The Smoker’s Paradox Revisited

The Smoker’s Paradox Revisited

JACC: CARDIOVASCULAR INTERVENTIONS VOL. 12, NO. 19, 2019 ª 2019 BY THE AMERICAN COLLEGE OF CARDIOLOGY FOUNDATION PUBLISHED BY ELSEVIER The Smoker’s...

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JACC: CARDIOVASCULAR INTERVENTIONS

VOL. 12, NO. 19, 2019

ª 2019 BY THE AMERICAN COLLEGE OF CARDIOLOGY FOUNDATION PUBLISHED BY ELSEVIER

The Smoker’s Paradox Revisited A Patient-Level Pooled Analysis of 18 Randomized Controlled Trials Mayank Yadav, MD,a Gary S. Mintz, MD,b Philippe Généreux, MD,b,c,d Mengdan Liu, MS,b Thomas McAndrew, PHD,b Björn Redfors, MD, PHD,b Mahesh V. Madhavan, MD,e Martin B. Leon, MD,b,e Gregg W. Stone, MDb,e

ABSTRACT OBJECTIVES This study examined the smoker’s paradox using patient-level data from 18 prospective, randomized trials of patients undergoing percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) with stent implantation. BACKGROUND Studies on the effects of smoking and outcomes among patients undergoing PCI have reported conflicting results. METHODS Data from the RAVEL, E-SIRIUS, SIRIUS, C-SIRIUS, TAXUS IV and V, ENDEAVOR II to IV, SPIRIT II to IV, HORIZONS-AMI, COMPARE I and II, PLATINUM, and TWENTE I and II randomized trials were pooled. Patients were stratified by smoking status at time of enrollment. The 1- and 5-year ischemic outcomes were compared. RESULTS Among 24,354 patients with available data on smoking status, 6,722 (27.6%) were current smokers. Smokers were younger and less likely to have diabetes mellitus; hypertension; hyperlipidemia; or prior myocardial infarction (MI), PCI, or coronary artery bypass grafting. Angiographically, smokers had longer lesions, more complex lesions, and more occlusions, but were less likely to have moderate or severe calcification or tortuosity. At 5 years, smokers had significantly higher rates of MI (7.8% vs. 5.6%; p < 0.0001) and definite or probable stent thrombosis (3.5% vs. 1.8%; p < 0.0001); however, there were no differences in the rates of death, cardiac death, target lesion revascularization, or composite endpoints (cardiac death, target vessel MI, or ischemic target lesion revascularization). After multivariable adjustment for potential confounders, smoking was a strong independent predictor of death (hazard ratio [HR]: 1.86; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.63 to 2.12; p < 0.0001), cardiac death (HR: 1.68; 95% CI: 1.38 to 2.05; p < 0.0001), MI (HR: 1.38; 95% CI: 1.20 to 1.58; p < 0.0001), stent thrombosis (HR: 1.60; 95% CI: 1.28 to 1.99; p < 0.0001), and target lesion failure (HR: 1.17; 95% CI: 1.05 to 1.30; p ¼ 0.005). CONCLUSIONS The present large, patient-level, pooled analysis with 5-year follow-up clearly demonstrates smoking to be an important predictor of adverse outcomes after PCI. (J Am Coll Cardiol Intv 2019;12:1941–50) © 2019 by the American College of Cardiology Foundation.

S

moking is one of the strongest modifiable risk

after percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI), a

factors for coronary artery disease (CAD). Thir-

phenomenon often termed the smoker’s paradox.

ty percent of CAD deaths in United States are

Although most of these studies were completed in

attributed to smoking, with the risk being dose

the thrombolytic therapy and balloon angioplasty

related (1,2). Smoking cessation constitutes the single

eras, and even though it has been 3 decades since

most important preventive measure for CAD (1). Para-

the first description of this paradox (3–9), the reasons

doxically, many (3–9), but not all (10–13), studies in

underlying this enigma remain unclear.

the past 3 decades have reported that smoking is associated with better short- and long-term outcomes

To further investigate the relationship between smoking

status

and

5-year

outcomes

in

the

From the aDepartment of Medicine, Division of Cardiology, Bronx Lebanon Hospital Center, New York, New York; bClinical Trials Center, Cardiovascular Research Foundation, New York, New York; cGagnon Cardiovascular Institute, Morristown Medical Center, Morristown, New Jersey; dHôpital du Sacré-Coeur de Montréal, Montréal, Canada; and the eDepartment of Medicine, Division of Cardiology, NewYork-Presbyterian Hospital/Columbia University Medical Center, New York, New York. This investigatorsponsored study was funded by Abbott Vascular (Santa Clara, California). The authors have reported that they have no relationships relevant to the contents of this paper to disclose. Manuscript received February 21, 2019; revised manuscript received May 16, 2019, accepted June 11, 2019.

