The nuances of the supplied urban fabric in the MENA Region: Evidence from Alexandria, Egypt

Land Use Policy 73 (2018) 385–399

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The nuances of the supplied urban fabric in the MENA Region: Evidence from Alexandria, Egypt

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Mohamed R. Ibrahima, , Houshmand E. Masoumib a b

Department of Civil, Environmental and Geomatic Engineering, University College London (UCL), London, UK Center for Technology and Society, Technische Universität Berlin, Berlin, Germany

A R T I C L E I N F O

A B S T R A C T

Keywords: Neighborhood characteristics Walkability Urban measures of the MENA region Residential location choice Neighborhoods of alexandria Egypt Jobs-housing balance Transport catchment areas

There are different urban qualities that can define the traditional cities in the MENA region, such as high densities, walkability, and mixed use-residential led development. However, in the last decades when old cities merged with newer developments, under planning codes or informally, different urban qualities can be observed. Indeed, within the rapid urbanization and the limited budgets of less developed countries, the supply of utopian neighborhoods becomes an obsolete solution. Thus, it equivocates which basic urban qualities are imperative to be ensured in the land use policies that can make new cities more inhabitable. Hence, this paper attempts to empirically identify the essential urban measures in the case of Alexandria in Egypt. Descriptive and numerical analyses, using T-test method, were conducted to analyze the urban fabric of eight selected neighborhoods that belong to two different spatial groups; old districts group and new urban development group. The outcomes reveal that, with limited urban planning and development budget, the most influential concepts that may be set as priorities are walkability, neighborhood job opportunities, and availability of public transport infrastructures related to different modes. Also, the research recommends a new housing-transport policy for new cities. This may be significant for policy making by municipalities and other bodies related to planning and implementation in Egypt or the neighboring countries.

1. Introduction Neighborhood design has gained a particular interest since the beginning of the 20th century, from being a basic planning unit in the fabric of a city to become a prototype where sustainability can be measured and achieved (Gouda and Masoumi, 2017; Rohe, 2009; Sharifi, 2016). Moreover, ensuring the right to the city in neighborhoods development has become an approach for different scholars in the past years (Jabareen, 2014). Different theories and models have been conducted to provide a livable neighborhood that can provide adequate living conditions and social justice for locals (Sharifi, 2016). Moving from Howard's idea and the garden city movement to Clarence Perry’s idea, enhancing the physical characteristics of the neighborhood was the rife scheme. Pedestrianization was intensely addressed in their design proposals. Amenities and commercial activities were accessible by walking trips that are less than 400 m (Banister, 2012; Perry, 1929; Sharifi, 2016). Within urbanization process and the exponential urban growth, developing lands for housing with adequate services and good planning measures is still limited. Nevertheless, understanding the complexity of cities to guide development through effective planning

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remains ambivalent. On the contrary, the new housing developments under burgeoning demand are built in the high-speed record in the fringes of large cities where open spaces and common areas are either undermined or neglected in quality (Gehl, 2010). These add more challenges for governments to plan, develop and monitor urban development at the national and local levels (Chua and Deguchi, 2008; Yakob et al., 2012). In the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region, it is imperative to differentiate between the trends of development in oil producing countries and those still struggling with their economic development. Countries that are affiliated with Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) tends to invest more in urban infrastructure to extend and upgrade their cities, whereas the remaining countries lack the ability to influence and monitor the urbanization process (Pahl-Weber et al., 2013a, 2013b). However, what remains unequivocal is that urban development still an ambiguous process in most of the Middle Eastern countries (Plumb et al., 2011; Rizzo, 2014; UN-Habitat, 2011, 2012). Arab countries are characterized by rapidly urbanized growth in core cities with a traditional lifestyle for city dwellers whereas a noticeable gap between ‘urbanization’ and ‘urbanism’ is observed. Subjectively,

Corresponding author at: Chadwick Building, Dept Civil, Environmental and Geomatic Engineering, University College London, Gower Street, London WC1E 6BT, UK. E-mail addresses: [email protected], [email protected] (M.R. Ibrahim).

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.landusepol.2018.01.044 Received 26 August 2016; Received in revised form 24 January 2018; Accepted 24 January 2018 0264-8377/ © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

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walkability with the indicators and factors of accessibility that include; land uses, population characteristics and travel destinations. Thus, it affects the decision of people to walk or not to walk in a certain neighborhood. There are few studies that show the influence of walkability in buying a house in certain location. However, a wide range of real estate professional indicated walkability as a main pleasant factor (Gilderbloom et al., 2015). Also, Manaugh and El-Geneidy (2010) studied the walking behavior of different households according to different independent factors such as their needs and desires, their willingness to walk a certain distance, type of destination, and the quality of the walking path. They have explained how the walking behaviors, to places of daily needs within the neighborhood, differ from one social class to another, i.e. low-income families tend to walk more than middle or higher-class families to meet their daily needs. Moreover, young families tend to walk less than larger families (Manaugh and ElGeneidy, 2010). However, it remains ambiguous whether walkability is a must, or a choice, in designing neighborhoods. People are more likely to reside in different neighborhood characteristics that match their needs. In simple words, those who like walking are more likely to select neighborhoods of high pedestrian freedom while those who prefer to commute via public transportation would likely choose areas that are transit-oriented (Boarnet and Crane, 2001). However, it is still debatable which type of urban measures should be ensured in the housing policies when supplying new neighborhoods. Within the limited economic development in most countries of the MENA region along with the indigence to rapid housing solutions, providing an ideal neighborhood became an obsolete solution. Understanding the basic urban measures that can reflect the needs of the majority of people living in a certain context could be a precedent for providing better neighborhoods that can attract more inhabitants to live within their boundaries. In relation with such inability of the countries of the region to analyze the urban growth trends to fulfill good planning practice, this paper attempts to provide a synthesis of priorities for neighborhood development based on the physical characteristics of the existing neighborhoods. In contrast, this study assumes that the built environment has a crucial role in the promotion of sustainable mobility and in general livability. The quality of the existing built environments in Egypt is very much based on the type of neighborhoods and urban fabrics. Whether they are informal or formal, or they are planned or non-planned, they can produce different qualities. Hence, this paper aims to identify the desirable urban measures that reflect the basic need of the local inhabitants in the case of Alexandria, Egypt. It attempts to explain the significant differences between the supplied urban fabric in the old and new fabric of Alexandria. Last, it aims to assist planners and policy-makers with recommendations that can be considered when supplying new neighborhoods in Egypt.

