The Modern Approach to Sub-Regional Planning

THE MODERN APPROACH TO SUB-REGIONAL PLANNIN G Andrew Thorburn, B.Sc., A.M.T.P.I. Director, NottinghamshirejDerbyshire SubRegional Study.

This article outlines the process of planning at the level above the local authority. It is concerned with planning regional development and major urban expansion. This involves plotting the future pattern of roads and buildings -factories, houses, shopping centres etc. The author explains how a planning t.nlit works to ·. prepare plans dealing with the development of a region over a period of 10-20 years. He discusses the collection of information about building and agricultural land, the quality of the urban environment, forecasts of population and of economic growth, the building of a computer data bank to process the information, the use of analytical techniques such as mathematical models to examine the data; finally, the preparation and presentation of the plan.

Andrew Thorburn is Director of what outside Britain would be called a Regional Study, i.e. a planning unit bigger than an individual town or city. He has worked in regional planning for 15 years, and is well known for his writing on village planning. The study which he is at present directing c~vers the largest "sub region" so far studied in Britain.

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D regional planning studies have been commissioned for about URING

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twenty-five areas in Britain, each larger than an individual town or city, but smaller than the Economic Planning Regions. Similar studies in other countries are usually called regional studies and this term would have been used here before the advent of the Planning Regions. Most studies are initiated because either there appears to be an opportunity for major urban expansion, or there is a problem such as severe road congestion, which can best be evaluated in this way. Perhaps the best known of these studies are those whose purpose is to examine the feasibility of putting a major increase of population in a given sub-region. These include the studies of the SouthamptonPortsmouth Area.\ published 1967, Humberside and Severnside (Dept. of Economic Affairs, not yet published), Tayside, Central Lancashire 2 (1968), and Newbury/Didcot/Swindona (1966). Similar studies have been carried out on the feasibility of expanding a number of individual towns. In Britain, there are hardly any circumstances in which development is not feasible, and hence the result of each of these studies so far, has been a report setting out suggestions on how

the additional population should be located, what is a reasonable rate of growth, and what special difficulties will have to be overcome if development is to go ahead. In each case the majority of these suggestions, but not all, have been followed. Other sub-regional studies have as their purpose the preparation of a long term plan for an area embracing all or part of the territory · of' 'several different 'local planning authorities, and therefore beyond the control of any single authority. The plan will normally set out proposals for the future location of housing, industry, offices, shopping centres, major recreational facilities and main roads; and may include other matters such as green belt policies, major urban renewal opportunities, or schemes to attract industry. Such plans have been published for Belfast4 (1963), the Bournemouth/Poole Area 5 (1967), Dublin (1966), Cardiffe {1967-8), Leicester and Leicestershire7 (1969), Teesside8 {1969), The Lothians 9 (1966), The Central Borders 1o MidWales.11 Almost all these studies have been initiated by central government in consultation with the local planning authorities concerned, but detailed arrangements and the sources of funds vary from one to another. All are advisory in character but they are intended as a basis LONG RANGE PLANNING

for action. In this they differ from the welter of studies and plans for regional development recently published by both official bodies and other interested parties, which are intended to promote discussion rather than to guide action. At the level of Economic Planning Regions, the in-

formation needed to form regional plans, and the governmental agencies to implment them are not yet available except in Scotland, Wales, Northern Ireland and the North East, wherein White Papers proposing growth points provide a basis for present policies.

FIGURE 1. PLANNIN G LEVELS

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LEVELS OF PLANNIN G The relationship between sub-regional planning and the other levels at which physical and economic planning are carried out is shown in Figure 1. This represents the size of plan areas as a continuum from the individual site to the country as a whole, and indicates that the larger the area the more planning tends to be economic rather than physical in character. Levels of planning can be struck at any intervals on this continuum which are convenient, but they normally arise from the size of governmental units, except at the bottom of the scale. Sub-regions tend to have much the same range of size as counties, but rather different boundaries, and many of the techniques used in subregional studies are common practice in some County Council Planning Departments. It is possible that local government re-organisation will reduce the need for sub-regional planning. Sub-regional planning lies at about the level where physical and economic considerations are of equal importance. It can lead to direct allocations of land for development, to major investment decisions by government or local government, and to changes in coi?-trols over industrial location and other pnvate sector investment. However, as the plans are 61

advisory t!lis is normally achieved by embodying specific recommendations in the plans and programmes of the authorities and agencies concerned. The sub-regional plan serves to initiate, coordinate and perhaps reconcile these separate plans and programmes, but is not used as a formal administrative tool, unlike a statutory development plan. SUB-REGIONAL PLANNING ORGANISATIONS

