The relationship between meritocratic beliefs and career outcomes: The moderating role of socioeconomic status

Journal of Vocational Behavior 116 (2020) 103370

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The relationship between meritocratic beliefs and career outcomes: The moderating role of socioeconomic status

T

⁎

Shi Hua, , Xueping Shena,b, Peter A. Creedc, Michelle Hoodc a b c

School of Education Science, Nanjing Normal University, China Education and Research Center for Career Development, Nanjing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics, China School of Applied Psychology, Griffith University, Australia

A R T IC LE I N F O

ABS TRA CT

Keywords: Meritocratic beliefs Socioeconomic status Career goal clarity Career goal persistence Self-regulation

Based on a self-regulatory perspective, this study examined a serial mediation model in which meritocratic beliefs about social attainment were related to higher expected income via career goal clarity and goal persistence. In addition, we tested whether these potential relationships were stronger for young people from lower SES families. Using a sample of 251 young adults (66.5% male), we found, as expected, meritocratic beliefs were related to greater goal clarity and goal persistence, which, in turn, were related to higher expected salary. The relationships between meritocratic beliefs and goal clarity, persistence, and expected salary, as well as the serial mediation relationship, were stronger for those who perceived themselves to be less socially advantaged. Contrary to expectation, meritocratic beliefs only related indirectly to expected salary. These findings highlight the importance of meritocratic beliefs about social outcomes and SES in young people's career self-regulation.

1. Introduction Young people's beliefs about the determinants of social attainment play a crucial role in the development and pursuit of career aspirations, as these beliefs shape their expectations regarding opportunities for social mobility, influence the academic and career goals they set, and direct goal-related, self-regulatory processes and strategies (Heckhausen & Shane, 2015; Laurin, Fitzsimons, & Kay, 2011). When young people hold beliefs that personal effort, ability, and education are the reasons behind social outcomes (i.e., meritocratic beliefs), they tend to perceive society as predictable, where upward mobility is allowed and can be achieved (Laurin et al., 2011; Li, 2016). This potentially leads them to engage with goals that can improve their social position and lead to better career outcomes (Laurin et al., 2011; Shane & Heckhausen, 2016). Previous studies also suggest that beliefs about social attainment do not operate in a vacuum, but interact with the person's family socioeconomic status (SES). For example, beliefs in merit protected socially disadvantaged people from lower well-being, and restored confidence for future economic success for those who perceived less personal control (Goode, Keefer, & Molina, 2014; McCoy, Wellman, Cosley, Saslow, & Epel, 2013). However, in the career domain, very few studies have directly investigated the boundary condition of SES in the relationship between meritocratic beliefs and career outcomes (see Laurin et al., 2011, for an exception), and no studies, to our knowledge, have tested how and when meritocratic beliefs benefit lower SES young people. In the current study, we took a self-regulatory perspective and expanded the existing literature by testing how meritocratic beliefs

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Corresponding author at: School of Education Science, Nanjing Normal University, Nanjing 210097, China. E-mail addresses: [email protected] (S. Hu), [email protected] (X. Shen), p.creed@griffith.edu.au (P.A. Creed), michelle.hood@griffith.edu.au (M. Hood). https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jvb.2019.103370 Received 9 November 2018; Received in revised form 29 October 2019; Accepted 17 December 2019 Available online 19 December 2019 0001-8791/ © 2019 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

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SES + Meritocratic beliefs

-

+

Goal clarity

+

Goal persistence

+

Expected salary

+

Fig. 1. Hypothesized model for study. Meritocratic beliefs about social attainment is related to expected salary via goal clarity and goal persistence; lower SES strengthens the relationships between meritocratic beliefs and goal clarity, persistence, and expected salary, and also strengthens the indirect relationship with expected salary via goal clarity and persistence.