ISSN 1936-8798/$36.00

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jcin.2019.06.034

Yadav et al.

1942

JACC: CARDIOVASCULAR INTERVENTIONS VOL. 12, NO. 19, 2019 OCTOBER 14, 2019:1941–50

Smoker’s Paradox

ABBREVIATIONS

contemporary era of PCI with stent implan-

AND ACRONYMS

tation, we examined this issue from an indi-

Research Consortium definition) (32), and target

vidual patient data (IPD) pooled analysis of

lesion failure (TLF) (a composite of cardiac death,

18 large-scale, multicenter, prospective, ran-

target vessel MI, and ischemic TLR). If TLF was not

domized controlled trials.

reported in the original trials, it was derived based on

ACS = acute coronary syndromes

CAD = coronary artery disease

individual components. TLF was evaluated in this

SEE PAGE 1951

CABG = coronary artery bypass

manner in 6 studies (N ¼ 6,808). Overall, TLF was

grafting

METHODS

IPD = individual patient data

definite or probable stent thrombosis (ST) (Academic

available in 12 of the 18 studies (19,349 of 24,354 patients) included in the present analysis. Survival time

MI = myocardial infarction PCI = percutaneous coronary intervention

STUDY PROTOCOL. The study population

was calculated as days from procedure date to first-

was drawn from an IPD pooled database

event date.

consisting of 18 multicenter, prospective,

ST = stent thrombosis

single- or double-blinded, randomized clin-

TLF = target lesion failure

ical trials with a follow-up period up to 5

TLR = target lesion

years. The study protocols and trial designs

revascularization

have been previously described in detail and are summarized in Table 1 (14–31). The main purpose of the present study was to evaluate the impact of smoking on 1- and 5-year outcomes among patients undergoing PCI in the stent era. Current smoking status at baseline was used to stratify the patient population.

STATISTICAL METHODS. Continuous data are pre-

sented as mean  SD and were compared using the Student’s t-test or Wilcoxon rank sum test, as appropriate. Categorical variables are presented as frequency and percent and were compared using the chi-square test or the Fisher exact test (when any cell’s expected frequency fell below 5 counts). Clinical endpoints were presented using Kaplan-Meier estimates and compared using the log-rank test. Data were also analyzed stratified by study (CochranMantel-Haenszel test for categorical variables, 2-way

STUDY ENDPOINTS. The primary (adjudicated) study

analysis of variance for continuous variables).

endpoints were death, cardiac death, myocardial

A Cox proportional hazards model associated

infarction (MI), target lesion revascularization (TLR),

smoking with 5-year clinical endpoints adjusting for

T A B L E 1 Characteristics of Multicenter Randomized Trials Included in the Patient-Level Pooled Analysis

Trial (Ref. #)

RAVEL (14) E-SIRUS (15)

n

Study Cohort

Comparison

Randomization

Antithrombotic

238

Stable/unstable angina, SI

SES vs. BMS

1:1

UFH

Primary Endpoint

In-stent late luminal loss

352

Stable/unstable angina, SI

SES vs. BMS

1:1

UFH

In-stent minimum lumen diameter

1,058

Stable/unstable angina, SI

SES vs. BMS

1:1

UFH

Cardiac death/MI/TVR

C-SIRUS (17)

100

Stable/unstable angina, SI

SES vs. BMS

1:1

UFH

In-stent minimum lumen diameter

TAXUS IV (18)

1,314

Stable/unstable angina, SI

PES vs. BMS

1:1

UFH

Ischemia-driven TVR

TAXUS V (19)

1,156

Stable/unstable angina, SI

PES vs. BMS

1:1

UFH

Ischemia-driven TVR

ENDEAVOR II (20)

1,197

Stable/unstable angina, SI

ZES vs. BMS

1:1

UFH

Cardiac death/MI/TVR

ENDEAVOR III (21)

436

Stable/unstable angina

ZES vs. SES

3:1

UFH

SPIRIT II (22)

300

Stable/unstable angina, SI

EES vs. PES

3:1

UFH, BIV

SPIRIT III (23)

1,002

Stable/unstable angina, SI

EES vs. PES

2:1

UFH, BIV

HORIZONS-AMI (24)

3,006

STEMI

PES vs. BMS

3:1

UFHþGPI, BIV

COMPARE (25)

1,800

All-comers

EES vs. PES

1:1

UFH

ENDEAVOR IV (26)

1,548

Stable/unstable angina, SI

ZES vs. PES

1:1

UFH, BIV

Cardiac death/MI/TVR

SPIRIT IV (27)

3,687

Stable/unstable angina, SI

EES vs. PES

2:1

UFH, BIV

Cardiac death/target vessel MI, or TVR

TWENTE (28)

1,391

All-comers*

ZES vs. CoCr-EES

1:1

UFH

Cardiac death/target vessel MI/TVR

COMPARE II (29)