At present sub-regional planning is carried out as a one-off exercise by consultants, or a team specially set up for the purpose by either direct recruitment or secondment from the authorities and departments concerned. Consultants have the advantage of a highly flexible force of skilled professionals, and a certain independence from the interests of any particular authority. Special teams, which are now becoming more common, can work closely with existing departments, under the supervision of the chief officers, and this tends to commit the people who have to implement the plan. They feel it is their own plan and are more likely to carry it through after the team who prepared it have disappeared from the scene. The consultancy or team carrying out the work is normally headed by a chartered town planner and embraces skills in economics,

sociology, geography, architecture, traffic engineering, statistics and systems analysis. As an example, my own team consists of fifteen professionally qualified people and supporting staff, and is responsible to the four planning authorities in Nettinghamshire and Derbyshire. We have about eighteen months in which to prepare a plan for an area of I ,500 square miles, with an existing population of one and three-quarter millions, which is the largest sub-region studied in Britain so far. It has become the convention for subregional plans to look forward as far as the end of the century. The reason for this is that buildings and roads constructed now will still be in use at that time and as far as possible should be located in patterns likely to suit conditions about a generation ahead as well as the present. Moreover, sub-regwnal plans do not have any effect until at least seven years after they are prepared owing to the time required for the acquisition of land, design and construction processes, in both the private and public sector. Planning of the built environment therefore tends to be much longer term than in most other spheres, with consequent added problems of forecasting requirements, and of achieving flexibility. INFORMATION COLLECTION The preparation of a sub-regional plan

starts with the simultaneous collection of data needed for a number of different purposes (see Figure 2). One of these purposes is the assessment of constraints upon development of the land in the subregion which is not built-up at present. For agricultural land, the Ministry of Agriculture provides a five-point classification of inherent potential based on factors such as soil types, climate and drainage. The land graded most highly is that which produces good yields in all conditions and which can most easily be adapted to any changes in crop types or farming practice. It is normally accepted that development should not take place on the two upper grades of this classification but exceptions to this are occasionally necessary. The Nature Conservancy are now making a similar classification of the ecological significance of rural land, and they also ask that land in the higher grades should not be developed. Usually this will be the poorer agricultural land. The Conservancy also list nature reserves and areas of specific scientific interest. It is necessary to determine which land is too steep or too broken for building, is liable to subsidence or to river or sea flooding, or is used for a purpose such as military training which precludes development. Mineral workings are surveyed and

FIGURE 2. THE SUB-REGIONAL PLAN MAKING PROCESS Key Basic process - - - - - - Feedback linkings _ _ _ _ _ Monitoring system - • • • mplementatio control & conservation

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reserves earmarked so that they shall not be sterilised by development. It is usually impractical to test the economic value of these reserves in sufficient detail to be certain whether or not they will be economically worth working; but the subregional plan will either include a policy for their ordered extraction in accordance with tests and assessments of demand made by individual operators, or will suggest policies based on the somewhat uncertain information available. Most people think that building spoils the landscape and should therefore be kept off areas of high landscape quality, but there is a minority opinion that attractive sites should be used for development in order to produce fine towns. Some measure of landscape quality is therefore desirable but very difficult to make owing to the substantial differences in preference between individuals for one type rather than another. Various techniques have been tried, but none found quite satisfactory and there is now a tendency towards analysis of landscape type rather than quality. In Nottinghamshire and Derbyshire a sample survey of landscape type has been used to divide the area into thirty-eight zones, and the capacity of each to absorb development has been assessed. Once a majority view on the quality of part of a zone has been obtained it can be extended to the remainder of the zone. The survey has also provided information on the location of places suitable for new outdoor recreational uses. Similar problems arise with the assessment of the quality of the urban environment. Areas of particularly high merit are picked out for special conservation treatment but there are large parts of many towns which are attractive and need to be kept free from direct or indirect pressures for change which might lead to their deterioration. At the other end of the scale it is necessary to decide which urban areas need re-building because they are obsolete, and which may reach this stage before the end of the century. The replacement of worn out housing areas usually has major investment, orgamsational and social implications for the sub-regional plan. In particular it is necessary to choose between a little expenditure now to improve older housing, or rather larger expenditure later to carry out complete replacement. Techniques for examining this are being developed with the aid of mathematical models. Re-building obsolete areas may lead to overspill population for which land has to be found, and there may also be land required for shopping, car parking, new roads, and other uses. Vacant land and

