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The transition of the mentally retarded from school to work: The implications of structural unemployment
The Transition of the Mentally Retarded from School to Work: The Implications of Structural Unemployment
Roland
Brown,
Michael Hibbard, and Barbara Waters University of Oregon
The recent federal policy initiative placing a national priorit\ on the transition of individuals with disabilities from school to working life has focused a great deal of attention on issues of employment of the disabled. However, most of the discussion and activities have concentrated on the supply side of the equation: training for employment, job design. and the social and economic value of work. Relatively little attention has been paid to the question of demand for workers with disabilities or the nature of the labor market they face. This paper examines the question of employment for one group of disabled, those l\?th mental retardation. We analyze the factors influencing the ability of the economy to absorb these new workers and make a series of recommendations for policy research needed to facilitate the success of the transition polic!..
The recent federal policy initiative “establishing a national priority on improving the transition from school to working life of all indiResearch for this article was supported in part b\
227
228
Brown, Hibbard,
and Waters
liduals \\-ith disabilities” (Will, 1984. p. 1) has focused a great deal of attention on the issue of emplovment of people bvith disabilities. Howe\.er, most of the discussion and activities around the transition from school to M.OI-~ has been concentrated on the suppl\. side of the equation. The potential of tvorkers l\ith disabilities has’ been examined in terms of job design and training (Bellamy, Horner, & Inman, 19i9; Hasazi, Gordon, 8~ Roe, 1983). The social and economic value of emplovment. both to people xvith disabilities and to society, ha1.e been explored (Collignon. 1982; DeFazio & Flexer, 1983; President’s Committee, 1983). However, relatively little attention has been paid to the question of demand for lvorkers with disabilities or the nature of the labor market they face. Bellamy (1983) has recently remarked that research to explore this issue further would help greatly in polic!. and program planning for the disabled. The purpose of the present article is to initiate that process. By focusing on one specific group of the disabled, those ivith mental retardation, 1j.e are able to examine the labor market they will most probably face and assess some of the factors influencing the ability of the economy to absorb these new t+,orkers. JVe first set the scene b\, briefi\. discussing the importance of emplovmeni to the communit!, adjustment of the retarded. \t’ith this’ background we take a look at economic trends that are affecting the demand for labor, especialI!, in -jobs for Mhich workers ivith mental retardation seem most likely to be competing. We look at both the number of jobs projected and at the trends which are influencing competition for‘ those jobs. The results of this analvsis provide the basis for a discussion of the politics of employment policy for people lvith disabilities. ending kvith a set of recommendations for polic!. research needed to take effective action in this area. Because the data on the population of people lvith mental retardation are so spotty, \re focus our analysis on the state of Oregon. The nature of retardation makes it reasonable to generalize from the population of Oregon \\.ith respect to such demographic characteristics as incidence, le\.el of disability, and availabilit). of services. !\vliile the econom\’ of Oregon is not typical, it has some features that make it partlcularl!. useful for this anal\psis. Oregon is deliberatel~~ moving its economy from the traditi6nal base in heal.\ manufacturing tow.ard the “high tech” and service sectors. Since much of the emphasis in jobs for workers with mental retardation is in the latter areas, Orkgon seems to be an advantageous place to tr\. to begin to understand the demand side of the transition problem:
Structural
Unemployment
of the Mentally Retarded
Employment
229
and the Disabled
It has been approximately one school generation since the passage of P.L. 94-142 and related state laws, guaranteeing all children, regardless of disability, access to free appropriate public education. One of the implicit goals of American public education, including education for the disabled, is qualification for employment. Despite this, people with disabilities have not been employed in substantial numbers. Between 50 and 80% of working age adults who report a disability are jobless (Bureau of the Census, 1982; Hasazi, Gordon, & Roe, 1985; U.S. Civil Rights Commission, 1983). It is argued that employment of the disabled will reduce their dependence-financial and otherwise-on public programs, producing two sorts of benefits. First, returns to public investment in disabled people will be increased. Second, success in employment is seen as a central component of a satisfactory adjustment to adulthood and independence. Returns to investment. With respect to the first point, the U.S. Department of Education reports (President’s Committee, 1983, p. 4) that on average the lifetime earnings of a worker with mental retardation improves by $10.40 for every dollar spent on their habilitation. Other analyses have been somewhat less optimistic, though still very positive. For example, only relating paid earnings to direct program costs, Collignon and Dodson (1975) estimated a $7.52 return per dollar invested in habilitation. Though the rates of pay of workers with mental retardation are often quite low, it is important to bear in mind that such earnings can make a significant contribution to total economic production. To illustrate, in his pathbreaking study on The Economics of Mental Retardation, Conley (1973) reported that in 1970, an 18 year old man with moderate retardation had probable lifetime earnings of $62,000, based on then-typical employment patterns of people with mental retardation. A similarly situated woman could expect lifetime earnings of $9,000. Collignon (1982) argues that if social policy were changed to assist them to maintain continuous employment, lifetime earnings of men with moderate retardation would increase by 150% over those 1970 dollar figures and those of women by 1 ,OOO%. Converting Conley’s figures to 198 1 dollars and using Collignon’s percent increases yields estimated lifetime earnings of about $363,000 for men and $232,000 for women. These figures suggest that the potential of workers with mental retardation has been underestimated. Admittedly they do not approach the expected lifetime earnings of people with a high
230
Brown,
Hibbard,
and Waters
school diploma--$660,000 for an 18 !rear- old man and S2Cl6,OOO for an 18 year old L\-oman (in 198 1 dollars, assuming a 3% inflation rate and a 2% annual increase in producti\it\.). Hol\vever, the\. compare very favorably with the lifetime earnings that an 18 vear old high school drop-out can expect. RIen with moderate retardation ivould, on average, earn nearh. 80% of the expected lifetime o f an 18 year old male high school drop-out. earnings ($460,000) LYonlen lvith moderate retardation positivel!. shine in comparison The latter can expect lifetime with female high school drop-outs. earnings of only $163,000-substantially less than the estimate for jvomen Mith moderate retardation (Bureau of the Census. 1983). Tlw social L&P of uwk. Beyond this dollar contribution is a normative consideration. The stated goal of federal transition policy is that disabled “individuals lealing the school system obtain jobs.” This goal is based on the assumption that “employllent is a critical aspect of the lives of most adults in our societ\” (\Yill. 198-l. p. 3). It reflects the importance currently placed on normal lifestyles for the disabled. The premise is that all members of societl., including disabled people, gain self-identity and a sense of personal autonomy from irork, as well as being initiated into important societal norms (Bellamy, Sheehan, Horner. & Boles, 1980: Horn, O’Donnell, A? \*itulano, 1983: Rlithaug, Horiuchi. & Fallning, 1985). U’hile the eiiclence is mixed, work is also thought to ha\,e an important added dimension for people with mental retardation: it provides access to a \,alued role and image (self-supporting lvage OI salar\, earner) that people l\ithout mental retardation take ~‘OI granted (DeFazio & Flexer. 1983; Halpern, 1985). Thus, though the precise meaning of employment to people with mental retardation ma\. be fuzz\., there seems to be no doubt that ivork contributes to their subjective qualitv of life.