2,707

All-comers

BES vs. EES

2:1

UFH

Cardiac death/nonfatal MI, TVR

PLATINUM (30)

1,530

Stable/unstable angina, SI

PtCr-EES vs. CoCr-EES

1:1

UFH, LMWH, BIV

TWENTE II (31)

2,371

All-comers

CoCr-ZES vs. PtCr-EES

1:1

UFH

SIRIUS (16)

In-segment late lumen loss In-stent late luminal loss In-segment late lumen loss TVR and MACE (death/MI/stroke/ST) Death/MI/TVR

Cardiac death†/MI/†TVR Cardiac death/target vessel MI/TVR

*Except STEMI within 48 h. †All events related to target vessel. BIV ¼ bivalirudin; BMS ¼ bare-metal stent; BES ¼ biolimus-eluting stent; CoCr-EES ¼ cobalt-chromium everolimus-eluting stent; EES ¼ everolimus-eluting stent; GPI ¼ glycoprotein IIb/IIIa inhibitor; LMWH ¼ low-molecular-weight heparin; NSTE-ACS ¼ non–ST-segment elevation acute coronary syndrome; PES ¼ paclitaxel-eluting stent; PtCr-EES ¼ platinum-chromium everolimus-eluting stent; SES ¼ sirolimus-eluting stent; SI ¼ silent ischemia; ST ¼ stent thrombosis; STEMI ¼ ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction; TLR ¼ target lesion failure; TVR ¼ target vessel revascularization; UFH ¼ unfractionated heparin; ZES ¼ zotarolimus-eluting stent.

Yadav et al.

JACC: CARDIOVASCULAR INTERVENTIONS VOL. 12, NO. 19, 2019 OCTOBER 14, 2019:1941–50

Smoker’s Paradox

T A B L E 2 Baseline and Procedural Characteristics Stratified by Smoking Status

Smokers (n ¼ 6,722)

Nonsmokers (n ¼ 17,632)

p Value

56.5  9.9

65.1  10.3

<0.0001

5,056/6,722 (75.2)

12,426/17,632 (70.5)

<0.0001

28.2  5.2

29.2  5.4

<0.0001

1,183/6,719 (17.6)

4,605/17,623 (26.1)

<0.0001

Age, yrs Male Body mass index, kg/m2 Diabetes mellitus

330/6,719 (4.9)

1,337/17,623 (7.6)

<0.0001

3,629/6,715 (54.0)

11,942/17,610 (67.8)

<0.0001 <0.0001

Insulin treated Hypertension Hyperlipidemia

3,852/6,675 (57.7)

11,694/17,507 (66.8)

Prior myocardial infarction

1,499/6,683 (22.4)

3,976/17,483 (22.7)

0.60

Prior percutaneous coronary intervention

1,009/6,690 (15.1)

3,707/17,574 (21.1)

<0.0001

203/6,720 (3.0)

1,477/17,630 (8.4)

<0.0001

4,226/6,283 (67.3)

7,678/16,163 (47.5)

<0.0001

2,062/6,722 (30.7)

2,323/17,630 (13.2)

<0.0001

670/6,722 (10.0)

1,333/17,630 (7.6)

<0.0001

Unstable angina

1,494/6,283 (23.8)

4,022/16,163 (24.9)

0.08

Stable coronary artery disease

2,057/6,283 (32.7)

8,485/16,163 (52.5)

<0.0001

1,895/6,283 (30.2)

7,798/16,163 (48.2)

<0.0001

162/6,283 (2.6)

687/16,163 (4.3)

<0.0001

Prior coronary artery bypass grafting Acute coronary syndromes STEMI NSTE-ACS

Stable angina SI Lesion length, mm

17.4  10.8

16.9  11.2

0.006

ACC type C lesion

2,803/6,685 (41.9)

6,237/17,559 (35.5)

<0.0001

1,718/6,343 (27.1)

5,281/16,508 (32.0)

<0.0001

197/3,370 (5.8)

669/8,099 (8.3)

<0.0001

1,118/6,692 (16.7)

1,551/17,587 (8.8)

<0.0001

30.8  21.1

30.5  21.4

BMS

1,033/6,722 (15.4)

2,379/17,632 (13.5)

Drug-eluting stent

5,689/6,722 (84.6)

15,253/17,632 (86.5)

0.0002

First generation

2,370/6,722 (35.3)

5,331/17,632 (30.2)

<0.0001

Second generation

3,319/6,722 (49.4)

9,922/17,632 (56.3)

<0.0001

Calcification (moderate/severe) Tortuosity (moderate/severe) Any occlusions Total stent length

0.25 0.0002

Pre-procedure Reference vessel diameter, mm

2.83  0.86

2.73  0.58

<0.0001

Minimum lumen diameter, mm

0.70  0.49

0.76  0.44

<0.0001

Diameter stenosis, %

76.3  17.0

73.2  15.6

<0.0001

TIMI flow grade 0/1

1,533/6,689 (22.9)

