The solar revolution

The Solar Revolution Micropower and Security in the Changing World As society

revises

on America, renewable much tions.

definitions

one potential energy

reduced

industry

dependence

Such a world

oil-independent

of security scenario/plan could

leaps out. The

in principle

on oil, devoid

would dismantle

world would

in the wake of the attack

to follow

oil price shocks.

fore attractive

targets

from). Jeremy Leggett, future

with

threats.

the recessions

The nuclear-free

category

of uniquely

world

dangerous

Explosive RE growth

The of

with this twenty-year-old

ket advances since, Solar Century that

with

sufficient

and there-

into the $2 trillion global energy markets.

Solar Century*,

rity-scale

his vision of the

will undoubtedly

budgets

given national-secu-

and concerted

tional action, renewable

play.

in principle

provide

industry

this security-building shift?

perform paradigm

Callers to Solar Century

since September

11 th who have

of the

needs much

faster than most people appreciate. The

potential

uncontroversial,

for renewables

is vast,

yet underappreciated.

In

the case of solar PV, for example, even in a cloudy country

like the UK, BP has calcu-

lated that modern PV technology

span from the worlds of military

all available roofs would generate more elec-

security,

tricity than the nation currently consumes A recent Performance and in a year.4

that

the news media, banking.

twenty

time

the

minister,

and

Consider

years ago, at the

of the

shock,

second Saudi

oil price

Arabian

oil

Sheik Yamani, warned

Innovation

applied to

Unit study accepts that the UK

could also provide all its current electricity demand

with offshore

wind

farms,

using

just a small fraction of the areas suitable for

his fellow OPEC

ministers,

“if

them, and easily-available wave power could

we force western

countries

to

double current

national

demand.5

But we

invest heavily in finding alterna-

do not need to rely on just one technology;

tive sources of energy, they will. This will take them no more

we can mix and match

than seven to ten years.” That

need for constancy of supply, and hydrogen

was

and fuel cells can provide

with

twenty

the

technology

years ago.

The

of

the technologies.

Biomass power plants can balance the grid’s means of mass

chose not to invest in renewable

storage of energy. Hydrogen, fuel cells, and batteries mean

energy then.

PV and other renewables will become cen-

Renewable

world tech-

nologies remain dwarfed by oil,

trally relevant to transport

gas and coal two decades later,

vehicles are under development and ready Hydrogen fuel can be made in prototype.

even though we have been warned for most of that period that if we continue

January/February

could

the majority

asked this and related questions

investment

16

interna-

micropower

world’s power and transport How quickly could the renewable energy

technolo-

gies could grow explosively, rapidly eating In ideal circumstances,

and the key role that renewables

believes

market-enablement

resources, renewable micropower

deprive

opin-

ion, and with the many technical and mar-

to attack (fly planes into or steal plutonium UK delivers

ruinous

global warming.3

Consistent

that tend

would

fuel we will unleash

and environmentally

sta-

power

be far less prone to the spawning

in the first place, not to mention of an entire

of nuclear

carbon-based

economically

modern

a world

many security

terrorists terrorists

build

much

2002

REFOCUS

burning

so

www.re-focusnet

and oil. Fuel-cell

from water using solar and other renewable electricity.

Battery

cars chargeable

from

FEATURE

r

being

Century

*Solar

is co-founder equity

of the

first private

renewable

energy

fund,

Energies

Invest AG’ and has gained a

Sarasin’s

SOL

\R

of fossil-fuel

REVOLUTION

and nuclear

proliferate

the mainframe.

They

tions company, having so far undertaken

If governments

most on buildings

collective

UK solar solu-

- in 20 months

of

courage

ers and

operations.*

have

defy

renewables 350

are available today, capable

miles per charge

mance.

and sports-car

All rhis is feasible:

perfor-

it merely

imagination, leadership, bold _ and expenditure appropriate

of

requires

building

and layer upon

to the new

co act alone.

the

oil

consider

which

f lgure

military billion

upwards

higher.

billing

a few

be able to build

dollars

competitively

energy

built,

around

- where

measured

in new

weapons

A

solar

effective

solar

industry

security

people

would

no access

solar electricity

worth

of military

many

more

power

given

to achieve

power

means

ty. The

coal would

to nuclear

war.

of

cut

the

deeply

the

ulrimately .?T

Well both and

now

one

to the

global

Union

quibble

in

here

though

not

The economic global

of the

warming

trillion-dollar

industry.

The

biological

danger

global

warming

rhe

of coral

reefs.

Insurance industry backing Insurance

leaders 1990s

bankrupted

have

that

been

that their

by global

ed wildfire,

rhar the Soviet

threat

poses ro the survival

had

discovered

the

insurance

industry

CIA

the Soviets crisis of the

exist today,

Earth.

survival

involves

the early

War

Planet

involves

poses

years.

Cold

those weapons

by any superpower.

the

in rhe

rhat missile

seem like a rrifling

on

Imagine

hack

insistence

The Cuban

be

comparison.

