- Email: [email protected]
The Way Forward
C H A P T E R
31
The Way Forward: Supporting Greener Economies It is difficult to say how much of the world’s agricultural lands already operate under forms of more sustainable agricultural production. There has been significant progress both for reducing negative impacts on natural capital and environmental services and for creating systems with the potential to improve all forms of renewable capital assets (natural, social, and human). However, it is clear that considerably more food will need to be produced as populations continue to grow and food consumption patterns converge on the diets typical to affluent countries and societies, regardless of how much progress is made on reducing waste in food systems (Foresight, 2011; Pretty, 2013). The sustainable intensification of agricultural systems should thus be seen as part of a wide range of initiatives and efforts to create greener economies. Green growth and the greener economies have become important targets for national and international organizations, including the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (2011), the United Nations Environment Programme (2011), the World Bank (2012), the Rio 1 20 conference (UNCSD, 2012), and the Global Green Growth Institute (2012). The United Nations Environment Programme (2011) defines the green economy as “resulting in human wellbeing and social equity, while significantly reducing environmental risks and ecological scarcities.” Deep political commitment is rare, even though Stern (2007) pointed to the economic value of early action with respect to climate change: the cost of stabilizing all greenhouse gases was a “significant but manageable” 1% of global gross domestic product (GDP), but a failure to reduce emissions would result in annual costs of 5% 20% of GDP. There are policies actively promoting greener agendas in countries such as China, Denmark, Ethiopia, South Africa, and South Korea: such a pursuit of greener economies could lead to a new industrial revolution (Stern and Rydge, 2012) and promote further sustainable intensification of agriculture. China has invested $100 billion since 2000 in ecocompensation schemes, mostly in forestry and watershed management. It has developed and implemented a policy framework for sustainable intensification (Box 31.1). A total of 65 countries have implemented feed-in tariffs to encourage renewable energy generation (Renewables, 2012), and by 2010, renewable energy sources had grown to supply 16.7% of
Sustainable Food and Agriculture DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/B978-0-12-812134-4.00031-5
273
Copyright © 2019 The Food and Agriculture organization of the United Nations (FAO) Co Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
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31. THE WAY FORWARD: SUPPORTING GREENER ECONOMIES
BOX 31.1
A P O L I C Y F R A M E W O R K F O R S U S TA I N A B L E I N T E N S I F I C AT I O N I N C H I N A The challenge of agricultural intensification in China is centered on its unique confluence between demand and resource availability: the Chinese agrifood sector meets most of the food needs of 20% of the world’s population and produces 25% of the world’s grain using less than 9% of the world’s arable land, with per capita landholdings among the lowest in the world. In 2015, China’s grain output reached a historic record of 621.4 million tons following 12 years of relatively continuous growth, even though there were serious regional or seasonal droughts in some years. All major crop and livestock products have experienced significant growth over the past three and a half decades since the reforms began in 1978, with some subsectors in agriculture growing faster than others. From 1978 to 2015, the output of grain (rice, wheat, maize, beans) and tubers more than doubled, from 304.8 million tons to 621.4 million tons. Meat (pork, beef, lamb) output increased more than sevenfold, from 12.05 million tons in 1980 to 86.25 million tons in 2015. Vegetable and fruit output also increased at a very quick pace, and there was a consequent boost in the amount of food available for everyone in China. Per capita availability of grain in China increased from 319 kg in 1978 to 453 kg in 2015, meat from 9 to 48 kg, and aquatic products from 4.6 to 49 kg despite the population increasing from 987 million to 1.37 billion in the same period. Yet, existing intensification has come at a cost: groundwater pollution from the overuse of nitrogen fertilizers, pollution from