The architecture of Arab cities has severely declined since the 18th century as a result of three different processes; an urban development based on ‘copy and paste’ from western societies, development based on technology, or due to the rapid urbanization with the absence of regulations (Abdelsalam and Rihan, 2013). Egypt in comparison to other Arab countries reserves a larger portion of the informal development, in which it is exponentially expanding. In contrast, the informal development in urban areas of Yemen is very limited. Thus, it is simply due to the absence of many laws that regulate urban developments such as lot subdivision. Nevertheless, building licenses are obligatory, however, it can be compensated after the development with a few fees. Furthermore, 23% of the development in Morocco is based on informal development. While in cases of Tunisia and Jordan, informal development is less severe than the cases of Egypt and Syria. Nevertheless, the government has applied strategies to alleviate the causes of the problem and provide habitable areas for the local inhabitants (Sims, 2013). Not only the cities in Arab countries of the MENA region are defined by confined urban characteristics and challenges, but also, the non-Arabic-speaking countries share similar conditions. In fact, the urban integration was the seminal characteristic of the post-Islamic Iranian cities so-called traditional cities (Sharifi and Murayama, 2013). They were distinguished from the contemporary ones by being compact and mixed-use urban patterns. Nonetheless, a well-defined structure of pedestrianized paths along with safety measures, and local architecture characteristics were other elements considered during the design process. Consequently, the various urban components have functioned side to side to achieve patterns of high accessibility, housing development, employment opportunities, privacy and equal right access to services and amenities within the neighborhood (Sharifi and Murayama, 2013). The majority of the urban population in Egypt is inclined to select between three residential locations; either in the inner districts of old cities that are intensively populated, social housing in new cities that are limited, or flexibly expand in the informal settlements. Subsequently, different lifestyles are provided based on the type of the choice made for housing locations (Ibrahim, 2017b; Shehayeb, 2009). The Egyptian new cities were a solution, which attempted to mobilize a legion of the population out of the existing old cities and respond to the gross housing demand (Sims, 2015). However, housing prices reached a level that limited the access of the middle and low income. As a result, informal settlements become an alternative for housing that dramatically exploited a larger portion of agricultural land around large urban agglomeration in Egypt (El Kafrawy, 2012; El-Batran and Arandel, 1998; Taher, 1997). On the contrary, “Luxurious desert cities have been built to house Cairo’s elite, with villas fetching millions of pounds in gated compounds” (CAHF, 2014, p. 77), giving no choice to urban poor except living informally and built their houses based on their assets. In fact, 40% of those new cities are still waiting for dwellers, thus, it represents a higher vacancy rate than the national average (Ibrahim and Masoumi, 2016; World Bank, 2008). Even for the social housing units, vacancies were high (Sims, 2015). In contrast, the informal settlement or Ashwai'at −literally random or unplanned- has dominated the housing market in Egypt (Ibrahim, 2017b). Measuring the success of the urban form has been studied among different scholars with a wide spectrum of spatial and socioeconomic attributes (Echenique et al., 2012; Hansen, 1959; Hipp et al., 2017; Song and Knaap, 2004). The main focus of this study is on a number of the physical characteristics of neighborhoods that may influence the livability and quality of life of residents in the Egyptian context. These attributes include walkability, housing and employment (jobs-housingbalance and housing typology), and accessibility to public transportation and neighborhood facilities. Walkability is like many other terms that differ according to the different perceptions and viewpoints. It can be linked with the terms; accessibility, suitability, or proximity (Gilderbloom et al., 2015). However, Ewing and Cervero (2010) strengthened the definition of

2. Methodology Hypothetically, the physical characteristics of the neighborhoods in new cities to a higher degree do not match with the needs of households in Egypt in term of the provided services, and mobility aspects are related to the availability of public transportation and the walking conditions. As a result, it affects the decision of the inhabitants to live in neighborhoods supplied in new cities, instead, they prefer to live in the older districts of the old cities. The paper attempts to respond to the hypothesis by comparing the characteristics of the urban fabric of old and new urban areas in Egypt, in order to affirm the significant urban measures that are either provided or undermined in one of the two groups. The research methodology relied on descriptive and numerical analysis. It has amassed comparative analysis of eight selected neighborhoods in Alexandria, Egypt, categorized into two different spatial groups. The first group comprises four neighborhoods located in the old districts of Alexandria, whereas the second group represents four neighborhoods located in a new city so-called New Borg El-Arab (See 386

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Fig. 1. Spatial locations of the eight Selected neighborhoods in Alexandria, Egypt. Source: Compiled by the Authors based on GIS data (GOPP, 2011).

Fig. 1). The descriptive analysis covers detailed findings for each neighborhood. While the numerical analysis aims to compare the two groups based on five urban measures for each neighborhood- Walkscore, an average number of jobs, Jobs-housing Balance, Transport Catchment areas and last, a number of transport modes. A numerical analysis using a two samples T-test method is followed in order to find statistically significant differences in the means of each variable in the two groups.

2.1.1. Criteria for selecting the existing neighborhoods Since the occupied neighborhoods in the new cities are limited, so selection based on the available neighborhoods for middle and low income. However, there are several criteria that were considered during the selection of the existing neighborhoods to avoid the bias in the result and to ensure a higher degree of diversity in the selection of neighborhoods. These criteria are; a) planning status: planned or unplanned, b) housing typologies in the neighborhood: private apartment, cooperative, public housing, self-build… etc. c) distance from city center, d) distance from seashore: it is considered as an important factor that influences land prices in the inner districts of Alexandria, e) types of the available transportation modes: tram, train, bus, etc. Table 1 justify the selection of neighborhoods based on the above-mentioned criteria, whereas the variation of the distance to the seashore and city center appears in Fig. 1.