2,333/17,574 (13.3)

<0.0001

Post-procedure Diameter stenosis, %

16.8  11.1

16.8  10.9

0.93

Minimum lumen diameter, mm

2.35  0.92

2.28  0.75

<0.0001

31/6,613 (0.5)

77/17,407 (0.4)

57.1  11.3

57.8  10.9

TIMI flow grade 0/1 Left ventricular ejection fraction, %

0.78 0.005

Values are mean  SD or n/N (%). ACC ¼ American College of Cardiology; TIMI ¼ Thrombolysis In Myocardial Infarction; other abbreviations as in Table 1.

age (10-year increments), sex, diabetes mellitus,

performed that accounted for possible confounders

insulin-treated diabetes, hypertension, hyperlipid-

by trial; these include the Cox proportional hazards

emia, prior PCI, prior coronary artery bypass grafting

model: 1) not including the study; 2) stratified by

(CABG) surgery, prior MI, acute coronary syndrome

study; 3) including study as a random effect; and 4)

(ACS) versus stable CAD, any moderate or severe

including the study as a covariate.

calcification, lesion length, stent generation, any occlusion, any American College of Cardiology class C

RESULTS

lesion, and study (as a random effect). All p values are 2-sided, and a p value < 0.05 was considered statis-

BASELINE PATIENT AND ANGIOGRAPHIC CHARAC-

tically

TERISTICS. Smoking status was available in 24,354 of

significant.

Sensitivity

analyses

were

1943

1944

Yadav et al.

JACC: CARDIOVASCULAR INTERVENTIONS VOL. 12, NO. 19, 2019 OCTOBER 14, 2019:1941–50

Smoker’s Paradox

American College of Cardiology type C lesions, as

T A B L E 3 Outcomes at 1 and 5 Years in Patients Stratified by

well as any occlusions, but were less likely to have

Smoking Status

moderate or severe calcification and tortuosity. Smokers (n ¼ 6,722)

Nonsmokers (n ¼ 17,632)

p Value

Death

111 (1.7)

290 (1.7)

0.95

to have pre-procedural Thrombolysis In Myocardial

Cardiac death

67 (1.0)

178 (1.0)

0.94

Infarction flow grade 0 or 1, but there was no sig-

Myocardial infarction

226 (3.4)

529 (3.0)

0.15

nificant difference in post-procedure TIMI flow

Target lesion revascularization

321 (5.8)

902 (6.5)

0.06

grade 0 or 1 between the 2 groups. On quantitative

<0.0001

Nevertheless, the total stent length was similar between the 2 groups. Smokers were also more likely

1-yr outcomes

Stent thrombosis (definite/probable) Target lesion failure*

117 (1.8)

148 (0.8)

282 (6.0)

1,042 (7.2)

430 196 450 589 211

1,251 583 892 1,446 275

0.006

5-yr outcomes Death Cardiac death Myocardial infarction Target lesion revascularization Stent thrombosis (definite/ probable) Target lesion failure*

(8.6) (3.9) (7.8) (12.0) (3.5)

(9.0) (4.1) (5.6) (11.4) (1.8)

0.59 0.44 <0.0001 0.45 <0.0001

coronary angiography, smokers were more likely to have a lower pre-procedure minimal lumen diameter and a larger post-procedure minimal lumen diameter. CUMULATIVE 1-YEAR AND 5-YEAR OUTCOMES. Median

follow-up was 3.9 (interquartile range: 3.0 to 5.0) 601 (14.8)

1,892 (14.4)

0.74

Values are n (%) based on Kaplan-Meier estimates. *Cardiac death, target vessel myocardial infarction, and ischemic target lesion revascularization.

years. Patients lost to follow-up were censored at the last known follow-up date. At 1 year post-PCI, smokers compared with nonsmokers had a lower rate of TLF (6.0% vs. 7.2%; p ¼ 0.006), and a trend toward less TLR (5.8% vs.

24,633 (98.9%) patients enrolled in the 18 randomized trials, 6,722 (27.6%) of whom were current smokers. Table 2 summarizes baseline patient clinical characteristics and angiographic findings stratified by smoking

status.

Compared

with

nonsmokers,

smokers were more likely to be men, were younger (by w9 years), and were less likely to have other cardiac risk factors including diabetes mellitus, hypertension, and hyperlipidemia. Smokers were also less likely to have prior PCI or prior CABG surgery.

6.5%; p ¼ 0.06), but a greater rate of definite or probable ST (1.8% vs. 0.8%; p < 0.0001). There were no significant differences in the rates of death, cardiac death, or MI between smokers and nonsmokers at 1 year (Table 3). At 5 years post-PCI, smokers had significantly higher rates of MI (7.8% vs. 5.6%; p < 0.0001) and definite or probable ST (3.5% vs. 1.8%; p < 0.0001); however, there were no significant differences in the rates of death, cardiac death, TLR, or TLF (Table 3).