intensive livestock production, degraded soil, and low efficiency of input use and therefore low competiveness. At the same time, food demand is increasing apace, driven by the change to a more proteinbased diet. Rapid economic growth, urbanization, and market development are key factors underlining the changes in agricultural structure. Rising incomes and urban expansion have boosted the demand for meat, fruit, and other nonstaple foods. These changes have stimulated sharp shifts in the structure of agriculture. One significant change has been the rapid growth in livestock and fishery production. Total meat output increased from 12.05 million tons in 1980 to 86.25 million tons in 2015; aquatic products increased from 4.5 million tons in 1980 to 65 million tons in 2014. In terms of contribution to total value of agricultural outputs, the share of crops declined from 76% in 1980 to 54% in 2015, while the share of livestock increased from 18% in 1980 to 28% in 2015. The share of fisheries increased most rapidly, from just 1.7% in 1980 to 10% in 2015. The major drivers of agricultural production in the past three and half decades include: (1) encouraging policies that mobilize farmers’ motivation in agricultural production; (2) technological progress; (3) income growth and urbanization as drivers of both qualitative and quantitative changes in agricultural production; and (4) agricultural productivity growth and the increasing use of agricultural inputs (Norse and Ju, 2015). However, these driving forces are also bringing about certain constraints to
II. CURRENT APPROACHES TO SUSTAINABLE FOOD AND AGRICULTURE
THE WAY FORWARD: SUPPORTING GREENER ECONOMIES
BOX 31.1 the further development of agricultural production. The introduction of the household responsibility system has been a major driver of increased agricultural production in the early stage of rural reform. However, small-scale and fragmented household farming plots have become a barrier for further improvement in resource use efficiency, mechanization, and market competitiveness (Huang and Ding, 2016; Ju et al., 2016). Intensive land and water resource use with high input has caused degradation of natural resource bases and environmental externalities (Norse and Ju, 2015; Lu et al., 2015). In recognition of these challenges, the Chinese Government has started implementing a comprehensive strategy to modernize China’s agriculture while increasing efficiency and improving environmental outcomes: the zero-growth policy in fertilizer use by 2020 is one of the important components of the strategy, as is land consolidation (Lu, 2016). Five key concepts inform China’s policy framework for development over the next 5 years include: innovation, coordination, greening, opening up, and sharing. The 2016 No. 1 Central Document, released on January 27, 2016 (Xinhua, 2016), gives a broad picture of China’s strategy for sustainable intensification. This covers the following key aspects: 1. Consolidating the foundation for modern agriculture, enhancing the quality, efficiency, and competitiveness of agriculture. China will improve the quality and competitiveness of its
(cont’d) agricultural products through highquality farmland and professional farmers, catering to the demands of modern agriculture. This will entail developing high-quality farmland, advancing irrigation, strengthening innovation and extension systems (including that of the seed industry), coordinating use of resources and markets at home and abroad, and making full use of large family farm operations, including by professionalizing family farms. 2. Protecting resources and the ecosystem and promoting green agricultural development. This will be achieved by strengthening actions to protect resources and increase efficiency in their utilization, accelerating the pace at which environmental problems are tackled, and finally by instituting a food safety strategy. 3. Promoting the integration of primary, secondary, and tertiary industries and raising farm incomes by promoting logistics, markets, and the profit-sharing mechanism in rural regions, including the processing of agricultural products, rural tourism, and agritourism. 4. Promoting integrated rural urban development by accelerating the development of rural infrastructure, raising the level of public services, improving rural and agricultural insurance services, and encouraging financial institutions to extend credit to agricultural businesses.
