected to dramatically change the face of animal agriculture in coming decades, including a major increase in the developing countries’ share in world livestock production and consumption; a gradual substitution of cereals and other basic foods with meat and milk in the developing countries’ diets; a change from multiple production objectives to more specialised intensive meat, milk and egg production within an integrated global food and feed market; a shift to more industrial production and processing; rising use of cereal-based animal feeds; and greater stress on fragile extensive pastoral areas and more pressure on land in areas with very high population densities and close to urban centres. Henning Steinfeld, an agricultural economist from the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, reviews here trends associated with the ‘Livestock Revolution’ and predicted implications for animal health. The presentation was given in a plenary session at the 19th International Conference of the World Association for the Advancement of Veterinary Parasitology (WAAVP) held in New Orleans, Louisiana, USA during 10–14 August 2003. © 2004 Published by Elsevier B.V. Keywords: Livestock revolution; Veterinary medicine; Animal health; International development

1. Introduction Livestock production is the world’s largest user of land either directly through grazing or indirectly as the source of fodder and feed grains. Globally, livestock production currently accounts for some 40% of the gross value of agricultural production. In developed countries ∗ Tel.: +39 06 570 54751. E-mail address: [email protected] (H. Steinfeld).

0304-4017/$ – see front matter © 2004 Published by Elsevier B.V. doi:10.1016/j.vetpar.2004.05.003

20

H. Steinfeld / Veterinary Parasitology 125 (2004) 19–41

Table 1 Annual growth rates (%) of total livestock production 1969–1999 1979–1999 1989–1999 1997/1999–2015 2015–2030 1997/1999– 2030 World Excluding China

2.2 1.7

2.1 1.3

2.0 0.8

1.7 1.6

1.5 1.5

1.6 1.5

Developing countries Excluding China Excluding China and Brazil

4.6 3.5 3.3

5.0 3.5 3.3

5.5 3.6 3.3

2.6 2.8 2.9

2.1 2.5 2.6

2.4 2.7 2.8

Sub-Saharan Africa

2.4

2.0

2.1

3.2

3.3

3.2

Latin America Excluding Brazil

3.1 2.3

3.0 2.1

3.7 2.7

2.4 2.4

1.9 2.1

2.1 2.3

Near East/North Africa South Asia

3.4 4.2

3.4 4.5

3.4 4.1

2.9 3.3

2.6 2.8

2.7 3.1

East Asia Excluding China

7.2 4.8

8.0 4.7

8.2 3.7

2.3 3.0

1.6 2.7

2.0 2.8

Industrial countries Transition countries

1.2 −0.1

1.0 −1.8

1.2 −5.7

0.7 0.5

0.4 0.6

0.6 0.5

Note: Total livestock production was derived by aggregating four meats, milk and eggs with 1989/1991 ICP prices. Source: Bruinsma et al. (2002).

this share is more than half, while in developing countries it accounts for one-third of agricultural production. This latter share, however, is rising quickly following rapid increases in livestock production as a result of population growth, urbanization, changes in life styles and dietary habits, and increasing disposable incomes. This is reflected by the fact that growth in the livestock sector has consistently exceeded that in the crop sector. The total demand for animal products in the developing countries is expected to more than double by 2030. Conversely, demand for animal products in the industrial world has been stagnating and livestock production in this group of countries is expected to grow only slowly over the projection period (see Table 1). Satisfying the increasing and changing demands for animal food products, while at the same time sustaining the natural resource base (soil, water, air and biodiversity), is one of the major challenges facing world agriculture today. It is a challenge that will have a substantive impact on global agriculture as a whole, as it will be increasingly driven by changes in the livestock sub-sector. A number of these trends are already apparent, for example: • a geographic shift of livestock production from temperate and dry areas to warmer, more humid and disease-prone environments; • a change in livestock production practices from a local multi-purpose activity into a market-oriented and increasingly integrated process; • increasing pressure on, and competition for, common-property resources, such as grazing and water resources;

H. Steinfeld / Veterinary Parasitology 125 (2004) 19–41

21

• more large-scale, industrial production located close to urban centres, with associated environmental and public health risks; • a decreasing importance of ruminant vis-à-vis monogastric livestock species; and • a substantial rise in the use of cereal-based feed. Meeting these challenges raises a number substantive global and national public policy issues that will have to be addressed. Broadly, these encompass issues associated with equity and poverty alleviation, the environment and natural resource management, and public health and food safety. 1.1. Consumption of livestock products Globally, per caput food consumption continues to increase both in the developing and industrialised countries, as well as in countries in transition, as a result of increasing average per caput real incomes. The gap between food consumption in the developing and industrialised countries is predicted to narrow as consumption in the latter countries has become saturated. Average daily food energy consumption in developing countries in 1997/1999 was estimated at 2680 kcal/caput. Owing, however, to the uneven distribution of dietary energy consumption in these countries, a significant percentage of the population is estimated to receive less than the daily maintenance requirement (ranging from 1700 to 2000 kcal/caput per day), resulting in some 17% of the population (777 million) being undernourished. Changes are also occurring in the type of food consumed. With increasing incomes, demand for greater food variety and for higher value and quality foods such as meat, eggs and milk, increases. The latter is at the expense of food of plant origin such as cereals. These changes in consumption, together with sizeable population growth and urbanisation, have led and will continue to lead to large increases in the total demand for animal products in many developing countries. The trend of substituting animal products for plant products is evident in the developing countries. Even though the contribution of cereals to total calories consumed has increased in absolute terms, in relative terms it continues to fall, from 60% in 1961/1963 to an expected 50% in 2030. Similarly, the relative contribution of the group of other traditional staples (potatoes, sweet potatoes, cassava, plantains and other roots) fell from being the second largest contributor to dietary calories (10%) in 1961/1963 to the lowest contributor (6.2%) by 1997/1999. By then, animal products had become the second major source of calories (10.6%) in developing countries. Cereals contribute significantly less in relative terms to total calories consumed in industrialised countries with the share remaining at around 34%, while the relative contribution of animal products has remained stable at approximately 23%. As the per caput consumption of animal products in developing countries is still less than a third of that in industrialised countries (meat 25.5 kg per person against 88.2 kg in industrialised countries; milk 44.6 kg against 212.2 kg in industrialised countries), there remains a significant potential in developing countries to increase the contribution of animal products to dietary calories both in absolute and percentage terms. In developed countries, the consumption of animal proteins increased by 25% in 1997/ 1999 (55 g/caput per day) since 1961/1963 (44 g/caput per day), but has remained fairly stable over the past two decades. In developing countries however, the level of consumption

