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The man-made future
248
Books
claims for the method’s powers were, perhaps inevitably, exaggerated; disillusionment soon set in. This is most regrettable, for although TA cannot be the complete answer to all problems of misapplied technology and undesirable or undesired social effects of technology, it can make a serious contribution to improving the quality of decision making about technology. The
search for generality
From the beginning of TA, its practitioners have been obsessed with methodology-reminiscent of the quest for the Philosopher’s Stone. The present volume continues this trend, in that it seeks the common features of many diverse TA studies and seems to force the studies into a framework which they refuse to fit. The results of this attempt are a little unfortunate; an air of pessimism pervades the book, because so many of the assessments neither fit the pattern nor fulfil the wild expectations. An overemphasis on methodology also makes the book somewhat turgid. Perhaps the nameless author thought that making reading hard work was
good for the soul of the reader, or beneficial to scientific respectability. The book starts with an “Overview and synthesis”, which tries to analyse and categorise the studies reviewed later in the volume. The attempt does not succeed, and the reader would be better off to read the beginning last rather than first. All 15 of the studies that follow are classed as social assessments of technology, but cover an enormous range of divergent topics and aims. The studies range from straightforward appraisals eg of “New technologies for harmless disposal of wastes” to an obscure study of “Work in America”. One thing that all the descriptions do have in common, at least for me, is that they give a lot of detail of how the study was carried out, but leave the question, “What was it all about and what were the main tantalisingly unanswered. results ?“, The appetite is whetted, the curiosity not satisfied. Although any serious student of TA cannot afford to miss this book, it is an unsatisfactory work and it will do little towards the urgent task of putting TA in perspective.
The danger of simplicity J. Christopher Jones The Man-Made Future C. H. Waddington 355 pages, kg.95 (London, Croom Helm, 1978) Tools for Thought C. H. Waddington 250 pages, E5.95 (London, Cape,
Jonathan
1977)
textbooks for generalists, in universities and elsewhere, provide the clearest and most sensible descriptions I have seen of “the ecological and political problems facing Earth” and of the various new techniques for studying them. He writes in plain English. l
Professor Waddington was perhaps the most perceptive and widely informed person to take up futures research. These two books, which he wrote as
l l
.J. Christopher Jones is a member advisory board.
of Futures
A chemical contraceptive added to some staple food-stuff . . . official permit . . . for antidote . . . 14-15 times as much oxygen in lime, chalk, etc as . . . in the atmosphere. Selected cows’ eggs can be cloned to produce 30 or more identical calves [a diagram].
FUTURES
June 1979
Books
l
Gross National Product is closely related to energy consumption [a
graphI.
l l
l
l l
l
l
l
Service networks. . . rigidify structure of a city. The differing journey times between centres by air, rail, road, city hovercraft [a graph]. Fixing of prices, wages . . . investment will probably be done on a computer not by committee. Defective embryos could be detected at an early stage and aborted. toxic Methods . . . for removing substances cannot be adopted by any manufacturer unless his competitors are made to adopt them also. There have been some frightening incidents in radar detection of possible enemy attacks . . . Developing countries should think hard about the losses as well as the gains . . . in the establishing of mass industries in their territories. The accusation against the Meadows world simulation was that it was an uncontrolled mechanistic system (not adaptive as are biological sys-
tems) .
FUTURES
effects of each action upon the whole. Tools for Thought is Waddington’s review of how to do this. l l
l
l
l
l
l
l
l
Those 12 remarks are selected randomly from each of the 12 chapters of The Man-Made Future, and slightly paraphrased. He claims, I think rightly, that his is the first serious attempt to free futurology from jargon and to present the complexities of ‘the world problem’ in language that everyone can understand. His simplifications are not those of a layman or journalist but those of a practical biologist, well-accustomed to complexity and how to deal with it. He points out that what is novel about world problems, their interdependence, comes of the increased power of human action. Simple cause-and-effect relations hold only when our actions are feeble, affecting only one thing at a time. Specialised knowledge is a poor guide. To navigate now one must know the
June 1978
249
Games theory is not a very effective tool in practice. Epigenetics describes the spontaneous growth of diversity in what was initially simple, eg a village becoming a city. There are simple generating processes for many apparently complex systems. Many estimates for strengths of interactions (eg in world models) are unreliable. Human beliefs often derive from holy writ or classical authorsseldom from observation. In logarithmic growth of any scale, half the total will be alive at any time-it is naive to think otherwise. There is a mathematical reason for the unprofitability of long-term ininvestment in times of economic growth. Simplified mental models are the only way in which we can deal with complexity. Strikes, revolutions, etc can be compared to logical inhibition or repression of growth.
Those topics are selected randomly from the book: his review of complexity, and how to think about it. Waddington’s descriptions remove much mystery from the concepts and models used in technological forecasting, statistics, information theory, classical science and biology. He reveals that many of these are less effective than is his own plain thinking, his ability to spot the weak points. But, and it is a big but, the oversimple reduction of everything in life, to fit what can be measured and rationally described, leaves out of account the very ability that enabled Professor Waddington to write these books. So his picture of complexity, though rational and clear, is less than human.