relate to career attainment in third year Chinese university students. The essence of self-regulation theory is that people manage their own goal-directed behaviours (Bandura, 1991). When setting and pursuing goals, people regulate motivation and actions based on an evaluation of their capabilities to achieve the goals (i.e., personal efficacy). However, they also consider whether the environment they are living in provides enough opportunities for them to exercise their personal capabilities (i.e., perceived environmental controllability; Bandura & Wood, 1989). Accordingly, we examined a serial mediation model, in which young people who held meritocratic beliefs in social attainment expected higher career attainment (i.e., expected salary), via setting clear and well-defined goals (i.e., career goal clarity) and persisting with these goals (i.e., goal persistence). We also assessed whether these relationships were stronger for young people from lower SES families (see Fig. 1 for the hypothesized relationships). 1.1. Meritocratic beliefs and career development in the Chinese context In China, there has been an increasing emphasis on the role of personal merit (i.e., meritocracy) in the allocation of social resources (e.g., occupation, wealth) since market reforms commenced in the 1970s (Cao, 2004). However, in the past two decades, public awareness has been raised regarding economic inequality and economic and cultural production in the society (Xie, 2016). Recently, scholars have given attention to beliefs about social attainment in contemporary China. Using a nationally representative sample (26,936 participants), Li (2016) showed that > 80% of Chinese people held meritocratic beliefs about social attainment and 60% held stronger beliefs regarding merit than non-merit factors (e.g., family wealth), indicating that meritocratic beliefs are prevalent societal beliefs in China. However, to date, no studies have examined how these societal beliefs influence the life outcomes of Chinese people and how they shape young people's career development processes. Chinese university students enrolled in four-year degree programs typically start seeking graduate employment during the second semester of their third year. As they are very focused on career activities and their career direction at that time, they are a good population on which to test the effects of meritocratic beliefs on career development processes. 1.2. Meritocratic beliefs and career attainment Previous research on self-regulation has shown that beliefs regarding personal and environmental controllability play an important role in self-regulatory mechanisms and goal attainment (Bandura & Wood, 1989). For example, the belief that outcomes/ goals can be controlled by ability and effort (i.e., internal locus of control) is an important source of perceived control, which, in turn, relates to active self-regulatory processes and better performance (Park & Kim, 1998; Phillips & Gully, 1997). In contrast, when attributing outcomes to environmental circumstances (e.g., fate, luck), the resulting reduced personal control can discourage selfdirected, motivational processes (Zimmerman, 2000). In addition, holding beliefs that there are realistic opportunities to attain desired outcomes (i.e., environmental controllability) also enhances goal outcomes (Bandura & Wood, 1989). This is because beliefs about fairness and predictability provide assurances that people will get what they deserve and deserve what they get, which then motivates them to invest time and effort to pursue long-term goals and expect better returns in the future (Laurin et al., 2011; McCoy et al., 2013). When considering social attainment, meritocratic beliefs not only reflect the view that outcomes are attributable to personal characteristics, but also imply that there is social mobility in society and that social resources are distributed fairly according to personal effort (Goode et al., 2014; Laurin et al., 2011; Li, 2016). Consistent with the general self-regulation literature, recent research has provided support for the importance of meritocratic beliefs in young people's career-related attainment. For example, Shane and Heckhausen (2016) showed that meritocratic beliefs about social outcomes were related positively to higher expectancy of goal attainment and more rapid goal progress in university students. Similarly, McCoy et al. (2013) found that beliefs in a fair society were related to higher expectations of future economic success. Informed by the self-regulation literature and prior studies, we expected that when considering employment, young people who hold meritocratic beliefs about social attainment will anticipate greater career attainment (Seijts, 1998; Xie, Liu, & Gan, 2011), which we operationalized as expected salary one year after graduation. 2

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Hypothesis 1. Meritocratic beliefs are related to higher levels of expected salary.

1.3. Mediators: goal clarity and goal persistence Self-regulation theories also provide possible explanations for the effect of perceived controllability on favourable outcomes. In the career domain, young people who perceive personal and environmental controllability have a greater sense of control over their career direction, feel more responsible for their future career and, thus, set clearer and more realistic goals and make specific plans for achieving their desired outcomes (Anderson & Brown, 1997; Kerpelman & Mosher, 2004). Clearly defined goals can indirectly affect goal attainment and success by directing people to the activities needed to achieve the goals, and by focusing their attention and effort on these activities (i.e., goal persistence; Locke, Chah, Harrison, & Lustgarten, 1989; Morisano, Hirsh, Peterson, Pihl, & Shore, 2010). From this, goal clarity and goal persistence are two potentially important and sequential mediators that can explain the relationship between perceived controllability and career outcomes. However, previous studies have provided empirical support for the mediating role of goal persistence only, and not assessed goal clarity. For example, Shane and Heckhausen (2013) found that university students who perceived greater controllability about future social attainment were more likely to maintain effort to reach their career goals, even when confronted with difficulties or setbacks, and effort, in turn, was related to better career outcomes, such as more rapid career goal progress and higher expected SES (see Bernardo, Clemente, & Wang, 2018, and Shane & Heckhausen, 2016, for parallel findings). Prior studies also found that when holding meritocratic beliefs, young people were more likely to have a future-focused perspective and give more attention to achieving desired future outcomes (Goode et al., 2014; Laurin et al., 2011; Xie et al., 2011). This future orientation is crucial for young people, as it structures future-oriented actions, such as setting specific, clear, and realistic goals (Seijts, 1998). However, it remains unclear whether goal clarity actually mediates the effect of meritocratic beliefs on goal persistence, although existing studies have suggested that goal clarity is related to more career preparation and greater effort to achieve set goals (Rogers, Creed, & Glendon, 2008; Zikic & Saks, 2009). It also remains unanswered whether the effect on career attainment can be explained by the combination of the two mediators (i.e., goal clarity and goal persistence). From the above, we expected that when contemplating their later career, young people who hold stronger meritocratic beliefs about social attainment will be more engaged with goal-setting activities, have a clearer sense of the job they want, and, in turn, show greater persistence for their goals, which will then increase their expectations regarding career attainment. Hypothesis 2. The relationship between meritocratic beliefs and expected salary is sequentially mediated by career goal clarity and career goal persistence.

