The role of legal protection in forest conservation in an urban matrix

The role of legal protection in forest conservation in an urban matrix

Land Use Policy xxx (xxxx) xxxx Contents lists available at ScienceDirect Land Use Policy journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/landusepol The ...

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Land Use Policy xxx (xxxx) xxxx

Contents lists available at ScienceDirect

Land Use Policy journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/landusepol

The role of legal protection in forest conservation in an urban matrix Thais M. Issiia, Amanda C. Romeroa, Erico F.L. Pereira-Silvab, Mario R. Attanasio Juniora, Elisa Hardta,* a

Universidade Federal de São Paulo, Department of Environmental Sciences, Laboratory of Applied Ecology and Conservation (LECON), Group of Landscape Ecology and Conservation Planning (LEPLAN), Rua Prof. Artur Riedel, 275, 09972-270, Diadema, SP, Brazil Universidade de São Paulo, Department of Ecology, Rua do Matão, trav. 14, 321, Cidade Universitária, 05508-090, São Paulo, SP, Brazil

b

ARTICLE INFO

ABSTRACT

Keywords: Landscape ecology Legal scenario Landscape metrics Land use and land cover

Establishing forest protection standards is essential for biodiversity conservation and for ensuring the public water supply. This study evaluated whether compliance with environmental legislation aimed at protecting the Atlantic Forest is sufficient to minimize the negative effects of urban pressure on the conservation of biodiversity in the water source area of the Billings reservoir in the municipality of Diadema. To assess the effectiveness of environmental legislation, we created a current land use and land cover map as well as maps for an expected legal scenario and evaluated both using landscape metrics. Our findings indicate that forest resource availability in the area is critical but can be improved by compliance with legal obligations, which have complementary effects and the potential to promote less fragmented landscapes. On the other hand, they do not prevent the tendency of fragmentation caused by the surrounding urban matrix, which can reduce the positive effect of the legal compliance on forest conservation in cases of consolidated urban areas.

1. Introduction Historically, large urban centres, such as the São Paulo Metropolitan Region (SPMR), grow in a disorderly manner from the central areas to the outskirts of cities (Jacobi, 2000). Real estate speculation in central districts forces low-income populations to occupy peripheral areas devoid of public services, often illegally (Noguez and Hartmann, 2005) and in environmentally sensitive sites, such as the water source areas used for the public water supply of the urban centres. These settlements can generate several environmental problems, such as domestic sewage discharge and silting and pollution of rivers by garbage and debris (Jacobi, 2000). Studies show that one of the major issues caused by irregular settlements is the clearing of vegetation (Atmiş et al., 2007; Weber and Puissant, 2003), which is known to protect water sources and, consequently, water production capacity (Lima and Zakia, 2000). Vegetation cover protects the soil against erosion, promotes infiltration of rainwater into the soil and reduces runoff, which in turn avoids the silting of rivers and reservoirs, ensures the recharge of water sources and aquifers, and helps regulate water flow during periods of flood and drought (Liu, 2015; Neary et al., 2009). In addition, riparian forests filter chemical pollutants and support the maintenance of favourable conditions for aquatic biodiversity (Neary et al., 2009).

Therefore, the environmental conservation status of a water source area is directly associated with the quantity and quality of the remaining vegetation cover (Biao et al., 2010). Thus, several legal guidelines were enacted in Brazil to protect and restore forest remnants, such as the Forest Code (Brasil, 1965), which was recently replaced by the Native Vegetation Protection Law (Brasil, 2012); the Atlantic Forest Law (Brasil, 2006); and other legal provisions, such as the state law that determines the Protection and Restoration of the Water Source Area of the Billings Reservoir in the SPMR (São Paulo, 2009) and the Municipal Master Plan of Land Use and Zoning Map. Nonetheless, noncompliance and lack of enforcement (Alvim et al., 2015, 2008) is widespread, which is a problem aggravated in large urban centres by the increasing need for water supply combined with the degradation of water resources. The geographic information system (GIS) has increasingly been used in the construction of legal scenarios of environmental protection to assess compliance with legal guidelines and their effects on biodiversity conservation (Hardt et al., 2013a; Payés et al., 2013; Souza et al., 2014). These effects can be evaluated under the conceptual premise of landscape ecology, which seeks to understand the relationships between landscape structural patterns and their ecological processes (Turner, 2003; Turner and Gardner, 2015). This assessment can be