Baseline characteristics stratified by study are pre-

MULTIVARIABLE ANALYSIS. Table 4 and the Central

sented in Online Table 1.

Illustration present the risk of adverse outcomes ac-

By angiographic core laboratory analysis smokers were more likely to have longer lesions and more

cording to smoking status before and after adjustment

for

potential

confounders.

Notably,

the

T A B L E 4 Unadjusted and Adjusted HRs for Adverse Events at 5 Years in Patients Stratified by Smoking Status

Death

Smokers (n ¼ 6,722)

Nonsmokers (n ¼ 17,632)

Unadjusted HR (95% CI)

430 (8.6)

1,251 (9.0)

0.97 (0.87–1.08)

p Value

Adjusted HR (95% CI)†

p Value

0.59

1.86 (1.63–2.12)

<0.0001

Cardiac death

196 (3.9)

583 (4.1)

0.94 (0.80–1.10)

0.44

1.68 (1.38–2.05)

<0.0001

Myocardial infarction

450 (7.8)

892 (5.6)

1.37 (1.22–1.53)

<0.0001

1.38 (1.20–1.58)

<0.0001

Target lesion revascularization

589 (12.0)

1,446 (11.4)

1.04 (0.94–1.14)

0.45

1.06 (0.94–1.19)

211 (3.5)

275 (1.8)

2.09 (1.75–2.50)

<0.0001

1.60 (1.28–1.99)

<0.0001

601 (14.8)

1,892 (14.4)

0.98 (0.90–1.08)

0.74

1.05 (1.01–1.10)

0.005

Stent thrombosis (definite/ probable) Target lesion failure*

0.33

Values are n (%) based on Kaplan-Meier estimates. *Cardiac death, target vessel myocardial infarction, and ischemic target lesion revascularization. †Univariate variables included for multivariable analysis were current smoker, age (10-yr increments), sex, diabetes, insulin-treated diabetes, hypertension, hyperlipidemia, previous percutaneous coronary intervention, previous coronary artery bypass grafting, previous myocardial infarction, acute coronary syndromes vs. stable coronary artery disease, any moderate/ severe calcification, lesion length, bare metal stents vs. second-generation drug-eluting stents, first vs. second-generation drug-eluting stents, any occlusion, any American College of Cardiology class C lesion. CI ¼ confidence interval; HR ¼ Hazard ratio.

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JACC: CARDIOVASCULAR INTERVENTIONS VOL. 12, NO. 19, 2019 OCTOBER 14, 2019:1941–50

Smoker’s Paradox

C ENTR AL I LL U STRA T I O N Forest Plots Showing Unadjusted and Adjusted HRs for Adverse Events at 5 Years in Patients According to Smoking Status

Unadjusted vs. Adjusted Hazard Ratio (95% Confidence Interval) Death

Cardiac Death

0.97 (0.87–1.08), p = 0.59 1.86 (1.63–2.12), p < 0.0001 0.94 (0.80–1.10), p = 0.44 1.68 (1.38–2.05), p < 0.0001

Myocardial Infarction

1.37 (1.22–1.53), p < 0.0001

Target Lesion Revascularization

1.04 (0.94–1.14), p = 0.45 1.06 (0.94–1.19), p = 0.33

Definite/Probable Stent Thrombosis

2.09 (1.75–2.50), p < 0.0001 1.60 (1.28–1.99), p < 0.0001

Target Lesion Failure

1.38 (1.20–1.58), p < 0.0001

0.98 (0.90–1.08), p = 0.74 1.17 (1.05–1.30), p = 0.005 0.50

0.75

1.00

Risk Decreases

1.50

2.00

2.50 3.00

Risk Increases

Unadjusted HR

Adjusted HR

Yadav, M. et al. J Am Coll Cardiol Intv. 2019;12(19):1941–50.

The true risk among smokers after percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) emerges only after adjustment of risk factors as evidenced by the marked changes in hazard ratios for death, cardiac death, and target lesion failure. These findings likely underlie the smoker’s paradox often reported in smokers in the published reports. HR ¼ hazard ratio.

association between smoking and the occurrence of

smoking status and hypertension (p int ¼ 0.02),

death, cardiac death, TLR, and TLF were neutral

hyperlipidemia (p int ¼ 0.01), and ACS (pint ¼ 0.0002)

before adjustment, but after adjustment, smoking

for death (Figure 1), but no interactions were present

was strongly and significantly associated with higher

for definite or probable ST (Online Figure 1). The

5-year rates of death, cardiac death, and TLF. Smok-

hazard ratio for death among smokers with ACS and

ing continued to be associated with higher rates of MI

stable CAD were 1.61 (95% confidence interval: 1.37 to

and definite or probable ST after adjustment for po-

1.94) and a 2.19 (95% confidence interval: 1.82 to 2.65)

tential confounders. In sensitivity analysis, there

respectively (p int ¼ 0.02), after adjusting for cova-

were no significant differences in outcomes between

riates (Online Figure 2).

