Through the lens of history: The effects of beliefs about historical victimization on responses to refugees

International Journal of Intercultural Relations 74 (2020) 94–114

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Through the lens of history: The effects of beliefs about historical victimization on responses to refugees

T

Zsolt Péter Szabóa,*, Johanna Ray Vollhardtb, Noémi Zsuzsanna Mészárosc a b c

Department of Social Psychology, Eötvös Loránd University, Hungary Department of Psychology, Clark University, United States Department of Social Psychology, Pázmány Péter Catholic University, Hungary

A R T IC LE I N F O

ABS TRA CT

Keywords: Collective victimhood Collective memories Inclusive victim consciousness Exclusive victim consciousness Historical analogies Central Eastern Europe

In societies with collective memories of their group’s historical victimization, perceptions of this victimization are linked to attitudes and behaviors towards present-day victim groups such as refugees. We examine this idea in the Hungarian context, where collective memories of historical victimization include the fate of Hungarian refugees in 1956. In surveys among two Hungarian community samples, we find support for the hypothesis that exclusive regional victim consciousness predicts support for anti-refugee policies, while inclusive regional victim consciousness predicts support for pro-refugee policies. In Study 2, we replicate and extend these findings with a novel measure of event-specific victim consciousness (i.e., historical analogies between the two refugee situations). We show that event-specific victim consciousness mediates the effects of regional victim consciousness on attitudes towards refugees, and predicts prosocial behavior towards refugees.

Introduction Recently, Europe has faced the largest influx of refugees and economic migrants since World War II. Since 2014, 1.8 million people have arrived in Europe, mainly from the Middle East and Africa. One of the main routes leads through Hungary, which is one of the top recipients of asylum applications per capita (Eurostat, 2016). Hungarian society has shown different reactions to the refugees. Thousands of volunteers and activists have shown solidarity, offering humanitarian aid and support (Kallius, Monterescu, & Rajaram, 2016). Conversely, and in line with the government’s rhetoric, many others dehumanize the refugees and believe they increase security risks, take social benefits, and threaten the country’s culture and identity (Bruneau, Kteily, & Laustsen, 2018; Manevich, 2016). Thus, many support the government’s tough measures, such as involving the army in border protection and putting up a razor-wire fence on Hungary’s borders with Serbia and Croatia (Hungarytoday, 2016; Surk & Castle, 2015). What helps explain when people respond to refugees in these prosocial versus hostile ways? Research on host society members’ responses to refugees has examined variables such as perceived threat and competition, political ideology and identities, and dehumanization (for a review see Esses, Hamilton, & Gaucher, 2017). We argue that in addition to these more general social psychological predictors, where relevant, context-specific collective memories of ingroup victimization (Bilali & Ross, 2012; Vollhardt, 2012a) will also be powerful predictors of responses to refugees. Specifically, when the current refugee experience of outgroups evokes comparisons with the ingroup’s collective memories of victimization and refugee experiences, whether people see these events as connected or distinct can help explain attitudes towards present-day refugees.

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Corresponding author at: 1064, Budapest, Izabella utca 46, Hungary. E-mail address: [email protected] (Z.P. Szabó).

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijintrel.2019.10.009 Received 15 March 2019; Received in revised form 17 September 2019; Accepted 27 October 2019 0147-1767/ © 2019 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

International Journal of Intercultural Relations 74 (2020) 94–114

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One such context, while not unique (see for example Kaczynski’s speech in 2017 about the Polish situation, Barteczko & Sobczak, 2017), is Hungary. In addition to Hungarian refugees after both world wars, after the defeat of the revolution against Soviet rule in 1956 approximately 200,000 Hungarians left to escape retaliation and find better life conditions. Today, some Hungarians draw parallels between the Hungarian refugees of the past and the current refugees from elsewhere, pointing out their perceived responsibility to help (Balogh, 2017). Others reject the comparison. For instance, Zoltán Kovács, the Hungarian government spokesman, said that “any comparison to what’s happening now, third-country migrants trying to enter the European Union is (…) ignorance of history” (Dunai, 2016). Conversely, criticizing the lack of aid to asylum seekers who were stranded at Budapest’s train station, historian Friederike Kind-Kovács argued that “this train station is not just a symbol of today’s refugee crisis. It also reminds us of one of Hungary’s ‘own’ past refugee crises.” (Vargha, 2015). She describes how Hungarian refugees after the First World War also used the train stations in Budapest as their main emergency shelter, thereby emphasizing the parallels between these two events of ingroup and outgroup victimization. These examples reflect inclusive and exclusive victim consciousness, that is, the degree to which people perceive their group’s victimization as similar to other groups’ experiences of collective victimization, or as distinct and unique (for reviews see Vollhardt, 2012a, 2015). These comparisons can occur on different levels – focusing on other groups worldwide, other groups involved in a particular conflict, or other groups in the region (Vollhardt, 2012a; Vollhardt et al., 2019). While some research has found that perceived similarity in suffering in general with other victim groups predicted attitudes towards refugees and immigrants (Vollhardt, Nair, & Tropp, 2016, 2018), no research to date has examined the effects of more specific comparisons of victimization events—such as the historical refugee experiences of the ingroup, and the present-day refugee experiences of outgroups. We refer to these comparisons as event-specific victim consciousness. The present paper examines the role of regional and event-specific collective victim beliefs in predicting attitudes and behaviors towards refugees in Hungary, where the historical comparison with ingroup refugees is relevant.

Social psychological predictors of attitudes towards refugees In their review of predictors of attitudes towards refugees among members of the host society, Esses et al. (2017) focused on three major sources: perceived threat and competition, national identification, and dehumanization. Because perceived threat, competition, and dehumanization are also sometimes used as outcome measures and indicators of negative intergroup attitudes (e.g., Verkuyten, 2018), we focus here on national identification and other more distal predictors. National identification, particularly the mode referred to as nationalism (Esses et al., 2017) or ingroup glorification (Roccas, Klar, & Liviatan, 2006) that captures the belief that the in-group is better than other groups, is associated with negative feelings and behavioral intentions toward asylum seekers (Louis, Esses, & Lalonde, 2013). Conversely, attachment—another mode of national identification, also referred to as patriotism—does not tend to predict negative attitudes toward refugees (Esses et al., 2017; however, see Yitmen & Verkuyten, 2018). Similarly, how the national ingroup is defined influences attitudes towards refugees: an ethnic understanding of nationhood predicts more negative, and a civic understanding of nationhood more positive attitudes towards refugees (e.g., Kende, Lantos, & Krekó, 2018; Reijerse, Van Acker, Vanbeselaere, Phalet, & Duriez, 2013). Another major predictor of attitudes towards refugees is political ideology. Generally, conservative and right-wing ideologies in different contexts predict more negative attitudes towards refugees and related policies (e.g., Bruneau et al., 2018; Wike, Stokes, & Simmons, 2016). Studies in Hungary also support the role of these and other psychological processes in explaining attitudes towards refugees. For example, both ingroup attachment and glorification were correlated with anti-immigrant prejudice in Hungary (Kende, Hadarics, & Szabó, 2018); and Hungarian participants who endorsed left-wing political ideologies were more likely to volunteer and engage in activism in support of refugees (Kende, Lantos, Belinszky, Csaba, & Lukács, 2017; see also Bruneau et al., 2018; Kende, Hadarics et al., 2018; Wike et al., 2016). Additionally, trait empathic concern (but not perspective taking) was associated with support for antirefugee policies in Hungary (Bruneau et al., 2018). In addition to these more general predictors of attitudes towards refugees, it is also necessary to consider more context-specific variables, such as how refugees are viewed in light of collective memories of victimization experienced by the host society. We discuss these processes in the following.

Collective victim beliefs Individual beliefs about the ingroup’s historical victimization—i.e., collective victim beliefs (Vollhardt, 2012a)—are shaped by collective memories that are passed down generations and communicated through memorials, history books, anthems, and other cultural products (Bilali & Ross, 2012; Olick, 1999). However, group members may endorse these representations of the ingroup’s history (including victimization events) to different degrees, and prefer different construals of the ingroup’s victimization that are shared within the group (e.g., Klar, Schori-Eyal, & Klar, 2013; Rimé, Bouchat, Klein, & Licata, 2015; Vollhardt & Nair, 2018). Comparative victim beliefs have received particular attention in the emerging social psychological literature on collective victimhood (Noor, Vollhardt, Mari, & Nadler, 2017). Specifically, people may compare their ingroup’s victimization with other groups’ experiences, and conclude that their ingroup’s suffering is similar (i.e., inclusive victim consciousness: Vollhardt, 2015); or they may perceive their group’s victimization to be unique and distinct, or more severe (i.e., exclusive victim consciousness; or competitive victimhood when only referring to the perceived greater severity; Noor, Shnabel, Halabi, & Nadler, 2012; Vollhardt, 2012a). 95