22

H. Steinfeld / Veterinary Parasitology 125 (2004) 19–41

of animal proteins, although on a steady increase from 9 g/caput per day in 1961/1963 to 20 g/caput per day in 1997/1999, leaves a significant potential and need for increases. Between 1997/1999 and 2030, per caput meat consumption in developing countries is projected to increase from 25.5 to 37 kg per person compared with an increase from 88 to 100 kg in the industrialised countries. Similar projections for milk (and dairy products) consumption are from 45 to 66 kg and from 212 to 221 kg in the developing and industrialised countries, respectively, and for eggs from 6.5 to 8.9 kg and from 13.5 to 13.8 kg in the developing and industrialised countries, respectively. Wide regional and country differences are also evident in the quantity and type of animal products consumed—reflecting the traditional preferences based on availability, relative prices and religious and taste preferences. Some of the more important aspects that are worth noting include: • Sub-Saharan Africa has had low levels of animal products consumption that have changed little over the last 30 years. While an increase in food consumption is predicted, only minor increases are projected for animal products consumption. In relative terms, animal products contribute about 5% to per caput calorie consumption, about half that of the developing countries as a whole and a fifth of that of the industrialised countries. Milk contribution to total calories and protein per caput has remained constant in recent years indicating an increase in total milk availability equivalent to population increases. • In the Near East and North Africa region, the contribution of animal products to the relatively high calorie consumption is small, just 8.7% in 1997/1999. Significant changes in the diet however are projected with the contribution of animal products (primarily poultry meat and milk) to total calorie intake increasing, to 11.4% by 2030. • In Latin America and Caribbean (excluding Brazil), animal products (meat) consumption has historically been higher than in other developing country groups and is predicted to increase further. Currently animal products provide 16.6% of the dietary energy, due largely to an increase in the proportion of meat, particularly poultry meat. Nevertheless meat consumption per caput is still at about 60% of that of industrialised countries, implying that there is scope for further growth. • Brazil is somewhat unique in terms of its large (18.8% in 1997/1999) and increasing dietary contribution of animal products. Indeed the gap between Brazil and the rest of Latin America is expected to widen. This increase is largely due to an increase in the contribution of meat, especially poultry, and milk. Meat consumption per caput, which at present is over three-quarters the level of industrialised countries, is projected to reach industrialised countries’ levels by 2030. Likewise, per caput milk consumption, at present just over half the level of industrialised countries, is projected to reach three-quarters of the industrialised countries’ consumption by 2030. • In South Asia (excluding India), there has been a slow but steady growth in animal products consumption. This increase is due mostly to an increase in the contribution of milk, already high at a per caput level 50% above the average for developing countries, and an increase in the contribution of poultry meat. The contribution of eggs to diets is well below the developing country average. • In India, the contribution of animal products to diets is predicted to increase rapidly up to 2030 due largely to increases in the consumption of milk and milk products.

H. Steinfeld / Veterinary Parasitology 125 (2004) 19–41

23

• In East Asia (excluding China) there is also a steady increase in the contribution of animal products to the diet. However, unlike South Asia (except India), this increase is due to the contribution of meat, predominantly pork. • In China, the projected rapid rise in the contribution of animal products to dietary energy from 15 to 20% between 1997/1999 and 2030, will be mainly on account of a substantial increase in the contribution of pork and poultry. Per caput consumption of milk is very low and projected to remain so (from 7 kg in 1997/1999 to 14 kg in 2030 against an average increase from 45 to 66 kg for developing countries). Conversely, egg consumption in China is very high (from 15 kg in 1997/1999 to 20 kg in 2030) at more than double that of the developing nations average and even above the industrial country average. 1.2. Production Changes in consumption patterns will continue to result in an average net increase in the demand for animal products. With this expansion in the demand for animal products, traditional mixed farming practices alone will no longer be capable of meeting requirements. The location of production and processing activities is increasingly determined by factors such as the availability, quality and cost of inputs and proximity to the markets, rather than by availability of local resources. Increasing the supply of animal products can be achieved through combinations of increasing the number of animals, improving productivity, and processing/marketing efficiency. Land availability limits the expansion of livestock numbers in extensive production systems in most regions and the bulk of the increase in livestock production will come from increased productivity through intensification and a wider adoption of existing and new production and marketing technologies. With respect to structural changes in livestock production systems, the strongest trend has been the location of intensive, vertically integrated, intensive livestock production systems, particularly for pig and broiler (poultry meat) production in East Asia and Latin America, and broilers production in South Asia, close to large urban centres. Similar trends are apparent, albeit to a lesser degree, in dairy and beef production. In East Asia the growth in demand for feed grain associated with these production systems has been met by increased imports, effectively substituting imports of livestock products for imports of feed grain. In addressing public policy issues, governments and other stakeholders are confronted with important trade-offs. For example, many developing countries favour industrial livestock production in order to provide affordable animal protein to urban populations (nutritional and public health benefits) at the expense of affecting the competitiveness of small (rural) producers and diminishing their market opportunities. Similarly, stricter food safety regulations to enhance public health constitute barriers that often prevent the poor farmers from entering formal markets. 1.3. Livestock production and productivity To arrive at projections for total demand (for all uses) for livestock products, the other demand components such as the use of livestock products for non-food industrial uses,

24

H. Steinfeld / Veterinary Parasitology 125 (2004) 19–41

milk consumed by offspring, eggs for hatching and wastage, were added to the food demand (direct human consumption) projections. Subsequently for each country, a detailed analysis was made of its past and future trade in livestock products, including trade in inputs such as cereals and oilseeds used for animal feed, to arrive at production projections for livestock products in each country. The overall results in terms of expected production growth rates (aggregated over all livestock products covered in this study) are presented in Table 1. The main features are a gradual slowdown in the growth in livestock production at the global level, consisting of slow growth in the industrial countries, a recovery in the transition countries, and a more pronounced slowdown of growth in the developing countries. The latter however is heavily dominated by the expected slowdown in two major countries that experienced fast growth in livestock production in the past, namely China and Brazil. Excluding these nations, the slowdown is much more gradual. Moreover, at the individual country level, developments are much more varied with several countries accelerating livestock production growth. Table 2 gives the details of the livestock production data and projections for the six livestock products covered in this study, underlying the overall results presented in Table 1. In the developing countries there has been a continued increase in production, with annual growth rates for the six commodities ranging from 3.7 to 9.4% for the period 1989–1999. By contrast, over the same period production in the developed countries actually fell with the exception of poultry meat. This of course, is heavily dominated by the collapse of livestock production in the transition countries. Production is shifting to the developing countries and by 1997/1999 their share in world meat production was 53% and in milk production 39% as compared with 40 and 28% only 10 years earlier (late-1980s). Again, this was in part due to the collapse of production in the transition countries, but it is a trend even in the absence of this phenomenon. Annual growth of meat and milk production in developing countries is projected at 2.4 and 2.7%, respectively. This would raise developing countries’ share in world meat production by 2030 to 66% (247 million tonnes), and in milk production to 55% (484 million tonnes). The growth in white meat (pork and poultry) production in developing countries between 1989 and 1999 has been remarkable at more than double the growth of ruminant meat. There are, however, major regional differences. Growth in poultry meat production has been particularly spectacular in East Asia (11.7% pa) and South Asia (7.2% pa) and reflects the rapid intensification of the poultry industry in the region. Latin America saw annual growth rates of 9%. Yet in sub-Saharan Africa the annual growth rate was 2.6%, which, while substantial, was considerably less than in Asia and Latin America. Red meat (ruminant meat) accounted for almost 37% of total meat production in the developing countries in the late-1980s, but declined to 31% in 1997/1999 and is expected to decline further. Likewise, egg production increased in the developing countries during the last 10 years (1989–1999) with similar regional differences. Annual growth rates for East Asia, South Asia and sub-Saharan Africa were 10.7, 4.7 and 2.6%, respectively. Latin America saw a growth rate of 2.5% per year, while in the industrialized countries production stagnated and in the countries in transition production fell by 4.7% per annum. Buffalo and cow milk production in developing countries grew at 4.1% pa over the same period, with the highest annual growth found in South Asia (4.9%) and the lowest in sub-Saharan Africa (1.9%).