Think of it this way that

ally America

warming.

has been

No major

since

could

Theirs

dodging

windstorm,

storm-surge

\varning

industry

be is an

bullets

fur

drought-relat-

or other

flood

has

civilian offer

many

secu-

to electricity

aI all.

of them

can

afford

prices,

given

in a few days’

be

economies

Think able

therefore discussed

how

co buy

planrs

big

of scale. Local

economies,

which global above

buvs securi-

involve

(PV), but PV is no more

than

one

of the family

able

energy.

All the

only

we

their

be

solar phorovoltaics member

and

the

US air

would

Two billion

manufacturing

examples

be “second

gas,

of

R-

with

countries

up to support

in her enraged

one

millions

ago a body

unless

warming

in

at the end of every NATO

would

laden

explosive

address

will

local

climate

ahead

missiles,

up,

of emergency

expenditures.

local and

of oil, of global

are

revving

The The

rhe

would

nations.

counted

people

enough

enhanced

than

even at today’s

of credit

neighbours

be

back down.

reefs.

be easy ro imagine.

runway.

invented

drought

ren years

that

is

beachheads

even

rhan

nuclear

coral

that their

repli-

will

enjoying

of millions

channels

securiry

pushing

would

base

markets.

of other

have

Hundreds

Such

our

52s

the

most

one

literally

a an

not

second

on the planet,

on:

out

ecosystem the

quite

would

was

wipe

of terrorists

Star Wars-levels

funding

rity concerns

on

unlike

returns

generations

industry

from

because the

on rhe capital

growth

fields.

be quickly

more

- the

even

playing

would

the world,

option

returns

burning

Iwo to ten PV man-

is in the

our

economies

bring

other

to

USSR,

ecosystem

1960s

are quire

Its

was

auto which

they

proliferating

starvation

examplr.

able to gencr-

skewed

towards

effects

in

in

the

counrries

queuing

warming

sure

Lvell.

tbar

warned

products

once

Afghanisran

experts

industry

sholv

us that

clear

protracted.

solar

the cars.

like the long-running

More

producing cost

as

bombs.

on technolo-

plants,

airliners

This

because

depending

today’s

wirh

the

extremes

cost

a day.

be

becoming

rhe

require

Global

by making

secure

windfall

seriously

in

force

they can require

can

of teaching

per

plants,

are electricity

cated

War

comparative

would

war

Gulf

will

a billion

gy type,

sends

dollars

With

ufacturing

billion

cost will be higher,

period

Consider

$2

conflicts

The

of a billion

rime the overall rhe

around

demand

invest

ranges

secLI-

do nor have

for oil-free

of doing.

besr built are

They

prototype

process

global

cost of actual

far

their

to

to retool

capable

run at $700400

per year globally, day.” The

than

economically-vital

found

able

- indeed

The

able

entire

response

world,

layer of common

Rather

indusrry

industry

How much would it cost?

the

rity as we do it. Governments

renewables.

For perspective,

denuclearize

we can

itself.

weapons. warfare

economies

weapon

diverse

secret

of economic

western

capitalism

many

the barri-

dreadful

was a form

to wreck down

and

interests,

taxes of the oil companies,

policymaking

imperatives.

budgets,

down

vested

two

biological

individual

ro bring

the

decarbonize

the

all

phones.

70 solar power plants around the UK -

with its hands-on

role as the number-one

One

can

wirh the speed of mobile

Decarbonize and denuclearize

wealth of experience

deployed

in the same way the microcomput-

er disrupted

New

THE

“disruptive”

markets,

world’s

Bank

-

others

of renew-

are capable

of

January/February2002

RE:

www.rc-focus.net

17

cc-j ~~

FEATURE

THE

SOLAR

REVOLUTION

reliance

About the Author Dr Jeremy Leggett, 47, is Chief Executive of Solar Century, a pioneering tric power company.

and therefore

national,

common

and global security. There will be a renew-

He is also a founding

board member

UK-based

solar elec-

able micropower

of the world’s first private-equity-

revolution

ahead - this is inevitable.

in the years

Within

it, there

focussed renewable energy fund, Bank Sarasin’s New Energies Invest AG. He is a board mem-

will be a solar revolution.

ber of Jupiter Green Global Investment

ingly know this and are acting according-

University’s Environmental

Trust, and Associate Fellow in Solar Energy at Oxford

Change Institute.

Leggett took his PhD at the University of Oxford

ly.* Manufacturers

Investors increas-

are scaling

up every-

in 1978, and joined the faculty at the Imperial College of Science and Technology, where dur-

where.

ing an 11 year career he won two major awards for his research, sat on several advisory com-

poised on the edge of a two-trillion

mittees for the UK government’s Natural Environment

market.

oil industry

in the UK and Japan. Between

paigner with Greenpeace Visiting

Internarional,

Fellow at Oxford

Understanding,

Research Council, and consulted for the

1989 and 1996, he was an environmental

under

the UK Prime Minister’s

for Environmental

environment

which time the Washington

Post described him as “one of the half-dozen

sible for putting climate change on the international ernment’s

Industry

Solar Taskforce,

Electricity, National

Westminster

on which

knowledge

Policy and

Understanding,

ments

at

experts most respon-

agenda.” In 1997, he chaired the UK govserving

companies

Bank, and General Accident.

included

this.