II. CURRENT APPROACHES TO SUSTAINABLE FOOD AND AGRICULTURE
275
276
31. THE WAY FORWARD: SUPPORTING GREENER ECONOMIES
global energy consumption, with the fastest growing sector being photovoltaic systems (solar PV). This alone could have a significant impact on remote rural communities, and thus lead to changes in agricultural and food systems. The revenue of many poorer countries is absorbed by the costs of oil imports: for example, India, Kenya, and Senegal spend 45% 50% of their export earnings on energy imports. Investing in renewable energy benefits these three countries by saving export earnings, increasing self-reliance, and improving domestic natural capital. Kenya has introduced feed-in tariffs on energy generated from wind, biomass, hydro, biogas, solar, and geothermal sources from 2008 (UNEP, 2011). In this way, a greener economy that dramatically changes aspirations and consumption patterns by increasing consumption by the current poor and reducing that of the affluent, increases well-being, and protects natural capital is not likely to greatly resemble the current economy. Relevant to all sectors of economies will be important questions about material consumption, in particular how modes of consumption based on “enough not more” can be created, resulting in mass behaviors of “enoughness” (O’Neill et al., 2010). In this way, the sustainable intensification of agricultural systems could both promote transitions toward greener economies as well as benefit from progress in other sectors. As noted by the NRC (2010) “sustainability is best evaluated not as a particular end state, but rather a process that moves farming systems along a trajectory towards greater sustainability.” This suggests that no single policy instrument, research output, or institutional configuration will work to maximize sustainability and productivity over spatially variable conditions and over time. The NRC (2010) made a series of recommendations regarding public research for public goods and integration of agencies to address multidisciplinary challenges in agriculture. It was recommended that the national (in this case, the US Department of Agriculture) and state agricultural institutions should continue publicly funded research and development of key farming practices for improving sustainability and productivity, and that federal and state agricultural research and development programs should deliberately pursue integrated research and extension on farming systems, with a focus on whole agroecosystems. It was further suggested that all agricultural and environmental agencies, universities, and farmer-led organizations should develop a longterm research and extension initiative to understand and shape the aggregate effect of farming at landscape scale. Researchers were encouraged to adopt farmer-participatory research and farmer-managed trials as critical components of their research. At the national level, there should finally be investment in studies to understand how market structures, policies, and knowledge institutions provide opportunities or barriers to expanding sustainable practices in farming. This is particularly important in enabling farmers to navigate the complex and evolving trade-offs between resource conservation and increasing farmers’ incomes through participation in markets. Policies designed to conserve resources and stabilize resource availability and farmers’ incomes may not work well over time given market imperatives to maximize resource use and incomes (see, for example, Bharucha et al., 2014). In the context of developing countries, the 30 African cases of sustainable intensification (Pretty et al., 2011, 2014) have illustrated key lessons regarding policy challenges. These projects contained many different technologies and practices, yet had similar approaches to working with farmers, involving agricultural research, building social infrastructure,
II. CURRENT APPROACHES TO SUSTAINABLE FOOD AND AGRICULTURE
THE WAY FORWARD: SUPPORTING GREENER ECONOMIES
277
working in novel partnerships, and developing new private sector options. Only in some of the cases were national policies directly influential. These projects indicated that there were seven key requirements for such scaling up of sustainable intensification to larger numbers of farmers: 1. Scientific and farmer input into technologies and practices that combine crops and livestock with appropriate agroecological and agronomic management. 2. Creation of novel social infrastructure that results in both flows of information and builds trust among individuals and agencies. 3. Improvement of farmer knowledge and capacity through the use of farmer field schools, videos, and modern information communication technologies. 4. Engagement with the private sector to supply goods and services (e.g., veterinary services, manufacturers of implements, seed multipliers, milk and tea collectors) and development of farmers’ capacity to add value through their own business development. 5. A focus particularly on women’s educational, microfinance, and agricultural technology needs, and building of their unique forms of social capital. 6. Ensuring that microfinance and rural banking are available to farmer groups. 7. Ensure public sector support to lever up the necessary public goods in the form of innovative and capable research systems, dense social infrastructure, appropriate economic incentives (subsidies, price signals), legal status for land ownership, and improved access to markets through transport infrastructure. However, no single project or program will be able to address all seven of these requirements at once, and thus a generic need persists for an integrated approach that seeks positive synergies over time. Despite great progress having been made, and now the emergence of the term “sustainable intensification” and its component parts, much remains to be done to ensure agricultural systems worldwide not only increase productivity fast enough, but also guarantee only positive impacts on natural and social capital.