Table 2 Livestock production by commodity: past and projected 1967/1969a 92 84 28 21 18 3 10 7 2 3 10 3 46 17

Bovine meat World Developing countries Excluding China Excluding China and Brazil Sub-Saharan Africa Latin America Excluding Brazil Near East/North Africa South Asia East Asia Excluding China Industrial countries Transition countries

38.0 11.8 11.7 10.0 1.6 6.8 5.1 0.7 1.7 1.0 0.8 19.1 7.0

1997/1999a

2015a

2030a

166 142 66 41 34 4 19 11 5 5 33 8 71 29

218 162 116 60 47 5 28 15 7 7 69 13 85 17

300 218 181 98 79 9 43 24 13 13 103 21 99 20

376 277 247 147 123 16 58 33 19 23 131 32 107 22

53.7 19.3 18.4 14.4 2.2 10.4 6.5 1.3 3.1 2.3 1.4 23.8 10.6

58.7 28.0 23.2 17.3 2.6 13.1 7.2 1.8 4.0 6.4 1.6 25.0 5.7

74.0 41.2 33.5 25.2 4.3 18.2 9.9 2.8 5.7 10.1 2.5 26.6 6.3

88.4 55.0 44.1 34.1 6.7 22.5 12.5 4.1 7.4 14.4 3.5 26.5 6.9

1969–1999b

1989–1999b

1995/1997–2015b

2015–2030b

2.9 2.1 5.2 3.8 3.5 2.3 3.5 2.5 4.4 3.7 7.1 5.1 1.9 0.0

2.7 1.3 5.9 3.9 3.3 2.2 4.5 3.1 3.8 2.8 7.6 4.1 1.8 −6.4

1.9 1.8 2.7 3.0 3.1 3.3 2.6 2.7 3.5 3.6 2.4 3.0 0.9 0.8

1.5 1.6 2.1 2.7 2.9 3.5 2.1 2.3 2.9 3.9 1.6 2.8 0.5 0.8

1.4 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 2.5 1.4 3.2 3.1 6.4 2.1 0.6 −0.3

0.8 3.8 2.2 1.5 1.7 2.1 0.4 3.4 2.3 11.5 2.3 0.6 −7.5

1.4 2.3 2.2 2.3 3.0 1.9 1.9 2.4 2.1 2.7 2.6 0.4 0.5

1.2 2.0 1.8 2.0 3.0 1.4 1.6 2.6 1.7 2.4 2.2 0.0 0.6

H. Steinfeld / Veterinary Parasitology 125 (2004) 19–41

Total meat World Excluding China Developing countries Excluding China Excluding China and Brazil Sub-Saharan Africa Latin America Excluding Brazil Near East/North Africa South Asia East Asia Excluding China Industrial countries Transition countries

1987/1989a

25

26

Table 2 (Continued ) 1967/1969a

1997/1999a

2015a

2030a

1969–1999b

1989–1999b

1995/1997–2015b

2015–2030b

6.6 3.0 0.6 0.9 0.6 0.4 2.4 1.3

9.1 5.0 0.9 1.5 1.1 1.1 2.8 1.3

10.8 7.4 1.3 1.8 1.3 2.5 2.7 0.8

15.3 11.2 2.2 2.6 2.1 3.8 3.1 0.9

20.1 15.4 3.4 3.5 3.1 4.8 3.5 1.1

1.9 3.4 2.8 2.3 3.5 7.0 0.6 −1.0

1.4 3.7 3.5 1.9 1.4 8.1 −0.8 −6.4

2.1 2.5 3.1 2.2 2.6 2.6 0.9 1.3

1.8 2.1 3.0 2.0 2.6 1.5 0.8 1.1

Pig meat World Excluding China Developing countries Excluding China Latin America Excluding Brazil East Asia Excluding China Industrial countries Transition countries

34.1 28.1 9.7 3.8 1.8 1.1 7.6 1.6 16.6 7.7

66.3 46.2 28.0 7.9 3.0 1.9 24.2 4.0 26.0 12.3

86.5 48.1 49.3 10.9 3.9 2.3 44.3 5.9 29.3 7.9

110.2 57.9 69.5 17.2 6.0 3.4 61.6 9.3 32.3 8.4

124.5 66.2 82.8 24.5 7.8 4.4 71.9 13.6 33.1 8.6

3.2 1.7 6.1 3.7 2.1 1.7 6.8 5.1 1.8 −0.1

2.7 0.4 5.7 3.4 3.9 2.8 6.0 3.3 1.4 −5.3

1.4 1.1 2.0 2.7 2.5 2.3 2.0 2.8 0.6 0.4

0.8 0.9 1.2 2.4 1.8 1.8 1.0 2.5 0.2 0.1

Poultry meat World Excluding China Developing countries Excluding China Excluding China and Brazil Sub-Saharan Africa Latin America Excluding Brazil Near East/North Africa South Asia East Asia

12.9 12.1 3.3 2.5 2.2 0.3 1.0 0.7 0.4 0.2 1.5

37.2 34.6 13.2 10.6 8.6 0.7 4.7 2.7 2.1 0.5 5.3

61.8 51.2 31.3 20.7 15.6 0.9 10.5 5.4 3.2 1.1 15.5

100.6 81.4 59.1 39.9 31.9 1.9 18.2 10.2 7.1 3.9 27.9

143.3 117.5 93.5 67.7 56.4 4.1 27.3 16.0 11.6 10.6 39.9

5.2 4.8 7.9 7.4 6.9 3.8 7.8 6.7 7.7 7.7 8.5

5.4 4.1 9.4 7.2 6.4 2.6 9.0 8.4 5.2 7.2 11.7

2.9 2.8 3.8 4.0 4.3 4.3 3.3 3.8 4.7 7.9 3.5

2.4 2.5 3.1 3.6 3.9 5.1 2.7 3.0 3.3 6.9 2.4

H. Steinfeld / Veterinary Parasitology 125 (2004) 19–41

Ovine meat World Developing countries Sub-Saharan Africa Near East/North Africa South Asia East Asia Industrial countries Transition countries

1987/1989a

Excluding China Industrial countries Transition countries

Eggs World Developing countries Excluding China Sub-Saharan Africa Latin America Near East/North Africa South Asia East Asia Excluding China Industrial countries Transition countries