2.1. Study area and the selected sample The city of Alexandria is located in the northern part of Egypt, approximately 200 km away from Cairo. It is stretched along the coast of the Mediterranean sea with a length of 40 km, and of the approximate width of 3.5 km (Mackie, 2014; New world encyclopedia, 2012). It has been selected as the case the study for the research due to two main reasons. First, Alexandria represents the second large urban agglomeration in Egypt. According to CAPMAS (2014), Alexandria is a home for 4,716,000 inhabitants. They are spread among the seven different districts of the city unevenly according to the size of the districts and points of attraction. Second, the new city of New Borg El-Arab has located 30 km away from Alexandria, Thus, it would help to analysis the neighborhood qualities in both, existing neighborhoods in inner districts of Alexandria in relation to those who are newly supplied in the new city of New Borg El-Arab. New Borg El-Arab is planned to be a standalone city, in order to counter-pole the increased population in Alexandria by the presidential decree 506 in 1979. Nevertheless, it represents a new industrial hub nearby Alexandria city. It aims to attract a population size of 570,000 inhabitants. It is located 30 km away from Alexandria city, with a total area of 348.5 km2 (GOPP, 2015; NUCA, 2016).

2.1.2. Neighborhood one – Sidi Bishr The neighborhood is located in El Montaza District, one of the highly populated old districts in Alexandria. It characterizes by high density for both populations and built-up area. The neighborhood comprises a large number of self-built housing, either built by the owners themselves, or by small private investors. Being unplanned, it represents a high degree of informality which takes different shapes; street vendors are the main compound of the neighborhood, informal transportation modes that include microbes and Toktok (para-transit). Nevertheless, irregular building heights represent another type of informality that doesn't follow the building codes (See Fig. 2). 2.1.3. Neighborhood two – Mostafa Kamel The neighborhood is located in Shark district, by the edge of the seashore. It is considered one of the unique neighborhoods that are 387

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NUCA 2 Private cars, Paratransit NUCA–Developers Private cars, Para-transit Supplier Available transport modes (prevailing)

Private Developers Private Cars, Paratransit transport

Government–households Tram lines, Para-transit transport

NUCA Private cars, Paratransit

Neighborhood 4 New Borg El-Arab ElHay_Elawl Planned Private apartments Neighborhood 3 New Borg El-Arab ElHay_Elawl Planned Private apartments

Neighborhood 2 New Borg El-Arab ElHay_Elawl Planned Self-Built house–Private apartments NUCA Private Owners Private cars, Para-transit Neighborhood 1 New Borg El-Arab ElHay_Elawl Planned Private apartments Kom_ELShokafa Gharb Kom_ELShokafa Unplanned/Slums Public Housing/Slums

Mostafa_Kaml Shark Mostafa_Kaml Planned Cooperative apartments Military Sector Tram lines/Private CArs Neighborhood Name District Sheyakha “province” Planning Status Main Housing Typology

Sidi_Bishr ElMontazha Sidi_Bishr Kably Unplanned/Informal Private/self-built apartments Private Owners Rail way, Para-Transit, Public transport

Smouha Shark Ezbat Saad Planned Private Apartments

6 5 4 3 2 1 ID

neighborhood group one: Old districts of alexandria Neighborhood Type

Table 1 Study areas in Alexandria, Egypt based on the selection criteria. Source: Compiled by the Authors based on (Field Work; GOPP, 2011; Walk Score, 2015)

neighborhood group two: New Borg El-Arab

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Fig. 2. Neighborhood one characteristics. Pictures are taken by the authors.

built by the military army, as a cooperative housing to house mainly army officers. The area is one of the special cases of neighborhoods in Alexandria by the seashore. Since the neighborhood is publicly owned by the army, the tenure type for residents is neither full ownership nor renting is considered to be usufruct, without giving the right for owners to sell or permanently rent their residential units. The neighborhood considered being relatively a quiet neighborhood compared to the other surrounding ones (See Fig. 3). 2.1.4. Neighborhood three – Smouha The neighborhood is located in Shark district, 1.5 km away from the seashore. It is characterized by mixed-used residential lead development. It includes a large number of businesses such as finance, banking, insurance, and consultants’ offices. Moreover, it comprises a large number of clinics and healthcare. The neighborhood is considered to be relatively new compared to the existing neighborhoods in the older districts of Alexandria, as it is established in the last 2 decades. Furthermore, this neighborhood and the surrounding “Smouha” represent one of the new city centers of Alexandria that most Alexandrians head to for different purposes including business, and leisure activities. The area is mainly home to the middle and upper middle class. In addition, the unit prices are relatively high compared to the previous neighborhoods. It ranges from 4000 to 7000 EGP/m2 according to the current market situation (See Fig. 4). 2.1.5. Neighborhood four-Kom El-Shokhafa The neighborhood represents one of the oldest neighborhoods in Alexandria. It is located in Gharb district-one of the oldest districts, and old city center of Alexandria. It is 1.5 km away from “Gomrok”- the old harbor of Alexandria. Kom El-Shokafa neighborhood is in the vicinity of one of the largest cemetery sites in Alexandria, and Roman monumental site of “Amoud El Swari” -Pompei Pillars. This neighborhood represents one of the unique urban structure in Alexandria. On one hand, 388

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Fig. 3. Housing typology in neighborhood two. Pictures are taken by the authors.

monumental areas “Pompei Pillars, and Catacombs” are one of the unique tourist attraction sites of Alexandria that are located within the boundary of the neighborhood. While on the other hand, the area is characterized by high rate of informality “Ashwai'at”, nevertheless, the deterioration of the living standards of the local inhabitants. It comprises a number of public housing that is built in the period of the 60 s and has been modified informally by their residents to meet their current needs. Moreover, it represents home to thousands of urban poor and low budget workers (See Fig. 4). 2.1.6. The four neighborhoods of New Borg El-Arab Most of the neighborhoods in New Borg El-Arab share common urban setting. Neighborhoods located in El-hay El-awl, literally the first district, are dominated by single self-built housing typologies (See Fig. 5). 2.2. Data collection Fig. 5. Housing typologies in New Borg El-Arab NEIGHBORHOODS. The picture is taken by the authors.