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Effects of collective victim beliefs on intergroup relations The degree to which people endorse inclusive or exclusive victim consciousness can help explain intergroup attitudes and support for related policies. Collective memories have a normative function, defining the course of action the group should follow (Rimé et al., 2015). For example, exclusive construals of the ingroup’s victimization are often linked to perceived rights to defend and protect the ingroup from future harm (Klar et al., 2013; Vollhardt, 2012b). Accordingly, across different conflict settings, the perception that the ingroup suffered more than the other conflict party was associated with less forgiveness and willingness for reconciliation, less trust toward the other conflict party, greater social distance, and more support for exclusionary policies and leaders (e.g., Noor, Brown, & Prentice, 2008; Vollhardt & Bilali, 2015). Conversely, inclusive construals of the ingroup’s victimization often imply perceived obligations to help other groups in need and prevent future violence against them (Klar et al., 2013; Vollhardt, 2012b; Warner, Wohl, & Branscombe, 2014). Accordingly, the perception that the ingroup and the outgroup in a conflict suffered in similar ways was associated with greater willingness to forgive and reconcile with the other conflict party, and support inclusive and conciliatory policies and leaders (e.g., Shnabel, Halabi, & Noor, 2013; Vollhardt & Bilali, 2015; Vollhardt et al., 2019). Global comparisons—that is, perceiving other groups worldwide to have suffered in similar versus distinct ways—have similar effects. For example, global exclusive victim consciousness predicted resentment toward a former perpetrator group and support for Muslim surveillance, as well as conflict-enhancing policies (Vollhardt et al., 2019). Global inclusive victim consciousness, in contrast, predicted support for reconciliation with the former perpetrator group and conciliatory policies (Vollhardt et al., 2019; Cohrs, McNeill, & Vollhardt, 2015). Pertinent to the present studies, global inclusive victim consciousness also predicted support for refugees among four different samples (minority groups in the U.S. and in India; Vollhardt et al., 2016, 2018). In some contexts, however, conflict-specific or global comparisons may be less relevant. For example, when groups are not currently involved in a conflict, conflict-specific comparisons are irrelevant. Similarly, statements such as “the suffering of my group is unique in world history” (Vollhardt et al., 2016) may seem exaggerated when the violence was less severe or pervasive, making global comparisons less reliable. For this reason, two recent studies explored regional comparisons instead, which are more relevant in some contexts—including Central Eastern Europe, where several neighboring countries experienced similar histories of collective violence due to the same wars, occupations, and political regimes (Bibó, 1946; Bideleux & Jeffries, 2007). Accordingly, in a Hungarian and in a Polish sample, regional exclusive victim consciousness (i.e., the perception that the ingroup’s suffering was unparalleled in Central Eastern Europe) predicted resentment towards former enemy groups and support for surveillance of Muslims, while regional inclusive victim consciousness (the perception that other Central Eastern European nations suffered in similar ways as the ingroup) predicted reconciliation with historical enemy groups and increased willingness to accept Syrian refugees (Vollhardt et al., 2019). Event-specific victim beliefs and historical analogies While providing initial evidence of the role of region-specific victim beliefs in predicting attitudes towards refugees, these studies have several short comings. First, only one measure of perceived social distance was used, rather than assessing more concrete policy opinions, explicit rejection of refugees, and actual behaviors. Second, the potential link with the collective memory of Hungarian refugees in 1956 was not investigated, making it unclear if this event-specific comparison was relevant above and beyond general inclusive and exclusive victim consciousness. We argue that when there is a clear basis for comparison with a specific event—such as the collective memory of the Hungarian refugee crisis in 1956 and the present-day refugees to Europe—these event-specific comparisons of victimization are powerful predictors of attitudes towards groups whose fate may be seen as resembling the ingroup’s. Inclusive event-specific victim consciousness has some conceptual overlap with historical analogies, which are defined as comparisons between a present and a past situation (Ghilani et al., 2017). These analogies can affect intergroup attitudes through several functions that include defining the roles of current actors, making decisions, and persuading others (Ghilani et al., 2017). Some research suggests that historical analogies can shape attitudes toward minority groups. For example, among Dutch participants the historical analogy between past Nazi collaborators’ ideology and current far-right ideology predicted less opposition to Muslims’ rights (Smeekes, Van Acker, Verkuyten, & Vanbeselaere, 2014). However, the research on historical analogies differs from eventspecific victim consciousness in that historical analogies can concern any historical event and the use of these analogies by any given group (whether it is a perpetrator, bystander, or victim of collective violence). In contrast, event-specific victim consciousness is specifically about historical victimization experienced by the ingroup, and comparisons of this victimization (which can entail similarities but also perceived differences, i.e., the rejection of the analogy) with an outgroup’s past or present-day experience of victimization. The hungarian context Collective memories of Hungarian history focus on the fact that revolutions and independence wars, which began with triumphant victories, were mostly followed by defeats and losses (László, 2013). After the defeat in the battle of Mohács in 1526, Hungary was under Ottoman rule for 150 years, followed by the Habsburgs. After World War I, the Trianon Peace Treaty resulted in Hungary loosing 72 % of its territory and 64 % of its population (Romsics, 1999). The Trianon Treaty has become the “chosen trauma” for Hungarians (Fülöp & László, 2013). World War II brought the occupation of Hungary by Nazi Germany and the deportation of Hungarian Jews. The collaboration with the government led by the Arrow Cross party, and the role as victim versus collaborator, remains a sensitive issue (Hirschberger, Kende, & Weinstein, 2016). Losing the war, Hungary found itself under Soviet rule. The uprising of the Hungarian people in 1956 was crushed by Soviet troops, resulting in approximately 3000 deaths and 200,000 Hungarian refugees who were given asylum in 35 countries. This was the largest wave of refugees in Europe after the Second World 96

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War (Cartledge, 2011). The Hungarian refugee crisis of 1956 has recently received increased attention because of today’s refugees. Hungarian society, politicians (Surján, 2017), historians (Mink, 2017), journalists (Stumpf, 2016), and even ‘56ers’ (Hungarian refugees of 1956; McLaughlin, 2016) are far from agreeing whether the two events are comparable, as discussed earlier. Hungarian collective memories of the repeated experiences of defeat have led to a sense of national vulnerability and collective victimhood (Fülöp et al., 2014). However, only scarce social psychological research so far has examined collective victim beliefs in the Hungarian context. The present study aimed to expand on this research and examine the role of collective victim beliefs in Hungary in predicting attitudes and behaviors towards refugees, above and beyond the effects of variables typically assessed as predictors of responses to refugees. Hypotheses and overview of studies We hypothesized that regional inclusive victim consciousness will predict positive attitudes and prosocial behavioral intentions towards refugees, while regional exclusive victim consciousness will predict negative, hostile attitudes towards refugees. Based on previous findings in other contexts (e.g., Vollhardt & Bilali, 2015; Vollhardt et al., 2016), we do not expect exclusive victim consciousness to predict (less) positive attitudes and prosocial behavioral intentions, or inclusive victim consciousness to predict (less) negative, hostile attitudes towards refugees. Additionally, we expect that event-specific inclusive victim consciousness—comparing the Hungarian refugees in 1956 with the present-day situation that has been described as a “refugee crisis” (i.e., historical analogies between ingroup and outgroup suffering)—will be a stronger predictor of attitudes towards refugees than regional victim consciousness; and that it will mediate the effects of regional victim consciousness on attitudes towards refugees. We test this novel prediction in Study 2. In both studies, we control for several key predictors of attitudes and behaviors towards refugees to test the effects of victim consciousness above and beyond these established predictors. Study 1 Method Sample Three hundred and seventy-two participants completed the study: 123 men and 249 women ranging in age from 17 to 80 (M = 33.05, SD = 14.64). Participants completed the survey online (n = 139) or as a paper and pencil version (n = 233). Three participants had missing responses on more than five items in our main predictor variable and were excluded from the analyses (remaining N = 369). We conducted a statistical power analysis with G*Power (Faul, Erdfelder, Buchner, & Lang, 2009). Given the number of predictors and control variables, α = 0.05 and a medium effect size of Cohen f2 = .15 (Cohen, 1988), the sample size needed to achieve a power level of 0.95 in multiple regressions is 172 participants, which is met by our sample size. The majority (58.9 %) of participants had a university degree, 31.7 % reported a high-school degree (including students currently completing a university degree), and less than 10 % did not have a high-school degree. 36 participants lived in the capital, 202 in cities with county’s rights (i.e., bigger cities), 75 in other cities, and 54 in villages (two did not report their place of residence). Measures All items were assessed on 7-point scales from “strongly disagree” (1) to “strongly agree” (7). Context-specific measures of attitudes towards refugees were pilot tested and factor-analyzed1 . A complete list of all items used in this analysis is provided in the Appendix. Predictor variable: Regional victim consciousness. 24 items, closely adapted from established measures of global and conflict-specific victim consciousness (Cohrs et al., 2015; Vollhardt et al., 2016) and piloted in a previous study (Vollhardt et al., 2019), assessed regional victim beliefs, that is, comparisons with the suffering of other groups in the region. Eight items each measured regional exclusive victim consciousness and regional inclusive victim consciousness. Eight items assessing personal centrality of ingroup victimization served as a control variable, to ensure that the predictor variables’ effects did not merely reflect differences in how personally relevant people though the ingroup’s historical victimization was (see Vollhardt el al., 2016). We conducted an exploratory factor analysis (maximum likelihood extraction, oblique promax rotation) on the 24 items. Four items were deleted due to cross-loadings (over .30) and one item did not have a factor loading above .40 (Costello & Osborne, 2005). The remaining items 1 In a pilot study, Hungarian university students (N = 357) completed our self-designed measures of attitudes towards refugees, along with other items that were beyond the scope of the current paper. Explanatory factor analysis was conducted on 27 self-designed items using maximum likelihood estimation with promax rotation. Cross-loading items were excluded. The scree plot showed a clear break after the second factor, and a smaller break after the fourth factor. However, only 2 similarly-worded items describing the support for bringing back conscription loaded on the fourth factor, which could not be meaningfully interpreted. Therefore, we used three factors in Study 1: Factor 1 was labelled ‘Support for antirefugee policies”, Factor 2 was labelled ‘Support for pro-refugee policies’ and Factor 3 was labelled ‘Willingness for personal involvement in helping the refugees.’ These factors had good internal consistencies in the pilot study (α was .85 for ‘Support of anti-refugee policies’, α was .76 for ‘Support of pro-refugee policies’, α was .81 for ‘Willingness for personal involvement in helping the refugees.’).