387 78 69 8 24 17 14 30 3 1 199 110 18.7 4.9 3.2 0.3 1.2 0.4 0.3 2.6 0.9 10.7 3.1

2.6 18.8 5.2 528 149 128 13 40 26 21 65 10 4 236 144 35.6 16.2 9.5 0.7 3.6 1.5 1.4 9.1 2.4 12.8 6.5

4.9 27.7 2.9 562 219 189 16 57 36 28 104 15 5 246 97 51.7 33.7 13.5 0.9 4.6 2.2 2.2 23.8 3.6 13.7 4.3

8.7 37.5 4.1 715 346 301 26 81 52 41 174 25 8 269 100 70.4 50.7 24.6 1.8 7.3 3.6 5.7 32.1 6.0 14.8 5.0

14.1 44.1 5.7 874 484 425 39 105 69 56 250 34 12 286 104 89.9 69.0 37.8 3.4 10.4 5.3 9.9 40.0 8.8 15.5 5.5

7.3 4.0 1.6

6.1 3.9 −6.7

3.4 1.8 2.0

3.2 1.1 2.3

1.3 3.6 3.5 2.7 2.6 2.2 2.3 4.5 6.9 7.3 0.7 −0.3

0.6 4.1 4.1 1.9 3.9 4.0 3.1 4.9 4.5 3.2 0.5 −4.6

1.4 2.7 2.8 3.0 2.1 2.1 2.2 3.1 2.9 3.0 0.5 0.2

1.3 2.3 2.3 2.8 1.8 1.9 2.1 2.4 2.2 2.4 0.4 0.2

3.4 7.0 5.0 3.7 4.5 6.0 6.3 8.3 5.0 0.6 0.7

4.2 8.0 3.4 2.6 2.5 4.1 4.7 10.7 3.5 0.9 −4.7

1.8 2.4 3.6 4.0 2.8 3.0 5.8 1.8 3.0 0.5 0.8

1.6 2.1 2.9 4.1 2.3 2.6 3.7 1.5 2.6 0.3 0.7

H. Steinfeld / Veterinary Parasitology 125 (2004) 19–41

Milk (whole milk eq.) World Developing countries Excluding China and Brazil Sub-Saharan Africa Latin America Excluding Brazil Near East/North Africa South Asia East Asia Excluding China Industrial countries Transition countries

0.7 8.1 1.5

Source: Bruinsma et al. (2002). a Million tonnes. b Percent pa.

27

28

H. Steinfeld / Veterinary Parasitology 125 (2004) 19–41

Milk production in industrialized and transition countries followed the same trend as egg production. Productivity can be measured by the amount of meat or milk produced per animal. More sophisticated productivity analyses based on unit of output per unit of biomass or feed input or based on financial flows are much more difficult to undertake. For example, with the shift in demand in high-income countries to meat produced under free-range conditions, lower carcass weight and off-take rate might not contradict higher net returns for the farmer in situations where a premium is paid for such products. Increased production can be derived by a combination of expansion in animal numbers and increased productivity, the latter being a compound of higher off-take rates (shorter production cycles by, for example, faster fattening), and higher carcass weight or milk and egg yields. The projections show that in the future the contribution of the expansion in the number of animals will remain important, but less so than in the past, and that higher carcass weights will play a more important role in beef production and likewise, higher off-take rates (shorter production cycles) in pig and poultry meat production. To circumvent data problems for off-take rates and carcass weights, one could compare directly meat production and herd sizes. For example, over the last decade (1989–1999), beef production in the developing countries increased by 3.8% pa, while cattle numbers increased by 1.3% (Table 3). Small ruminant production increased by 3.7% while the flock size increased by 1.5%. There are however substantial differences between regions and countries. According to the statistics, in sub-Saharan Africa the increase in cattle numbers was greater than the growth in production indicating a decline in meat productivity. In Asia, where land is scarce, growth in the herd size for cattle and buffalo was lower than the growth in output, indicating that intensification and increased productivity were relatively more important. Increases in productivity due to intensification and improved management practices were also responsible for the increases in white meat and egg production. Meat or milk output per animal, while an imperfect measure of productivity, remains higher in the developed countries than in developing ones. For example, in 1997/1999 the yield of beef per animal (carcass weight) in developing countries was 163 kg compared with 284 kg in industrialized countries, while average milk yields were 1.1 and 5.9 tonnes pa, respectively. Pork and poultry productivity levels however are more similar across regions reflecting the greater ease of transfer and adoption of production techniques. 1.4. Production systems The significant changes in the global consumption and demand for animal products, along with increasing pressures on resources are having some important implications for the principal production systems found in the developing countries. 1.4.1. Grazing systems A quarter of the world’s land is used for grazing and provides 30 and 23% of the total beef and mutton production, respectively (FAO, 1996). In developing countries extensive grazing systems have typically increased production by herd expansion rather than by substantial increases in productivity. As the availability of range lands decreases, however, due to arable land encroachment, land degradation, conflict, etc., the scope for further

Table 3 Meat production: number of animals and carcass weight Number of animals (in million)

Number of animals (percent pa)

Carcass weight (kg/animal)

1969–1999

1967/1969

1997/1999

2030

1997/1999

2030

1989–1999

1997/1999–2030

World Cattle and buffaloes Sheep and goats Pigs Poultry

1189 1444 566 5585

1418 1708 838 10731

1497 1749 873 15067

1858 2309 1062 24804

0.8 0.9 1.4 3.8

0.5 −0.1 0.3 3.4

0.7 0.9 0.6 1.6

174 14 65 1.3

198 14 78 1.6

211 17 84 1.8

Developing countries Cattle and buffaloes Sheep and goats Pigs Poultry

799 862 297 2512

1013 1121 493 6168

1156 1323 581 10544

1522 1856 761 19193

1.3 1.6 2.2 5.6

1.3 1.5 1.6 5.5

0.9 1.1 0.8 1.9

150 13 49 1.2

163 13 73 1.4

188 16 82 1.8

Sub-Saharan Africa Cattle and buffaloes Sheep and goats Pigs Poultry

130 182 6 313

159 269 13 555

200 346 18 720

285 501 27 1459

1.5 2.4 4.5 3.1

2.4 2.6 2.3 2.4

1.1 1.2 1.4 2.2

137 12 45 0.9

130 12 47 1.0

157 17 63 1.4

Latin America Cattle and buffaloes Sheep and goats Pigs Poultry

219 152 63 558

317 145 74 1248

350 119 76 2075

483 145 108 3815

1.6 −0.5 0.6 4.5

0.9 −2.5 0.1 5.7

1.0 0.6 1.1 1.9

191 15 65 1.2

211 13 72 1.5

230 16 83 1.9

Near East/North Africa Cattle and buffaloes Sheep and goats Poultry

37 205 215

37 241 722

39 256 1101

62 350 2135

0.0 0.9 6.3

0.7 0.5 4.9

1.5 1.0 2.1

107 14 1.1

158 16 1.1

194 20 1.6

South Asia Cattle and buffaloes Sheep and goats Pigs Poultry

293 148 6 232

348 241 12 472

384 289 17 717

424 405 23 2256

1.0 2.5 3.4 4.4

1.0 1.7 3.6 4.7

0.3 1.1 1.0 3.6

95 11 35 0.9

121 12 35 0.9

151 15 55 1.6

29

1987/1989

H. Steinfeld / Veterinary Parasitology 125 (2004) 19–41

1967/1969

30

Table 3 (Continued )