The input variables used in the comparative analysis represent the crucial urban measures that have been discussed intensively from different scholars in order to provide a livable environment and sustainable mobility (Gehl, 2010; Gossop and Nan, 2012; Sharifi, 2016; Tibbalds, 2001). These variables are estimated based on GIS map of Alexandria conducted by the General Organization of Physical Planning in Egypt (GOPP, 2011). Nevertheless, the primary data were obtained from the field work of the respective neighborhoods in summer 2015. There are different sub-methods based on estimating each respective variable. These sub-methods are explained below.

mobile application that measures Walkability so-called “WalkScore”. It measures walkability to any given address by analyzing the available walking routes to the distance to nearby shops, school, restaurants, amenities, and services. Higher points are given for amenities that area within 5 min −1/4 Mile, or 400 m- walk from the selected point based on different categories of amenities. Points decay till it reaches zero after reaching a 30-min walk. Moreover, it analyzes population density, block length, and intersection densities of the street. Data is collected from different map engines such as; Google, Education.com, Open Street Map, U.S Census, Localeze. Indeed, this measure is commonly

2.2.1. Variable 1: Walkability (Walkscore) Walking score is obtained for each neighborhood based on the

Fig. 4. Left photo neighborhood three, right photo neighborhood FOUR. Photo taken by the authors.

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Fig. 6. Group one neighborhoods land use maps. Source: Compiled by the Authors based on GIS data (GOPP, 2011).

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Fig. 7. Group one neighborhood-catchment area maps. Source: Compiled by the Authors based on GIS data (GOPP, 2011).

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covered with different catchment areas for different public transport modes regardless of the efficiency nor the quality of the services, train, bus, microbus and Toktok stations all nearby, or even within the boundary of the neighborhood. The area is 100% covered with the catchment areas of the different transport modes (See Fig. 6 and Fig. 7). The neighborhood two is considered to be relatively a quiet neighborhood compared to the other surrounding ones. The neighborhood is covered mainly with residential uses, except for few shops, and retails on the ground floor. However, what makes the job opportunity relatively high compared to similar ones is the presence of five-star hotels that represents a job generation for many people. Tram lines represent a vital source of public transport to the neighborhoods. It provides access to the different old district of Alexandria. Nevertheless, its price is within the range of middle-income class. Furthermore, Mostafa Kamel neighborhood is within the range of one tram station, which covers almost 50% of the total area. Nevertheless, more than 75% of the area is covered by a linear catchment area that is represented by the main arterial road in e Alexandria. This road represents the main route for many transport modes such as a formal bus system, microbuses, and taxis that stop by waving in most cases. Neighborhood three is characterized by being transit-oriented, nevertheless, being highly pedestrian. The main train station of Alexandria is within the boundary of the neighborhood. This station is the main hub for connecting Alexandria to Cairo and other Egyptian cities. Besides connecting the local districts of Alexandria together. Moreover, the main microbus station is located in the neighborhood that connects this area to the different neighborhoods, and districts of Alexandria. In addition, the surrounding roads of the neighborhoods represent a catchment area for different transport modes including; taxis, buses, and microbus. Nevertheless, Smouha neighborhood is characterized by a large number of car ownership per household. Indeed, public parking is one of the crucial issues in the neighborhood. The roads of the neighborhoods, on one hand, serve a high pedestrian and commercial traffic flow, while on the other hand, they represent a parking space for thousands of cars for permanent residents and temporary visitors to the area. Neighborhood four comprises a number of public housing that is built in the period of the 60s, and have been modified informally by their residents to meet their current needs. Moreover, it represents home to thousands of urban poor, and low-budget workers. There are a large number of informal retails and shops. Moreover, it includes different handicraft activities, including wood, and metal crafts. The value of jobs-housing balance is relatively high because, first, the huge amount of informal commercial activities that offers job opportunities for many people. Second, even though the area is highly dense, the average number of floors is four-floors inside the neighborhoods. The neighborhood is within the reach of one of the old tram lines. This tram line represents one of the most vital public transport means for Kom El-Shokafa neighborhood. Moreover, it provides for the neighborhood an approximately 50% catchment area for the whole area of the neighborhood. Furthermore, The neighborhood has a good accessibility through different informal public transport means represented in a microbus, and Toktok stops are surrounding the neighborhoods where they represent destinations to different areas and districts of Alexandria. It worth to mention that the urban structure, and so as the travel behavior differs from being in the neighborhood, and nearby the neighborhoods in the surrounding roads. Pedestrian flow is the main dominant flow within the neighborhood.