Books
claims for the method’s powers were, perhaps inevitably, exaggerated; disillusionment soon set in. This is most regrettable, for although TA cannot be the complete answer to all problems of misapplied technology and undesirable or undesired social effects of technology, it can make a serious contribution to improving the quality of decision making about technology. The
search for generality
From the beginning of TA, its practitioners have been obsessed with methodology-reminiscent of the quest for the Philosopher’s Stone. The present volume continues this trend, in that it seeks the common features of many diverse TA studies and seems to force the studies into a framework which they refuse to fit. The results of this attempt are a little unfortunate; an air of pessimism pervades the book, because so many of the assessments neither fit the pattern nor fulfil the wild expectations. An overemphasis on methodology also makes the book somewhat turgid. Perhaps the nameless author thought that making reading hard work was
good for the soul of the reader, or beneficial to scientific respectability. The book starts with an “Overview and synthesis”, which tries to analyse and categorise the studies reviewed later in the volume. The attempt does not succeed, and the reader would be better off to read the beginning last rather than first. All 15 of the studies that follow are classed as social assessments of technology, but cover an enormous range of divergent topics and aims. The studies range from straightforward appraisals eg of “New technologies for harmless disposal of wastes” to an obscure study of “Work in America”. One thing that all the descriptions do have in common, at least for me, is that they give a lot of detail of how the study was carried out, but leave the question, “What was it all about and what were the main tantalisingly unanswered. results ?“, The appetite is whetted, the curiosity not satisfied. Although any serious student of TA cannot afford to miss this book, it is an unsatisfactory work and it will do little towards the urgent task of putting TA in perspective.
The danger of simplicity J. Christopher Jones The Man-Made Future C. H. Waddington 355 pages, kg.95 (London, Croom Helm, 1978) Tools for Thought C. H. Waddington 250 pages, E5.95 (London, Cape,
Jonathan
1977)
textbooks for generalists, in universities and elsewhere, provide the clearest and most sensible descriptions I have seen of “the ecological and political problems facing Earth” and of the various new techniques for studying them. He writes in plain English. l
Professor Waddington was perhaps the most perceptive and widely informed person to take up futures research. These two books, which he wrote as
l l
.J. Christopher Jones is a member advisory board.
of Futures
A chemical contraceptive added to some staple food-stuff . . . official permit . . . for antidote . . . 14-15 times as much oxygen in lime, chalk, etc as . . . in the atmosphere. Selected cows’ eggs can be cloned to produce 30 or more identical calves [a diagram].
FUTURES
June 1979
Books
l
Gross National Product is closely related to energy consumption [a
graphI.
l l
l
l l
l
l
l
Service networks. . . rigidify structure of a city. The differing journey times between centres by air, rail, road, city hovercraft [a graph]. Fixing of prices, wages . . . investment will probably be done on a computer not by committee. Defective embryos could be detected at an early stage and aborted. toxic Methods . . . for removing substances cannot be adopted by any manufacturer unless his competitors are made to adopt them also. There have been some frightening incidents in radar detection of possible enemy attacks . . . Developing countries should think hard about the losses as well as the gains . . . in the establishing of mass industries in their territories. The accusation against the Meadows world simulation was that it was an uncontrolled mechanistic system (not adaptive as are biological sys-
tems) .
FUTURES
effects of each action upon the whole. Tools for Thought is Waddington’s review of how to do this. l l
l
l
l
l
l
l
l
Those 12 remarks are selected randomly from each of the 12 chapters of The Man-Made Future, and slightly paraphrased. He claims, I think rightly, that his is the first serious attempt to free futurology from jargon and to present the complexities of ‘the world problem’ in language that everyone can understand. His simplifications are not those of a layman or journalist but those of a practical biologist, well-accustomed to complexity and how to deal with it. He points out that what is novel about world problems, their interdependence, comes of the increased power of human action. Simple cause-and-effect relations hold only when our actions are feeble, affecting only one thing at a time. Specialised knowledge is a poor guide. To navigate now one must know the
June 1978
249
Games theory is not a very effective tool in practice. Epigenetics describes the spontaneous growth of diversity in what was initially simple, eg a village becoming a city. There are simple generating processes for many apparently complex systems. Many estimates for strengths of interactions (eg in world models) are unreliable. Human beliefs often derive from holy writ or classical authorsseldom from observation. In logarithmic growth of any scale, half the total will be alive at any time-it is naive to think otherwise. There is a mathematical reason for the unprofitability of long-term ininvestment in times of economic growth. Simplified mental models are the only way in which we can deal with complexity. Strikes, revolutions, etc can be compared to logical inhibition or repression of growth.
Those topics are selected randomly from the book: his review of complexity, and how to think about it. Waddington’s descriptions remove much mystery from the concepts and models used in technological forecasting, statistics, information theory, classical science and biology. He reveals that many of these are less effective than is his own plain thinking, his ability to spot the weak points. But, and it is a big but, the oversimple reduction of everything in life, to fit what can be measured and rationally described, leaves out of account the very ability that enabled Professor Waddington to write these books. So his picture of complexity, though rational and clear, is less than human.