Our

The option

is ultimately

of the

comperirors

simple

for governwhere

PV is

concerned.

We can be a spectator

as the

micropower

and solar revolutions

unfold,

References www.newenergiesinvest.ch www.solarcentury.co.uk

of young leaders.”

Statement

Contact: Solar Century, 91-94 Lower Marsh, London, SE1 7AB, UK. Tel: +44 207 803 0100;

by H.

Industry

www.solarcentury.co.uk

1997:

M.

“The

UN

demonstrates

Change

assessment

the need for action on the

world yet. All

warm.

will become more numerous

and intense in

levels of bleaching in the early 1990s. Now

enhanced

this sickening

wide range of sectors threatened,

global

hiking

its own thermostat.

insurance

industry’s

The

property-cata-

phenomenon

in every ocean where

strophe reserve can be wiped out either by

experts worry openly

one or two “megacats”, as the insurers call

decline

big hits on cities, or by a machine-gun

extinction

fire

that

worrying

30 October

Intergovernmental

hit a city in the industrialised a world

reported

Government’s

Solar Taskforce,

Panel on Climate Coral biologists

deploy-

BP, Eastern

In 1999, the Financial Times

and in 2000, Time magazine profiled him as one of “the next generation

Fax: +44 207 803 0101; [email protected];

dollar

and

or we can be a player.

described him as having “done more to change attitudes towards the (solar) resource than almost any other individual,”

economy.

have spotted

advisor, Sir Crispin

Tickell. That year, he won the US Climate Institute’s Award for Advancing

PV manufacturing

technology

ment are set to become cornerstones

working closely with industry. In 1996, he served as a

University’s Green College Centre

working

cam-

Solar PV is a disruptive

is to be found

corals exist. Some that corals are in a

can lead to their

complete

The trend is there to see already: losses have been rising

at around 10% a year in constant dollars for Major insurance

companies

such as the two biggest reinsurers conditional

the

and

world’s

in the

Re and Swiss Re, don’t use

language when they describe it:

Solar talisman

the British

A world run on renewable energy addresses

companies

the security

Corporation

threats

from global-warming

too. The UK Government’s Taskforce

concluded

Industry

Solar

in 1997 that:

“We

recognise the full family of renewable efficient-energy

technologies

the trend is real, and in large part ascribable

in the abatement

to global warming,

nology should be particularly

they say in their annual

and

as being vital

of this risk, but one techimportant

in

reports on the subject. If the trend contin-

the energy mix of a sustainable future: solar

ues, at some point in the next century we

photovoltaic

will be destroying

single most important

wealth as fast as we can

(PV). Solar PV could be the long-term

means of

economy.”

Eastern Guardian

Exchange,

Associates

Ltd,

BP pamphlet: simple.”

and Tokyo who worry

openly about it. Munich

Re went so far as

to say in their 1997 annual report on catalosses that natural catastrophes

on

the scale global warming might inflict could create a domino

effect that would

bring

down the capital markets. As for corals, they are very temperature sensitive. If water temperatures go up just a degree, for as short a period as a few weeks, they begin to bleach. This whitening effect is related to a loss of ability to feed, and it can kill them if the water remains too

Objective

of the Convention

Change.” Over-reliance

on Climate is not

forecourts. Table of of the PIUS scoping note on to

International expenditures

to bear in achieving deep cuts in greenhouse-gas emissions. On top of this, ener-

government

gy efficiency

Intergovernmenral

are legion.

In

summary, solar PV is a talisman for a sustainable, survivable, future. It can and should be at the heart of any government’s targets for increasing energy efficiency, reducing fuel poverty, reducing carbon emissions, and building energy self-

January/February

2002

RE! ’

www.re-focus.net

internal

Declaration

and Ozone

and exrernal on Climate

Depletion,

officials the

cussed

Stockholm

on arms and the military.

The Toronto Change

the

Peace Research Institute, a

necessary. The full family of renewable micropower technologies can be brought

opportunities

Group,

“Solar energy, brilliantly

figure combining on one technology

Intersolar

Available from petrol srarion

renewable energy.

Zurich,

Gilbert

Solar Century.

According

in Munich,

Halcrow

NatWest, Sir Norman Foster Associates,

which

agreed

BP Solar,

Electricity, General Accident,

the deep cuts in greenhouse-gas are the ultimate

Solar taskforce

London,

Royal

of

emissions

strophe

is

centre,

of the green-

and instirutions:

achieving

London, Washington

financial

enhancement

bank-

executives

London

because

major

ruptcy scenario, I have personally talked to

create it. As for the industry-wide insurance

a the

house effect is a threat to the heart of

from natural catastrophes

world, Munich

threat. Among

insurance and banking sectors face serious problems, unmitigated

as a result of global warming.

of smaller catastrophes.

four decades.

greenhouse

where

and experts

creation

of

Panel

on

disrhe

Climate

Change. Dresdener Research, comes

Kleinwort “Solar

the sun,”

PV

Wasserstein industry:

here

200 1. This report con-

cludes that the PV market will grow fast and recommends

investments.