used in different Academic studies worldwide. It uses a scale of 0–100 to weight walkability according to five different categories that qualify the proximity to services in the given neighborhoods (Walk Score, 2015). 2.2.2. Variable 2-Average number of jobs In each neighborhood, the number of jobs is estimated based on GIS maps, land use, and activity nodes maps, whereas the nature and the standards of the job places are inducted from the site visits based on observation. For instance, a neighborhood of prevailing unplanned/ informal nature, the main scheme of the available jobs are mainly small shops or street vendors, besides a counted number of services represented in hospitals, clinics, school, etc. In contrast, some of the formal neighborhood represents high tech office and/or better retails areas. The job mentioned here are these jobs represented in the neighborhood in the mixed uses, commercial and service activities. Second, the number of housing units is estimated from GIS maps based on the area of the lot, the number of floors, and the average size of the housing unit within a certain neighborhood. 2.2.3. Variable 3-Jobs-housing balance median Jobs-housing balance is estimated as the ratio between job opportunities, and the number of housing units in a neighborhood. Furthermore, jobs-housing balance median is calculated for each selected neighborhood of average neighborhood's size of 30 ha. 2.2.4. Variable 4 – catchment area ratio The public transport catchment area is estimated by two different methods. First, in the case of public transport stops, a circular buffer zone of 1/4 mile −400 m is calculated. While in the case of the linear catchment area, a rectangular buffer zone of 400 m is calculated. Consequently, “catchment area ratio” is estimated as the ratio between the areas covered by either one or both transport buffer zones to the total area of the neighborhood. According to (Lohse, 2011) the circular buffer zone for the public transport modes such as; bus, StrassenBahn (tram line), Stadtbahn (city train) should be planned within the range of 300–500 m. In contrast, according to (Korda et al., 2005) the circular catchment area for buses is within the range of 200–300 m, while for Strassenbahn (tram) is within the distance of 300–400 m, and for Stadtbahn (City train) is within the range of 300–500 m. Nevertheless, for U-Bahn (underground) is within the range of 750–1000 m. 2.2.5. Variable 5 – number of public transport modes The number of public transport modes available within the boundary of the of each neighborhood, and/or within a buffer zone of 400 m from its boundary. 3. Findings 3.1. Descriptive analysis 3.1.1. Group one Jobs inside the neighborhood one are considered to be low budget jobs. They are represented in different types of shops and retails. Regardless of informality and the hustle that is created by street vendors, the area attracts a huge number of inhabitants. As housing prices are considered to be relatively affordable for mostly the middle and lower income class. Informality is not only among urban structure represented in the neighborhood but also covers public transportation system. Microbus is one of the vital public transport means that connect the neighborhood with the surrounding areas and districts of Alexandria. It is one of the main assets that most of the neighborhood's inhabitants rely on for their daily travel to different destinations in Alexandria. Avoiding Informal stops are one of the crucial challenges for developing the area, and avoiding traffic congestions. Despite informality, the area is characterized by being transit-oriented. It is

3.1.2. Group two Most of the neighborhoods in New Borg El-Arab share common urban setting. They comprise self-built single housing typologies. Moreover, The usages are dominated by residential uses where mixed uses and service occupy less space of the built-up area. According to Walkscore, the average walking score is perceived to be 18. The neighborhood has a weak walkability characteristic. Thus, it can be 392

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Fig. 8. Group two neighborhoods-land use maps. Source: Compiled by the Authors based on GIS data (GOPP, 2011).

project are unknown until this moment. Thus, it adds more challenges in the area to attract more inhabitants who rely on the public transportation system from Alexandria city (See Fig. 8 and Fig. 9).

explained due to the centralized commercial and services usages. Due to the absence of public transportation system at the current time, the only considerable public transportation means are represented in paratransit modes such as microbus, taxi, and Toktok. It is worth mentioning that train line is planned to cover the area and provide public transport means for the whole city of New Borg ElArab. Indeed, the implementation and realization of this train system 393

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Fig. 9. Group two neighborhoods- Transport catchment area map. Source: Compiled by the Authors based on GIS data (GOPP, 2011).

Walkability compared to those of Group Two-New Borg El-Arab. Second, in the case of jobs-housing balance median, the p-value is equal 0.391. Thus, it shows the statistically insignificant result. The null hypothesis is accepted that there is no significant effect on the value of jobs-housing balance associated with the change of a group of the neighborhoods. Third, in the case of a number of job opportunities, the p-value is equal to 0.023, which means it is statistically significant. The mean for Group one is 7,257.75, while the mean for group two is 813. Thus, it means the number of estimated jobs based on services and mixed uses inside the neighborhood, for Group one- old districts of Alexandria are extremely higher than those estimated in Group TwoNew Borg El-Arab. Fourth, in the case of catchment area ratio, the Pvalue is equal to 0.391 which is not statistically significant. The null hypothesis is accepted that there is no associated effect on the value of the catchment area ratio with the change of groups of the neighborhoods. Last, in the case of public transport modes, the P-value is equal to 0.015 which is statistically very significant. The null hypothesis of no difference. Moreover, there is an associated effect on the value of public transport modes with the change of the neighborhoods' group. The mean for Group one is equal to 4.25, whereas the mean of Group Two is 1.75 where group one is higher than group two. Thus, it means the presence of public transport alternatives in case of neighborhoods in the old districts of Alexandria is higher than those neighborhoods in New

3.2. Comparing the urban measures in the existing and the new fabric of Alexandria, Egypt Table 2 represents the main finding of the numerical methods. It comprises the two clustered neighborhoods. Moreover, it represents facts concerning each neighborhood such as; supplier, planning status, average number of floors, and the common housing typology. The five variables previously explained, have been used in T-test analysis of confidence level 95%. The p-value only in the case of Walkscore, a number of job opportunities and the number of public transport modes are statistically significant – less than 0.05. Thus, it explains that the changes in the values of these three variables are associated with the type of the group that the neighborhoods belong to. While in the case of Jobs-housing balance and the catchment area ratio, the result is statistically of no significance. Thus, it means the value of these two variables are not affected by the group types of the neighborhoods (See Tables 3 and 4). First, in the case of Walkscore, the p-value is equal to 0.001 which means that the change of type of neighborhood's group is very significant for the value of walk score where the mean – the average score for each 4 neighborhoods – in the case of Group one is 87, while in the case of Group one is 20.75. Thus, it means that the Group One's neighborhoods-old districts of Alexandria- are of the higher tendency of 394