Corresponding author. E-mail addresses: [email protected] (T.M. Issii), [email protected] (A.C. Romero), [email protected] (E.F.L. Pereira-Silva), [email protected] (M.R. Attanasio), [email protected] (E. Hardt). ⁎

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.landusepol.2019.104366 Received 30 May 2019; Received in revised form 10 November 2019; Accepted 11 November 2019 0264-8377/ © 2019 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Please cite this article as: Thais M. Issii, et al., Land Use Policy, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.landusepol.2019.104366

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carried out by applying landscape metrics or indices, which are structural measures often used in environmental planning to compare spatiotemporal changes and to select conservation scenarios (Hardt et al., 2014; McGarigal and Marks, 1995). With this approach, forest quality can be evaluated based on successional stage and structural measures, such as size, shape, and fragment isolation, and the level of influence and pressure of neighbouring relationships between the forest surroundings and human activities (Hardt et al., 2013a, 2014; Zeng and Wu, 2005). In this sense, the present study used principles of landscape ecology to assess whether compliance with the environmental legislation protecting Atlantic Forest areas is sufficient to mitigate the negative effects of urban pressure on the conservation of biodiversity in the water source area of the Billings Reservoir in the municipality of Diadema. This assessment provides a tool for city planners and decision makers to analyse and compare the impacts of laws on conservation as a way of predicting their effects.

second most densely populated area in Brazil (IBGE, 2010) but also includes important remnants of dense ombrophilous forest from the Atlantic Forest Biome (São Paulo, 2010). As a result, several forest protection regulations at the different governmental levels (federal, state and municipal) affect the area. 2.2. Creation of the legal scenario The legal scenario including all protected areas of forest and vegetation cover in the study area was constructed in ArcGIS® following this sequence of steps: i) survey of the legal environmental protections affecting the area; ii) assessment of each law protection criteria for vegetation cover; iii) creation of a current land use and land cover map; iv) spatialization of each single law in protected vegetation cover maps; v) overlapping of the maps for each individual law on a final map of vegetation cover protection; vi) the creation of the expected legal scenario and adding to the vegetation cover protection map (step v) the current land use and land cover (step iii) in areas with no legal protection. The first step (step i) of the survey of the area affected by environmental legislation consisted of digital searches of laws and decrees in official governance portals at the federal, state, and municipal levels. We identified four main legal protections (Table 1– columns 1 and 2) and a second step (step ii) organized all criteria for forest and vegetation cover maintenance by assessing each protection (Table 1 – column 3). The creation of the current land use and land cover map (step iii) was done in ArcGIS® by visual interpretation of aerial orthophotos from 2011 that had a spatial resolution of 1 m and a scale of 1: 25,000 and that were provided by the municipality of Diadema (PMD). This map was obtained based on the identification of 12 types of land use and land cover characteristics of the study area and is presented in detail in Table 2. Establishing the spatialization criteria for each legal protection (step

2. Materials and methods The assessment of compliance with the environmental legislation aimed at forest protection involved the construction of a GIS-based legal scenario on the spatialization and overlapping of expected vegetation cover under a set of legal protections. 2.1. Study area The study was conducted in southern Diadema, a municipality in Southeastern Brazil, in the water source area of the Billings reservoir, which is the largest water reservoir in the SPMR. The boundaries of the reservoir were defined in ArcGIS® 10.3 based on the municipal limits and water dividers; the total area was 729 ha and there were 12 microbasin tributaries (Fig. 1). This is a highly urbanized area and is the

Fig. 1. Location of the study area in the municipality of Diadema (SP). Source layers: Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics - IBGE; Municipality of Diadema – PMD. 2

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Table 1 Criteria for the legal protection and spatialization of forest and vegetation cover affecting the water source area of the Billings reservoir in Diadema (SP). YEAR

LEGAL PROTECTION

2006

Atlantic Forest Law (Brasil, 2006) 1art. 31 §2º; 2 (Diadema, 2008)

2008

CRITERIA OF FOREST AND VEGETATION COVER PROTECTION

Municipal Master Plan of Diadema (Diadema, 2008) 3Table 1 – Urbanistic parameters; 4art. 68 §1º II; 5art. 10 V

2009

APRM-B (São Paulo, 2009) 6art. 18, III; 7 Table II - Urbanistic parameters; 8art. 4º X; 9 art. 21 IV; 10art. 21 V