1967/1969

1987/1989

1997/1999

2030

Number of animals (percent pa)

Carcass weight (kg/animal)

1969–1999

1967/1969

1997/1999

2030

1989–1999

1997/1999–2030

East Asia Cattle and buffaloes Sheep and goats Pigs Poultry

121 174 221 1195

153 226 393 3171

183 312 470 5930

268 455 602 9529

1.8 2.0 2.4 6.5

2.0 3.1 1.7 6.1

1.2 1.2 0.8 1.5

147 12 47 1.3

144 13 75 1.6

176 15 83 1.8

Industrial countries Cattle and buffaloes Sheep and goats Pigs Poultry

263 397 172 2167

253 394 206 2941

254 341 210 3612

243 358 220 4325

−0.5 −0.1 0.7 1.8

0.2 −2.2 0.4 2.2

−0.1 0.2 0.1 0.6

212 16 75 1.4

284 17 85 1.8

308 20 89 2.1

Transition countries Cattle and buffaloes Sheep and goats Pigs Poultry

127 185 97 906

152 193 139 1622

87 85 81 920

94 95 82 1287

−1.0 −1.9 −0.5 0.4

−6.4 −9.3 −6.2 −6.9

0.2 0.3 0.0 1.1

144 14 77 1.3

155 15 82 1.4

170 18 84 1.6

Source: Bruinsma et al. (2002).

H. Steinfeld / Veterinary Parasitology 125 (2004) 19–41

Number of animals (in million)

H. Steinfeld / Veterinary Parasitology 125 (2004) 19–41

31

increases in production from increasing herd numbers in these systems remains limited. In global terms, the market share from these extensive systems is declining relative to other production systems. 1.4.2. Crop–livestock production systems In the developing countries, the bulk of the ruminant livestock are found in mixed farming systems, which are estimated to provide over 65% of beef production, 69% of the mutton and 92% of the cow milk (FAO, 1996). The complementarity between crop and livestock production is well known. Crops and crop residues provide feed, while livestock provide animal traction, manure, food, a form of savings or collateral, income diversification and risk reduction. Although short-cycle species, such as chickens and pigs, are often very important for household food security and immediate cash needs, only ruminants can convert highly fibrous material and forages with little or no alternative use into valuable products. An estimated 250 million work animals provide draft power for cultivation of about half the total cropland in developing countries. 1.4.3. Intensive industrialised livestock production systems The trend towards intensification is most pronounced in Asia where there is a shortage of land but a abundance of relatively cheap labour. This has encouraged small-scale intensive systems such as “cut and carry” and stall feeding, which have high labour but low land requirements. Increasing access to capital allows for investment in machinery, housing, and inputs such as improved breeds, concentrate feeds, and veterinary drugs. The consequence has been a reduction in the value of livestock’s alternative uses, as the value of its food products becomes relatively more important. This has resulted in improved productivity and has accounted for the shift from ruminant production to monogastric animals such as pigs and chickens. In sub-Saharan Africa, semi-intensive and intensive dairying has developed close to urban centres, and where agro-ecological conditions permit, on the basis of cultivated fodder and agro-industrial by-products. In Latin America, intensive poultry production and, to some extent, dairying has developed partly in response to the high level of urbanisation and a resumption of economic growth in the 1990s. Large-scale and vertically integrated intensive industrialised poultry and pig production systems, which have increased significantly in the developing world, particularly in East Asia, make use of improved genetic material and sophisticated feeding systems, and require highly skilled technical and business management. They are also dependent on inputs of high energy and protein rich feeds, animal health prophylactics, and consume considerable amounts of fossil fuel, both directly and indirectly. The wholesale transfer of these types of production systems has been facilitated by the relative ease and speed with which the required infrastructure and equipment can be transferred and operationalized in so-called ‘turn-key’ operations. In recent years, industrial livestock production grew at twice the annual rate of the more traditional, mixed farming systems (4.3 against 2.2%), and at more than six times the annual growth rate of production based on grazing (0.7%; FAO, 1996). The major expansion in industrial systems has been in the production of pigs and poultry since they have short reproductive cycles and are more efficient than ruminants in converting feed concentrates (cereals) into meat. Industrial enterprises now account for 74 and 40% of the

32

H. Steinfeld / Veterinary Parasitology 125 (2004) 19–41

world’s total poultry and pig meat production, respectively, and for 68% of egg production (FAO, 1996). 1.5. Public policy responses In this section a number of selected livestock-related issues that are expected to increase in importance over the projection period will be discussed. 1.6. Livestock, economic development and poverty alleviation A key challenge for development and poverty alleviation is the identification and promotion of broad-based income opportunities that may lead to significant pro-poor growth. Such possibilities are, unfortunately, limited. The livestock sector, however, appears to present an opportunity to enhance the livelihoods of a portion of the world’s poor. Livestock ownership currently supports and sustains the livelihoods of an estimated 675 million rural poor (livestock in development: LID, 1999). These people fully or partially depend on livestock for income and subsistence. Livestock can provide a steady stream of food and revenues, help to raise whole farm productivity and are often the only livelihood option available to the landless as they allow the exploitation of common-property resources for private gain. In addition, at the smallholder level, livestock are often the only means of asset accumulation and risk diversification that can prevent a slide into poverty by rural poor in marginal areas. Recent statistics reveal that an estimated 70% of the poor are women for whom livestock represent one of the most important assets and sources of income (DFID, 2000). Livestock ownership also tends to increase consumption of animal products and to create employment opportunities. In spite of the trend towards increasing scales of production and vertical integration, the greater part of the food, both plant and animal, consumed in developing countries is still produced by semi-subsistence farmers. The projected growth in the demand for animal products therefore offers opportunities for the rural poor since they already have a significant stake in livestock production. Unfortunately, until now the large majority the rural poor has not been able to take advantage of the opportunities presented by this demand-led growth for animal products. Thus far, the main beneficiaries of the sector trends have been a relatively small number of large producers in high potential areas with good access to markets, processors and traders, and middle class urban consumers. There are a number of factors such as various barriers, lack of competitiveness and risks, which prevent the poor from taking advantage of the available development potential. 1.6.1. Financial and technical barriers Financial barriers prevent small farmers from intensifying their production because the investment required often exceeds their capital wealth. Policies and institutions must facilitate forms of targeted small to medium-scale credit, based among others on the strengthening of property rights, to ensure the poor’s future involvement in the increasing livestock production and product processing. Technical barriers constrain small producers from efficiently supplying a safe and relatively uniform product to the market. The lack of appropriate