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0.67 0.62 22 0 0 2

4.1. Livable neighborhood

0.70 0.70 28 16.2 0.54 2

The research outcome shows high validity for walkability as a prominent measure for designing a neighborhood in Egypt. Indeed, it seems to be undermined in the design of neighborhoods in the new urban development. Nonetheless, walkability represents a pivot measure for comparing between neighborhoods in the older fabric of Egypt, and those that are supplied in new cities. Regardless of the economic situation of local inhabitants, the different neighborhoods in the fabric of old cities in Egypt share the essential urban measures that invite their local inhabitants and visitors to rely on walking and public transportation. Thus, it should be advocated by policy-makers when supplying neighborhoods in new cities in developing countries (Gehl, 2010). People tend to live in a neighborhood where they are able to walk to the nearby grocery stores, even if they use the car for going to work. A walkable neighborhood is considered to be one of the important elements for neighborhood design, not only for ensuring sustainability, but also to reduce the rate of crimes (Gilderbloom et al., 2015; Gilderbloom and Meares, 2012). As mentioned by Tibbalds (2001) that comfortable human scale environments are those who are built to match with the pedestrian scale, not with the moving vehicles. It has been imperially shown that 39.3% of surveyed inhabitants of Alexandria use the means of Microbus to commute to their workplaces whereas 15.7% tends to walk to their workplaces. Also, the availability of public transportation was shown as a key factor in selecting residential locations in Alexandria (Ibrahim, 2017a, 2017b). Moreover, the significant results of the urban measures in case of neighborhoods in old fabric of Alexandria are in line with the guiding lines of the American Planning Association (APA, 2015) in explaining what can be a great neighborhood. Living in a walking environment with an easy access to the daily services are considered to be of high importance, not only for planners, Architects, or health professionals but also for the majority of the citizens (Steiniger et al., 2013). According to the National Association of Realtors research study (NAR, 2015) stated that walkability represents an essential factor of residential location choice. Walkability is perceived as the main factor to choose where likely to live for 66% of the surveyed inhabitants in North America.

0.58 0.56 73 23.2 0.74 4 0.67 0.61 95 33 1 4

Mostafa_Kaml Shark Mostafa_Kaml Cooperative apartments Military Sector Planned 123,131 15 25 3696 8499

0.43 0.52 91 25 1 4

1

Sidi_Bishr ElMontazha Sidi_Bishr Kably Private/self-built apartments Private Owners Unplanned 249,098 16 36 8040 4,1473

0.19 0.16 89 36 1 5

ID

Neighborhood Name District Sheyakha “province” Main Housing Typology

0.40 0.41 15 19.3 0.66 1

NUCA–Developers Planned 24,346 4 29 689 1722 Government–households Unplanned 133,673 4 31 5874 10,107

0.13 0.11 18 26 0.7 2

NUCA Planned 23,050 4 32 1208 1799 NUCA Planned 22,700 4 30 1170 1661

Neighborhood 4 New Borg El-Arab ElHay_Elawl Private apartments Neighborhood 3 New Borg El-Arab ElHay_Elawl Private apartments Neighborhood 1 New Borg El-Arab ElHay_Elawl Private apartments Kom_ELShokafa Gharb Kom_ELShokafa Public Housing/Slums

Smouha Shark Ezbat Saad Private Apartments Private Developers Planned 174,337 10 33 11,421 16,841

neighborhood group one: Old districts of alexandria

5 4

Neighborhood 2 New Borg El-Arab ElHay_Elawl Self-Built house–Private apartments NUCA Private Owners Planned 16,484 3 34 185 1367

8 7

4. Discussion

3

6

Borg El-Arab.

Neighborhood Type

4.2. Generalization and similarities Urban mobility solutions are transferable from a city to another in case they share common conditions and challenges as adumbrated by Arndt et al. (2014). As most of the megacities share the same future challenges towards supplying urban mobility solution that can reduce; energy consumption, noise and, air pollution, with a good quality of service, and road safety. In this vein, the findings of this paper can be generalized to include most of MENA region countries, particularly non-oil producing ones. As they share common urban challenges represented in providing fast alternatives for housing, in which it would achieve higher success without considering urban mobility measures when supplying new neighborhoods. Supplying highly pedestrianized neighborhoods remain as a challenging task for planners and decision-makers, not only in Middle Eastern cities but also in western cities. “Inner-city neighborhoods built before the mass production of cars are more walkable than sprawling suburban neighborhoods” (Gilderbloom et al., 2015, p. 13). According to Sallis et al. (2004); Gilderbloom et al. (2015) walkability were the main characteristics of the most neighborhoods in the US built in the early 20th Century. Local shops, transportation facilities to ensure mobility were the main items of walkability. On the other hand, neighborhood densities, including population density, Floor Area Ratio- (F.A.R) and the built-up ratio represent unique phenomena that can explain the

Supplier Planning Status Population Density (Person/km2) Average Number of Floors Total Area (Hectare) Estimated Number of Jobs* Estimated Number of housing units* Jobs-housing balance Jobs-housing balance median* Walk Score* Catchment Area (Hectare) Catchment Area ratio Number of transport modes

2

Table 2 Summary for all variables for the eight analyzed neighborhoods in Alexandria, Egypt. Source: Compiled by the Authors based on (Field Work; GOPP, 2011; Walk Score, 2015)

neighborhood group two: New Borg El-Arab

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Table 3 T-test Statistics showing the different means for each variable in each Group. Urban measures Pair 1

WALK SCORE GROUP1 WALK SCORE GROUP 2 JOBS-HOUSING BALANCE GROUP1 JOBS-HOUSING BALANCE GROUP2 ESTIMATED NUMBER OF JOBS GROUP 1 ESTIMATED NUMBER OF JOBS GROUP 2 CATCHMENT AREA GROUP1 CATCHMENT AREA GROUP2 TRANSPORT MODES GROUP 1 TRANSPORT MODES GROUP2

Pair 2 Pair 3 Pair 4 Pair 5

Mean

N

Std. Deviation

Std. Error Mean

87.00 20.75 0.75 0.50 7257.75 813.00 1.00 0.75 4.25 1.75

4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4

9.661 5.620 0.500 0.577 3293.701 480.706 0.000 0.500 0.500 0.500

4.830 2.810 0.250 0.289 1646.850 240.353 0.000 0.250 0.250 0.250

the number of job opportunities in case of neighborhoods of group one are extremely higher than those in Group Two. There are different reasons that can be elaborated from these two relations. First, the design of the New Borg El-Arab is based on planning theories representing that the means of jobs-housing, housing balance is nearly equal in two cases −0.75 in the case of Group One and 0.50 in the case of Group Two. In other words, the number of job opportunities in the neighborhood compared to the number of housing units is fine. In the case of old districts of Alexandria, the number of jobs based on services and mixed uses inside the neighborhood is extremely higher than those in the same size neighborhoods in New Borg El-Arab. Thus, it means the number of jobs in old districts is higher than the standards of planning theories, and people tend to live in an environment of higher density in built-up areas and F.A.R. Nevertheless, the informal building heights add more housing units which decrease the value of job- housing balance. While in the case of New Borg El-Arab, the number of job opportunities is lower than the average of the existing old neighborhoods, even though it is balanced to the housing units, even though it is planned with the standards of planning theories. Furthermore, the number of housing units, consequently, F.A.R, and Built up ratio are extremely low compared to similar size neighborhoods in case of the old districts of Alexandria.