1.4. Familial SES as a moderator Recent research has suggested that beliefs in a meritocratic society might be beneficial to socially disadvantaged groups (Laurin et al., 2011). One possible mechanism is that lower SES people are more likely to perceive less personal control due to a lifetime of exposure to environmental threats and instability, and beliefs that future social attainment is predictable and controllable can compensate for this and restore confidence regarding life outcomes (Goode et al., 2014; McCoy et al., 2013). Past research has provided some indirect support for this. For example, McCoy et al. (2013) found that perceived control fully mediated the positive relationships between meritocratic beliefs and psychological and physical well-being in lower SES women. Similarly, in an experimental study, Goode et al. (2014) reported that endorsement of meritocratic beliefs buffered anxiety in the face of lowered personal control. Laurin et al. (2011) have provided an alternative explanation: compared to more advantaged counterparts, lower SES people are more likely to be victims of social injustice, and, thus, are more inclined to connect their self-regulation strategies to perceptions and beliefs in societal fairness. Across four studies, these authors consistently found that the link between societal fairness beliefs (i.e., based on personal merit) and willingness to invest in long-term goals (i.e., willingness to invest, prioritization of work) was positive and stronger for socially disadvantaged people (i.e., lower SES). Following this, we expected that meritocratic beliefs also will be beneficial to lower SES young people when setting career-related goals. Young people who grow up in families with limited material and social resources are more likely to experience disorganised and stressful environments, which, in turn, reduce personal control about future social attainment and induce alertness to social injustice (Chen & Miller, 2012; Laurin et al., 2011). Previous studies have found that lower SES young people are more likely to have lower career self-efficacy and set lower educational and career aspirations (e.g., Mau & Bikos, 2000; Thompson, 2012). However, beliefs that everyone will finally get what they merit are likely to compensate for this loss of perceived control, and, at the same time, increase motivation to pursue desired goals (Goode et al., 2014; Kay & Eibach, 2013; Laurin et al., 2011). Therefore, we hypothesized that the links between meritocratic beliefs and motivational processes (i.e., goal clarity and goal persistence) and career attainment (i.e., expected salary) will be stronger for lower SES young people, and that lower SES also will strengthen the indirect relationship between meritocratic beliefs and expected salary via goal clarity and persistence. We measured subjective family SES, which refers to the person's self-perception of family social position relative to others, to assess young people's familial SES. This is because subjective SES is more consistently and strongly related to personal control, compared to objective SES (Kraus, Piff, & Keltner, 2009). 3

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Hypothesis 3. The relationship between meritocratic beliefs and career goal clarity will be stronger for lower SES young adults. Hypothesis 4. The relationship between meritocratic beliefs and career goal persistence will be stronger for lower SES young adults. Hypothesis 5. The relationship between meritocratic beliefs and expected salary will be stronger for lower SES young adults. Hypothesis 6. The sequential indirect relationship between meritocratic beliefs and expected salary via goal clarity and persistence will be stronger for lower SES young adults.

2. Method 2.1. Participants We invited 433 third-year students from one university in Nanjing, China to participate, and 281 agreed (response rate 64.90%). Of these, 251 were included, as some participants did not complete the full survey or used patterned responses. There were no missing data in this final sample (age range = 19–22 years; M = 20.53; 66.50% male). Participants were science and technology students enrolled in a range of disciplines (e.g., computer science and technology, biomedicine, engineering, automation, information security). To obtain a proxy for academic ability, we asked students to report their Grade-Point Average (GPA) for the past three years (M = 3.23; SD = 0.62; range = 1 to 5). 2.2. Measures We used standard translation/back translation methodology (Jones, Lee, Phillips, Zhang, & Jaceldo, 2001) to translate the two scales of meritocratic beliefs and goal persistence from English to Mandarin Chinese. The items were first translated to Chinese by the first author, who is a Chinese national, bilingual researcher. These were then back-translated to English by a bilingual research assistant, who is also a Chinese national. The first and second authors compared the back-translated English version with the original and adjusted as needed. All other scales had Chinese versions. 2.2.1. Meritocratic beliefs about social attainment Meritocratic beliefs were measured using the 3-item scale devised by Smith and Stone (1989) and modified by Shane and Heckhausen (2016). The scale was adapted to assess societal beliefs in the Chinese context (e.g., “People at the top of the social status ladder in America are there because they have the talent and the ability to succeed” was changed to “People at the top of the social status ladder in China are there because they have the talent and the ability to succeed”). Participants responded on a 6-point Likerttype scale (1 = strongly disagree to 6 = strongly agree), with higher summed scores indicating stronger meritocratic beliefs. The scale has sound internal reliability with university students (α > 0.76; Shane & Heckhausen, 2016), and, in support of validity, has been shown to be related to greater goal engagement (Bernardo et al., 2018; Shane & Heckhausen, 2016). With the current sample, we confirmed that the three items loaded on one factor (factor loadings ranged from 0.58 to 0.87); α was 0.76, and the positive correlation with goal persistence (r = 0.23, p < .001) provided additional support for validity. 2.2.2. Goal clarity We used the Job Search Clarity Scale (Côté, Saks, & Zikic, 2006) to assess career goal clarity. The scale was developed originally for university students who were seeking employment. The validated Chinese version (Liao, 2007) consists of 5 items; for example, “I have set a goal for the type of job I want to have when I graduate.” Participants responded on a 5-point Likert-type scale (1 = strongly disagree to 5 = strongly agree), with higher summed scores indicating greater goal clarity. Good reliability has been reported with Western and Chinese university students (αs = 0.81 to 0.88), and support for validity demonstrated by finding that job searching clarity was related to higher job search self-efficacy and job search intensity (Côté et al., 2006; Liao, 2007). Alpha was 0.87. 2.2.3. Goal persistence The 5-item Persistence in Goal Striving Scale (Wrosch, Heckhausen, & Lachman, 2000) was modified to assess career goal persistence (e.g., “When faced with a bad situation, I do what I can do to change it for the better” was changed to “When faced with a bad situation regarding the career goal that I have been striving for, I do what I can do to change it for the better”). Participants responded on a 5-point Likert-type scale (1 = strongly disagree to 5 = strongly agree), with higher summed scores indicating more persistence. Previous studies reported sound reliability (αs = 0.71 to 0.90) with Western and Chinese university students, and found that the scale related to less goal disengagement and stress and more positive attitudes towards subjective well-being (Shang & Heckhausen, 2013; Wrosch et al., 2000; Xu, Wang, Chen, & Chen, 2006). In the current sample, α = 0.80. 2.2.4. Expected salary To assess participant's expected career outcomes, we followed previous studies of Chinese university students (Wei, 2014) and asked them to report their expected monthly salary (“Please indicate your expected monthly salary for the first year after graduation”; 1 = lower than 3000 CNY to 6 = higher than 7000 CNY). 4

