The varieties of chance in scientific research

Medical

Hypotheses

THE VARIETIES

5:

737-742,

OF CHANCE

1979.

IN SCIENTIFIC

J. H. Austin, University of Colorado Denver, Colorado 80262

RESEARCH

Medical

Center,

4200 East Ninth

Avenue,

ABSTRACT Four kinas of luck can be defined --- one that is pure “blind” luck, and three others that are influenced to some degree by certain behavioral characteristics. The term, altamirage is introduced to call attention to that special personal quality by which good luck is prompted as a result of personally distinctive actions In contrast, serendipity involves finding valuable things as a result (Chance IV). of happy accidents (Chance I), general exploratory behavior (Chance II), or sagaThe most novel scientific discoveries occur when several vacity (Chance Ill). rities

of chance

Key Words: mirage.

coincide.

luck,

behavior,

Index Medicus Medical Subject Personality, Creativeness

serendipity,

Headings:

scientific

Philosophy,

discoveries,

Medical;

chance,

History,

alta-

Medical;

INTRODUCTION The key role of chance in scientific discovery was well pointed out years ago by the great pioneering physiologist, Claude Bernard. He phrased it this way; “Experimental ideas are very often born by chance as a result of fortuitous observations. Nothing is more common, and it is really the simplest way to begin a piece of scientific work. We walk, so to speak, in the realm of science, and we pursue what happens to present itself accidentally to our eyes. ‘I (1) What is chance? If you look up the word in a dictionary, you will find chance it is something fortuitous, usually something good, defined in the following terms: that happens unpredictably and without human intention. Chance is unintentional, it is capricious, but we need not conclude that chance is immune from human intervention. In fact, chance enters into scientific research in at least four different ways. You could surely find many more than four ways to classify chance, but the

737

ways used herein For example, exploratory

activity

volve distinctive act with them.

were found the four

to illustrate kinds

certain

of chance

and a different

kind

principles

that affect everyone.

each have a different

of sensory

receptivity.

kind They

of motor also in-

personality traits and differ in the way you, as a person, interThese various aspects of chance are summarized in the table. Table

1

Various Aspects and Kinds of Good Luck Personsffty You Need

ttafts

Good Luck Is the Result Of

Cfassfffcatfon of Luck

An Accident

Chance

1

“Blind” luck. Chance happens, and nothing about it is directly attributable to you, the recipient.

None

General Exploratory Behavior

Chance

II

The Kettering Principle. Chance favors those in motion. Events are brought together to form “happy accidents” when you diffusely apply your energies in motions that are typically nonspecific.

Curiosity about many things, persistence, willingness to experiment and to explore.

Sagacity

Chance

III

The Pasteur Principle. Chance favors the prepared mind. Some special receptivity born from past experience permits you to discern a new fact or to perceive ideas in a new relationship.

A background of knowledge, based on your abilities to observe, remember, and quickly form significant new associations.

Personalized Action

Chance

IV

The Disraeli Principle. Chance favors the individualized action. Fortuitous events occur when you behave in ways that are highly distinctive of you as a person.

Distinctive hobbies, personal life styles, and activities peculiar to y& as an individual, especially when they operate in domains seemingly far removed from the area of the discovery.

Efements Involved

THE Chance

I is accidental

---

VARIETIES the pure

OF CHANCE blind

luck that comes with no effort

on

your part. If, for example, you are sitting playing bridge at a table of four, it’s “in the cards” for you to receive a hand of thirteen spades, but statisticians tell us it will occur on an average only once in 635 billion deals. You will ultimately draw this lucky hand, but it may involve a rather longer wait than most have time for. Chance II evokes the kind of luck Charles Kettering, the automotive engineer, had in mind when he said: “Keep on going, and the chances are you will stumble on something, perhaps when you are least expecting it. I have never heard of anyone stumbling on something sitting down.”

738

Consistent luck

runs

out

is still

but action less,

motion

if you

and

tellect.

is what

persist.

your

primary

depends

on your

Of course,

if you

in to influence

your

only

goal,

wouldn’t

with

the above

you

So Chance of action

move

results want

II springs

combinations.

keeps

on going, events

you

principle

the

tiptoes

tunity

exists,

III

involves

Pasteur

the

but

it would

Fleming

word

that

evokes

ing

unexpected

good

behavior

(Chance

English

the

legendary

tales

encountered

lance,

we have

solely

some distinctive

his

and

level

stick

into

to-

motion

events.

and

If you

but many

fully

others,

this

of

kinetic

to the

principle

came

which

term

had

Walpole,

Princes down

of it as a result, receptivity

further

the feeling

that

pre-

Alexander

in the first

the facility

for

I),

He used (Ceylon),

dish

to

unexpec-

In today’s luck

We have

Walpole

by

reference

who quite

the good

The

explora-

coined

it with

to mean

testimony

three encounter-

general was

travels.

is involved.

if we need

the

the culture

on their

term

Louis

only when

onto

not an ability.

by which

Chance

recipient.