The f utuw of emj.doymerlt for the clisahled. The federal transition policy eri\isions tivo l&,els of employment for disabled w.orkers. unsupported and supported, vith three bridges from school to ivork (I\-ill. 1984). First, man\. people find jobs through a personal netn.ork of‘ farnil\., friends, and co-ivorkers. It can be assumecl that some disabled p’eople find unsupported or competiti\.e emplo\,ment through such netivorks (Hasazi, et al., 19851). Others need eniplo~ment preparation programs to move into unsupported, open emplovment. Such time-limited preparation programs are a second bridge from school to work. Third, some disabled people require \.arvmg degrees of ongoing services, including long-term
Structural Unemployment of the Mentally Retarded
231
supportive employment (Bellamy, Rhodes, Bourbeau, & Mank, 1982). No matter how effective this spectrum of programming for the transition from school to work becomes, attention must also be paid to the opportunities for employment, the demand for workers. Some issues in this regard are specific to workers with mental retardation. These include equal employment opportunity, incentives to employers to offer jobs, and the impact of employment on eligibility for such critical services as health care. Other issues have to do with the broader economic environment toward which the federal transition policy is propelling these workers. These include the area to which we now turn, the labor market and competition for jobs. Workers with Mental Retardation and the Changing American Economy The labor market is going through its own kind of transition. From traditional dependence on heavy manufacturing, steel, automobiles, and so on, including the timber industry in Oregon, the high tech and service sectors of the economy are emerging as the principle sources of jobs. In Oregon, for example, from 1979 to 1982, about 40% of the jobs in occupations principally associated with the timber industry were lost. At the same time, there were large increases in jobs in high tech and services. Jobs for computer operators increased by over 90%, for programmers by 16%, for counter attendants by 55%, and for fast food preparers by over 70% (Allen, 1984). It is estimated that for every ten jobs lost in the traditional sector, nine jobs are created in the newer sectors of the economy. However, the new jobs pay a lower wage on average than those they are replacing (Bluestone, 1984; Harris, 1984). It is not an exaggeration to suggest that as General Motors becomes less important as a source of jobs, firms like McDonald’s are becoming more important. Applebaum (1983) has argued that, in the nearterm, job growth will come at the top and the bottom of the occupational distribution while opportunities in the middle shrink. As a result it is expected that there will be a serious loss of what are called family wage jobs, those paying enough to comfortably support a demographically typical family-say $20,000 per year in 1982 dollars, plus adequate health and retirement benefits. The ecun~~~c tru~~ur~ut~on, ~u~~~wage jobs, and the reservation wage. The case of Oregon from 1979 to 1984 is instructive in this regard. While it was admittedly not a typical period, with the na-
Brown, Hibbard,
232
and Waters
tional economy experiencing its deepest downturn since the 1930s a look at the details ofjob losses and gains by industry does provide an interesting insight into the future of the labor market. According to a staff report on the Oregon State Legislature’s Joint Committee on Trade and Economic Development (1984), Oregon’s economy experienced a net loss of 52,100 jobs during the years in question. More specifically, 50,800 “family wage” jobs were lost (along with a loss of 14,700 lower paying jobs). At the same time, there was a gain of 13,400 jobs in the service sector (see Table 1). In its report the Joint Committee staff foresees little growth for the well-paid moderately skilled jobs in manufacturing and construction that have formed the backbone of the Oregon economy. A continuing decline in the number of family wage jobs has serious implications for individual workers, families, and communities. For workers, the decline in higher wage jobs means fewer career opportunities and TABLE 1 Changes in Oregon Employment by industry
Jobs lost to recession 1979-1982 26,300
industry (1982 Average salaries) Lumber/wood
products
Jobs gained in recovery 1982-1984 12,100
($2 1,200) 5,200
Metals ($23,500)
22,100
Construction ($21,100)
200
Lost 3,800
Retail trade
14,!300
11,500
($9,700) Gained
4.800
6,400
All other
76,300 Joint
700
manufacturing ($20,200)
All other nonmanufacturing
6,600
Source:
8.600
Services ($13,300)
24,200
Total employment Committee
on Trade
and
Economic
Lost 5,100
Development
(1984)
Structural Unemployment of the Mentally Retarded
233
more dead end jobs. For their families, the decline means a lower standard of living and a poorer quality of life. For Oregon communities, the
decline means an impaired ability to pay for the public services-education, police and fire protection, and parks that most Oregonians enjoy (p. 4).