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2.2.5. Subjective SES We assessed students' perceptions of their SES using the MacArthur Scale of Subjective Social Status (Adler, Epel, Castellazzo, & Ickovics, 2000). This consists of a drawing of a 10-rung ladder, on which participants are asked to indicate where they would place their family, based on the statement: “Think of this ladder as representing where people stand in our society. At the top of the ladder are the people who are the most advantaged in terms of money, education, and employment. At the bottom are the people who are the most disadvantaged.” Previous studies have found this scale to be moderately related to objective SES indicators, such as parents' educational level, job status, and familial income (Shane & Heckhausen, 2013). 2.3. Procedure The study was conducted with the approval of the first author's university ethics' committee. Data were collected at the end of second semester, third year. Permission was granted to approach course convenors and provide information about the study and a link to the informed consent form and online survey, which they were asked to pass on to students in their classes. Volunteer students who completed the informed consent form could follow a link to the online survey, and, when this was completed, follow a second link to enter a draw to win a CNY¥500 (≈US$73.50) shopping voucher. The students' informed consent agreements, survey responses, and prize draw details (i.e., name and email address) were recorded separately and were not able to be connected to one another, ensuring anonymity. 3. Results 3.1. Data management We used structural equation modelling (maximum likelihood estimation; AMOS V24) to assess the serial mediation model, where meritocratic beliefs about social attainment related to greater goal clarity and goal persistence, which, in turn, related to higher expected salary (Hypotheses 1–2). In addition, we also assessed whether SES moderated these potential relationships (Hypotheses 3–6). To reduce the number of parameter estimates and increase model parsimony, we used an item-to-construct balance approach to parcel items for the two scales of goal clarity and goal persistence prior to the analyses (three parcels per variable; Little, Cunningham, Shahar, & Widaman, 2002). Alphas for the parcels met recommended levels (i.e., 0.54 to 0.81; Kishton & Widaman, 1994). First, we conducted a measurement model to confirm that the three latent variables (i.e., merit beliefs, goal clarity, and goal persistence) could be represented by their items/parcels and were independent of one other. When assessing the moderating role of SES, we created a latent variable interaction term using the recommended two-step residual centring approach (Little, Bovaird, & Widaman, 2006; Steinmetz, Davidov, & Schmidt, 2011). To do this, we found the product of the SES indicator and each of the meritocratic beliefs items, which resulted in three product terms. We then regressed each product term, in turn, onto the four indicators (i.e., SES and the three meritocratic beliefs items), and used the three residuals as indicators for the latent variable interaction term. Moderation is indicated when there is a significant path from the interaction term to an outcome variable (Steinmetz et al., 2011). The 95% bias-corrected confidence intervals based on1000 bootstrap samples were used to judge the statistical significance of the mediation and moderation effects. 3.2. Preliminary analyses First, we examined the variables for skewness (all standardized skew statistics were between −1 and 1) and kurtosis (between −2 and 2), finding no problems (Gravetter & Wallnau, 2014). The 3-factor measurement model yielded a good fit to the data and was the best of three models assessed based on the fit indices (model comparisons available from authors on request), χ2(24) = 53.06, p = .01; CFI = 0.97, TLI = 0.96, SRMR = 0.04 (Hair, Black, Babin, & Anderson, 2010). All factor loadings were > 0.58 (range 0.58 to 0.90; see Table 1), and the correlations among the latent variables mirrored those among the scale totals (see Table 2). As expected, meritocratic beliefs were related to higher career goal clarity (r = 0.21, p < .001) and goal persistence (r = 0.36, p < .001), while goal clarity and goal persistence were related to higher expected salary (r = 0.22 and 0.23, respectively; ps < 0.001). These associations supported the propositions that young people who held stronger merit-based beliefs were more likely to set clearer career goals and persist in the face of difficulties/setbacks, and that those with clearer goals and higher persistence were more likely to expect a higher salary. Contrary to expectation, meritocratic beliefs were not related to expected salary (r = −0.03, p = .61), suggesting no direct link between these two beliefs. Age, GPA and SES had no relationships with meritocratic beliefs or the outcomes (i.e., goal clarity, persistence, and expected salary; rs = −0.08 to 0.09, ps > 0.05). In addition, t-tests showed that male students (t = 2.82, p = .01) were more likely to expect a higher salary than female students, and an ANOVA indicated that students from different disciplines differed in expected salary, F(6, 245) = 8.46, p < .001. 3.3. Mediation analyses To rule out potential confounding background effects, we included age, gender, GPA, and study discipline as covariates when testing the hypotheses. The serial mediation model, which included all possible direct paths (i.e., from meritocratic beliefs to goal 5