H. Steinfeld / Veterinary Parasitology 125 (2004) 19–41

33

infrastructure for the preservation of perishable products affects the negotiation power of small production units, particularly if these are distant from the consumption centres. In addition, technical barriers exist in the form of sanitary requirements (including animal welfare) as a prerequisite to trade. A perceived or real low animal health status may exclude countries or groups within countries from international, regional and local markets. Policies and institutions must facilitate access to technologies, goods and services that lead to the establishment of product standards and safety norms that do not exclude smaller producers, yet do not compromise public health. Lack of competitiveness resulting from a combination of higher production and transaction costs often disadvantage the small producers who do not benefit from the economies of scale associated with large-scale units. Production costs are usually higher in small-scale production enterprises, outweighing any cost advantages from the discounted value of family labour. Furthermore, there is a lack of objective data to assess the impact on small-scale producers, public health and the environment, of hidden and overt subsidies that facilitate the supply of cheap animal products to the cities. Transaction costs can be prohibitively high for small-scale producers because of the small quantities of marketable product produced and the absence of adequate physical and market infrastructures in remote areas. Transaction costs are also increased where producers lack negotiating power or access to market information and remain dependent on middlemen. Public policies are needed to develop market infrastructures that put in place appropriate information systems facilitating small-scale producers to make informed marketing decisions. Producers associations or co-operatives enable producers to benefit from the economies of scale by reducing transaction costs. Reducing risks and mitigating its effect on poor livestock-dependent people are prerequisites for a sustainable reduction in poverty. Small-scale production is associated with a mixture of both market and production risks. Market risks include price fluctuations of both inputs and products and are often associated with a weak negotiating position. While subsistence farming often has sound risk coping mechanisms, small-scale producers often lack the assets or strategies to sustain full exposure to market risks. If the poor are to fully participate in the market, safety nets are needed to cope with the economic shocks invariably present in free markets. Production risks originate in resource degradation, in extreme weather events such as droughts and floods, and in infectious diseases. Although both small-scale and intensive livestock production systems are at risk from the ravages of epidemic diseases and droughts, the poor are particularly vulnerable to these types of shocks due to their limited assets and the lack of insurance schemes. Public and private services in disaster-prone poor countries almost invariably lack the capacity to plan for such risks, or to respond in a timely manner. Building up such response capacity of communities and institutions is important, and drought and disease preparedness strategies need to be an integral part of public policy. Development interventions in the livestock sector have, generally, not been very successful. Undoubtedly, inappropriate technologies and the failure to deliver services to poor farmers have contributed greatly to the lack of success of many livestock development projects. However, even in cases where the technologies were appropriately targeted and the focus was distinctly pro-poor, technical projects have in many cases failed to deliver

34

H. Steinfeld / Veterinary Parasitology 125 (2004) 19–41

any significant sustainable improvements in the livelihoods of the poor. Analyses of these issues clearly indicate that an enabling institutional and political environment is indispensable in adopting a pro-poor focus, enhancing the sustainability of pro-poor interventions, and ensuring that agricultural intensification strategies have impact at the desired social levels (LID, 1999; IFAD, 2001).

2. Livestock, environment and animal genetic diversity 2.1. Environmental issues Even though there are substantial positive and beneficial environmental aspects associated with keeping livestock, there remain many contentious issues that have to be addressed. Pollution of land, water, and air from intensive livestock production and processing in both developed and developing countries has raised awareness of the environmental problems associated with this type of production. This pollution, apart from causing direct damage to the environment can also become a major vehicle for disease transmission. Examples of livestock-related environmental impacts are: • Land degradation as the result of a complex interaction involving the restriction of livestock movement, land tenure, crop encroachment and fuelwood collection is particularly evident in the semi-arid lands of Africa and the Indian sub-continent. Changing land tenure, conflict, settlement and incentive policies have, in many cases, undermined traditional land use practices and exacerbated the situation. Current thinking suggests that earlier reports of widespread irreversible degradation exaggerated the extent of the problem, although it would be wrong to underestimate the problems and there is no reason for complacency. • Deforestation associated with commercial ranching was responsible for the destruction of vast areas of rainforest, with a serious loss of biodiversity. The problem arose from policies that promoted inappropriate ranching and has been largely, but not exclusively, confined to Central and South America. • Pollution of soils and water bodies occurs where waste products, notably manure and associated effluents, exceed either the absorptive capacity of land and water or the available infrastructure for its safe disposal. Many of these problems are associated with industrial production systems in the developed world. Similar problems however also exist in developing countries and are expected to increase and be made worse by the lack of environmental regulations or their enforcement. • Animals are also associated with “global warming”. Domesticated livestock produce directly and indirectly: carbon dioxide (CO2 ) and methane (CH4 ) along with small quantities of ozone (O3 ) and nitrous oxide (N2 O), the so-called “greenhouse gases”. Technologies are available that can limit emissions per unit of product given that appropriate incentives for their use are put in place. The key is to increase productivity through improved nutrition that reduces emissions per unit of product. Conversely, the extensive pastoral and agro-forestry ecosystems also absorb large quantities of CO2 and provide an important “sink” in the carbon cycle.

H. Steinfeld / Veterinary Parasitology 125 (2004) 19–41

35

• Loss of biodiversity is an issue with some 600 breeds of domestic animals risking extinction and further erosion of many traditional and locally adapted breeds. The consequence is an increasing dependency on a narrowing genetic resource base, facilitated by biotechnologies such as artificial insemination, which allows easy transfer of genetic material across international borders. Technology can offer solutions to many of these problems, but without the removal of policy distortions and the adoption and reinforcement of appropriate regulations, such measures are unlikely to be implemented by producers that currently do not bear the cost of the externalities caused by their production methods. Concerns about the long-term productivity of natural resources, including land, water and air will not be reflected in market prices unless consumers demand it and unless the public and private sector respond by defining and establishing mechanisms that correctly reflect the present and future value of natural resources. Although there is no doubt that rapidly increasing livestock production, especially in industrial farming systems in fragile areas can cause serious damage to the environment, historically, mixed crop–livestock systems have been the basis for agricultural intensification. In these systems, livestock not only accelerate nutrient turnover, but they also provide a mechanism to import and concentrate nutrients, which is key to their sustainability and intensification. Livestock also perform important functions in landscape and ecosystem maintenance. On the other hand, poverty-led degradation is occurring in semi-arid and humid environments due to increased population pressure, ill-defined resource access, and poor access to markets and financial services. Degradation reinforces poverty by reducing the productivity of shared resources and by increasing vulnerability. Widespread land degradation in the form of deforestation and overgrazing, in addition to the associated biodiversity losses, are often linked to livestock production activities.