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Table 1 Factor Loadings (Exploratory Factor Analysis for Regional Victim Consciousness Items (Study 1).

No other Central and Eastern European nation has suffered as much as the Hungarian people. There is no suffering in the history of other East Central European nations which is comparable to the Hungarians’ suffering. There is no other nation in East Central Europe which went through the same tribulations as the Hungarians. While all experiences of suffering are somewhat different, the Hungarian experience is truly unique. While other nations in Central and Eastern Europe (have been) harmed in the past and the present, the Hungarian experiences is overall much more severe. The harm Hungarians suffered is unique in Central and Eastern Europe’s history. Saying that the other Central and Eastern European nations’ experiences of suffering is similar to the Hungarian’s (experiences) is just wrong. Generally speaking there are other nations in the Central and Eastern European regions that have a history of hardship like the Hungarians. The degree to which some other Central and Eastern European nations have suffered is comparable to how much the Hungarian people have suffered. Despite some clear differences, the harm of other Central and Eastern European nations is similar to the Hungarian people’s experiences. There are other Central and Eastern European nations that suffered as much as the Hungarian people. Other nations in Central and Eastern Europe have been repressed/oppressed in similar ways as Hungarians. I tend to think or talk about the similarities between the Hungarian experiences of suffering and other Central and Eastern European nations’ experiences of suffering rather than about the differences. It is very important (to me) to know about the historical suffering of the Hungarians. I am not very interested in learning more about the suffering of the Hungarian people. (R) Knowing about how Hungarians have suffered has shaped who I am today. It is important to me to remember and pass on stories about the Hungarians’ hardship to next generations. Percent of variance

Exclusive VC

Inclusive VC

Personal Centrality of In-group Victimization

.98

.02

-.06

.93

.01

-.07

.88

-.03

-.03

.79

.01

.05

.71

-.05

.10

.67 .50

-.07 -.15

.05 -.11

-.03

.77

-.09

-.06

.75

.04

-.03

.67

-.01

-.19

.66

-.09

-.09

.55

.01

.07

.45

.12

.06 .20 -.04 .25

.12 .16 .02 .10

.85 -.68 .66 .59

40.35%

11.85%

4.62%

Note: The bolded figures indicate which factor the item loaded on in the final analysis.

loaded on three factors (see Table 1): seven items measured regional exclusive victim consciousness (α = .93), six items regional inclusive victim consciousness (α = .83), and four items personal centrality of ingroup victimization (α = .79).

Historical analogies. To further explore associations between history and the present-day refugee situation, an open-ended question following the outcome measures asked: “Do you think the current refugee situation has any similarity with previous historical event (s)? If ‘yes,’ please specify which event(s)!” These responses were assigned to a historical event category by the first author.

Outcome variables. Support for increased border protection and military presence to prevent more refugees from entering Hungary was assessed with five items (e.g., “I agree with the necessity of the fence on the borders of Hungary;” α = .89). Support for pro-refugee policies was assessed with four items (e.g., “We have to provide financial support for refugees;” α = .81). Three items assessed the willingness for personal involvement in helping the refugees (e.g., “I am actively involved in helping refugees;” α = .75). Control variables. We controlled for ingroup glorification (α = .86; e.g. “Relative to other nations, we are a very intelligent nation) and attachment (α = 88; e.g. “Being Hungarian is an important part of my identity”) with two four-item scales (Roccas, Sagiv, Schwartz, Halevy, & Eidelson, 2008, adapted to Hungarian by Szabó & László, 2014). Political ideology was assessed on a 7-point scale ranging from 1 (“very left”) to 7 (“very right”). Finally, we controlled for personal centrality of ingroup victimization (see above) and for demographic characteristics (age, gender, level of education, place of residence).

Procedure Participants were recruited by research assistants at Pécs University through snowball sampling on social media and through personal contacts. Participation was voluntary, without compensation, and anonymous. After providing informed consent, participants completed the demographic questions (including political ideology), followed by the regional victim consciousness measure, then the outcome variables and open-ended question about perceived similarity with historical events, and finally the national identification measures. Participants were then thanked and debriefed. 98

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Table 2 Means, Standard Deviations, and Pearson’s Correlation for Variables Used in Study 1. Variable

1.

2.

3.

4.

5.

6.

7.

8.

9.

1.Support for increased border protection and military presence 2.Support for pro-refugee policies 3.Personal involvement 4.Regional exclusive VC 5.Regional inclusive VC 6.Victimhood centrality 7.Attachment 8.Glorification 9.Political ideology M SD

–

-.59** –

-.35** .64** –

.62** -.39** -.17** –

-.43** .40** .22** -.63** –

.32** -.18** -.08 .39** -.10 –

.43** -.14** -.00 .44** -.17** .52** –

.65** -.39** -.14** .72** -.47** .37** .63** –

3.95 1.83

3.48 1.55

2.90 1.55

3.17 1.49

4.89 1.06

4.26 1.43

5.00 1.64

3.72 1.51

.47** -.32** -.25** .47** -.28** .31** .35** .41** – 4.23 1.44

Note: Personal involvement = Personal involvement in helping refugees; VC = Victim consciousness; Victimhood centrality = Personal centrality of ingroup victimization. Political ideology was assessed using a 7-point scale (1 = extreme left, 7 = extreme right. *p < .05, **p < .01.

Results We first examined correlations between the main variables (see Table 2, where we also report means and standard deviations). As expected, regional exclusive victim consciousness correlated positively with support for increased border protection and military presence, and negatively with support for pro-refugee policies and willingness to help the refugees. Also as expected, regional inclusive victim consciousness was positively correlated with support for pro-refugee policies and willingness to help the refugees. Additionally, regional inclusive victim consciousness was negatively correlated with support for increased border protection and military presence. There was a significant, negative relationship between regional exclusive victim consciousness and regional inclusive victim consciousness. We used multiple regression analyses to test our predictions and examine the effects of victim consciousness simultaneously while accounting for relevant control variables (see Table 3). As hypothesized, regional exclusive victim consciousness predicted support for increased border protection and military presence, but not prosocial attitudes or behavioral intentions towards refugees. Conversely, and as hypothesized, regional inclusive victim consciousness predicted prosocial attitudes and behavioral intentions (support for pro-refugee policies and willingness to personally help the refugees); but not support for increased border protection and military presence. The effects were significant above and beyond established predictors of attitudes towards refugees (e.g., political ideology, national identification). Discussion Study 1 shows that construals of historical ingroup victimization—specifically, how people compare their group’s historical victimization with experiences of other groups in the region—are important predictors of attitudes toward refugees in the present. Specifically, regional inclusive victim consciousness predicted prosocial attitudes toward refugees: willingness to personally help them, and support for pro-refugee policies such as opening borders or supporting refugee-aid organizations. Likewise, regional exclusive victim consciousness predicted support for increased border protection and military presence. These relationships were significant even when controlling for other established predictors of intergroup attitudes in this context, ruling out that the effects are merely due to demographic differences or differences in political ideology or national identity. These findings demonstrate the importance of how collective memories of ingroup victimization are construed, and that the ingroup’s historical experience of collective victimization relates to attitudes towards refugees in the present. Thus, collective victim beliefs are crucial for understanding intergroup attitudes in societies with strong collective memories of ingroup victimization (László, 2013; Vollhardt, 2012a). However, some limitations of the study need to be considered. For example, we did not control for different degrees of empathy or perspective-taking that are both associated with prosocial orientations (Batson & Oleson, 1991; Epley & Caruso, 2008). We address this limitation in Study 2. Additionally, while a strength of this study is the range of different outcome measures, these are all selfreport measures. In Study 2 we address this limitation by adding a measure of actual behavior. Another limitation is the relatively open-ended nature of the regional victim consciousness measure. First, the items do not explicitly mention the current refugees as a comparison group. While this provides a more conservative test of the hypothesis, participants may think of different groups when completing these measures (as evidenced by the answers to the open-ended questions about historical analogies which we discuss below). Hungarian history includes refugee experiences after the world wars and in 1956, but also invasions by the Ottomans, Mongols, and others. Thus, Hungarian history has rich opportunities to anchor the current events and make meaning of them in different ways, and with different historical analogies in mind (Ghilani et al., 2017; Liu & Hilton, 2005). Accordingly, participants’ answers to our open-ended question varied. Only roughly half of the sample (130 participants) said that there was a historical analogy. Nearly one fourth of those who responded (23 %) named the Hungarians’ refugee experiences as similar to the present-day refugee situation, indicating that their responses to the inclusive victim consciousness and outcome measures were likely driven by these perceived similarities. However, other participants mentioned other historical analogies such as the Migration Periods in Europe (22 %) or the Balkan Wars (3.7 %), suggesting that they did not think of the similarity between 99