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Table 1 Factor loadings for the measurement model (N = 251). Variable and indicator

Unstandardized factor loading

SE

Meritocratic beliefs Item 1 Item 2 Item 3

1.00 1.23 1.03

0.15 0.12

8.16⁎⁎⁎ 8.24⁎⁎⁎

0.58 0.85 0.74

Goal clarity Parcel 1 Parcel 2 Parcel 3

1.00 1.14 1.05

0.07 0.08

15.99⁎⁎⁎ 13.02⁎⁎⁎

0.86 0.90 0.73

Goal persistence Parcel 1 Parcel 2 Parcel 3

1.00 1.01 0.80

0.08 0.08

12.20⁎⁎⁎ 10.57⁎⁎⁎

0.86 0.78 0.67

⁎⁎⁎

Z

Standardized factor loading

All factor loadings are significant at p < .001.

Table 2 Descriptive statistics, zero-order correlations (below diagonal), and sorrelations among latent variables (above diagonal); N = 251. Variables 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8.

Meritocratic beliefs Goal clarity Persistence Salary GPA SES Age Gender

M 4.51 3.33 3.96 4.64 3.23 4.71 20.53 0.33

SD 0.87 0.69 0.47 1.28 0.62 1.61 0.32 0.47

1 – 0.21⁎⁎ 0.36⁎⁎⁎ −0.03 0.02 −0.06 0.01 0.12

2

3 ⁎⁎

0.21 – 0.45⁎⁎⁎ 0.22⁎⁎⁎ −0.01 0.06 0.03 −0.10

4

5

6

7

– 0.09 −0.06 0.05 −0.18⁎⁎

– 0.16⁎ −0.03 0.24⁎⁎⁎

– 0.02 0.10

– 0.02

⁎⁎⁎

0.45 0.53⁎⁎⁎ – 0.23⁎⁎⁎ −0.03 0.07 −0.02 −0.05

Note. SES = socio-economic status; GPA = grade-point average. ⁎ p < .05. ⁎⁎ p < .01. ⁎⁎⁎ p < .001.

persistence and salary and from goal clarity to expected salary), had a good fit, χ2(69) = 101.39, p = .01; CFI = 0.97, TLI = 0.95, SMRM = 0.04, and showed an improved fit over a model that only included the indirect paths, Δχ2(3) = 26.48, p < .001. In the accepted model, there were significant total effects of meritocratic beliefs on goal clarity (β = 0.22, p = .01) and persistence (β = 0.45, p < .001), but not on salary (β = 0.03, p = .68); thus, Hypothesis 1 was not supported. Also, we found positive direct paths from goal clarity to persistence (β =0.46, p < .001), and from persistence to expected salary (β =0.23, p = .01). In addition, when the mediators were included, there was a significant direct path from meritocratic beliefs to goal persistence (β = 0.35, p < .001), whereas the direct paths from meritocratic beliefs and goal clarity to expected salary were not significant (β = −0.09 and 0.05, p = .25 and 0.69, respectively). We then confirmed a significant total indirect effect from meritocratic beliefs to expected salary (indirect effect = 0.11; total effect = 0.03). We further found that meritocratic beliefs related to expected salary through two significant mediation paths: through persistence alone (CI95: 0.02, 0.28), and through a three-staged path (i.e., meritocratic beliefs → goal clarity → goal persistence → expected salary; CI95: 0.01, 0.11); thus, H2 was supported (see Table 3). Although not hypothesized explicitly, we found that goal clarity partially mediated the link between meritocratic beliefs and goal persistence (CI95: 0.02, 0.19; indirect effect = 0.10; total effect = 0.46), and goal persistence fully mediated between goal clarity and salary (CI95: 0.02, 0.19; indirect effect = 0.10; total effect = 0.13).