2012

Native Vegetation Protection Law (Brasil, 2012) 11art. 4º I, IV, V, IX e XI; 12art. 62; 13 art. 8º §1º; art. 65; art. 3º VIII e IX; 14 (Diadema, 2008) art. 38

CRITERIA OF SPATIALIZATION

of at least 50% of the total area covered • Maintenance by forest in the intermediate stages of regeneration for urban areas delimited after the effective date of the law (2006)1

of vegetation of environmental interest • Maintenance (VIA) and urban trees (ARB) in a % variable with the

• • •

zoning of the area3 Maintenance of a no-construction area of 3 m along river channels4 Maintenance of the forest in a 50 m horizontal range from the maximum Billings reservoir (quota 747 m)6 Maintenance of the vegetal area index (IAV) in % variable with areas of directed occupation (AOD)7

of the following areas of permanent • Protection preservation (APP): water bodies (width 10 m) • 3050 mm along around springs and perennial water sources • Hillsides declivity over 100% • Marginal with between the normal operative • maximumstrip level and maximum maximorum quota in 11

11

11

reservoirs created before 200112

around marshes and their margins • 501/3mlarger and mountains (height > 100 m • and declivityof hills > 25º)

✓ Elaboration of a forest map of intermediate to advanced stage forests based on orthophotos from 2002 (the closest year to the effective date of the law); ✓ Use of urban lots subdivision² data for analysis of compliance and inclusion of areas ✓ Use of the urban zoning of the municipality for the analysis of compliance and inclusion of missing areas, considering as compliance the cover types: VIA = forest5; ARB = grouping of trees; and No-construction area = human-modified field4 ✓ Use of the data on the Billings sub-areas and subdivision of lots for analysis of compliance and inclusion of missing areas, which are variable with AOD, considering as compliance the cover types: IAV = forest, forest plantation, and grouping of trees In case of missing areas, new areas of IAV were included as forest ✓ Elaboration of the digital terr ain model and slope map based on contour line map; ✓ Use of the hydrographic map and the reservoir limits to spatialize the variable range of APP; ✓ The cases of noncompliance in the APP excluded areas of public utility13 (any type of APP) and social interest14 (except water source APP)13, except for risk areas14

11

11

iv) was the longest phase and involved some general rules for the interpretation of the legislation to determine the protected areas (Table 1 – column 4). As a general rule, in cases in which the law does not have a location criterion for vegetation cover maintenance, the protected areas included existing forest fragments identified by the current land use and land cover map (step iii). In addition, if the existing forest was not enough for legal compliance, whenever possible, the inclusion of more protected area was defined by expansion in the size of the existing forest fragments. Despite the fact that this strategy is not included in the legal protection, this was considered a sensible measure that could be taken into account by government managers since the increase in size

can contribute to reducing the edge effect and consequently to the conservation and quality of forests and local biodiversity (Lang and Blaschke, 2009). In these cases, the land type choice to be converted into a protected area, which was chosen based on the ease of natural restoration and/or colonization, was determined based on the following order of priority: early secondary forest, grouping of trees, forest plantation with understory, forest plantation, human-modified field, green residential areas, urban medium-density, urban high-density, and isolated buildings. In cases of undefined or unclear criteria for protected areas in the law, another general rule established during the spatialization (step iv) was to standardize the choice for the most restrictive

Table 2 Description of the land use and land cover types used in the mapping of the municipality of Diadema (SP). Land use and land cover type

Description

advanced forest

Secondary Atlantic Forest fragments with continuous canopy (darker-coloured canopy)

early forest

Secondary Atlantic Forest fragments with discontinuous canopy (lighter-coloured canopy)

forest plantation with understory

Old stands of exotic species of Eucalyptus spp. or Pinus spp. with regeneration of native vegetation in the understory

forest plantation

Stands of densely or sparsely planted exotic species of Eucalyptus spp. or Pinus spp. (forestry)

grouping of trees

Tree cluster of at least 3 individuals within a 40 m area

human-modified field

Open areas of anthropic use with occasional buildings and isolated trees. Characterized by gardens, bare soil, agricultural and forest plantation soil preparation, plots devoid of buildings and abandoned areas

green residential area

Areas with low densities of residential buildings and presence of trees and gardens

urban medium density

Areas with moderate density of buildings with isolated trees

urban high density

Areas with high density of buildings with access to paved or unpaved roads

isolated buildings

Urban cluster of at least 3 buildings within 40 m or buildings ≥ 30 m in length

road net

Paved and unpaved roads, avenues, and streets. Does not include access roads from the urban high density land cover type

dam or lake

Reservoir and flooding areas

3

4

FRAGSTATS

ArcGIS®

FRAGSTATS

ArcGIS®

ArcGIS® V-LATE extension ArcGIS®

ED =

m k = 1 eik

n k = 1 sik

Boundary frequency/Edge Segments Density - ESD Boundary Length/Edge Density - ED Trends to forest fragmentation