100

β 95% CI [-.01, .01] [-.45, .14] [-.26, .08] [-.26, .03] [.11, .33] [-.06, .19] [.20, .52] [-.07, .17] [.16, .50] [-.31, .05] p < .001 p .92 .31 .28 .12 < .001 .31 < .001 .43 < .001 .15

SE β 95% CI p .01 [-.01, .01] .83 .16 [-.04, .58] .09 .09 [-.15, .21] .74 .08 [-.03, 28] .11 .06 [-.28, -.06] < .001 .07 [.02, .28] .02 .09 [-.46, -.12] < .001 .06 [-.22, .04] .17 .09 [-.19, .16] .89 .09 [.13, .50] < .001 F (10,334) = 11.914, p < .001

β .01 .08 .02 .08 -.16 .16 -.28 -.08 -.01 .21 R2 = .263,

SE .01 .15 .09 .07 .06 .06 .08 .06 .09 .09 334) = 36.720,

β -.00 -.04 -.04 -.06 .18 .06 .29 .04 .26 -.07 R2 = .524, F (10,

Note. Victimhood centrality = Personal centrality of ingroup victimization, VC = Victim consciousness.

Age Gender Place of residence Level of education Political Ideology Attachment Glorification Victimhood Centrality Regional Exclusive VC Regional Inclusive VC Model summary

DV 2: Support for Pro-Refugee Policies

DV 1: Support for Increased Border Protection and Military Presence

β .08 -.01 -.02 .12 -.21 .11 -.02 -.07 -.01 .16 R2 = .125,

SE β 95% CI .01 [-.00, .02] .17 [-.37, .31] .10 [-.23, .16] .09 [.02, .36] .06 [-.34, -.09] .07 [-.04, .24] .09 [-.20, .16] .07 [-.21, .07] .10 [-.20, .18] .10 [.03, .43] F (10,334) = 4.773, p < .001

p .16 .86 .71 .03 < .001 .16 .81 .30 .92 .02

DV 3: Personal Involvement in Helping Refugees

Table 3 Multiple Regression Predicting Support for Increased Border Protection and Military Presence, Pro-Refugee Policies, and Personal Involvement in Helping Refugees.

Z.P. Szabó, et al.

International Journal of Intercultural Relations 74 (2020) 94–114

International Journal of Intercultural Relations 74 (2020) 94–114

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historical Hungarian refugee experiences and present-day refugees when completing the measures of inclusive victim consciousness. In Study 2, we examined more explicitly how inclusive versus exclusive victim beliefs regarding Hungarians’ historical refugee experiences and the experiences of the current refugees affect attitudes towards these refugees, and how these event-specific comparisons relate to more general comparisons of suffering. Study 2 To directly assess perceived similarities and differences between the suffering of Hungarian refugees after the fall of the 1956 revolution and the current refugees, in Study 2we introduced a new measure of event-specific victim consciousness. This measure focused on endorsement or rejection of historical analogies (Ghilani et al., 2017) between the historical Hungarian refugee situation and the present-day refugee situation. (H1). We hypothesized that event-specific victim consciousness would predict attitudes and behaviors towards refugees above and beyond regional victim consciousness (and other relevant control variables). Specifically, we hypothesized that people who recognize similarities between historical experiences of Hungarian refugees (a specific ingroup victimization event) and present-day refugees (a specific outgroup victimization event) would have more positive, prosocial attitudes and behaviors towards these refugees. Conversely, participants who do not perceive similarities between the in-group’s and the out-group’s victimization events would support anti-refugee policies. (H2). We hypothesized that the effects of more general, region-specific victim beliefs from Study 1 would replicate, though we expected the effects to be weaker when controlling for event-specific victim beliefs. (H3). We also hypothesized that the effects of the more general, regional victim beliefs on attitudes and behaviors would be mediated by the more concrete, event-specific victim beliefs (for similar arguments see Schori-Eyal, Halperin, & Bar-Tal, 20142). To replicate the effects from Study 1, we included the same outcome and control variables. However, we also aimed to extend the findings and address several limitations in Study 1. Therefore, in Study 2 we also controlled for trait empathic concern and perspective taking (Davis, 1983), and we extended the outcome measures: First, we added a measure of actual behavior. Second, we extended the anti-refugee policy items to include an issue that was highly relevant at the time the study was conducted, right after a set of amendments to Hungarian asylum laws was adopted. The so-called ‘pushback law’ allowed all asylum seekers to be detained and forced back into Serbia (Tóth & Kilic, 2017). Therefore, we also included items assessing support for detention and criminalization of the refugees, which is a more extreme policy than the one assessed in Study 1. Method Sample Two hundred and eighty participants completed the study: 96 men and 182 women (2 participants did not answer this question), ranging in age from 18 to 78 (M = 26.03, SD = 9.47). Participants completed the survey online (n = 231) or as a paper and pencil version (n =49). We dropped six participants with missing responses on more than five victim consciousness items and three participants who did not complete the outcome measures from the analyses. The resulting sample size was 271. The statistical power analysis (same procedure as in Study 1) revealed that our sample size was appropriate: considering the number of predictors and control variables, α = .05, and a medium effect size of Cohen f2 = .15, the average sample size needed to achieve a power level of .95 in multiple regressions was 189 participants. 41 % of the sample had a university degree, and 47.2 % had finished high school (including participants who were currently pursuing a higher degree). 11.8 % of the participants did not have a high school degree. 111 participants lived in the capital city, 64 lived in cities with county’s rights, 64 lived in other cities, and 30 lived in villages (2 participants did not answer this question). Measures All items were measured on a 7-point scale ranging from 1 (strongly disagree) to 7 (strongly agree). The full item list of all measures is in the Appendix. Predictor variables. To reduce the survey length, we used a shortened, 12-item version of the regional victim consciousness measure (Vollhardt et al., 2019). Eight items assessed event-specific victim consciousness. These items were developed for this study and assess perceived similarities and differences between the suffering of the refugees coming to Europe in the present and the suffering of the Hungarian refugees after the defeat of the 1956 revolution against the Soviet Union (e.g., “The degree to which the refugees have suffered is comparable to how much the Hungarian refugees suffered in 1956”). 2 Schori-Eyal and colleagues (2014) argue that there are different layers of collective victimhood in the Jewish Israeli context that relate to victimization in different time periods and different contexts: historical victimhood of Jews in Europe and other parts of the world, general conflict victimhood related to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, and conflict event victimhood related to specific events in which Jewish Israelis were harmed during the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. The effects of the more general historical victimhood on attitudes towards the Israeli-Palestinian conflict were mediated by the more concrete conflict event victimhood (Schori-Eyal et al., 2014, Study 3).

101

102

.05 -.01 .12 -.07 .05 -.13 -.13 .86 .77 -.77 .60 10.40%

-.02 -.05 .84 .80 .73 -.57 -.55 .48 .03 -.05 -.01 .05 30.55%

.75 .69 -.03 .12 -.04 .11 .10 .20 -.02 .05 .09 .13 4.13%

-.14 -.04 .05 .09 .02 .06 .12 -.08 -.03 .03 .11 .11 12.97%

.02

-.07 -.02 -.01 .19 -.01

-.06 .04 .01 -.06 -.04

.04 -.07 -.04 -.05 .88

Victimhood Centrality

.88 .88 .79 .62 .04

Note: VC = Victim consciousness, Victimhood centrality = Personal centrality of ingroup victimization. The bolded figures indicate which factor the item loads on.

No other Central and Eastern European nation has suffered as much as the Hungarian people. No other Central and Eastern European nations went through similar hardships as the Hungarians. There is no suffering in the history of other East Central European nations which is comparable to the Hungarians’ suffering. While all experiences of suffering are somewhat different, the Hungarian (experience) is truly unique. Despite some clear differences, the harm of other Central and Eastern European nations is similar to the Hungarian people’s experiences. The degree to which some other Central and Eastern European nations have suffered is comparable to how much the Hungarian people have suffered. Other nations in Central and Eastern Europe have been repressed / oppressed in similar ways as Hungarians. The degree to which the refugees have suffered is comparable to how much the Hungarian refugees suffered in 1956. Despite some clear differences, the harm experienced by the refugees is similar to the Hungarian refugees’ experiences in 1956. The refugees have been persecuted in similar ways as the Hungarian refugees in 1956. The hardships Hungarian refugees experienced in 1956 are different / distinct from what refugees today experience. The suffering of the refugees is not comparable to the suffering of the Hungarian refugees’ in 1956. The refugees have been harmed to the same degree as the Hungarian refugees in 1956. Knowing about the misdeeds against the Hungarians has influenced my opinions on many social and political issues. It is important to me to remember and pass on stories about the Hungarians' hardship to the next generations. I am not very interested in learning more about the suffering of the Hungarian people. Knowing about how Hungarians have suffered has shaped who I am today. Percent of variance

Event Specific VC

Regional Inclusive VC

Regional Exclusive VC

Table 4 Exploratory Factor Analysis for Regional Victim Consciousness and Event-Specific Victim Consciousness Items (Study 2).