the 4 test methodologies (Online Table 2). Table 5 shows the independent predictors of death

DISCUSSION

and other adverse ischemic events. Smoking was an independent predictor of death, cardiac death, MI,

The principal findings of the present pooled analysis

definite or probable ST, and TLF. In subgroup anal-

of IPD from 18 large-scale, multicenter, randomized

ysis, significant interactions were present between

controlled stent trials are as follows: 1) smokers

1945

1946

Yadav et al.

JACC: CARDIOVASCULAR INTERVENTIONS VOL. 12, NO. 19, 2019 OCTOBER 14, 2019:1941–50

Smoker’s Paradox

smoking was a strong and independent predictor of

T A B L E 5 Independent Predictors of Adverse Outcomes at 5 Years

death, cardiac death, MI, definite or probable ST, and

HR (95% CI)

p Value

TLF. Given decades of evidence related to the detri-

Death Current smoker

1.86 (1.63–2.12)

<0.0001

mental effect of cigarette smoking on health in general (33,34), the role of smoking in relation to

Age (10-yr increase)

2.19 (2.06–2.32)

<0.0001

Insulin-treated diabetes

1.68 (1.40–2.02)

<0.0001

Previous coronary artery bypass grafting

1.45 (1.23–1.71)

<0.0001

Diabetes

1.41 (1.23–1.61)

<0.0001

Previous myocardial infarction

1.32 (1.17–1.49)

<0.0001

Male

1.24 (1.10–1.39)

0.0003

First- vs. second-generation drug-eluting stent

1.16 (1.03–1.32)

0.02

Hyperlipidemia

cardiovascular outcomes has been controversial at best since the first description of the so-called smoker’s paradox (4,5). Some studies have supported its existence (i.e., smoking improves cardiovascular outcomes in the context of an acute event such as an MI) (3–9), whereas others have refuted its

0.82 (0.73–0.92)

0.0007

Current smoker

1.68 (1.38–2.05)

<0.0001

Age (10-yr increase)

1.89 (1.73–2.06)

<0.0001

these studies were registry analyses or were con-

Diabetes

1.81 (1.49–2.19)

<0.0001

ducted in the era of thrombolytic therapy and balloon

Insulin-treated diabetes

1.74 (1.35–2.24)

<0.0001

angioplasty; this limits their applicability to modern

Prior coronary artery bypass grafting

1.62 (1.28–2.04)

<0.0001

PCI. To the best of our knowledge, our study is by far

Any occlusion

1.53 (1.17–2.02)

0.002

the largest patient-level pooled analysis of random-

Prior myocardial infarction

1.42 (1.19–1.70)

0.0001

ized controlled trials with blinded core laboratory

Any moderate/severe calcification

1.38 (1.17–1.62)

0.0001

analyses and independent event adjudication inves-

Hyperlipidemia

0.76 (0.64–0.90)

0.001

tigating

existence (i.e., smoking is not associated with better

Cardiac death

Myocardial infarction

cardiovascular outcomes) (10–12). Moreover, many of

the

smoker’s

paradox

concept

in

the

contemporary stent era.

Current smoker

1.38 (1.20–1.58)

<0.0001

First- vs. second-generation drug-eluting stent

1.75 (1.47–2.07)

<0.0001

Insulin-treated diabetes

1.58 (1.26–2.00)

BMS vs. second-generation drug-eluting stents

1.54 (1.24–1.91)

<0.0001

Prior myocardial infarction

1.39 (1.21–1.60)

<0.0001

0.0001

Prior percutaneous coronary intervention

1.31 (1.13–1.51)

0.0004

Previous coronary artery bypass grafting

1.27 (1.03–1.56)

0.02

Hypertension

1.23 (1.07–1.40)

0.003

Any moderate/severe calcification

1.19 (1.05–1.36)

0.007

Smokers

undergoing

PCI

were

significantly

younger, were predominantly men, and had a lower prevalence of known CAD risk factors including diabetes

mellitus,

hypertension,

hyperlipidemia,

prior PCI, or prior CABG surgery. These baseline differences were also noted in most other largescale studies including SYNTAX (Synergy between PCI

with

Taxus

and

Cardiac

Surgery)

trial

Any ACC class C lesion

1.18 (1.02–1.37)

0.03

(3,4,10,13,35). This finding underlines the fact that

Lesion length

1.01 (1.01–1.02)