living conditions in old cities of Egypt. According to the World Bank (2015), The overall density of population in Egypt in 2014 is 90 inhabitants/sq. km. In the case of Egypt, this number is misleading and does not represent the actual reality of the population density. As it is estimated based on the current population in relation to the whole country's area regardless of whether it is vacant or deserted land. It is worth to mention that 96% of the population in Egypt is distributed only in 4% of the total area of Egypt (Sims, 2015). Based on estimation, the population density for current inhabitants living in four percent of the whole land would be higher than 25,000 inhabitants/km2 in case that the population is distributed on only four percent of the land. Even though this relatively high number of population density does not represent the actual population density as it shows the population density of the whole urban land, including open spaces, water bodies, areas of highways, vacant, and/or deserted land. In fact, neighborhood densities are dramatical of high peaks. Therefore, when supplying new planned neighborhood, densities should be reconsidered based on the Egyptian context in order to respond to the lifestyle of local inhabitants at the different social classes. Mixed uses, and generation of job opportunities in the neighborhood, they are indeed a significant dominant feature for neighborhoods in the older districts of Alexandria compared to those neighborhoods in New Borg-El-Arab. Although jobs-housing balance is nearly equal in both cases – old and new neighborhoods that can clearly show those new neighborhoods are built to the standards of planning theories. Indeed, they do not match the current settings of neighborhoods in the older districts of Alexandria. Thus, it may decrease the possibility for people to move to newly built cities. It worth to mention the relation between the non-significant result of jobs-housing balance median, with the significant result of the numbers of job opportunities median for the two groups of neighborhoods. According to the T-test analysis, assuming that the jobs-housing balance is constant as is not statistically significant, plus the means of two groups are nearly equal −0.75 and 0.50 for Group One, and Group Two respectively. While the means of

4.3. Egyptian government initiatives and policies Building new cities in Egypt, since early 1979, has marginalized the needs of public transportation as an essential factor in attracting inhabitants to newly developed regions. It has been clearly questioned what has gone wrong with the new cities (Sims, 2015). Thus, it avers the importance of reconsidering the significant urban measures highlighted in the research when supplying new cities in Egypt. The government tended to provide a program of the self-built housing to avoid informality and give the people pliable housing solutions and freedom to build their own houses according to their

Table 4 T-test results showing the P-value “Sig (2-tailed)” for each variable in each Group – Significant P-value < 0.05. Urban measures

Paired Differences Mean

Pair 1 Pair 2 Pair 3 Pair 4 Pair 5

WALK SCORE GROUP1 WALK SCORE GROUP 2 JOBS-HOUSING BALANCE GROUP1 JOBS-HOUSING BALANCE GROUP2 ESTIMATED NUMBER OF JOBS GROUP 1 ESTIMATED NUMBER OF JOBS GROUP 2 CATCHMENT AREA GROUP1 CATCHMENT AREA GROUP2 TRANSPORT MODES GROUP 1 TRANSPORT MODES GROUP2

Std. Deviation

Std. Error Mean

t

df

Sig. (2-tailed)

95% Confidence Interval of the Difference Lower

Upper

66.250

10.626

5.313

49.341

83.159

12.469

3

0.001

0.250

0.500

0.250

−0.546-

1.046

1.000

3

0.391

6444.750

3004.423

1502.211

1664.043

11225.457

4.290

3

0.023

0.250

0.500

0.250

−0.546

1.046

1.000

3

0.391

2.500

1.000

0.500

0.909

4.091

5.000

3

0.015

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accommodate the larger portion of the population while being weaker or even neglected when it comes to the neighborhoods supplied in New Borg El-Arab. Nevertheless, high density of built-up areas and F.A.R are other crucial factors that can easily differentiate between the two groups of neighborhoods in various forms such as:

preferences and needs and also to meet the demand for housing with another form where the role of government shifts from being a direct supplier to enabler in the housing market. “Ibni Betak” – literally build your own house- is one of the well-known Programme that the government initiated in 2005 as part of National Housing Program (NHP). It was a step towards supplying small sized utilized lots in New Urban Communities which included eleven different governorates of a total approximate area 700 ha (Hussein et al., 2014). In summary, the programme was a step forward to stimulate the incremental process that takes place informally in a new formal shape. Despite the critics, and controversial opinions that program has received whether if it was successful or not in meeting the demands of housing, and reaching the proper target group, it worth to mention that it was a step forward to adapt to the people's needs and engage them in the process of housing supply. In addition to being a new shifting paradigm in the role of the government for only being a direct supplier of units without any intervention or participation of the clients, toward an enabler in the housing market that gives a degree of freedom for the household's members to adjust their own house according to their current needs. However, neighborhood characteristics was another issue in this initiative. Thus, it advocates that the importance of considering first the urban measures that show significance on the scale of the neighborhood design which cannot be achieved by individual dwellers before providing individual housing lots. Not only mobility aspects are important when supplying new neighborhoods, but also proximity is another key challenge when supplying new neighborhood in Egypt, i.e.: proximity to work, proximity to family, proximity to amenities, or even proximity to public transportation. According to Sims et al. (2008), 52% of inhabitants who are demanding residential units in Egypt tend to choose units in the same neighborhood. The main reasons for choosing a certain area for the future demand is perceived to be affordability of prices, proximity to family and friends and proximity to work.