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To examine whether regional and event-specific victim consciousness are distinct factors, we conducted an exploratory factor analysis on the 20 items (maximum likelihood extraction, promax rotation). Three cross-loading items were deleted. The exploratory analysis with an eigenvalue = 1 setting yielded four factors, and the scree plot also suggested four factors. The factor structure of the regional victim consciousness items replicated that from Study 1: The items assessing regional exclusive victim consciousness, regional inclusive victim consciousness, and personal centrality of in-group victimization loaded on three distinct factors (see Table 4). The event-specific victim consciousness items formed a separate factor. Unlike regional victim consciousness, the inclusive and exclusive event-specific victim consciousness items did not load on separate factors and were opposite ends of one scale. Higher scores on this measure indicate greater levels of perceived similarities between the suffering of refugees now and the Hungarian refugees in 1956. We therefore refer to this factor as event-specific inclusive victim consciousness. The final measures included four items assessing regional exclusive victim consciousness (α = .89), three items measuring regional inclusive victim consciousness (α = 0.83), four items for personal centrality of in-group victimization (α = .83), and six items assessing event-specific inclusive victim consciousness (α = .83). Outcome variables Affect toward refugees were measured with a feeling thermometer (Haddock, Zanna, & Esses, 1993), asking participants to indicate their overall feeling toward refugees, on a scale from 0 (extremely unfavorable) to 100 (extremely favorable). Support for anti-refugee policies was measured with two sets of items. First, we used the same five items as in Study 1 (α = .90) to assess support for increased border protection and military presence to prevent refugees from entering. The second set of eight items measured participants’ support of the more extreme policy of detention and criminalization of refugees (e.g., “Climbing the border fence or damaging it should result in criminal charges”; α = .94). The same three items as in Study 1 measured willingness for personal involvement in helping refugees (α = .87). To assess actual prosocial behavior towards refugees, we offered participants a chance to enter a raffle at the end of the survey and we informed the participants that one participant would win 10.000 HUF (∼€ 31; the average hourly wage in Hungary was €7.6 in 2017; Eurostat, 2019). After entering the raffle, we asked the participants the following question: “If you win the lottery, will you offer part or all of your money to MigSzol [“Migrant Solidarity Group of Hungary”]?” Participants could provide their answer by means of a yes or no choice format. If they answered yes, we also asked: “How much would you offer?” Participants had no reason to believe that they would be asked again to reconsider their choice if they won, and their answer therefore indicates actual donation behavior. The raffle was conducted after the data collection, with a random number generator. Control variables We used the same measures as in Study 1 to assess personal centrality of ingroup victimization (see above), ingroup glorification (α = .85) and attachment (α = .87), political ideology, and demographic variables. Additionally, we assessed trait empathic concern with four items (α = .78; e.g., “I am often quite touched by things that I see happen”) and perspective taking with five items (α = .72; e.g., “I believe that there are two sides to every question and try to look at them both”; Davis, 1983). Procedures Research assistants from two universities in Budapest used snowball sampling and personal contacts like in Study 1 to recruit participants. The participants first answered the demographic questions, then the regional and event-specific victim consciousness items, followed by the outcome variables (except the raffle), and other control variables (national identification, empathic concern, perspective taking). At the end of the survey, participants could enter their e-mail address in the raffle. Participants were then thanked and debriefed. Results We first examined correlations between the main variables (see Table 5, which also includes the means and standard deviations). Then we conducted hierarchical multiple regression analyses. In Step 1, we entered the regional victim beliefs and the control variables. This allows for comparing the findings of Study 1 and 2. In Step 2, we entered event-specific victim consciousness to test if it explained additional variance. Finally, to test the mediation hypothesis, we used the bootstrapping method recommended by Hayes (2018) to obtain bias corrected 95% bootstrap confidence intervals for the indirect effects (Model 4), controlling for the same variables as in the regression analyses. Regression analyses Regional exclusive victim consciousness predicted support for both anti-refugee policies in Step 1, even after controlling for political ideology, national identification, trait empathy and perspective taking. In Step 2, when inclusive event-specific victim consciousness was added, regional exclusive victim consciousness was no longer a significant predictor of support for anti-refugee policies, while inclusive event-specific victim consciousness predicted decreased support for anti-refugee policies (see Table 6). Similarly, and as expected, in Step 1 regional inclusive victim consciousness predicted positive affect toward refugees, as measured by the feeling thermometer (see Table 7). Unexpectedly however, the findings from Study 1 for personal willingness to help the refugees was not replicated. After adding inclusive event-specific victim consciousness to the model in Step 2, regional inclusive victim consciousness was no longer a significant predictor of positive affect toward refugees (as measured by the feeling 103

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Table 5 Means, Standard Deviations, and Pearson’s Correlation for Variables Used in Study 2. Variable

1.

2.

3.

4.

5.

6.

7.

8.

9.

10.

11.

12.

13.

1.Border protection 2.Detention 3.Personal Involvement 4.Affect toward Refugees 5.Regional Exclusive VC 6.Regional Inclusive VC 7. Victimhood Centrality 8.Event-Specific VC 9.Attachment 10.Glorification 11.Empathy 12.Perspective Taking 13.Political Ideology M SD

–

.83** –

-.53** -.52** –

-.76** -.77** .68** –

.56** .56** -.24** -.48** –

-.37** -.34** .19** .35** -.59** –

.37** .38** -.12 -.29** .38** -.15** –

-.48** -.52** .39** .47** -.35** .33** -.13* –

.44** .41** -.17** -.33** .33** -.12** .60** -.13* –

.61** .59** -.30** -.53** .66** -.43** .50** -.31** .58** –

-.28** -.37** .32** .35** -.20** .15** .04 −19** .05 -.13* –

-.25** -.31** .31** .32** -.19** .09 -.01 .21** .03 -.16** .48** –

3.51 1.86

3.52 1.80

2.34 1.37

45.07 27.03

3.02 1.48

5.00 1.24

4.05 1.45

3.66 1.25

4.89 1.66

3.01 1.39

5.57 1.08

5.27 1.00

.52** .56** -.35** -.56** .43** -.20** .45** -.25** .38** .45** -.21** -.11 – 3.91 1.35

Note: Border Protection = Support for increased border protection and military presence, Detention = Support for Detention and criminalization of refugees, Victimhood centrality = Personal centrality of ingroup victimization, Empathy = Empathic concern. Political ideology was assessed using a 7-point scale (1 = extreme left, 7 = extreme right). * p < .05. ** p < .01.

thermometer) either. However, and as predicted, inclusive event-specific victim consciousness predicted both measures of prosocial attitudes towards refugees, above and beyond the control variables. Mediation analyses To test whether event-specific victim consciousness mediated the effect of regional victim beliefs on the outcome variables, we used Hayes’ (2018) PROCESS Model 4, with 5000 bootstrap samples and 95% confidence intervals. We controlled for the same variables as in the regression analyses. The total, indirect, and direct effects are illustrated in Figs. 1–4. Supporting our hypothesis, the indirect effect of regional exclusive victim consciousness through event-specific inclusive victim consciousness on support for increased border protection and military presence was significant, b = .07, SE = .04, 95% CI [.00, .14]. Thus, the effect of regional exclusive victim beliefs on support for increased border protection and military presence was mediated by event-specific inclusive victim consciousness (see Fig. 1). The indirect effect of regional exclusive victim consciousness through eventspecific inclusive victim consciousness on support of detention and criminalization was also significant, b = .06, SE = .04, 95% CI [.00, .14]. The 95% confidence interval did not include zero, thus the effect of regional exclusive victim consciousness on support of detention and criminalization was mediated by event-specific inclusive victim consciousness (see Fig. 2). The indirect effect of regional inclusive victim consciousness via event-specific victim consciousness on attitudes toward refugees was significant, b = 1.33, SE = .46, 95% CI [.58, 2.41], indicating that the effects of regional inclusive victim consciousness were mediated by event-specific inclusive victim consciousness (see Fig. 3). For the second prosocial outcome, willingness to personally help the refugees, neither the direct effect of regional victim consciousness, nor the total effect were significant. However, the indirect effect of regional inclusive victim consciousness through event-specific inclusive victim consciousness was significant, b = .07, SE = .03, 95%CI [.03, .14]. The 95% confidence interval did not include zero, suggesting a significant indirect effect. According to Hayes (2018), an indirect effect can be different from zero even when the total effect is not, and thus this finding can be interpreted as evidence of mediation (see Fig. 4). Binary logistic regression: prosocial behavior (donations) toward refugees 158 participants entered their name into the lottery to win 10.000 HUF. 105 said that they would offer some or all of their reward to MigSzol, a civil society organization helping the refugees. Because of this dichotomous outcome (yes or no choice format), we used a binary logistic regression with the control variables used in previous analyses and the regional and event-specific victim beliefs as predictors. To capture effect sizes, we report standardized beta weights (β), Wald statistics, and Odds Ratios (OR). The results (see Table 8) indicated that inclusive event-specific victim consciousness and empathic concern predicted willingness to donate the reward to MigSzol. The other predictors were not significant. Because the subsample of those who donated was lower than the suggested sample size for correlational analyses (Schönbrodt & Perugini, 2013), we did not analyze the sum of donated money as an outcome variable. Discussion Results of Study 2 supported our hypotheses and either directly or conceptually replicated the findings of Study 1, with one exception (regional inclusive victim consciousness did not predict willingness to personally help the refugees). Even when controlling for important predictors, including trait empathy and perspective taking, regional victim beliefs still predicted attitudes towards 104

