The Middle East military balance, 1990–1991

Brief Reviews declassified U.S. intelligence products (most specitically, purloined Soviet military writings on doctrine and policy). He concludes that their procedures and hardware gave Soviet leaders a tighter rein on nuclear weapons. Had war occurred, their military command would have maintained a highly centralized command and control. As with any first accounts, this one is likely to be revised and refeed, but Blair has set a high standard for evidence and research. Also, Blair gets brownie points as an analyst as well as a historian. Even though he wrote this book at a time when most pundits thought Ukraine would disarm, Blair correctly predicted Kiev would try to keep its nukes. Blair based his assesment on Ukraine’s organizational and control capabilities. Blair offers twenty options for limiting the risk of nuclear war. His leaning toward negotiated limits and cooperation depends heavily on the survival of friendly regimes in Russia. It is probably best to push hard for such cooperative measures while we can, but be prepared to deal with the worst. The Mid&Ue East Military Balance, 1990-1991. Edited by Shlomo Gazit. Boulder, Colo.: Westview, 1992.479 pp. $74.5O.AftertheStorfnzTheChanging Militaty Balance in t&e Middle East. By Anthony Cordesman. Boulder, Colo.: Westview, 1993. 811 pp. $65.00. Two institutions-the Jaffee Center for Strategic Studies and Anthony Cordesman-ontinue their tradition of producing authoritative tomes on Middle East military issues. litheMiddle East Milita y Balance has appeared annually since 1983 and constitutes the most reliable, detailed source on the makeup of military forces from Morocco to Iran. In addition, it contains several articles of analysis; the current volume devotes five articles to the war for Kuwait and five to such issues as the strategic implications of Soviet Jewry to Israel, and the tightening Syrian grip on Lebanon. lqfter the Storm offers a one-man (and perhaps one-time) version of the Jaffee Center’s volume, with both the advantages and the quirks this implies. On the minus side, A&T the Stoma has a n&h-mash quality. Some sentences are very much up to date (mid-1992); others refer to the Soviets in the present tense and provide references from 1986. Important insights appear unpredictably amid a welter of minutiae. On the plus side, when Cordesman steps back from the data, he can analyze the whole of the Middle East in a synoptic fashion, discerning trends in a way no one else can (for instance: there is “little correlation between the volume of high technology arms imports and high casualties”). Also, whereas the Jaffee Center lists stark figures, Cordesman discusses background and draws out trends. In sum, the two books complement each other nicely: if 7&e Middle ,!?u.st~ilita~ Balance is the movie, A@ the Storm offers a very detailed still D.P. picture. Nuclear Proliferation and the FL&UTZof Con.f&& By Martin van Creveld. New York: Free Press, 1993. 200 pp* $22.95. Van Creveld notes a paradox: though Western strategic specialists believe nuclear deterrence works in the developed world and that it may be more

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