The loss of family wage jobs is likely to produce a ripple effect in the labor market. Because of the declining number of family wage jobs in traditional industries and the increasing number of lower paying jobs in the growth industries, job seekers are lowering their expectations with regard to the pay they are willing to accept (Wise, Bernstein, & Cuneo, 1985). The point of convergence between pay offered and pay taken is termed the reservation wage (Ehrenberg & Oaxaca, 1976). As formerly high-paid workers accept moderately paying jobs, those who were formerly paid at a moderate rate are forced to accept low pay. The result is a general reduction in the reservation wage, the lowest pay a given worker is willing to accept. The loss of family wage jobs is not unique to Oregon. Some economists anticipate the emergence of a two-tiered labor market (Applebaum, 1983). Policy analysts and other researchers have expressed concern in both the scholarly (Harris, 1984; Peitchinis, 1983) and popular press (“ ‘ High Tech’ No Panacea for Oregon Job Seekers,” 1984; “High-Tech Proving Marx,” 1984; Thurow, 1984) over the pending disappearance of the middle class. Implications for workers with mental retardation. Meanwhile, substantial numbers of young adults with mental retardation are leaving the school system each year with expectations of normalized community living, including the assumption of some type of remunerative work. While the exact number of such people is not known, an estimate is possible. A study by the U.S. Office of Education (1979) found that 1.89% of school-aged children in the U.S. in 1977-1978 had some level of mental retardation. The Rehab Group Inc. (1979), based on a study of FY 1978 state developmental disability plans, estimated that 2.47% of the U.S. population has some level of mental retardation. These rates roughly bracket the conventional wisdom of 2%. According to the 1980 census, there are somewhat over 56 million school-aged children in the U.S. Assuming they are about equally divided among the thirteen school grades (K- 12) (which they are not; for a variety of reasons each grade level shrinks a bit), the number of young adults with mental
Brown, Hibbard, and Waters retardation leaving school can be estimated as ~6,000,OOO x .W i 13 = 85,100. The census found about 61 i,OOO children of school age in Oregon. The same formula (6lf,OOO X .02 / 13). shows that about 1,000 voung adult Oregonians with mental retardation leave school each Gear. In an economv apparently moving toward underemployment and a reduction in the reseivation fvage, what can these new workers expect from the labor market? First, it is important to consider that they are a very small fraction of the total national civilian labor force of over 100 million workers and of the Oregon civilian labor force of 1.3 million (Bureau of the Census, 1983). On one hand their small numbers may be an advantage. As a group they do not represent a threat to the balance of the labor market. On the other hand, their small numbers may make it difficult for them to gain the hearing they need. Employers and workers caught up in the turmoil of a transitional economy may not fully appreciate the special needs of one small segment of society. Second, concern with the entry of workers with mental retardation into the labor market requires consideration of specific employment trends. These workers are not competing across the full job spectrum. They are channeled into occupations xhere, it is believed, their personal limitations will be least problematic. Let us look briefly at trends in these occupations. Of the 20 occupations projected to have the greatest demand for employment in Oregon between 1982 and 1990 (Oregon State Employment Division, 1984), 4 are among those in \\.hichworkers t&h mental retardation have historically been representedkitchen helpers, housekeepers, fast food preparers, and janitors (see Table 2). AI1 these occupations taken together are projected to grow by a little more than 9,000 jobs during the study period (19$2-1990). During the same period about ~,OOO young adults with mental retardation will be leaving school (based on the abose projection of about 1,000 per year). Bearing in mind the decline in the reservation \vage which is rippling through the Oregon labor market, it appears that the competition for these 9,000 jobs \rill be heavy. Even allowing for additional openings that \
Structural Unemployment
of the Mentally TABLE
Retarded
235
2
Occupations in Oregon with Greatest Demand, 1982-1990* Occupation Sales representative Waiter/waitress Truck driver Secretar) General clerk Bookkeeper, hand Cashier Carpenter Janitor/porter/cleaner Xurses aideiorderl) Bartender Food prep, fast food Sales clerk Nurse, professional WelderMamecutter Cleaner, housekeeping Kitchen helper Electrical assembler ,4ccounting clerk Store manager *Total
wage and salarv
1982 Employment
1990 Employment
Set new jobs
44,700 19,990 20,580 25,360 19,790 13,100 18,560 5,360 18,790 11,770 10,570 10,530 12,570 15,170 4,550 6,980 10,680 3,850 9,900 8,180
55,770 24,910 25,300 29,840 23,730 16,150 2 1,420 8,150 21,500 14,460 13,100 12,970 14,980 17,570 6.660 9,000 12,660 5,730 11,x0 9,990
11,020 4,920 4,720 4.480 3.940 3,050 2,860 2,790 2,710 2,690 2,530 2,440 2,410 2,400 2,110 2,020 1,980 1.880 1,880 1,910
employment:
1990 = l.li6.080 1982 = 977.530 Set new iobs =
Source:
Oregon
State
Employment
Division
198..550
(1984).
been represented (see Table 3). All of these occupations taken together are projected to grow by about 1.7 million jobs, while the number of young adults with mental retardation leaving school (based on the estimate of about 85,000 per year) will be about 1.1 million during the same period. Again, it appears that competition for these jobs may be fierce. To summarize, the goal of federal policy is a job for each disabled person leaving school. The value of jobs for the disabled, economically and socially, is undeniable. However, the impact of trends in the economy of the labor market raises questions about the feasibility of the policy goal and the possibility of clashes between disabled workers and underemployed workers who are facing a reduced reservation wage. Each unskilled and semiskilled job is actively competed for by many eager workers who want or need the near-minimum wage offered. Add to their number the young
236
Brown, TABLE Forty Occupations
Hibbard,
3
with Largest Job Growth,
Occupation Building custodian Cashier Secretart Generalclerk, office Sales clerk Nurse, registered N!aiter/waitress Teacher, kindergartenlelementar~ Truckdriver Nurses aide/orderly Sales representative, technical Accountant and auditor Auto mechanic Supervisor of blue-collar workers Kitchen helper Guard and doorkeeper Food preparation and service worker. fast food Store manager Carpenter Electrical/electronic technician Licensed practical nurse Computer systems analyst Electrical engineer Computer programmer Slaintenance repair, general utility Helper, trades Receptionist Electrician Physician Clerical supervisor Computer operator Sales representative, non-technical Laivver Stock clerk Typist Delivery and route worker Bookkeeper, hand Cook. restaurant Bank teller Cook, short order/specialt~/fast food Source: Silvesux, Lukasiewicz, and Einstein (1983)
and Waters
1982-1995
Net change (in 000s)
% Change
779 744 719 696 685 642 562 511 425 423 386 344 324 319 305 300
27.5 47.4 29 .\ 5 29.6 23.5 48.9 33.8 37.4 26..i 34.8 29.3 40.2 38.3 26.6 3.5.9 47.3
297 292 247 222 220 217 209 205 193 190 189 173 163 162 160 160 159 156 1% 153 152 149 142 141
36.7 30. I 28.6 60.7 37.1 x.5.3 65.3 76.9 27.8 31.2 48.8 31.8 33.0 34.6 75.8 2 7 I4 34.3 18.X 15.7 10. *.. ‘1 15.9 42.3 30.0 3”..“.. ‘>
Structural Unemployment of the Mentally Retarded adults with disabilities who have skills and training focused these jobs and the result is many points of potential conflict.