ESD =

aijs n s = 1 hijs ²

PROX =

n (CA . CS . CSS ) i i i i=1 TA . CSmax . CSSmax

ENN = hij

Euclidean Nearest Neighbour distance - ENN Proximity Index - PROX

FSS =

ORA = Optimal resource availability - ORA

n (CA ) i i=1 FA FA adv FA

Forest successional stage - FSS

FS =

FSh = Forest shape - FSh

ArcGIS®

ArcGIS®

Patch forest area (Ai) weighted by the coefficient of patch size (CSi), ranging from 0 to 4: 0 (≤ 0,01 ha), 1 (≤ 10 ha), 2 (10 – 50 ha), 3 (50 – 100 ha) e 4 (≥ 100 ha), in relation to the maximum size (CSmax); adapted from Hardt et al. (2013a) Proportion of the forest core area (CAi), considering a 70 m edge width based on data obtained by Hardt et al. (2013b) for the Atlantic Forest fragments with urban boundary Proportion of the forest in the most advanced successional stage (FAadv), identified during the mapping based on differences in roughness among aerial photographs Forest quality, weighted by core area (CAi), size coefficient (CSi) and successional stages (CSSi = 1 for initial stage and 2 for medium/ advanced stage) in relation to the maximum potential in the total area (TA) Measure of the focal patchi isolation by the shortest straight-line distance (hij) to the nearest neighbouring patchj of the same type, based on patch edge-to-edge distance Sum of the forest patch area (aijs) divided by the nearest edge-to-edge distance squared (hijs) between the focal patch and all patches of the corresponding patch type whose edges are within 500 m from the focal patch Number of boundary segments (sik) between forest patchi and human-related neighbouring patchk (ZENG; WU, 2005), calculated by the sum for boundary type Cumulative total boundaries length (ED) between the forest patchi and human-related neighbouring patchk, calculated in metres by the sum for boundary type (MCGARIGAL; MARKS, 1995; ZENG; WU, 2005)

Description

Forest cover area (FA) per total landscape area (TA)

FA TA n (A . CS ) i i=1 i FA . CSmax

FR =

Forest size - FS

Landscape connectivity (MCGARIGAL; MARKS, 1995)

Urban uses predominate in the current landscape (2011), with a concentration of moderately and highly dense urban areas in the centre of the municipality, which is located to the north of the study area. The land use with the lowest density, green residential area, is found only near the water source area of the Billings reservoir (Fig. 2A). The legal scenario predicts a forest area twice as large in the early and advanced stages of succession (272 ha) than that currently observed (130 ha in 2011). If the legislation was enforced, forest size would increase in the southwest portion of the study area near the Billings reservoir (Fig. 2B). The Native Vegetation Protection Law protects the most forest area (205 ha), followed by the Protection and Recovery Area of Billings Water Source - APRM-B and the Diadema

Forest ratio - FR

3. Results

Forest resource availability variable from 0 to 1

The effectiveness of the environmental legislation for forest protection was assessed using a set of landscape metrics that included (i) analysis of the forest optimal resource availability (ORA), which is an index of forest quality supported by interpretations of forest ratio (FR), forest size (FS) and forest shape (FSh); ii) analysis of the connectivity of the landscape based on the Euclidean distance measures of the nearest neighbour (ENN) and proximity index (PROX); and iii) analysis of the fragmentation trend based on boundary frequency or the proportion of segments of edge (ESD) to boundary length or total edge (ED) among the different types of anthropogenic uses and the forest (Table 3). The metrics of item i (FR, FS, FSh and ORA) and the boundary frequency (ESD) of item iii were obtained using ArcGIS®. The remaining metrics described in item ii (ENN and PROX) and item iii (ED) were calculated with FRAGSTATS software.

Formula

2.3. Landscape indices and metrics to assess biodiversity conservation

Metric

Table 3 The evaluation criteria of the potential forest conservation of the water source area of the Billings Reservoir, Diadema-SP. Modified from Hardt et al. (2013a, 2014) apud Romero et al. (2018).