<0.0001

smokers are prone to more rapidly develop CAD or present

ST (definite/probable)

with

plaque

rupture

and

thrombosis,

Current smoker

1.60 (1.28–1.99)

<0.0001

necessitating PCI almost a decade earlier compared

First- vs. second-generation drug-eluting stent

1.97 (1.45–2.67)

<0.0001

with nonsmokers, even with a lower prevalence of

Insulin-treated diabetes

1.73 (1.17–2.57)

0.006

coronary risk factors (10). After proper adjustment

BMS vs. second-generation drug-eluting stents

1.65 (1.12–2.42)

0.01

for potentially relevant confounders, smokers had

Prior myocardial infarction

1.52 (1.19–1.94)

0.0007

an w95% increased risk of death, w85% increased

Prior percutaneous coronary intervention

1.35 (1.05–1.75)

0.02

risk of cardiac death, and w70% increased risk of

Any moderate or severe calcification

1.31 (1.07–1.62)

0.01

definite or probable ST at 5 years after coronary

Lesion length

1.01 (1.01–1.02)

0.0005

0.87 (0.79–0.96)

0.006

Age (10-yr increase)

Continued on the next page

stent

implantation

compared

with

nonsmokers.

Thus, smoking results not only earlier presentation with CAD, but also a poor prognosis after contemporary

percutaneous

revascularization

therapy,

emphasizing the long-term deleterious effects of undergoing PCI were significantly younger and had

smoking.

less coronary risk factors compared with nonsmokers;

Potential mechanisms to explain the increase in

2) at 5 years post-PCI, smokers had similar unadjusted

mortality and adverse ischemic events after stenting

rates of death and cardiac death but higher rates of MI

in patients who are active smokers is likely multi-

and ST compared with nonsmokers; and 3) after

factorial. Smokers have increased platelet aggrega-

multivariable adjustment for potential confounders,

tion (36,37), increased fibrinogen, and decreased

OCTOBER 14, 2019:1941–50

fibrinolytic activity compared with nonsmokers (37), creating a state of hypercoagulability that pre-

Smoker’s Paradox

T A B L E 5 Continued

HR (95% CI)

disposes to acute thrombosis (38). Moreover, in patients with obstructive CAD, smoking may cause

1947

Yadav et al.

JACC: CARDIOVASCULAR INTERVENTIONS VOL. 12, NO. 19, 2019

p Value

Target lesion revascularization

coronary vasoconstriction (39). Smoking also in-

Current smoker

1.06 (0.94–1.19)

creases myocardial workload by increasing heart rate,

BMS vs. second-generation drug-eluting stents

2.59 (2.20–3.05)

<0.0001

myocardial contractility, and blood pressure (38). The

Prior coronary artery bypass grafting

1.44 (1.21–1.71)

<0.0001

higher carboxyhemoglobin level in smokers also de-

First- vs. second-generation drug-eluting stent

1.32 (1.14–1.52)

0.0001

Prior percutaneous coronary intervention

1.31 (1.16–1.48)

<0.0001

Diabetes

1.22 (1.08–1.39)

0.001

Insulin-treated diabetes

1.21 (1.00–1.46)

0.05

creases blood oxygenation. Smoking induces catecholamine surge with cardiac ischemia, which may be a cause of cardiac arrhythmias and sudden cardiac death (40). Moreover, smoking decreases highdensity lipoproteins and increases oxidized lowdensity lipoproteins (41,42), induces endothelial dysfunction (43) and neutrophil activation (38), causes oxidant injury (43), increases fibrinogen levels,

0.33

Hypertension

1.11 (1.00–1.24)

0.05

Lesion length

1.01 (1.01–1.02)

<0.0001

Age (10-yr increase)

0.91 (0.87–0.96)

0.0002

Male

0.89 (0.80–1.00)

0.04

Prior myocardial infarction

0.88 (0.78–1.00)

0.04

TLF*

and causes platelet activation (37), all of which in-

Current smoker

1.17 (1.05–1.30)

0.005

crease the rate of atherosclerosis and plaque pro-

BMS vs. second-generation drug-eluting stents

2.01 (1.72–2.35)

<0.0001

gression by direct or indirect effects (38).

Previous coronary artery bypass grafting

1.62 (1.42–1.85)

<0.0001

First- vs. second-generation drug-eluting stent

1.39 (1.23–1.57)

<0.0001 <0.0001

STUDY STRENGTHS AND LIMITATIONS. The present

Insulin-treated diabetes

1.38 (1.18–1.62)

analysis has several strengths. IPD pooling of more

Diabetes

1.23 (1.10–1.37)

0.0003

than 24,000 patients from 18 randomized trials, each

Any moderate or severe calcification

1.19 (1.08–1.30)

0.0004

of which was monitored and had careful event adju-

Any ACC class C lesion

1.19 (1.07–1.32)

0.002

Hypertension

1.13 (1.02–1.25)