areas wh1ch can be demolished for these purposes, need to be surveyed. The capacity of the existing road and rail systems and their potential for improvement will be assessed, and roads which are congested, or dangerous due to a mixing of pedestrians and vehicles, will be identified. In most British sub-regions between a quarter and a half of all main roads are already carrying more traffic than their theoretical capacity. Other transportation facilities, such as airports, may also need investigation. POPUL ATION FOREC ASTS Before the requirements for new roads and additional building land can be estimated it is necessary to forecast population growth or decline. Part of this will arise from natural increase or decrease of the existing sub-regional population and this is calculated by means of a "cohort survival" technique which takes the present population by five-year age groups, urdates it by five years and adjusts the figures for anticipated births and deaths in the interval. This is then repeated for subsequent five-year cycles. The number of deaths is derived from standard life expectancy tables for each age group, and the births by multiplying the number of females of child-bearing age by an appropriate factor. This factor has varied considerably over the last fifty years and its size is the main uncertainty of the technique. Several alternative values are normally introduced. In some places allowance must also be made for the effects on natural change of the inward or outward migration of certain age groups, e.g. where some people are corning into the sub-region to retire, whilst younger people are moving out to jobs elsewhere. Natural population change is only part of the story and estimates have to be made of the net effects of migration. The amount of net migration depends largely on the employment available within the subregion, relative to other areas. Areas with good employment opportunities attract immigrants so that the population rises. The additional population requires services and therefore creates some more jobs. Conversely, if job opportunities are declining there may be outward migration to more favoured areas or there maybe substantial unemployment and low wage rates. In practice, public authorities do not like either unemployment or loss of population and are therefore anxious to maintain employment levels. Hence forecasting future migration often becomes a guess as to how far they will succeed in this, or, if growth is taking place, the extent to which it will attract population. Clearly,

research into the detail~d ·patferns of migration, and continual monitoring of changes are helpful, but constrained by the long intervals between population censuses. ECONO MIC GROWT H FOREC ASTS The rate of economic growth or decline in the sub-region affects not only the future population, but also the land required for industry and offices, the amount of traffic, and through its effect upon earnings the demand for shops, recreation, housing and services. Unfortunately adequate data is not available for an inputoutput analysis of a sub-regional economy and the only way of measuring economic change is by the number of employees. Clearly this has deficiencies when the productivity of employees is changing rapidly and at varying rates in different industries, but the community as a whole tends to be more concerned with the number and type of jobs than with commodity flows or profits. It may be equally concerned with earnings but information on these is not available for sub-regions in this country. Confidential information is obtained from the Department of Employment and Productivity on the number of employees at individual premises and on the totals employed under each of 152 standard industrial headings. The trends in these are examined with the aid of regression analysis and projected forward on the basis of national growth forecasts adjusted for sub-regional circumstances. Sometimes this is done for certain basic industries only and a multiplier applied to determine other employment but this method has proved useless in this Sub-region. The forecasts are usually for up to twenty years ahead, as this is essential for physical planning purposes, and they are not very reliable. In particular they cannot take account of abrupt (and often unexpected) changes in productivity in an industry, or in product demand, such as has happened with coal and cotton. Moreover, the statistical basis suffers from the inadequate nature of government data and from the Official Secrets Act. To some extent forecasting uncertainties even themselves out owing to the tendency for firms to expand where there is surplus labour and thus take up the slack left by lack of expansion in another industry. However, this does not occur where none of the local industriel> are growi:lg, and it sometimes happens that growth generated in the sub-region will be located elsewhere if it benefits the company concerned to do so. Some clues on the likelihood of this may be obtained by interviewing industrial63