Software

criterion regarding land use and land cover, which represents the option with greatest conservation capacity. During the spatialization of the protection laws, each law used a set of secondary materials and some ArcGIS® tools, which are described in Issii and Hardt (2019) with technical detail about the geospatial procedures in GIS. Since the entirety of the Diadema municipality is considered an urban zone (Diadema, 2008) and rural properties are rare and do not have geospatial records, the spatialization of this law did not include the maintenance of legal reserves for properties with rural use (Brasil, 2012 art. 12 II and art. 19). The assessment of insufficient vegetation cover was carried out using the Intersect tool with the aid of the environmental zoning and subdivision (lots) maps of the municipality in addition to the subdivisions of the water source areas for the Billings reservoir (São Paulo, 2009). The integration of all individual laws in a final map of vegetation cover protection (step v) was performed using the Merge tool and applying the same general rule of maintenance of the most restrictive land cover criterion regarding protection. The total legal scenario was only created in the last step (step vi) using the Merge and Dissolve tools to overlap the total vegetation cover protection (step v) with the current land use and land cover map (step iii). The analysis of legal compliance in the maintenance of forests or vegetation cover was performed using the Tabulate Area tool between the current land use and land cover map (step iii) and each legal protection (step iv) and with the total vegetation cover protection (step v). The cases of noncompliance with the Native Vegetation Protection Law excluded areas of public use and social interest except for risk areas according to maps provided by PMD, which included the implementation of public infrastructure destined to paved roads, sports fields, leisure areas, and outdoor educational and cultural activity areas; the regularization of human settlements predominantly occupied by lowincome population; and the installation of water and effluent treatment facilities (Brasil, 2012 art. 3°, IX c–e).

FRAGSTATS

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Fig. 2. Land use and land cover maps in the water source area of the Billings reservoir in the municipality of Diadema (SP). A - current map (2011). B – legal scenario (combination between A and C). C – vegetation cover protection: Atlantic Forest Law, Diadema Master Plan, Protection and Recovery Area of Billings Water Source (APRM-B), Native Vegetation Protection Law and; and the total vegetation protection by overlapping all laws.

Master Plan, each protecting 186 ha (Fig. 2C). The actual landscape of 2011 complies with only 36 % of the expected legal scenario. The most noncompliant land uses are humanmodified fields (28 %) and forest plantations (24 %), followed by urban uses (20 %). In this evaluation, the state (Protection and Recovery Area of Billings Water Source - APRM-B) and municipal (Master Plan of Diadema) laws have similar compliance rates (52 %), both of which are lower than the Atlantic Forest Law (75 %) and higher than the new Native Vegetation Protection Law (48 %) (Fig. 3), which has the protection of the areas of permanent preservation (APP) as its main goal. Water courses are the most important type of APP (59 %) in the protection of forests in the study area, followed by water reservoirs (19 %). The protected areas as hilltops and ridge lines were not identified in the study area, considering the law criteria for hilltop (height > 100 m and declivity > 25°). The ORA predicted by the legal scenario is four times larger than that currently observed (2011: 0.005; legal: 0.02) and is mainly influenced by the increase in FR (2011: 0.18, legal: 0.37) and FS (2011: 0.32, legal: 0.80). However, in both landscapes, the low ORA values are associated with low FSh (2011: 0.06, legal: 0.05), indicating irregular and elongated forest fragments (Fig. 4). The separate legal protections do not promote a different ORA from the current landscape (0.005),

with the exception of the slightly larger DRO for APRM-B (0.007) that is mainly influenced by the increase in FR (0.47). Considering all areas, the legal scenario proposes a landscape that would be slightly more contiguous than the one currently observed (2011), with a lower median of ENN and higher of PROX (Fig. 5 – median data). On the other hand, the comparison between the mean of ENN and PROX shows that the legal scenario proposes some regions with forest patches that would be considerably more connected than they are in the current reality (Fig. 5 – mean data). In these cases, there is a clear multiplicative effect of the complementarity of laws in some regions of the legal scenario with an extremely high mean of PROX (Fig. 5B – mean data). The APRM-B Law is the legal protection that most contributes to the proposed connectivity, unlike the Atlantic Forest Law, which has the lowest indices. The neighbourhood relationships with the current forest fragments observed in 2011 are mostly with human-modified fields (ED 60 %, ESD 43 %) and roads net (ED 12 %, ESD 18 %). Compliance with the legal requirements decreases the intensity of human-modified fields (ED 40 %, ESD 39 %) but further increases the length of the border with roads net (ED 17 %). In addition, it increases the border of the forest with highly dense urban areas (ED 16 %, ESD 19 %), which was not frequently observed in 2011 (ED 4 %, ESD 6 %), especially in the Native 5

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Fig. 3. Percentages of the current land use and land cover (2011) in protected areas that should be covered by forest considering each environmental protection law and the combination of all laws (legal scenario) for the water source area of the Billings reservoir in Diadema (SP).