3.4. Moderation analyses When assessing whether SES moderated the relationships between meritocratic beliefs and the self-regulatory processes and goal attainment (Hypotheses 3–6), we linked the SES term and the latent interaction variable to both mediators (i.e., goal clarity and persistence) and the outcome variable (i.e., expected salary). The model fitted well, χ2(123) = 143.02, p = .10; CFI = 0.99, TLI = 0.98, SRMR =0.05. There were no significant total effects of SES on goal clarity (β = 0.10, p = .11), persistence (β = 0.11, p = .14), and expected salary (β = −0.05, p = .37). We did found total effects for the interaction term on goal clarity (β = −0.16; CI95: −0.29, −0.02, p = .02; R2 = 0.11), persistence (β = −0.20; CI95: −0.32, −0.07, p = .02; R2 = 0.42), and expected salary (β = −0.18; CI95: −0.30, −0.01, p = .03; R2 = 0.28), indicating that lower SES strengthened the links between meritocratic beliefs 6

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Table 3 Summary data for the mediation and moderation models (N = 251). Variables

Goal clarity Goal persistence Expected salary

Gendera Dummy 1b Dummy 2c Dummy 3d GPA Meritocratic beliefs Goal clarity Goal persistence Indirect effect SES Merit⁎SES R2

−0.10 (0.06) 0.15⁎ (0.07) 0.11 (0.07) 0.08 (0.06) 0.03 (0.06) 0.22⁎⁎ (0.10)

−0.15⁎ (0.06) 0.20⁎⁎ (0.06) 0.27⁎⁎⁎ (0.06) 0.26⁎⁎⁎ (0.07) 0.17⁎⁎ (0.06) −0.09 (0.09) 0.05 (0.06) 0.23⁎⁎ (0.09) 0.11 [0.03, 0.19] −0.07 (0.06) −0.13⁎ (0.07) 0.28

0.01 (0.06) −0.01 (0.06) 0.12 (0.07) 0.02 (0.05) −0.02 (0.06) 0.35⁎⁎⁎ (0.07) 0.46⁎⁎⁎ (0.07) 0.10 [0.01, 0.19] 0.06 (0.07) −0.13⁎ (0.06) 0.42

0.10 (0.06) −0.16⁎ (0.07) 0.11

Note. The upper half of the table presents summary data for the mediation model; the lower half presents data for the moderation model; Coefficients are standardized; Standard errors reported in round brackets, 95% CIs for indirect effect in square brackets. a 0 = male, 1 = female. b Dummy 1 = computer science/technology major. c Dummy 2 = internet/engineering major. d Dummy 3 = detection guidance/control techniques major; Reference group = electronics/information engineering major. ⁎ p < .05. ⁎⁎ p < .01. ⁎⁎⁎ p < .001.

and the process variables and attainment (see Fig. 2 and Table 3). We used the regression coefficients to plot the interaction effects: the links between meritocratic beliefs and goal clarity, goal persistence, and expected salary were positive and stronger for students with lower subjective SES, and weaker for students with higher SES (see Fig. 3a, b, and c); Hypotheses 3, 4, and 5 were supported. In addition, we found a significant indirect effect from the interaction term to expected salary (CI95: −0.11, −0.02; indirect effect = −0.05; total effect = −0.18), indicating that lower SES also strengthened the indirect relationship between meritocratic beliefs and expected salary (see Fig. 2). Further, we confirmed that the interaction term related to salary through goal persistence alone (CI95: −0.17, −0.01), and via the two sequential mediators of goal clarity and persistence (CI95: −0.07, −0.01), supporting Hypothesis 6.

4. Discussion Based on a self-regulatory perspective (Bandura & Wood, 1989; Locke et al., 1989), we examined a serial mediation model, in which meritocratic beliefs about social attainment related to expected graduate salary via clear and well-defined career goals and goal persistence. Also, we tested whether the motivational role of these beliefs was disproportionately stronger for young people from lower SES backgrounds. Our results suggest that meritocratic beliefs were an important source of motivation for social mobility aspirations for these young people, and that these beliefs benefitted socially disadvantaged young people especially. -.05/-.07 .11/.06

SES .10 Meritocratic beliefs .59***

Item 1

.84***

.75***

Item 2

Item 3

Meritocratic beliefs × SES .80***

.89***

Goal clarity

.23** .16*

.86***

Parcel 1

.90***

.86***

.73***

Parcel 2

Goal persistence

.42***

Parcel 3

Parcel 1

.21**

Expected salary

.78*** .67***

Parcel 2

Parcel 3

-.18*/-.13*

-.20**/-.13* .70***

.46***/.36***

.02/-.08

Residual 1 Residual 2 Residual 3

Fig. 2. Standardized estimates for moderated mediation model. Solid lines indicate significant paths; dashed lines indicate non-significant paths. Coefficients before slash are total effects; coefficients after slash are direct effects in presence of the mediator. *p < .05; **p < .01; ***p < .001. 7