• Regardless of the physical aspects that can affect the quality of

•

4.4. Research limitations

•

The research cannot be adjoined only on the means of secondary and census data because the existing ones are very limited in both; content and quality, nevertheless, not up to date. Hence, collecting primary data becomes the only way. It is worth mentioning that the political transition and the current socioeconomic conditions in Egypt was one of the crucial challenges for collecting data directly from the field. A Large number of people was so suspicious with the ongoing field works in the selected neighborhoods, even after knowing the main reasons for the study. While this research explores walkability based on proximity-related measures underlined in Walkscore indices, there is a wide spectrum of factors that may also influence walkability, in which they are not addressed in this research. For instance, the quality and the design of sidewalks in each neighborhood is a crucial factor. On one side, they may influence the safety of walking or limit walkability to certain age groups. It is worth mentioning that these design parameters of sidewalks in Egypt are often undermined attributes in the design and planning processes in neighborhoods in new development and often deteriorated in neighborhoods in older cities.

•

walking inside the neighborhoods – street lighting, barrier freedom, sidewalk quality, etc. – it is found that walkability concerning only proximity to services, amenities, and public transport modes has to be considered as an essential measure for planning cities in Egypt that could attract inhabitants. On the one hand, the lifestyle, and socio-economic factors for most of the middle and low-income class in Egypt tend to encourage people to walk, or in different words, it pushes them to search for areas that could match with their needs. While on the other hand, after analyzing neighborhoods that are densely populated by inhabitants living in Alexandria, unlike those neighborhoods of New Borg El-Arab, it is obvious that the walkability is an essential measure for designing a neighborhood. Moreover, the values of walkability tend to be above average when they are compared to other new cities in Egypt or different cities worldwide. Thus, it means addressing walkability from the side of planning theories may not be sufficient to meet the needs of the people living in Egypt. The statistically significant result of absolute number of Job opportunities in the neighborhoods, in contrast to the non-significant result of jobs-housing balance median, in case of old districts of Alexandria, can explain that the number of jobs based on services and mixed uses inside the neighborhood is extremely higher than those in the same size neighborhoods in New Borg El-Arab. Thus, it means the number of jobs in old districts is higher than the standards of planning theories, and people tend to live in an environment of higher density in built-up areas and F.A.R. Nevertheless, the informal building heights add more housing units which decrease the value of job-housing balance. While in the case of New Borg El-Arab, the number of job opportunities is lower than the average of the existing old neighborhoods, even though it is balanced to the housing units. Furthermore, the number of housing units, consequently, F.A.R, and built-up ratio are extremely low compared to similar size neighborhoods in case of the old districts of Alexandria. The significant result of the number of public transport modes explains how public transport modes are missing in the case of New Borg El-Arab compared to other districts of Alexandria-including the formal and informal transport modes.

Based on the conclusion, three recommendations can be drawn: First, the nature of the establishment of new cities is to be built by law in arid areas in the desert hinterland. Thus, it adds more challenges for providing neighborhoods of higher walking standards that can encourage people to walk to their daily need activities with such a highdegree temperature. Therefore, a climate responsive design should be considered when planning neighborhoods which can provide public spaces with comfortable shading areas for pedestrians. Second, adding the transportation costs as an added value to the land costs can be a plausible solution for providing a neighborhood that matches with the needs of the local inhabitants. In most cases, when a land is offered by the government, it includes utility costs such as; water, electricity, sewage costs as added costs. Therefore, adding transportation costs can be a plausible solution. According to law no. 59/1979 in the subject of New Urban Communities (NUCA), Article no. (28)1 shows that NUCA is entitled to search, suggest, implement and follow up plans, policies, and program related to the establishment of

5. Conclusion and recommendations The role of the physical characteristics of the neighborhood in the decision of selecting a residential location is a key factor. After comparing four neighborhoods in the older districts of Alexandria, among other four neighborhoods supplied in one of new cities established nearby Alexandria- New Borg El-Arab, it was found that walkability, densities, number of jobs provided by mixed uses and services in the neighborhood, as well as public transport modes, are significant measures that are highly different in these two groups of neighborhoods. It is unequivocal that these measures are stronger in neighborhoods that

1

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The law articles have been translated by the Authors from Arabic.

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Fig. 10. Conceptual economic model for the supply of Public Transport system in New Cities in EGYPT. Source: Compiled by the authors

project, whereas the second source can be the profit of the government's share from the short-term PPP bus system. In this case, the project has a higher tendency to become feasible since the capital exists, nevertheless, it takes place once the occupation of new cities is at an equilibrium level and there are enough people to use it, unlike the first short phase where the occupancy rate is not the significant factor.

new urban communities. Furthermore, Article (32) for the same law illustrates that the main resources of the authority can be the outcome of the activities offered by the authority including the commission of business or services rendered to others. Thus, it opens the door for planners and policy-makers to further elaborate on integrating transportation planning in the process of housing supply (NUCA, 2016). Last, a public transport system represents a crucial issue, especially when it comes to the implementation phase in the context of the new Egyptian cities. On one hand, due to the low occupancy in these new cities – either because of vacant units or unoccupied units that makes the project not feasible to be considered. While on the other hand, the initial cost of the public transport infrastructure adds another challenge for the governmental authorities to realize the project. It remains questionable who comes first, the inhabitants, or the public transport system. This issue can be solved by engaging the different stakeholders in the supply process of the public transport system (See Fig. 10). This proposed model aims to engage the different stakeholders in the process of implementing the transport system. Nevertheless, it is based on two phases: short-term, and long-term plans. Moreover, it explains how a well-functioning transport system for a new city in Egypt can be provided. First, NUCA offers land with the utility infrastructures such as water, and electricity, as added costs to the land price. Hence, transport costs can be also added costs to the infrastructure costs of the land developed. Consequently, these transport costs would be collected directly from investors, or buyers of land, nevertheless, housing unit. Moreover, NUCA plays an effective role in this model which can be explained in two main processes. First, it facilitates a bus system by the engagement of the private sector through Public Private Partnership (PPP) for a short-term plan for the first 3–5 years of realization of a new city. Indeed, there are good incentives for the private sector to run such a project for the short term because the initial costs of the infrastructure are already collected, and secured by NUCA to sustain the project. Furthermore, the occupancy rate of the new cities is not a significant factor affecting the profitability of the project in the short term. While on the long-term plan, a mass public transit system can be achieved. The main capital for this system can be covered from two main sources; fixed estimated percentage2 of added transportation costs can represent the main financial source for the

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