Vegetation Protection Law (Fig. 6).

land uses. This situation could be positive if we considered that humanmodified fields could be used to facilitate passive environmental restoration actions, especially if the disturbance agents, such as exotic herbaceous species, are controlled to promote natural regeneration without intervention (Benayas et al., 2009). Regarding the environmental regulations in effect in the area, compliance was higher with the 2006 Atlantic Forest Law, possibly because the urban area required for forest maintenance (50 % of the existing forest) is smaller than that required in rural areas. In addition, there were few forest fragments in the advanced stages of regeneration in Diadema when this law took effect (2006). Contrary to expectations, compliance with municipal and state regulations was greater than with the federal Native Vegetation Protection Law. Taking into account the hierarchy of governance levels, in which local protections cannot override federal law, it is expected that city and state laws would have more restrictive policies and therefore be more beneficial to environmental conservation. It should be emphasized that the areas protected by the Native Vegetation Protection Law that could potentially be regenerated may

4. Discussion Brazilian highly dense urban areas, which are the typical pattern in the Diadema municipality, are generally inhabited by low-income populations living in conditions of social, economic and environmental vulnerability (Noguez and Hartmann, 2005). The absence of this type of urban land use surrounding the Billings reservoir can be explained by the compliance with the zoning map proposed by the Municipal Master Plan and the APRM-B, but it can also be a consequence of the historical use of the area, which has been occupied by vacation homes for more than 50 years, possibly limiting illegal settlements towards the water source area. In general, compliance with the current environmental laws is very low, and in most cases, the protected areas are currently covered by human-modified fields (mostly gardens and abandoned areas). Considering the density of the Diadema urban areas, this result was contrary to the initial expectation of the lowest compliance by urban

Fig. 4. Spatial representation of the optimal resource availability (ORA) of each forest patch classified in a conservation gradient for the current map of the 2011 cover (A) and the legal scenario (B) in the water source area of the Billings reservoir in Diadema (SP). The figure includes landscape values for ORA and forest size (FS), shape (FSh) and rate (FR). 6

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Fig. 5. Measures of the isolation between forests in the water source area of the Billings reservoir in Diadema (SP). A - Euclidean distance from the nearest neighbour – ENN; B - Proximity index - PROX (B).

differ from the areas identified in this study because rural properties in urban areas (although rare) were not included. These properties must maintain a legal reserve at the same time as the possibility of exemption from the recovery of part of the APP variable with the size of the fiscal module and the record of the consolidated rural use (Brasil, 2012 art. 3°). Although the Native Vegetation Protection Law of 2012 (Brasil, 2012) has been the most restrictive to anthropogenic use and with the least levels of compliance in the study area, the environmental protection parameters are less restrictive than those in the former Forest Code of 1965 (Brasil, 1965), a polemic subject that has been in the centre of recent debates in the Federal Supreme Court and scientific research (Sparovek et al., 2012; Zanatta et al., 2016). The lack of protections for hilltops and ridge lines in the area may be an effect of the changes in this law (Francelino and Silva, 2014). The flexible uses in the APP in the consolidated areas given by the new law can also represent a significant change in the obligation to maintain the native vegetation. In the case of urban areas like Diadema, land regularization may resolve illegal settlements in the APP (Brasil, 2012 art. 3°), in addition to the issues of public utility and social interest (art. 8°) included in this study, when not inserted in areas of risk (art. 64 § 2°). In comparison with the observed forest area on the current map, the