237 on
Discussion To deny the disabled entry into the labor force is not a solution to the problems raised here. It would be in direct conflict with the movement toward deinstitutionalization, normalization, and least restrictive environments-the central components of current social policy. Moreover, as we have seen, the policy can produce significant benefits to people with disabilities and to society as a whole. However, the potential for conflict, inherent in the competitive aspect of remunerative work, requires further investigation if a destructive backlash is to be avoided. This concern has been nicely articulated by Cook (1979): Who, should be helped? Services to the disabled, including employment services, must pass a political test of sorts. Such services are a part of the social welfare system created by legislation. One of the inputs to such legislation is public opinion. In the best traditions of various rights movements in the U.S., people with disabilities and their advocates have used the justice of their cause as the basis of a political strategy to establish their position in the social welfare system. Along with such other groups as the elderly and youth, the disabled rights movement has gained a sympathetic public ear. The result has been a channeling of social welfare resources to them. The demand for social welfare resources always exceeds the supply. Even in the best of times allocative decisions must be made among competing interests. There are more just causes than available resources. As the movement toward normalization takes hold, and especially as more and more people with disabilities compete successfully in the labor market, there is a risk that the arguments for special social welfare programs may become less compelling. For example, it is widely assumed that when general unemployment goes up workers with mental retardation are among the first to lose their jobs. However, Halpern (1973) has shown that while this may be generally true, exceptions can be found “in those fortunate situations where (workers with mental retardation) have been the recipients of effective prevocational training and placement services” (p. 127). The availability of such services depends, in important part, on public opinion. As the reservation wage declines the public may be more likely to see workers with disabilities as a new group of job competitors than as people deserving of services. That is, the very success of the services designed to produce normalization may lead to loss of public support for them. As
238
Brown,
Hibbard,
and Waters
Comes (1984) has commented, “policies i\.hich concentrate on the similarities rather than the differences betlveen disabled people and other disadvantaged groups are iI1 effect a denial of the case that disabled people are entitled to specialized assistance in the labor market” (p. 4.5). The pressure for normalization conflicts lvith the political strategy of the disabled rights mo\.ement precisel!. at the-job nexus. The loftv federal police. goal of’ emplo\ment for l\,orkers \\.ith disabilities f‘aces a formidable barrier. Public support is likeli- to be eroded by the effects on labor markets of the upheaval’ in the econom\z. Economic development must therefore become an important .aspect of the transition issue, in t\vo lvays. First, the potential conflict bettveen displaced lvorkers and Fvorkers rvith disabilities is an outgrowth of direct competition for jobs and can be reduced only through general economic de\,elopment efforts. Those concerned tvith the rights of the disabled would do M.ell to find wa)‘s of linking the issue of employment for Lvorkers \t.ith disabilities lvith the broad issue of structural unemplo)ment and jobs for all. Second, there is a specific need for economic de\,elopment aimed at creating jobs for lvorkers lvith disabilities. This latter is. of’ course. most germane to those directly invol\.ecl in transition research. The sorts of services and assistance to i\.hich Halpern and Cornes address themselves only become relevant i\.hen jobs are available for workers j+.ith disabilities. Thus, in conjunction \vith the current and ongoing research on vocational training for people lvith disabilities it tvould be helpful to carry out broader and more detailed research on present and future labor markets. Let us consider one example. CYill’s ( 1984) three bridges fr-om school to lvorking life seem to assume a relatiifelv stable labor market, a notion that most labor economists rvouid reject. It is probable that brorkers \\ith disabilities w.ill face shifts in the demand for \.arious \rocational skills similar to those experienced b\- the labor force in general. The implication is that Lvorkers with disabilities ma\. cross \\‘ill’s second bridge-time-limited services-more than on& over the course of their Lcork lives. They ma\. need to be retrained several times as the demands of the job market change. .Mso. man\. more \\.orkers ivith disabilities mav be in need of ongoing services in the form of job development than has been anticipated. -To full\, understand the implications of these dynamics, researchers need to look closelv at the factors influencing the level and specific characteristics of’ the demand for v.orkers Lvith disabilities. There are a variety of related policy research issues in this Lrein. Mvith regard to job de\relopment, questions center around
Structural
Unemployment
of the Mentally
Retarded
239
how best to proceed in the delicate political environment of structural unemployment. Should employers be offered incentives to hire workers with disabilities? Should means be found to induce entrepreneurs to develop firms intended to employ primarily (or exclusively) workers with disabilities? Should efforts be made to introduce enclaves of workers with disabilities into ordinary working environments? Would it be worthwhile to engage in research and development on product lines that lend themselves to production by workers with disabilities? A similar range of issues arises concerning the provision of employment-related services to workers with disabilities. How can such services best be provided? Is there some political limit to the level of services that will be supported? How does this limit vary, say with the unemployment level, the nature of the employment engaged in by workers with disabilities, or the nature of their workplace? To be most effective and efficient, should these services be based in the workplace, in an education and training facility, in a social service agency, or some combination? Finally, with regard to the social policies intended to promote job development and employment services, how do the incentive structures for providing services vary among the key players? That is, how can we best structure policy so that there are positive incentives at all levels-federal, state, and local governmental agencies; and workers with disabilities and service contractors; employers; their families-for employment of people with disabilities? To conclude, the importance of economic and employment trends to the success of the transition policy cannot be overstated. The continuing political success of advocacy by and for the disabled depends on an economy in which direct job competition between workers with disabilities and others is minimized. The transition policy itself depends on the availability of jobs appropriate for workers with disabilities. In both cases economic development is an important issue to be addressed by researchers concerned with disability policy, particularly given the unsettled state of the American and world economy. References D. (1984, November). Occupational impacts of the recession. Oregon Labor Oregon State Employment Division, 5-6. Applebaum, E. (1983, June). The future of work: Expectations and realities. Technolo0 Ej Employment. Testimony presented at the Joint Hearings, Committee on Science, Research, and Technology and the Sub-Committee on Science and Technology of the Committee on the Budget, U.S. House of Representatives. Allen,
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loss from evidence.
19-27.
plant
closings
and
Annals of the Ameri-
Structural Unemployment of the Mentally Retarded
241
Hasazi, S.B., Gordon, L.R., & Roe, CA. (1985). Factors associated with the employment status of handicapped youth exiting high school from 1979 to 1983. Exceptional
Children, 32, 455-469.
“High tech” no panacea for Oregon job seekers. (1984, April 1). Eugene (I)rpgon) Register-Guard, p. 15A. High-tech proving Marx? (1984, February 22). Portlund Oregvnian. p. 10B. Horn, W.F., O’Donnell, J.P., & Vitulano, LA. (1983). Long-term follow-up studies of learnjng-disabied persons. Jul~~a~ of Learning Disabilities, 16, 542..“_ 333. Joint Committee on Trade and Economic Development, Oregon State Legislature. (1984, July). Declining numbers of ‘Jamily zage” jobs: A threat to Oregon’s economic health. Salem, OR: Author. Mithaug, D.E., Horiuchi, C.N., & Fanning, F.M. (1985). A report on the Colorado statewide follow-up survey of special education students. Exceptional Children, 51, 397-404.