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Table 6 Hierarchical Regression Analyses Predicting Negative Attitudes Towards Refugees. DV 1: Support for Increased Border Protection and Military Presence Step 1 Variable Age Gender Place of Residence Level of Education Political Ideology Empathic Concern Perspective Taking Attachment Glorification Victimhood Centrality Regional Exclusive VC Regional Inclusive VC Event-Specific Inclusive VC

β -.05 -.03 .09 -.03 .24 -.10 -.11 .16 .23 -.02 .14 -.08

Step 2 SE .01 .19 .09 .09 .08 .09 .10 .07 .10 .08 .09 .09

β 95% CI [-.03, .01] [-.50, .25] [-.01, .33] [-.22, .13] [.19, .49] [-.35, .02] [-.39, -.01] [.04, .32] [.13, .51] [-.18, .13] [.00, .35] [-.29, .04]

p .27 .51 .06 .59 < .001 .07 .04 .01 < .001 .75 .05 .14

Model summary R2 = .512, F (12, 241) = 21.106, p < .01

β SE β 95% CI -.09 .01 [-.04, .00] -.02 .08 [-.43, .26] .09 .08 [.00, .32] -.03 .08 [-.21, .11] .21 .07 [.15, .43] -.09 .09 [-.33, .02] -.07 .09 [-.31, .05] .16 .07 [.05, .31] .21 .09 [.10, .46] -.02 .07 [-.17, .12] .12 .08 [-.02, .31] -.03 .08 [-.20, .12] -.29 .07 [-.57, -.29] Model summary R2 = .579, F (13, 240) = 25.420, p < .01

p .05 .62 .05 .53 < .001 .08 .15 .01 < .001 .76 .08 .61 < .001

DV 2: Support for Detention and Criminalization of Refugees Step 1 Variable Age Gender Place of Residence Level of Education Political Ideology Empathic Concern Perspective Taking Attachment Glorification Victimhood Centrality Regional Exclusive VC Regional Inclusive VC Event-Specific Inclusive VC

β .03 -.05 .04 .01 .28 -.16 -.13 .12 .24 .02 .13 -.05

Step 2 SE .01 .17 .08 .08 .07 .09 .09 .07 .09 .07 .08 .08

β 95% CI [-.01, .02] [-.53, .16] [-.09, .22] [-.15, .17] [.24, .52] [-.44, -.10] [-.42, -.06] [.00, .26] [.14, .49] [-.12, .17] [.00, .32] [-.23, .08]

p .46 .29 .42 .88 < .001 < .001 .01 .05 < .001 .77 .05 .36

Model summary R2 = .555, F (12, 241) = 25.053, p < .01

β SE β 95% CI -.01 .01 [-.02, .02] -.04 .16 [-.46, .17] .04 .07 [-.08, .21] .01 .08 [-.14, .16] .24 .07 [.20, .45] -.16 .08 [-.41, -.10] -.10 .08 [-.34, -.01] .12 .06 [.01, .25] .21 .08 [.11, .44] .02 .07 [-.10, .16] .11 .08 [-.01, .28] .01 .07 [-.13, .16] -.30 .06 [-.56, -.31] Model summary R2 = .628, F (13, 240) = 31.140, p < .01

p .90 .36 .37 .91 < .001 < .001 .04 .03 < .001 .71 .07 .85 < .001

Notes: Victimhood centrality = Personal centrality of ingroup victimization; VC = Victim consciousness; Empathy = Empathic concern. Political ideology was assessed using a 7-point scale (1 = extreme left, 7 = extreme right).

refugees and related policies. Specifically, regional exclusive victim consciousness consistently predicted support for anti-refugee policies, across two different measures, while regional inclusive victim consciousness predicted positive affect towards refugees (i.e., the feeling thermometer). Extending the findings from Study 1, we found that these effects were consistently, across all four outcome variables, mediated by event-specific inclusive victim consciousness, a measure of the perceived similarities and differences between Hungarian refugees’ suffering in 1956 and the current refugees. We developed this measure for this study and introduce it here for the first time. Further extending Study 1, we used a behavioral measure of donating to a refugee-aid organization and found that eventspecific inclusive victim consciousness also predicted this prosocial behavior. Historical events, particularly those pertaining to Hungarian victimization, are part of the political discourse in Hungary. Our results show that the specific historical analogy (Ghilani et al., 2017) with the ingroup victimization of Hungarian refugees in 1956 indeed is closely linked to group members’ attitudes and behaviors toward refugees. Thus, the debates around whether or not the suffering of the Hungarian refugees in 1956 and the situation of the present-day refugees are similar (Balogh, 2017; Hajnal, 2015) have important practical implications. In our study, perceived similarities in suffering between the in-group and the out-group predicted support of pro-refugee policies and prosocial behaviors, while rejecting these similarities predicted support for anti-refugee policies, including more extreme measures such as detaining refugees. The finding that event-specific victim consciousness mediated the effects of regional victim consciousness on attitudes and behavioral intentions towards refugees is in line with findings from other contexts, where the effects of more general perceptions of ingroup victimization (e.g., historical victimization of Jews) on conflict-related attitudes were mediated by more specific perceptions of ingroup victimization (e.g., victimization in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict; Schori-Eyal et al., 2014). In our research, the more general, more abstract regional victim beliefs were weaker predictors of attitudes and behaviors towards refugees compared to eventspecific victim beliefs. This makes sense, because the event-specific victim beliefs are more proximal to the specific outcome variables. Although our study focused on intergroup comparisons of victimization, rather than the mere strength of perceived 105

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Table 7 Hierarchical Regression Analyses Predicting Affect Toward Refugees. DV 1: Affect Toward Refugees Step 1 Variable Age Gender Place of Residence Level of Education Political Ideology Empathic Concern Perspective Taking Attachment Glorification Victimhood Centrality Regional Exclusive VC Regional Inclusive VC Event-Specific Inclusive VC

β .15 .01 -.01 -.01 -.37 .12 .17 -.07 -.24 .06 -.04 .13

Step 2 SE .16 2.76 1.29 1.33 1.13 1.40 1.44 1.04 1.46 1.15 1.30 1.24

β 95% CI [.16, .78] [-.5.14, 5.74] [-2.89, 2.18] [-5.18, .06] [-9.58, -5.11] [.11, 5.64] [1.67, 7.36] [-3.24, .86] [-7.55, -1.82] [-1.10, 3.44] [-3.24, 1.87] [.33, 5.22]

P < .001 .91 .78 .06 < .001 .04 < .001 .25 < .001 .31 .60 .03

Model summary R2 = .507, F (12, 231) = 19.803, p < .01

β SE β 95% CI .16 .15 [.20, .79] -.01 2.62 [-5.84, 4.50] -.02 1.22 [-2.85, 1.96] -.09 1.26 [-4.71, .26] -.34 1.10 [-8.97, -4.73] .12 1.33 [.23, 5.47] .14 1.37 [1.04, 6.45] -.08 .99 [-3.16, .73] -.20 1.39 [-6.64, -1.17] .05 1.09 [-1.19, 3.11] -.01 1.23 [-2.66, 2.19] .08 1.19 [-.73, 3.98] .26 1.07 [3.49, 7.70] Model summary 2 R = .560, F (13, 230) = 22.484, p < .01

p < .001 .80 .72 .08 < .001 .03 .01 .22 .01 .38 .85 .18 < .001

DV 2: Personal Involvement Step 1 Variable Age Gender Place of Residence Level of Education Political Ideology Empathic Concern Perspective Taking Attachment Glorification Victimhood Centrality Regional Exclusive VC Regional Inclusive VC Event-Specific Inclusive VC

β .20 -.08 -.15 -.09 -.28 .19 .17 -.03 -.18 .08 .13 .07

Step 2 SE .01 .16 .08 .08 .07 .08 .09 .06 .09 .07 .08 .07

β 95% CI [.01, .05] [-.56, .09] [-.35, -.05] [-.27, .04] [-.42, -.16] [.08, .39] [.07, .40] [-.15, .09] [-.35, -.01] [-.06, .21] [-.04, .27] [-.07, .23]

P < .001 .16 .01 .14 < .001 < .001 .01 .66 .04 .27 .13 .29

Model summary R2 = .314, F (12, 241) = 9.177, p < .01

β SE β 95% CI .24 .01 [.02, .05] -.09 .16 [-.57, .04] -.15 .07 [-.34, -.06] -.08 .07 [-.26, .03] -.24 .06 [-.37, -.12] .18 .08 [.07, .38] .14 .08 [.03, .35] -.04 .06 [-.15, .09] -.15 .08 [-.31, .01] .08 .07 [-.05, .20] .15 .07 [-.01, .28] .01 .07 [-.13, .15] .31 .06 [.21, .46] Model summary R2 = .389, F (13, 240) = 11.740, p < .01

p < .001 .09 .01 .13 < .001 < .001 .02 .61 .07 .25 .06 .86 < .001

Notes: Victimhood centrality = Personal centrality of ingroup victimization; VC = Victim consciousness; Empathy = Empathic concern. Political ideology was assessed using a 7-point scale (1 = extreme left, 7 = extreme right).