3. Trade in livestock and livestock products Increased trade in livestock and livestock products is associated with increased risks of international spread of animal diseases, zoonoses and food-borne infections. The changing international environment has resulted in an increasing demand for food safety and sanitary assurances to facilitate international trade. At the same time there is also an increased demand to provide safe and wholesome food for household and national consumption. The challenge to meet and satisfy both demands especially in developing countries is enormous. These challenges are particularly serious for poor livestock producers seeking access to the expanding livestock commodity markets. Countries have in response to these concerns encouraged initiatives towards regional and multilateral trade agreements reducing government support for the farming sector and liberalizing market access and the establishment of science-based food safety regulations in terms of the sanitary and phytosanitary standards (SPS) under the Uruguay Round global trade accord. Following on this, the Agreement on SPS of the WTO aims to eliminate the use of unjustified, unscientific regulations to restrict trade. Under the new rules, countries

36

H. Steinfeld / Veterinary Parasitology 125 (2004) 19–41

maintain the right to set their desired level of protection or ‘acceptable risk’ of food safety and animal and plant health, but are obliged to either adhere to international standards, or, when setting their own standards, to provide the scientific backing of the latter. This right has been utilized and put to the test mostly by developed countries. However, relatively untested, the national standards, as well as some of the international standards may be subject of difficult and contentious trade disputes in the new millennium and will also exert increasing pressure on the delivery of veterinary public health services in both developed and developing countries. Recent disputes between countries under the SPS Agreement, have already given rise to accusations of protectionism through the creation of non-tariff barriers to trade. They have also created a confusing perception of different sets of standards applied to quality and food safety, and hygiene requirements. Guidance on an appropriate balance between trade standards, consumer demands and quality, while providing developing nations with an opportunity to export and grow their way out of poverty is essential. Trade in livestock products has also been facilitated through the proliferation of cold chain facilities across the globe, and the cost reductions for the construction, operation and maintenance of such equipment. This has not only made transportation of fresh livestock products technically feasible and accessible to a much larger group of nations but also greatly reduced the costs of transportation. Although previously such developments may have constituted an additional incentive for agribusinesses to move their production to countries where labour, environmental and public health regulations are less stringent, increasingly, changes in consumer demands and international regulations are no longer conducive to such behaviour. The adoption of more strict food sanitation regulations and the associated labelling and certification requirements, demands controls and investment to a level of infrastructural sophistication that may be difficult to achieve in most developing countries in the near future. Additional factors in the above-mentioned equation are the costs and risks related to the transport of animal feed vis-à-vis livestock products. Shipment of animal feeds, in livestock product equivalent units, is still significantly cheaper than the shipment of livestock products. In addition, livestock feeds are far less perishable than and thus less risky to transport than fresh livestock products. 3.1. Intensification: risks and consumer choices 3.1.1. Food safety and emerging zoonoses Access to a safe and healthy food products is an important public good. Animal products, especially animal fat, are linked with human health risks, but the risk is only associated with gross over-consumption. At low to moderate intakes, meat, milk and egg products are highly beneficial providing essential amino acids, minerals and vitamins. Indeed, an increase in consumption of animal products in developing countries would be highly desirable in combating malnutrition. With growing densities of livestock, particularly in peri-urban and urban areas, changing animal feeding practices (sourcing of inputs from distant areas), and shifts in dietary habits, there is a growing concern regarding the transmission of diseases and general food safety. Concerns range from the traditional zoonotic diseases (brucellosis, trichinellosis, etc.), to

H. Steinfeld / Veterinary Parasitology 125 (2004) 19–41

37

microbial contamination of food (salmonella, E. coli, etc.) and to emerging diseases that can affect both livestock and humans (e.g. Nipah, avian flu). Changes in production systems resulting in specialisation, intensification or diversification may increase the risk and change the pattern of disease transmission. The recent upsurge of human cysticercosis in Eastern and Southern Africa following the expansion in pork production is an example of how a zoonotic disease may become a significant risk when production systems change without concomitant changes in veterinary public health regulations and their enforcement. A related issue is the changing feeding practices and in particular the safety of animal feed. Certain livestock diseases (zoonoses) can also affect humans, e.g. brucellosis and tuberculosis, and new zoonoses may originate from livestock populations. The potential dangers are clearly demonstrated by the emergence of BSE in cattle and its ramifications for human health (variant Creutzfeld-Jakob disease) and the livestock industry. Furthermore, it is estimated that new diseases have been detected at the rate of one a year over the last 30 years. Meat, milk and eggs are perishable products and susceptible to contamination by microbes, some of which, such as salmonella and E. coli reside in the intestinal tract of food producing animals. Consequently, inappropriate handling, slaughter hygiene, processing and preservation throughout the food chain can result in contamination and propagation of microbes and thus lead to serious health risks to the consumer. Although many microbial contaminants are of no or little effect if the products are prepared appropriately, product contamination is the leading reason for the ever-increasing sanitary standards imposed on post-harvest processing and transport facilities. Stricter regulations, combined with a growing number of affluent consumers that are prepared to pay a premium for organic or free-range livestock products, are likely to continue to have a lasting effect on production methods, particularly in the developed countries. Changes in production methods will include the application of pre-harvest food safety programmes through the implementation of the hazard analysis critical control point (HACCP) concept at farm level from breeding to the slaughterhouse gate and concomitant pathogen reduction or elimination programmes along the production chain, such as the elimination of S. enteritidis from breeder flocks and subsequent S. enteritidis-free chickens that go into production. Food safety also concerns the issue of biological and chemical contaminants. Aflatoxins, for example, are of major importance in humid and warm environments and drug residues are another major category of contaminants. In order to improve food safety along the entire food production and processing chain, from feed production to the supermarket shelf, basic food quality control systems are evolving into quality assurance systems, which in turn are moving towards total quality management (TQM) systems. The costs of compliance with these systems are elevated and will lead to further concentration and integration of the food chain. 3.1.2. Anti-microbials and hormones Anti-microbials are widely employed in the livestock sector, both for therapeutic purposes and for growth promotion. It is common practice in modern, high animal density farming systems to supplement feed with sub-therapeutic doses of anti-microbials to enhance growth