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ists ano''';',u.ldying the linkages between firms which bind them to one another or to a particular pool of skilled labour, and both are normally investigated. Industrialists' own employment growth forecasts are too short term to be useful. Despite the difficulties quite rapid advances in regional economic forecasting have been made recently, but it seems probable that these will be eclipsed by the increasing amount of economic management needed for international or national reasons. In other words, forecasting has so far assumed that changes in the market operate within a fixed fiscal, managerial and institutional framework, whereas all of these are changing substantially. Attempts have been made to overcome this problem by producing alternative forecasts based on different assumptions, with maxima and minima growth rates widening as time passes-the wedgeshaped forecasts. However, it has recently become clear that the preparation and publication of a forecast tends to affect rates of growth by the influence it has on governmental action and on the plans of individual firms. If a labour shortage is forecast both will damp down growth or direct it elsewhere, if a surplus government policy may be relaxed and firms move in. In these circumstances it is vital that the economic analysis on which the forecast is based is competent. It is also necessary to develop control and monitoring systems able to respond quickly to economic change, and one begins to think in terms of cybernetic systems rather than one-off plans. The implications of this on physical planning have not yet been worked out but research on control systems is in hand. DATA HANDLING The picture presented by an economic analysis is often influenced by the boundary of the area studied, or for which data is available. This boundary may embrace several areas m which trends are divergent, and so conceal important conclusions. However, economic analyses of small areas are not p0ssible owing to the danger of their being influenced by the fortunes of individual firms. To overcome this difficulty in the Nottinghamsbire and Derbyshire Subregion all the employment data has been recorded on the basis of single kilometre squares and then aggregated into areas each large enough to be significant. The aggregation bas been made into eight alternative patterns of larger area, each quite different, and an analysis made for each. Conclusions have only been formed where they appeared relevant regardless 64

of the boundary adopted. This could not have been done without the help of a computer to process the data, and a Data Bank for population and employment information bas been set up for the area, and its immediate surroundings, and is now being extended to the whole East Midlands Region. PLAN-MAKING Collecting and analysing the information described above is less than half the task of preparing a sub-regional plan. The sequence which is followed in this and subsequent stages is indicated in Fig. 2, although this will vary in some respects according to the terms of reference of the particular study. Following the collection of information it is helpful to define objectives, but these will be fairly general in nature and cannot take the form of performance standards leading directly to the plan. In essence, what happens is that the planning team draw up a number of intuitive plans based on their knowledge and experience and aided by a variety of analytical tools, and then put these plans through a series of tests designed to eliminate those which are unworkable and to improve the others to the point where it is reasonable to ask the elected representative (or the public) to choose which they prefer. A simple optimising process is ruled out by uncertainties as to what people will prefer in ten or twenty years' time, and by the intangible nature of some of the individual factors which need to be taken into account. For instance, there is no generally agreed view on the relative importance of preserving agricultural land and achieving low density development, and individual planners will attach different weights to these. Again, many recent plans have been substantially biased towards reduction of road costs, perhaps because these are more easily measured, although development of transportation technology may make this quite unimportant in a few years' time. People are better at choosing than at stating what they want in abstract, but it is open to doubt whether they can make a proper decision on the weight which should be given to various intangibles at some future date. They may simply choose what seems best at present, regardless of its long term implications. There seems to be no way out of this. At this stage the plans being tested will comprise dispositions of the basic elements; housing, industry, offices, shopping centres and major outdoor recreation facilities, together with several alternative road networks. They may relate to two future dates, such as 1981 and 2001, or