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4 Goal clarity

3.5 3 2.5

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(a) SES moderated between meritocratic beliefs about social attainment and goal clarity

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(b) SES moderated between meritocratic beliefs about social attainment and goal persistence

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(c) SES moderated between meritocratic beliefs about social attainment and expected salary Fig. 3. Lower SES strengthened the relationships between meritocratic beliefs about social attainment and (a) goal clarity, (b) goal persistence, and (c) expected salary. (a) SES moderated between meritocratic beliefs about social attainment and goal clarity. (b) SES moderated between meritocratic beliefs about social attainment and goal persistence. (c) SES moderated between meritocratic beliefs about social attainment and expected salary.

4.1. Serial mediation model Previous self-regulation studies have suggested that personal control induced by experiences of personal and environmental controllability might contribute to favourable outcomes for young people. Controllability potentially motivates them to actively engage in goal-setting activities, develop the plans/strategies needed to achieve their goals, and, in turn, increase persistence with goal pursuit when faced with setbacks (Anderson & Brown, 1997; Kerpelman & Mosher, 2004). We operationalized perceived environmental controllability as meritocratic beliefs, and, to our knowledge, were the first to directly test these sequential underlying mechanisms. First, we confirmed that meritocratic beliefs were related to greater job goal clarity and goal persistence. This suggests that faith in a controllable society can provide young people with the confidence needed to invest psychologically in their future, and to focus their attention and effort on activities that might help them increase their social status (Laurin et al., 2011). The specific mechanisms 8

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for this are to set more specific and clearer goals and to be more persistent when facing difficulty or setbacks to those goals (Laurin et al., 2011; Xie et al., 2011). We also confirmed that greater goal clarity was related directly to their goal commitment, and, in turn, with higher expected career attainment (i.e., salary). However, we did not find a direct relationship between meritocratic beliefs and expected salary, suggesting that belief in personal merit is related to future expected income indirectly via goal setting and striving processes. We found that goal clarity partially mediated the relationship between beliefs and goal persistence, explaining 19.15% of the total effect. This indicates that other psychological processes need to be considered. Previous studies have suggested that environmental controllability is important for maintaining personal agency (e.g., self-efficacy for achieving desired goals; Bandura & Wood, 1989), so future research might investigate whether self-efficacy for achieving upward social mobility helps explain additional variance in the relationship between meritocratic beliefs and career goal persistence. We also found that goal persistence fully mediated the relationship between goal clarity and expected salary, supporting the theoretical proposition that clearer goals only relate to higher goal attainment when persisting with goal-related actions (Locke et al., 1989). 4.2. Moderating role of SES Previous studies proposed SES as a potential antecedent of meritocratic beliefs (Kay, Shane, & Heckhausen, 2017; Shane & Heckhausen, 2013). However, these studies found that SES only had weak associations with meritocratic beliefs in university students. We contributed to the literature by examining SES as a moderator between meritocratic beliefs and both the career motivational processes and expected attainment. We found that socially disadvantaged young people with stronger beliefs that personal characteristics are the cause for social attainment were more likely to set more specific and clearer goals, persist with these goals, and expect a higher salary after graduation. These results support previous propositions that people with limited resources are more likely to regulate their actions and goals in accordance with societal beliefs, as beliefs in fairness and controllability can compensate for their loss of personal control, focus their hopes on improvement, and motivate them to strive for the future (Goode et al., 2014; Laurin et al., 2011). In contrast, those from more advantaged backgrounds, who generally report higher personal control due to perceiving sufficient resources and opportunities in life, might be less responsive to fairness beliefs when setting and pursuing career goals as they expect positive outcomes under all circumstances (Kraus et al., 2009; Laurin et al., 2011). In addition to this, we found that lower SES strengthened the indirect relationship between meritocratic beliefs and expected salary via the self-regulatory processes. This suggests that, when endorsing beliefs of personal merit, young people with fewer resources can expect better outcomes by setting more well-defined goals and being more committed to and engaged with these goals. As the two psychological processes (i.e., via goal persistence alone and via the sequential mediators of goal clarity and goal persistence) only partially mediated the moderating effect of SES, future research needs to investigate why and how young people who report lower subjective SES can expect to attain higher income. Laurin et al. (2011) suggested that, for ethnic minority groups, stronger beliefs about personal fairness mediated between primed societal fairness and investment in long-term goals. It is possible that, compared to advantaged groups, socially disadvantaged young people are more likely to connect their societal beliefs to personal concern (e.g., beliefs about personal goal outcomes), and, in turn, raise self-confidence for realizing career goals and associated expectations for attainment (Laurin et al., 2011). 4.3. Practical implications Our study suggests practical implications for counsellors who work with Chinese university students. In recent years, the Chinese public has been increasingly aware of economic inequalities in their society; discussions on this constantly appear in traditional and new media (Lin & de Jong, 2017). Many Chinese young people label themselves as the “second generation of officials”, “second generation of the rich”, and “second generation of the poor”, reflecting their awareness of the influence of family origin on their own life (Kan, 2013). Career counsellors should be alert to students' societal beliefs that might be behind this self-identification. Our findings suggest that for more disadvantaged young people, the belief that a person's social outcomes depend on their personal merit might facilitate their actions related to upward social mobility. Career counsellors are encouraged to help these students understand their underlying beliefs about social mobility. This can facilitate the students to aspire towards greater upward mobility and to then set in place self-regulatory processes to achieve that. Our results suggest that students' meritocratic beliefs are related to career attainment through effective goal setting and striving. In addition to assisting students to examine their underlying beliefs, career counsellors are encouraged to facilitate development of goal-setting and striving attitudes and behaviours. Some established career interventions might be useful here. For example, Peterson and Mar's (2004) intervention aims to improve career goal clarity and persistence. This involves steps of free writing about one's desired life and career future, extracting specific goals from the fantasies, evaluating goal attainability and importance, imagining the consequences of goal attainment (i.e., enhancing motivation), elaborating specific plans and strategies for goal striving, identifying goal obstacles, monitoring goal progress, and evaluating goal commitment. 4.4. Limitations and future research As higher education is still a key mechanism for upward social mobility in China, and elsewhere, the finding that meritocratic beliefs disproportionally benefited lower SES young people might have been particularly likely to emerge in university students (Tan & Kraus, 2015). It is possible that lower SES young people with less education might respond differently to meritocratic beliefs. For 9