38

H. Steinfeld / Veterinary Parasitology 125 (2004) 19–41

rates. The constant exposure to anti-microbials, however, promotes the development of microbes resistant to those drugs. Anti-microbial resistance in pathogens from farm animals can be passed on to bacteria of humans through the exchange of genetic material between micro-organisms thus increasing public health costs through the necessary use of more expensive drugs for treatment and longer hospital stays. The problem of antibiotic resistance is compounded by the fact that no truly novel antibiotics have been developed over the last decade. While it is recognised that most anti-microbial resistance in human pathogens stems from inadequate use of these compounds in human medicine, evidence suggests that the use of anti-microbials in the livestock sector plays a contributing role. The WHO has recently called for a ban on the practice of giving healthy animals low doses of antibiotics to improve their productivity, and the EU has implemented a partial ban on six antibiotics that are also used in the treatment of humans. Although such moves are strongly opposed by livestock producers, they are likely to gain momentum, particularly in the light of consumer demands. In 1998, the Danish poultry industry decided to voluntarily discontinue the use of all anti-microbial growth promoters despite concerns that this would result in decreased productivity and increased mortality. Contrary to expectations, mortality was not affected and the feed-conversion ratio only increased marginally. Similar steps have been taken by the UK’s largest poultry producer. Hormones that increase feed conversion efficiency are used in many parts of the world, particularly in the beef and pig industry. Although no negative impacts on human health as a result of their correct application have been scientifically proven, the EU, partly in response to consumer pressure, takes a strict stand on the use of hormones in livestock production, which has led to major trade disputes between the EU and the US. These examples show, that consumer concerns will increasingly influence not only the quality of the end product, but also the ways in which it is produced. 3.1.3. Animal health Infectious and parasitic diseases of livestock remain important constraints to more productive and profitable livestock production in many developing regions. Diseases directly reduce farm incomes by causing considerable losses in both production and stock as well as forcing farmers to spend money (and labour) on their control and indirectly by placing restrictions on exports. Infectious diseases such as rinderpest, foot and mouth disease, contagious bovine pleuropneunomia, classical and African swine fever and peste des petits ruminants are still major threats to livestock production in developing countries and, through increased movements of livestock, livestock products and people, also to livestock production in developed countries. Although, for example, the global eradication of rinderpest by 2010 remains an achievable goal, these epizootic diseases can only be gradually brought under control through intensive, internationally co-ordinated animal health programmes. There has been a major shift away from countrywide eradication programmes towards more flexible control strategies, where interventions are focused on areas offering the highest returns. Risk analysis and animal health economics help determine where disease control investment will have the greatest impact and benefit. Because of the large externalities of outbreaks of these diseases, management of their control remains a public sector responsibility.

H. Steinfeld / Veterinary Parasitology 125 (2004) 19–41

39

However, many developing countries do not have effective veterinary institutions capable of the task and public funding for disease control has been on the decline over the last decades. Among the parasitic diseases, trypanosomosis (sleeping sickness) poses an enormous constraint to cattle production in most of the humid and sub-humid zones of Africa. Flexible combinations of aerial spraying, adhesive pyretheroid insecticides, impregnated screens and traps, and Sterile Insect Techniques (SIT), supported by use of trypanocidal drugs, hold the promise of gradually recovering infested areas for mixed farming. It is likely that the impact of these strategies on crop output, through the introduction of mixed farming and on human welfare (by preventing sleeping sickness, providing higher and more stable incomes, improved nutrition) will provide much greater benefits than the increased livestock output alone. From a production viewpoint, helminthosis and tick-borne diseases are particularly important. Helminths (worms) while rarely fatal can seriously affect productivity and profitability. Although helminths can be effectively controlled, parasite resistance to drugs through the inappropriate use of antihelmintics is a growing constraint. Ticks have the capacity to transmit diseases, notably East Coast Fever in Eastern and Southern African countries, but the cost of traditional dipping with acaracides for tick control is becoming prohibitive and raises environmental concerns about disposal of the waste chemical. As production systems intensify, diseases affecting reproductive performance such as brucellosis or nutritional imbalances will also assume greater importance. Intensification of livestock production is thus going to face growing animal health constraints both from epidemic and endemic disease agents. Biotechnology offers the promise of solving some of the technical constraints through improved prevention, diagnosis and treatment of animal disease. Genomics, for example, may well contribute to the development of new generations of vaccines using recombinant antigens to pathological agents. A far wider range of effective, easy to use (vaccines that do not require a cold chain) and economic vaccines can be expected in the future while the development of cost-effective, robust pen-side diagnostics will enhance the veterinary services offered in developing countries. The technological advances will however need to be matched by enhanced epidemiological and logistical capacities as well as by greatly improved co-ordination of all institutions involved in animal disease control from the local to the national and up to the international level. 3.1.4. Animal welfare If unregulated, intensification of livestock production is associated with animal management practices (e.g. space, light, and movement limitations) which do not allow the expression of natural behavioural features to the animals. Such practices associated with real and suggested animal suffering are increasingly resented in more affluent societies. Similar reservations are also expressed, for example, with respect to animal transportation to markets and slaughter over large distances, and to certain feeding and medication practices, etc. Links have also been identified between genetic selection for increased weight in broilers and animal health problems, namely skeletal and circulatory systems taxed by the rate of muscle formation leading to increased rates of heart failure and broken limbs.

40

H. Steinfeld / Veterinary Parasitology 125 (2004) 19–41

Particularly in the developed world, such concerns are likely to have an increasing influence on production systems over the projected period, a trend that is already reflected in EU regulations regarding the minimum cage sizes for battery hens.

4. Concluding remarks Increasing population, urbanisation and disposable incomes in developing countries are fuelling a strong growth in demand for animal food products, which in turn will have a strong impact on the location and organisation of livestock production. Changes in the latter will in turn strongly impinge on animal and human health, the livelihoods of the poor and the environment. The consequences of these trends are expected to be: • a major increase in the developing countries’ share in world livestock production and consumption; • a gradual substitution of cereals and other basic foods with meat and milk in the developing countries’ diets; • a change, but at varying rates according to the region, from multiple production objectives to more specialised intensive meat, milk and egg production within an integrated global food and feed market; • a rapid technological change and a shift to more industrial production and processing; • a rapid rise in the use of cereal-based animal feeds; and • greater stresses on fragile extensive pastoral areas and more pressure on land in areas with very high population densities and close to urban centres. • The future holds both opportunities as well as serious pitfalls for animal production in developing countries. There is a danger that livestock production and processing will become dominated by integrated large-scale commercial operations, displacing small-scale livestock farmers and thus exacerbating rural poverty and malnutrition. Furthermore, uncontrolled expansion of highly intensive animal production could have major environmental consequences. On the other hand, correctly managed, a dynamic livestock sector could prove catalytic in stimulating rural economies. However, the livestock sector will not take on this role on its own but requires pro-active policies on behalf of the private and public sector that will: ◦ remove policy distortions that artificially increase the economies of scale to the disadvantage of the small-scale producer; ◦ build the institutional and infrastructural capacities that will allow small-scale rural producers to successfully compete and integrate within the developing livestock industry; ◦ provide a conducive environment, through public sector investment where necessary, to allow producers to increase production through improved efficiency and productivity; and ◦ effectively reduce the threat of environmental, animal and human health risks. In the absence of such pro-active development policies, the impact of the increased demand for livestock products in terms of increased security of safe food supplies, environmental protection and poverty reduction will be far less favourable.

H. Steinfeld / Veterinary Parasitology 125 (2004) 19–41

41

References DFID, 2000. Halving world poverty by 2015, economic growth, equity and security. Strategies for achieving the international development targets. DFID Strategy Paper, London (www.dfid.gov.uk/public/what/ pdf/tsp economic.pdf). FAO, 1996. World livestock production systems: current status, issues and trends. FAO Animal Production and Health Paper 127, FAO, Rome. IFAD, 2001. Rural Poverty Report 2001. Oxford University Press, Oxford. LID, 1999. Livestock in Poverty-Focussed Development. Crewkerne, Somerset, UK.