II. CURRENT APPROACHES TO SUSTAINABLE FOOD AND AGRICULTURE
31
The Way Forward: Supporting Greener Economies It is difficult to say how much of the world’s agricultural lands already operate under forms of more sustainable agricultural production. There has been significant progress both for reducing negative impacts on natural capital and environmental services and for creating systems with the potential to improve all forms of renewable capital assets (natural, social, and human). However, it is clear that considerably more food will need to be produced as populations continue to grow and food consumption patterns converge on the diets typical to affluent countries and societies, regardless of how much progress is made on reducing waste in food systems (Foresight, 2011; Pretty, 2013). The sustainable intensification of agricultural systems should thus be seen as part of a wide range of initiatives and efforts to create greener economies. Green growth and the greener economies have become important targets for national and international organizations, including the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (2011), the United Nations Environment Programme (2011), the World Bank (2012), the Rio 1 20 conference (UNCSD, 2012), and the Global Green Growth Institute (2012). The United Nations Environment Programme (2011) defines the green economy as “resulting in human wellbeing and social equity, while significantly reducing environmental risks and ecological scarcities.” Deep political commitment is rare, even though Stern (2007) pointed to the economic value of early action with respect to climate change: the cost of stabilizing all greenhouse gases was a “significant but manageable” 1% of global gross domestic product (GDP), but a failure to reduce emissions would result in annual costs of 5% 20% of GDP. There are policies actively promoting greener agendas in countries such as China, Denmark, Ethiopia, South Africa, and South Korea: such a pursuit of greener economies could lead to a new industrial revolution (Stern and Rydge, 2012) and promote further sustainable intensification of agriculture. China has invested $100 billion since 2000 in ecocompensation schemes, mostly in forestry and watershed management. It has developed and implemented a policy framework for sustainable intensification (Box 31.1). A total of 65 countries have implemented feed-in tariffs to encourage renewable energy generation (Renewables, 2012), and by 2010, renewable energy sources had grown to supply 16.7% of
Sustainable Food and Agriculture DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/B978-0-12-812134-4.00031-5
273
Copyright © 2019 The Food and Agriculture organization of the United Nations (FAO) Co Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
274
31. THE WAY FORWARD: SUPPORTING GREENER ECONOMIES
BOX 31.1
A P O L I C Y F R A M E W O R K F O R S U S TA I N A B L E I N T E N S I F I C AT I O N I N C H I N A The challenge of agricultural intensification in China is centered on its unique confluence between demand and resource availability: the Chinese agrifood sector meets most of the food needs of 20% of the world’s population and produces 25% of the world’s grain using less than 9% of the world’s arable land, with per capita landholdings among the lowest in the world. In 2015, China’s grain output reached a historic record of 621.4 million tons following 12 years of relatively continuous growth, even though there were serious regional or seasonal droughts in some years. All major crop and livestock products have experienced significant growth over the past three and a half decades since the reforms began in 1978, with some subsectors in agriculture growing faster than others. From 1978 to 2015, the output of grain (rice, wheat, maize, beans) and tubers more than doubled, from 304.8 million tons to 621.4 million tons. Meat (pork, beef, lamb) output increased more than sevenfold, from 12.05 million tons in 1980 to 86.25 million tons in 2015. Vegetable and fruit output also increased at a very quick pace, and there was a consequent boost in the amount of food available for everyone in China. Per capita availability of grain in China increased from 319 kg in 1978 to 453 kg in 2015, meat from 9 to 48 kg, and aquatic products from 4.6 to 49 kg despite the population increasing from 987 million to 1.37 billion in the same period. Yet, existing intensification has come at a cost: groundwater pollution from the overuse of nitrogen fertilizers, pollution from