Oregon
State Employment Division. (1984). Occupational emplqvment trmdr, stute of 1982-1990. [RS Pub 25 (‘i-84)]. Salem, OR: Author. Peitchinis, SC. (1983). Computer technolog?’ and employment. Nelq York: St. Martin’s Press. President’s Committee on Mental Retardation. (1983). The mentall_y retarded worker: An economic d~coue~. Fourteenth Annual Report to the President. IVashington, D.C.: U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, Office of Human Development Services. Rehab Group Inc. (1979, May). Digest of data on persons wrth handicaps and disabilities. (Prepared for the Congressional Research Service, Library of Congress). Falls Church, VA: Author. Silvestri, G.T., Lukasiewicz, J.M., & Einstein, M.E. (1983, November). Occupational employment projections through 1995. MontI~l~Labor Review, 37-48. Thurow, L. (1984, February 5). The disappearance of the middle class. The A’PZL~ York Times, Section 3, p. 3. U.S. Civil Rights Commission. (1983). Accomodating the spectrum of disabilities. Washington, D.C.: Author. U.S. Office of Education. (1979, January). Progress toulard a free uppropr~ate public Oregon,
education:
A report to Congress on the ~~nplementat~on of P.L. 94-142,
~QYAll landscaped
C~~ildren Act. Washington,
D.C.: Department
the Education
of Health, Edu-
cation, and Welfare. Will, M. (1984). OSERS programming for the transition of youth with disabilities: Bridging the gap from school to working life. Washington, D.C.: U.S. Department of Education, Office of Special Education and Rehabilitative Services. Wise, D.C., Bernstein, A., & Cuneo, A.Z. (1985, April 1). Part-time workers: Numbers rising, rising discord. Bwiness N’eek, 62-63.
Roland
Brown,
Michael Hibbard, and Barbara Waters University of Oregon
The recent federal policy initiative placing a national priorit\ on the transition of individuals with disabilities from school to working life has focused a great deal of attention on issues of employment of the disabled. However, most of the discussion and activities have concentrated on the supply side of the equation: training for employment, job design. and the social and economic value of work. Relatively little attention has been paid to the question of demand for workers with disabilities or the nature of the labor market they face. This paper examines the question of employment for one group of disabled, those l\?th mental retardation. We analyze the factors influencing the ability of the economy to absorb these new workers and make a series of recommendations for policy research needed to facilitate the success of the transition polic!..
The recent federal policy initiative “establishing a national priority on improving the transition from school to working life of all indiResearch for this article was supported in part b\
227
228
Brown, Hibbard,
and Waters
liduals \\-ith disabilities” (Will, 1984. p. 1) has focused a great deal of attention on the issue of emplovment of people bvith disabilities. Howe\.er, most of the discussion and activities around the transition from school to M.OI-~ has been concentrated on the suppl\. side of the equation. The potential of tvorkers l\ith disabilities has’ been examined in terms of job design and training (Bellamy, Horner, & Inman, 19i9; Hasazi, Gordon, 8~ Roe, 1983). The social and economic value of emplovment. both to people xvith disabilities and to society, ha1.e been explored (Collignon. 1982; DeFazio & Flexer, 1983; President’s Committee, 1983). However, relatively little attention has been paid to the question of demand for lvorkers with disabilities or the nature of the labor market they face. Bellamy (1983) has recently remarked that research to explore this issue further would help greatly in polic!. and program planning for the disabled. The purpose of the present article is to initiate that process. By focusing on one specific group of the disabled, those ivith mental retardation, 1j.e are able to examine the labor market they will most probably face and assess some of the factors influencing the ability of the economy to absorb these new t+,orkers. JVe first set the scene b\, briefi\. discussing the importance of emplovmeni to the communit!, adjustment of the retarded. \t’ith this’ background we take a look at economic trends that are affecting the demand for labor, especialI!, in -jobs for Mhich workers ivith mental retardation seem most likely to be competing. We look at both the number of jobs projected and at the trends which are influencing competition for‘ those jobs. The results of this analvsis provide the basis for a discussion of the politics of employment policy for people lvith disabilities. ending kvith a set of recommendations for polic!. research needed to take effective action in this area. Because the data on the population of people lvith mental retardation are so spotty, \re focus our analysis on the state of Oregon. The nature of retardation makes it reasonable to generalize from the population of Oregon \\.ith respect to such demographic characteristics as incidence, le\.el of disability, and availabilit). of services. !\vliile the econom\’ of Oregon is not typical, it has some features that make it partlcularl!. useful for this anal\psis. Oregon is deliberatel~~ moving its economy from the traditi6nal base in heal.\ manufacturing tow.ard the “high tech” and service sectors. Since much of the emphasis in jobs for workers with mental retardation is in the latter areas, Orkgon seems to be an advantageous place to tr\. to begin to understand the demand side of the transition problem:
Structural
Unemployment
of the Mentally Retarded
Employment
229
and the Disabled
It has been approximately one school generation since the passage of P.L. 94-142 and related state laws, guaranteeing all children, regardless of disability, access to free appropriate public education. One of the implicit goals of American public education, including education for the disabled, is qualification for employment. Despite this, people with disabilities have not been employed in substantial numbers. Between 50 and 80% of working age adults who report a disability are jobless (Bureau of the Census, 1982; Hasazi, Gordon, & Roe, 1985; U.S. Civil Rights Commission, 1983). It is argued that employment of the disabled will reduce their dependence-financial and otherwise-on public programs, producing two sorts of benefits. First, returns to public investment in disabled people will be increased. Second, success in employment is seen as a central component of a satisfactory adjustment to adulthood and independence. Returns to investment. With respect to the first point, the U.S. Department of Education reports (President’s Committee, 1983, p. 4) that on average the lifetime earnings of a worker with mental retardation improves by $10.40 for every dollar spent on their habilitation. Other analyses have been somewhat less optimistic, though still very positive. For example, only relating paid earnings to direct program costs, Collignon and Dodson (1975) estimated a $7.52 return per dollar invested in habilitation. Though the rates of pay of workers with mental retardation are often quite low, it is important to bear in mind that such earnings can make a significant contribution to total economic production. To illustrate, in his pathbreaking study on The Economics of Mental Retardation, Conley (1973) reported that in 1970, an 18 year old man with moderate retardation had probable lifetime earnings of $62,000, based on then-typical employment patterns of people with mental retardation. A similarly situated woman could expect lifetime earnings of $9,000. Collignon (1982) argues that if social policy were changed to assist them to maintain continuous employment, lifetime earnings of men with moderate retardation would increase by 150% over those 1970 dollar figures and those of women by 1 ,OOO%. Converting Conley’s figures to 198 1 dollars and using Collignon’s percent increases yields estimated lifetime earnings of about $363,000 for men and $232,000 for women. These figures suggest that the potential of workers with mental retardation has been underestimated. Admittedly they do not approach the expected lifetime earnings of people with a high
230
Brown,
Hibbard,
and Waters
school diploma--$660,000 for an 18 !rear- old man and S2Cl6,OOO for an 18 year old L\-oman (in 198 1 dollars, assuming a 3% inflation rate and a 2% annual increase in producti\it\.). Hol\vever, the\. compare very favorably with the lifetime earnings that an 18 vear old high school drop-out can expect. RIen with moderate retardation ivould, on average, earn nearh. 80% of the expected lifetime o f an 18 year old male high school drop-out. earnings ($460,000) LYonlen lvith moderate retardation positivel!. shine in comparison The latter can expect lifetime with female high school drop-outs. earnings of only $163,000-substantially less than the estimate for jvomen Mith moderate retardation (Bureau of the Census. 1983). Tlw social L&P of uwk. Beyond this dollar contribution is a normative consideration. The stated goal of federal transition policy is that disabled “individuals lealing the school system obtain jobs.” This goal is based on the assumption that “employllent is a critical aspect of the lives of most adults in our societ\” (\Yill. 198-l. p. 3). It reflects the importance currently placed on normal lifestyles for the disabled. The premise is that all members of societl., including disabled people, gain self-identity and a sense of personal autonomy from irork, as well as being initiated into important societal norms (Bellamy, Sheehan, Horner. & Boles, 1980: Horn, O’Donnell, A? \*itulano, 1983: Rlithaug, Horiuchi. & Fallning, 1985). U’hile the eiiclence is mixed, work is also thought to ha\,e an important added dimension for people with mental retardation: it provides access to a \,alued role and image (self-supporting lvage OI salar\, earner) that people l\ithout mental retardation take ~‘OI granted (DeFazio & Flexer. 1983; Halpern, 1985). Thus, though the precise meaning of employment to people with mental retardation ma\. be fuzz\., there seems to be no doubt that ivork contributes to their subjective qualitv of life.