take the form of a series, spread at five or ten year intervals and each cumulative upon its predecessor. ANALYTICAL TOOLS One of the most basic analytical tools is called a sieve map and shows superimposed on one another all the constraints upon developing open land, such as high quality agricultural land, mineral reserves, and floodland. Broadly speaking, the fewer of these which affect a given site the less the objections to development, but as this implies a comparison between intangibles which is not theoretically possible, the sieve map is mainly used as a guide. Other tools for analysis during plan preparation and testing are developing very rapidly at present. One with which the Nottinghamshire and Derbyshire team are experimenting is intended to analyse the economic and social potential of the area. Obviously few people will seek to live in remote areas devoid of jobs, or in areas of unattractive environment, whilst employment growth tends to be greatest in areas with a large population, good communications and good services. The relationships implied by this are bein~ summated into indices of potential for various zones of the sub-region and a "potential surface" constructed on a map base. The sensitivity of different plans to changes in potential and the interaction of several schemes can be examined with this. A more dynamic examination of interaction is possible with the aid of mathematical models. These have been used in the United States for some years but only recently introduced to this country, partly because the data they require is scarce and expensive. There are probably only about a dozen chartered town planners in Britain who can build mathematical models for planing purposes, and not many more who know how to use them, but the field is expanding rapidly. One model now being used for subregional planning was first developed in the United States by Lowry12 and is based on the assumption that people will prefer to live near their work. Given a distribution of basic employment the model will indicate where the population this employs will seek to live. This population will require services, which create further employment which the model locates, and then adds its supporting population. Versions of this model have been used for sub-regional plans in Bedfordshire, Leicestershire and Nottinghamshire/Derbyshire. A model developed by Lakshmanan and Hansen 13 has been used by these teams LONG RANGE PLANNING

to explore the inter-relationship ot shopping centres. This gives a broad indication of the effect of different population locations and transportation systems upon individual shopping centres. It is now normal for sub-regional studies to use a model of all traffic flows to test alternative road and rail networks. These traffic models have been much further developed than the others used in British planning. They are complex and require large computers, whilst their reliability exceeds that of the future population and employment estimates on which they are based. As well as indicating the land use pattern most economical of road works, they provide a useful assessment of future road requirements from which investment programmes can be worked out. CHOICE OF PLAN Alternative plans have to be feasible in terms of their costs, particularly for utilities, roads and certain other services, and for consequential town centre redevelopment. They also have to be reasonably acceptable to the bodies responsible for their implementation. There is no point in putting forward a proposal which is certain to be unacceptable to one of the local authorities or other bodies whose co-operation is essential for implementation. Usually the experience and contacts of the planning team will give them some idea of their room for manoeuvre, and on occasion they may put up a calculated challenge to entrenched attitudes. This raises the question of public participation in sub-regional planning. The normal process at present is for all the work prior to publication of a recommended plan to take place behind closed doors, and for discussion to follow publication. This puts the public, and indeed their elected representatives, at a serious disadvantage, but avoids subjecting the planning team to conflicting pressures. It reduces the chance of public understanding of the process of planning at this scale, and therefore of intelligent discussion, except between experts. The plans themselves do not help in this. In order that they shall be persuasive to both professional planners and laymen they normally comprise one or more lengthy volumes of fact, argument and proposal, backed by supporting appendices. The main text will often take half a day to read. Even so they skim lightly over the information usually collected for such studies. There is here a very real dilemma. A public relations dressing-up of the proposals is easy enough but it would conceal the real choice the community has to

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make, which is as much between different "life-styles" as a choice of spatial arrangement. Probably planners are over-concerned with spatial arrangement-the birds-eye view-rather than the way in which people live, or the organisations needed to achieve change in the directions desired. This is gradually changing and plans are coming more and more to indicate the direction of progress rather than future utopias which will never be achieved because in a few years' time they will appear irrelevant. IMPLEMENTATION Sub-regional planning does not end at the point of submitting the plan to the commissioning authorities. Usually there are a number of major proposals put forward which, after changes, it is agreed should be implemented. If these proposals require co-operation from several authorities a joint committee may be set up for the purpose, as has happened in South Hampshire, or a special body be constituted on the lines of the Development Corporation for a New Town. It often takes several years for such organisations to be set up and to reach the position where they are able to start their task. A further period may elapse before the large number of other organisations concerned, such as public utility authorities and hospital boards, have altered their own arrangement in order to play their part in the work. Indeed, the inertia of large organisations is probably the main constraint on our ability to tackle planning problems and take advantage of opportunities at the sub-regional scale. The problem of organisation adaptability is bad enough for a one-off plan, but much worse if a system of monitoring change and continual a~aptation is introduced at sub-regional scale. However, from theoretical principles it is difficult to see how effective control of the urban systems can be achieved at any more local scale now that the normal scale of operation of many economic and social activities is considerably larger than the extent of a local authority area. People travel up to twenty miles to work, and further for recreation or education, and businesses are quite often organised on a national rather than local basis. One would assume that a control system can only be effective if it operates at the same scale, or a larger scale, than the activity it is trying to guide. In a sense, sub-regional planning has arisen to meet this need, and sub-regions have been defined in a rather arbitrary way on the basis of the present pattern of activity systems. The Royal Commissions on Local Government have seen the