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example, these young people might perceive themselves as less competent or hardworking, and beliefs that social outcomes are determined by personal merit might make them feel even less able to achieve upward social mobility. In addition, the level of actual social mobility in the culture might also influence the results. For lower SES young people from cultures with lower mobility, there might be less scope to benefit from holding meritocratic beliefs (Tan & Kraus, 2015). Future research needs to test these possibilities to determine the generalizability of the current results. Other limitations are noted. Our sample was relatively small, which might have underestimated the moderation effects. Thus, replicating the current findings with a larger sample would be useful. In addition, our results were cross-sectional and correlational, and, thus, we cannot confirm the direction of causality. For example, we tested paths from goal clarity and goal persistence to expected salary. It is possible, for example, that expecting a higher salary increases young people's confidence in their career abilities, their motivation for job-searching activities, the clarity of their career goals, and their persistence in attaining those goals (Locke et al., 1989). Goal-setting theory postulates a cybernetic loop, which makes it possible to consider these dynamic relationships from any beginning point in the cycle. Thus, it is possible that there are reciprocal relationships between higher expected salary and these self-regulatory goal processes. Future longitudinal studies are needed to assess these causal directions. Some caution is needed as we surveyed young people who were seeking employment, but who had not yet entered the job market. Thus, we tested anticipated career goal attainment (operationalized as expected graduate salary) rather than actual career or graduate salary outcomes. It is possible that the students might not have accurate and realistic expectations of starting salary as they are inexperienced in the job market (Menon, Pashourtidou, Polycarpou, & Pashardes, 2012), although Chinese students are typically active in exploring and seeking jobs at this point in their degree. What might be less clear is what salary they can attract individually upon graduation. Future studies with multiple waves through to graduate employment success are needed to test fully whether endorsement of meritocratic beliefs promotes clearer goals, which, in turn, lead to greater persistence, and subsequently better graduate career outcomes (e.g., job prestige/personal SES, actual financial income). Finally, we only examined meritocratic beliefs whereas other types of societal beliefs, such as locus of control beliefs (e.g., effort or ability versus luck) also might play an important role in young peoples' career self-regulation and goal attainment. Previous research has found that beliefs in luck are related to more passive self-regulatory strategies (e.g., goal disengagement), and, in turn, to lower goal attainment (Shane & Heckhausen, 2016). It will be important to test whether these other beliefs, alone or in interaction with subjective or more objective measures of SES (e.g., family wealth), influence young people's career goal setting and pursuit, and, thereby, their career expectations and outcomes. 4.5. Conclusions The findings suggest that meritocratic beliefs about social attainment are related to greater career goal clarity and persistence, and, in turn, result in higher expected financial income. Also, students who perceive themselves as less advantaged are more likely to respond to meritocratic beliefs in a more active way: when they believe they will get what they desire through effort and ability, they will be likely to set more specific and clear career goals, commit to these goals, and, consequently, expect higher financial income after graduation. These findings indicate that career goal clarity and goal persistence are important underlying mechanisms for the connection between meritocratic beliefs and goal attainment, and that lower SES young people might benefit more from this belief. Understanding when and how meritocratic beliefs about social attainment are related to career goal outcome is important to inform interventions that can assist young people, especially those from disadvantaged backgrounds, to pursue upward social mobility. References Adler, N. E., Epel, E. S., Castellazzo, G., & Ickovics, J. R. (2000). 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