legal scenario indicates an increase in forest area, especially surrounding the Billings reservoir. The expansion of the vegetation cover at the water source area can be beneficial to the reservoir by maintaining water production capacity (Lima and Zakia, 2000), which contributes to recharging the aquifer. In addition, forested areas provide important benefits, such as pollutant filtration, soil protection, nutrient retention, biodiversity conservation, and other ecosystem services (Elias et al., 2016; Tambosi et al., 2015; Tundisi and MatsumuraTundisi, 2010). On the other hand, the replacement of vegetation cover by housing areas that lack infrastructure and sanitary conditions, which is typical of irregular occupations, causes serious environmental damage, such as water quality reduction (Noguez and Hartmann, 2005; Wendell et al., 2016). However, the main focus of our study was to examine whether the forest fragments protected by environmental legislation would be of good quality for biodiversity conservation. The improvement in the optimal resource availability in the expected legal scenario shows that the protected forest fragments would be larger than the currently observed forest fragments, but with low values when compared to the maximum potential of the evaluated indices. The legal protections are not able to reduce the effects of shape by predicting elongated and 7

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Fig. 6. The tendency of forest fragmentation evaluated using boundary frequency - ESD (A) and boundary length - ED (B) in the water source area of the Billings reservoir in Diadema (SP).

irregular fragments, which result in a smaller core area, restricting the local biodiversity of species that are unique to the interior of the forest and at the same time increasing the occurrence of opportunistic, generalist, and invasive species (Pereira-Silva et al., 2007; Turner, 2003; Turner and Gardner, 2015). Another factor determining forest quality is the structural or functional connectivity among fragments (Liu et al., 2014). The current isolation of forest fragments in the municipality of Diadema may compromise the survival of local populations of native species. This can cause a reduction in gene flow and limit the search for resources and, as a consequence, reduce biodiversity and species abundance (Lang and Blaschke, 2009; Qi et al., 2017). In these situations, the interchange among habitats usually becomes gradually more difficult, either because of the distances or the presence of barriers between the fragments (Qi et al., 2017), although the latter was not examined in our study. Therefore, small differences in the connectivity between the currently observed and the expected legal scenario may have been due to the sensitivity of the structural connectivity metrics used in this study. The application of the landscape measures of functional connectivity to a particular species or biological group is known to make this analysis more realistic (Qi et al., 2017). Although the legal scenario can contribute to the conservation of local biodiversity, compliance with the laws would not be enough to change neighbourhood relationships with the forest. Pressure from urban areas and access roads in legally protected forests would be even more intense than the currently observed pressures, which would be a warning sign to local officials, as this type of neighbourhood can have negative effects on the forest fragments. These anthropogenic neighbourhoods intensify the edge effect on the forest (Hardt et al., 2013b; Santos-Barrera and Nicolás Urbina-Cardona, 2011), and usually act as driving forces for change (Antrop, 2005) and as indicators of future fragmentation trends (Zeng and Wu, 2005).

The analyses show different contributions from the various legal protection to addressing biodiversity conservation. The Native Vegetation Protection Law is the largest contributor in terms of native forest cover area, although it also predicts the highest boundary pressure between the forests and urban high-density areas. In terms of the optimal resource availability and landscape connectivity, the largest efficiency is provided by the Protection and Recovery Area of Billings Water Source - APRM-B (São Paulo, 2009), even though its effects are not as significant as the complementary effect of the entire law set. The federal Native Vegetation Protection Law (Brasil, 2012) provides many forms of forest protection (around rivers, springs, reservoirs, etc.), while the APRM-B prioritizes more restrictive use of the reservoir margins (50 m protection when compared to 30 m by federal law). The Atlantic Forest Law is concerned with establishing a moratorium on forest removal, while the municipal law provides land-use zoning for urban development in conjunction with the protection of vegetation and the social interest. Our results indicate that the integration between these law incumbencies is what enables a complementary effect on local biodiversity conservation. 5. Conclusion Full compliance with environmental laws can improve the quantity and quality of current forest fragments, especially because of the complementary effects of the laws on biodiversity conservation. Thus, the expected legal scenario would promote a substantial increase in forest cover, especially near the water source area of the Billings reservoir in Diadema, and would contribute to soil protection and water maintenance of the water source area. Quality improvement is mainly associated with greater optimal resource availability and landscape connectivity but does not fulfil the requirements of optimum biodiversity conservation when compared to the maximum potential of the 8

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evaluated indices. In addition, the landscape predicted by the expected legal scenario does not seem to be sufficient to minimize the negative effects of urban pressure since it is not capable of changing the tendency of these land uses to cause fragmentation, reducing the legal expectation of biodiversity conservation in already consolidated urban areas. These findings can provide supplemental information for decision makers and public authorities to direct the most effective legal principles and objectives for forest conservation.

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