intensive livestock production, degraded soil, and low efficiency of input use and therefore low competiveness. At the same time, food demand is increasing apace, driven by the change to a more proteinbased diet. Rapid economic growth, urbanization, and market development are key factors underlining the changes in agricultural structure. Rising incomes and urban expansion have boosted the demand for meat, fruit, and other nonstaple foods. These changes have stimulated sharp shifts in the structure of agriculture. One significant change has been the rapid growth in livestock and fishery production. Total meat output increased from 12.05 million tons in 1980 to 86.25 million tons in 2015; aquatic products increased from 4.5 million tons in 1980 to 65 million tons in 2014. In terms of contribution to total value of agricultural outputs, the share of crops declined from 76% in 1980 to 54% in 2015, while the share of livestock increased from 18% in 1980 to 28% in 2015. The share of fisheries increased most rapidly, from just 1.7% in 1980 to 10% in 2015. The major drivers of agricultural production in the past three and half decades include: (1) encouraging policies that mobilize farmers’ motivation in agricultural production; (2) technological progress; (3) income growth and urbanization as drivers of both qualitative and quantitative changes in agricultural production; and (4) agricultural productivity growth and the increasing use of agricultural inputs (Norse and Ju, 2015). However, these driving forces are also bringing about certain constraints to
II. CURRENT APPROACHES TO SUSTAINABLE FOOD AND AGRICULTURE
THE WAY FORWARD: SUPPORTING GREENER ECONOMIES
BOX 31.1 the further development of agricultural production. The introduction of the household responsibility system has been a major driver of increased agricultural production in the early stage of rural reform. However, small-scale and fragmented household farming plots have become a barrier for further improvement in resource use efficiency, mechanization, and market competitiveness (Huang and Ding, 2016; Ju et al., 2016). Intensive land and water resource use with high input has caused degradation of natural resource bases and environmental externalities (Norse and Ju, 2015; Lu et al., 2015). In recognition of these challenges, the Chinese Government has started implementing a comprehensive strategy to modernize China’s agriculture while increasing efficiency and improving environmental outcomes: the zero-growth policy in fertilizer use by 2020 is one of the important components of the strategy, as is land consolidation (Lu, 2016). Five key concepts inform China’s policy framework for development over the next 5 years include: innovation, coordination, greening, opening up, and sharing. The 2016 No. 1 Central Document, released on January 27, 2016 (Xinhua, 2016), gives a broad picture of China’s strategy for sustainable intensification. This covers the following key aspects: 1. Consolidating the foundation for modern agriculture, enhancing the quality, efficiency, and competitiveness of agriculture. China will improve the quality and competitiveness of its
(cont’d) agricultural products through highquality farmland and professional farmers, catering to the demands of modern agriculture. This will entail developing high-quality farmland, advancing irrigation, strengthening innovation and extension systems (including that of the seed industry), coordinating use of resources and markets at home and abroad, and making full use of large family farm operations, including by professionalizing family farms. 2. Protecting resources and the ecosystem and promoting green agricultural development. This will be achieved by strengthening actions to protect resources and increase efficiency in their utilization, accelerating the pace at which environmental problems are tackled, and finally by instituting a food safety strategy. 3. Promoting the integration of primary, secondary, and tertiary industries and raising farm incomes by promoting logistics, markets, and the profit-sharing mechanism in rural regions, including the processing of agricultural products, rural tourism, and agritourism. 4. Promoting integrated rural urban development by accelerating the development of rural infrastructure, raising the level of public services, improving rural and agricultural insurance services, and encouraging financial institutions to extend credit to agricultural businesses.