Fig. 1. Event-specific inclusive victim consciousness as a mediator of the effect of regional exclusive victim consciousness on support for increased border protection and military presence in Study 2. Path values represent unstandardized regression coefficients. CI = bias-corrected bootstrap confidence intervals. *p < .05, **p < .01, ***p < .001.

victimization in different contexts as in Schori-Eyal et al.’s (2014) study, both sets of findings point to the need to examine different layers of ingroup victimization with different reference points of collective victimhood, and how they relate to each other. Accordingly, a contribution and strength of the present study is to introduce event-specific victim beliefs and examine their relationship with regional victim beliefs. This extends previous literature that has focused on either global or conflict-specific victim beliefs (see Vollhardt, 2012a). Another strength of the present study is that it included a measure of actual behavior, and not only selfreported attitudes or behavioral intentions (see Doliński, 2018). However, we also note that the donation of a raffle prize in the future may differ from donation behavior of money already in hand or other prosocial actions, and future research should therefore use a 106

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Fig. 2. Event-specific inclusive victim consciousness as a mediator of the effect of regional exclusive victim consciousness on support of detention and criminalization of refugees in Study 2. Path values represent unstandardized regression coefficients. CI = bias-corrected bootstrap confidence intervals. *p < .05, **p < .01, ***p < .001.

Fig. 3. Event-specific inclusive victim consciousness as a mediator of the effect of regional inclusive victim consciousness on affect toward the refugees (feeling thermometer) in Study 2. Path values represent unstandardized regression coefficients. CI = bias-corrected bootstrap confidence intervals. *p < .05, **p < .01, ***p < .001.

Fig. 4. Event-specific inclusive victim consciousness as a mediator of the effect of regional inclusive victim consciousness on willingness for personal involvement in helping refugees in Study 2. Path values represent unstandardized regression coefficients. CI = bias-corrected bootstrap confidence intervals. *p < .05, **p < .01, ***p < .001.

more direct behavioral measure. Finally, this study directly or conceptually replicated and extended the findings of Study 1, portraying a consistent picture in the Hungarian context: regional and event-specific inclusive victim beliefs predict positive intergroup attitudes and behaviors, while regional and event-specific exclusive victim beliefs predict negative intergroup attitudes. General discussion The aim of this research was to investigate the relationship between beliefs regarding historical ingroup victimization and attitudes toward present-day refugees in Hungary. We hypothesized that participants expressing greater levels of exclusive victim consciousness— focusing on the uniqueness and distinctiveness of the in-group’s own suffering in the past—would support policies excluding and harming refugees in the present, while participants endorsing a greater degree of inclusive victim consciousness—focusing on the similarities between the in-group’s past and other group’s present suffering—would support pro-refugee policies and display prosocial behaviors towards refugees in the present. We further hypothesized that event-specific victim beliefs (i.e., historical analogies focusing specifically on similarities between the present-day refugees’ suffering and the suffering of the 200,000 Hungarians who left the country after the fall of the 1956 Revolution) would be stronger predictors of intergroup attitudes than the more general regional victim beliefs that do not specify the groups, times, or events for comparison. In both studies we found evidence supporting our hypotheses. In Study 1 we found that regional exclusive victim consciousness predicted support for increased border protection and military presence, while regional inclusive victim consciousness predicted support for pro-refugee policies and pro-social behavioral 107

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Table 8 Results of Binary Logistic Regression on Donation to Refugee Organization. Variable

Age Gender Place of residence Level of education Political Ideology Empathic Concern Perspective Taking Attachment Glorification Victimhood Centrality Regional Exclusive VC Regional Inclusive VC Event-Specific VC Model χ2 Cox and Snell R2 Nagelkerke R2

Donation β

SE

Wald

P

.01 -.44 -.02 .01 -.29 .56 .03 .02 -.28 -.08 -.08 -.10 .56 45.76 .27 .37

.02 .47 .22 .22 .20 .22 .24 .18 .21 .21 .23 .22 .19

.17 .85 .01 .00 2.06 6.50 .02 .01 1.73 .15 .11 .23 8.83

.68 .36 .91 .95 .15 .01 .89 .92 .19 .70 .74 .64 > .001

Note: Victimhood centrality = Personal centrality of ingroup victimization, VC = Victim consciousness. Political ideology was assessed using a 7point scale (1 = extreme left, 7 = extreme right).

intentions. In Study 2 we found that regional exclusive victim consciousness predicted support for increased border protection and military presence, and also support for detention and criminalization of refugees. Regional inclusive victim consciousness predicted positive attitudes toward refugees. In Study 2, the effects of regional victim consciousness were mediated by event-specific inclusive victim consciousness, which also predicted prosocial behavior towards refugees. This research extends existing research in several ways, both theoretically and empirically. First, previous research focused on global or conflict-specific inclusive and exclusive victim consciousness (for reviews see Noor et al., 2012, 2017; Vollhardt, 2012a, 2015). In some contexts, such as in Central Eastern Europe, these particular reference points may be less relevant, but the psychological symptoms, functions, and consequences of collective victim beliefs are still prevalent from historical experiences of suffering through occupation, territorial disputes, wars, and totalitarian regimes in the region (see Bar-Tal, Chernyak-Hai, Schori, & Gundar, 2009). We therefore used measures of regional and event-specific victim consciousness, where the reference point for comparison are other groups in the region, or a specific event of ingroup and outgroup victimization (in this case, the experience of Hungarian refugees in 1956 and refugees today). Future research should continue to consider the specific context and forms of collective victimization when choosing constructs and measures that are most suitable for the given context, rather than applying collective victim beliefs that have been studied in intractable conflicts or the aftermath of genocide to other, distinct experiences of collective violence and victimization. In considering the novel measures of victim beliefs that we introduced here, it is interesting to consider why the factor structures of the regional victim consciousness measure and the event-specific victim consciousness measure differed from each other. Consistent with previous studies (Cohrs et al., 2015; Vollhardt et al., 2016, 2019), the regional inclusive and exclusive victim consciousness items clearly loaded on separate factors, while the event-specific inclusive and exclusive victim consciousness items loaded on one factor, as opposite ends of the same scale. It is possible that the open-ended nature of the regional comparison that did not specify which group participants were to compare, versus the relatively concrete nature of the event-specific measure that asked participants about one specific comparison, explains this difference: When responding to the event-specific victim consciousness items, participants either saw similarities between 1956 and present-day refugees or not. Conversely, for the regional measure it is easier to have conflicting views about the similarities and differences between the in-group’s and other regional groups’ suffering, which could entail several comparisons with different groups or different events at different points of time (e.g., the Trianon Treaty may be seen as unique in the region, while the experience of Stalinist repression could be seen as shared with other countries in the region). Our findings clearly demonstrate that although the different levels of historical collective victimhood are connected, they are also distinct: The effects of the more general, regional victim beliefs were mediated by the more concrete, event-specific victim beliefs. The relatively low correlations between the regional and event-specific victim beliefs and the fact that they load on distinct factors shows that these are not only theoretically, but empirically distinct collective victim beliefs. This suggests the importance of assessing several different forms of comparative victim beliefs. Another strength and contribution of the present studies to the literature is that the findings were for the most part directly and conceptually replicated across two studies, and extended to include more extreme policies against refugees, as well as behavioral intentions and actual behaviors in addition to the attitudinal and self-report measures. Moreover, regional and event-specific victim consciousness predicted attitudes and behaviors towards refugees above and beyond a rigorous set of control variables (political ideology, national identification, personal centrality of in-group’s victimization, demographics, and trait empathic concern and perspective taking in Study 2). This allows us to rule out that the present findings merely reflect differences in how much people identify with their national group, with right-wing political ideologies, and/or their ingroup’s victimization. 108