problem and suggested larger areas for certain of the purposes concerned. This may be as far as we can go at present, bearing in mind the effect this will have on the balance of power between central government, local government, public opinion, and business interest. However, the problem of administrative boundaries has bedevilled town planning ever since it began, and it seems unlikely that it will now be finally resolved. • REFERENCES (1) South Hampshire Study; Colin Buchanan and Partners in association with Economic Consultants Ltd. (and two supplementary volumes) H.M.S.O. 1966. (2) Centr;il Lancashire-Impact on N.E. Lancashire; Robert Matthew, Johnson-Marshall & Partners; Economic Consultants ltd. H.M.S.O. 1968. (3) A New City; Llewellyn-Davies, Weeks & Partners. H.M.S.O. 1966. (4) Belfast Regional Survey and Plan; Sir Robert Matthew. H.M.S.O. 1963. (5) First report of the Land Use/Transportation Study of South East Dorset and South West Hampshire; Hampshire C.C., Dorset C.C., and Bournemouth C.B.C. 1967. (6) Cardiff Development and Transportation Study; Colin Buchanan & Partners and Cardiff City Council, 1967. (7) Leicester and Leicestershire Sub-regional Study; Leicester C. B.C. and Leicestershire

c.c. 1969. (8) Teesside Survey and Plan; Wilson and Womersley, and Scott Wilson Kirkpatrick and Partners. H.M.S.O. 1969. (9) The Lothians Regional Survey and Plan; H.M.S.O. 1966. (2 vols.). (10) The Central Borders: a plan for expansion; Scottish Development Department. H.M.S.O. 1968. (11) A New Town in Mid-Wales; Economic Associates Ltd. H.M.S.O. 1966. (12) A Model of Metropolis; I. S. Lowry. Memorandum RM 4035 RC The Rand Corporation, Santa Monica 1964. (13) A retail potential model; T. R. Lakshmanan and W. G. Hansen, Journal of the American Institute of Planners, May 1965. SELECT BIBLIOGRAPHY "A Systems Approach to Planning"; paper by J. B. McLoughlin to Town and Country Pl~n­ ning Summer School 1967; Town Plannmg Institute. "A Short Course in Model Design"; I. S. Lowry, A.I.P. Journal, May 1865. "The Urban Transportation Problem"; Meyer, Kahn and Wohl, Harvard University Press, 1965. Plan Regional d' Amenagement Mons-Borinage: Ministre des Travaux Publics (Brussels). Regional Shopping Centres: a planning report on North West England. Part Two: a retail shopping model. Department of Town and Country Planning, Manchester University. "The Urban Revolution"; the significance of the City Region, A. D. G. Smart; proc. Royal Society of Health, 1967. "The Planners Region"; Andrew Thorburn; T.P.I. Journal, Sept.-Oct. 1962. Symposium of Sub-regional Planning, September 1968; report of proceedings Regional Studies Association; cjo Department of Geography, University of Nottingham, 1969. The Impact of a New Town; an application of the Garin-Lowry model. M. Batty, Department of Town and Country Planning, University of Manchester; August 1968. Spatial Structure and Social Structure; R. E. Pahi, Centre for Environmental Studies, 1968. Central Place Theory; Krystyna Szumeluk (2 vols.); Centre for Environmental Stu~ies, 1~68. Models in Urban Planning; A Synoptic Rev1ew of recent literature; A. G. Wilson, Centre for Environmental Studies, 1968.

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