II. CURRENT APPROACHES TO SUSTAINABLE FOOD AND AGRICULTURE
275
276
31. THE WAY FORWARD: SUPPORTING GREENER ECONOMIES
global energy consumption, with the fastest growing sector being photovoltaic systems (solar PV). This alone could have a significant impact on remote rural communities, and thus lead to changes in agricultural and food systems. The revenue of many poorer countries is absorbed by the costs of oil imports: for example, India, Kenya, and Senegal spend 45% 50% of their export earnings on energy imports. Investing in renewable energy benefits these three countries by saving export earnings, increasing self-reliance, and improving domestic natural capital. Kenya has introduced feed-in tariffs on energy generated from wind, biomass, hydro, biogas, solar, and geothermal sources from 2008 (UNEP, 2011). In this way, a greener economy that dramatically changes aspirations and consumption patterns by increasing consumption by the current poor and reducing that of the affluent, increases well-being, and protects natural capital is not likely to greatly resemble the current economy. Relevant to all sectors of economies will be important questions about material consumption, in particular how modes of consumption based on “enough not more” can be created, resulting in mass behaviors of “enoughness” (O’Neill et al., 2010). In this way, the sustainable intensification of agricultural systems could both promote transitions toward greener economies as well as benefit from progress in other sectors. As noted by the NRC (2010) “sustainability is best evaluated not as a particular end state, but rather a process that moves farming systems along a trajectory towards greater sustainability.” This suggests that no single policy instrument, research output, or institutional configuration will work to maximize sustainability and productivity over spatially variable conditions and over time. The NRC (2010) made a series of recommendations regarding public research for public goods and integration of agencies to address multidisciplinary challenges in agriculture. It was recommended that the national (in this case, the US Department of Agriculture) and state agricultural institutions should continue publicly funded research and development of key farming practices for improving sustainability and productivity, and that federal and state agricultural research and development programs should deliberately pursue integrated research and extension on farming systems, with a focus on whole agroecosystems. It was further suggested that all agricultural and environmental agencies, universities, and farmer-led organizations should develop a longterm research and extension initiative to understand and shape the aggregate effect of farming at landscape scale. Researchers were encouraged to adopt farmer-participatory research and farmer-managed trials as critical components of their research. At the national level, there should finally be investment in studies to understand how market structures, policies, and knowledge institutions provide opportunities or barriers to expanding sustainable practices in farming. This is particularly important in enabling farmers to navigate the complex and evolving trade-offs between resource conservation and increasing farmers’ incomes through participation in markets. Policies designed to conserve resources and stabilize resource availability and farmers’ incomes may not work well over time given market imperatives to maximize resource use and incomes (see, for example, Bharucha et al., 2014). In the context of developing countries, the 30 African cases of sustainable intensification (Pretty et al., 2011, 2014) have illustrated key lessons regarding policy challenges. These projects contained many different technologies and practices, yet had similar approaches to working with farmers, involving agricultural research, building social infrastructure,
II. CURRENT APPROACHES TO SUSTAINABLE FOOD AND AGRICULTURE
THE WAY FORWARD: SUPPORTING GREENER ECONOMIES
277
working in novel partnerships, and developing new private sector options. Only in some of the cases were national policies directly influential. These projects indicated that there were seven key requirements for such scaling up of sustainable intensification to larger numbers of farmers: 1. Scientific and farmer input into technologies and practices that combine crops and livestock with appropriate agroecological and agronomic management. 2. Creation of novel social infrastructure that results in both flows of information and builds trust among individuals and agencies. 3. Improvement of farmer knowledge and capacity through the use of farmer field schools, videos, and modern information communication technologies. 4. Engagement with the private sector to supply goods and services (e.g., veterinary services, manufacturers of implements, seed multipliers, milk and tea collectors) and development of farmers’ capacity to add value through their own business development. 5. A focus particularly on women’s educational, microfinance, and agricultural technology needs, and building of their unique forms of social capital. 6. Ensuring that microfinance and rural banking are available to farmer groups. 7. Ensure public sector support to lever up the necessary public goods in the form of innovative and capable research systems, dense social infrastructure, appropriate economic incentives (subsidies, price signals), legal status for land ownership, and improved access to markets through transport infrastructure. However, no single project or program will be able to address all seven of these requirements at once, and thus a generic need persists for an integrated approach that seeks positive synergies over time. Despite great progress having been made, and now the emergence of the term “sustainable intensification” and its component parts, much remains to be done to ensure agricultural systems worldwide not only increase productivity fast enough, but also guarantee only positive impacts on natural and social capital.
II. CURRENT APPROACHES TO SUSTAINABLE FOOD AND AGRICULTURE