The f utuw of emj.doymerlt for the clisahled. The federal transition policy eri\isions tivo l&,els of employment for disabled w.orkers. unsupported and supported, vith three bridges from school to ivork (I\-ill. 1984). First, man\. people find jobs through a personal netn.ork of‘ farnil\., friends, and co-ivorkers. It can be assumecl that some disabled p’eople find unsupported or competiti\.e emplo\,ment through such netivorks (Hasazi, et al., 19851). Others need eniplo~ment preparation programs to move into unsupported, open emplovment. Such time-limited preparation programs are a second bridge from school to work. Third, some disabled people require \.arvmg degrees of ongoing services, including long-term
Structural Unemployment of the Mentally Retarded
231
supportive employment (Bellamy, Rhodes, Bourbeau, & Mank, 1982). No matter how effective this spectrum of programming for the transition from school to work becomes, attention must also be paid to the opportunities for employment, the demand for workers. Some issues in this regard are specific to workers with mental retardation. These include equal employment opportunity, incentives to employers to offer jobs, and the impact of employment on eligibility for such critical services as health care. Other issues have to do with the broader economic environment toward which the federal transition policy is propelling these workers. These include the area to which we now turn, the labor market and competition for jobs. Workers with Mental Retardation and the Changing American Economy The labor market is going through its own kind of transition. From traditional dependence on heavy manufacturing, steel, automobiles, and so on, including the timber industry in Oregon, the high tech and service sectors of the economy are emerging as the principle sources of jobs. In Oregon, for example, from 1979 to 1982, about 40% of the jobs in occupations principally associated with the timber industry were lost. At the same time, there were large increases in jobs in high tech and services. Jobs for computer operators increased by over 90%, for programmers by 16%, for counter attendants by 55%, and for fast food preparers by over 70% (Allen, 1984). It is estimated that for every ten jobs lost in the traditional sector, nine jobs are created in the newer sectors of the economy. However, the new jobs pay a lower wage on average than those they are replacing (Bluestone, 1984; Harris, 1984). It is not an exaggeration to suggest that as General Motors becomes less important as a source of jobs, firms like McDonald’s are becoming more important. Applebaum (1983) has argued that, in the nearterm, job growth will come at the top and the bottom of the occupational distribution while opportunities in the middle shrink. As a result it is expected that there will be a serious loss of what are called family wage jobs, those paying enough to comfortably support a demographically typical family-say $20,000 per year in 1982 dollars, plus adequate health and retirement benefits. The ecun~~~c tru~~ur~ut~on, ~u~~~wage jobs, and the reservation wage. The case of Oregon from 1979 to 1984 is instructive in this regard. While it was admittedly not a typical period, with the na-
Brown, Hibbard,
232
and Waters
tional economy experiencing its deepest downturn since the 1930s a look at the details ofjob losses and gains by industry does provide an interesting insight into the future of the labor market. According to a staff report on the Oregon State Legislature’s Joint Committee on Trade and Economic Development (1984), Oregon’s economy experienced a net loss of 52,100 jobs during the years in question. More specifically, 50,800 “family wage” jobs were lost (along with a loss of 14,700 lower paying jobs). At the same time, there was a gain of 13,400 jobs in the service sector (see Table 1). In its report the Joint Committee staff foresees little growth for the well-paid moderately skilled jobs in manufacturing and construction that have formed the backbone of the Oregon economy. A continuing decline in the number of family wage jobs has serious implications for individual workers, families, and communities. For workers, the decline in higher wage jobs means fewer career opportunities and TABLE 1 Changes in Oregon Employment by industry
Jobs lost to recession 1979-1982 26,300
industry (1982 Average salaries) Lumber/wood
products
Jobs gained in recovery 1982-1984 12,100
($2 1,200) 5,200
Metals ($23,500)
22,100
Construction ($21,100)
200
Lost 3,800
Retail trade
14,!300
11,500
($9,700) Gained
4.800
6,400
All other
76,300 Joint
700
manufacturing ($20,200)
All other nonmanufacturing
6,600
Source:
8.600
Services ($13,300)
24,200
Total employment Committee
on Trade
and
Economic
Lost 5,100
Development
(1984)
Structural Unemployment of the Mentally Retarded
233
more dead end jobs. For their families, the decline means a lower standard of living and a poorer quality of life. For Oregon communities, the
decline means an impaired ability to pay for the public services-education, police and fire protection, and parks that most Oregonians enjoy (p. 4).