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Limitations of these studies include that they were correlational and cross-sectional, meaning that causal inferences are not possible. There is experimental evidence that perceptions of past victimization influence cognitions and attitudes toward present-day events (e.g., Vollhardt, 2013; Warner et al., 2014; Wohl & Branscombe, 2008), but present-day attitudes and the need to legitimize certain political and social agendas may also drive beliefs about the past (e.g., Rimé et al., 2015). Specifically, participants who support anti-refugee policies could reject the idea that the past Hungarian refugees and the present-day refugees suffered in similar ways because of their attitudes toward refugees, and to justify their policy opinions. Furthermore, despite being community samples and not just student samples, the participants were on average young, well-educated, and mostly from bigger Hungarian cities. Future research should examine representative samples. Conclusion To conclude, beliefs about the in-group’s historical victimization in a different context is related to how group members react to present-day refugees. This finding is especially important in a context where the country’s political leader actively uses historical analogies to convey his political messages (Kareem, 2017), and where political leaders, public figures and journalists often use history in their interpretation of current events (e.g., Bayer, 2018; Janecskó, 2015; Joób, 2016; Kovács, 2016). Debates about similarities and differences between the historical suffering of Hungarians and the suffering of present-day refugees are ongoing and controversial in Hungary; and are important for understanding support for anti- and pro-refugee policies in Central and Eastern Europe, a region with particular importance for the current refugee crises. Ethics statement The research was reviewed and approved by the institutional review board of Eötvös Loránd University. All participants provided written informed consent before the study and were debriefed at the end of the research according to the established committee guidelines. This procedure was also followed in Study 2. The authors declare that research was conducted ethically, results are reported honestly, the submitted work is original and not (self-) plagiarized, and authorship reflects individuals’ contributions. Declaration of Competing Interest The authors declare that there are no potential conflicts of interest with respect to the research, authorship, and/or publication of this article. Acknowledgements This research was conducted within the framework of COST Action IS1205 “Social psychological dynamics of historical representations in the enlarged European Union.” The first author of the study was funded by the National Research, Development and Innovation Office (Grant Number: NFKI-K119433). Appendix A Complete list of all items used in Studies 1 and 2, translated into Hungarian and back-translated. The Hungarian version of all items is available from the first author upon request. Study 1 Regional victim consciousness (Vollhardt et al., 2019) 1 Exclusive victim consciousness 1 The harm Hungarians suffered is unique in Central and Eastern Europe’s history. 2 While other nations in Central and Eastern Europe (have been) harmed in the past and the present, the Hungarian experiences is overall much more severe. 3 Saying that the other Central and Eastern European nations’ experiences of suffering is similar to the Hungarian’s (experiences) is just wrong. 4 While all experiences of suffering are somewhat different, the Hungarian experience is truly unique. 5 There is no other nation in East Central Europe which went through the same tribulations as the Hungarians. 6 It is wrong to state that other East Central European nations were hit by / went through the same amount of tribulations as the Hungarians. 7 No other Central and Eastern European nation has suffered as much as the Hungarian people. 8 There is no suffering in the history of other East Central European nations which is comparable to the Hungarians’ suffering.

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1 Inclusive victim consciousness 1 Other nations in Central and Eastern Europe have been repressed/oppressed in similar ways as Hungarians. 2 Hungarians have a lot in common with other East Central European ethnic, national or religious groups who are/were kept under oppression. 3 Generally speaking, there are other nations in the Central and Eastern European regions that have a history of hardship like the Hungarians. 4 There are other Central and Eastern European nations that suffered as much as the Hungarian people. 5 The degree to which some other Central and Eastern European nations have suffered is comparable to how much the Hungarian people have suffered. 6 Despite some clear differences, the harm of other Central and Eastern European nations is similar to the Hungarian people’s experiences. 7 I tend to think or talk about the similarities between the Hungarian experiences of suffering and other Central and Eastern European nations’ experiences of suffering rather than about the differences. 8 Other East Central European nations have been harmed as much through their history as the Hungarians. 1 Personal centrality of ingroup victimization 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8

Knowing about the misdeeds against the Hungarians has influenced my opinions on many social and political issues. It is important to me to remember and pass on stories about the Hungarians’ hardship to next generations. One has to know about our suffering in order to understand us Hungarians. When I think about what it means to be Hungarian, I rarely think about the harms our nations had to suffer / live through. (reverse-coded) (To me) there are more important cues for defining the Hungarian culture and identity, than the past / historical grievances of our nation. (reverse-coded) I am not very interested in learning more about the suffering of the Hungarian people. (reverse-coded) Knowing about how Hungarians have suffered has shaped who I am today. It is very important (to me) to know about the historical suffering of the Hungarians.

1 Support for increased border protection and military presence 1 2 3 4 5

In my opinion, military conscription should be brought back in Hungary. Hungary's borders should be completely closed from refugees. In my opinion, military presence in Hungary needs to be increased. Hungary’s borders need to be protected by weapons. I agree with the necessity of the fence on the borders of Hungary.

1 Support for pro-refugee policies 1 2 3 4

We have to provide financial support for refugees. I support the work of civil society groups helping the refugees. It is our moral obligation to help the refugees. Hungary’s borders should be opened to people in need.

1 Personal involvement in helping the refugees 1 I feel myself personally responsible to help the refugees. 2 I am actively involved in helping refugees. 3 I would not like to be actively involved in helping refugees. (reverse-coded) National identification (Roccas et al., 2008, adapted to Hungarian by Szabó & László, 2014) 1 Glorification 1 2 3 4

Throughout their history the Hungarian nation has shown singular courage in many cases. Compared to other nations Hungarians are more intelligent. During their history Hungarians were acting more morally than other nations. The world would be a better place if other nations would be like Hungarians.

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1 Attachment 1 2 3 4

When I am abroad and hear Hungarian words, my heart starts beating faster. Every time I hear the National Anthem I become sentimental. Being Hungarian is an important part of who I am. I feel a strong bond to my country/Hungarians.

Study 2 Regional victim consciousness (shortened version, based on Vollhardt et al., 2018) 1 Exclusive victim consciousness 1 2 3 4

While all experiences of suffering are somewhat different, the Hungarian experience is truly unique. No other Central and Eastern European nation went through similar hardships as the Hungarians. No other Central and Eastern European nation has suffered as much as the Hungarian people. There is no suffering in the history of other Central and Eastern European nations which is comparable to the Hungarians' suffering.

1 Inclusive victim consciousness 1 Other nations in Central and Eastern Europe have been repressed/oppressed in similar ways as Hungarians. 2 The degree to which some other Central and Eastern European nations have suffered is comparable to how much the Hungarian people have suffered. 3 Despite some clear differences, the harm of other Central and Eastern European nations is similar to the Hungarian people’s experiences. 4 During their history, other Central and Eastern European nations have been harmed to the same degree as the Hungarian people. 1 Personal centrality of ingroup victimization 1 2 3 4

It is important to me to remember and pass on stories about the Hungarians’ hardship to next generations. I am not very interested in learning more about the suffering of the Hungarian people. (reverse-coded) Knowing about how Hungarians have suffered has shaped who I am today. It is very important to me to be aware of the historical sufferings of the Hungarians.

1 Event-specific inclusive victim consciousness 1 2 3 4 5

The refugees have been persecuted in similar ways as the Hungarian refugees who left in 1956. The degree to which the refugees have suffered is comparable to how much the Hungarian refugees in 1956 have suffered. Despite some clear differences, the harm the refugees’ experiences is similar to the Hungarian refugees’ experiences in 1956. The refugees have been harmed to the same degree as the Hungarian refugees in 1956. The hardships Hungarian refugees experienced in 1956 were different / distinct from what refugees today experience. (reversecoded) 6 While the refugees (have been) harmed, the Hungarian refugees' experiences in 1956 were overall much more severe. (reversecoded) 7 The refugees have not suffered as much as the Hungarian refugees in 1956. (reverse-coded) 8 The refugees' suffering is not comparable to the Hungarian refugees' suffering in 1956. (reverse-coded)

Attitudes toward refugees Please indicate your overall feeling toward refugees, on a scale ranging from 0 (extremely unfavorable) to 100 (extremely favorable) 1 Support for anti-refugee policies Support for increased border protection and military presence (see Study 1) Support for detention and criminalization of refugees 1 Refugees should be kept in places which are surrounded by barbed wire fences. 2 Refugees should be punished harshly if they enter to Hungary through the border fence. 3 I agree with the new 'push back law' which enables police to apprehend and push back any foreign national who entered the country irregularly and were within 5 miles of the state border. 4 Refugees should be sent back to their countries of origin, regardless of what they say about their situation there. 5 Refugees should be kept in closed centers. 111

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6 Climbing the border fence (or damaging it) should trigger criminal charges. 7 Refugees who are waiting for a legal decision about their asylum application should not be allowed to move freely in Hungary. 8 Juvenile refugees should not get special treatment. 1 Personal involvement in helping the refugees (see Study 1) 1 I would like to be actively involved in helping refugees. 2 I am actively involved in helping refugees. 3 I feel personally responsible to help the refugees. Prosocial behavior towards refugees You can take part in a lottery, and win 10.000 HUF (∼€ 31). However, considering the subject of our research, we would like to offer an alternative opportunity: If you win the lottery, you can give your entire prize or part of your winnings to the Migrant Solidarity Group (MigSzol) that helps the refugees. Would you like to offer part / all of your money to MigSzol (Migrant Solidarity Group of Hungary) if you win the lottery? If yes, how much would you offer? 1 National identification (see Study 1) Trait empathic concern (Davis, 1983) 1 2 3 4

When I see someone being taken advantage of, I feel kind of protective towards them. Other people’s misfortunes do not usually disturb me a great deal. (reverse-coded) When I see someone being treated unfairly, I sometimes don’t feel very much pity for them. (reverse-coded) I am often quite touched by things that I see happen. Perspective taking (Davis, 1983)

1 2 3 4 5

I sometimes find it difficult to see things from the other person’s point of view. (reverse-coded) I sometimes try to understand my friends better by imagining how things look from their perspective. If I’m sure I’m right about something, I don’t waste much time listening to other people’s arguments. (reverse-coded) I believe that there are two sides to every question and try to look at them both. When I’m upset at someone, I usually try to “put myself in their shoes” for a while.

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