Serendipity

in 1754.

serendipity

of sagacity,

fallen

(Chance

Ill).

fortune

equipped

favors

involved

of Serendip

of good

uniquely

staphylococci.

accident

(Chance

the oppor-

in 1928,

describes

of :

result

instances

of smell,

unique

the adjacent

Blind

the clue,

its significance.

of his

mold

of a role.

person

“Chance

or sagacity

personal

one grasp

of the operations

as the

more

presents

he said:

The

watered

is acuteness

par-

that

comes

tended

to

wished

to emphasize

archaic

meaning

of the word’s

of

entirely

connotation. Yet

we are

left

English Chance

Disraeli,

fate.” forge

with The

underlying

them

we each

principle

now

to sagacity.

principle

we call

actions

collide

and,

basal

we may term

when

killed

Horace

of the element

counterpart up the

II),

We think

that

and

that

by that

and

the penicillin

of the Three

by accident.

sensory

example

luck,

usually

sight

activities,

swing

between

playing

Chance

discernment

time

the quality

many

lose

sagacity

and

all

man-of-letters,

tedly

will

and

were your desert.

motor

some of them,

starts

except

It is serendipity.

tory the

II,

II may enter

A certain

does

of collisions

in motion,

person

be missed

something

of chance.

that

anyone,

exploit

those

it conceptually,

classic

secreted

One kinds

can then

receptivity

recognized

have

Chance

the better, ideas

by camouflage.

it for

‘I The

areas,

generalized

are,

someone,

individual

visualize

a special

mind.

likely

in random

favors

hidden

characterized

pared must

Ill,

it,

they

un-

in Chance

Principle.

in softly,

to recognize

is that

implicit

The action is ill-defined, restenergy, not on your conscious in-

energetic,

the number

you

its premise

For example, if orchids looking for them in the harsh

your

increase

Kettering

In Chance luck

in more

When

Chance

II;

is also

fruitfully,

brings

together,

cannot.

around

the freer

up the pot”,

a few

to release

from

“stirs

he will

not results.

to go out

qualification,

Chance

of the chase

need

more

in fresh

link

goal,

basic

gether

course,

distinguishes

An element

our

as follows:

own

Prime IV when

something

Minister he noted

the practical destiny,

Chance

favors

the

739

that

politician,

at least

is lacking

Benjamin

“we make appreciated

to some degree.

individualized

---

the motor

Disraeli

summed

our

We might

action.

fortunes

that This

by our restate is the

fourth element in good luck , . . an active, but unintentional, subtle personal prompting of it. Chance IV is the kind of luck that develops during a probing action that has a distinctive personal flavor. It comes to you because you behave in a certain way. It is one-man-made, and is as personal as your signature. Being highly personal, it is not easily understood by someone else the first time around. The outside observer may have to go underground into subterranean recesses of the personality. Neurologists may be a little more comfortable with the concept because so much of the nervous system we work with exists as anatomically

separate sensory and motor divisions. So, some natural separation does exist and underlies the distinction: Chance Ill concerned with personal sensory receptivity; its counterpart, Chance IV involved with personal motor behavior. In Chance II, anyone might complete the lucky connections as a happy byproduct of a kind of circular stirring of the pot. In contrast, the links of Chance IV will be drawn together and fused only by one quixotic rider cantering in on his own home-made hobby horse to intercept the problem at an odd angle. Chance IV does resist straight logic and takes on something Spanish fiction.

of the eccentric

flavor

of Cervantes’

Indeed, something about the quality of Chance IV is reminiscent of a mirage. Like a mirage, it is elusive, difficult to get a firm grip on. It tends to recede as we pursue it, and advance as we step back. But we still accept a mirage when we see it, because we vaguely understand the physical basis for the phenomenon. A lies next to the earth, and it strongly heated layer of air, less dense than usual, bends the light rays as they pass through. Elsewhere, there has been introduced and discussed the origin of a term, altamirage, which may be used to convey the quality underlying Chance IV (2). It is defined as the facility for encountering unexpected good luck as the result of Altamirage is not included within the boundaries of highly individualized action. serendipity. It lies outside because it emphasizes the role of personal action in However, like serendipity, it is a compound word. It is derived both chance. the cave in Spain unearthed a century ago after an enfrom mirage and Altamira: terprising hunting dog fell down into it while searching for game.* It was later, in this same cave of Altamira, that Don Marcelino de Sautuola, an unusual amateur archeologist, was looking for flint chippings one day in 1879, when he and his daughter accidentally discovered magnificent cave paintings, the first ever known to Their full story is too long to introduce have been painted by primitive man. It will serve our present purpose solely to observe that the events of Altahere. when de Sautuola’s heated personal mira took shape like a shimmering mirage, quest interacted with the invisible principles of chance we know exist, yet cannot While pursuing his hobby, the Science of Archeology, he happened on Art. touch. What psychological

*Curiously, other dog

determinants

in 1932, the French (far fetched, indeed).

enter

into the varieties

cave of Lascaux

740

of chance?

was also discovered

Chance

by still

an-

I

is completely enter

impersonal.

in the other

You can’t

forms of chance.

traits only start to influence it. Personality To evoke Chance II, you will need a persistent

curiosity about many things coupled with an energetic willingness to experiment and explore. To arrive at the discernment involved in Chance Ill, you must have a sufficient background of firm knowledge plus special abilities in observing, remembering, recalling, and quickly forming significant new associations. Chance if not eccentric hobbies, personal life IV may favor you if you have distinctive, styles and motor behaviors. The farther apart your more personal activities are from the other professional area you are pursuing, the more strikingly novel will be the creative product when the two meet. Moreover, the most novel, if not the greatest, discoveries occur when several varieties of chance coincide. This is best exemplified in the life of Sir Alexander principle, the Fleming Principle, Fleming

and in his discovery

of the effect of the penicillin

mold.

(2)

CONCLUSIONS No investigator

should

ever

count on luck,

but neither

should

one discount

it. Knowledge of the structure of luck may, at the very least, help one avoid doing luck; Chance II is anyoneanything to discourage it. Thus; Chance I is anyone’s in-motion’s luck. Chance Ill is luck that comes from one man’s discernment; Chance IV is luck that flows from one man’s actions. REFERENCES 1)

Bernard C. Introduction ‘a I’Etude et Fils, Paris, 1865, p 266.

2)

Austin J. Chase, Chance, Columbia University Press,

de la M&lecine

and Creativity; The New York, 1978.

741

Expe?imentale.

Lucky

Art

Bailler

of Novelty,