The loss of family wage jobs is likely to produce a ripple effect in the labor market. Because of the declining number of family wage jobs in traditional industries and the increasing number of lower paying jobs in the growth industries, job seekers are lowering their expectations with regard to the pay they are willing to accept (Wise, Bernstein, & Cuneo, 1985). The point of convergence between pay offered and pay taken is termed the reservation wage (Ehrenberg & Oaxaca, 1976). As formerly high-paid workers accept moderately paying jobs, those who were formerly paid at a moderate rate are forced to accept low pay. The result is a general reduction in the reservation wage, the lowest pay a given worker is willing to accept. The loss of family wage jobs is not unique to Oregon. Some economists anticipate the emergence of a two-tiered labor market (Applebaum, 1983). Policy analysts and other researchers have expressed concern in both the scholarly (Harris, 1984; Peitchinis, 1983) and popular press (“ ‘ High Tech’ No Panacea for Oregon Job Seekers,” 1984; “High-Tech Proving Marx,” 1984; Thurow, 1984) over the pending disappearance of the middle class. Implications for workers with mental retardation. Meanwhile, substantial numbers of young adults with mental retardation are leaving the school system each year with expectations of normalized community living, including the assumption of some type of remunerative work. While the exact number of such people is not known, an estimate is possible. A study by the U.S. Office of Education (1979) found that 1.89% of school-aged children in the U.S. in 1977-1978 had some level of mental retardation. The Rehab Group Inc. (1979), based on a study of FY 1978 state developmental disability plans, estimated that 2.47% of the U.S. population has some level of mental retardation. These rates roughly bracket the conventional wisdom of 2%. According to the 1980 census, there are somewhat over 56 million school-aged children in the U.S. Assuming they are about equally divided among the thirteen school grades (K- 12) (which they are not; for a variety of reasons each grade level shrinks a bit), the number of young adults with mental
Brown, Hibbard, and Waters retardation leaving school can be estimated as ~6,000,OOO x .W i 13 = 85,100. The census found about 61 i,OOO children of school age in Oregon. The same formula (6lf,OOO X .02 / 13). shows that about 1,000 voung adult Oregonians with mental retardation leave school each Gear. In an economv apparently moving toward underemployment and a reduction in the reseivation fvage, what can these new workers expect from the labor market? First, it is important to consider that they are a very small fraction of the total national civilian labor force of over 100 million workers and of the Oregon civilian labor force of 1.3 million (Bureau of the Census, 1983). On one hand their small numbers may be an advantage. As a group they do not represent a threat to the balance of the labor market. On the other hand, their small numbers may make it difficult for them to gain the hearing they need. Employers and workers caught up in the turmoil of a transitional economy may not fully appreciate the special needs of one small segment of society. Second, concern with the entry of workers with mental retardation into the labor market requires consideration of specific employment trends. These workers are not competing across the full job spectrum. They are channeled into occupations xhere, it is believed, their personal limitations will be least problematic. Let us look briefly at trends in these occupations. Of the 20 occupations projected to have the greatest demand for employment in Oregon between 1982 and 1990 (Oregon State Employment Division, 1984), 4 are among those in \\.hichworkers t&h mental retardation have historically been representedkitchen helpers, housekeepers, fast food preparers, and janitors (see Table 2). AI1 these occupations taken together are projected to grow by a little more than 9,000 jobs during the study period (19$2-1990). During the same period about ~,OOO young adults with mental retardation will be leaving school (based on the abose projection of about 1,000 per year). Bearing in mind the decline in the reservation \vage which is rippling through the Oregon labor market, it appears that the competition for these 9,000 jobs \rill be heavy. Even allowing for additional openings that \
Structural Unemployment
of the Mentally TABLE
Retarded
235
2
Occupations in Oregon with Greatest Demand, 1982-1990* Occupation Sales representative Waiter/waitress Truck driver Secretar) General clerk Bookkeeper, hand Cashier Carpenter Janitor/porter/cleaner Xurses aideiorderl) Bartender Food prep, fast food Sales clerk Nurse, professional WelderMamecutter Cleaner, housekeeping Kitchen helper Electrical assembler ,4ccounting clerk Store manager *Total
wage and salarv
1982 Employment
1990 Employment
Set new jobs
44,700 19,990 20,580 25,360 19,790 13,100 18,560 5,360 18,790 11,770 10,570 10,530 12,570 15,170 4,550 6,980 10,680 3,850 9,900 8,180
55,770 24,910 25,300 29,840 23,730 16,150 2 1,420 8,150 21,500 14,460 13,100 12,970 14,980 17,570 6.660 9,000 12,660 5,730 11,x0 9,990
11,020 4,920 4,720 4.480 3.940 3,050 2,860 2,790 2,710 2,690 2,530 2,440 2,410 2,400 2,110 2,020 1,980 1.880 1,880 1,910
employment:
1990 = l.li6.080 1982 = 977.530 Set new iobs =
Source:
Oregon
State
Employment
Division
198..550
(1984).
been represented (see Table 3). All of these occupations taken together are projected to grow by about 1.7 million jobs, while the number of young adults with mental retardation leaving school (based on the estimate of about 85,000 per year) will be about 1.1 million during the same period. Again, it appears that competition for these jobs may be fierce. To summarize, the goal of federal policy is a job for each disabled person leaving school. The value of jobs for the disabled, economically and socially, is undeniable. However, the impact of trends in the economy of the labor market raises questions about the feasibility of the policy goal and the possibility of clashes between disabled workers and underemployed workers who are facing a reduced reservation wage. Each unskilled and semiskilled job is actively competed for by many eager workers who want or need the near-minimum wage offered. Add to their number the young
236
Brown, TABLE Forty Occupations
Hibbard,
3
with Largest Job Growth,
Occupation Building custodian Cashier Secretart Generalclerk, office Sales clerk Nurse, registered N!aiter/waitress Teacher, kindergartenlelementar~ Truckdriver Nurses aide/orderly Sales representative, technical Accountant and auditor Auto mechanic Supervisor of blue-collar workers Kitchen helper Guard and doorkeeper Food preparation and service worker. fast food Store manager Carpenter Electrical/electronic technician Licensed practical nurse Computer systems analyst Electrical engineer Computer programmer Slaintenance repair, general utility Helper, trades Receptionist Electrician Physician Clerical supervisor Computer operator Sales representative, non-technical Laivver Stock clerk Typist Delivery and route worker Bookkeeper, hand Cook. restaurant Bank teller Cook, short order/specialt~/fast food Source: Silvesux, Lukasiewicz, and Einstein (1983)
and Waters
1982-1995
Net change (in 000s)
% Change
779 744 719 696 685 642 562 511 425 423 386 344 324 319 305 300
27.5 47.4 29 .\ 5 29.6 23.5 48.9 33.8 37.4 26..i 34.8 29.3 40.2 38.3 26.6 3.5.9 47.3
297 292 247 222 220 217 209 205 193 190 189 173 163 162 160 160 159 156 1% 153 152 149 142 141
36.7 30. I 28.6 60.7 37.1 x.5.3 65.3 76.9 27.8 31.2 48.8 31.8 33.0 34.6 75.8 2 7 I4 34.3 18.X 15.7 10. *.. ‘1 15.9 42.3 30.0 3”..“.. ‘>
Structural Unemployment of the Mentally Retarded adults with disabilities who have skills and training focused these jobs and the result is many points of potential conflict.