0.02

Age (10-yr increase)

1.05 (1.01–1.10)

0.02

Lesion length

1.01 (1.00–1.01)

<0.0001

dication, helped to identify differences that were hard to ascertain in previous underpowered studies. A recent post hoc analysis of the SYNTAX trial at 5 years also showed similar results. Smokers had worse clinical outcomes due to a higher incidence of recurrent MI in both the PCI and CABG arms, and smoking was an independent predictor of the composite endpoint of death or MI or stroke and the

Variables included for multivariable analysis were current smoker, age (10-yr increments), sex, diabetes, insulintreated diabetes, hypertension, hyperlipidemia, prior percutaneous coronary intervention, prior coronary artery bypass grafting, prior myocardial infarction, acute coronary syndrome vs. stable coronary artery disease, any moderate/severe calcification, lesion length, BMS vs. second-generation drug-eluting stents, first- vs. secondgeneration drug-eluting stents, any occlusion, any ACC class C lesion. *Includes cardiac death, target vessel myocardial infarction, and ischemic target lesion revascularization. Abbreviations as in Tables 1 and 2.

composite endpoint of death or MI or stroke or target vessel revascularization (13). The IPD approach also allows for multivariable analysis to adjust for baseline imbalances, and subgroup analyses. There were

the number of packs of cigarettes smoked, we

no significant interactions between smoking status

could not assess a dose-dependent relationship to

and numerous variables, except for hypertension,

outcomes. Definitions of MI were slightly different

hyperlipidemia, and ACS at 5 years for death as an

across trials, potentially reducing precision. Several

outcome, implying that smoking with hypertension

angiographic

or with ACS combined have a particularly poor long-

small vessels, long lesions, and overlapping stents

term prognosis.

were not systematically collected in all randomized

As in most previous studies of this subject, smoking status was defined at baseline; data on smoking status during follow-up were not available. We cannot

and

procedural

variables

such

as

trials. Similarly, data on access site, left ventricular function,

and

medication

adherence

were

not

available.

therefore evaluate the impact of smoking crossovers after treatment (from nonsmokers or smokers, or vice versa), although the deleterious impact of smoking

CONCLUSIONS

identified in the present report may have been even greater were we able to account for such effects. In

Results from the present large-scale analysis largely

addition, we were unable to differentiate ex-smokers

dismisses a smoker’s paradox after PCI with coronary

from nonsmokers. Also, owing to the lack of data on

stent

implantation.

Even

before

multivariable

1948

Yadav et al. Smoker’s Paradox

JACC: CARDIOVASCULAR INTERVENTIONS VOL. 12, NO. 19, 2019 OCTOBER 14, 2019:1941–50

F I G U R E 1 Forest Plots Showing Subgroup Analysis for Death According to Smoking Status

Subgroup analysis shows significant interaction of smoking status with hypertension, hyperlipidemia and acute coronary syndrome. ACC ¼ American College of Cardiology; BMS ¼ bare-metal stent; CABG ¼ coronary artery bypass graft; CI ¼ confidence interval; DES ¼ drug-eluting stent; KM ¼ Kaplan-Meier; MI ¼ myocardial infarction; PCI ¼ percutaneous coronary intervention.

Yadav et al.

JACC: CARDIOVASCULAR INTERVENTIONS VOL. 12, NO. 19, 2019 OCTOBER 14, 2019:1941–50

Smoker’s Paradox

adjustment, active smokers had higher 5-year rates of MI and ST after stenting. When baseline imbalances were also taken into account, smoking was also associated with increased long-term rates of cardiac and all-cause mortality. Given the doubleedged sword of earlier presentation by nearly a

PERSPECTIVES WHAT IS KNOWN? Some studies have shown that smokers have better outcomes after PCI, a phenomenon widely known as the smoker’s paradox.

decade and increased long-term adverse outcomes

WHAT IS NEW? The smoker’s paradox may be explained by the

after PCI, the strongest possible individual and

younger age and lower prevalence of risk factors among

societal-based efforts should be undertaken to pre-

smokers; these trends reverse after adjustment of risk factors

vent smoking and strongly encourage its cessation

such that early and late outcomes are substantially worse in

once begun.

smokers after PCI.

ADDRESS FOR CORRESPONDENCE: Dr. Gregg W.

Stone, Columbia University Medical Center, Cardiovascular Research Foundation, 1700 Broadway, 8th Floor, New York, New York 10019. E-mail: gs2184@

WHAT IS NEXT? Further randomized studies are needed to study the impact of smoking on heart disease in general and specifically after PCI. Greater emphasis on smoking cessation strategies is warranted in patients with CAD.

columbia.edu. Twitter: @greggwstone.

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KEY WORDS coronary artery disease, coronary artery disease outcomes, smoker’s paradox, smokers

A PPE NDI X For supplemental tables and figures, please see the online version of this paper.