237 on
Discussion To deny the disabled entry into the labor force is not a solution to the problems raised here. It would be in direct conflict with the movement toward deinstitutionalization, normalization, and least restrictive environments-the central components of current social policy. Moreover, as we have seen, the policy can produce significant benefits to people with disabilities and to society as a whole. However, the potential for conflict, inherent in the competitive aspect of remunerative work, requires further investigation if a destructive backlash is to be avoided. This concern has been nicely articulated by Cook (1979): Who, should be helped? Services to the disabled, including employment services, must pass a political test of sorts. Such services are a part of the social welfare system created by legislation. One of the inputs to such legislation is public opinion. In the best traditions of various rights movements in the U.S., people with disabilities and their advocates have used the justice of their cause as the basis of a political strategy to establish their position in the social welfare system. Along with such other groups as the elderly and youth, the disabled rights movement has gained a sympathetic public ear. The result has been a channeling of social welfare resources to them. The demand for social welfare resources always exceeds the supply. Even in the best of times allocative decisions must be made among competing interests. There are more just causes than available resources. As the movement toward normalization takes hold, and especially as more and more people with disabilities compete successfully in the labor market, there is a risk that the arguments for special social welfare programs may become less compelling. For example, it is widely assumed that when general unemployment goes up workers with mental retardation are among the first to lose their jobs. However, Halpern (1973) has shown that while this may be generally true, exceptions can be found “in those fortunate situations where (workers with mental retardation) have been the recipients of effective prevocational training and placement services” (p. 127). The availability of such services depends, in important part, on public opinion. As the reservation wage declines the public may be more likely to see workers with disabilities as a new group of job competitors than as people deserving of services. That is, the very success of the services designed to produce normalization may lead to loss of public support for them. As
238
Brown,
Hibbard,
and Waters
Comes (1984) has commented, “policies i\.hich concentrate on the similarities rather than the differences betlveen disabled people and other disadvantaged groups are iI1 effect a denial of the case that disabled people are entitled to specialized assistance in the labor market” (p. 4.5). The pressure for normalization conflicts lvith the political strategy of the disabled rights mo\.ement precisel!. at the-job nexus. The loftv federal police. goal of’ emplo\ment for l\,orkers \\.ith disabilities f‘aces a formidable barrier. Public support is likeli- to be eroded by the effects on labor markets of the upheaval’ in the econom\z. Economic development must therefore become an important .aspect of the transition issue, in t\vo lvays. First, the potential conflict bettveen displaced lvorkers and Fvorkers rvith disabilities is an outgrowth of direct competition for jobs and can be reduced only through general economic de\,elopment efforts. Those concerned tvith the rights of the disabled would do M.ell to find wa)‘s of linking the issue of employment for Lvorkers \t.ith disabilities lvith the broad issue of structural unemplo)ment and jobs for all. Second, there is a specific need for economic de\,elopment aimed at creating jobs for lvorkers lvith disabilities. This latter is. of’ course. most germane to those directly invol\.ecl in transition research. The sorts of services and assistance to i\.hich Halpern and Cornes address themselves only become relevant i\.hen jobs are available for workers j+.ith disabilities. Thus, in conjunction \vith the current and ongoing research on vocational training for people lvith disabilities it tvould be helpful to carry out broader and more detailed research on present and future labor markets. Let us consider one example. CYill’s ( 1984) three bridges fr-om school to lvorking life seem to assume a relatiifelv stable labor market, a notion that most labor economists rvouid reject. It is probable that brorkers \\ith disabilities w.ill face shifts in the demand for \.arious \rocational skills similar to those experienced b\- the labor force in general. The implication is that Lvorkers with disabilities ma\. cross \\‘ill’s second bridge-time-limited services-more than on& over the course of their Lcork lives. They ma\. need to be retrained several times as the demands of the job market change. .Mso. man\. more \\.orkers ivith disabilities mav be in need of ongoing services in the form of job development than has been anticipated. -To full\, understand the implications of these dynamics, researchers need to look closelv at the factors influencing the level and specific characteristics of’ the demand for v.orkers Lvith disabilities. There are a variety of related policy research issues in this Lrein. Mvith regard to job de\relopment, questions center around
Structural
Unemployment
of the Mentally
Retarded
239
how best to proceed in the delicate political environment of structural unemployment. Should employers be offered incentives to hire workers with disabilities? Should means be found to induce entrepreneurs to develop firms intended to employ primarily (or exclusively) workers with disabilities? Should efforts be made to introduce enclaves of workers with disabilities into ordinary working environments? Would it be worthwhile to engage in research and development on product lines that lend themselves to production by workers with disabilities? A similar range of issues arises concerning the provision of employment-related services to workers with disabilities. How can such services best be provided? Is there some political limit to the level of services that will be supported? How does this limit vary, say with the unemployment level, the nature of the employment engaged in by workers with disabilities, or the nature of their workplace? To be most effective and efficient, should these services be based in the workplace, in an education and training facility, in a social service agency, or some combination? Finally, with regard to the social policies intended to promote job development and employment services, how do the incentive structures for providing services vary among the key players? That is, how can we best structure policy so that there are positive incentives at all levels-federal, state, and local governmental agencies; and workers with disabilities and service contractors; employers; their families-for employment of people with disabilities? To conclude, the importance of economic and employment trends to the success of the transition policy cannot be overstated. The continuing political success of advocacy by and for the disabled depends on an economy in which direct job competition between workers with disabilities and others is minimized. The transition policy itself depends on the availability of jobs appropriate for workers with disabilities. In both cases economic development is an important issue to be addressed by researchers concerned with disability policy, particularly given the unsettled state of the American and world economy. References D. (1984, November). Occupational impacts of the recession. Oregon Labor Oregon State Employment Division, 5-6. Applebaum, E. (1983, June). The future of work: Expectations and realities. Technolo0 Ej Employment. Testimony presented at the Joint Hearings, Committee on Science, Research, and Technology and the Sub-Committee on Science and Technology of the Committee on the Budget, U.S. House of Representatives. Allen,
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